Trade ideas
TeslaFriday was a rough day for anyone that was long...pretty much anything lol. There were a few tickers like MP that posted a green day, but they were far and few between. Tesla was no exception to this and closed down over $22. This should not have come as a surprise for anyone though. Maybe the magnitude in which the market turned downwards, but not that it did. I have been saying for 2-3 weeks that the top was near. that being said, although price tanked the way that it did, we technically do not have the confirmation needed for a top. Do I think it likely we have a top in place? Yes, I do. However, one cannot definitively say it is in for a fact. The absolute confirmation doesn't come until we can breach $368.33 unfortunately.
We will get clues and data pointing to a top on the way down though. The first thing I want to point out is that we have officially breached the last TWO wave 4's of a lesser degree. This in itself is a very good sign the top is in. Also, MACD made a new local low. When you look at the yellow fibs tracking the possible abc down, the 1.382 is just below that minor A wave top. This means over half of the standard target area for minute ((c)) of minor A is below the minor A high.
Another thing I want to point out is that in the overnights, Robinhood is showing Tesla trading @ $423 currently, and has raised as high as $425. This could be pointing to a couple things. The first is that the minute ((c)) wave is just subdividing into a smaller 3-wave pattern that will ultimately end within the target box to conclude minor A wave. The other is that Friday's low was the minute ((a)) wave low with ((b)) currently underway. Then lastly, it could be pointing to my ALT turquoise count that suggests another high to the low $500's is needed.
I do not like the turquoise count, but I cannot rule it out with 100% certainty yet, so it stays for now. The count that I favor is the white count, and ((c)) being carved out in three waves. Hopefully we get some clarifying data tomorrow, but if not, we should get some this week. For now, we continue observing. Should you not be able to help yourself and want to enter into a trade...use TIGHT stops. I am not a gambling man, so I will remain on the sidelines. Ultimately, I believe it is only a matter of time until we see price back into the $100's...
TSLA Week Ahead - ShortTSLA looks like a classic post-rally consolidation after that sharp pop from late September lows around $340. The candlesticks show solid volume on the upside thrusts (those red-to-green hammers mid-September), but we're seeing some profit-taking wicks lately, with the price hugging that rising EMA channel (orange line) around $410 support. That unfilled gap down at $396-$402 (from early October open?) is screaming "magnet" if we get any broader market weakness—gaps like that on high-beta names like TSLA often fill on light-volume Fridays, especially with no major catalysts this week.
The gap is likely to close 70% of the times in 30 day span.
What to Expect by EOD Friday (Oct 17)
No earnings till Oct 22, so this week's all about macro vibes (Fed chatter, CPI print Wed) and TSLA-specific noise like Robotaxi buzz or delivery whispers. Q3 deliveries hit 462k on Oct 2 (beat estimates), so that's baked in—focus shifts to affordable model teases.
Base Case (60% odds): Sideways grind to $415-425. We're in that expected move band of ±6% (~$388-438 from here). Light volume mid-week could keep us coiling in the channel; that gap stays open unless we dump on risk-off. Analysts are meh short-term (avg target $361, but that's 1Y noise), but one shop just hiked to $483. I'd fade any spike above $420 for a quick scalp—RSI's overbought on 1H.
Bull Case (25% odds): Push to $430+. X crowd's frothing—folks calling ATH break by 10/17 on "unstoppable momentum" and 5Y consolidation snap to $500. If CPI undershoots and Elon tweets FSD gold, we tag resistance. One forecast pegs exactly $425 EOW.
Bear Case (15% odds): Gap fill to $400. Volatility spikes if yields rip higher or China EV FUD hits (ZEV credit chatter ending soon). That purple MACD histogram's flattening—watch for divergence.
TESLA: Long Signal Explained
TESLA
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long TESLA
Entry - 413.27
Sl - 406.92
Tp - 427.53
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Tesla (TSLA) - Weekly Battle Before The BreakoutTicker : NASDAQ:TSLA
Timeframe : Weekly
Bias : Neutral (Awaiting breakout confirmation)
Range : $410 - $470
🧠 MARKET CONTEXT
Tesla is stuck in a wide weekly range as macro uncertainty and earnings expectations collide.
Buyers defend the $410 zone while Sellers keep rejecting $470 - a classic coiling phase before expansion.
