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SPY Aug 28thI missed the opening pre mkt high (PMH) rejection (648 to 645) but remained patient and waited for buyers to enter at 645 demand, which is what happened. 1. As soon as it touched the 4 hour level (red line) I waited 15 minutes for the candles to hold above it to confirm that it was valid. Jumping in sooner could be a fake-out. 2. I entered and began trimming as it went up. 3. The tricky part was deciding to get out of ALL contracts or leave runners. Note. I'm testing the 20 EMA as my backup confirmation to the 9 EMA, so this time I kept several runners through the slight dip. In the past I would have gotten out completely and re-entered on the PMH retest, which isn't a bad strategy but I noticed panicking to always get out, left me with smaller profits. 4. I continued to trim all the way up to resistance (red line) for bigger profits. Excellent trade! Overall takeaway: A. Don't get mad & frustrated because you missed a move off the open. Wait for the next setup. B. Establishing valid levels on higher timeframes allows you to profit on intraday trades.
AMEX:SPY
by Allyvyne
Consolidation and pullback before a new wave highSPY is at a 3-year-old upper resistance line at ATH. RSI and MACD have negative divergences, which indicate possible weakness and a potential cooling with an expected drop of the index. Possible cooling down to the 0.5 FIB retracement of the last wave, which would be very desirable and healthy for a further stronger rise of the stock market and the index. Advance decline line is at ATH, which is very bullish because it shows the strength of the index and indicates that there is still room for growth. Overall bullish, but cooling is needed, which I estimate with 80% certainty due to the above-mentioned factors
AMEX:SPYLong
by Consistent_Trades
SPY: RISK MODELING...📊 SPY Macro Risk Map | Positioning for Global Capital Flows The S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ) is testing premium levels near the 1.0 Fibonacci extension (649). My risk model highlights a potential liquidity sweep before deeper retracements toward the 0.786–0.702 zones (631–601). These levels represent equilibrium realignments where high-probability institutional accumulation often re-emerges. 🌍 Global Macro Alignment US Macro: Sticky inflation, Fed policy uncertainty, and fiscal imbalances may cap upside in the near term. Liquidity stress will likely fuel tactical drawdowns. UAE Positioning: Sovereign wealth capital (ADIA, Mubadala, ICD) is actively rotating into AI-driven infrastructure, global equity overlays, and commodity hedges. Their deep liquidity seeks asymmetric risk-adjusted returns while maintaining exposure to dollar assets. Capital Intelligence Play: By framing SPY drawdowns as structured entry opportunities, we align with UAE’s appetite for risk-managed US exposure—bridging tactical market volatility with long-term sovereign allocation needs. ⚖️ Risk Pathway Short-term rejection at premium zones → corrective wave toward 600–620 liquidity pockets. Potential macro catalyst alignment around October (IMF/WB meetings, Fed forward guidance). Re-accumulation phase into year-end, targeting 670+ if global liquidity stabilizes. 📌 Financial Intelligence Insight This is less about chasing trend tops and more about positioning in volatility as an entry vehicle. For UAE-based allocators, the current SPY setup is a live case study in tactical liquidity provision—risk is not avoided but engineered. 💡 Key takeaway: SPY is not just a chart—it’s a capital flow model. Anticipating global sovereign rotation allows us to build strategies that resonate with investors sitting on deep pools of capital.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPY Retesting An 18 Year Long CeilingPrice has remained in this channel since the 2008 Recession, and we have finally reached the upper channel once again. Ask yourself, with all things considered, is the current state of the American economy truly well enough off that we could see a strong breakout, and then witness a parabolic rally upwards? My opinion is a resounding NO. This bullish rebound rally that this market has shown in the past 5 months since the March/April crash won't be sustainable for the long run, and the fact that it's been a melt upwards with such low volume is a telling sign. I am expecting a 30%-40% drop within the next 6-7 months-as early as Q4 this before year's end, or no later than the end of Q1 next year.
