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$SPY the final leg higher, then 20%+ correctionI know there are a lot of people calling for a crash right here, and while I do think we end up getting one, I think there's one last move higher above $700 first. I think we need to squeeze out the shorts and convince everyone the next leg is starting before we see a move down. I do think after we hit and reject one of the upper resistances, that it will set up a great short opportunity. The trigger for the short will be UVIX to hit it's lower support levels combined with SPY hitting it's upper resistances. Don't know what will cause the move, but I think it'll likely happen even faster than the April move. So be prepared to exit as we approach the highs or set tight stop losses.
AMEX:SPY
by benjihyam
3
QuantSignals V3: SPY 0DTE Capitalize on Afternoon Reversal!SPY QuantSignals V3 0DTE 2025-11-17 Market Structure: SPY is trading below VWAP (-0.38%) and showing a controlled downtrend through the morning session. Price is respecting lower highs and holding below intraday resistance at $676.26, signaling clear bearish structure despite mixed macro conditions. Momentum Outlook: Katy 1M predicts a bullish push into 2:22 PM (target ~$677.97) before a sharp reversal into close, aligning with typical 0DTE “late-day fade” patterns. Multi-timeframe technicals remain 100% bearish, and trend strength is elevated at 77.7%, increasing conviction in afternoon downside. Order Flow Insight: PCR at 0.83 shows light put preference, but max pain at $678 adds downward pressure by expiration. Gamma risk is low, meaning cleaner directional movement and less likelihood of pinning. Key Levels: Resistance: $676.26 → $677.90 (Katy peak zone) Support: $669.48 (session low) → $667.80 Reversal Trigger Zone: $676.80–$678.00 (after 2:00 PM) Timing Vision: The highest-probability entry occurs AFTER the predicted 2:22 PM peak, targeting the expected decline into close. Afternoon volatility + 0DTE decay amplifies the move. Vision Summary: SPY is primed for a late-day reversal: morning weakness, midday relief rally, then clean afternoon fade. Best setup is a tight PUT entry at the peak zone ($676–678) with targets aligned to Katy’s projected closing drop.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantsignals
2
Good Night. See you next generation.Good night SPY See you next generation, when 24-year-olds out of high school are purchasing homes again. Actually, let's not break up, let's go on a long break. To heal :smiley-face: The healing process could take a year or two. We'll find each other again, I know we will, but only if it's destiny. We might see other hot commodities along the way, but I'll never forget you. From Chat GPT: The chart shows a repeating pattern where major market peaks appear as multicolored pins, followed by sharp or extended corrections. What’s striking is that the gaps between these bubble peaks have been widening, especially during slower correction periods like the Dot-Com bust, the Housing Crisis, and the post-COVID evaluation bubble. Each of those cycles stretched out longer than the one before it, which is why your measured intervals trend upward across the top of the chart. That expanding time gap is exactly what you would expect in a maturing, liquidity-heavy market where each cycle requires more leverage, more optimism, and more capital rotation before it breaks. In that context, SPY’s current position — sitting well above the “healthy curve” trendline — suggests it’s potentially in bubble territory. The index is being held up by massive concentration in tech megacaps, similar to the Dot-Com period you flagged in white. Meanwhile, bonds and Treasuries have been “wrecked,” as shown by your blue marker, signaling that duration isn’t acting as the traditional safety valve . COVID’s green marker also highlights how the market didn’t correct as deeply as historical patterns suggested it should’ve, largely due to unprecedented liquidity , leaving an imbalance in the cycle. Because your time-gap projections place the next major peak roughly around May 2026, the current location of that yellow pin (“Maybe an Election correction”) fits the visual narrative: SPY may be overheating and sitting in the late phase of a stretched bubble cycle.
