Long TESLATrading Fam,
Today my indicator has signaled a BUY on $TSLA. The technicals align. M pattern looks to have completed at strong support (RED TL) and is bouncing upwards inside of a solid liquidity block. Buyers are stepping in. I'm in at $315 and will shoot for $430 (probably taking some profit along the way). My SL is currently $241 but will trail as we enter profit.
Best,
Stew
TSLDB trade ideas
TSLA bull run to $500 before the end of 2025Based on the recent breakout from the triangle pattern, it seems like Tesla is ready to start a bullish run to reach the previous all time high of $488 before the end of 2025.
Once it reaches that resistance level, $500+ will be possible for 2026.
If you decided to trade in Tesla for the upcoming months, check out the current support levels to pick a stop loss according to your Risk - Reward parameters.
Check if it can rise above 347.21
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(TSLA 1D chart)
The key is to determine which direction the price breaks out of the two support and resistance areas of 268.07-311.48 and 347.21-382.40.
For a step-up trend to occur, the price must remain above 334.09-347.21.
However, a step-up trend is highly likely only if the price rises above the support and resistance levels of 382.40 and 421.06 on the 1W and 1M charts.
Even so, a larger increase is likely if the price rises above the 334.09-347.21 range on the 1D chart.
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The 268.07-311.48 range also falls within the HA-High indicator.
Therefore, it's important to remember that the current position is not a buy position, but rather a sell position.
However, for new buys, it's best to initiate them when support is found near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, if possible.
Therefore, when the 268.07-311.48 range acts as a support zone, it can be considered a buying opportunity.
However, since it's within the HA-High indicator zone, trades should be executed with short and quick responses.
The key volatility period is around October 7th, but before that, we should check the movements around September 5th and September 12th.
At this time, the trend is likely to be determined by which direction the price moves: the 268.07-311.48 range or the 347.21-382.40 range.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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TSLA: AI + Technicals Meets Macro TailwindsAI Forecast (VolanX Protocol)
Current Price: $340.01
30-Day Target: $387.70 → +14.0% upside
Institutional Trade Plan:
Entry: $340.01
Stop Loss: $314.45
Targets: $346.81 / $387.70
Risk/Reward: 1.87:1
Model Agreement: 8/9 bullish
Technical Structure (4H Chart):
Broke above a triangular consolidation, now testing equilibrium from below.
Key support levels: $313.60 / $301.30 (discount zone).
Resistance / extension zones lined up at:
First: $368–$369
Extended: $400–$402 (1.618–2.618 fib levels).
Macro Catalysts & Market Context:
Fed Rate Sentiment Improving: Powell hinted at possible September rate cuts; markets rallied with Tesla leading, rising 6%.
Value Sense Blog
+6
Barron's
+6
Investors
+6
Investopedia
+1
EV Tax Credit Flexibility: New IRS guidance allows buyers to secure the $7,500 credit via contracts before Sept 30, potentially boosting demand.
Investors
+1
Mixed Q2 Fundamentals: Q2 saw declining deliveries & regulatory credits; Musk warned of “rough quarters” ahead, but emphasized AI & robotaxi growth.
Investors
+6
Investors
+6
New York Post
+6
Geopolitical Risks & Tariffs: Tariff pressure, fading EV credits, and sales underperformance in key regions keep long-term risks present. Analyst targets range widely.
Investopedia
MarketWatch
Value Sense Blog
Investors
Probabilistic Outcome Mix:
Base Case (50%) → $346–$368 (near-term resistance test aligned with AI target)
Bull Extension (25%) → $387–$402 if macro tailwinds persist and structure sustains breakout
Bear Risk (25%) → Breakdown below $340 could retest $313–$301
Trade Setup Breakdown:
Long Entry: $340
Stop: $315
Take Profit #1: $368
Take Profit #2: $388
Option: scale into $400s if breakout momentum holds
Why It Matters:
This setup represents AI-driven momentum meeting technical trend alignment and favorable macro catalysts. If Fed signals, EV policy flexibility, and optimism around Tesla’s AI/autonomy can power continued upside, $387–$400 becomes very plausible. However, macro risks and execution hurdles need monitoring.
TESLA's Make it or Break it WeekHello I am the Cafe Trader.
Today we are taking another look at Tesla. Everyone knows what a beast this has been in the past, I am going to prep you on what to do when awakens.
