10/7/24 - $celh - WTF is going on <$30- this position has been such a thorn in my side
- but i can't find a reason to dump my bags, instead i've been adding
- now sub 30x PE for nearly 30% growth CAGR w the expectations reset?
- are we about to find out something horrific here... or is NASDAQ:PEP gonna drop a stank bomb on the name during their CC... what gives??
- given how other discretionary is trading, this still *feels* to me like it's not stock-specific. look at NYSE:ELF as a good example, you'd almost think NASDAQ:CELH and NYSE:ELF are the same stonk. this market is really devoid of short-term logic. so better know what you own and have conviction to stomach the vol. almost feels like we're trading dog coins in this stonk market these dayz.
- gl to all. remember it's all fake. just a game. and we're price takers. have an edge, or fafo.
- i still like this one. could go lower. idk. but good value here.
V
CELH trade ideas
CELH Swing Trade PrepCELH is looking way oversold on Weekly. It's down from $99 to around $30. The slide is pretty dramatic and the red weeks keep filing in. That being said, looking at the MACD cross-over, we will undoubtedly see some upside in the coming weeks. I'm just waiting for the buy signal to be posted. I am expecting a bit more downside to the $24-$26 area. Looks juicy.
NOT Trading advice.
$CELH - Watch $28 areaNASDAQ:CELH Watch the $28 area for a reversal; it is where prior support meets the trendline, creating a potential bounce area.
Of course, there is a risk that breaking that support would be a major disaster for the stock. But that's a risk I am willing to take.
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting anyone follow my trades. You do you.
Value swing CELHI have been waiting for Celsius to hit the 30 dollar range for months and we are finally here. I am not a massive fan of the company but the intrinsic value is far above current price. The weekly stochastic RSI is very bottomed and I believe next earnings will show that this selloff to the magnitude is overblown. I am entering long call setups and planning accordingly.
My plan:
June 2025 35$ strikes, relatively safe, can capture nice changes in delta with mild theta
Jan 2025 40$ strikes, these will print if there is a reversal and are riskier but the loss is limited to the contract price
PT1=47$, this is where I would start to sell 40 Strikes
PT2= I will update this in a few weeks, this is where I would sell 35$ longer dated strikes
Celsius Holdings Range Bound - Low Growth StageNASDAQ:CELH has traded at a significant discount to previous highs.
We see some consolidation forming near $32 area and demand has picked up, however this will not likely be a growth story moving forward.
They will need to see significant margin expansion through earnings before they see any outsized growth.
HOLD RECOMMENDATION on Celsius.
Support broken, correction not over…This correction is in fact Wave 3, not the final Wave 5 as initially anticipated. We have lost another horizontal level of support at the Monthly. This suggests the downside pain is not over yet. I am anticipating a Wave 4 bounce, which will ultimately fail and we put in one more low to complete Wave 5.
This lines up with the fundamentals of the company, I don’t think we there’s a clear picture of where we are due to Pepsi ordering too much product and thus giving Celsius inflated revenues. We need this to normalise, for Pepsi to figure out the optimal numbers. There are other headwinds in this sector, which is why peers like Monster haven’t performed well of late.
I will now sit this out, wait for that final leg to come in and then think about going long. Patience is key on this.
Not financial advice, DYOR
$CELH - Inside buy areaNASDAQ:CELH Celsius Holdings came into my buy area. I bought a starter position. My next loading area will be $30 and below. There is a bullish divergence in both the RSI and MACD.
The ideal entry would be around the $28 area. Initially, I was waiting for the price to be closer to the $28 area. I started a position just in case.
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting anyone follow my trades. You do you.
$CELH Looking Ripe for Bullish ReversalCelsius ( NASDAQ:CELH ) looking ready to move up after hitting the 0.618 bullish fib reversal (Fib: AUG 9 2011) - Mar 11 2024 @ ATH). The green arrow marks the predicted path of the price Celsius can go based on historical price action.
