NVDA trade ideas
NVDA ShortThe broader market structure on NVDA remains bearish, with price putting in lower highs since failing to hold above $180.27. The recent Change of Character (CHoCH) around $164.08 marked a significant shift to bullish momentum, but the market failed to create a clean higher high above $180, leaving the larger bearish structure intact. This failure to break structure to the upside suggests we may be seeing distribution forming at the current levels.
Supply is sitting just above current price in the $178–179 range, where price previously rejected sharply and formed a consolidation top. This is a strong supply zone since sellers stepped in aggressively the last time price was here. Below, there is a well-defined demand zone between $167–164, where buyers stepped in with strength and caused a sharp rally. However, the rally lost steam as it approached supply, which indicates that demand may not be strong enough to absorb another large selloff.
Price action in the marked region is consolidating just below supply, showing choppy, sideways behavior. This is often a sign of absorption before a potential breakdown. If price rejects this supply zone and breaks below intraday support, we could see a move down toward $168, and possibly deeper into the lower demand zone.
The current trade bias is bearish, with an expectation of continuation to the downside after supply rejection. A sustained move and close above $180.50 would invalidate this view and signal potential continuation higher. Momentum is favoring sellers, as price has struggled to break above resistance despite multiple attempts, and wicks on the top side indicate rejection.
Trend Reversal (Drummond Geometry)Trend Reversal 🔄 Spot and trade sharp market reversals using Drummond Geometry.
1. What It Is
A trend reversal is a sharp, sudden change in market direction.
Defined as 3 consecutive closes on one side of the PL Dot immediately following a trend in the opposite direction.
Can also occur from congestion , so always be open to reversal setups
First image shows the congestion entrance bar
Second image shows the bars that have a close on the same side of the PLdot, thus confirming a a trend-up
Third image shows the immediate shift (reversal)
And finally the trend down
2. Market Context
The market alternates between trend runs and congestion .
Bars are categorized as:
Trend bars : 3 closes on the same side of the PL Dot.
Congestion entrance : A close on the opposite side of the PL Dot after a trend.
Congestion action : Oscillations back and forth across the PL Dot.
Congestion exit : Trend emerging from congestion.
3. Signs of a Trend Reversal
PL Dot pulls back into bar range.
A 5-9, 5-2, 5-1, or 6-1 line appears in the preceding bar.
Resistance/support against the old trend holds; levels in the new trend direction break.
The original block level may be violated (not mandatory).
4. The Cornerline
A diagonal line linking the isolated high/low of congestion entrance with the trend reversal bar .
It’s the bar that confirms a sharp directional shift.
Specifically, it’s the first bar to close on the opposite side of the PL Dot after a trend, followed by two more bars closing on that side (making the full reversal pattern).
It often violates the original block level from the previous trend (though that’s not required).
This bar is linked with the congestion entrance bar via the cornerline—a key diagonal that helps confirm if the reversal has real strength.
So, think of it as the pivot bar that kicks off the new trend, showing that momentum has flipped hard enough to change market structure.
Rarely broken in a true reversal.
High-energy reversals influence all following congestion structure.
5. Anticipation Tips
Watch focus time period (FTP) within higher time period (HTP) envelopes.
Daily reversals often align with:
Daily congestion entrance signs.
Monthly cycles or c-waves pushing weekly structure.
PL Dot pressure at higher levels.
📌 Trader’s Edge:
Trend reversals are fast, decisive moves often starting from strong HTP energy zones. Look for PL Dot pullbacks, strong block levels, and cornerlines to confirm. Once validated, they can define the next major swing or cycle.
NVIDIA Stock Near Support, Bullish Trend AheadNVIDIA stock is currently trading in close proximity to a critical technical support level. This positioning comes within the context of a firmly established and ongoing bullish trend, characterized by a consistent pattern of forming higher highs and higher lows on its price chart. This sequential upward movement is a classic and powerful technical indicator, suggesting that buying pressure continues to outweigh selling pressure at each successive market cycle.