As of today, we sit under the last strong seller before the 400's, breaking this and holding (a close above on a Friday) would make a strong case to test highs (minimum).
Overall, I still think there is a strong case for the downside, but this seller determines everything. This is due to the time we have been in the top of the range. So here are your two scenarios
Green Scenario
If Tesla can push through the strong seller zone (roughly 350–365) and actually close above it, then bulls would gain full control. That opens the door for a continuation move toward 400+.
If this happens, I will publish some trade ideas with a new chart.
Red Scenario
If This Seller continues to flush out these buyers, this could spark a large reaction to the downside. In that situation we would be looking for a move back into the big buyer zone around 290. A failure there could drag us all the way to the conservative trend line near 270.
Personally I lean short biased in the next 2-4 weeks, Very bullish over the next few years.
Hope you enjoyed, please DM or comment with questions or another stock you would like analyzed.
Happy Trading
@thecafetrader
LONG | TSLA NASDAQ:TSLA
TSLA is pressing against a key confluence zone $352–$356 (TP1), aligning with daily and weekly resistance. A confirmed breakout could open the path toward $367 (TP2) and $404 (TP3) in the medium term.
Supports: $326 / $318 – must hold to maintain bullish momentum.
Bias: Bullish if above $326; consolidation or pullback likely if rejected at $356.
A monthly close above $367 would confirm a long-term cup breakout, projecting toward the $500 area over the next cycles.
$TSLA Financials: Q2 vs Q1🏛️ Research Notes
A climb to even sub-ATH levels signals profound market irrationality, implying Tesla not only recovered its losses but has also reversed a widespread, likely permanent, client boycott across its key markets (US, EU, Canada). The closer examination of Q2 fundamentals ahead of the Q3 2025 release would be a great help.
⚖️ Q2 vs Q1
Revenue Decline : Revenue fell -12% YoY, automotive sales down -16% → confirms weakness in U.S., EU, and China.
Gross Margins : Erosion continued as price cuts + BYD competition intensified.
Operating Income : Dropped -42% YoY, reflecting higher expenses + lower leverage.
Net Income : Down -16% YoY → analysts’ earnings downgrades justified.
Cash Flow & Liquidity : Free cash flow fell, inventory buildup worsened liquidity strain.
Balance Sheet : Inventory levels rising as deliveries lag production.
Short-term : Bounce faces major resistance near supply zones — failure to break higher could trap late buyers.
Mid-term: With Q2 confirming Q1 risks, the bull case weakens unless Q3 shows clear recovery in demand and margins.
Long-term: Competitive pressures (BYD, Chinese EVs, European slump) + high CapEx needs keep pressure on liquidity and valuation.
🛟 What to Watch in Q3
Delivery Numbers : Any rebound in U.S., China, or Europe sales will be critical to reversing revenue decline.
Margin Stabilization : If Tesla can offset price cuts with cost savings or improvement in production efficiency
Cybertruck Performance : Demand recovery and reduced recall issues are needed to restore confidence in new models.
Inventory Levels : Watch if inventory growth slows - otherwise more discounting and margin erosion likely.
Cash Flow Trends : Improvement in operating cash flow would ease liquidity fears.
CapEx & R&D : How much Tesla spends on batteries, autonomy, and AI vs. how much cash it burns will be closely watched.
Institutional Sentiment : If big funds divest, rallies may keep fading at resistance.
Tesla’s bounce still looks more like a retail-driven relief rally than the start of a sustainable reversal. Q2 earnings show deterioration across key financial metrics. In Q3, watch whether Tesla can stabilize sales, margins, and cash flow failure to do so keeps the path of least resistance to the downside.
The Anatomy of a TSLA Retracement TradeBased on a detailed analysis of Tesla's recent price action, a compelling bearish thesis suggests that the stock is poised for a significant retracement. The current market structure indicates that the recent rally may be unsustainable, necessitating a retest of a critical support level to re-establish a more stable foundation.
The Bearish Hypothesis: Retracement to Trendline Support
The core thesis is that the price is set to retrace and test the integrity of the ascending diagonal support trendline. This is not an indication of a full trend reversal, but rather a high-probability correction. T
This corrective phase will likely see the price descend to the lower boundary of the channel. A retest of this key support trendline is a common and healthy technical pattern.
