XPEV, We need to be careful now !What is the most probable scenario for XPEV?
XPEV's move from 22.73 to 47.98 has recovered 50 % of its major drop from 74.49 to 22.73. Mentioned drop is showing a remarkable 5 down going waves which can be labeled as wave A. ( wave 1 is also possible but we skip this alternative for now). last up going wave ( from 22.73 to 47.98 ) can be just wave A of B which means there may be another up going wave ( Wave C of B) after a correction down to 35, 32 or even 28 USD ( Wave B of B) corresponding to 50 % , 61.8 % and 78% Fibo Retracements respectively. Possible targets for next possible up going wave are shown on the chart. Please note that whole correction ( in the case of having a large ABC correction) may end at 13 USD !. Also, we need a trade below 39.71 to be confident about having at least a correction down to mentioned support prices.All these explanations are briefly shown on the chart.
Stochastic and RSI indicators are showing a bearish divergence with price which could be an strong bearish signal.
It is worth to note that stock may go down below last major low (22.73) without any additional up going wave ( I think it has low probability) therefore, we do not go long without any strong bullish signal in proposed support prices.
I have to emphasize that in terms of timing, chart is just schematic drawing So I kindly ask you to disregard dates on the chart.
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XPEV, Our Proposed Prediction on 6th Jul 2021 is still working !Are we market makers ? Of course not! Any hidden information we had? Of course we did not . How could we predict a stock path 7 months ago?
Is there still any doubt about possibility of Mid term and Long term prediction of a stock or the market?
First, lets look at what we saw on the chart seven months ago ! and our prediction :
Trading view's page of XPEV is full of long ideas and it is very difficult to see any bearish publication . How we could achieve such a success in prediction which is still valid after 7 months? Answer is by using ELLIOTT WAVES .
We do not claim that XPEV surely continuous it's path as we predicted, but at least we had a prediction which so far has been valid for 7 months. We did some similar successful prediction for SHOP, ETSY, SQ, BTC at ATH and so on. This publication is not for admiration for ourselves ( Of course we had also some painful failures ). It is to encourage others to start thinking about power of Elliott Waves.
As far as we know, Elliott waves is the only tool which enables us to make predictions . We provided some of our achievements here and in the related ideas. Surely you can find many more more more successful and powerful prediction made by famous Elliott waves masters .
Good Luck every one.
XPEV (XPeng Motors) Long IdeaIf the general sentiment of the market improves a little and moves towards correction, this Chinese carmaker will be a good option in the coming days.
Short to medium term strategy
The first Chinese carmaker to add an automated driving system.
Technical Bollish Engulfitg --> Await confirmation and enter.(breaking through the recent high candle)
XPEV AnalysisPrice is playing out according to my analysis. Right now, price is making a spring according to the Wyckoff accumulation schematic. From here, I'm expecting price to break market structure to the upside. If the bearish POI at 18.18 holds, then we should be looking at a downtrend, invalidating the Wyckoff accumulation schematic.
XPEV AnalysisPrice played out according to what was expected last week. Right now, if this is a Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we should see price breaking market structure to the upside. We also do see volume increasing on the last down move, unable to push price down. I want to see a break to the upside with volume for confirmation for longs.
$XPEV - Severely oversoldXPEV has been severely oversold. The stock hit fib extension of 200% at $15.07. The stock can bounce from here and head back to $21 with the overhead resistance at $18.
Target 1 - $18
Target 2 - $21
Risk - unable to get pass $18.
Disclaimer: Not investment advice.
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Such a Nice Short Term TradeXPeng Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets smart electric vehicles in the People's Republic of China. It offers SUVs under the G3 and G3i names; four-door sports sedans under the P7 name; and family sedans under the P5 name. The company also provides sales contracts, maintenance, super charging, vehicle leasing, insurance agency, ride-hailing, technical support, automotive loan referral and auto financing, music subscription, and other services. XPeng Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Severely undersold stock - Buy the Fear!
