$TSLA Bullish WedgeWeekly Chart Consolidation Pattern: TSLA has formed a clear triangle consolidation pattern after the significant pullback from its 2025 highs around $440. Price is currently testing the upper boundary of this triangle at $329.65, suggesting potential for a breakout.
Key Support Levels Holding: The stock has established strong support at $273.38, which has been tested multiple times and held firmly. This creates a solid foundation for a bullish move.
Momentum Shift: TSLA recently breaking above its descending trendline resistance, indicating a shift in short-term momentum from bearish to bullish.
Higher Lows: On both daily and weekly charts, TSLA has been forming higher lows since April 2025, suggesting accumulation and strengthening bullish sentiment.
Fundamental Catalysts
Several fundamental factors support a bullish outlook:
Robotaxi Progress: Recent news confirms TSLA received a Texas Robotaxi permit (August 9th), allowing it to launch a ride-hailing service with safety drivers, competing directly with Uber and Lyft in the autonomous vehicle space.
Q2 Earnings Beat: The July 23rd earnings report showed TSLA beating expectations with EPS of $0.40 (14.29% above estimates) and revenue of $22.5B (slightly above estimates), demonstrating the company's resilience despite challenging market conditions.
Production Plans on Track: During the earnings call, Tesla confirmed "plans for new vehicles that will launch in 2025 remain on track, including initial production of a more affordable model in 1H25." This addresses a key market concern about Tesla's product roadmap.
Strong Analyst Support: Despite mixed ratings, several prominent analysts remain highly bullish, with Wedbush maintaining a $500 price target (approximately 52% upside from current levels). RBC Capital also raised their price target from $319 to $325 recently.
AI and Technology Leadership
TSLA's AI initiatives offer significant upside potential:
FSD Progress: Elon Musk stated during the earnings call that "unsupervised FSD likely to be available for personal use by end of year," which could be a major competitive advantage.
Samsung Partnership: The company secured a $16.5 billion chip deal with Samsung for next-gen AI chips, positioning Tesla for continued leadership in autonomous driving technology.
Supply Chain Resilience: Tesla is "localizing supply chains to mitigate geopolitical risk," making it the only automaker sourcing batteries at scale through non-Chinese routes, according to Piper Sandler.
Price Action and Potential Targets
The recent price action suggests TSLA is preparing for a potential upward move:
Immediate Resistance: The $340.24 level shown on your chart represents the first significant resistance. A decisive break above this level could trigger a run toward the $400 psychological level.
Intermediate Target: If momentum continues, the next target would be a retest of the 2025 high near $440.
Current Price Action: The stock has recently crossed above the descending trendline that had been in place since January 2025, which is typically a bullish signal.
Risks to Monitor
While maintaining a bullish bias, it's important to acknowledge potential risks:
AI Team Changes: Recent news indicates Tesla scrapped its Dojo Supercomputer AI team, which could impact some AI development initiatives.
Competition: Chinese EV makers and traditional automakers are intensifying efforts in both EV and autonomous driving spaces.
Technical Support: The $275-280 zone remains critical - a break below could invalidate the bullish thesis.
In conclusion, TSLA's technical setup across multiple timeframes, combined with positive fundamental developments in robotaxi, AI initiatives, and upcoming product launches, creates a compelling bullish case for the stock in the near to medium term. The stock appears positioned for a potential upside move as it tests key technical resistance levels with strong support established below current prices.