AMEX:SPYShort
by CJBlueNorther
6
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🔥 Fed’s favorite inflation gauge hits: PCE arrives just as markets digest Powell’s Jackson Hole tone. 💵 Consumer under the microscope: Spending & income data reveal demand strength heading into fall. 🏭 Regional PMI wrap: Chicago PMI closes out August with a manufacturing pulse check. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — PCE Price Index (Jul) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Outlays (Jul) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #inflation #Fed #bonds #economy #PMI #consumerconfidence
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
What no one will reveal to you about volume. Theory and PracticeFor Richard W. Schabacker, whom I consider the father of Technical Analysis in the West, rigorous technical analysis must combine the study of price and volume. Paradoxically, volume was the last piece of data I effectively integrated into my trading, due to the scarcity of practical information. In this article, I will explore the classical view of using volume and then my personal approach, based on logic and accumulated experience. Whether you are a novice or an expert in the markets, and whether or not you use volume to clarify your analyses, reading this article will enrich your perspective on this topic. The Ichimoku indicator values displayed on the screen are personal variations, resulting from my research. I hope they are useful to you. What is Volume? In the context of financial markets, volume represents the number of shares, contracts, or lots traded in an asset over a specific period of time. Volume reflects the intensity of market activity and is represented as a histogram just below the price chart. "Volume is a relative matter; that is, when we speak of high volume, we refer to a transaction volume greater than what has prevailed for some time before." — Richard W. Schabacker, Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits Classical View of Volume: Generally, the main proponents inShannon proponents in this discipline see volume as useful for the following purposes: 1. Confirming the Strength of a Trend: Volume should accompany the strength of a trend, and if volume is weak, it is likely that we can anticipate a reversal, as low volumes in a trend indicate a loss of interest among participants. 2. Analyzing Support and Resistance: Most major proponents tend to view weak volume as a signal for potential reversals, while recommending validating breakouts of support and resistance with increased volume. 3. Analyzing Continuation or Exhaustion Patterns: The classical approach suggests that before entering continuation or exhaustion patterns (such as accumulations, distributions, head and shoulders, double tops and bottoms, triangles, etc.), there should be a depletion of volume, followed by a breakout of the pattern with a significant increase in volume to confirm the presence of participant interest. This approach is solid in theory, but in practice, it can lead to subjective interpretations and errors if not properly contextualized. Personal View: May the Force Be with You In my experience, volume should not be primarily interpreted by observing weakness, as this can lead to misreadings and premature market entries. Instead, I recommend focusing on detecting strength as the decisive factor. High volume reveals the massive entry of participants or large orders—whether from large investors or institutions—leaving a clear footprint in the market. These large orders, whether buy or sell, indicate real commitment and potential for sustained movements. On Volume and Trend Analysis: Why base a reversal on the weakness of a trend when the key is to identify the context and strength driving the change? A clearly weakened price action backed by low volumes can extend in the direction of the trend, draining our accounts if we base our entries on volume weakness. Whether trading with or against the trend, the turning point must be supported by robust volume. This spike in activity confirms the presence of large investors or institutions in action, translating into greater interest and liquidity. As technical analysts, our goal is to capture fluctuations or trends, not to diagnose whether a trend is "healthy." Weakness is relevant information for detecting exhaustion, but it is strength, in the right context and with proper confirmation (through patterns), that will increase our success rate and improve our risk-reward ratio. In Figure 1.1, we can see how volume spikes generally predict pauses or reversals in trends. Figure 1.1 Tesla. Daily Chart In Figure 1.2, we can observe how weak volume could indicate a loss of interest from participants (1 and 2), but it is an increase in volume combined with a Japanese candlestick pattern (3) that can confirm a likely effective entry. Figure 1.2 BTC/USDT Daily Chart On Volume in Support and Resistance Analysis: As mentioned earlier, weakness is relevant information, but strength is essential to validate a trend reversal or continuation. According to the classical approach, a breakout of support or resistance should be backed by a significant increase in volume. However, experience has taught me that the high volume detected during a breakout often represents common bull or bear traps, where buyers or sellers get trapped. There are several reasons for this: supports and resistances are psychological zones