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$SPY – FOMC Risk Window: AI Predicts Downside Drift📅 Forecast Window: July 30 – August 30, 2025 📡 Powered by VolanX Protocol v3.0 | WaverVanir DSS 🏛️ MACRO SETUP – JULY 31 FOMC: 🏦 Fed Funds Rate: 5.50% (expected hold) 🧊 Inflation: Cooling but sticky (CPI ~3.2%, PCE ~2.6%) 💼 Labor Market: Slowing but not collapsing 📈 CME FedWatch: 91% odds of no hike, but tone may be hawkish 🧠 Key Risk: Liquidity compression or prolonged pause = risk-off conditions 🧠 VOLANX PROTOCOL FORECAST (30-Day): 🔸 Current Price: $636.29 🔹 AI Target: $627.46 (−1.4%) 🟠 Signal: HOLD 🧮 Direction Accuracy: 85.5% ⚠️ Model Confidence: −2.049 (bearish drift) 📊 Volatility Forecast: Low (~1.36%) = slow bleed conditions 📉 WAVERVANIR DSS SIGNAL: 🔸 Sentiment Score: 78 🔻 15D Forecast: $630.49 (−0.8%) 🔻 30D Forecast: $616.68 (−2.9%) 📉 Bias: Mild Bearish 🛑 Signal: Hedge exposure, reduce risk, do not chase longs 🔥 OPTIONS FLOW SNAPSHOT: 🚨 $1.53M Call Sweep (645C, Aug 8) = Speculative breakout bet 📉 Multiple Put Sweeps (633–634P, Aug 4) = Institutional hedging 🟢 Mid-dated 638C/645C flows (Aug 15–22) show straddle-the-news positioning 📐 TECHNICAL ZONES TO WATCH: 📉 Support Levels: $627 = Fib + VolanX AI Target $616 = DSS Forecast + liquidity pivot 📈 Resistance Levels: $639 → Gap close $645 → Major breakout trigger (options magnet) 🕯️ Structure: Distribution bias → No clear momentum unless Fed surprises dovish 🎯 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK: Scenario Probability SPY Reaction 🟡 Hawkish Hold 65% Pullback toward $627 ⚪ Neutral Hold 25% Choppy → $639 max 🟢 Dovish Surprise 10% Spike to $645+ 📌 VolanX Protocol Guidance: "This is a defense window. AI models and options flow both suggest uncertainty, not conviction. Trim longs, hedge risk, and wait for post-FOMC confirmation." #SPY #VolanX #WaverVanir #FOMC #MacroForecast #OptionsFlow #DSS #SMC #LiquidityTraps #SmartMoney #TradingSignals #AITrading #FederalReserve #TechEarnings #RiskWindow #HawkishFed #FedHold #MacroAI
AMEX:SPY
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
3
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 31, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 31, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates — Dissent Indicates Division The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50%. Notably, two governors—Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—dissented in favor of a 25 bp rate cut, underscoring internal divisions amid growing political pressure 📈 Strong Q2 Growth, But No Rate-Cut Signal U.S. GDP expanded at a 3.0% annualized rate in Q2, rebounding sharply from Q1's contraction. Despite this, Powell emphasized persistent inflation, particularly from tariffs, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious policy stance 🛢️ Oil Climbs as Tariff Tensions Rise Brent crude rose to ~$73.51 and WTI to ~$70.37 on fears of supply disruptions tied to President Trump’s threats of new tariffs on Russian oil and new tariffs imposed on Brazil and South Korea 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Thursday, July 31: 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims (week ending July 26) Initial claims rose to 222,000, up from 217,000 previously—an early gauge of labor-market trends 8:30 AM ET – Employment Cost Index (Q2) Quarterly growth in labor costs edged lower to 0.8%, down from 0.9%—a signal of moderate wage pressures 8:30 AM ET – Personal Income (June) Data released on household income and spending patterns—crucial for assessing consumer resilience heading into Q3 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #jobs #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Elliott Wave + Parallel Channel AnalysisThis chart offers a detailed Elliott Wave count for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) on the daily timeframe, combined with a structured parallel channel system to highlight key trend dynamics. 