Eurobank Ergasias Services & Holdings SA Trade Ideas — FWB:EFGD

Eurobank Holdings: Technically Weak with Pressure on Stock Price Eurobank Holdings' stock presents a negative technical picture as it hovers near recent lows, showing signs of weakening. The stock price stands at €2.496, recording a marginal decline (-0.28%), while technical data indicates limited chances of recovery. Technical Analysis Overview Moving Averages (EMA 20/50/100/200) suggest a stabilizing trend with downward prospects. EMA 20 is at €2.492, EMA 50 at €2.500, and EMA 100 at €2.500, forming a strong resistance level that prevents upward movement. EMA 200 at €2.491 is being heavily tested as a support level. Technical Indicators: MACD is negative (-0.0058), confirming weak stock momentum. RSI at 47.47 indicates neutrality, with a lack of strength to surpass the critical 50-level. Fibonacci Levels & Resistance-Support Points: The stock fails to hold above the 0.236 Fibonacci level (€2.496), with the next support at €2.470. The Pivot Point resistance (€2.512) has been tested but not successfully surpassed. Volume Analysis: Trading volume stands at 14.12 million shares, with increased selling pressure on downward moves, reflecting investor caution. If selling pressure persists, a potential drop to S1 (€2.452) cannot be ruled out. Key Technical Weaknesses Price Weakness & Lack of Recovery Potential: The stock price is currently at €2.492, down -0.20%. Despite previous recovery attempts, it has failed to sustain higher levels and now moves near its daily lows. Moving Averages Indicate Downward Bias: EMA 20 (€2.492) closely aligns with the current price, signaling weak short-term bullish momentum. EMA 50 and EMA 100 (€2.500) act as resistance, indicating potential failure to move higher. EMA 200 (€2.491) provides temporary support, but the price seems likely to break below it. MACD Shows Negative Momentum: MACD at -0.0058, below its signal (-0.0082), suggests continued downward pressure. The positive histogram is minimal (0.0024), reflecting weak buying interest. RSI Indicates Weak Upward Momentum: RSI at 47.47, below the neutral 50-level, shows sellers still dominate. The RSI-based MA (39.14) suggests the stock was recently in oversold territory but lacks strong upside movement. Fibonacci & Key Support-Resistance Levels: The stock failed to maintain the 0.236 Fibonacci level (€2.496), showing an inability to recover. Key support at €2.470, with a possible decline to lower levels if selling pressure persists. Pivot Point resistance at €2.512 remains challenging to break. Volume Confirms Selling Pressure: Trading volume of 14.12M suggests increased selling on downward movements, indicating that sellers are in control. Bearish Technical Outlook Eurobank Holdings' technical outlook remains weak, with the price moving below significant resistance levels and indicators suggesting limited upside potential. The stock's inability to break above €2.500 and persistent pressure below moving averages signal a potential continuation of the downward trend, especially if it breaks below €2.470.

End of the Sharp Decline? A Signal for a Eurobank Rebound The Eurobank Holdings stock appears to have reached critical support levels, suggesting that the sharp decline of recent sessions may be nearing its end. With the price approaching the EMA 100 & 200 (2.394 and 2.288, respectively), there is an increased likelihood of a technical rebound as selling pressure may be subsiding at these levels. The RSI (40.21) indicates that the stock is close to oversold territory, which has historically led to upward movements. Meanwhile, the MACD, although still in negative territory, shows signs of stabilization, suggesting that the downward momentum may be weakening. If the stock manages to hold above the 2.394 level, an immediate rebound toward resistance at 2.459 – 2.483 is the most probable scenario. However, if these levels are broken downward, there is a risk of testing the 2.288 support zone. The next trading session will be crucial, as a strong buying reaction could signal the end of the correction and put the stock back on an upward trajectory.

Eurobank: Risks from Interest Rate Dependence Eurobank: Risks from Interest Rate Dependence – Losing Ground to Competitors – (Morgan Stanley Analysis) Eurobank, although still one of the strongest Greek banks, is facing challenges that could impact its growth trajectory and attractiveness to investors. According to the latest Morgan Stanley report, the bank has been downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight, reflecting concerns about its prospects compared to its competitors in the Greek banking sector. Downgrade and Limited Upside Potential Eurobank, which was previously considered one of the most robust Greek banks, has lost its privileged position as analysts have downgraded its stock. The new price target set by Morgan Stanley is €3.18, slightly up from €2.77, but with a lower profit potential compared to other Greek banks such as Piraeus and Alpha Bank, which maintain higher upside potential. This development indicates that, despite its positive financial results, Eurobank does not offer the same investment appeal as its competitors. Lower Return on Equity One of the key issues affecting Eurobank’s investment position is its performance relative to its competitors. Its Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) is estimated at 15.4% for 2025 and 14.8% for 2026, slightly lower than National Bank of Greece (15.1%) and Piraeus Bank (13.7%). While these numbers are strong in absolute terms, they highlight that Eurobank does not have the same profit growth potential as other Greek banks. Limited Loan Growth and Lower Net Interest Income Eurobank is experiencing moderate loan growth, with an estimated increase of 4.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, compared to 7.5%-8% for Piraeus Bank. This means that Eurobank may not benefit as much from Greece’s economic recovery and rising investment activity in the country. Additionally, its Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to reach €2.5 billion in 2025, marking only a small increase, which limits the bank’s ability to achieve higher profitability. Interest Rate Risks and Capital Reserves Another concern for Eurobank is its sensitivity to interest rate cuts. The Greek banking market is highly dependent on ECB interest rates, and a potential reduction in these rates could negatively impact the bank’s interest income. Furthermore, although its capital position is adequate, it is not as strong as its competitors. Its CET1 ratio is expected to be 16.8% in 2026, lower than National Bank of Greece (17.8%). Although Eurobank remains one of the top Greek banks, it faces significant challenges that limit its growth potential. The downgrade of its stock, lower growth dynamics, and sensitivity to interest rate changes make it a less attractive investment choice compared to Piraeus and Alpha Bank. If the bank fails to achieve higher loan growth and improve its profitability, it may lose ground to its competitors, limiting its stock’s upside potential.

Long Eurobank Approaching tomorrow's earnings report Eurobank has lost 25% in the last month. An earnings miss has been priced in and prior profits taken. Price is supported by a daily DeMark downside exhaustion, DeMark Trend Setup Support Line, and DeMark Risk Line. Additionally a diagonal trend line, which has been in play since 2016 and briefly broken at the end of 2017 but subsequently reconfirmed provides additional support. RSI is turning oversold (29) Stoch & MACD look ready for an upside move. FWB:EFGD is part of the ASE, Greece's slowly recovering stock Market which has formed a double bottom (2013,2016) and looks like it may be slowly recovering. Entry: 0,73€ or when Stoch and Stoch RSI turn positive Stop Loss 0,65€ Target: 1,05€ Time Horizon : 3Months

Eurobank Ergasias Services & Holdings SA

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