🔎 TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
* Structure: Choppy / Distribution phase ( failed breakouts, heavy wicks, indecision )
* Resistance Zone: $465-$475 ( needs clean close above for breakout confirmation )
* Support Zone: $410-$425 ( critical area maintaining bullish structure )
* Major Support Below: $320-$360 ( long term value area where buyers historically stepped in )
📈 SCENARIOS
🟢 Bullish Case:
* Weekly close above $470 with strong volume = breakout signal.
* Targets : $500+ zone, potential retest of 2024 highs.
🔴 Bearish Case:
* Weekly close below $410 = structure break.
* Targets : $360 - $320 zone.
⚪ Neutral / Range Play:
* Between $410 - $470, range strategies work best (fade extremes, tight risk).
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT
* The FED's higher-for-longer stance keeps pressure on growth stocks.
* Q3 deliveries were strong, supporting long term sentiment.
* Competition & margin compression (China & Europe) remain risk factors.
* Tech sector volatility + geopolitical headlines amplify TSLA's swings.
📊 WEEKLY OUTLOOK SUMMARY
* Short Term (2-4 weeks) : range bound between $410-$470 - watch for volume spikes / breakout confirmation.
* Medium Term (1-3 months) : direction depends on Fed & earnings - macro + delivery data key catalysts.
* Long Term (Q1 2026+) : bullish bias intact if fundamentals hold - expect volatility during macro tightening.
💬 FINAL TAKE
Tesla is coiling between $410 and $470. Whichever side breaks first will likely define Q4's direction. Watch weekly closes and volume confirmation - "The Big Move Is Loading"
TSLA Short1. May/June Inside Bar: Broke to the upside on September with no re-test of break.
a. Higher timeframes take longer for this to re-test.
b. I have found that 18 days is an average re-test, but this is not 100%.
2. Daily chart shows pullback, but its extremely important to understand that the weekly and monthly show bullish momentum.
3. I have started a TSLQ short position adding slowly, with TSLA shares targeting ATH's.
4. The target is for TSLA to move back into the 5% buffer, where I will start looking for a long position. The inside bar is usually re-tested. If bullish momentum is still there, which the weekly and monthly still show, then the 5% buffer and 25% quadrant are entry zones. However, if something changes, then 50% quadrant should be the target.
Happy trading!
TSLA: ShortNASDAQ:TSLA ⚡ Coiling up in a symmetrical wedge right under equilibrium — a textbook indecision zone before expansion.
Still trading below premium structure → bias remains bearish unless we see a clean breakout and hold above 434.5.
Volume contracting, RSI midline hovering → pressure building for next leg.
🎯 Breakdown targets: 427 → 422 → 416
🚀 Bull case invalidation: Close above 434.5, targeting 444–450
🧠 VolanX DSS Bias: Bearish continuation, awaiting volatility trigger
#TSLA #VolanX #SmartMoney #LiquidityZones #PriceAction #AITrading #WaverVanir
Not Investment Advice
Why Most Prop Traders Fail (Even the Skilled Ones)When speaking with Prop Traders, we have found the issue was not about
bad setups; it’s emotions under pressure that is the problem
Fear after a loss. Greed after a win.
That’s when discipline slips and accounts die.
Here’s what helps:
Before each session, ask ?
“Would I take this trade if I weren’t trying to prove something?”
This one question has saved more accounts than any indicator
I’ve been helping traders stay calm when it matters most.
If you’ve ever blown up knowing exactly what you should’ve done, DM me and I’ll show you what’s been working.
Breakout Incoming!Tesla remains within a well-defined channel range, consolidating near lower channel support on declining volume, which reflects healthy consolidation after prior momentum. The recent action has formed a symmetrical triangle, with price compressing between rising support and descending resistance — a classic setup for a volatility squeeze and potential breakout.
Despite short-term weakness, TSLA has consistently held above prior support levels within the channel. With bullish sentiment building ahead of earnings, it’s unlikely the stock breaks below existing support (~$416–$420).
The key resistance to watch is at $455, aligning with the upper boundary of the current structure. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger a move toward $470, which coincides with the previous high and marks a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
Notably, the price breakout between September 11 and September 22 offers a useful reference; that move demonstrated TSLA’s ability to accelerate rapidly once volume returns and resistance levels are cleared - this stock is a freight train once it gets moving.
