Falling Knife Trade - Bottom PickingA 44% drop since November 2024 in this Financial Data powerhouse, is this a knife worth catching or does this have lower to go?
Purely from a technical perspective, this chart is extremely weak. We are clutching onto a long term trendline, with the 0.786 Fib and 200M EMA just below. If we get a meaningful bounce here, there could be a swing trade opportunity. I'd rather wait for some positive momentum to kick in before trying to pick a bottom here.
Fundamentally the company is barely growing, at a low single digit growth. Whilst the company has a sticky product through their subscription model, they have invested in AI enhancements to their data capability tools. The market doesn't believe in the story, but if you do then this could be a good time to consider a contrarian trade.
Not financial advice, I hold no position (yet).
FA1 trade ideas
FactSet Research Systems | FDS | Long at $284.10FactSet Research Systems NYSE:FDS is a leading provider of financial data, analytics, and software solutions primarily serving the investment and finance industry. As of 2025, it supports over 218,000 users across more than 8,200 client institutions worldwide, including buy-side and sell-side firms, investment managers, hedge funds, banks, wealth managers, asset owners, private equity firms, and corporate users. Its clients span industries such as financial services (19% of users), higher education (11%), and investment management (7%), with a strong focus on large organizations (38% of clients have revenue >$1B).
Technical Analysis:
The price is currently touching the top of my "crash" historical simple moving average bands (green lines). This area is often reserved for share accumulation and can signal a bottom. The price, however, may extend to the bottom of "crash" bands which is currently near $265.00. These bands don't always signal a bottom - there is a still a "major crash" zone - but the company's niche clientele and earnings/revenue growth into 2029 may signal a buy opportunity.
Earnings and Revenue Growth
EPS growth between 2025 ($16.98) and 2029 ($22.30): 31.3%
Revenue growth between 2025 ($2.32 billion) and 2029 ($2.86 billion): 23.3%
www.tradingview.com
Health
Debt-to-Equity: 0.63x (good)
Altman's Z-Score/Bankruptcy Risk: 6.6 (great, very low risk)
Insiders
Warnings: selling outweighs buying, but an insider two days ago purchased $100k near $296.
openinsider.com
Action
Due to the expected earnings and revenue growth into 2029, great overall financial health, niche market served, and technical analysis signals, NYSE:FDS is in a personal "buy zone" at $284.10. Additional opportunities for entry may exist near $265 and a bit lower in the near-term. However, if estimates are correct and continued growth is in the future of NYSE:FDS , the long-term outlook may be quite positive for investors. Time will tell.
Targets in 2028
$320 (+12.6%)
$350 (+23.2%)
Going nowhere can be profitable - Long at 454.61FDS has disappointed the buy and hold crowd over the past year. In the last 356 days (it was a leap year), it has gone up a total of around .22% - basically nothing. It has given me a bunch of profitable trades, though, and it's giving me another one today.
While it has done basically nothing overall, all those zig-zags along the way are where my excess return lives. Stock returns like this one over the course of the past year can be both gut-wrenching and frustrating. It was charts like this one (and owning the stocks behind them) that was a big part of what motivated me to develop the trading system I now rely on almost exclusively (except for some fun day trades).
In over 800 actual and backtested trades, it has generated a per day held return 4x that of SPY's long term average daily return. In the large/mega cap universe, that has made it historically a top 10% stock for me. The fact that there is support nearby is nice. Or, you could say it's forming a decapitated head and shoulders too - an almost perfect one if you don't care about the head.
That could be a cause of concern, I suppose. In the end, though, through all the ups and downs of the markets and the stock, all the trends and chart patterns, I go back to the data.
Does past performance guarantee future results? Well no...but over 1.2 million trades worth of data sure does help me sleep at night while the trade is on, that's for sure. To be in the top 10% of that much data says something about
FDS
and its reliability of returns. I trust that data and it has certainly earned my trust since I started trading based on it.
As I developed this system and saw what happens when you use large amounts of data to drive trading decisions, I understand much better the tech world's fetish with big data now. It works. It makes me wonder if there's big data out there on head and shoulders patterns (head included) and things like trend lines and support and how predictive those signals really are. Alas, that's a job for someone else. I've done (and continue to do) the data crunching for my system, because I believe in the predictive power of that data - and that's the real reason I went long FDS at the end of the day today.
Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
6/20/24 - $fds - Probably a beat but fear guide6/20/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:FDS
Probably a beat but fear guide
There's no denying the quality of the Factset product. The problem is, it faces a lot of AI-related competitors like other B2B and this is not eating the share price yet like other names. It's not to say they don't have a better niche, lock in etc. etc. but it's defn the "same" risk and again the mkt doesn't seem to be pricing this in.
With that out of the way 25x PE for something growing 15% a year is okay. 3.5% fcf yield growing 10% a year is probably a buy. no stock comp dilution issue. nearly 9x ev to sales is rich.
the little higher low from the last few wks trading (look at the daily) looks like a potential break out.
the way i'm playing this is i'm only buying a weak guide and a stock down 10-15%. i don't think that's probable (defn anything possible) but a risk free way for me to trade this. otherwise i let it go and hand it to you guys - the bigger bulls.
V
FDS FactSet Research Systems Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold FDS here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of FDS FactSet Research Systems prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 420usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $9.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
FDS FactSet Research Systems Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of FDS FactSet Research Systems prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 420usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-7-21,
for a premium of approximately $13.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
FDS- BULLISH SCENARIOFDS is expected to release its earnings report today before the opening of the market. The majority of the analyst are expecting strong quarterly results and better-than-expected earnings per share
From a technical perspective, we have a falling wedge collaborated with RSI in a bullish divergence
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$FDS - Earnings tomorrrooooowwwwEPS Consensus - $2.14
Revs - $339.71M
Definitely wana jump into some puts, but I was wrong enough with $TSLA lol. 38M float w/ 7% short interest makes it looks like a short squeeze, but the 92% institutional ownership just reminds me of $DQ, $FSLR, $CMD, $NKTR, etc., UuuugUUuGuee earnings drops. I was wrong enough on my $TSLA chart, but I'll let this one play itself out before I get too ahead of myself lol.
Short FactSetShort @ $213.27
Market Cap - $8.27B
Beta - 0.97
P/B - 13.52
- FactSet has a Price to Book value of 13.52 which is could show that the equity is slightly overvalued since the industry's P/B is 6.4.
- They have a declining client retention ratio which obviously is a massive concern for the company. Failing to keep their old clients will impact the company's growth negatively in the long term.
- They operate in a very competitive market, against the likes of Bloomberg L.P, Reuters and the Dow Jones & Company Inc. these companies have more resources than FactSet. Though FDS has a technological advantage these companies have more money, marketing and technical resources.
- FactSet shares underperformed the industry's growth of 26.6% by 1.1%.
NeroTree Capital rates FactSet Research Systems Inc. a SELL with a price target of $175.