🔍 Elliott Wave Structure: The price is currently advancing in what appears to be Wave (5) of Primary Wave ⑤, suggesting we may be in the late stages of a major impulsive cycle. Each impulsive and corrective wave is clearly labeled, with the internal structure confirming classic Elliott Wave symmetry. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension around $689 marks a critical upside target and potential completion zone for Wave (5). Wave (4) held well at the lower channel boundary and completed near $480, establishing a solid base for the current advance. 📊 Channel Insights: A system of parallel channels is applied to capture the overall trend and momentum structure. Price is climbing toward the upper boundary of the long-term ascending channel, which has acted as dynamic resistance in previous waves. The median lines have provided reliable support and resistance throughout the trend, making them important reference levels moving forward. ⚠️ Key Technical Levels: Resistance: $689.44 (Wave ⑤ target at 1.618 Fib extension) Support Zones: $609 (prior Wave (3) high), $575 (mid-channel support), and $480 (major cycle low) A confirmed break above $690 could suggest a parabolic move, but risk of reversal grows as the upper channel is tested. 📈 Market Outlook: SPY remains in a strong uptrend but is nearing a major confluence of wave and channel resistance. A completed five-wave sequence would suggest the potential for a higher-degree correction, possibly leading into a Wave A/B/C scenario. Short-term bullish bias remains valid while above $609, but watch for divergence or exhaustion signs near $689–$700.
AMEX:SPYLong
by msezng
The Current State and Future Direction Of The S&P 5006/9/24 Created By Joeseph Emanuel Dennis Idea: Critical area and critical moment in not only the NASDAQ but for the entire bull market otherwise we'll start a prolonged retracement or an unlikely bear market turnaround. My SPY target remains 600 based on previous positive FOMC, CPI, Job Report Data, Rate Cuts, Elections, and Current Institutional development. On the technical side, the higher high movement began at the start of 2023 my initial target was 480 and I was correct! after the September weekly retracement on SPY, we have been pushing higher despite January's negative economic data and the conflict with IRAN. The daily is set to move currently above the 20MA with the weekly bullish and the monthly extremely bullish. IMPORTANT WEEK AHEAD! the future data will determine if the bullish trend will progress onward FOMC meeting will either scare people out of the market or drive the market into a rally along with central bank stocks. My bet is bullish even though inflation is record high thanks to the Biden administration we somehow keep pushing higher makes you wonder if the positive economic data is even accurate is employment being at a record high is that a good thing? Many Americans find them selfs more with two jobs or even three jobs is that a positive thing? Underemployment is also at record highs are these post-college graduates getting the salary they deserve or are they settling with two low-wage jobs? Nonetheless, the bull market will rain on with a summer rally. I will keep watching in case something turns around the enemy isn't Jerome Powell it's the liars at the white house and the propaganda creators over at MSNBC. Note: This goes for Bitcoin as well! 80K here we go!
