WTI Crude Oil
As shown in my previous analysis (pinned below this post), we shorted oil from the range high.
Now price has reached the range low, where two key buy levels are marked on the chart ✅.
🔹 If these levels break, the opposite scenario still stands.
🔹 We’re not in OPEC, we don’t make political or war decisions, and we don’t give orders to the market.
🔹 We are traders, simply trying to profit from opportunities.
⚡️ Remember: being biased toward your analysis = blowing up your account and losing confidence.
🎯 Always follow the market, never fight it.
Trade ideas
USOIL BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 57.23
Target Level: 59.72
Stop Loss: 55.57
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
WTI to $55 amid excess supply concerns?There was some relief at the start of the week for oil prices as traders reacted to the weekend news of de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China and figured that a potential extension of the tariff truce would be net positive for the demand outlook. However, the recovery stalled as WTI prices couldn’t break above $60 per barrel and have since turned flat on the week. The bearish trend thus remains intact for oil. Here, investors are concerned about the excess supply of the stuff hitting the markets, as the OPEC+ is gradually releasing some withheld oil supplies to win back market share. The group’s plan is to increase production by a total of 1.65 million barrels per day by the end of 2025. It has already increased output by 137K bpd from October. Against a backdrop of increasing supplies, it looks like WTI is heading towards the April lows of around $55.00 again.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
WTI Crude Oil range trading support at 5747The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the longer term support, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 6030, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 6030 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 5747, followed by 5677 and 5606 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6030 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6073, then 6170.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the WTI Crude price breaks and holds above 6030. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Crude oil -DAILY- 20/10/2025Oil prices fell after a third straight weekly decline as traders reacted to easing U.S.–China trade tensions pushing WTI toward $56 a barrel amid optimism over upcoming trade talks. China’s economy slowed for a second consecutive quarter, though Beijing maintained its 5% growth target. Oil futures are heading for a third monthly loss, pressured by an expected supply surplus through 2026, according to the IEA. Trump said he plans a second meeting with Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, though prior talks have achieved little. Citigroup warned that any de-escalation could push oil toward $50 a barrel. Market indicators suggest weakness, with near-term spreads narrowing and longer-term contracts shifting into bearish contango.
On the technical side, crude oil price has extended its aggressive bearish trend last week with no major signs of reversing. Apart from the extreme oversold Stochastic oscillator there are no other signs of a bullish correction. The faster 50-day simple moving average is trading below the slower 100-day simple moving average validating the overall bearish trend in the market while the Bollinger Bands are quite expanded showing that there is increased volatility in the market for crude oil hinting that there is potential for sharp moves in the upcoming sessions. Eventhough, the area of $62 is the major technical resistance level, it seems that it might need some time to retest this level. The lower band of the Bollinger Bands seems to be the first level of technical support for the price while the area of $56 might pose some support since its the multiyear low which was last tested in early May 2025.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
Why Oil’s Drop Fuels a Global Risk-Off SentimentWTI Crude Oil Monthly Technical Outlook: Below $60 and the Broader Market Implications
As the fourth quarter of 2025 unfolds, the WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) chart offers a critical perspective on the state of global supply-demand balance and its broader impact on market sentiment. Trading near $58.5 per barrel, oil prices have fallen below a key psychological threshold, and while the move may seem technical at first, its implications reach far beyond the energy market.
The combination of weakening momentum indicators, rising supply projections, and softening global demand paints a nuanced but important story: oil’s slide below $60 is no longer just a chart event, it’s a macro signal about global growth, supply dynamics, and investor positioning.
Technical Overview: Momentum Loss Deepens
The monthly chart for WTI shows a clear picture of fatigue after multiple failed rebound attempts over the past 18 months. Since peaking near $130 in early 2022, prices have formed a persistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, reflecting an extended process of distribution.
In recent months, WTI has failed to sustain moves above $70, with sellers consistently stepping in on rallies. The October bar extended losses toward the $58 level, marking the weakest monthly close since mid-2023.
Structurally, this decline puts WTI in a critical support zone between $55 and $57, which coincides with the base that previously stabilized prices in late 2023. Should this zone fail, the next major support rests around $50 per barrel, aligning with a key Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 rally.