The prevailing market sentiment and technical structure suggest that this upward momentum is likely to persist in the upcoming trading sessions. Based on this constructive chart pattern, analysts project a potential ascent towards a significant target on the higher side, with the market poised to challenge the $183.00 per share level. This represents a key resistance point that, if breached, could signify a continuation of the bullish phase.
Conversely, on the lower side, the $164.00 price level is identified as a crucial support zone. This is the floor that bulls are expected to defend vigorously to maintain the current positive trajectory. A decisive break below this support could potentially invalidate the near-term bullish outlook, making it a essential level for risk management. Therefore, while the bias remains tilted towards the upside with a clear target in sight, the $164.00 support acts as a vital demarcation line for the trend's integrity.
$NVDA rolling over. $SMH looks vulnerableSemis have been the toughest pillar of this bull market. The Semis ETF NYSE:SM has been making new highs and new lows with occasional consolidation. NASDAQ:NVDA has been instrumental in the dominance of NASDAQ:SMH in most of the thematic ETFS. The ratio chart $NVDA/ NASDAQ:SMH is also showing signs of weakness and rolling over hard. Last time NASDAQ:NVDA lost momentum it fell 40%. Will the history repeat? History usually rhymes. So, when we see weakness in the largest stock in SP:SPX the indices will also roll over. The momentum weakness is visible in the RSI.
If we believe that the previous highs act as support, then we can expect the stock to drop to 150 $. This aligns with the 1.0 Fib retracement level. This can mark a 17% downturn from here. The next support is around 120 $. That will mark a 33% pull back which is not unusual for $NVDA. But these price level will be great accumulation point for the stock. The consolidation in NASDAQ:SMH and NASDAQ:NVDA was predicated by me on Aug 3. But our long-term target remains intact with NASDAQ:NVDA @ 250 and NASDAQ:SMH @ 315.
Verdict: NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:SMH looks vulnerable here. Price consolidation more likely providing good entry points in $NVDA. Long term target still holds.
You wanna bet against NVDA? Go ahead. Not me, though.This is now my 7th idea for NVDA. It's been a while, and I don't really know why. I guess maybe it seems tiresome posting ideas about the same stocks over and over again. But you know what isn't tiresome? Making money on those same stocks over and over again.
The yellow circles represent the entries for my previous ideas. Those trades were made during one of the worst 4 month stretches for NVDA in a LONG time. It lost about 19% for buy and holders during that time. I won't make you go back and data mine the results of my trades in that span. Here are all 12 lots I traded in those 6 ideas:
+8.1% in 6 trading days
+9.90% in 5 trading days
+14.50% in 3 trading days
+4.89% in 1 trading day
+0.74% in 1 trading day
+0.50% in 1 trading day
+1.80% in 1 trading day
+2.30% in 2 trading days
+3.40% in 1 trading day
+8.80% in 1 trading day
+2.60% in 9 trading days
+12.31% in 4 trading days
I trade equal dollar lot sizes so those 12 trades produced a total non-compunded return of just under +70% WHILE the stock was falling 19%. That's not self-promotion, that's a prelude to what comes next.
I'm not afraid of the stock dropping from here. If I was, I would not make the trade. The reality is that the way I trade actually works better when stocks move sideways or are falling than when they are in strong uptrends. Since April, my algo has only generated 5 signals on NVDA. I've only traded 2 of them before this, but all 5 are marked with white arrows. Add those to the ones from previous ideas and we are looking at a total gain of +92% or so since November.
While the most recent signal prior to this one is a loser SO FAR, it actually presents a better opportunity. Historically, the returns on the 2nd entry (adding to an existing trade) are MUCH better than the initial entry returns. Luckily, I didn't trade that most recent signal, so I get to try to grab more juice with less squeeze.
I won't lie, if employment falters after that inflation read we got today, it could be the beginning of a rough period for stocks. But I also know that virtually nobody can predict macro with any degree of success, least of all me. I'd also rather hitch my wagon to NVDA than to the vast majority of stocks in a generally overpriced market.
Add to all that the fact that they are pulling in over $500m a DAY in revenues, roughly 50% more than a year ago - and Wall St. is sad about that, apparently.