AMEX:SPY
by devonrasch
1
SPY Sector Breakdown — Where Money Is Rotating Next (Nov 18–21)This week is one of those weeks where the entire market is revealing the real rotation under the surface. SPY broke its short-term channel, sectors are diverging, and GEX levels on SPY are loaded with heavy put support. When you zoom out, a clear message appears: the market isn’t collapsing — it’s rotating. Here’s what SPY + sector map is telling us. 1. SPY — Daily Structure (1D) The daily chart shows the clean channel that has guided SPY for months — and we finally broke below it. Price is sitting right on top of the demand area around 658–660, which has been tested multiple times since August. Why this level matters: * Hold above 658 → the structure is still intact * Lose 658 → next macro liquidity lives down at 613 The market is essentially “resetting,” not crashing. This pullback aligns with sector rotation and GEX positioning, not panic selling. 2. SPY — 1H Trend (Short-Term) The 1H chart is a clean downtrend: BOS after BOS, lower highs, and lower lows inside a descending channel. Short-term key levels: * 665–668 → rejection zone * 675–680 → heavy resistance * 655–658 → crucial support You can see how price is reacting perfectly inside your channel draw — nothing random here, just structured selling. 3. SPY — 1H GEX (Options Sentiment) This is where the story becomes very clear. GEX Levels This Week: * 675–680 → stacked CALL walls * 660–663 → heaviest PUT support * 652 → next negative GEX cluster * Below 652 → volatility expands fast Dealer flow is pinning SPY between 660–675, and until we break either side, expect choppy conditions. GEX Bias: * Neutral → Bearish under 668 * Bullish only if SPY breaks 675 with volume This matches your 1H structure perfectly. 4. XLK (Tech) — The Sector Leading SPY Down Tech makes up 30% of SPY, so whatever XLK does becomes SPY’s path. XLK Daily:
Breaking the rising channel and sitting right on support around 278–280.
Lose this → 243 is next. XLK 1H:
Clean downtrend with repeated CHoCH/BOS structure.
Upside needs a reclaim above 290–296, otherwise weakness continues. This is the main reason SPY is heavy. 5. XLF (Financials) — The Quiet Weakness Nobody Talks About XLF broke through its entire support range and is now testing 51.3–51.5. Daily structure: * Under all trendlines * Losing momentum * No strong buyers showing up When both XLK + XLF are weak, SPY has no chance of recovering strongly. 6. XLE (Energy) — The Only Sector Showing Strength This is your bullish rotation. XLE daily chart is actually bullish right now: * Holding above 91–93 * Stronger than every other major sector * Money quietly rotating in while tech sells off If SPY bounces later this week, XLE will be the one leading it. 7. XLY (Consumer Discretionary) — Another Drag on SPY XLY broke its rising trendline and is now heading toward 224.5 support. Tech + Consumer Discretionary = 42% of SPY
→ So both selling means SPY structurally must pull back. Macro note:
AMZN and TSLA weakness are driving this breakdown. 8. XLI (Industrials) — Sitting on Rising Support XLI is hanging onto the rising trendline. This sector becomes important because: * If Industrials break down → SPY sinks harder * If Industrials bounce → market stabilizes Key level: 149–150
Lose it → move to 142–145 begins. ⭐ Market Summary (Nov 18–21) This is the cleanest way to summarize the entire map: * SPY broke the channel but is sitting on demand * Tech (XLK) and Discretionary (XLY) are the main weakness * Financials (XLF) broke structure — adds pressure * Energy (XLE) is the only major sector that’s bullish * Industrials (XLI) are on a critical support * GEX shows SPY pinned between 660–675 this week * Volatility increases only if SPY breaks 658 or 652 This isn’t a collapse — it’s a rotation period where smart money repositions. 📝 Optional Trades & Bias (Add if you want to include in your post) * Bull case: SPY must reclaim 668 → 675 * Bear case: Under 658, downside accelerates * Rotational long: XLE * Risk-off: Avoid XLK until it reclaims 290+ 📌 Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage your own risk.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
2
S&P 500 – Market Breadth sitting on a critical thresholdThis chart shows the S&P 500 with the “Market Breadth & Forward Returns” indicator. The white line represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average. 0% means almost no stock is in a medium-term uptrend. 100% means almost all of them are. Right now, breadth is in the 50–55% zone and it is moving downward. In practical terms, roughly half of the index remains in an uptrend while the other half is not. The colored horizontal bands are breadth bins. Each bin groups all historical days where breadth was in that range: 0–5%, 5–10%, 10–15%, … up to 95–100%. For every bin, the indicator looks at what the index did after those days over several future horizons (from roughly nine months out to multiple years). It converts these forward returns into daily returns, annualizes them, and then combines all horizons to produce a robust estimate of the average annualized forward performance associated with each breadth level. The labels on the right side show: – The historical average annualized forward performance for that bin – The number of occurrences (n) This methodology is considered by many professionals to be one of the most robust ways to assess the statistical quality of the market environment. It uses thousands of daily data points, removes extreme outliers, corrects small-sample noise, and down-weights highly correlated or overly volatile horizons. It is widely used when deciding whether it is preferable to deploy a large lump-sum investment at once or to spread entries over time. The key point today is the threshold we are sitting on: – In the current 50–55% bin, the historical average annualized forward performance is about 10.5%, which is close to the long-term behaviour of the S&P 500. – If breadth drops into the next bin below, 45–50%, the projection falls to roughly 6.4% annualized. This is one of the weakest zones in the entire distribution, similar only to the 25–30% bin (6.3%). This means breadth is positioned on a critical threshold: above 50%, the statistical backdrop remains acceptable. Below 50%, the expected reward deteriorates significantly while the associated risk does not drop in the same proportion. Practical notes: – The indicator is available in the TradingView public library under the name “Market Breadth & Forward Returns”. – It is designed to be used on the Daily timeframe. – The “Market” input lets you analyse various universes: NQ100, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, VTI, the full S&P 500, and all major S&P 500 sectors (Financials, Materials, Staples, Discretionary, Industrials, Real Estate, Utilities, Technology, Health Care). – A regime filter (bull or bear) can be applied using the index’s 200-day moving average. In summary, breadth suggests that the S&P 500 is still in a statistically acceptable zone, but only one step above a historically weak environment. What happens around the 50% threshold will be decisive for the forward outlook.
