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SMCI trade ideas

$SMCI Weekend analysis - 21st September, 2025NASDAQ:SMCI is starting to shape up an inverse head & shoulders. The neckline lines up almost perfectly with the 50D SMA around 47.7 - a pretty important level to watch. If we get a clean daily close above that, it could unlock the next leg higher toward 56.7. That target makes sense not only from the measured move on the pattern, but also because there’s a big price/volume gap sitting in that zone that often acts like a vacuum. On the flip side, if price closes 41.5, the setup is invalidated and I’d step aside. For now, it’s all about whether SMCI can flip 47.7 into support with volume behind it.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by zaidriaz992
H4 trendline break + 200EMA reclaimThe heavily shorted stock - SMCI They just can't take it down into that weekly gap below $39.50 I had massive amounts of limit buys down in that area to start an early position but the bulls held their ground and didn't allow it to trade into that area. You can see the $40 support is strong. I don't want to go off on a Whim about the fundamentals because that's not how I trade. (Fundamentally I wanted it below $40 because I know it's an excellent long term play to own this stock under these discounted prices. Now that we held that ground it's time for SMCI to break into the $50+ range. Praying FOMC doesn't kill this momentum, if it does then I will keep my limit buys open below $40 and average down there in that weekly gap. I can see SMCI running to $70-$80 by the end of year if we can break this previous high on the last rally. I entered this trade a few days ago on the breakout with leap options and shares to give me some wiggle room on this play. I set up a long and short tool on the chart if you want to attempt this as a scalp with stop losses, just understand with stop losses under $40 you could become stop raid liquidity. Stop losses should be daily and weekly closes under $35, at that point I'm still going to be holding. Thats just my conviction on this for long term.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by antbraccio1
SMCI Rebounding on its 1W MA50 and targeting the ATH.Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) hit last week its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and this week posts a strong 1W candle. This rebound comes on the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the 1-year Ascending Triangle. It may not be exactly like the Channel Up of 2022 but it looks like a similar Accumulation pattern that preceded the massive 2023 rally. The Triangle typically breaks to the upside and technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This time that would be even higher than the 2023 rise of +948.85%. In any case that would be our over-extended Target ($180.00), with a more 'reasonable' one being the All Time High (ATH) of $123.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by TradingShot
2
SMCI analysisEvery time price makes a fake breakdown below the 50 EMA, it quickly recovers and pushes higher. Historically, these moves have led price to test the purple resistance zone highlighted on the chart. Given the repeated pattern, I think the same dynamic could play out again, with price eventually making its way back to that resistance area. 🎯 Conclusion: Based on prior reactions to the 50 EMA, I expect SMCI to work its way toward the purple resistance zone. This is my professional view from the chart structure, though markets remain uncertain and no outcome is guaranteed. 👉 Stay tuned for more structured market insights — follow along for consistent expert-level analysis.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by abo0o
SMCI - LongSMCI is looking good on the daily. This next week will be a telling sign of where it wants to go. Reasoning for going long here: EMA’s curling up on larger time frame, B-Xtrender is showing momentum and curling up. This one is lagging behind the market, so I feel like this one could be a waiting game or the time has come. Concerns: Weekly Chart looks like its not ready, but the histogram looks like bears are fading. Target: $66.40 (targeting the high that didn’t get tested), this will push us back into the low that happened on 19 April. Bullish indicator would be an impulse leg through there. If it wicks the high, I'm taking profit and looking for an entry on liquidity (FVG’s, etc.).
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Warner_Bear
Levels to trade $SMCIMargin Pressures and Market Dynamics • Pricing wars driven by Dell and HPE compress gross margins. • Supply-chain cost volatility from component shortages impacted FY2024 revenue timing. • Surge in low-margin GPU pass-through sales dilutes overall profitability. Differentiation Strategies • Building Blocks Architecture enables custom configurations and faster validation cycles, meeting full customer specs versus off-the-shelf alternatives. • Liquid-cooled server designs (e.g., DLC-2 series) deliver up to 40% power savings in AI workloads. • Close integration with NVIDIA’s GB200/300 and Blackwell GPU platforms secures first-mover advantage on next-gen AI contracts.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by KhanhC.Hoang
Super Micro Computer Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 082225Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 41.5/61.80% Chart time frame:B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress:C A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If you want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day
