Multi-Dimensional Core Analysis(1) Supply-Demand Dynamics: Surplus Dominates as the Primary Pressure, Weak Policy Support
The supply side shows a clear loose trend. Although OPEC+ plans to pause production growth in Q1 2026, it will still increase output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December. Combined with the cumulative production hike of nearly 2.5 million bpd since earlier, the market has digested the policy-driven positive sentiment, and surplus expectations now dominate the market. For non-OPEC+ producers, U.S. crude oil output has reached a record high of 13.834 million bpd, and the IEA has revised up its 2025 U.S. production forecast to 13.59 million bpd, further exacerbating supply pressure. Demand recovery remains sluggish: U.S. EIA gasoline inventories surged by 2.327 million barrels in November, confirming weak end-consumption. The IEA predicts global supply surplus will reach 4.09 million bpd in 2026, and the persistent supply-demand mismatch continues to suppress oil prices.
(2) Geopolitics: Risk Premium Fades, De-escalation Expectations Weigh
Positive progress has been made in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and the U.S.-promoted ceasefire plan has reduced concerns about supply disruptions. The previous geopolitical risk premium of $5–$10 per barrel has gradually faded. The Middle East situation remains relatively stable, with no disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical factors have shifted from a support to a suppressant, with only the potential for sudden conflicts as a possible source of volatility.
(3) U.S. Dollar Trend: Strong Volatility Suppresses Prices, Cooling Easing Expectations
The U.S. Dollar Index has broken above the key 100 mark, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped from 48.9% to 32.7%. Uncertainty surrounding monetary policy has strengthened the dollar’s strength. The correlation between crude oil and the U.S. dollar stands at -0.7, as higher procurement costs for non-U.S. dollar countries restrain demand, becoming a key resistance to oil price rebounds.
(4) Technical Outlook: Short-Term Weak Oscillation, Support Levels Under Test
WTI crude oil has fallen below the 50-day moving average, with the 100-period SMA ($59.22) on the 4-hour chart forming dynamic resistance. The RSI indicator hovers around 40, not entering the oversold zone. The key support level is $57.5; a valid break below this level will trigger a decline to $57.04. Resistance is concentrated around $59.5 above, with limited rebound momentum, resulting in an overall weak oscillatory pattern.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
sell：59-58.5
tp:58-57.5
sl:59.8
