Trade ideas
SPY CORRECTION SOON?Technical Outlook:
- Head and Shoulders (forming)
- Overbought RSI (above 70)
- Signaling Bearish Divergence
Fundamental Outlook:
Economic weakness looms as rising inflation meets sluggish growth, fueling stagflation fears. With markets on edge, a spooky September sell-off could be triggered by tightening conditions and fading investor confidence.
$SPY: Systematic Behavior 3 Frames of Reference:
An angle from the top (beginning of decline) to a point of resistance where the price got further dumped to form a bottom. This emphasizes some boundary that needs to be broken in order to proceed to transition phase.
Also would be nice to have the angle of entire tariff crash so the fib spacings could reflect the shockwaves of that event.
For the 3rd ( as 3rd axis in geodesics ), we would cover what immediately grew after crash establishing a common angle.
In cases 2 and 3, the common criterion for choosing the angle was that in both cases the nested cycles on smaller scale were completed confirming the measured angle. Watching for consistency in shapes is essential for capturing the interplay of multiple forces.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 25, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 25, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Data-heavy morning: Multiple macro releases hit at 8:30 AM, setting tone across bonds, USD, and equities.
💬 Fed chorus: Packed lineup of Fed speakers keeps policy narrative in focus.
💻 Tech + rates tension: AMEX:XLK flows remain sensitive to bond yield direction post-FOMC.
🛢️ Energy lens: Oil volatility continues to act as an inflation wildcard.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — GDP (Q2, third estimate)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Aug)
🗣️ Fed Speakers:
• 8:20 AM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed)
• 9:00 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) & Jeff Schmid (Kansas City Fed)
• 10:00 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision)
• 1:00 PM — Michael Barr (Fed Gov.)
• 1:40 PM — Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed)
• 3:30 PM — Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #GDP #joblessclaims #durablegoods #housing #Fed #Powell #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
SPY S&P 500 etf Oversold on the RSI ! 2025 Price Target ! The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is flashing a major buy signal, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sitting at 28.33 — firmly in oversold territory. Historically, every time SPY has entered oversold levels on the RSI, institutional buyers have stepped in aggressively, driving sharp rebounds in the following weeks and months.
The last time SPY dipped below the 30 RSI threshold was during market pullbacks in 2022 and 2023 — both of which were followed by significant rallies as institutions capitalized on discounted valuations. The current setup is no different. With earnings growth stabilizing, inflation cooling, and the Federal Reserve signaling a potential shift toward rate cuts in the second half of the year, the backdrop for a recovery is aligning perfectly.
Technically, SPY is also approaching key support levels that have held strong in past market corrections. The combination of an oversold RSI and strong institutional appetite at these levels creates a compelling case for a bounce.
My price target for SPY by year-end is $640, representing over 15% upside from current levels. With sentiment stretched to the downside and technical indicators flashing green, SPY looks primed for a sharp and sustained rebound. Now could be the perfect time to position for the next leg higher.
$SPY REVERSE CUP AND HANDLE part 2.I guess the reverse cup and handle I had drawn out on the 5 minute and one minute chart worked out too bad I did not have a put option in place. I would have recovered some of my losses chasing the rabbit on $ORCL. I'm not going to lie this market has me shook. I seriously prefer crypto. Participating in a market that is this effected by someone talking is ridiculous. What I am trying to learn is price action. I am also learning to use the 50 day Moving Average indicator. I am not fully comfortable. I have been able to use FIB retracement tool along with some other indicators whether it be a chat pattern or the MVA.
So, if you zoom in to the area where consolidation is taking place using the FIB retracement and support and resistance lines it may touch $662-$663. If it breaks out with a strong green candle we may have a recovery, but it breaks out lower below support with a strong red candle you will see a breakdown further down to previous supports $658, $654, $652.70 To close a big gap,
The reason I also say it may touch $662-$663 is because we should be tracking that the candles have to either bounce off of or tread about the 50-day MVA. So, either way there is money to be made but once this month and the holidays are through expect this to breakout much higher to $700 if trump gets his way. AKA Printer go BRRRRR. He's a master market manipulator and Perma bull
In the meantime, sit and wait for a good breakout I may have to exit my current position at a loss. Scary times we are living in. Get your life right with The Lord Jesus Christ.