AMEX:SPYLong
by HumanSpider
2
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 30, 2025🔮 Nightly  AMEX:SPY  /  SP:SPX  Scenarios for July 30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🧭 Fed Holds Steady Amid Uncertainty As the FOMC enters its July 29–30 meeting, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, even as one or two governors may dissent in favor of rate cuts amid mixed economic data. Recent strength in consumer spending contrasts with weakness in housing and construction. 🌐 U.S.–China Trade Talks Resumed in Stockholm Talks are under way aimed at extending the tariff truce before the August 12 deadline. Both sides described progress as constructive, though analysts remain cautious on the timeline and potential outcomes. 🛢️ Oil Up / Dollar Firmer, But Risks Remain Brent crude hit ~$72.50/barrel (+3.5%) while WTI rose to ~$69.20 on a mix of geopolitical tension (possible new Russia tariffs) and trade optimism. The U.S. dollar edged higher following the U.S.–EU trade agreement. 📈 IMF Revises Up Global Growth—but Flags Tariff Risks The IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast to 3.0% and maintained 3.1% for 2026, citing pre-emptive consumer demand—but warned that ongoing U.S. tariffs and policy inconsistency could dampen momentum. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 30: FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady. Powell’s remarks will be closely watched for signals on the timing of future cuts and views on inflation and labor markets. Advance Q2 U.S. GDP Estimate The first look at Q2 growth is expected around +1.9% YoY, potentially validating a rebound after Q1’s contraction. June PCE & Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index) The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Markets will monitor if core inflation remains elevated, which may reinforce policy caution. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This summary is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #GDP #inflation #trade #tariffs #markets
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
2
$SPY rolling over, potentially to new lows?While I was early to the idea (like usual), still don't think the thesis will be wrong. I still believe we're going to see a large move down from here. Yesterday's price action made me pretty confident a top was in (TBD). We had positive news and the market couldn't rally on that positive news and we ended up closing at the lows -- indicating to me there's no more buyers. Today we have treasuries, the dollar and volatility all rallying while equities selloff, a classic risk off signal. You also have crypto selling off too. I think we see a large risk off move from here on out, the target is the $440 area (extreme down to $400), but if we find support at one of the other levels above that, there's potential for us to rally from there. Will have to see how price action plays out over the coming weeks.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
21
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 29, 2025🔮 Nightly  AMEX:SPY  /  SP:SPX  Scenarios for July 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 U.S.–EU Trade Deal Sparks Optimism The U.S. and EU signed a trade framework allowing a 15% tariff rate on most EU imports, averting harsher penalties. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at fresh record highs, supported by upbeat tech earnings sentiment—Tesla advanced on a new $16.5B AI chip deal with Samsung—while U.S.–China trade talks resume in Stockholm. Fed Likely to Hold Rates; Political Pressure Mounts The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% at the July 29–30 FOMC meeting. Chair Powell faces growing political pressure from President Trump to cut rates and concerns about central bank independence remain elevated. Trade Talks Extension to Avoid Tariff Hike Deadline The August 1 tariff deadline looms. Markets are watching to see if trade deals with China, Canada, and the EU extend the pause or risk new tariffs. Volume in AI/chip stocks and industrials reflects sensitivity to trade developments. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 29 FOMC Meeting Begins — All eyes on Fed rate decision and updated projections. GDP (Advance Q2 Estimate) — Expected around +1.9% on signs of economic rebound. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This summary is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #tariffs #PCE #jobs #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Weekly Chart: Rising Wedge Signals Imminent PullbackSPY Weekly Chart Overview (Current Price: ~637) 🧭 Context: Indicators: TEMA (13/21/50) & RSI (14) Price is extended, RSI near overbought (65.87), and forming a rising wedge — a bearish pattern. 🔻 Bearish Setup: Rising wedge signals possible reversal. Momentum weakening despite higher highs. Price extended above TEMA — a 600–610 pullback looks likely. 📊 Key Levels:Resistance: 672 Support: 611–600 → 578 → 488 Break below 600 could trigger broad downside. 🟢 Bullish Case: Breakout above 672 with volume = momentum continuation (AI/FOMO driven). 🎯 Conclusion: SPY is technically stretched. Risk/reward favors caution. Watch for pullback to 600–610
