Trade ideas
$GLD: CD = 0.618 ABAMEX:GLD had a craze run and got hit with a big wave of shorts and profit taking above $4400/oz. I don't think the bull market in gold is over, only that it's in a correction.
It looks like a zigzag correction is unfolding. CD has reached 0.618 AB this morning, which enticed a bounce. It can go to CD = AB however.
I'm holding some GLD shares and have a Limit Order to buy at CD = AB ($348).
Gold UpdateThis week, gold took a bit of a beatdown not surprising given it just hit an all-time high (ATH). I’m still bullish with call options expiring in 2026. On the 1-hour chart I’m watching for a short-term bounce. A lot of traders are expecting a deeper pullback since the 1-week and 1-month RSIs are both above 80, signaling overbought conditions.
I’m also seeing a bull flag forming on the 1-hour timeframe. I averaged down on my calls (probably should’ve waited for the flag breakout confirmation), but my long-term outlook on gold remains strong. Patience is key let’s see how the next leg plays out.
Key Upcoming U.S. Economic Releases
• Tomorrow (U.S.): Consumer Price Index (CPI) – major inflation print likely to move the dollar and hence commodities.
• Also keep an eye on other high-impact releases from the economic calendar (e.g., employment-related, PPI/retail data) which can add volatility.
Buy the dip in GLD? Back above $400From a sentiment perspective, everyone is bearish GLD now that it's fallen so much over the last week. However, from the chart perspective, it looks like a great place to buy the dip.
If I turn on Bollinger bands, price is the furthest it's been outside of the bands to the downside from as far as I can see on the chart.
From an RSI standpoint, we're also still in extreme bullish areas on high timeframes. That makes me think that this is just a buy the dip scenario in a parabolic trend, and not the start of a larger selloff yet.
I think if we can hold these bottom support levels, the last leg higher will take us above $400. Likely to the first two resistance levels around the $420 area, but there's possibility that we can extend higher-- I've marked higher resistance levels off on the chart too. This should all play out before Nov 21st expiration.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming month or so.
The Illusion of Readiness - Creeping DoubtNOTE – This is a post on mindset and emotion. It is not a trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. My intention is to help you preserve your capital, energy, and focus - so you can trade your own system with calm and confidence.
You know that feeling before you click buy or sell .
You pause…
You check your levels again.
Re-measure your stop.
Recalculate your size.
Zoom in, zoom out.
Add one more confirmation just to be sure.
You tell yourself it’s discipline.
That you’re waiting for the “perfect” setup.
But there's no denying it…
You can feel it
Creeping doubt entering your trading room
Listen. The truth is you already know your plan.
You’ve tested it.
You’ve seen it work.
You are ready.
But your mind doesn’t trust that yet.
So it creates the illusion of readiness
a loop of micro-adjustments and checks that feel productive…
when really, they keep you safely on the sidelines.
It’s control in its most subtle form.
A way of saying,
“I’ll act when I feel completely certain.”
Except in trading that feeling never comes.
Every tweak strengthens the belief that you’re not ready.
Every delay tells your system,
“Not yet… not safe.”
The work isn’t in waiting for confidence.
It’s in acting through the uncertainty
and building trust in motion.
Next time you find yourself double-checking for the fifth time, pause and ask:
“Who is in the driving seat here?”
Take a deep steadying breath and then follow your plan.
GLD OCT 2025GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) 4H Analysis
Price rejected the $400 resistance zone after a strong institutional rally, showing early signs of distribution near the top. There’s a visible gap around $370, likely to be retested before any continuation higher. Below, the $345–$340 range remains a key absorption/support zone backed by previous institutional activity. A break under that level opens room toward $300, aligning with the major structural support and prior accumulation area.
Upside target: $400
Downside target: $370 (gap fill), $345, $300
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Short GLDGold is now over $4,200 and I believe there is a trade to the down-side.
Understand, it VERY hard to call a top in such a powerful bull market move. Most of the time, you WILL lose this trade.
Even when you do win these type of trades, the price action will usually go against you before it goes in the right direction.
It is a market. You WILL be tested.
That’s how price discovery works.
The truth is that if you're trying to outperform market-level returns, you MUST take risks.