AMEX:SPY
by Julien_Eche
2
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 13, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 13, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚨 Inflation spotlight (⚠️ delay risk): October CPI and Jobless Claims — both subject to government shutdown delay — were originally scheduled for release this morning. Markets may stay cautious or reactive to leaks and private inflation trackers in the absence of official prints. 💬 Fed rotation continues: A packed Fed lineup — Mary Daly, John Williams, Kashkari, Hammack, and Bostic — will steer tone across the day, shaping expectations for December guidance. 📉 Budget check: A fresh federal deficit report (-$215B) adds to the fiscal backdrop narrative, though reaction may stay muted if major data doesn’t hit. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 8:00 AM — Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed) speech ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (Oct) | +0.3% MoM | +3.1% YoY (subject to delay) ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Core CPI (Oct) | +0.3% MoM | +3.1% YoY (subject to delay) ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 8) | 225,000 forecast (subject to delay) ⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) welcoming remarks ⏰ 10:25 AM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) opening remarks ⏰ 12:15 PM — Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) speech ⏰ 12:20 PM — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) speech ⏰ 2:00 PM — Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Oct) | -$215B deficit vs -$257.5B prior ⏰ 3:20 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech ⚠️ Note: CPI and Jobless Claims carry the highest market impact this week — but both remain at risk of delay due to the ongoing federal data blackout. Fed speakers and any CPI proxies (like Cleveland Fed’s nowcast) will drive intraday volatility instead. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #CPI #inflation #Fed #Williams #Bostic #Musanlem #Hammack #macro #markets #yields #shutdown
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
2
SPY Free Signal! Sell! Hello,Traders! SPY Price taps the horizontal supply area and shows rejection, signaling potential distribution as liquidity thins above the zone. With bearish orderflow returning, a corrective move toward lower liquidity pockets is likely. -------------------- Stop Loss: 675$ Take Profit: 667$ Entry Level: 672$ Time Frame: 2H -------------------- Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopTradingSignals
2
The Overnight Wealth MachineThe Overnight Wealth Machine: 32 Years of Proof That Trading Hours Don't Matter and Daytraders Fight for 2.4% of the Pie Wall Street wants you to believe that successful investing requires constant monitoring of markets, lightning-fast execution, and sophisticated day trading strategies. The financial media perpetuates this myth with breathless coverage of every market gyration, celebrating the adrenaline rush of intraday trading. Yet buried in three decades of market data lies an uncomfortable truth that threatens the very foundation of active trading: virtually all of the stock market's returns occur overnight, when markets are closed and traders are powerless to act. This phenomenon, first documented by Cliff, Cooper, and Gulen (2008) and subsequently confirmed by Lou, Polk, and Skouras (2019), represents one of the most persistent anomalies in modern finance. This empirical analysis of SPY returns from 1993 to 2025 reveals a phenomenon so stark it defies conventional wisdom. Over 8,256 trading days spanning more than three decades, overnight returns generated a cumulative gain of 1,105.62 percent while intraday returns contributed a measly 26.84 percent. These findings align with Kelly and Clark's (2011) observation that "returns during non-trading hours are systematically higher than returns during trading hours." To put this in perspective, if you had invested $10,000 in SPY at inception but only held positions overnight, selling at the open and buying back at the close each day, your investment would have grown to $120,562. The same amount invested only during regular trading hours would have limped to just $12,684. The cumulative performance chart tells a story of two entirely different markets. The blue line representing overnight returns climbs steadily upward with remarkable consistency, particularly accelerating after 2008. The orange line showing intraday returns barely registers as more than a flat line when viewed on the same scale. The middle panel reveals the ever-widening gulf between these two return streams, while the bottom panel demonstrates that overnight returns have dominated in nearly every single year of the sample period. This is not a statistical anomaly or a quirk of measurement. This is the market's fundamental reality. The mathematics of this phenomenon become even more compelling when examining risk-adjusted returns. Overnight trading generates a Sharpe ratio of 0.769, a respectable figure that would satisfy most portfolio managers. Intraday