AMEX:SPYShort
by JerryDaniel
Trading as a Probabilistic ProcessTrading as a Probabilistic Process As mentioned in the previous post , involvement in the market occurs for a wide range of reasons, which creates structural disorder. As a result, trading must be approached with the understanding that outcomes are variable. While a setup may reach a predefined target, it may also result in partial continuation, overextension, no follow-through, or immediate reversal. We trade based on known variables and informed expectations, but the outcome may still fall outside them. Therefore each individual trade should be viewed as a random outcome. A valid setup could lose; an invalid one could win. It is possible to follow every rule and still take a loss. It is equally possible to break all rules and still see profits. These inconsistencies can cluster into streaks, several wins or losses in a row, without indicating anything about the applied system. To navigate this, traders should think in terms of sample size. A single trade provides limited insight, relevant information only emerges over a sequence of outcomes. Probabilistic trading means acting on repeatable conditions that show positive expectancy over time, while accepting that the result of any individual trade is unknowable. Expected Value Expected value is a formula to measure the long-term performance of a trading system. It represents the average outcome per trade over time, factoring in both wins and losses: Expected Value = (Win Rate × Average Win) – (Loss Rate × Average Loss) This principle can be demonstrated through simulation. A basic system with a 50% win rate and a 1.1 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio was tested over 500 trades across 20 independent runs. Each run began with a $50,000 account and applied a fixed risk of $1000 per trade. The setup, rules, and parameters remained identical throughout; the only difference was the random sequence in which wins and losses occurred. While most runs clustered around a profitable outcome consistent with the positive expected value, several outliers demonstrated the impact of sequencing. When 250 trades had been done, one account was up more than 60% while another was down nearly 40%. In one run, the account more than doubled by the end of the 500 trades. In another, it failed to generate any meaningful profit across the entire sequence. These differences occurred not because of flaws in the system, but because of randomness in the order of outcomes. These are known as Monte Carlo simulations, a method used to estimate possible outcomes of a system by repeatedly running it through randomized sequences. The technique is applied in many fields to model uncertainty and variation. In trading, it can be used to observe how a strategy performs across different sequences of wins and losses, helping to understand the range of outcomes that may result from probability. Trading System Variations Two different strategies can produce the same expected value, even if they operate on different terms. This is not a theoretical point, but a practical one that influences what kind of outcomes can be expected. For example, System A operates with a high win rate and a lower reward-to-risk ratio. It wins 70% of the time with a 0.5 R, while System B takes the opposite approach and wins 30% of the time with a 2.5 R. If the applied risk is $1,000, the following results appear: System A = (0.70 × 500) − (0.30 × 1,000) = 350 − 300 = $50 System B = (0.30 × 2,500) − (0.70 × 1,000) = 750 − 700 = $50 Both systems average a profit of $50 per trade, yet they are very different to trade and experience. Both are valid approaches if applied consistently. What matters is not the math alone, but whether the method can be executed consistently across the full range of outcomes. Let’s look a bit closer into the simulations and practical implications. The simulation above shows the higher winrate, lower reward system with an initial $100,000 balance, which made 50 independent runs of 1000 trades each. It produced an average final balance of $134,225. In terms of variance, the lowest final balance reached $99,500 while the best performer $164,000. Drawdowns remained modest, with an average of 7.67%, and only 5% of the runs ended below the initial $100,000 balance. This approach delivers more frequent rewards and a smoother equity curve, but requires strict control in terms of loss size. The simulation above shows the lower winrate, higher reward system with an initial $100,000 balance, which made 50 independent runs of 1000 trades each. It produced an average final balance of $132,175. The variance was wider, where some run ended near $86,500 and another moved past $175,000. The drawdowns were