SPY: Second week of NovemberPretty original title huh.
Lol, here are my thoughts on SPY generally going into the next week.
Expect tons of volatility!
Safe trades and enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Trade ideas
MAJOR BEARISH WAVE STRUCTURE CYCLES TOPPINGThe chart posted is the etf SPY ,I am now as bearish and if not more that my work 11/29/12/6 2024 . I am of The view that the bull market that started on march 23 2020 is at the END That low was 2191 and we are now almost equal to the rally from AUGUST 11 1987 to the August 25th 1987 high on a PCT basis . and the shiller p/e model work I keep is only a few ticks aways from the 1920 to 1929 peak on an equal basis as well that was 41.36 print . My cycles are RATHER BEARISH in Liquidity from now and into mid oct 2026 into the 4 year cycle . I am now 110 % short . Best of trades WAVETIMER
SPY Leads — Key Levels for AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, MSFT-Nov. 11SPY Leads — Key Levels for AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, MSFT
The market continues to move in a coordinated way, with SPY leading the overall direction and the major tech names reacting closely to its momentum. With SPY pressing into the upper range again, the large caps are setting up for their own key levels and potential continuation moves.
Below is a clean breakdown of SPY’s current structure, the GEX map that guides the bigger move, and how AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, and MSFT are positioned based on their daily charts. This gives a clear view of where strength may continue and where pullbacks might offer opportunities.
SPY — Daily Outlook
SPY chart shows a strong continuation candle pressing right under the upper range. Buyers stepped in earlier at the mid-zone, and momentum (MACD + Stoch RSI) is turning upward, confirming strength returning. There’s no topping wick — no weakness — just steady buying pressure.
SPY is now positioned to push into the next resistance band, which aligns cleanly with what the GEX map shows.
Key Levels (from the chart)
• Upside: 683 → 688–690
• Downside: 677 → 672
Trading Suggestion
Best long setup tomorrow is a small pullback into 677–678 if buyers continue to hold trend.
If SPY lifts directly into 688–690, expect hesitation or a short scalp window.
Options Idea
Calls above 677 with trend continuation.
Puts only if SPY hits 688–690 and shows slowdown or rejection.
SPY — GEX Outlook
GEX chart shows:
• Strong Call Wall: 688–689
• Put Support: 670–672
• Gamma Momentum Zone: 676–681
• Tight compression → often causes slow grind upward until a wall hits
This matches the price action perfectly — SPY naturally wants to drift into 688–689. That’s the level where hedging pressure increases, and price often stalls or reverses.
GEX Interpretation
→ Above 681, SPY wants 688.
→ 688–689 is where price either squeezes or rejects.
→ Below 676, volatility increases and a retest toward 672 is possible.
AAPL — Daily Outlook
AAPL is still trending inside its rising structure and respecting demand around 259–247. The latest candle shows buyers defending mid-range, and SPY’s strength supports continuation.
Key Levels
• Upside: 273 → 280
• Downside: 262–259
Trading Suggestion
Look for long entries on dips into 262–259 if SPY holds its trend.
Options Idea
Short-term calls toward 273–275 if AAPL stays above the rising trendline.
NVDA — Daily Outlook
NVDA bounced strongly from demand and is approaching a key level near 199. The chart structure is bullish — clean channel, BOS continuation, and momentum improving.
Key Levels
• Upside: 199 → 210
• Downside: 191 → 184
Trading Suggestion
If NVDA pushes above 199, look for a retest into 196–194 for the best entry.
Options Idea
Calls aiming for 205–210 as long as NVDA holds above the breakout zone.
TSLA — Daily Outlook
TSLA reclaimed 445, defended channel support, and is now pressing toward the mid-level. This is a classic TSLA build-up for a push into the next liquidity zone.
Key Levels
• Upside: 456 → 470 → 500
• Downside: 445 → 432
Trading Suggestion
Long bias as long as TSLA holds above 445.
Clean continuation if 456–460 breaks.
Options Idea
Calls toward 470 if SPY holds strong and TSLA stays above 445.
AMZN — Daily Outlook
AMZN is one of the cleanest bullish structures in the group. The BOS → pullback → continuation setup is intact, and price remains above key support.
Key Levels
• Upside: 256 → 270
• Downside: 242–238
Trading Suggestion
Best long setup: dips into 246–244, or a breakout above 251 with volume.
Options Idea
Calls toward 256–258, especially if SPY continues pushing.
MSFT — Daily Outlook
MSFT is sitting inside a major demand zone (493–480) and stabilizing. Price is showing signs of holding support. The next key level to reclaim is 506, which opens the path higher.
Key Levels
• Upside: 506 → 520
• Downside: 493 → 480
Trading Suggestion
Look for a move toward 506 if SPY remains bullish.
Best dip buy is around 495–493.
Options Idea
Calls toward 520 once MSFT flips 506 into support.
My Thought
SPY’s strong daily candle shows buyers are taking control again.
Momentum is turning up, and the structure across all mega caps is aligned with continuation — unless SPY rejects at the GEX wall near 688–689.
As long as SPY stays above 677, the path of least resistance remains up, and dips in all five stocks will likely stay shallow.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your risk and follow your plan.
Spy Bullish Daily CloseSpy closed the week out bullish as it closed green and up over 670 and is at 672 in after hours. If you look at the chart you will see that that wick on the daily trapped about 1% of the friday bears. Today was the highest volume candle of the week at over 100m.
Also,
There is about 50k in option put OI. Always remember to take a photo or screen shot of this on Friday and look at it again on Monday. We may get a morning squeeze to open up on Monday once these are closed. I do think we pull back more to retest this level before eventually going higher.
One trade could be shorting 684 back into 672. (stop 685.) These are all short term as the longer term thesis is bullish.
I believe we see 700 spy by EOD.
See you on the other side.
SPY at a Critical Retest This Week (Nov 10–14)SPY pulled back after printing a fresh weekly BOS, and now it’s sitting right on top of a major trendline that has supported every rally since early summer. This week is all about whether SPY stabilizes or whether momentum cools enough to trigger a deeper corrective move.
Here’s the full structured breakdown.
1. Weekly Timeframe (1W)
Macro Structure
SPY has been in a strong weekly uptrend since the March bottom, printing BOS after BOS with clean demand re-accumulation zones. Last week gave us the first meaningful pullback after tagging the upper boundary of the rising macro channel.
The weekly trendline from April is still intact, and SPY is currently sitting right above it.
As long as this trendline holds, bulls keep control.
Weekly MACD remains bullish but is curling for a momentum slowdown. Stoch RSI is turning down from overbought territory — not a bearish reversal yet, but a signal that SPY is cooling off after a multi-month climb.
Weekly Key Zones
Support: 652–660
Next major support: 612–620
Resistance above: 700+ (upper channel)
Weekly Take
This is a cooling phase inside a bullish macro trend. The weekly trend only flips if SPY breaks under 652 and closes below it.
2. Daily Timeframe (1D)
Trend and Structure
SPY printed a clear daily CHoCH, followed by a shift back into the prior range. The break of structure at the highs confirms sellers stepped in after several failed attempts to push into 690+.
The key zone right now is 660–670, where trendline support and a large daily demand zone overlap.
Daily MACD flipped red and expanded lower. Stoch RSI is in oversold territory — SPY has room to bounce, but there's no confirmed reversal yet.
Daily Levels
Hold above 670 → upside back into 678, then 685.
Break below 670 → opens 662, then 652.
Daily View
SPY is sitting on important support, and buyers must defend 670 early this week to avoid a sharper drop.
3. 1-Hour Timeframe (1H)
Short-Term Structure
SPY has been moving inside a clean descending channel for days. Multiple BOS events confirmed the downtrend, but we finally got a bullish CHoCH near 662 — the first real sign of buyers stepping in.
Now price is pushing toward the top of the channel around 672–673. This is the short-term pivot.
1H MACD is curling up with strong momentum.
Stoch RSI supports continuation into resistance.
1H Trade Levels
Reject 672–673 → pullback toward 668 then 662.
Break above 673 → opens 678 and possibly 680.
This level will set the tone for Monday’s open.
4. 15-Minute Timeframe (15M)
Intraday Structure
The 15M broke the downtrend first, with a tight BOS + CHoCH combo. Follow-through is clean, and price is now forming a higher-low sequence while holding above intraday demand.
The intraday ceiling remains 672–673, matching the 1H trendline.
MACD on 15M is strong, with rising histogram bars.
Stoch RSI is elevated but still has breathing room.
15M Trade Levels
Above 673 → scalp long into 676, then 678–680.
Reject at 673 → scalp short back to 668, then 665.
SPY will likely decide its direction for the entire session at this level.
5. GEX Map & Options Analysis
GEX Highlights
Positive GEX (call resistance): 678 → 682 → 685
Negative GEX (put support): 666 → 661 → 658
Large call walls above 680–685 will slow upside.
Large put walls below 666–661 will attract price if SPY fails at 673.
What That Means This Week
– Upside becomes heavy near 680–685
– Losing 670 shifts gravity to 666 and 661
– As long as SPY holds above 670, market stays controlled
– Below 666 → volatility and put pressure expand fast
Options Setups
If SPY rejects 673:
→ Short-term PUTs aiming for 668 → 666
If SPY breaks 673 and holds:
→ Short-term CALLs targeting 676 → 680
Avoid chasing moves into 685 — heavy GEX resistance.
My Thought
SPY is sitting at a crucial support trendline, and the reaction at 672–673 will decide how the entire week unfolds. A clean break above that zone unlocks room back into 678 and 680. A rejection brings SPY back into 668, and if that breaks, then 662–661 quickly come into play.
This is a level-driven week. Let 673 decide your bias — don’t guess it.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your risk and follow your plan.
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 13, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 13, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚨 Inflation spotlight (⚠️ delay risk): October CPI and Jobless Claims — both subject to government shutdown delay — were originally scheduled for release this morning. Markets may stay cautious or reactive to leaks and private inflation trackers in the absence of official prints.