Given the technical compression, low-volume consolidation, and improving sentiment, I’d expect a breakout as early as tomorrow or early next week, especially as we lead into earnings.
Key Levels:
• Support: $416–$420
• Resistance: $455 (breakout trigger)
• Target: $470+ (prior high / upper channel objective)
• Future Target: Liftoff?
A Blow Off Top/Double Top on TESLA?Tesla's move since 9/11/25 has characteristics of a Blow Off Top
Parabolic price rise
Extremely high trading volume
Widespread optimism or “fear of missing out”
Sudden reversal and heavy selling
The high appears to match prior highs from last year, making this a double top.
Near the top, there was a period of distribution, as shareholders exited positions, creating new bagholders.
TSLA BULLISH OCT 9 2025There is a lot of bullish momentum in Tesla at current price. Price action is always superior .
If you dont understand a trade then dont enter in it trusting me or any stranger as this is your hard earned money. Missing a trade is not the end of the world.
Its a trade so,
STOP LOSS means Stop my loss
Trade:
Entry- curren price
SL-$416 close
Target-$460 min
TSLA Oct. 9 — Bulls Defending $430 Zone, Eyeing Break Above $444Tesla (TSLA) has been forming a constructive base near the $430 zone after reclaiming momentum from its recent dip. On the 15-minute chart, structure shows a clean BOS (Break of Structure) followed by a minor CHoCH around $437–$438 — indicating consolidation before a possible continuation move. The ascending intraday trendline remains intact, and price is currently holding above short-term liquidity levels.
MACD is curling upward again with momentum building, while the Stoch RSI has reset near the mid-zone and looks ready to push higher — signs that a bullish continuation could resume if TSLA maintains above $433.
On the 1-hour chart, the key HVL sits around $425, which also aligns with gamma support. Above, there’s a visible stack of gamma resistance layers between $442.5 and $452.5, topped by a major call wall near $457.5–$460. This range defines the next battleground for directional momentum.
Support and Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $441.33 → $444.0
* Major Resistance (Gamma Wall): $452.5 → $457.5
* Immediate Support: $433.09 → $430.0
* Key Support Zone: $425 → $422
GEX & Options Sentiment (1H GEX Chart):
* The highest positive Call Gamma lies between $444–$457.5, suggesting an upside magnet if TSLA maintains strength.
* Strong Put Support sits at $425–$420, reinforcing the bullish floor from the recent rebound.
* IVR is low (27) and Calls dominate at 62%, indicating bullish skew but with room for volatility expansion if breakout volume increases.
* Gamma exposure shows positive slope above $440, meaning dealer hedging could amplify upside moves once that zone clears.
Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Above $441.5 breakout confirmation
* Target 1: $448
* Target 2: $452.5
* Stop-Loss: Below $432
* Rationale: Holding above $433 with bullish MACD and rising GEX bias confirms continuation toward $450 zone.
Bearish Setup:
* Entry: Below $430 breakdown
* Target 1: $425
* Target 2: $420
* Stop-Loss: Above $435
* Rationale: A failed retest at $438–$440 with divergence could trigger a short-term retrace to retest gamma support.
TSLA is in a critical consolidation phase. A break above $441.5 could trigger a bullish leg toward $450+, while losing $430 could open a short-term fade to $425. Bulls are defending key ground — but watch for volume confirmation before entering.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
If anyone needs me to TA any stock, PM me.
TSLA: TradeBear flag forming on 15-min — structure looks weak.
Liquidity sweep around 441 done, momentum fading.
If we lose 434, expect acceleration into deeper liquidity zones (possible 418 area).
RSI flattening, volume divergence visible — watch for breakdown confirmation.
No confirmation = short trap possible, but bias remains bearish until >441 reclaims.
#TSLA #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #BearFlag #SmartMoneyConcepts #Stocks
Not Investment Advice
TESLA LONGSLooking for price to sell off to price low of 152. If price shows bullish price action after liquidating low ( MSS+ retracement into FVG or ICT Breaker) i will be buying in. Alternative setup would be the same if price decides to sell off to the marked 2023 low.
Initial price targets will be Highs marked at 300$.
