QQQ Snapback Rally?This chart layers in the Fibonacci pivot structure (R1, R2, S1, etc), the trend channel & the measured move from the recent high
QQQ is down roughly –5.5% from its 2025 high near $613.18, sitting at $589.50, which is directly in line with the pivot level of $587.59
This aligns with the lower edge of the prior channel & 50d MA, meaning QQQ is currently testing its equilibrium point after a strong run
The 38d up leg from August to October is typical of QQQ’s swing rhythm; retracements of 5–6% after 35–40 days of trending are very common
Statistically, a rebound to R1 ($604) is more probable than a further slide below S1 - provided QQQ holds $585 early in the week, so in the next 1-2 weeks,
R3 $630.93 is the stretch rebound target (upper Bollinger + prior high)
R2 $614.37 is the gap-fill + retest of broken wedge
R1 $604.15 is the mean-reversion target (20d MA)
P (Pivot) $587.59 is the current balance point/trendline
S1 $571.04 is the extension of a breakdown if the 50d MA fails
S2 $560.81 is a major Fib support/panic low
S3 $544.26 is the 200d MA
This selloff looks more like a “reset” within a bullish trend than a structural reversal
Volume spiked to 97M, the highest since April suggests capitulation behavior, not sustained distribution
The channel from May’s breakout remains intact; price has simply returned to the lower bound
1. Rebound Case (Preferred/60% probability)
QQQ stabilizes above $585–$587, then reclaims $595–$600
Once $600 clears, momentum accelerates to R1 ($604) & possibly R2 ($614)
The full reversion move could take 5–10 trading days
2. Continuation Case (30% probability)
Failure to hold $585 with a retest S1 ($571) within 2-4 sessions
That would fulfill the entire measured move (–6.5%–7%), after which a base forms into late October
Historically, after wedge breaks of this size, QQQ reclaims half to two-thirds of the drop