NASDAQ:SMCI
by fibonacci6180
SMCI $46.50 Calls Poised for Explosive Move – Don’t Miss Out! 🚀 SMCI Weekly Options Analysis (2025-08-17) – Don’t Miss Out! ### 🔎 Model Insights Recap **Grok/xAI Report** * 📊 Daily RSI: 35.2 → short-term bearish pressure * 📊 Weekly RSI: 55 → moderate bullish trend * 📈 Call/Put Ratio: Strong bullish flow * 🔊 Volume: Weak institutional support * ✅ Decision: Moderate bullish → **\$47.00 Call** **DeepSeek Report** * 📈 Call/Put Ratio: 2.47 → bullish * ⚠️ Conflicting daily/weekly signals * 🛑 Decision: **No trade** **Gemini/Google Report** * 📊 Daily RSI bearish, Weekly RSI bullish * ✅ Decision: Moderate bullish → **\$46.50 Call** **Llama/Meta Report** * 📊 Mixed sentiment, weak volume * ✅ Decision: Moderate bullish → **\$46.50 Call** **Claude/Anthropic Report** * ⚠️ Daily momentum weak, weekly bullish potential * 🛑 Decision: **No trade** --- ### 📌 Key Agreements & Disagreements * **Agreements:** Call/put ratio bullish, daily RSI weak, volume declining → caution * **Disagreements:** * Bullish call recommendation: Grok/xAI, Gemini/Google, Llama/Meta * No trade: DeepSeek, Claude/Anthropic due to conflicting signals --- ### 📊 Recommended Trade * **Direction:** CALL (Long) * **Strike:** \$46.50 * **Expiry:** 2025-08-22 * **Entry Price:** \$0.88 (bid/ask midpoint) * **Stop Loss:** \$0.44 (50% of premium) * **Profit Target:** \$1.32 (50–100% gain) * **Entry Timing:** Market Open * **Confidence:** 65% --- ### ⚠️ Key Risks * Weak volume → insufficient institutional backing * Daily RSI weak → short-term reversals possible * Maintain exit strategy if price breaks support or fails to reach targets --- 📊 **TRADE DETAILS JSON** ```json { "instrument": "SMCI", "direction": "call", "strike": 46.50, "expiry": "2025-08-22", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 1.32, "stop_loss": 0.44, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.88, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-08-17 12:07:47 EDT" } ```
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by quantsignals
2
Current situationThings here are about overcoming the new 4-hour resistance from the accumulated volume of $60.40. I think that will happen only after good results tomorrow. Logical, because it clearly did not happen today. And the decline logically came after the SP500 correction, which I wrote about here at the beginning of last week, about which some friends here asked me why I was sure it would happen. It was clear that it would happen and it did, but it started strangely a little before the results of Apple and Amazon, but I will not comment on that here. Ultimately, the price movement is perfect, like in a textbook. We have a breakthrough of the daily resistance of $52.41, which is now a solid support, and then a retest that strengthened this support. The RSI has decreased. In case of bad results, God forbid not tragic ones, we will return there. In case of good results, however, we will reach $72. I have open positions and I think I'll take a risk and, although I don't have any after-market trading for this stock, I'll play for $72+. This is the reality. I don't think I'll give more detailed information on the 5, 15 and 30m levels right now because tomorrow is a special day. I only hope that we don't have a big movement and only a slight drop in the SP500, which I think will be $6358. Good luck!
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by kometata
5
SMCI Earnings Setup: Big Miss Incoming? Put Flow Exploding ### 🧨 SMCI Earnings Setup: Big Miss Incoming? Put Flow Exploding 🚨 📆 **Earnings Date:** Aug 5, 2025 (After Market Close) 💣 **Sentiment:** **Moderate Bearish** — 72% conviction 💬 **Why?**: Weak margins, cash burn, heavy put activity, and bearish technicals. --- ### 🔍 Quick Breakdown: 📉 **Fundamentals:** * Profit margin only 5.34% * Free cash flow: **–\$272M** * Historical EPS beats? Just 50% * Analyst consensus is turning **bearish** 🧾 **Options Flow:** * Heavy \$58 & \$56 **Put Accumulation** * Cautious positioning into earnings * Skewed toward **defensive hedging** 📉 **Technicals:** * Weak RSI (\~48), poor volume * Price drifting with no conviction * 🔑 Key Support: \$53.66 * 🔼 Resistance: \$60.00 --- ### 💼 Trade Setup: SMCI PUT ⚠️ * 📍 **Strike:** \$56.00 * 📆 **Expiry:** Aug 8, 2025 * 💵 **Entry Price:** \$2.23 * 🎯 **Profit Target:** \$6.69 * 🛑 **Stop Loss:** \$1.11 * 🧠 **Size:** 2% Portfolio **Expected Move:** 10–15% ⚠️ (based on IV and past reactions) **Exit Plan:** Take profits within 2 hours post-earnings to avoid IV crush! --- ### 📈 TradingView Tags: ``` #SMCI #PutOptions #EarningsPlay #BearishSetup #OptionsFlow #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrade #HighConviction #NASDAQ #AIStocks #MarketVolatility #DarkPoolData ``` --- ### 💬 Hook for Comments: > SMCI bulls better hope for a miracle… or this earnings could trigger a 15% flush. Are you hedged? 😬
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by quantsignals
11
SMCI – Sell the Spike, Buy the Dip Again?With SMCI approaching a key resistance zone around $64, I'm preparing for a potential pullback. If the price fails to break through that level convincingly, we could see a healthy dip — which I’ll use to re-enter. This is a classic “sell high to buy lower” setup — let the market breathe, then strike. 🟢 Entry Points (Buy the Dip): $49 $45 $40 🔴 Profit Targets: ✅ $55 – quick bounce zone ✅ $60 – key resistance ✅ $65+ – if momentum continues 📌 Let the chart come to you — don’t chase. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and evaluate your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by Robert_V12