Trade: A short position could be considered upon a clear rejection at the recent highs or upon a decisive breakdown of a minor support level, with the primary profit target being the ascending diagonal support trendline.
TSLA SELL AT $426! Retracement to $372 imminent TSLA was a perfect ascending bullish triangle, yes, I drew the Elliott Wave wrong but got the calls right at $300 ($339 first target) and bounce off support at $324.80 ish (separate post). Remember the $7500 EV credit expires soon so there will likely be a pull forward of purchases this quarter which could temporarily juice the stock. We could see all time highs but first we must retrace once target of $426 is reached.
Tesla Financials: Q1 2025The market is currently staging a short-term rally - essentially a speculative mean reversion bounce as a reaction to -55% crash from all-time high. This move appears driven largely by retail traders seizing what it perceives as a rare opportunity to accumulate an oversold "large-caps".
While retail participation and opportunistic capital are supporting the current bounce, this alone is insufficient to sustain a full recovery. As the price approaches higher levels, particularly near key supply zones, it will likely encounter significant resistance, resulting in reversal.
Let's not forget the fact that figures in Tesla’s Q4 '24 financial report initiated bearish sentiment among institutional investors which resulted in market crash. Similarly, the upcoming Q1 earnings report presents a clear downside risk, as the significant events throughout this quarter will inevitably be reflected in the financial figures!
Anticipated impact of significant developments on Tesla’s Q1 2025 Financial Statements
🛑 Revenue Decline
• U.S. Market Weakness: Lower-than-anticipated vehicle sales in the U.S. directly reduce automotive revenue.
• Severe European Slump: A significant 76% sales decline in Germany and weakness elsewhere in Europe will notably reduce international revenues.
• Chinese Market Challenges: A substantial 49% sales drop in China will negatively affect one of Tesla’s crucial growth markets.
• Cybertruck Weakness and Recalls: Reduced demand and multiple recalls of Cybertruck models further erode revenue growth.
• Resale Value Decline and Trade-Ins: Increased vehicle trade-ins indicate lower demand, causing inventory buildup, discounting pressures, and further sales reductions.
🛑 Gross Margin Erosion
• Price Reductions and Sales Incentives: Competitive pressures and lower demand likely forced Tesla to reduce vehicle prices and offer incentives, compressing gross margins.
• Increased Competition from BYD: BYD’s advanced battery technology (providing 400 km of range in just 5 minutes of charging) pressures Tesla to increase R&D spending or cut prices further, negatively affecting margins.
• Production Challenges (Supply Chain and Battery Issues): Ongoing global supply chain disruptions and difficulties scaling battery production significantly increase manufacturing costs, further squeezing gross margins.
🛑 Increased Operating Expenses
• Recall Costs and Legal Expenses: Vehicle recalls, along with lawsuits related to product issues such as phantom braking, will significantly increase warranty provisions, legal fees, and related operating expenses.
• Protests and Vandalism Costs: Public backlash and vandalism necessitate additional expenditures on security, facility repairs, and public relations initiatives.
• Employee Turnover Costs: Departures of key personnel result in increased recruiting, training, onboarding, and severance expenses.
🛑 Net Income and EPS Impact
• Analyst Earnings Downgrades: Already-reduced EPS projections by major analysts suggest Tesla will likely report earnings below expectations, reflecting revenue shortfalls and elevated expenses.
• $1.4 Billion Financial Discrepancy: If confirmed or unresolved, this discrepancy could lead to substantial asset impairments, restatements, or write-downs, negatively impacting net income and earnings per share (EPS).
🛑 Cash Flow and Liquidity Pressures
• Lower Operating Cash Flows: Reduced revenue coupled with rising operating costs (including recalls, lawsuits, security, and PR spending) severely diminish cash generated from business operations.
• Increased Capital Expenditures: Additional CapEx is likely required to address battery production bottlenecks and delays in autonomous driving technology development, resulting in elevated investing cash outflows.
• Investor Divestment and Stock Volatility: Negative investor sentiment could lead to costly equity financing conditions if Tesla needs to raise capital, adversely affecting financing cash flows and liquidity.
🛑 Balance Sheet Risks
• Rising Inventory Levels: Weak sales combined with continued vehicle production may lead to increased inventory levels, reducing cash and potentially requiring markdowns or provisions.
• Debt and Liquidity Challenges: Deteriorating credit metrics or covenant breaches could make refinancing existing debt more expensive or complicated, negatively impacting Tesla’s financial stability.