The stock also is resting RIGHT on near term support and there is more close by, which makes me take this trade enthusiastically. A word of caution, though. If the whole market goes down, NVDA will too and that could lengthen the time it takes to close here. I only trade the stock, so time isn't really an issue for me. For someone trading short dated options, it would be a disaster if this runs for a while.
My long entry price is 174.18 at the close today. I can and will add to the position tactically if good opportunities present themselves and I will update this idea whenever I add or sell lots.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NVIDIA: Rally Stalling?After Nvidia initially drew closer to our beige Target Zone between $150.09 and $139.58, the stock was recently pushed higher once again. Therefore, we still see a 40% chance that a new high for beige wave alt.III could emerge above resistance at $184.11. However, our primary view is that price has already entered wave IV, which should extend downward into the aforementioned beige zone. Since we expect a strong rally during wave V, this price range presents an attractive entry point for long positions, with a stop that can be set 1% below the lower boundary of the zone. Looking ahead, beige wave V should extend up to the blue Target Zone between $227.38 and $260.60, where it should complete the larger waves (V) in blue and in lime green.
NVDA 2HourTime frameNVDA 2-Hour Snapshot
Current Price: $170.76 USD
Previous Close: $168.31 USD
Day Range: $166.74 – $170.97 USD
52-Week Range: $139.34 – $200.00 USD
Volume: 170,370,750
VWAP: $169.67 USD
Market Cap: $1.1 Trillion
🔎 Technical Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 39.44 — Neutral
Moving Averages:
5-period: $169.68 — Sell
10-period: $174.59 — Sell
20-period: $177.06 — Sell
50-period: $172.58 — Sell
100-period: $150.61 — Buy
200-period: $139.34 — Buy
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): -0.91 — Buy
Stochastic Oscillator: 20.33 — Neutral
Commodity Channel Index (CCI): -119.52 — Buy
Average True Range (ATR): 4.93
📈 Market Sentiment
Pivot Points:
Resistance: $175.00 USD
Support: $165.00 USD
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $175.00 USD could signal a move toward $185.00 USD.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below $165.00 USD may lead to further downside.
Overall Bias: Neutral, with mixed signals from moving averages and momentum indicators.
Nvidia (NVDA) 2025+ Catalysts Updated: Analyst Views September🚀 Nvidia (NVDA) 2025+ Catalysts & Risks: Analyst Views — Updated September 2025
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📝 Summary Outlook (September 2025)
Nvidia remains at the center of the global AI boom, with dominant GPU share, a strengthening networking/software moat, and multi-year sovereign and enterprise buildouts driving demand. Q2 FY26 confirmed strong momentum, while Q3 guidance points to continued growth. The main risks lie in tariff policy, China licensing, supply chain tightness, and valuation sensitivity. Street consensus remains bullish, with targets in the $207–$211 range and a Strong Buy bias.
🔑 Key Catalysts Driving Nvidia’s Stock Growth (2025+)
1. 🏆 AI Chip Dominance — Score: 10/10
Nvidia still commands ~90%+ of data-center AI accelerators, with CUDA/NVLink lock-in keeping switching costs high.
2. 🏗️ Surging Data Center Demand — Score: 10/10
Hyperscalers remain in an AI “build” cycle. 2025 data-center CapEx is approaching ~$300B, with Nvidia reporting record $41.1B Data Center revenue in its latest quarter.
3. 🌐 Enterprise & “AI Everywhere” Adoption — Score: 8.7/10
Companies across industries are rolling out AI assistants, copilots, and retrieval-augmented applications; Nvidia benefits via GB200 NVL72 racks and RTX-based inference at the edge.
4. 🤝 Strategic/Channel Partnerships — Score: 8.9/10
Cisco is integrating Spectrum-X into networking solutions, while HPE has expanded its Nvidia “AI factory” offerings—broadening reach into enterprise and hybrid AI buildouts.
5. 🚗 Automotive & Robotics — Score: 8.4/10
Auto revenue grew ~70% Y/Y; DRIVE Thor shipments have begun, and Nvidia’s Jetson/AGX Thor and robotics platforms are expanding into industrial automation.