deeper and more volatile, with an average of 21%, with the worst at 45%. This approach encounters more frequent losses but has infrequent winners that provide the performance required. This approach requires patience and mental resilience to handle frequent losses. Practical Implications and Risk While these simulations are static and simplified compared to real-world trading, the principle remains applicable. These results reinforce the idea that trading outcomes must be viewed probabilistically. A reasonable system can produce a wide range of results in the short term. Without sufficient sample size and risk control, even a valid approach may fail to perform. The purpose is not to predict the outcome of one trade, but to manage risk in a way that allows the account to endure variance and let statistical edge develop over time. This randomness cannot be eliminated, but the impact can be controlled from position sizing. In case the size is too large, even a profitable system can be wiped out during an unfavorable sequence. This consideration is critical to survive long enough for the edge to express itself. This is also the reason to remain detached from individual trades. When a trade is invalidated or risk has been exceeded, it should be treated as complete. Each outcome is part of a larger sample. Performance can only be evaluated through cumulative data, not individual trades.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by StockLeave
SPY 15-Min — Weak-High Sweep in Play• Discount BOS at 603.95 → impulsive leg to 606.7 (0.886) • Weak high tagged at 607.16 – expecting continuation to 1.382 ≈ 608.61 then 1.854 ≈ 610.92 • Invalidation if price closes below 605.45 session VWAP band • Targets: 608.61 → 610.92 • Risk: stop 604.9 (below 0.5 Fib) VolanX bias remains risk-on while micro structure stair-steps above the 9-EMA channel. Educational only – not financial advice #SPY #SMP500 #OrderFlow #Fib #VolanX #WaverVanir
AMEX:SPYLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 28–August 1, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 28–August 1, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Steady, Faces Political Pressure The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates at 4.25%–4.50% during its FOMC meeting midweek. While rates are unchanged, political pressure from President Trump continues as calls intensify for rate cuts and questions arise over the Fed’s independence—including dissent from Governors Waller and Bowman. 📦 Trade Truce Extends & New Deal With EU A new trade framework with the EU reduces tariffs to 15%, easing tensions. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese trade teams begin talks in Stockholm on Monday aiming to avoid an early-August tariff deadline. 💻 Tech and Mega-Cap Earnings Spotlight This week features earnings from tech giants including Meta, Microsoft (Wednesday), followed by Amazon and Apple (Thursday). Markets will prioritize forward guidance around AI investments, capital expenditures, and sales trends. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, July 28 No major releases 📅 Tuesday, July 29 Chicago PMI (July flash) – early indicator of regional manufacturing trends. Global PMIs – flash readings for Europe and Asia gauge economic health. 📅 Wednesday, July 30 FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference – investors will scrutinize tone, forward guidance on rates, labor markets, and inflation. Q2 U.S. GDP (Advance Estimate) – expected at ~1.9%, signaling rebound after Q1 contraction. 📅 Thursday, July 31 June PCE & Core PCE Indexes – Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Core PCE expected at ~2.7% YoY. Consumer Confidence (July) – key for household spending trends. Trade Balance (June) – provides data on U.S. import/export dynamics. 📅 Friday, August 1 July Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment & Wage Data – forecast for ~102,000 new jobs and ~4.2% unemployment; markets await for labor-market cooling signs. Tariff Deadline – new tariffs loom unless trade agreements with EU, Canada, China etc. materialize by today’s cutoff. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This summary is educational and informational only. It is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #earnings #inflation #tariffs #GDP #PCE #jobs #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
