USOIL H4 | Potential bearish dropBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has reacted off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 63.41, which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 64.78, which is a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 61.60, which is a swing low support that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
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CLOIL trade ideas
Oil Prices Under OPEC+ Pressure!Oil prices fell for a second consecutive session, with Brent crude down 0.6% to $67.17 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate down by the same percentage to $63.53. Investors are now looking ahead to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting early next week, amid rising expectations that producers may consider a fresh output hike for October.
This comes after the alliance had already raised its targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day between April and September, along with an additional 300,000 barrels for the UAE. At the same time, market focus is shifting to U.S. crude inventory data, particularly after the American Petroleum Institute reported an unexpected build of 622,000 barrels for the week ending August 29, compared with analyst forecasts of a nearly 2 million barrel drawdown.
From the technical side:
Crude oil is still trading in a general uptrend on the 4-hour chart, forming higher highs and higher lows. However, it is approaching a key level in the short- to medium-term at 62.95, which represents the last higher low recorded by the price. A break below this level and the formation of a lower low on the 4-hour chart would indicate a shift from the current uptrend to a renewed downtrend. On the other side, if price holds the 62.95 level and fails to form a lower low, oil could potentially target the 65.31 level.
USOIL Will Go Lower! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 64.627.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 63.428.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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04-09-2025 USOILAs shown in the figure: 4H Bullish Cypher
The market is not always chaotic and disorderly, and there is a precise geometric beauty hidden in price fluctuations. The harmonic form long strategy is a powerful tool for accurately identifying potential market reversal points based on the Fibonacci ratio. When the form forms perfectly at the key support level, it often indicates the depletion of bearish momentum and the initiation of bullish trends.
oil sell Current Assumed Position: The market appears to be completing a 4th wave correction (as a Zig-Zag pattern) within a larger impulsive trend.
Wave A (Down): Complete.
Wave B (Up): Complete. This was the counter-trend bounce.
Wave C (Down): Currently in progress. This is the final leg of the corrective pattern.
Key Guidance on the Length of Wave C:
Elliott Wave theory provides two primary guidelines for estimating the length of a C wave within a Zig-Zag:
Most Common Relationship: Wave C is often equal in length to Wave A.
This is the standard first target. Measure the price length (not time) of Wave A and project that same distance downward from the peak of Wave B.
Common Alternative: Wave C frequently extends to a length of 1.618 times the length of Wave A.
This is a very typical target if the underlying trend is strong and the C wave becomes powerful. This would be your second, deeper target.
What this means for your analysis:
Calculate the price difference (High - Low) of Wave A.
Subtract that value from the high of Wave B to find your primary target for the end of Wave C.
For a more bearish scenario, take the length of Wave A x 1.618 and subtract that from Wave B's high to find a secondary target.
Important Consideration:
Wave C must subdivide into a full 5-wave impulse itself. It cannot be a simple three-wave move. Monitor the internal structure of this decline to confirm it is developing as a 5-wave pattern, which will add confidence to this projection.
In summary: The most probable minimum length for Wave C is a decline equal to Wave A. Be prepared for a move extending to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave A.
USOIL: Bears Are Winning! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 61.933 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
THE BEAST- Well hello !So just a quick update on the last one.
USOIL(WTI) has managed to push further into the sixties.
The daily RSI is showing signs of a shift upwards.
The extended targets from the previous one. Profit taking is essentially as price is in a range of created a while back. (Yellow box)
There could be some selling from the middle or to of the box.
Long term, the plan has not changed. I’m still long. Though there could be some retesting of lower levels, this could be a sustained move up.
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt 🧂. 👌🏼
OIL - at a very interesting point for longsWatch OIL carefully:
if the day closes above 65.38 (daily bullish engulfing) therefore above the previous weeks close, we could be going for another weekly impulse that would take us to the $86.40 level (conservative target: $78.40). According to your edge and how you are able to structure your operations, you have great risk to reward potential. For instance, even if you use the engulfing candle as your buy stop entry and the low of the candle as your stop loss i.e. you are going for the full daily swing, you are talking about a 1:6.5 R:R, which is already amazing in itself.
Levels on the chart, trade with care.
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SpotCrude Short Setup - 4h💎MJTrading
📸 Viewing Tip:
🛠️ Some layout elements may shift depending on your screen size.
🔗 View the fixed high-resolution chart here:
🛢️ PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE Short Setup – Third Tap of Falling Wedge Resistance
Pattern: Falling wedge
Context: Price is testing wedge resistance for the third time, with rejection signs
Bias: Bearish
🟢 Entry Point: 64.5
This aligns with upper boundary of the Falling Wedge (After Rejection).