Tools and Indicators
Bullish Fibonacci (Aug 9 2011 - Mar 11 2024)
Price Action (Previous Highs, Lows and Targets)
MACD and RSI
In one option call:
NASDAQ:CELH 18 OCT 24 50c @ 0.32 (currently down 34% at 0.22)
ENTRY: $33.82
TARGET: $37.34
STOP LOSS: $30.50
Bullish Targets
$33.46 | Bullish Target 1🎯 - Previous Day High (Sep 6 '24)
$34.88 | 2🎯 - 50% of Last Week's Move (Tues, Sep 3-6)
$36.17 | 3🎯 - Aug 8 @ 10:30 (1h timeframe)
$37.72 | 4🎯 - Previous Weekly High📈 (Wed, Sep 4)
$38.08 | 5🎯 - 0.618 fib (Aug 9 2011 - Mar 11 2024)
Bearish Targets
$31.55 | Bearish Target 1🎯 - Previous Daily Low📉
$29.91 | 2🎯 - Weekly Target 1🔽
$28.10 | 3🎯 - Weekly Target 2🔽
$26.75 | 4🎯 - Weekly Target 3🔽
9/4/24 - $celh - Kim K time... baack it up $339/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CELH
Kim K time... baack it up $33
- you guys know my thoughts here
- apparently mgmt ain't best communicators and were signaling some slow down in next Q (guess what... the stock already was suggesting this!)
- weird tape, so i think there's some degrossing here by funds that just can't afford to take multiple (price) risk for a high fly that is having a ST growth reset on EPS
- let's see... i'm still not totally clear what's happening
- but this is the conviction i speak of
- NASDAQ:NXT step aside... NASDAQ:CELH is now my biggest position > 10%.
stay sane (and hydrated). good lawd this mkt is whack
V
Buy the dip? Getting there…It looks like we are maintaining some level of support here at $37. Also some divergences on the RSI. Could be worth a trade here if we can hold the support.
I think we are at the final stage of the 5th wave down, it could well go deeper so you’d want to keep a stop loss/exit the trade if it drops below $35. That’ll indicate indicate one final puke towards $25-30, which we could get if the markets decline another 5-10%.
Do what’s best for you, not financial advice!
Celsius - Case for 50%+ UpsideLooking at NASDAQ:CELH , the CELH/SPY 3 day chart shows a major price dislocation imo.
MACD crossover looks imminent, RSI is at roughly 25.
See the case for potential 50% upside on CELH from these levels by mid/end of October or by end of year if it fizzles in the next 2 months.
Good luck and happy investing, this is not financial advice.
C
$CELH | Buy Potential D1 | Market Exec | Technical Confluences:
- Elliot wave may have completed Wave 4 and begin the Wave 5 move
- Price action is close to the 78% Fibo levels and a Demand zone (Yellow Zone) area.
- Stochastics are at Oversold levels on both Weekly & Daily timeframes (TF)
Fundamental Confluences:
- Earnings was positive with both domestic & international revenue increasing, EPS beat, EBITDA also up
- Slowly gaining market share in the Energy drinks segment
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I see these levels as good for me to being some allocation of my Portfolio into $CELH.
Blue Zones & Fibo Extension levels (in Blue) will be the starting point of some my TP levels.
Remember, DYOR.
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Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated!
If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies.
If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D
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Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
8/8/24 - $celh - buying aggressively ~$38 pre mkt, downside ltd8/8/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CELH
buying aggressively ~$38 pre mkt, downside limited
- NASDAQ:CELH is the corona of the energy drink market. get in... beach.
- BoA downgrades this thing at 52 week lows. now thinks it's worth $32 (from $60). thanks for the discount Jon.
- celh has now become my largest position even acknowledging we have a giant gap staring us in the face from early May (2023). I'm 6.5% size and should we close that gap, i'm taking the position to 10%.
- at pre mkt open ~37 stock trades 37x '24 PE and 27x '25. that's because you're growing 30% p.a.