TSLA maybe retest support near 360$ but target is 700$Price is near channel resistance and red trendline sell pressure zone so we can expect short-term fall here like the red arrow but soon after that short-term fall we can expect heavy gain here like the green arrow on chart and targets like 600$ and more also if the red trendline break valid to the upside without that correction target can hit.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
A Top for Tesla?Tesla ended the third quarter on a strong note, but some traders may see risk of the EV maker stalling.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the $463 price area. TSLA peaked at that level twice last December before reversing lower. Sellers appeared around the same level this month, which may confirm resistance is in place.
Second, the rejection day featured a higher high and lower low. That bearish outside candle is a potential reversal pattern.
Next, MACD has turned lower. Notice how previous downward reversals corresponded with deeper price declines. (Marked by white arrows in the lower study.)
Finally, TSLA is an active underlier in the options market. (Its average volume of 2.7 million contracts in the last month ranks first in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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Fibonacci: Theory and Practice (Part 1) RetracementsThe Fibonacci proportions are a widely used technical tool in financial markets. They are based on the Fibonacci sequence, a numerical series introduced to the West by the Italian mathematician Leonardo de Pisa (13th century) after his travels in the Mediterranean (especially in Béjaïa, Algeria): 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144..., where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones.
Although Ralph Nelson Elliott incorporated concepts related to Fibonacci ratios in his wave theory (published in 1938), it was Charles Collins who first explicitly used price retracements and extensions in the 1940s.
I will divide the content into three parts to enhance understanding of this approach: Fibonacci Retracements, Fibonacci Extensions, and Harmonic Alignments.
Fibonacci Ratios
In trading, the sequence itself is not used directly but rather its ratios, which approximate natural proportions observed in nature, art, and price patterns.
The ratio of any number to the next higher number approaches 0.618 after the first four numbers. For example, 1/1 is 1.00, 1/2 is 0.50, 2/3 is 0.67, 3/5 is 0.60, 5/8 is 0.625, 8/13 is 0.615, 13/21 is 0.619, etc. (pay attention to the value 0.50).
The ratio of any number to the preceding lower number is approximately 1.618, or the inverse of 0.618. For example, 13/8 is 1.625, 21/13 is 1.615, 34/21 is 1.619. The higher the numbers, the closer they get to 0.618 and 1.618.
The ratios of alternate numbers approximate 2.618 or its inverse, 0.382. For example, 13/34 is 0.382, 34/13 is 2.615.
0.786 is the square root of 0.618.
Personal Perspective on Fibonacci Proportions
None of the ratios we will explore below possess magical properties. The truly decisive factor is price action, which acts as a mirror of the collective psychology of investors. Fibonacci proportions are excellent for highlighting proportionality and harmony, aspects that directly influence participants' decisions. This is where the importance of this approach lies.
Fibonacci Retracement Adjustments
In Figure 1, you can see how to correctly draw Fibonacci retracements in an uptrend: from bottom to top, from the low of the impulse (1) (including the lower wicks or shadows) to the upper high (2) (considering its wicks or shadows). The clearer and more defined these impulses are, the greater their influence on market participants' psychology. Clarity ensures better results when studying tools, indicators, or price action.
I discard the 0.236 level in my trading, but you can include it and experiment.
Timeframe is also important to consider: applying Fibonacci on 5-minute charts, for example, would be like trying to control the ocean with a measuring tape. As I demonstrated in the article “Timeframe is Everything” , lower timeframes degrade the success rate due to the greater influence of news and rumors, high-frequency trading, lower capitalization, and interests, etc.
If the drawing is incorrect, the values will not match those in the image, and the diagonal line will point downward.
Figure 1
In Figure 2, I show the correct drawing of Fibonacci retracements in a downtrend, from top to bottom, from the high of the impulse (1) (including the lower wicks or shadows) to the low (2) (considering its wicks or shadows). If the drawing is incorrect, the values will not match, and the diagonal line will point upward.
Figure 2:
Psychology of the Ratios
Ratio 0.382
This ratio is extremely useful for avoiding premature entries in favor of the trend. In my experience, in most cases, we should wait for the price to touch the 0.382 level unless a consistent price formation justifies a trend continuation.
This level indicates a typical retracement zone, making it ideal for detecting "pauses" in strong trends. It is also necessary that entries at this and other ratios we will study are validated by price action and context.
In Figure 3, you can observe how the price offers an excellent reversal opportunity at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. A previously respected 50 EMA and a strong point like the 50% of the body of a weekly engulfing candle increase the robustness of the zone. The confirmation of price action manifests in increased volumes that may signal a likely reversal and a bullish engulfing candle.