AS ALWAYS THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, PURELY USING MY SELF-TAUGHT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION. GODBLESS YOU ALL AND I PRAY YOU ALL HIT YOUR GOALS THIS MONTH.
SPY Trapped Between 670 Resistance & 662 Support📖 Crown Point Research
1. Date & Time
📌 Date: 24th September 2025
📌 Time: 08:45 PM IST
2. Fundamental News
“US Treasury yields eased slightly, but Fed officials kept policy guidance hawkish. Headlines are mixed: tech optimism vs inflation caution. Market moves remain primarily technical.”
3. Public Sentiment & Human Behavior
• Retail: Chasing intraday bounces expecting a reversal.
• Institutions: Distributed supply at resistance, rotated flows cautiously.
• Social Signal: Headlines read “soft landing confidence,” but structure shows fragile micro pullbacks.
4. Current Structure
Macro :
• Resistance: 668–670
• Support: 655–652
• Stage: Macro Maturity → candles show fragile tops
Micro :
• Resistance: 665–667
• Support: 661.5–662
• Behaviour: Controlled pullback underway.
5. Projection (Paths)
Primary Path (65%):
Retest 665–667, then continuation lower toward 661.5–662.0.
Alternate Path (25%):
Hold above 665 → extension into 670
Low Path (10%):
Breakout beyond 670 → only possible with strong global positive catalyst (policy/economic shock).
Overrides:
Bullish Override : If positive news , Breakout extends beyond 670 toward 675
Bearish Override (3/3 pillars align): If negative news, Collapse accelerates toward 657–655 directly, bypassing pullback supports.
6. Pullback Levels
• Shallow: 664.5–665.0
• Medium: 667.0 barrier
• Deep: 670–671
7. Final View
Bias: Bearish until 667 is reclaimed with conviction.
• Path remains toward 662 with extension possible to 655 if bearish override triggers.
8. Essence (Philosophy Line)
“Until barriers flip with institutional strength, downside paths remain dominant.”
9. Disclaimer
⚠️ “This analysis is shared for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendation. Market decisions are entirely your own responsibility.”
Reverse Cup and Handle On SPY.So, I am looking at spy on the 1 minute and I see this beautiful arch It got a cup, and the handle is either forming or formed. So, I double check on the 30, 1 hour the 4 hour and the daily. The Daily is kind of eh. So, I can see it going down on the 1 minute if the Handle has formed and touching 660, But on other time frames like the daily using a 50-day moving average along with a support and resistance line you can see it go as low as $650, Since I am usually a crypto bro and Now I am trying my hand in stocks. It's not even the volatility that I struggle with its the Market reaction to the news. You can see something like a reverse cup and handle form and if trump says, " All American citizens should be on the lookout for SPYies." All of a sudden, the AMEX:SPY will do the opposite of what should happen when a cup and handle is forming. Although I regret putting in my position to soon and not looking at the chart first I put in a long call for $675- to $680 now I feel like. I should stick back to paper trading crypto at least I was more successful. I guess it's just a learning curve for me. But we shall see hopefully some good new tomorrow lol.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, BE ADVISED THIS IS MY OPINION AND JUST BASSED OFF OF WHAT I LEARN FROM LEARNING TRADING STRATGIES ON YOUTUBE. GODBLESS YOU ALL AND GOODLUCK. I need to do better.
Lesson learned this week.
Dont chase the rabbit
Look at the chart first before you put in a trade. I am about to blow up my account in a bit. SMH Went from $260 to $830 in a month doing swing trades. Not im back down to $300, chasing the rabbit and spending money moving. Ugh wish me luck its hard out here for a PAMP.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 24, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Month-end positioning: Flows light as traders prep for Thursday’s 🚩 GDP + Jobless Claims.
💻 Mega-cap drift: Tech leadership remains central with $AAPL/ NASDAQ:NVDA volatility post-Powell.