6. 🧑💻 Software & Subscriptions — Score: 8.6/10
Nvidia’s AI Enterprise, DGX Cloud, CUDA-Q, and TensorRT deepen recurring, high-margin revenue and increase developer lock-in.
7. 🌎 Omniverse, Digital Twins & Industrial AI — Score: 8.2/10
Ansys, Siemens, and other industrial software vendors are embedding Omniverse into simulation suites, accelerating adoption of “digital twins” and simulation AI workflows.
8. 🛜 Networking & Photonics — Score: 8.8/10
Spectrum-X Photonics enables co-packaged optics for exascale “AI factories,” improving bandwidth and efficiency while giving Nvidia more end-to-end control.
9. 🧪 Relentless Roadmap (Blackwell → Rubin) — Score: 9.0/10
Blackwell Ultra is ramping into 2025, with the Rubin architecture slated for 2026—sustaining Nvidia’s upgrade cycles.
10. 🌍 Sovereign & Global AI Buildouts — Score: 8.5/10
Europe, the Middle East, and India are launching sovereign AI projects. Saudi-backed Humain alone has committed to tens of thousands of Blackwell chips for 2026 buildouts.
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📈 Latest Analyst Recommendations (September 2025)
• Street Stance: Strong Buy/Overweight remains dominant. ~85% of analysts rate NVDA a Buy; avg 12-mo PT ~$207–$211.
• Recent Calls: Multiple firms reiterated Overweight/Buy, with price targets up to $230.
• Common Bull Case: Nvidia’s accelerator lead, software moat, sovereign/enterprise AI pipeline, and expanding networking portfolio.
• Common Cautions: Premium valuation, competition from custom silicon, and export/tariff risk.
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🗞️ Latest Events & News (Aug–Sep 2025)
• Q2 FY26 results (reported Aug 27, 2025): Revenue $46.7B (+56% Y/Y); Data Center $41.1B; Blackwell shipments +17% Q/Q; buyback program boosted by $60B.
• Q3 FY26 guidance: ~$54B (±2%) revenue.
• Networking push: Spectrum-X Photonics unveiled; Cisco partnership expanding enterprise deployments.
• Omniverse OEM deal: Ansys to embed Omniverse tech within its simulation platforms.
• Sovereign AI momentum: Saudi Humain centers to deploy 18k+ Blackwell chips starting 2026; UAE and India also ramping large-scale AI initiatives.
• Ecosystem investing: Nvidia continues selective investments in AI startups, strengthening CUDA adoption.
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🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Tariffs & Export Controls — September 2025 Update
• Tariff truce extended (Aug 2025): Current tariffs remain at ~30% U.S. on Chinese imports and ~10% reciprocal from China. Next decision point: Nov 10, 2025.
• Supreme Court review: The Court will hear a case challenging U.S. executive authority on tariffs this fall.
• China export licensing: U.S. has begun granting licenses for Nvidia’s H20 China-compliant GPUs. Advanced Blackwell exports remain restricted without further approvals.
Impact on Nvidia: Truce reduces near-term disruption, but future tariff or licensing changes remain key risks. China sales are limited to compliant GPUs with lower margins.
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⚠️ Key Negative Drivers & Risks (Updated)
1. 🇨🇳 US–China Tech Policy
Tariff truce is temporary; licensing decisions and court rulings keep China exposure uncertain.
2. 🏛️ Regulatory/Legislative Overhang
Proposals like the GAIN AI Act could impose stricter controls on exports and prioritize domestic deployments.
3. 🏭 Supply Chain Bottlenecks
Advanced packaging and HBM memory remain tight despite expansions—potential bottlenecks for shipments.
4. 🧮 Competitive Threats & Custom Silicon
AMD, Intel, and hyperscaler-designed accelerators continue to advance, potentially eroding Nvidia’s hyperscale share.
5. 🏷️ Valuation & Expectations
Nvidia trades at high multiples; any slowdown or guidance miss could trigger volatility.