Gold’s Secret Driver Flashes Red – What That Means at 3,745 Sup.Gold’s rally just slammed into resistance at 3,780 - and now the market is deciding: does support at 3,745 hold for another leg up, or do rising USD and real yields flip the script? This is the most important zone of the week for gold traders.
Gold (XAUUSD) is pausing just below the 3,780 resistance zone after a strong run. The bigger trend remains bullish, but intraday momentum has cooled as the USD and yields firm up.
Daily Chart View (Big Picture)
• Trend intact: higher lows, structure still bullish.
• Support: 3,745 → 3,726.
• Resistance: 3,780 → 3,810 → 3,850.
• GLD ETF flows remain supportive on daily closes.
4H Chart View (Execution)
• Consolidation just under 3,780.
• Micro support: 3,745–3,750.
• Nominal yields (US10Y ~4.11%) and real yields (DFII10 ~1.78) are ticking higher → headwind.
• DXY firm at ~97.7.
• GLD 4H candles consolidating, not pushing higher.
Scenarios
1. Breakout Buy:
• 4H close >3,780 with DXY <97.5 & US10Y <4.10 and real yields easing.
• Target 3,810 → 3,850. Stop below 3,745.
2. Pullback Buy (Base Case):
• Dip into 3,745–3,750 holds, with GLD stabilizing.
• Target 3,780, then 3,810. Stop 3,726.
3. Bearish Flip (Lower Probability):
• 4H close <3,745 while DXY/real yields extend higher.
• Opens 3,726 → 3,700. Invalidation >3,780.
The daily trend is still bullish, but the 4H says momentum is cooling. Best risk/reward is to let gold test 3,745–3,750 for a dip-buy setup, or wait for a confirmed breakout >3,780 with the macro drivers aligned.
Are you buying the 3,745 dip, or waiting for a clean breakout at 3,780? Drop your view below ⬇️
GLD Cycle Analysis – Dual Opportunities from 180 & 90-Week CycleThis chart highlights two dominant rhythms in GLD (SPDR Gold Shares):
The 180-week cycle, which has reliably pinpointed major long-term buy opportunities over the past two decades. Each time price has descended into these troughs, patient investors were rewarded with strong, multi-year rallies.
The 90-week cycle, nested within the larger one, has provided shorter-term opportunities for investors and swing traders. These mid-cycle lows often marked excellent entry points for those looking to capture medium-range gains without waiting for the full 180-week reset.
Takeaway:
Cycles matter - the 180-week rhythm has been the foundation for long-term positioning, while the 90-week cycle has created multiple shorter-range accumulation windows. Both have worked hand-in-hand to map gold’s path higher.
GLD - CALL4hr chart pattern: ascending triangle
Resistance: 321.99 -> need to break & close above 322.2 to confirm bullish breakout. A retest to the equal high at $317 ish might happen after reaching this resistance. Still a good call play from 318 to 321.9
Ultimate price target : $349.2
Stoploss: $304.9
*** Stoploss (for option): Just in case if it is still consolidating in the triangle, stop loss at $313, monitor price movement and re-entry when it reacts at $305.2
*Log Chart* has more respect .Gold on the 5D
Cup & Handle pattern still playing out.
One target already reached and broken disrespectfully.
Now make it's way to log target.
The World:
Everything is up, everything is great 👍🏾, there's no such thing as a peek or overbought market, what's a pullback?,
Stocks only go up🚀
Sounds Familiar...
my levels to manage $GLD tradesAccording to the Chicago Fed, three chief factors influence gold prices: inflationary expectations, real interest rates, and economic pessimism. A rise in expected inflation increases demand for gold as an inflation hedge, while lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. During periods of “bad economic times,” gold’s protective status further boosts its appeal.
GLD Ascending TriangleGLD has clear resistance in the 318 area but has been trading tighter and tighter up towards it over the last couple months. September is generally the month for a market pullback if you look at seasonality trends, and GLD often (but not always ofc) inverses the rest of the market, and after today's strong close, I think its worth watching as the market may pullback even more in September. Additionally I saw about 28 million in 320 9/19 calls for GLD, so the flow is leaning bullish. NFA






