💵 Rates + housing: Home affordability narrative continues to weigh on broader risk tone.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — New Home Sales (Aug)
⏰ 4:10 PM — San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #housing #Powell #economy #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
SPY Sep 23 – Bulls Pushing Toward 668–670, Gamma Still in PlayPrice Action & Setup (1-Hour Chart)
SPY has been grinding higher after last week’s consolidation, now trading around 666.7 and pressing the upper end of the short-term channel. Immediate supports line up at 665 and 662, with deeper backup near 657. As long as SPY holds above 665, the structure favors another push to the 668–670 zone.
Momentum Read
MACD remains strongly positive with rising histogram, showing momentum is still alive. Stoch RSI is elevated (near 90), which could lead to short pauses or small pullbacks, but no reversal signals yet.
GEX (Options Flow) Confluence
Gamma exposure is bullish:
* Highest positive GEX / Call resistance: ~668–669
* 2nd Call Wall: near 667
* Next Call Wall: around 670
* Major Put Support: 661 with a secondary wall near 655
Holding above 665 forces dealers to hedge higher, which can keep the squeeze alive toward 668–670.
Trading Plan
* Upside continuation: Enter long on a confirmed hourly close above 667.2. Target 668–670. Stop just below 665.
* Dip buy: A pullback to 665 or 662 that holds on volume can be a low-risk reload.
* Quick short: Only if 661 breaks with heavy volume, aiming for 657 and 655.
Option Angle
Short-dated calls in the 668–670 strike range remain attractive if SPY stays over 665. Protective puts near 661 can work if breakdown signals appear.
Bottom Line
Bulls hold the upper hand as long as SPY stays above 665. A clean push over 667 could quickly extend to 668–670, with gamma hedging likely to assist.
Disclaimer: This is for educational discussion only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk.
Let's keep an eye out. Who else is seeing the same thing.
I am a bit worried at how people think this is a great 👍🏾 market. People buying in now wanting to catch some of these gains, its too late. The Fear&Greed Index reading around 63% more Greed 🐷🐖, how?
Some people might be left holding the 🎒 in 2026.
1. Let's pray
2. Take some profits, let the rest ride
3. Look forward a pullback & dollar cost
4. If you got it, hedge/look for shorts
Hope you all had a green 💚 year, give God his glory and give our 10% to charity.
Take care.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 23, 2025 🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 23, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Post-Fed digestion: Equities and bonds still recalibrating after last week’s SEP + Powell tone.
💻 Mega-cap watch: Tech + AI flows continue to drive AMEX:XLK sentiment.
🌐 Central bank chatter: A busy Fed speaker slate gives extra volatility into month-end.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 9:00 AM — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech
⏰ 🚩 9:45 AM — S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep) — Services & Manufacturing
⏰ 10:00 AM — Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech
⏰ 🚩 12:35 PM — Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Powell #Fed #PMI #economy #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
Next Leg down startingThe S&P 500 has been trading inside this rising channel for the last 3 and a half years. As you can see it has bounced off the bottom of the rising channel 4 different times and it is now back at the top of the channel. Price action gapped above the channel overnight but immediately sold off pre-market back inside the channel and completely reversed the move despite strong earnings from MSFT and META. This is very bearish and signals a move back down to the bottom of the channel once again and given that its already bounced off the bottom of the channel 4 different times, a 5th hit would have a high probability of breaking below the channel, which I would give a greater than 70% probability of playing out. If this happens, we will see much lower prices in this coming bear market.
SPY Sep 22 TA – “Grinding Higher or Ready for a Breather?”
1️⃣ Big Picture on the 1-Hour Chart
* Price action: SPY closed near 663.40, still tracking inside an upward channel. Buyers continue to defend the midline, keeping the short-term uptrend alive.
* Key levels:
* Resistance: 665.1 → 667.5 (recent high and strong call wall)
* Support: 659.5 → 657 (mid-channel & HVL from options data)
* Indicators:
* MACD is positive but flattening, signaling fading momentum.
* Stoch RSI is elevated near 85, which may point to a near-term pause or light pullback.
Overall trend stays bullish but a little extended; a sideways consolidation wouldn’t surprise.
2️⃣ GEX / Options Flow
* Strong call walls at 665–667.5 and a key gamma shelf around 659.5.
* Below, 655 and 650 show heavy put walls, with a large gamma pocket that could accelerate a dip if 657 breaks.
* IVR stands at 13.3, suggesting option premiums remain moderate and potentially attractive for quick strategies.