On the upside, the resistance band remains in the $65–$68 range, a descending trendline that has capped every rebound since early 2024. A decisive monthly close above that zone would be the first confirmation of renewed strength, but momentum indicators are still leaning toward continued weakness or sideways consolidation.
MACD and Stochastic RSI: Weakening Momentum Signals
The MACD (12,26,9) indicator remains subdued below the zero line, underscoring a prolonged loss of upside momentum. The histogram has recently turned red again, indicating that the MACD line may cross below the signal line, a potential confirmation that sellers still control the trend.
Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI, which measures RSI velocity, has rolled over from midrange levels and is pointing lower again. Its failure to sustain a rebound above 50 shows that bullish energy has faded.
If this oscillator drops below 30, it would confirm a continuation of weak-to-neutral price action through the rest of Q4. Historically, such conditions precede prolonged consolidation phases, where volatility contracts before a new trend forms.
Together, these indicators portray a market not in full capitulation, but clearly lacking conviction for an upside breakout.
Fundamental Picture: Oversupply Meets Slowing Demand
While technical signals reveal a loss of momentum, the fundamental backdrop provides stronger clues about why oil has struggled to maintain value above $60. Recent data from major energy agencies, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and multiple Reuters reports, converge on one central theme:
the global oil market is entering a surplus phase, with supply growth outpacing demand.
Large Oversupply Projections
Read full analysis on my website
darrismanresearch com
USOIL H4 | Bearish Drop OffUSOIL is reacting off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 61.50, which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 62.71, which is a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 59.16, which lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
US OIL SUPPORT, RESISTANCE & TRENDLINE ANALYSISThe market is sideways kindly save your capital yall.
Go "long" if it breaks the trendline and 57.45 and aim for 57.80 and 58.14 and if it breaks 58.37 then we might see a good move upside.
Go "Short" if it breaks below 57.12 and breaking the trendline as well will lead to 56.77 and 56.43.
Good Night!!
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 60.56
1st Support: 57.68
1st Resistance: 62.10
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
WTI Crude Oil – Elliott Wave Analysis🛢️ WTI Crude Oil – Elliott Wave Analysis
Wave Structure · Smart Money · Fib Confluence · Price Action
🔎 Market Context & Overview
WTI Crude Oil remains one of the most critical and closely watched commodities in the global market. After decades of dramatic price swings driven by geopolitical events, supply shocks, and evolving demand patterns, the market now appears poised at a pivotal juncture. Combining Elliott Wave theory , Smart Money Concepts , Fibonacci retracements & extensions , and price action analysis with fundamental macro insights reveals a compelling narrative: Crude is concluding a prolonged corrective phase and preparing for a significant breakout. This analysis breaks down each wave, highlighting key technical and fundamental factors shaping the future trajectory of oil prices.
🔹 Wave 1 – Early Impulse (1970s–1985)
📉 Technicals: Formed the foundational uptrend post-oil embargo.
🧠 SMC: Accumulation following global inflation shock.
📊 Fib: Initial rally; shallow extension, not impulsive in character.
🌍 Macro: Oil embargo, inflation, and a restructuring of global energy markets gave birth to this initial move.
🔹 Wave 2 – Complex Correction (1985–1999)
🔁 Technicals: Multi-decade W-X-Y corrective pattern, fully retracing Wave 1.
🧠 SMC: Smart Money accumulation masked by long-term bearish structure.
📊 Fib : Deep correction toward 78.6%, classic for Wave 2.
🌐 Macro: OPEC instability, Gulf War, rising non-OPEC supply, and suppressed demand through globalization.
🔹 Wave 3 – Supercycle Rally (1999–2008)
🚀 Technicals: Powerful impulsive rally, achieving 1.618 Fib extension of Wave 1.
🧠 SMC: Clear Break of Structure (BoS) in early 2000s; institutions led the markup.
📊 Fib: Ideal third-wave behavior — extended and directional.
📈 Macro: China-led supercycle, supply bottlenecks, geopolitical conflict, and a commodities renaissance pushed oil to $147.27.