TESLA : Short Signal Explained
TESLA
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short TESLA
Entry Point - 396.08
Stop Loss - 406.37
Take Profit - 374.02
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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TSLATechnical Analysis (Weekly Chart – TSLA, NASDAQ):
Current Price: $395.94 (+12.85% in the latest session), showing strong bullish momentum.
Support Zone (Buy Area): The chart highlights an attractive buying range between $300–330, where multiple moving averages converge, acting as dynamic support.
Stop-Loss: Placed at $200, which sits well below the long-term trendline and previous key support. This ensures risk control in case of a major reversal.
Target Zone: The bullish projection is toward the $608–650 area, aligning with previous resistance levels and a strong supply zone from 2021–2022.
Trend & Structure:
The stock recently broke out of a consolidation pattern (A–B–C–D) with strength, supported by high volume and upward momentum.
Long-term moving averages (200-week shown in black) are flattening and turning up, signaling a potential multi-year bullish reversal.
If price sustains above $330, the bullish scenario remains valid with the probability of continuation toward $600+.
Outlook:
Short-term: Possible minor retracement to $330–350 before resuming the uptrend.
Medium- to Long-term: Bullish trend continuation toward $608–650.
Risk: A breakdown below $300 would weaken the bullish case, and a fall under $200 would invalidate it completely.
📌 Summary:
Tesla shows a strong bullish setup on the weekly chart. Entry zone is $300–330 with stop-loss at $200. The first major target is $608–650, offering an excellent risk–reward ratio for long-term investors.
TSLA UPDATE 13 SEP 2025I dont care what price does next. I have exited from Tesla at $390. I want it to go moon and I will buy it back again whenever I want but wont hold here or make new entries here. There is a big monthly supply zone here so I wont be touching Tesla now & wait for further price action
TSLA has got the momentum ^.^Brother Elon is back on business. 1 trillion bonus Yummy!
Technicals are favor Tesla Stock,
Large Greenbar has broken out of resistance.
More investors are joining the rally, This may break previous highs.
Come and make some money.
Risk ? Don't worry about it because its 1 Trillion.
Tesla Near Term SpeculationBuilding on the flag formation from the past 3 years, its possible an rising wedge could form. Very early days and highly speculative, but if price plays out somewhat like my chart, an ascending wedge could form. Indicating that Tesla may have hit a near/mid term high and can't won't break through for a few years, with several implied price crashes going into 2026 and 2027.
Economic conditions and the apparent slow down in sales, would also support the technical analysis with macro fundamentals.
Very curious to see how things play out, again, highly speculative, just wanted to post to remind myself to keep and eye on this. The potential volatility is presenting interesting trades ahead.
Breakout time $TSLA$570 inbound
The start of the Energy abundance and Robotaxi era is upon us. Autonomous robots will transport everything within the next 10 years.
Optimus wave will follow shortly behind over the next 5 years.
TAM Potential: 10X autonomous transport.
How high this eventually goes is almost laughable, time to sit back and watch compound growth and all its magical glory.
Tesla Wave Analysis – 12 September 2025- Tesla broke resistance area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 414.50
Tesla recently broke the resistance area located at the intersection of the resistance level 360.00 (which has been reversing the price from February), resistance trendline of the daily up channel from July and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from December.
The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from June.
Tesla can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 414.50 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
You will ask yourself, "how did he know Tesla would do that"?I wrote this on my July 29th chart description (below):
"Price action really has less to do with the news making Elon a hero, then a villain and then back and forth...but moreso to do with price action patterns that just keep repeating". Since then, the pattern has played out exactly as anticipated, and my 1st take profit target just hit (+22%).
July 29th chart:
Now the question remains, will Telsa hit my next target range (T2). Although it is a much larger range than my T1, I will monitor price action closely and use TA to get out near the top before the next major retracement.
Let me know if you're into Tesla and if you are interested in me charting the top of this run.
May the trends be with you.
Tesla - consolidation patternUsually, whenever the price gives a breakout, we will think the price will reverse or have a pullback. Sometimes the same trend will continue after a small consolidation. I am seeing similar type of consolidation here.
Buy above 390 with the stop loss of 387 for the targets 383, 396, and 399. We can expect resistance or some profit booking around 400.
Always do your analysis before taking any trade.