that are constantly evolving, making it easy to confuse breakout volume with rejection volume. Additionally, during breakouts of significant supports or resistances, large institutions often manipulate or protect their positions by executing large buy or sell orders. How can we avoid falling into bull or bear traps, or even use them to our advantage? Personally, I recommend not seeking breakouts of supports and resistances based on volume. Price compressions around supports and resistances are more useful for this purpose, as they reveal the intent and dominance of buyers or sellers while offering a superior risk-reward ratio. High volumes generally indicate rejection, even if the zone appears to have been broken. Without prior compression—or accumulation or distribution—it is never advisable to chase breakouts. In Figure 1.3, we can observe two phenomena in one: the breakout of a consolidation pattern and the breakout of a resistance ($110,000) following a price compression (3). Notice how buying forces intensely defended the $100,000 zone, as evidenced by volume spikes and large engulfing patterns that preceded them (1 and 2). The price compression at the $110,000 zone reveals the bullish intent to break the resistance in a context where buying strength is dominant. On the other hand, in Figure 1.4, I show you what a bear trap looks like. Observe how what appears to be a confirmed breakout with volume at a defended support level ended up being a significant rejection by large investors or institutions (1). At this point, I will make two clarifications: The volume histogram is represented with colors on some investment platforms to facilitate the visual detection of patterns, but volumes themselves do not have color. Whether a volume is bullish or bearish does not depend on whether the accompanying candlestick is bullish or bearish, but rather on the real-time interpretation of the technical analyst and, above all, on the subsequent development of events. In the example of the false breakout in Figure 1.4, we observe a bullish rejection volume. Another vital aspect is that supports in strong and healthy uptrends will generate more false breakouts than reliable ones, so I recommend taking more long entries. Additionally, during the euphoria and hope characteristic of a bullish market, short entries will be extremely risky. In the articles “Bear and Bull Traps” and “Double Pressure: The Key to Successful Breakout Trading,” I describe these phenomena in detail. Figure 1.3 BTC/USDT Daily Chart Figure 1.4 BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart On Volume in Continuation or Exhaustion Patterns: While it is often recommended to ensure a decrease in volume prior to the breakout of an exhaustion pattern, I recommend ensuring the detection of large volumes within the exhaustion pattern itself and confirming entries based on price compressions at the boundaries of the accumulation or distribution range. Large volumes in continuation or exhaustion patterns indicate that many participants or strong institutions are partially or fully closing their buy or sell positions, which can lead to a correction. Even investors like Thomas Bulkowski have noted that the success rate increases in patterns where large volumes are present. On the other hand, contrary to the classical approach, I recommend avoiding confirming entries based on pattern breakouts with large volume, as exhaustion and trend continuation patterns often generate strong bursts of volatility. In the best case, this may cause you to miss the trend, but in the worst case, it will expose you to entries with poor risk-reward ratios. Price compressions are a safer option for making entries and capitalizing on volatility bursts. In Figure 1.5, you can observe the effectiveness of price compressions in the right context and how volume is a key factor in determining the presence of large investors. Figure 1.5 BTC/USDT Daily Chart Some Additional Examples: An ABCD pattern offers excellent opportunities to take entries based on volume, always with confirmation from price action. In Figure 1.6, you will observe how I would effectively use bear traps (D), which are very common in strong uptrends. Figure 1.6 BTC/USDT Daily Chart Relevant Data on Volume: Volume in Forex and CFDs Both the Forex market (currencies) and CFDs (contracts for difference) operate in a decentralized, over-the-counter (OTC) manner, meaning there is no centralized exchange where all trading volume is recorded. In Forex, the volume displayed on platforms does not represent the "true" total volume of the global market, but rather the flow of trades within the liquidity pool of the broker or its liquidity providers. CFDs, being OTC derivatives offered by brokers, follow the same pattern: the visible volume is specific to the broker and its liquidity network, not the total volume of the underlying market. Brokers aggregate liquidity from multiple providers (such as banks or dark pools), but traders only see a fraction of this, which may not reflect the actual volume of the underlying asset (e.g., a CFD on stocks does not show the total volume of the stock exchange). Volume in Centralized Stock Exchanges Stock markets like the NYSE are centralized, meaning all transactions are executed and recorded on a single regulated exchange. This allows for consolidated, real-time reporting of the total volume of shares traded on that exchange. The volume reflects all