❌ Stop Loss (SL): 65.5
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Levels
✅ TP1 (RR1) → 63.5
📈 TP2 → 62.5
💰 TP3 → 61.5
🧠 Trade Logic
Price is testing wedge resistance for the third time, with rejection signs
⚠️ Risk Management
Risk:Reward ratio ranges from 1:1 to 1:3, depending on TP level.
Psychology Always Matters:
Oil: Navigating the Final Legs of a CorrectionIt looks like oil is still in the upward correction of wave ii, which should continue into next week.
This bounce can be traded using indicators and key levels for intraday setups. In this scenario, wave interpretation is of little help and can actually do more harm than good.
The diagonal that appears to be wave i is now complete, and the larger downtrend is expected to resume within the next few days.
WTI Oil Shorting Opportunity | Technical + Macro Confirm📌 WTI CRUDE OIL | Money-Making Thief Plan 🛢️ (Swing/Day Trade)
🗡️ Thief Strategy Plan (Bearish Bias)
Plan: Bearish setup confirmed — sellers in control after MA rejection of bulls 📉
Entry (Layered Style):
63.000 🔪
62.500 🔪
62.000 🔪
61.500 🔪
(You may increase or adjust layers based on your own plan)
Stop Loss (Thief SL): @64.000 ❌
⚠️ Adjust SL according to your risk & strategy
Target (Thief TP): Key resistance zone + overbought trap @4.6700 🎯
Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s) — I don’t recommend locking only my TP. Take your profits wisely & manage risk responsibly. 💰
❓ Why This Plan?
Moving average rejection confirms sellers’ dominance ⚔️
Technical indicators showing strong sell bias 📉
Layered entry strategy helps in catching moves efficiently 🎯
Oversupply risk + weak demand = bearish fuel 🔥
Retail & institutions both leaning short-side heavy 🐻
🔍 Market Analysis (Technical + Fundamental + Macro + Sentiment)
📊 Real-Time Price Action - Sep 05
Daily Change: -1.03%
Monthly Change: -2.84%
Yearly Change: -8.44%
😊 Retail & Institutional Sentiment
Retail Traders: 35% 🐂 | 55% 🐻 | 10% 😐
Institutional Traders: 30% 🐂 | 60% 🐻 | 10% 😐
🌡️ Fear & Greed Index
Current: 25/100 — Fear 😟
Mood: Cautious, driven by oversupply fears + weak demand
⚒️ Fundamental Score: 40/100 (Bearish)
U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly +2.42M vs. -2.19M expected 📈
OPEC+ considering production increase 🌍
Weak China demand signals 📉
🌐 Macro Score: 35/100 (Bearish)
Fed rate cut expectations (25bp likely in September) 💸
Global slowdown fears 🌎 (Europe + Asia weak data)
Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine) limited impact 🚨
🏁 Overall Market Outlook: Bearish (Short Bias) 🐻
Declining prices + rising inventories + OPEC+ supply hike risk
Technicals = Strong Sell (daily/weekly)
Sentiment favors sellers across the board
🔮 Key Takeaway
WTI/USOIL remains heavy under supply pressure + demand weakness.
Market sentiment is fearful, with both retail & institutions leaning short.
⚡ Keep eyes on U.S. jobs data + OPEC+ decisions for any trend shifts.
📌RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH
BRENT CRUDE ( TVC:UKOIL ): $66.42 (-1.8% daily)
NATURAL GAS ( FX:NGAS ): $2.84 (-0.7% daily)
ENERGY ETFS: XLE, USO, UCO
OANDA:CADJPY : Oil-correlated currency pair
ENERGY STOCKS: NYSE:XOM , NYSE:CVX , NYSE:COP , NYSE:SLB
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#USOIL #WTI #CrudeOil #ThiefTrader #EnergyMarkets #Commodities #OPEC #SwingTrade #DayTrade #OilAnalysis
USOIL: Target Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 63.969 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
WTI Crude resistance at 6600The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the resistance, suggesting a further selling pressure within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 6600, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 6600 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 6200, followed by 6100 and 6000 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6600 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6710, then 6800.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the pair breaks and holds above 6600. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
WTI crude oil Wave Analysis – 2 September 2025- WTI crude oil broke the resistance level 64.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 66.00
WTI crude oil recently broke the resistance level 64.00 intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily Falling Wedge from June.
The breakout of the resistance level 64.00 coincided with the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse i from July.
WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 66.00, which is the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse i from July.