XPEV AnalysisPrice played out beautifully as analyzed in the previous weeks. My first analysis on 21 July call for a decrease in price to take the selling climax at 18.01, at 30% drop in price so far. Currently price is very near the selling climax at 18.01. However, it's good to note that price has already grabbed sell-side liquidity. We could see a potential retracement up before we take the lows at 18.01.
XPEV: TRENDSI ATS CONFIRMED, THIS WILL RUN TO 22s.Ticker Symbol: $XPEV
️Timeframe: 4H
️TRIPLE BOTTOM
️Investment Strategy: LONG
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
TRENDSI ATS MONEY MOVEMENT SHIFTING UP : BULLISH
LINEAR REGRESSION + TRENDSI: AT THE BOTTOM, WHICH IS AT THE SUPPORT
RSI OVERSOLD AND STOCHASTIC SHOWING BULLISH MOVEMENT.
CONFIRMATION I AM WAITING: TRENDSI ATS GREEN LINE WITH GREEN DOT
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XPEV AnalysisPrice is playing out as analyzed previously. My expectation for the price is unchanged. Price is on a downtrend and is currently reacting to the bearish POI at 34.46. The price is also in Phase B of the Wyckoff accumulation schematic. Price is currently on a downtrend, taking out the sell-side liquidity built. I expect the price to grab the liquidity at 18.01 and create a spring for a possible up move.
XPEV AnalysisPrice is on a downtrend and is currently reacting to the bearish POI at 34.46. We do have a small fair value gap at 36.92 that could be filled.
The price is also in Phase B of the Wyckoff accumulation schematic. Price is more likely to go down and take out sell-side liquidity built. I expect the price to grab the liquidity at 18.01 and create a spring for a possible up move.
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XpevAfter trending up this rising wedge here we have finally seen some rejection. This could be gearing up for another drop lower if XPEV cannot pop above 33$ and hold we are in for another leg lower. Bearish rising wedge. Break down 70% of the time. Probabilities are high for this to slip and lose support. Be cautious. Prepare shorts Target 25$ and 18$
Fundamentals on XPEV over NIOIt was apparently last year but having such little history, in a nascent market, the data points couldn't be trusted, yet. However I took a large position in Xpev over NIO for a few reasons.
1) They are not competitors, from a price point perspective. Xpev makes a car by my estimate 90% as good as NIOs and 80% as good as Tesla, but they sell for 50-60% of the cost. Nio is a direct competitor of Tesla. Being a start-up funding/attrition is key and fighting Tesla is capital intensive.
2) Speaking of, Xpev is copying more than innovating, though slilght innovations on the things they copy exist. It's cheaper and faster to copy than it is to innovate. NIO made a bold move adopting a battery swap format. It could work in time but that's the problem, in time. It's a capital intensive and geographically disadvantaged strategy to build swap stations, though it's innovative and clever to offer cars at sale prices minus the battery, and leasing the battery to the customer. I like that recurring revenue and lower entry point potential, but again it's a battle of attrition and NIOs strategy is so capital intensive that even it's short term prospects are murky. Xpev is simple. Simple i like.
3) As you can see in the chart this is playing out on the balance sheet and revenue. Xpev from a unit sales perspective has been catching up to NIO, I attribute much of that to their price point and marketing. But also from a balance sheet perspective they are burning less cash so while margins are lower per unit sold, their capex is also lower compared to NIO to balance that out in favor of XPEV.
4) Bonus reason, XPEV is focused. Mainly China/Asia customer base with no plans to expand to NA. Currently testing select parts of Europe. Again, simple is good. Transport logistics, local regulations, taxes/tariffs all create levels of complexity, complexity increases cost an lowers margins. Simple is good.
I see XPEV out performing NIO throughout 2022. Although I do believe should the overall EV market expand fast enough, NIO will do just fine and a rising tide will certainly float their boat as well.






