[$SPY] S&P500: The Big mini Short or Why hedging is not a crimeAMEX:SPY CBOE:XSP No financial advice. For Entertainment purpose only. Have you ever considered to protect yourself and wake up from the 'Long-Only-Delirium'? Now is the time.. do you hear the cracking in the bond-market? Rate cutting will solve it? No reason to panic? Doomsday i*diot? We will see... 😈 tic tac tic tac This time THETA is against us, but GAMMA is bleeding. 📊 Strategy Characteristics +++Note: We set this one as a 'Diagonal Ratio Put Spread' > Diagonal: Because the options have different expiration dates (Sept 19 + Sept 30) > Ratio: Because we are buying more puts than selling (4:2 ratio) > Put Spread: Because both legs are puts with the same strike "We are all at a wonderful ball where the champagne sparkles in every glass and soft laughter falls upon the summer air. We know, by the rules, that at some moment, the Black Horseman will come shattering through the great terrace doors, wreaking vengeance and scattering the survivors. Those who leave early are saved, but the ball is so splendid no one wants to leave while there is still time, so that everyone keeps asking, ‘What time is it? What time is it?’ But none of the clocks have any hands." ~George Goodman
AMEX:SPYShort
by OiconomiX_io
[$SPY] S&P500: The Big mini Short or Why hedging is not a crimeAMEX:SPY No financial advice. For Entertainment purpose only. Have you ever considered to protect yourself and wake up from the 'Long-Only-Delirium'? Now is the time.. do you hear the cracking in the bond-market? Rate cutting will solve it? No reason to panic? Doomsday i*diot? We will see... 😈 tic tac tic tac This time THETA is against us, but GAMMA is bleeding. "We are all at a wonderful ball where the champagne sparkles in every glass and soft laughter falls upon the summer air. We know, by the rules, that at some moment, the Black Horseman will come shattering through the great terrace doors, wreaking vengeance and scattering the survivors. Those who leave early are saved, but the ball is so splendid no one wants to leave while there is still time, so that everyone keeps asking, ‘What time is it? What time is it?’ But none of the clocks have any hands." ~George Goodman
AMEX:SPYShort
by OiconomiX_io
SPY Forming A Bearish Head and Shoulders PatternSPX Technical Update – Bearish Watch Chart Focus: S&P 500 Index (30-Min Chart) Date: July 21, 2025 🧠 Pattern Watch: Classic Head & Shoulders Formation A clear head and shoulders pattern has emerged on the short-term 30-minute chart, signaling a potential bearish reversal after the recent uptrend. Left Shoulder: Around 630.75 Head: Peaked near 633.00 Right Shoulder: Capped just under 631.00 Neckline: Sits near the 628.75–628.20 zone, marked by a yellow upward-sloping trendline and tested support. 📉 Bearish Breakdown in Play The price has now broken below the neckline zone at 628.75 with increasing volume — an early confirmation of a bearish break. The break beneath the rising wedge support and neckline suggests increased downside risk in the near term. 🧭 Technical Levels to Watch Key Level Type Action 633.00 Resistance (Head) Likely capped unless strong reversal 631.00 Resistance Right shoulder, overhead rejection 628.75 Neckline Support (Broken) Bearish trigger zone 628.20 Intraday support Final support test (now resistance) 625.50 Initial Target Breakdown projection 622.75 Lower Support Measured move target zone 📌 Measured Move Projection: A break of ~4.5 points from head to neckline projects a target near 624–625 in the near term. 📊 Volume Profile Note Volume expanded on the neckline break, supporting the validity of the pattern. Recent bars show a rise in selling pressure as bulls failed to reclaim above 630 after the breakdown. 🔍 Summary Outlook Bearish Bias: Valid while below 628.75 neckline resistance. Invalidation Zone: A sustained close above 631.00 would invalidate the bearish pattern. Watch for Retest: Any bounce into 628.75–629.25 could act as a retest and fade opportunity. 📆 Next Steps: Short-term traders should monitor price action around 625.50 and 622.75 as the most likely zones for support. Watch for further confirmation with broader index weakness or macro catalysts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by QuantAi-Trend
SPY CONTINUES IN AN ASCENDING WEDGE PATTERNThe SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is currently exhibiting an ascending wedge pattern on the 30-minute chart, a bearish technical pattern that often signals a potential reversal or selloff when confirmed. Below, I’ll explain the ascending wedge pattern, identify key levels to watch for a potential selloff, and provide context based on recent market sentiment. Since I cannot view the real-time chart, I’ll base the analysis on the characteristics of an ascending wedge and recent posts on X that discuss SPY’s price action, ensuring a critical approach to the data. What is an Ascending Wedge Pattern? An ascending wedge (or rising wedge) is a bearish chart pattern formed when the price consolidates between two upward-sloping trendlines that converge over time. The upper trendline (resistance) connects higher highs, and the lower trendline (support) connects higher lows, creating a narrowing price range. This pattern typically indicates that bullish momentum is weakening, as buyers are pushing prices higher but with diminishing strength, often leading to a breakdown below the lower trendline. Key characteristics of an ascending wedge include: Converging Trendlines: Both the support and resistance lines slope upward, with the support line often