6. 💵 Customer Concentration
Top cloud giants still account for a large share of revenue; CapEx pauses or custom chip adoption would materially impact results.
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Nvidia Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 090925Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 168/61.80%
Chart time frame:B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress:A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find an entry-level position. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of the slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over the 61.80% level, that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, TradingView provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with the fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill of to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low points of rising stocks.
If you prefer long-term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day
NVIDIA Testing Downtrend — Breakout Could Unlock UpsideNVIDIA has been trading in a corrective downtrend after its recent highs, with price compressing under the red trendline. If this downtrend breaks, a strong bullish move upward could follow, but key supports below remain critical if sellers extend pressure.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Current price: 143.04 EUR (XETR).
Price is consolidating under the downtrend line, keeping short-term bias cautious.
Immediate supports: 141.40 (short-term) and 139.44 (intraday).
A break of the red trendline would flip momentum bullish.
🛡️ Support Zones & Stop-Loss (White Lines):
🟢 141.40 – Last 15m Support (High Risk)
Weak intraday defense.
Stop-loss: Below 139.44
🟠 130.84 – 4H Support (Good Entry)
Major demand zone.
Stop-loss: Below 128.2
⚪ 128.34 – Macro Base
Strong final floor if deeper correction plays out.
🔼 Resistance Levels:
🟥 Downtrend Line (Red)
The key resistance. A break above → signals bullish reversal.
Psychological resistance: 145.00
🧭 Outlook
Bullish Case: Break above trendline → upside momentum resumes, targeting 145+.
Bearish Case: Rejection under trendline + loss of 141.40 → opens path to 139.44 and 130.84.
Bias: Neutral to bullish — watching for a confirmed trendline breakout.
🌍 Fundamental Insight
NVIDIA’s latest earnings disappointed the market, with slowing revenue growth and concerns about sustainability of its AI-driven boom. Profit margins remain high, but weaker guidance has triggered selling pressure and fueled the current downtrend.
Bearish pressure: Revenue slowdown + post-earnings profit-taking.
Bullish support: Long-term AI leadership and strong market position keep investors interested on dips.
✅ Conclusion
NVIDIA is testing a critical downtrend line after weak earnings triggered a pullback. A confirmed breakout could reignite the bullish trend, but failure and a break below 141.40/139.44 opens the way toward deeper supports at 130.84.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
NVDA gravity is strong....$140NVDA is heading towards the death cross (SMA200) and doesn't seem like much will change that at this point. The economy is doing horribly, despite a few small wins. Even the lower interest rate (25/50 basis points) is too little too late, when most of the S&P is already trading below 200SMA. There is a massive overheating of AI Tech stocks that are highly concentrated, and a massive correction is coming. Follow CAPE and PE ratios historically, this time won't be different! Best of luck....
$NVDA: Wave PropertiesResearch Series
Documenting regularities:
Half-way through bullish phase draws distinctive pattern (stops there, corrects a while, and tackles the direction in refreshed state)
After heavy drops it scales out in distinctive way
When stretched - also fits its internal cadence
Alternative scenario with similar scaling laws
Lowered fractal patterns to emphasize on cycles only (temporal aspect)
AI GAIN Act: A Shot in the Foot for the Chip Industry?By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The debate over Western leadership in artificial intelligence once again centers on Washington. The new AI GAIN Act, integrated as part of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), establishes that any chip with performance above 4,800 TOPS will require an export license. The measure also stipulates that semiconductor manufacturers must prioritize deliveries to U.S. companies before exporting advanced chips abroad. Framed as a strategy to reinforce national security and curb China, the legislation has sparked alarm across the industry. In short: if U.S. companies are waiting for chips, China and other countries move to the back of the line.
Nvidia raises the alarm
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA.O), the undisputed leader in GPUs for AI, has warned that the law would stifle global competitiveness and slow innovation in artificial intelligence. According to the company, there is currently no domestic supply shortage that justifies restricting access for foreign clients. The criticism recalls the controversial AI Diffusion Rule, pushed by the Biden administration in early 2025 and eventually revoked before coming into force. At the time, restrictions also aimed to control the export of chips and AI models but were discarded for being excessively rigid.