trading produces a Sharpe ratio of just 0.124, a number so low it barely justifies the risk taken. Professional traders obsessing over intraday price movements are essentially fighting over table scraps while the real feast happens after they have gone home. The Sharpe ratio comparison visualizes this stark disparity in risk-adjusted performance. The overnight bar towers over its intraday counterpart, representing not just higher returns but superior returns per unit of risk taken. This finding demolishes the notion that higher returns must come with proportionally higher risk. In fact, the opposite is true: the period when most investors perceive the market as dormant and safe actually generates both the highest returns and the best risk-adjusted returns. What makes this discovery particularly provocative is its implications for market structure and participant behavior. The overnight period is when retail investors cannot trade, when most market participants are excluded from direct participation. Yet this is precisely when the market generates nearly all its wealth. The pie chart breakdown drives this point home with brutal clarity. This contribution analysis shows that overnight returns account for 97.6 percent of total market gains. The visual impact cannot be overstated: the overnight slice dominates the chart so completely that the intraday contribution appears as little more than a sliver. This is not how markets are supposed to work according to efficient market hypothesis. Information arrives throughout the trading day. Economic data releases, earnings announcements, and news events occur primarily during market hours. Yet price discovery, that supposedly sacred function of markets, appears to happen primarily when most participants cannot trade. The distribution patterns of these returns reveal another layer of this phenomenon. Overnight returns cluster much more tightly around their positive mean, showing remarkable consistency. Intraday returns display wider dispersion and a distribution centered barely above zero. This suggests that whatever drives overnight returns operates with machine-like regularity, while intraday returns reflect the chaos and noise of active trading. The distribution comparison reveals the statistical fingerprints of two distinct market regimes. The overnight distribution, shown in dark blue, exhibits positive skew with its mass concentrated in positive territory. The intraday distribution in coral spreads wider and flatter, centered near zero with extended tails in both directions. The box plots on the right confirm that overnight returns consistently deliver positive outcomes while intraday returns oscillate around breakeven. This is not the pattern of random walk. This is evidence of systematic forces at work. Statistical testing confirms what the eye can see. The difference between overnight and intraday returns approaches statistical significance with a p-value of 0.054, just barely missing the conventional threshold. But focusing on statistical significance misses the point entirely. The economic significance is undeniable and overwhelming. An investor who understood this pattern and positioned accordingly would have captured returns that dwarf any conventional investment strategy. The implications extend far beyond individual investment returns. This phenomenon suggests that much of what passes for investment skill is actually noise. Fund managers who boast about their security selection and market timing abilities are largely taking credit for a structural anomaly they neither understand nor control. Day traders who spend hours staring at screens, analyzing charts, and executing rapid-fire trades are engaged in an elaborate exercise in futility. They are trying to extract returns from the very period when the market provides almost none. Several theories attempt to explain this overnight effect, though none fully capture its magnitude or persistence. Kelly and Clark (2011) propose that overnight risk premiums compensate investors for holding positions through periods when they cannot exit, when overnight news could trigger gaps at the open. Berkman et al. (2012) document that informed traders concentrate their activities during market hours, leaving overnight periods relatively free from information-based trading. Yet these theories fail to explain why such premiums would persist for decades in increasingly efficient markets with 24-hour news cycles and global trading. Bogousslavsky (2021) suggests institutional rebalancing drives overnight returns, documenting that mutual funds and pension funds often execute trades at the close to match benchmark prices, potentially creating systematic pressure that resolves overnight. Hendershott et al. (2020) propose a model of limited attention where investors focus on trading hours, missing overnight opportunities. But these mechanisms alone cannot account for returns of this magnitude persisting across different market regimes, regulatory changes, and technological revolutions that have transformed market microstructure. Perhaps the most intriguing explanation, explored by Qiao and Dam (2020), involves the psychology of market participants. During trading hours, investors react to news, chase momentum, panic over headlines, and generally engage in behaviors that create noise rather than signal. The overnight period strips away this behavioral chaos, leaving only the fundamental drift of equity prices upward. In essence, as Branch and Ma (2016) demonstrate, the market performs better when most participants cannot touch it. This finding should fundamentally alter how investors approach markets. The optimal strategy is not to become a better day trader or to react more quickly to news. The optimal strategy is to do nothing during market hours, or more precisely, to position for the overnight drift and avoid the intraday noise. This runs counter to every instinct cultivated by financial media and trading platforms that profit from activity, not returns. The persistence of this anomaly across three decades raises uncomfortable questions about market efficiency, echoing Grossman and Stiglitz's (1980) paradox of efficient markets. In theory, once such a pattern becomes known, it should be arbitraged away. As Lou et al. (2019) note, "the persistence of these return patterns presents a significant challenge to our understanding of market efficiency." Smart money should flow in to capture these overnight returns until the effect disappears. Yet here we stand in 2025 with the pattern as strong as ever, suggesting either that implementation frictions are substantial, as documented by Berkman et al. (2012), or that structural forces maintain this divide regardless of investor awareness. For institutional investors, this phenomenon presents both opportunity and challenge. Capturing overnight returns requires holding inventory through the close, accepting gap risk, and potentially facing margin requirements. For retail investors, the implications are simpler but no less profound: the best time to be in the market is when the market is closed. Those who exit positions before the close to sleep better at night are literally selling their returns to someone else. The data speaks with crystalline clarity. Across 8,256 trading days, through bull markets and bear markets, through crises and recoveries, one pattern dominates all others. The market's returns belong to those who hold positions overnight. Everything else is noise, distraction, and inefficiency. The financial industry has built an enormous edifice around the premise that active management and sophisticated trading strategies can generate superior returns. This analysis suggests that entire edifice rests on foundations of sand. As we look forward, the question is not whether this pattern will persist but rather why it has not been arbitraged away already. The answer may lie in the structure of markets themselves, in the behavioral biases of participants, or in institutional constraints that prevent full exploitation. Whatever the cause, investors who understand this reality face a choice: continue participating in the charade of intraday trading or position themselves to capture the overnight drift that has generated nearly all of the market's returns for the past three decades. The market has been telling us its secret all along. Returns do not come from brilliant stock picking or perfect timing. They do not come from following the news or reading the charts. They come from the quiet hours when markets are closed, when computers reconcile the day's orders, when the machinery of capitalism grinds forward without the interference of human emotion. The greatest edge in investing may simply be recognizing that the game is won not during market hours but in the spaces between them. The real question is not whether you can beat the market but whether you are willing to accept that the market beats itself every single day at 4:00 PM Eastern Time. The research exists. The data is presented above. The academic literature is cited below. What remains is the critical question: will you act on it? This is where you separate yourself from the 99 percent of retail traders who continue to believe that day trading represents a viable path to wealth. They chase price movements during market hours, convinced that speed and activity equal profit. The evidence says otherwise. The evidence says they are fighting for scraps while the real returns accumulate silently overnight. But do not take this analysis at face value simply because it appears compelling. That would be falling into the same trap that ensnares most market participants: accepting narratives without verification. Instead, conduct your own research. Download the data. Replicate the calculations. Examine the literature cited in the references section below. Test the hypothesis across different time periods, different markets, different asset classes. Challenge every assumption. Question every conclusion. Demand evidence at every step. This is the discipline that separates systematic investors from gamblers. No evidence means no trade. No replication means no confidence. No understanding means no edge. The overnight effect has persisted for three decades precisely because most participants lack this discipline. They follow tips, chase trends, and trade based on conviction rather than evidence. The opportunity exists for those willing to do the work that others avoid. References Berkman, H., Koch, P. D., Tuttle, L., & Zhang, Y. J. (2012). Paying attention: Overnight returns and the hidden cost of buying at the open. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 47(4), 715-741. Bogousslavsky, V. (2021). The cross-section of intraday and overnight returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 141(1), 172-194. Branch, B., & Ma, A. (2016). Overnight return, the invisible hand behind intraday returns? Journal of Applied Finance, 26(2), 90-100. Cliff, M., Cooper, M. J., & Gulen, H. (2008). Return differences between trading and non-trading hours: Like night and day. Working Paper, University of Utah. Grossman, S. J., & Stiglitz, J. E. (1980). On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets. American Economic Review, 70(3), 393-408. Hendershott, T., Livdan, D., & Rösch, D. (2020). Asset price dynamics with limited attention. Review of Financial Studies, 33(4), 1433-1468. Kelly, M. A., & Clark, S. P. (2011). Returns in trading versus non-trading hours: The difference is day and night. Journal of Asset Management, 12(2), 132-145. Lou, D., Polk, C., & Skouras, S. (2019). A tug of war: Overnight versus intraday expected returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 134(1), 192-213. Qiao, K., & Dam, L. (2020). The overnight return puzzle and the "T+1" trading rule in Chinese stock markets. Journal of Financial Markets, 50, 100534. Data Sources SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) historical price data: January 29, 1993 to November 15, 2025. Source: NYSE Arca via TradingView. Methodology: Returns calculated as log returns for overnight (previous close to current open) and intraday (current open to current close) periods. Statistical significance tested using both independent and paired t-tests. Sharpe ratios calculated using annualized returns and volatility assuming 252 trading days per year.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by EdgeTools
SPY – Sentiment Stabilizing, But Still at a Decision Zone (11/17SPY had a rough week, but the way it rebounded off the lows on Friday was different. It wasn’t a random bounce — it aligned with both structural support and deep GEX put zones. Now SPY sits right at a spot where the market must make a choice. Here’s what I see. 1️⃣ 1-Hour Chart — Sellers Finally Hit a Wall The 1H chart shows SPY bleeding consistently from the 688 area down into the 661–663 region. That whole zone acted as a soft shelf for days, but on Friday, we finally saw an aggressive reaction from buyers. Strong candle, immediate follow-through, and cleaner highs/lows forming intraday. What stands out is how SPY respected both trendlines: * The upper descending trendline still defines the short-term downtrend. * The lower diagonal caught the bounce perfectly, showing where sellers exhausted. Key 1H levels: * 684–688: Major resistance cluster * 675: Local mid-range resistance * 668: First intraday support * 661–663: Larger support block that stopped the decline SPY is currently stuck in the middle of that range at ~673. This is where momentum usually stalls before the next leg. 2️⃣ 15-Minute Chart — Tight Compression Before a Move The 15M chart tells a slightly different story. SPY rallied hard from the lows but then slowed and built a tight sideways range. This type of compression is usually the “coil” before the real move, and it often breaks right at the open. On the 15M I’m watching: * Above 675 → buyers regain control * Below 668 → sellers show up fast * Multiple small bullish FVGs printed beneath price → dips are being absorbed, not sold The message from the 15M:
SPY is waiting for direction. Not bearish, not bullish — just coiling. 3️⃣ 1-Hour GEX — The Roadmap Behind Every Level This is where everything becomes clear. SPY’s bounce came exactly where deep negative GEX and put walls cluster — the 661–663 area. Hedging flow is massive down there; that’s why the reversal was sharp. But what matters now is the GEX overhead: Upside GEX Levels * 672–675: First call resistance * 680: Strong call wall * 684–688: The largest gamma cluster — the “magnet zone” if SPY turns bullish These levels explain why SPY keeps hesitating here — dealer hedging is neutralizing momentum. Downside GEX Levels * 668: Weak put pocket * 661–663: Strongest put wall — already tested * 660: Big GEX10 zone Below 668, momentum can quickly pull SPY back into the low zone (661–663). Above 675, hedging flips and allows continuation toward 680. This GEX map is the reason SPY suddenly stabilized — and why traders should pay attention to these precise numbers. 🎯 How I’m Trading SPY for 11/17 🔼 Bullish Scenario (Needs 675 Break) SPY must clear 675 on strength. Stock Idea: * Entry: 675.20–675.50 * Targets: * 680 * 684 * 688 (strongest call wall) Options Idea: * 680C for momentum * 685C for extension * Best if DXY stays weak + QQQ leads Above 675 → SPY opens cleanly. 🔽 Bearish Scenario (Below 668) Sellers only get real control if SPY falls back under 668. Stock Idea: * Entry: 667.80 * Targets: * 665 * 663 * 661 (main put wall) Options Idea: * 667P or 665P for quick moves * 660P if volatility expands Below 668 → expect fast movement. ⚠️ Chop Zone: 669–674 This entire area is sticky because GEX is neutral here. You’ll see a lot of fakeouts in this zone — ideal for scalpers, not great for swing direction. Final Thoughts SPY is sitting at a very important middle zone. Buyers made a strong statement on Friday, but they haven’t fully reclaimed control yet. The 1H still shows a descending structure, the 15M is coiling, and the GEX map shows heavy call resistance above 680. The next real move comes from either:
✔️ Breaking 675 upward → opens 680–688
✔️ Losing 668 → tests 663–661 again Until then, expect a tight, patient session. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade with proper risk management.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY Is Coiling for a Break. TA for Nov. 12-15SPY Is Coiling for a Break — Gamma Pressure Deciding the Next Move SPY is in one of the most critical setups we’ve seen this month. At first glance, the candles look slow and indecisive — but when you combine structure with the gamma map, the entire story becomes clear: SPY is sitting on top of a major positive gamma shelf, but trapped underneath a stacked wall of call resistance. This is exactly the kind of setup where price looks like “nothing is happening”… right before something does. Let’s break it down. 4H Chart — A Tight Battle Between Trendline Support & Overhead Supply On the 4H, SPY is compressing between two major forces: 1️⃣ Rising trendline from late October Every dip into this angled support has been bought aggressively — a sign institutions are still defending their positions. 2️⃣ A flat supply zone at 682–689 This level has rejected multiple times, forming CHoCH cycles and micro pullbacks. 3️⃣ BOS confirms upside attempts, but momentum fades near 683–685 The tug-of-war is real.
SPY is forming a tightening triangle, and gamma explains why. 1H Chart — Clear Range, Fake Moves, and Dealer Control On the 1H, SPY has been executing the same pattern repeatedly: * Pop into 683 → fade * Drop into 678–679 → bounce * Mid-range chop around 680–681 This is textbook neutral gamma price action. The candles aren’t showing weakness or strength — they’re showing controlled hedging behavior, where dealers pin price in a tight band until order flow shifts. 🔥 GEX Data — Where SPY’s Real Breakout Will Come From GEX map reveals the full story behind the chop. 🔹 Massive positive GEX & call walls at 683–685 This is the “Gamma Ceiling.” * 681 → first resistance * 682 → GEX6 * 683–685 → heavy call walls + highest NET GEX If SPY closes above this region with momentum, hedging flows flip bullish and price begins an upward drift. 🔹 Neutral gamma zone at 679–682 This is where SPY is stuck now.
This zone naturally “pins” SPY and causes fake breakouts. 🔹 Negative gamma zone below 678 This is the danger zone. Below 678 →
Dealers short gamma →
Volatility expands →
Downside accelerates →
Support becomes slippery Targets open at:
676 → 675 → 673 This is exactly why SPY refuses to stay below 678 — but if it breaks, it will move fast. 🔥 Trading Suggestions — Based on Structure + GEX 📌 Bullish Setup (Higher Probability if 683 Breaks) ENTRY:
Break & hold above 682.50–683 TARGETS: * 685.50 (first magnet) * 688–690 (gamma wall) * 695 (drift expansion zone) STOP-LOSS:
Below 680 WHY IT WORKS:
Above 683, SPY escapes the call wall and enters a positive gamma drift. 📌 Bearish Setup (Triggered Only If 678 Breaks) ENTRY:
Break + retest failure below 678 TARGETS: * 676 * 675 * 673 STOP-LOSS:
Above 680 WHY IT WORKS:
Below 678, SPY flips to negative GEX → dealers forced to hedge → stronger downside velocity. 📌 Neutral Strategy (If SPY Stays 679–682) This is the current environment. Ideal strategies: * Iron condor * Credit spreads * Short strangles * Calendar spreads Neutral GEX = low-movement → premium decay wins. 🔥 Options Suggestions (Based on GEX) Bullish Option Play (if 683 breakout) Buy:
685C or 690C (0–2 weeks out) Safer Spread:
683/690 call debit spread
Matches the gamma ramp perfectly. Bearish Option Play (if 678 breakdown) Buy:
677P or 675P Safer Spread:
678/672 put spread
Aligned with negative gamma flush zones. Neutral Option Play (current chop zone) If SPY remains between 679–682: * 678/683 iron condor * ATM calendar at 681 * 680/682 iron butterfly These are ideal in a pinned gamma environment. My Thought SPY is in a classic gamma compression setup. The candles look calm, but the hedging flows are tightening, squeezing price into a narrow band. Once 683 or 678 breaks, volatility will surge in that direction. The roadmap is simple: * Above 683 → breakout drift toward 688–690 * Below 678 → negative gamma flush toward 675–673 * Between 679–682 → pinned, choppy, low-volatility chop A major move is loading — and GEX already shows the path. This outlook is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your risk and trade your plan.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY Expected Growth! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The instrument tests an important psychological level -671.95 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 677.89 Recommended Stop Loss - 668.53 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