steeper than the resistance line. Decreasing Volume: Trading volume typically declines as the pattern forms, reflecting reduced buying conviction. A spike in volume often accompanies a breakout or breakdown. Bearish Implication: In an uptrend, the ascending wedge signals a potential reversal to the downside. In a downtrend, it may act as a continuation pattern, but the bearish bias remains. Breakout Confirmation: A convincing break below the lower trendline, preferably with increased volume, confirms the bearish reversal. A retest of the broken support (now resistance) may occur before further declines. The pattern typically forms over 3–4 weeks but can appear on shorter timeframes like the 30-minute chart, making it relevant for intraday or short-term traders.investopedia.comen.wikipedia.org SPY’s Current Ascending Wedge on the 30-Minute Chart Given that SPY is in an ascending wedge on the 30-minute chart, we can infer the following based on recent posts on X and general technical analysis principles: Pattern Context: The ascending wedge suggests SPY has been making higher highs and higher lows in a tightening range, indicating a potential exhaustion of the bullish trend. Recent posts on X (e.g., @AskPerplexity on July 16, 2025) noted a rising wedge in SPY with a breakdown through the lower trendline, suggesting bearish momentum. Another post (@YakshuMadaan on July 15, 2025) mentioned a wedge breaking below 6220, targeting 6050 on the S&P 500 index ( SP:SPX ), which correlates to SPY levels around $605–$610. Key Levels to Watch: Lower Trendline (Support): The critical level to monitor is the lower trendline of the wedge, which connects the higher lows. A decisive break below this level (e.g., a close below on the 30-minute chart with strong volume) signals a bearish breakdown and potential selloff. Based on recent X posts, this level may have been around $622 (equivalent to ~6220 on SP:SPX ) recently, but you should confirm the exact level on the current chart. Upper Trendline (Resistance): The upper trendline connects the higher highs and acts as resistance. If SPY fails to break above this level, it reinforces the bearish bias. This could be near recent highs, potentially around $630–$635, depending on the chart’s progression. Support Zones Post-Breakdown: If the lower trendline breaks, key support levels to watch include: $590–$600: A post on X highlighted this as a major support zone based on volume profile analysis, likely corresponding to a prior consolidation area or gap fill. $605–$610: Another post suggested a target of 6050 on SP:SPX , translating to roughly $605–$610 for SPY, aligning with a significant retracement level. Retest Level: After a breakdown, the price may retest the broken lower trendline (now resistance). For example, if the breakdown occurs at $622, a retest could see SPY rally back to $622–$625 before resuming the decline.ig.com Volume and Indicators: Volume: Look for declining volume as the wedge forms, followed by a spike on the breakdown to confirm the move. Low volume during the wedge suggests waning bullish momentum.xs.com Relative Strength Index (RSI): An RSI above 70 near the upper trendline or showing bearish divergence (lower RSI highs while price makes higher highs) strengthens the case for a selloff.xs.com Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): A bearish crossover (MACD line crossing below the signal line) near the upper trendline can confirm weakening momentum.xs.com Potential Selloff Triggers: A close below the lower trendline on the 30-minute chart, especially with a spike in volume, is the primary trigger for a selloff. For example, a break below $622 (if that’s the current support) could initiate a move toward $605–$610 or lower to $590–$600. A failed retest of the broken trendline (e.g., SPY rallies to $622–$625 after breaking down but fails to reclaim the trendline) would confirm bearish continuation. Broader Market Context: Recent X posts suggest market concerns about macroeconomic factors (e.g., interest rate fears, policy shifts) could amplify a selloff, especially if technical levels break.
AMEX:SPY
by QuantAi-Trend
1
SPY Will Collapse! SELL! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the SPY next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 637.01 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 628.63 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
SPY 4HSSPY continues its bullish trend after breaking above the ascending channel. The recent breakout shows strong momentum, supported by institutional absorption around the 620–615 zone. This area now acts as key support. Upside target: 645 Extended target: 650 Downside target if momentum fails: 620–615 zone, followed by 595 #SPY #globaltrade #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #finance #money #forex #trading #price #business #currency #blockchain #crypto #cryptocurrency #airdrop #btc #ethereum #ico #altcoin #cryptonews #Bitcoin #ipo
AMEX:SPYLong
by TWMMPRO
2