Impact on the semiconductor sector
The reach of the AI GAIN Act goes beyond Nvidia:
• AMD, with its growing exposure to AI accelerators, faces similar risks in its international operations.
• Intel, with a stronger domestic presence, may be less affected, as its profile aligns with the strategic goal of boosting local production.
• Broadcom and Qualcomm, highly dependent on global client networks, would face tighter constraints on commercial flexibility.
The most likely outcome is a double-edged sword: ensuring the U.S. always has priority in the supply chain, but at the cost of undermining the global business model that sustains sector margins. In short: the risk is that the cure ends up being worse than the disease, slowing global competition.
Technical analysis of Nvidia
Nvidia’s stock remains close to record highs after holding above USD 164 yesterday and closing at USD 168.31. Price action shows the loss of the 50-day moving average and movement toward the 100-day. A clear trend reversal has not yet materialized, even though the RSI is in oversold territory at 39.44, while the MACD is shifting into negative territory, crossing into the lower part of the histogram.
Another relevant factor is a price bell that has moved strongly between USD 152.89 and USD 126.84, with its Point of Control (POC) around USD 138.17, slightly below the accumulation zone that fueled the rally to all-time highs. The ActivTrades US Market Pulse currently signals Extreme Risk-On conditions in U.S. markets, highlighting a phase of exuberance on Wall Street where macro or geopolitical risks seem ignored. This new law could act as a catalyst for sector pullbacks.
If the current support at USD 164.58 and the next level at USD 152.89 fail, a return to the POC would be likely. On the other hand, if prices hold and consolidate, a new rally toward highs is possible. Such regulatory moves can trigger trend shifts, but if the market absorbs them, upside momentum could resume. From a wave structure perspective, bullish waves remain intact, suggesting this may be only a temporary pause.
• Resistances: All-time high at USD 184.48
• Supports: 164.58, 152.89, and POC at 138.17
• Indicators: RSI at 39.44, signaling oversold and potential consolidation
• MACD: Negative territory
• Moving averages (50/100/200): No trend change yet, though the 50-day is approaching the 100-day
• ActivTrades US Market Pulse: Extreme Risk-On
Conclusion: Trump vs. AI
The Trump administration’s protectionist measures aim to secure national access to silicon and reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, in order to safeguard U.S. leadership in AI. However, Nvidia’s warnings—echoed by the broader sector—underscore fears that overregulation could erode the international competitiveness of American tech giants, especially against China and other emerging innovation hubs. In this race for AI dominance, building walls may end up slowing down your own runners.
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
NVDA Support and Resistance Lines Valid from July 1 to 31st 2025Overview:
These purple lines act as Support and resistance lines when the price moves into these lines from the bottom or the top direction. Based on the direction of the price movement, one can take long or short entries.
Trading Timeframes
I usually use 30min candlesticks to swing trade options by holding 2-3 days max. Anyone can also use 3hr or 4hrs to do 2 weeks max swing trades for massive up or down movements.
I post these 1st week of every month and they are valid till the end of the month.
Nvidia - the bigger pictureNVIDIA is in a short-term correction within a healthy long-term uptrend
In the short term, NVDA is undergoing a healthy correction, pulling back toward the $150 area—a level close to July’s low. Such a retracement is well within normal bounds and may offer an attractive entry point for those bullish on the stock’s longer-term trajectory.
Looking at the medium and long term, the technical and fundamental picture remains firmly bullish. The stock is still riding a strong uptrend supported by its leadership in AI, solid earnings, and innovation-driven growth.
Critically, if NVDA closes a weekly candle decisively below $150 (i.e., below the July low), it would no longer fall into the "healthy correction" category and could signal a deeper technical shift—one that warrants increased vigilance.
Why this makes sense:
Healthy pullback zone: The $150–July low area represents a typical retracement level, likely serving as support before a continued climb higher.
Long-term strength remains intact: Broad trend dynamics and fundamentals are still supportive of further upside
Weekly close below $150 is key: Only a breakdown on the weekly timeframe would prompt a reassessment of the trend’s integrity.
