SPY Stuck Below Downtrend Resistance. TA for Aug. 6SPY Stuck Below Downtrend Resistance – Sellers Still Pressing
Market Structure (1H View)
* SPY continues to trade inside a descending channel, with repeated failures near the upper trendline around $641–$644.
* Recent price action shows a lower high rejection followed by consolidation under resistance, signaling a cautious market tone.
* The macro downtrend remains intact unless bulls can break and hold above the descending trendline.
Key Price Levels
* Immediate Resistance: $631 (local reaction high)
* Major Resistance: $641–$644 (trendline + prior supply zone)
* Support Zone: $619–$620 (key demand zone)
* Deeper Support: $603–$605 (previous low and psychological support)
Indicators
* MACD: Recently flipped bearish with red momentum bars increasing — suggests momentum is shifting back toward sellers.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold bounce attempt possible, but currently still near the lower range.
* Trendlines: Price remains capped under the descending resistance line.
Current Bias
SPY is struggling to sustain bullish momentum after the recent push into resistance. Sellers are defending the upper channel, keeping pressure on the downside toward $620.
Scenarios to Watch
🟢 Bullish Case:
* Break & close above $631 with follow-through volume → retest $641–$644.
* Needs strong buying interest to flip the macro trend bias.
🔴 Bearish Case:
* Failure to reclaim $631 + sustained weakness could send price back toward $620 support.
* If $620 breaks, risk increases for a sharper drop toward $603–$605.
Trade Ideas (Not Financial Advice)
* Short Bias: Look for rejection near $631 or the trendline; target $620, then $605 if breakdown accelerates.
* Long Setup: Only if price reclaims $631 convincingly and breaks the $641–$644 resistance zone.
📌 Final Thoughts
SPY remains bearish-biased inside a descending channel. Bulls need a decisive breakout above $641 to change sentiment; otherwise, sellers will continue targeting $620 and potentially lower.