This options picture supports the idea of SPY chopping between 657 and 665 early in the week unless a fresh catalyst pushes it through 667.
3️⃣ Trading Thoughts & Suggestions
* Scalp / day trade: A clean break above 665–667.5 with strong volume could target 670 and beyond. Tight stop under 663.
* Support bounce: If early weakness brings price toward 659.5–657 and it holds, watch for a rebound back to 663+.
* Fade setup: A hard rejection at 665–667.5 may open a move back toward 657.
4️⃣ Bottom Line
SPY remains in a healthy uptrend, but momentum is slowing. Bulls want to see a sustained move over 667 to keep the rally alive, while bears look for a break below 657 to shift control.
Disclaimer: This is just market opinion for educational discussion. It’s not financial advice. Always manage your own risk before trading.
SPY Long-Term Elliott Wave Roadmap📊 SPY Long-Term Elliott Wave Roadmap
SPY continues to respect its long-term bullish channel with clear Elliott Wave structure.
Currently finishing Wave (3) with upside momentum into the 800+ zone.
Expecting a corrective Wave (4) dip toward 680–700.
The final Wave (5) extension projects into the 900+ zone, aligning with major Fibonacci levels.
This roadmap suggests:
✅ Structural bias remains bullish
⚠️ Volatility spikes likely during Wave (4) retracement
⏳ Timeline projects into 2026–2027 for cycle completion
Markets don’t move in straight lines—this is about the macro roadmap.
What’s your take—does SPY see 900+ before the next secular reset?
#SPY #SP500 #ElliottWave #TradingView #Markets
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 22 → Sept 26, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 22 → Sept 26, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Post-Fed positioning: Traders continue to recalibrate after last week’s cut + SEP; rates & USD tone drive risk.
💻 Mega-cap watch: NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:NVDA guidance/AI chatter keeps AMEX:XLK leadership in focus.
🛢️ Energy & FX: Oil swings and a firm dollar remain cross-asset headwinds.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
Tue 9/23
⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep) (Mfg & Services).
Wed 9/24
⏰ 10:00 AM — New Home Sales (Aug).
Thu 9/25
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly).
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — GDP (Q2, Third Estimate).
⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Aug).
⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Aug).
Fri 9/26
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Outlays (Aug) incl. PCE/Core PCE.
⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Sep).
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #GDP #PMI #joblessclaims #housing #consumer #Fed #Dollar #oil #megacaps
Solving Trading with Math: The Ultimate Pure Math StrategyThis video will be part 1 of using math to solve trading problems.
About this video
This video focuses on day trading using Algebra to determine your target price from opening breakout range.
In the next tutorial, I can show you how to apply this strategy to swing trading.
Overall Purpose
The overall purpose is to show you the actual, real life application of pure mathmatical principles in real life, especially as it pertains to trading.
If you were one of those people who said "I'll never use this math in real life applications", consider yourself corrected :P.
Thanks everyone, hopefully you enjoy and find this helpful!
Safe trades as always.
SPY still bullish but this is the last moveGiven the High in Feb25 at 619.22 ; the Low in Apr25 at 481.8, we have the following Fibon* extension targets
Target 0.382 = 681.51 Fair
Target 0.618 = 723.09 Expensive
Target 0.764 = 750.07 Overextended
In case SPY reaches 750.07 and declines afterwoods the correction can reach :
Target 0.618 = 570.55 Oversold
Target 0.382 = 633.38 Fair
In case SPY reaches 723.09 and declines afterwoods the correction can reach :
Target 0.618 = 562.63 Oversold
Target 0.382 = 619.20 Fair
SPY is likely to reach 681.51 in this Wave which we label Elliott Wave 5
Given the fair targets of the upcoming corrections at 633.38 or 619.20 it makes little sense to buy, unless one seeks to catch the latest upward move
It is not possible to predict how long this wave with last and how much time it will take to reverse
*calculated with the natural logarithms of datas
SPY: Bearish Continuation & Short Trade
SPY
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SPY
Entry Point - 663.63
Stop Loss - 664.95
Take Profit - 661.51
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
SPY SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
SPY SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 663.70
Target Level: 646.15
Stop Loss: 675.36
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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