- 3.5% fcf yield (expanding) and also likely growing in the high DD's call it 20+% minimally.
- no better consumer "staple" stock on the market that's going to offer you this kind of growth. NASDAQ:MNST is feeling the tidal wave of NASDAQ:CELH taking their share (50% of energy drink growth is $CELH... not 50% of category, but 50% of incremental growth. that's yuge.)
lego.
lmk if u'd like to add to the thesis in the comment's/ DMs.
V
Celsius - sellers cranking up the temperature Bears remain in control of Celsius. I did warn this could result in a catastrophic sell off if the bounce failed, which it did. The writing was on the wall for the following reasons:
- textbook double top pattern marking the peak of the super cycle.
- lost the 50 and 100 SMA on the weekly
- failed to recapture the 0.2336 Fib during its retrace.
- lost the $50 level, which is an important psychological level for the bulls.
- potentially in wave 3 of 5 of the corrective pattern.
Possible level of support is the 200SMA, which lines up with the gap fill area marked on the chart. Not financial advice, just telling you what I see on the charts and it doesn’t look pretty.
6/12/24 - $celh - love 2 own. but need greedier entry mid 50s6/12/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:CELH - this one seems to be topical bc of the potential energy drink ban in UK that could be determined by political wins in a month. while i don't think the stock should/will only move on this news, it's notable and also concerning that this is being sold on a day like today where risk is up. my sense is there's a rotation to cheaper more beaten up names in the staples universe. look at NASDAQ:LULU for instance. found a floor, "passed" earnings test. still not cheap (arguably better risk/reward here than CELH, but for a diff day to explain), but also being dumped. that's the blue chip clothing co.
so what do you pay for CELH growing 30% PA with no obvious end in sight, a nice tasting product i must say (even as a non-energy drink drinker lol i like black coffee, i had to try it to see the hype!)...
1. trades like a tech co with worse gross margins (50-60%) vs. tech at 70-80% (software that is). that's fine - maybe these come up over time, but it's not tech
2. not such a big deal to point out the mr. obvious comment above except for that it trades w/ software-like ev/ sales multiples at 8x. again. not cheap.
3. what about cash? well dilution is less an issue here unlike software (that's great!) and if we can give credit for even 300-350 mm in FCF (perhaps it's higher, but let's be conservative) that's 2.5+% yield which while sub-5% "risk free" rate... is again growing 30% pa and probably cheap.
conclusion: this stock is a buy. if you were to theoretically buy it today, you probably make money into YE and in '25. but the chart remains sketch, you have this regulatory overhang, risk STILL remains stretched (GENERALLY! even if we got a favorable CPI print). so even tho i'm still 60% positions 40% cash... i'm treading lightly across the board. and so i'll either buy this in the mid 50s (ideally low 50s) or if it just course corrects from here and goes higher... i'll miss it and find another spot to engage, even if it's at a higher level.
rule #1 is don't lose money. so i don't see the greatest setup here and won't buy the dip.
but i am long-biased. gl to the holders.
V
Desirable Zone for CelsiusI know Celsius has come under scrutiny recently due to expected lower sales and economic state of the U.S. This has left a lot of people to think that Celsius has become less then desirable as shown by the heavy price drop. One thing we can see is that there were two zones of previous consolidation that lie around where price is now. So not only is Celsius as a huge discount for something that has had great success the past two years, but also the fact that the area it is entering now could see fresh buyers (like me) trying to enter around these two orderblocks. Let me know what you guys think!
$CELH great R/RDespite the indicators showing a downtrend in the stock, I believe that the risk/reward ratio for NASDAQ:CELH is quite favourable.
Why? The risk is mostly mitigated; even if the company reports less-than-stellar results, this is already factored into the price.
However, if it does report even slightly better than anticipated results, we might witness a rally.
Take note of the bullish divergence between the price and the MACD-Histogram.
What are your thoughts? Do you anticipate further decline or a potential bounce from this point?"