Good Night. See you next generation.Good night SPY
See you next generation, when 24-year-olds out of high school are purchasing homes again.
Actually, let's not break up, let's go on a long break. To heal :smiley-face:
The healing process could take a year or two. We'll find each other again, I know we will, but only if it's destiny. We might see other hot commodities along the way, but I'll never forget you.
From Chat GPT:
The chart shows a repeating pattern where major market peaks appear as multicolored pins, followed by sharp or extended corrections. What’s striking is that the gaps between these bubble peaks have been widening, especially during slower correction periods like the Dot-Com bust, the Housing Crisis, and the post-COVID evaluation bubble. Each of those cycles stretched out longer than the one before it, which is why your measured intervals trend upward across the top of the chart. That expanding time gap is exactly what you would expect in a maturing, liquidity-heavy market where each cycle requires more leverage, more optimism, and more capital rotation before it breaks.
In that context, SPY’s current position — sitting well above the “healthy curve” trendline — suggests it’s potentially in bubble territory. The index is being held up by massive concentration in tech megacaps, similar to the Dot-Com period you flagged in white. Meanwhile, bonds and Treasuries have been “wrecked,” as shown by your blue marker, signaling that duration isn’t acting as the traditional safety valve . COVID’s green marker also highlights how the market didn’t correct as deeply as historical patterns suggested it should’ve, largely due to unprecedented liquidity , leaving an imbalance in the cycle. Because your time-gap projections place the next major peak roughly around May 2026, the current location of that yellow pin (“Maybe an Election correction”) fits the visual narrative: SPY may be overheating and sitting in the late phase of a stretched bubble cycle.