executed trades, including the total number of shares bought and sold. Under strict regulation, the data is standardized, audited, and publicly accessible. Volume in the Cryptocurrency Market The cryptocurrency market is decentralized and fragmented, similar to Forex: transactions occur across multiple global exchanges (such as Binance or Coinbase) without a unified central record. This makes the total volume an aggregation of data reported by each platform, introducing inconsistencies and potential manipulations. Personally, I recommend prioritizing data from Binance, as it consistently leads in spot and derivatives trading volume globally, representing a significant portion of the market (approximately 30-40% in recent aggregated metrics). Volume and the S&P 500 Although the S&P 500 index, being a composite indicator and not a tradable asset itself, does not record transaction volume, a smart strategy for analyzing volume related to this index involves monitoring the trading volume of the SPY ETF (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust). This exchange-traded fund closely tracks the performance of the S&P 500 and attracts a high level of trading activity, providing a valuable metric for assessing market interest, liquidity, and potential volume patterns during bullish or bearish trends. In Figures 1.7 and 1.8, you can see how S&P 500 readings can be cleverly combined with SPY volume data. Figure 1.7 S&P 500 Daily Chart Figure 1.8 SPY Daily Chart Final Note: If you’d like to take a look at my analysis record, you can check out my profile in Spanish, where I transparently share well-defined market entries. Send your good vibes if you enjoyed this article, and may God bless you all.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Especulador96
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Aug 28, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Aug 28, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🏔️ Jackson Hole aftershocks: Markets still digest Powell’s stance; cut odds for September in focus. 📉 GDP revision risk: Growth momentum under the microscope with Q2 update. 🛠️ Labor market cooling? Jobless claims set the tone into Friday’s PCE. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). ⏰ 8:30 AM — GDP (Q2, 2nd Estimate). ⏰ 11:00 AM — Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #GDP #joblessclaims #JacksonHole #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🇺🇸➡️🇮🇳 U.S. slaps 50% tariffs on Indian goods (textiles, gems, leather, machinery) starting today — inflation & trade ripple risk. 💻 Earnings spotlight: Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Alibaba reporting this week → tech volatility in focus. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ All Day — U.S. Treasury Auctions (10-year note, 5-year note + FRN). ⏰ 11:45 AM — Richmond Fed Pres. Tom Barkin speaks. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #tariffs #India #Treasury #earnings #tech #Nvidia
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Convexity Doesn’t Care: Pinned, Suppressed, Released.This is antifragile flow in action. Fri: DRB signal fires, but spot runs headfirst into a gamma wall. Dealers long gamma = suppression, absorption, fakeout. Mon: OPEX clears. Pin decays. Market resets. Neutral, no follow-through yet. Tue: Vomma/Vanna flows finally kick. No pin left to absorb → convex release to target. The point? Breakouts aren’t wrong, they’re delayed. Gamma pins are temporary. Vol releases are structural. Learn to wait for expiry, not fight it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Concxpt
SPY My Opinion! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SPYis below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 645.29 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 641.80 My Stop Loss - 647.22 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
3
SPY: Bear Season Loading? - Aug 26,2025 (From someone who’s watched this chart fake everyone out before.) I’ve been wrong before on SPY — especially in weird low-volume chop zones — but here’s what I do feel confident about today: SPY looks like it wants lower. Yes, we had a potential bull flag. Yes, buyers keep trying to gap this thing up. But every time, it gets slammed down by sellers. That tells me one thing: We’re in a controlled descent unless bulls flip the script *hard*. 🔍 TA View (No Macro Needed) → The 4H bull flag failed — sellers stepped in before it could break. → 642–644 is now a battlefield — if price can’t hold above it, there’s no real momentum. → VIX is creeping up and bonds aren’t helping → pressure is building, not easing. → Seasonality? Late August into September = historically bearish. That lines up perfectly. 🧭 Scenarios I’m Trading 1. ✅ Base Case: Downside Plays Out * Price fails to reclaim 642–644. * Stays under VWAP. * Targets = 637 → 633 * Stretch = **628** if flows get aggressive. 2. ➖ Chop Trap * Range between 642–644. * Expect fakeouts both directions. * No swings here — just scalp and survive. 3. ❌ I’m Wrong: Bulls Rip It * Clean break over 646.5 with volume. * Squeeze target = 648.5 → 650 * I stop out, reassess — not fading that move. 🎯 Final Bias (Unfiltered) Unless bulls pull off a miracle over 646.5, I’m staying short-biased under 641 Looking for 637, maybe 633 if sellers stay in control. If we chop? Cool. I’ll scalp the range. If we squeeze? I’ll admit I’m wrong and flip. But right now? This chart still wants lower.