Figure 3
I won’t provide examples in downtrends for this level, as the buying pressure inherent in market nature makes short entries based on the 0.382 level very unstable. Thus, this ratio is primarily evident in uptrends.
Ratio 0.50
It is generally believed that this ratio does not belong to the Fibonacci sequence, but 0.50 is a harmonic starting point in the progression.
It marks a balance between supply and demand, thus serving as a psychological magnet that tends to attract the price while delineating a battle zone between buyers and sellers.
In Figure 4, you can see the correct use of the level: The 0.50 ratio is perfectly aligned with the presence of a 50 SMA and price action elements like a ceiling test , offering extremely robust resistance. An island gap pattern is an excellent reversal signal to confirm a short entry.
Figure 4
In Figure 5, we observe the alignment of the 0.50 level with the presence of a large gap acting as robust support. Additionally, the level coincides with the 50% of the body of a bullish engulfing candle on a weekly chart, adding significant confidence. The price action would confirm an entry with a large bullish engulfing candle.
Figure 5
Ratio 0.618 (Golden Ratio)
The 0.618 ratio is a universal "equilibrium point" in crowd psychology; the place where many investors expect a bounce, as it represents a deep but not exhaustive correction.
Studies and tests (such as those by Robert Prechter in Elliott Wave Principle ) show that the 61.8% level appears in up to 70% of significant corrections in indices like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones, while behavioral economists argue that its "success" is more due to confirmation bias than strict causality.
In Figure 6, we observe how the golden ratio (0.618) aligns with a high order volume zone (volume profile). The noticeable weakness in price action, graphically represented in oscillators like the MACD (bearish divergence), combined with a volume spike, could provide clues about a likely rejection in the zone.
Figure 6
In Figure 7, we observe a bullish example where the 0.618 level aligns with a strong support generated by accumulation. Note how this zone shows a high order volume (volume profile). This support was also backed by a 20 EMA on a weekly chart. The price action would confirm the entry after several rejection candles.
Figure 7
Ratio 0.786
This is my favorite Fibonacci retracement ratio, and I use it exclusively to seek reversals in uptrends. It indicates trend weakness, but I like to consider it a high-probability reaction zone, as selling pressure in such a deep correction tends to be weak, while large participants or institutions may see a good opportunity to buy low.
I apply this ratio exclusively to double bottoms, as seen in Figures 8 and 9.
Figure 8
Figure 9
In Figure 8, the 0.786 level aligns with the 50% of a monthly engulfing candle and a large gap visible on the daily chart. Additionally, volume and a large engulfing candle pattern would have confirmed the entry well.
Figure 9 shows an alignment between the 0.786 level and a strong support on the daily chart. In the same zone, a 20 EMA on a weekly chart coincides. The price action confirmation manifests in compression and an explosion of bullish volatility.
Fun Facts
1-Leonardo de Pisa (or Leonardo Pisano) was born around 1170 in Pisa, Italy, and was the son of Guglielmo Bonacci, a commercial official working in North Africa.
The nickname Fibonacci comes from "filius Bonacci," which in Latin literally means "son of Bonacci." He signed his works as "Leonardo, son of Bonacci, Pisan," but the term "Fibonacci" was shortened and popularized centuries later.
2-The Fibonacci numerical series actually dates back to ancient Indian texts (such as those by Pingala in the 2nd century BC, used for poetic meter).
3-Leonardo de Pisa popularized the numerical series in Western Europe through his book, Liber Abaci (1202), where he used it to solve practical problems, such as rabbit population growth (the famous example: a pair of rabbits produces a sequence of births generating the numbers 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8...).
Conclusions
Fibonacci proportions are a valuable complement, but not the holy grail. In my strategies, I find them extremely useful and feel comfortable incorporating them in specific contexts, though not all systems require them. For example, I like having a Fibonacci at hand in patterns like double bottoms to identify key supports or when a price overextends or retraces strongly, delineating potential reversal zones.
I recommend that investors avoid chasing mystical numerical alignments and maintain a logical approach to each tool, method, or pattern studied.
Final Note
If you want to take a look at my analysis record, you can find my profile in Spanish, where I transparently share well-defined market entries. Send your good vibes if you enjoyed this article, and may God bless you all.






