💬 Fed rotation continues: A packed Fed lineup — Mary Daly, John Williams, Kashkari, Hammack, and Bostic — will steer tone across the day, shaping expectations for December guidance.
📉 Budget check: A fresh federal deficit report (-$215B) adds to the fiscal backdrop narrative, though reaction may stay muted if major data doesn’t hit.
📊 Key Data and Events (ET)
⏰ 8:00 AM — Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed) speech
⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (Oct) | +0.3% MoM | +3.1% YoY (subject to delay)
⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Core CPI (Oct) | +0.3% MoM | +3.1% YoY (subject to delay)
⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 8) | 225,000 forecast (subject to delay)
⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) welcoming remarks
⏰ 10:25 AM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) opening remarks
⏰ 12:15 PM — Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) speech
⏰ 12:20 PM — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) speech
⏰ 2:00 PM — Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Oct) | -$215B deficit vs -$257.5B prior
⏰ 3:20 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech
⚠️ Note:
CPI and Jobless Claims carry the highest market impact this week — but both remain at risk of delay due to the ongoing federal data blackout. Fed speakers and any CPI proxies (like Cleveland Fed’s nowcast) will drive intraday volatility instead.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #CPI #inflation #Fed #Williams #Bostic #Musanlem #Hammack #macro #markets #yields #shutdown
Daily SPY (US500) Outlook - Prediction (10 NOV)📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains slightly bearish as expectations for a December rate cut may be postponed into 2026. We have seen some sell-offs, likely due to hedging or profit-taking activity. However, the market experienced a healthy bounce last Friday, as anticipated in my previous Daily SPY Outlook on November 7.
Trump announced that American citizens, excluding high-income individuals, will receive a $2,000 payment. This news could inject additional liquidity into risk assets, similar to what occurred during his first term. In my opinion, this may create a short-term bullish narrative for the markets.
📈 Technical Analysis
The ES market is showing strong pre-market inflows. I think the price may continue seeking higher levels, possibly targeting the 681 zone today.
📌 Game Plan
In my opinion, calls may perform well today. I plan to buy at the market open and take profits around the 681 level.
💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
SPY: First week of November and Seasonality!Hey everyone,
The obligatory SPY post has arrived.
In it, I talk a bit about seasonality and some outstanding high probability targets on SPY, as well as the levels for next week.
Hope you enjoy! And as always, safe trades!
Daily SPY (US500) Outlook - Prediction (11 NOV)Daily SPY (US500) Outlook - Prediction (11 NOV)
📊 Market Sentiment
The market is turning bullish following the potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, along with the proposed $2,000 incentives for U.S. citizens. These factors could create strong inflows into equities and improve short-term sentiment.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price moved sharply higher on Monday, reaching the 681 level as expected (see my previous SPY outlook). The 681 level remains a strong resistance zone, and we have already seen a rejection from that area.
📌 Game Plan
In my opinion, the market may turn short-term bearish today. After rejecting 681, the price could target the 675 level and possibly though not necessarily reach 671.5.
My plan is to short the market toward 675 and observe if a bounce occurs. If it does, I will look to buy calls, expecting a move toward new highs around 685.
💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 12, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 12, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
💬 Fed marathon day: Six Fed officials speak across the day, led by Williams, Waller, and Bostic — giving markets multiple reads on the Fed’s reaction to soft labor data and upcoming inflation prints.
📉 Policy sensitivity rising: With no major macro releases this week, investors are hypersensitive to tone shifts in Fed commentary — especially regarding rate-cut timing and balance sheet guidance.
🧩 Positioning churn: After a light Tuesday session, liquidity normalizes as equities digest global risk appetite and pre-CPI setups.
📊 Key Data and Events (ET)
⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed)
⏰ 10:20 AM — Chris Waller (Fed Governor)
⏰ 12:15 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed)
⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Governor)
⏰ 4:00 PM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed)
⚠️ Note:
No economic data releases today — markets will key off Fed tone and Treasury yield movement ahead of Thursday’s CPI and jobless claims (both still at risk of delay).
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #Fed #Williams #Waller #Bostic #Miran #Collins #macro #inflation #yields #markets
SPY Is Coiling for a Break. TA for Nov. 12-15SPY Is Coiling for a Break — Gamma Pressure Deciding the Next Move
SPY is in one of the most critical setups we’ve seen this month. At first glance, the candles look slow and indecisive — but when you combine structure with the gamma map, the entire story becomes clear:
SPY is sitting on top of a major positive gamma shelf, but trapped underneath a stacked wall of call resistance.
This is exactly the kind of setup where price looks like “nothing is happening”… right before something does.
Let’s break it down.
4H Chart — A Tight Battle Between Trendline Support & Overhead Supply
On the 4H, SPY is compressing between two major forces:
1️⃣ Rising trendline from late October
Every dip into this angled support has been bought aggressively — a sign institutions are still defending their positions.
2️⃣ A flat supply zone at 682–689
This level has rejected multiple times, forming CHoCH cycles and micro pullbacks.
3️⃣ BOS confirms upside attempts, but momentum fades near 683–685
The tug-of-war is real.
SPY is forming a tightening triangle, and gamma explains why.
1H Chart — Clear Range, Fake Moves, and Dealer Control
On the 1H, SPY has been executing the same pattern repeatedly:
* Pop into 683 → fade
* Drop into 678–679 → bounce
* Mid-range chop around 680–681
This is textbook neutral gamma price action.
The candles aren’t showing weakness or strength — they’re showing controlled hedging behavior, where dealers pin price in a tight band until order flow shifts.
🔥 GEX Data — Where SPY’s Real Breakout Will Come From
GEX map reveals the full story behind the chop.
🔹 Massive positive GEX & call walls at 683–685
This is the “Gamma Ceiling.”
* 681 → first resistance
* 682 → GEX6
* 683–685 → heavy call walls + highest NET GEX
If SPY closes above this region with momentum, hedging flows flip bullish and price begins an upward drift.
🔹 Neutral gamma zone at 679–682
This is where SPY is stuck now.
This zone naturally “pins” SPY and causes fake breakouts.
🔹 Negative gamma zone below 678
This is the danger zone.
Below 678 →
Dealers short gamma →
Volatility expands →
Downside accelerates →
Support becomes slippery
Targets open at:
676 → 675 → 673
This is exactly why SPY refuses to stay below 678 — but if it breaks, it will move fast.
🔥 Trading Suggestions — Based on Structure + GEX
📌 Bullish Setup (Higher Probability if 683 Breaks)
ENTRY:
Break & hold above 682.50–683
TARGETS:
* 685.50 (first magnet)
* 688–690 (gamma wall)
* 695 (drift expansion zone)
STOP-LOSS:
Below 680
WHY IT WORKS:
Above 683, SPY escapes the call wall and enters a positive gamma drift.
📌 Bearish Setup (Triggered Only If 678 Breaks)
ENTRY:
Break + retest failure below 678
TARGETS:
* 676
* 675
* 673
STOP-LOSS:
Above 680
WHY IT WORKS:
Below 678, SPY flips to negative GEX → dealers forced to hedge → stronger downside velocity.
📌 Neutral Strategy (If SPY Stays 679–682)
This is the current environment.
Ideal strategies:
* Iron condor
* Credit spreads
* Short strangles
* Calendar spreads
Neutral GEX = low-movement → premium decay wins.
🔥 Options Suggestions (Based on GEX)
Bullish Option Play (if 683 breakout)
Buy:
685C or 690C (0–2 weeks out)
Safer Spread:
683/690 call debit spread
Matches the gamma ramp perfectly.
Bearish Option Play (if 678 breakdown)
Buy:
677P or 675P
Safer Spread:
678/672 put spread
Aligned with negative gamma flush zones.
Neutral Option Play (current chop zone)
If SPY remains between 679–682:
* 678/683 iron condor
* ATM calendar at 681
* 680/682 iron butterfly
These are ideal in a pinned gamma environment.
My Thought
SPY is in a classic gamma compression setup. The candles look calm, but the hedging flows are tightening, squeezing price into a narrow band. Once 683 or 678 breaks, volatility will surge in that direction.
The roadmap is simple:
* Above 683 → breakout drift toward 688–690
* Below 678 → negative gamma flush toward 675–673
* Between 679–682 → pinned, choppy, low-volatility chop
A major move is loading — and GEX already shows the path.
This outlook is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your risk and trade your plan.
Stock Market Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFTStock Market Forecast | CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! SP:SPX NASDAQ:NDX
Mag 7 | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFT
SPY QuantSignals V3 | 0DTE Scalper PlanSPY QuantSignals V3 | 0DTE | 2025-11-12
🎯 Direction: 🟩 BUY CALLS
📊 Confidence: 62% (Low Conviction)
🧭 Bias: NEUTRAL → Slight Bullish Tilt
⚠️ Risk: Moderate (Reduce Size)
💹 TRADE SETUP
Parameter Details
Expiry 2025-11-12 (same-day)
Strike $684.00
Entry $1.80 – $1.82
Target 1 $2.70 (~50% gain)
Stop Loss $1.20
Gamma Risk Low
🧠 QUICK ANALYSIS
Katy AI Forecast:
→ Neutral (50% confidence)
→ Range: -0.20% – +0.15%
→ Slight afternoon uptick → peak ~$685.43 @ 15:33
Tech Check:
SPY @ $684.42 > VWAP ($684.25) → Mild bullish bias
RSI 21.7 → oversold bounce zone
Trend Strength 76.7% → strong regime detected
Range: $682.43 – $685.88 (watch resistance at $685.88)
Flow Intel:
Put/Call Ratio = 1.55 → Bearish skew (contrarian long setup)
Heavy $696 puts → mostly hedging, not conviction selling
News Sentiment:
Mixed:
• Fed comments = neutral
• OpenAI headlines = slightly negative
• Gov. shutdown vote = potential bullish catalyst (PM session)
⚖️ RISK NOTE
High volatility + 0DTE decay → scalp only 🕒
Use small sizing; exit on failed bounce below VWAP.
$SPY the final leg higher, then 20%+ correctionI know there are a lot of people calling for a crash right here, and while I do think we end up getting one, I think there's one last move higher above $700 first.
I think we need to squeeze out the shorts and convince everyone the next leg is starting before we see a move down.
I do think after we hit and reject one of the upper resistances, that it will set up a great short opportunity.
The trigger for the short will be UVIX to hit it's lower support levels combined with SPY hitting it's upper resistances.
Don't know what will cause the move, but I think it'll likely happen even faster than the April move.
So be prepared to exit as we approach the highs or set tight stop losses.
Weekly SPY (US500) Outlook - Prediction (09 NOV)Weekly SPY Outlook - Prediction (09 NOV)
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains slightly bearish as expectations for a December rate cut may be pushed into 2026. We have seen some sell-offs, likely due to hedging or profit-taking activity. However, the market experienced a healthy bounce last Friday, as anticipated in my previous Daily SPY Outlook on November 7.
Today, Trump announced that American citizens, excluding high-income individuals, will receive a $2,000 payment. This news could inject additional liquidity into risk assets, similar to what occurred during his first term. In my opinion, this development may create a short-term bullish narrative for the markets.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price retraced throughout the week and reached the 663 level, where it bounced as expected from my November 7 outlook. The 663 zone represents the most discounted range (based on my quarterly range theory, 0.75 fib level), which I consider an optimal buy area. This level also coincides with daily swing liquidity, and the reaction suggests a potential move toward new all-time highs.
📌 Game Plan
I’m considering two possible scenarios for this week:
Scenario 1 (Black Line):
In my opinion, the price now has enough momentum to extend higher and create new all-time highs. Therefore, I’ll be watching for a daily close above the 671 level. If confirmed, I plan to buy SPY calls targeting new highs.
Scenario 2 (Red Line):
If the price fails to close above 671, it may indicate that more accumulation is needed before another upward move. In that case, I’ll look to short (buy puts) toward the 657 level and observe whether we can bounce from there. Should that happen, I’ll then switch to calls and target higher levels.
💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
NVDA · AMD · SMCI · AVGO — Sector Setup Nov 12–15AI & Semiconductor Power Shift: NVDA, AMD, SMCI, AVGO Align with SPY’s Gamma Structure ⚡
Market Preview (SPY + Sector Overview)
The market continues to show underlying strength, led by technology and semiconductor names that mirror SPY’s bullish structure.
On the SPY 1D chart, the uptrend remains intact — every pullback has formed a higher low, and buyers are consistently defending the rising trendline around 678–680. This price action reflects steady institutional demand as traders position for a potential year-end continuation.
From the 1-hour GEX map, the main positive gamma magnet sits around 683–685, where dealer hedging is most supportive. Below that, 681 serves as a critical intraday support zone, and dips into 679–681 are often met with call-side absorption. As long as SPY holds above 681, the bias stays bullish toward 687–690.
📊 Sector Snapshot:
AI and Semiconductor stocks (NVDA, AMD, SMCI, AVGO) continue to shadow SPY’s gamma-driven direction. As long as SPY’s gamma stays positive, liquidity remains stable, allowing tech leaders to extend their recovery from recent pullbacks. This group is showing signs of synchronized momentum — a bullish sign for continuation plays.
Trade Suggestion:
* Intraday: Watch for SPY to hold 681 — CALL scalp target 685–687.
* Swing: Above 681 daily close → potential rally toward 690–695.
* Option Setup: 0–2 DTE CALL 680 / 682 if volume supports; hedge below 679 with PUT spread.
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Daily Structure: NVDA remains the sector’s momentum leader, stabilizing near 190–193 after defending the channel bottom. The structure still shows bullish intent with clean BOS levels holding.
1H Chart: Multiple CHoCH signals and an upward MACD cross hint at a near-term reversal forming.
Trade Suggestion:
* Bullish Entry: > 195–196 reclaim → target 200–211 zone.
* Bearish Setup: < 190 → quick PUT scalp to 178.9 support.
* Option Setup: CALL 200 / 205 if SPY trends above 683; PUT spread 190 if below.
📈 Bias: NVDA leads any gamma-fueled breakout — strong volume = strong follow-through.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Daily: Still trending inside a healthy ascending channel. Currently building a base around 234–238.
1H: CHoCH up confirms a potential higher low; RSI turning up supports near-term strength.
Trade Suggestion:
* Scalp: CALLs above 238 → target 245–248.
* Swing: Break & close > 250 → aim for 260 next.
* Bearish Case: Rejects < 234 → PUT scalp to 224.
* Option Setup: CALL 245 / 250 if SPY strong; PUT spread 230 as hedge.
📈 Bias: High beta to NVDA — strong correlation, good for parallel setups.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
Daily: Highly volatile, but signs of bottoming near 38–40. Repeated liquidity sweeps below 39 show sell-side exhaustion.
1H: Fresh CHoCH up → early buyers stepping in.
Trade Suggestion:
* Bullish: CALL > 41.8 → target 45–47.
* Bearish: Fail < 39 → PUT scalp to 36.
* Option Setup: CALL 42 / 45 spreads for bounce plays; stop under 39.
📈 Bias: Volatility-driven; ideal for intraday traders catching quick gamma bursts.
Broadcom (AVGO)
Daily: Remains the institutional backbone of the chip sector. Trendline support at 351–360 continues to attract buyers.
1H: Tight range 358–362, suggesting accumulation.
Trade Suggestion:
* Bullish: Break > 362 → run to 374–391.
* Bearish: Lose 351 → drop to 337.
* Option Setup: CALL 370 / 380 for swing; PUT spread 340 hedge if SPY loses 681.
📈 Bias: Low volatility, high consistency — great for controlled swing setups.
My Thought
The AI & Semiconductor group remains structurally bullish as SPY holds its gamma foundation above 681. NVDA and AMD continue to lead momentum, while AVGO provides a steady anchor and SMCI adds volatility for short-term traders. If SPY maintains its gamma magnet and sector correlation remains tight, this setup supports a sustained rally into the year-end.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 10–14, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 10–14, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Shutdown overhang persists: Key October inflation and retail reports remain at risk of delay due to limited government data releases. Market direction may rely on Fed commentary and positioning shifts more than fresh data.
📉 Inflation in focus: The CPI (Thursday) remains the main event — if it releases — as traders gauge whether cooling prices justify the market’s aggressive rate-cut bets.
💬 Fed blitz: Nearly a dozen Fed officials speak this week, including Waller, Williams, Miran, and Bostic, providing clues on how close the Fed feels to easing.
🏦 Veterans Day week rhythm: With Tuesday’s bond market closure, liquidity may thin until the CPI print, creating potential for sharp post-data reactions.
📊 Friday volatility setup: Retail Sales and PPI (if released) will shape the final inflation read-through for Q4 spending momentum.
📊 Key Data and Events (ET)
MONDAY, Nov 10
— No major releases scheduled
TUESDAY, Nov 11 (Veterans Day, bond market closed)
⏰ 6:00 AM — NFIB Optimism Index (Oct)
⏰ 10:25 AM — Michael Barr (Fed Gov) speech
WEDNESDAY, Nov 12
⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) speech
⏰ 10:00 AM — Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed) speech
⏰ 10:20 AM — Chris Waller (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 12:15 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech
⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 4:00 PM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) speech
THURSDAY, Nov 13 — CPI Day (High Impact)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (Oct) ⚠️ Subject to shutdown delay
• Headline CPI: +0.2% expected
• Core CPI (YoY): TBD
⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 8) ⚠️ May be delayed
⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) speech
⏰ 12:15 PM — Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) speech
⏰ 12:20 PM — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) speech
⏰ 2:00 PM — Federal Budget Statement (Oct) | $257.5B deficit
⏰ 3:20 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech
FRIDAY, Nov 14 — Retail & PPI (High Impact)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Oct) ⚠️ May be delayed
⏰ 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (Oct) ⚠️ May be delayed
⏰ 10:05 AM — Jeff Schmid (Kansas City Fed) speech
⏰ 2:30 PM — Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) speech
⚠️ Note:
All starred data (CPI, Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, PPI, Business Inventories) remain subject to delay under the continuing government shutdown. Markets may trade on Fed tone and yield movement in the absence of these releases.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #Fed #CPI #RetailSales #inflation #bonds #macro #yields #markets #shutdown #Bostic #Waller #Williams #Logan
SPY Free Signal! Sell! (For Monday)
Hello,Traders!
SPY has tapped into a premium supply zone, triggering a potential bearish delivery after a clean liquidity grab above equal highs. Expect continuation toward sell-side imbalance.
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Stop Loss: 674.31$
Take Profit: 666.68$
Entry Level: 670.89$
Time Frame: 2H
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Sell!
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November 10 - 14 2025
1. Macro
I have made several changes to my Macro layout to make it more focused and intuitive for options trading. I still watch commodities and check the gauge from time to time, but I have found they are too volatile, cyclical, and noisy for me to be keeping such close tabs on. Instead, my renewed focus is to assess risk across currency (gold and fiat) and bonds, which in turn will help me measure the attractiveness of stocks in real time.
Since Mid-September, the dollar TVC:DXY has been on a steady rise. Meanwhile, the Z-score of $(DXY*TYIE) (Dollar FX strength multiplied by real yield) has been falling over the same period before pivoting at the end of October. This would suggest that real yields were falling at a rate that outpaced the dollar’s relative strengthening. The pivot came at the same time that TVC:GOLD started to pull back from its nearly 30% rally. Keep in mind that real yields rising is bearish for gold.
I’m also bringing in $GOLD/GVZ which serves as a good early exhaustion gauge for Gold. Here we can see that traders loaded up on AMEX:GLD puts before the price pulled back, but have since reverted back to the average. We will see if Gold continues its uptrend or if more volatility is to come.
Next, I’m looking at the Z-score of the dollar TVC:DXY against the price (not yield) of a 10Y US-bond. The idea here is to simply gauge whether the market has a preference for cash or risk-free bonds. This measures the relative risk of bonds (ie. higher yields expected: market will prefer cash). Here we can see that there seems to be a preference for cash that has close correlation with the TVC:DXY uptrend, suggesting FX is moving the dollar higher more than a change in the bond price.
I have decided to chart TVC:US02Y by itself, occasionally switching to other yields or the 10Y real yield FRED:DFII10 ), since it is more sensitive to policy than 10Y and more volatile than 03MY. Here, the nominal yield started to rise at the same time as when TVC:GOLD & CBOE:GVZ peaked and the dollar*real yield gauge pivoted. The forward inflation gauge (bottom right) has stayed mostly down but is showing signs of flattening out, perhaps finding support for a move higher.
What does all of this tell me? I think this sends a clear message that the market thinks nominal yields will continue to rise, yet I’m not yet getting the signal that this is due to a change in how the market is pricing inflation. Due to shutdown delays (which will hopefully be ending soon), the latest available real yield print is from Thursday November 6, and with the movement on Friday it will be important to see how the forward inflation gauge changes when it gets updated.
If nominal yields continue to rise TVC:US02MY and TVC:GOLD confirms without hedging CBOE:GVZ , this would send a risk-off signal. On the flip-side, the market would need to see continued FX strength for the dollar AND nominal yields flat or falling to confirm a risk-on pivot. Right now this leans risk-off but I will be watching closely.
2. FX
Made a couple changes to the FX layout to support the same line of thinking. Might tweak this more depending on how insightful it is. Top pane is now 2Y yields for selected countries. The middle pane is what I would call a “forward-looking interest rate vs historical inflation”. This is similar to the real yield but the real inflation data has much more lag, but I’m trying this out as it may suggest how loose or tight forward policy expectations might be. Lastly, I have the percent comparison of the selected currency baskets as usual.
Since the Dollar’s FX strength is playing a key role in the dollar’s attractiveness over bonds, It’s worthy to note that other currency indices currently have an inverse relationship with OPOFINANCE:DXY. The dollar caught a bid while competitors fell in late October but now it looks like the opposite is occurring. TVC:US02Y has risen and is now essentially tied for second-highest with Australia - use below Great Britain. Meanwhile, the market is pricing the US as restrictive but not as tight as France and Italy (dotted and dashed blue lines, respectively). I think this means the Eurozone will see more FX interest compared to the dollar, which could undermine its strength unless nominal yields continue to rise.
In my view, this supports a better Risk-On argument since the Euro index TVC:EXY has not started outperforming TVC:DXY yet on the indexed chart, meaning euro restrictiveness is not fully priced in. With the US in the early stages of an easing cycle and Europe still dealing with higher inflation, US conditions are likely to continue easing relative to the EU’s riskier members; France and Italy. This should keep the dollar from finding too much market interest.
Conclusion: Dollar FX will continue to be range-bound or lower. Any rise should just be seen as temporary.
3. Risk
I’ve changed my approach here to focus more on credit on a shorter-term basis. Here, I have real Option Adjusted Spreads of corporate bonds (top left, blue) like before, but will primarily watch the proxy -1*(HYG+LQD)/2/TLT (public debt vs treasuries), which is more sensitive and can provide early signals and important divergences. In the middle pane, I’m tracking $-1*HYIN (inverse of a private-credit ETF; higher value = higher risk to private credit). On the third pane I am using $ES1!/GOLD as I have always done.
This layout shows a worrying picture for the near-term. The real OAS chart (blue) is confirming the uptrend on the proxy above it is signaling stress to public credit and spreads may be on to higher highs. On the next chart, we are seeing that there is also stress to private credit that is staying above the Keltner Channel. I believe this underlying credit risk added stress to stocks over the past two weeks. If it continues there certainly could be more downside ahead. It’s also not looking good when $ES1!/GOLD is moving lower after a bounce that could potentially lead to lower low, however a key point to note is that this recent dip has been caused by stock selling, not gold buying, as I have previously pointed out, which is a very important distinction in my opinion.
My takeaway is that the credit situation should be monitored very closely. Despite this, it’s also noteworthy that the market is not rushing into risk-off assets like Gold and Treasuries, and Macro forces may even prevent a surge in both, so there is still a good chance the credit issue is temporary. Neutral/leaning bearish on this one.
4. Sector Performance
Same approach here. Only thing I want to point out is that we clearly saw a rotation out of tech AMEX:XLK and into healthcare AMEX:XLV (circled), which was the source of stock market volatility and could have been due to “smart money” positioning prior to the White House pharmaceutical pricing announcement. I doubt this trade will hold, so a rotation back into tech at some point seems likely.
5. Bias
I won’t spend too much time on this one today. I already predicted we’d see the price move higher after Friday’s close which is why I bought calls one week out. CVD clearly favored the sellers last week but right now it looks like it might be breaking through. On my volatility indicators on the left, there was strong confirmation that dealers were long puts on the days the market sold off last week but Friday appeared to show a pivot, taking out the puts. Historical Volatility (HV) is falling so there is a possibility this could be a reversion, however I think a 4% pullback and 22 on TVC:VIX with no major news supporting it was excessive. Stocks were overbought so that was more than enough for a healthy pullback to shuffle the deck.
Conclusion:
Macro indicators are important to watch this week, as I believe they will provide important clues for stock market performance. As I explained above, rising yields/strong dollar will put downward pressure on stocks but the dollar’s relative strength can be assessed through the FX lens, which suggests that even if we see nominal yields rise to start the week, investors will still have an incentive to buy US debt compared to across the pond (UK, France, Italy).
I also think the rotation out of Tech and into Healthcare was likely temporary, which let stocks pull back and investors to profit off of the healthcare-related policy news that was in the pipeline. The real bearish catalyst I’m watching is to see if credit continues to show signs of stress. If that is the case, a continued rise in gold (which we are already seeing today) could be a signal of rushing to safety, however I would also expect to see US treasuries declining simultaneously if that were the case.
All of this to say, I think it is more likely than not that stocks will recover and continue the bullish trend this week, but it is still important to watch for any signs that trouble still lies ahead. A lot can happen in a week.
Daily SPY (US500) Outlook - Prediction (12 NOV)Daily SPY (US500) Outlook - Prediction (12 NOV)
📊 Market Sentiment
The market continues to lean bullish following the potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, along with the proposed $2,000 incentives for U.S. citizens. These developments could drive stronger inflows into equities and sustain short-term positive sentiment.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price moved higher overnight, likely targeting the 686 level, supported by strong momentum carried over from the Dow Jones (US30).
📌 Game Plan
In my opinion, I will look to buy if the price retraces to the 683.5–682 zone for a potential continuation move toward 686.
However, if we see a strong breakout below 682 and a 4H candle close beneath that level, I plan to exit my position. Another possible bounce could occur around 681, but confirmation would be required before entering such a trade.
💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 11, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 11, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🇺🇸 Veterans Day — U.S. bond market closed, equities open but expect thin liquidity and lower volume.
💬 Fed focus: Fed Governor Michael Barr headlines the day’s lone major event, speaking mid-morning on financial stability and supervision.
📉 Small-business sentiment dips: The NFIB Optimism Index slipped to 98.2 from 98.8, reflecting softer hiring plans and higher cost concerns.
⚠️ Shutdown delays: Broader federal data remains constrained this week — investors will continue watching Fed commentary for policy cues.
📊 Key Data and Events (ET)
⏰ 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Oct) | 98.2 vs 98.8 prior
⏰ 10:25 AM — Michael Barr (Fed Governor) speech
📉 Bond market closed for Veterans Day; expect quieter sessions and possible afternoon drift in equities.
⚠️ Note:
No Tier-1 data today. With lighter volume and no Treasury trading, price action will likely be headline-driven. Keep an eye on Barr’s tone for any hints on post-shutdown policy or liquidity support.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #Fed #MichaelBarr #NFIB #VeteransDay #markets #macro #liquidity #bonds
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – Game PlanSPY (S&P 500 ETF) – Game Plan
📊 Market Sentiment
On October 29, the FED lowered rates by 25bps as expected. However, Powell’s remarks introduced uncertainty around further cuts in December, emphasizing that future policy will depend on incoming data.
One FED member dissented, preferring no cut this cycle — a notable shift from September’s unanimous decision.
Additionally, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came at 42K versus 32K expected. It’s slightly higher, but since other macro data are missing due to the U.S. government shutdown, the overall sentiment remains unclear.
For now, sentiment leans bearish, as rate cuts may be delayed into 2026.
📈 Technical Analysis
SPY recently touched the 670 level an important support zone representing the equilibrium of the current daily range and an area with significant liquidity.
However, with bearish macro sentiment, I don’t expect this level to hold for long. The structure suggests that price wants to seek lower liquidity zones.
📌 Game Plan / Expectations
My primary scenario is a short move targeting 663, which aligns with the 0.75 max discount zone. From there, a potential rally toward all-time highs could begin.
Scenario 2: If the 663 level fails to hold, I will look for another bounce opportunity near 657.
Overall, I don’t see this as a start of a bear market — rather a healthy correction within the broader bullish structure. I’ll be positioning for buys once the downside liquidity objectives are met.
💬 For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack — free access available.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
SPY FREE SIGNAL|SHORT|
✅SPY is currently retesting a premium supply zone after clearing buy-side liquidity. If the retest confirms rejection with displacement, a bearish continuation toward imbalance below is likely.
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Entry: 670.89$
Stop Loss: 674.31$
Take Profit: 666.68$
Time Frame: 2H
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SHORT🔥
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