🔹 Wave 4 – Still In Progress (2008–2026 est.)
🔄 Technicals: Long, complex W-X-Y-X-Z or potential triangle; entering final E-leg now.
🧠 SMC: Liquidity grabs during COVID (2020) and 2022–24 highs; Smart Money sweeping both ends.
📊 Fib: Final leg projected to terminate near 0.5 retracement of Wave 3 (~$47.55).
🔍 Price Action: Distribution in 2011–14, liquidation in 2020, false rallies, and compression since 2022.
🧨 Macro: GFC aftermath, shale oversupply, COVID demand crash, ESG underinvestment. Currently driven by energy policy chaos and geopolitical rebalancing.
⏳ Wave 4 is near completion , with the final move expected to tag the 0.5 retracement before reversal.
🔹 Wave 5 – Upcoming Macro Breakout (2026–2032 est.)
⚡ Technicals: Expected impulsive breakout wave toward price discovery.
🧠 SMC: Anticipate Break of Structure (BoS) above $147 for confirmation of markup phase.
📊 Fib: Target zone between previous high ($147) and 2.618 extension (~$366.58).
🔥 Macro: Long-term underinvestment, peak cheap oil, geopolitical tension (Russia, Middle East), energy transition bottlenecks. Inflation & policy shifts will add fuel.
📍 This is the final leg of the cycle and could mirror or even exceed the explosiveness of Wave 3 due to multi-decade supply-demand imbalances.
✅ Final Summary
Crude Oil is completing its Wave 4 correctio n, expected to bottom around $47.55 — the 0.5 retracement of Wave 3 . The corrective structure is nearly exhausted, showing signs of Smart Money accumulation and multi-leg exhaustion. Once Wave 4 completes, a powerful Wave 5 is expected to begin, targeting $195–$366 , driven by macro energy scarcity, inflation, and long-term capital flow back into commodities.
This is a strategic inflection zone — where technical compression meets macro ignition.
"Master the waves, follow the smart money, and let Fibonacci guide your path to consistent trading success." — FIBCOS
#WTICrudeOil #ElliottWave #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #WaveTheory #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #OilTrading #CommodityAnalysis #MarketCycles #PriceAction
USOIL H4 | Bullish Reversal at Key SupportBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has bounced off the buy entry, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 61.60, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 60.22, whic is a swing low support.
Take profit is at 63.69, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USOIL Struggles to Hold Gains, Bearish Trend Intact
Current market sentiment is bearish.
USOIL is struggling to hold above resistance and leaning towards support.
USOIL is trading at $63.76, below the mid-Bollinger band → showing weak momentum.
Price failed to hold above $66–68 resistance zone and is now trending lower.
Price is leaning towards the lower band, suggesting bearish continuation risk.
USOIL Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 58.309.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 54.034 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
WTI with bearish momentum dominatingDue to a larger-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories, WTI prices fell. From the daily chart perspective, oil prices have broken below the lower edge of the trading range, and the medium-term objective trend is downward. Currently, oil prices are fluctuating near the lower edge of this range. The fast and slow lines of the MACD indicator are below the zero line, with bearish momentum dominating. It is expected that the probability of oil prices moving in an oscillating downward pattern in the medium term is relatively high.
Sell 60 - 60.2 TP 59 - 59.5 SL 60.5
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
WTI Crude Oil: What Could Happen Next?Oil prices are sitting at a really important spot right now. Here’s what to watch for:
If the price drops below $58.28, it could keep falling toward $50.
If it breaks below $50, we might see it slide into the $43–$46 range.
But if oil climbs back above $65, it could run up toward $74 again.
So in simple terms:
👉 Below $58 = could fall more
👉 Above $65 = could rise again
We’re in a “wait and see” zone ; the next move will show which way oil really wants to go.
If you’re watching this market and not sure what these levels mean for your trades, feel free to DM us ; happy to break it down in plain English or share how I’m looking at it myself.
Mindbloome Exchange
USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 58.07
Target Level: 63.04
Stop Loss: 54.76
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