AMEX:SPYShort
by davekclinton76
1
Google Elliot Wave count adjustedNASDAQ:GOOGL appears to be completing a motif wave 3 with a push into all time high on overbought bearish divergence in the RSI. This would align with 2.618 Fibonacci extension target, a high probability ending point for wave 3. Wave 4 would be expected to terminate at the nested wave (4) which aligns with triple support - Daily Pivot, High Volume Node and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement. The ascending 200EMA may come to meet price at this point adding confluence. For now the trend remains up. Safe trading
AMEX:SPY
by Maddox_Metrics
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Tuesday, August 26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Tuesday, August 26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Post-Jackson Hole digestion 🏔️ → markets recalibrate. Traders continue parsing Powell’s keynote; the path of cuts into September remains the dominant driver for $SPY/$TLT/$DXY. Durables in focus ✈️📦. Core capital goods orders (non-defense ex-air) are the cleanest read on business investment; softness fuels cut odds, strength = “higher-for-longer.” Housing affordability squeeze 🏠. Case-Shiller and pending sales provide a 2-sided look at price momentum vs. turnover; AMEX:XHB and AMEX:XLY key tickers. Consumer mood check 🛒😬. Conference Board Confidence frames labor market sentiment and forward spending intentions. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Jul) Consensus: ~-0.3% headline; core orders expected flat/slightly positive. Why it matters: Big-ticket spending → business cycle pulse. 9:00 AM — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jun) Prior: +6.0% y/y. Why it matters: Tracks housing inflation pressure; feeds into consumer wealth effect. 10:00 AM — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug) Prior: 100.3. Why it matters: Labor perceptions & spending intentions → AMEX:XLY sentiment. 10:00 AM — Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (Aug) Regional check on factory activity; complements durables. 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Jul) Prior: -4.1% m/m. Why it matters: Leading indicator of housing turnover; affordability squeeze. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #durablegoods #housing #consumerconfidence #Fed #DXY #TLT
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
SPY: Are the Bears Preparing for Winter?Greetings again, fellow travelers. Once more, I am not here to offer a crystal ball, but simply to share the patterns I observe and the story they seem to be telling. This is one perspective, a single lens through which to view the market's vast landscape. Take what serves you on your own path. SPY: Are the Bears Preparing for Winter? The narrative for SPY feels similar to the broader market: a moment of pause and potential reversal after a strong run. However, the winds here feel a bit colder. Recent commentary from Jerome Powell suggesting the economy may be more fragile than it appears, coupled with the ongoing tariff situation, provides a fundamental backdrop that warrants extra caution. It feels like the seasons are changing. The bear claws seem sharp, and as we approach the colder months, they may need to fatten up before hibernation. This is a time when they can be voracious, so we must navigate with awareness and respect for their power. The Technical Story on the Daily Chart The chart itself reflects this cautious sentiment: Fading Momentum: Just as we saw elsewhere, the momentum indicators in the lower panel are showing signs of exhaustion. The energy that propelled this last move up is beginning to wane, suggesting the path of least resistance may soon be shifting downwards. Market Structure: Price is hovering at a level where it has previously met resistance. A failure to push decisively higher here could invite sellers to step in with more confidence. Potential Pullback Zones: If sellers do take control, I see two primary areas of interest below: The first key support level is around the $577.50 mark, which represents a previous market structure break (MSB). Below that, a larger demand zone sits between $510-$530 , where longer-term buyers might be waiting. An Illustrative Short Setup For those whose plan aligns with this cautious view, the current price offers a quality risk/reward setup based