What I’m Watching Next:
Break Above $173
A daily candle closing above $173 resistance would serve as a trend continuation signal, suggesting renewed bullish momentum and likely reopening the move higher toward previous highs.
Breakdown Below $165
Conversely, a close under $165 would most likely extend the correction toward $150, marking a deeper retracement into the support area.
NVIDIA Has it bottomed??NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) broke last week below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 4 months (since May 06). That was perceived as the bullish trend's strongest Support and rightfully so technically.
The next level to watch as a Support is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was the level that held and led the stock to its previous peak during the last strong bullish trend of October 31 2023 to June 20 2024.
As you can see, there was a situation similar to today's where the price again broke below the 1D MA50 during the uptrend but kept the 1D MA100 intact and rebounded. Still, it managed to touch the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, there might be potential for one more weekly Leg down to $155.00 (Fib 0.236) before recovering but this would also most likely mean breaking below the 1D MA100. This is doubtful but not impossible but still there are higher probabilities of a rebound sooner.
A strong indicator that is in Support of this is the 1D RSI, which just touched its 2-year Support Zone, a level that has always been a 'Buy' whether short or long-term. As far as a Target is concerned, the 2024 Channel Up peaked on the -0.382 Fibonacci extension, which is at $245.00.
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NVDA: The AI Market’s Early Warning System🚨 NVDA: The AI Market’s Early Warning System
Summary :
NVIDIA just shook the market a little. When NVDA moves, the whole AI sector reacts. Here’s why the levels on the chart matter, and how I’m playing it.
Idea :
NVIDIA is not just another stock, it’s the heartbeat of the AI trade. When it shows weakness, the entire sector gets nervous. The marked zone on the chart can work as a first entry , while the blue support below is a stronger area if price dips further.
But here’s the risk : losing those levels would put NVDA in trouble, and that’s when AI stocks across the board could follow.
Why does NVDA matter so much?
• It’s the leader of the AI narrative.
• Its valuation is sky-high, which means expectations are huge.
• Competition is catching up (AMD, Intel, even custom chips from big tech).
So, do we stay long?
Yes, trend is still bullish, just like with Bitcoin. But that doesn’t mean we go all in. Better to stay long with caution, clear stop levels, and exit plans ready.
Conclusion :
NVDA is basically the canary in the coal mine for AI. If it keeps flying, the sector stays strong. If it falls, the warning is clear. Trade it with respect!!
AI proves i was right about NVDAI used Gemini AI to alayze my previous videos and the results was as following: Fundamentally; the price wasat its fair value, and technically; the price was at a reversing point.
This is my thoughts and ideas about the stock, do your math before trading.
Good luck luck to you all
Markets Titan
NVDA is Near it's TopHello I am the Cafe Trader.
Today we’re looking at NVDA.
This is the first time I’ve shared a Fibonacci study with you.
The way I’ve mapped it is simple — start from the beginning of the bull run, and anchor it to the 61.8% retracement of the pullback. From this we can calculate where tops are typically found. (I stumbled upon this method trading with another trader who only used Fib's. I pointed this out to him, and we both got quiet...)
As of now, NVDA Is nearing the top of a channel, and close to the top of our FIB Extension. This is where rallies tend to stall, and the reaction here will determine if this becomes a temporary pause or a full reversal (unlikely).
Red Scenario
If we get rejection in this zone, NVDA could pull back into the demand area around 164–170. That’s the level where I’d expect buyers to step back in.
Longer term, I see NVDA as still bullish, but needing to cool down in the short term. Adding at 164 can be an aggressive way to continue to stack your long term.
Thanks for reading, as always Happy Trading!
@thecafetrader
ID: 2025 - 0178.26.2025
Trade #17 of 2025 executed.
Trade entry with 10 DTE.
This is a 100% purely directional short earnings play. I believe NVDA is going to be a huge miss tomorrow after the market closes, and I want to have a few days to let the market digest the news. These options expire Friday 9.6.2025, and if NVDA closes anywhere below 169 at expiration, this will be a 7R trade win.
Happy Trading!
-kevin