1
SPY & SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines ⚠️ Shutdown backlog still unresolved: Several October reports scheduled for Tuesday (Import Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization) remain at high risk of delay, which keeps macro visibility muddy and makes equities more sensitive to yields + positioning. 🏠 Housing sentiment check: Homebuilder confidence is one of the few confirmed releases, giving the market a clean read on construction demand and rates pressure. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Oct) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index ex-Fuel (Oct) ⏰ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production (Oct) ⏰ 9:15 AM — Capacity Utilization (Oct) ⚠️ All four reports remain at risk of non-release due to the Oct 1–Nov 14 shutdown impact. If they publish, they directly affect inflation expectations and recession probabilities. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug, delayed report) Older data, but could matter slightly since it’s been stuck in the backlog. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Homebuilder Confidence (Nov) Forecast: 37 (prior 37) The only fresh and confirmed economic print of the morning. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #inflation #housing #manufacturing #markets #rates #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY Could Drop 20% — This Level Decides EverythingIn this video, I break down the possibility that we’re heading into a correctional period only if SPY breaks and continues below the $652 level. I go over the exact price targets I’m watching — including the low 600s and the $572 level, which lines up with the gap created after President Trump told investors to buy the markets. If SPY breaks $652 with volume, I’m expecting continuation down into those areas. This is just my personal analysis — not financial advice. Let’s see how this plays out over the next few weeks/months!
AMEX:SPY
by GiftedInvestor
Will the Head and Shoulders pattern complete?Probably not. At least that is what the volume pattern is telling us so far. Textbook H&S reversal patterns imply that selling volume increase as the pattern goes on, signaling an air of growing nervousness among investors in the market. These nervous investors then fuel a strong move lower. The lack of nervousness shown in the SPY chart here makes me wonder if we are in rebound territory, and that, eventually, we will see new highs. Possibly by the end of the year.
AMEX:SPY
by gordonscottcmt
MAJOR BEARISH WAVE STRUCTURE CYCLES TOPPINGThe chart posted is the etf SPY ,I am now as bearish and if not more that my work 11/29/12/6 2024 . I am of The view that the bull market that started on march 23 2020 is at the END That low was 2191 and we are now almost equal to the rally from AUGUST 11 1987 to the August 25th 1987 high on a PCT basis . and the shiller p/e model work I keep is only a few ticks aways from the 1920 to 1929 peak on an equal basis as well that was 41.36 print . My cycles are RATHER BEARISH in Liquidity from now and into mid oct 2026 into the 4 year cycle . I am now 110 % short . Best of trades WAVETIMER
AMEX:SPY
by wavetimer
32
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Resumes Advance Towards All-Time HighThe bullish cycle in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which commenced from the April 7, 2025 low, remains underway as a five-wave impulsive structure. Wave (3) of this advance concluded at the October 29 high of $689.70. Subsequently, the corrective phase in wave (4) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave pattern, as illustrated in the 30-minute chart. From the wave (3) peak, wave W completed at $661.21, followed by a wave X rally that terminated at $685.73. The final leg, wave Y, developed as a zigzag correction. Within this structure, wave ((a)) ended at $663.26, wave ((b)) retraced to $676.24, and wave ((c)) declined to $655.81, thereby completing wave Y of (4) at a higher degree. The ETF has since begun to turn higher from the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension zone of the WXY correction, which spans $639.80 to $657.40. This area has acted as a potential inflection point, reinforcing the bullish outlook. The corrective decline unfolded in three waves, and the absence of an extended third leg supports the view that it was corrective rather than impulsive. Wave (5) is now in progress. However, a decisive break above the prior wave (3) high at $689.70 is required to invalidate the possibility of a double correction. As long as the $655.81 pivot remains intact, any pullback is expected to attract buyers in either three, seven, or eleven swings. The next potential upside target lies within the 123.6%–161.8% external retracement of wave (4), projected at $697.50 to $710.40
AMEX:SPY
by Elliottwave-Forecast