on the updated parameters. Bias: Short-Term Bearish Entry: Around $642.00 Stop Loss: A clearly defined stop above the recent price action at ~$665.01 protects against a change in the narrative. Take Profit: Targeting the support level at ~$577.50 . The Risk/Reward for this specific idea is approximately 1:2.8 . Navigating the River This potential downturn is not something to fear, but something to understand. It is a cycle. For those who are patient, it could present a fantastic "buy the dip" opportunity later on. The key is not to fight the current. Don't be a salmon. A salmon fights with all its might to swim upstream, and while noble, it often ends in exhaustion and peril. Right now, the river's current feels bearish. It is wiser to be a leaf, flowing with it, observing from the bank, and waiting for the stream to calm before entering again. This is my piece of the puzzle. I hope it helps. Just shine. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is for educational and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheTradingDoct0r
Bearish OutlookThe market reaction to Powell’s speech, in which the potential rate cut by the Fed in September was essentially confirmed, led to a rise. However, what’s encouraging is that the previous peak wasn’t broken. This is a good sign for a short. Just to remind, I have a rather bearish view on the broader market in the medium-term (on a 1-year horizon). And perhaps the moment has come. Maybe it's not yet the time for a big short, but we could certainly head toward the 630 area. 📝Trading Plan 🟢Entry: Short from the current level 🔴Stop: 647. If we go above the historical maximum, I’ll exit, and the idea will be off. I’ll look for another entry point for a short. 🎯Target: The potential downside is to 630, maybe even lower—let's see. For now, this is the plan.
AMEX:SPYShort
by kventinka
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Themes Jackson Hole aftermath 🏔️ Powell’s Friday keynote sets the tone. Markets will trade on whether he opened the door to a September cut or stuck to a cautious stance. Expect chop in AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:TLT , TVC:DXY as traders recalibrate. Inflation & Jobs 🔥💼 Fresh PCE inflation and jobless claims anchor the week. Any upside surprise revives “higher-for-longer”; softness = fuel for cut odds. Retail earnings wrap 🛒 With $WMT/$TGT/ NYSE:HD behind us, discounters and specialty retailers close the season. AMEX:XRT stays a barometer of consumer resilience. Housing & confidence 🏠📉 Pending Home Sales + Conference Board Confidence will test sentiment in an affordability squeeze backdrop. Watch AMEX:XHB , $XLY. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 📅 Monday, Aug 25 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 AM) – broad growth pulse. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 AM) – regional check. 📅 Tuesday, Aug 26 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM) – capex signal; core ex-transport key. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:00 AM) – factory health in Mid-Atlantic. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM) – housing momentum. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM) – labor intentions, rate sentiment. 📅 Wednesday, Aug 27 MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 AM) – weekly mortgage pulse. Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM) – trade, inventories, wholesale. Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM) – affordability and turnover test. Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM) – $CL_F/ AMEX:XLE driver. 📅 Thursday, Aug 28 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) – labor cooling watch. GDP (2nd Estimate, Q2) (8:30 AM) – growth momentum, revisions matter. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11:00 AM) – regional survey. 📅 Friday, Aug 29 PCE Price Index (Jul, 8:30 AM) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Personal Income & Outlays (8:30 AM) – consumer demand and savings rates. Chicago PMI (9:45 AM) – manufacturing signal ahead of ISM next week. UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, 10:00 AM) – inflation expectations track. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #SPY #SPX #Fed #PCE #GDP #Housing #Confidence #Energy #Bonds #Dollar
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao