Got stuck on SNDL ? want to jump in on the pump ? full analysisSNDL let's jump in!
Technicals :
1. Stock had a motive wave – we can see its not an impulse wave but a regular motive because the stock doesn’t fit the golden rules of impulse wave by Elliot's theory.
- In the duration of 2 days the stock made a move of 231%.
- RSI OVERBOUGH during the whole period
- ADX way above 40 middle line – asset extremely trending!
- VWAP below candles meaning traders are buying in a higher price then avg
- POC (red line) WAY below the price action (note this is the visible range so it includes all of Feb volume)
Conclusion: Asset was trending in extreme hype (Sentiment) just like my cover on HCMC from yesterday -we are looking at pure hype and no real catalyst – overvalued.
2. Correction wave – as we predicted in the union group this is a correction wave – NOT a pullback the difference is pullback is healthy but what we are seeing here is a stock dump.
- In the duration of one-day stock corrected down 43%.
- Notice RSI not oversold – asset value avg still high (RSI settings is 14)
- ADX not trending anymore – going into the lower half (below 40)
- VWAP way above price vol level
- POC (red line) still lower than asset price (note this is the visible range so it includes all of Feb volume)
- Chart clues: no higher wick on the highest candle in the trend showing no struggle between buyers to sellers – very bad indication – this is as if everyone pulled out together and turned from bulls to bears at the same time!
Conclusion: asset was dumped either in coordination or in a domino effect – which is more likely – traders so money pulling out of the stock and it caused them to pull out as well and cause asset value to drop significantly and rapidly – pump and dump style
This means a lot of traders that bought high were left ‘holding the bag’ as is common in a pump and dump and that is why we train our traders how to spot clues on the chart and in volume readers to know when they should pull out as pump and dump is super high risk!
Volume analysis:
AVG 3m: 552M
Last week of trading avg: 630M (estimate – not way to know the accurate number)
High peaks :
10th of Feb: 758M
11th of Feb: 1.05B !!!! notice this is DUMPING volume !! pump and dump clearly!
In the chart I have described 2 possible outcome – obviously can only go or down but how do we know which one it will be :
Good scenario:
If we see asset price cross the $ 2.60 and starts channeling sideways or keeps rising that means there is hope for the traders stuck in the higher prices to get reached and get out – I don’t think it will go higher than 3.7$ -so if you get a chance to get out -go for it! if you are considering entering and you are not in – the price you want is $.260 ! not below it!
Bad scenario:
If we see asset price travel below 1.65 (below gap – yellow box) into the red zone market on the map this could be a time to take the loss and get out as the asset will trend down and side-channel there (hope I am wrong for your sake) if you want to enter the asset and you see it trending down consider waiting for it to land on the POC level at $1.25 ( remember POC is like a “magnet” and price will travel towards it), from there expect a longer hold till we get another rally on the asset unless we get catalyst news (fundamentals).
This is the chart on a 1-week view to show the power of this sharp move:
Important to note (taken from Seeking Alpha):
“Sundial Growers (NASDAQ: SNDL) has priced a registered offering of 100M Series A Units, each consisting of one common share and one-half Series A Warrant to purchase one common share and 33,333,334 Series B Units, each consisting of one pre-funded Series B Warrant to purchase one common share and one-half Series A Warrant to purchase one common share.”
Trade safe and be safe
FDGT the traders union
