Ryanair: Focus on Major Cities and Pressure on AenaBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Ryanair’s withdrawal from regional airports in Spain once again exposes their dependence on the Irish carrier. The airline, which had already significantly reduced its offering in Jerez, Valladolid, and Vigo, now threatens to cut another one million seats next winter if Aena does not reconsider its plan to raise airport fees by 6.5% in 2026. During 2025, the airline has already canceled around 800,000 seats on regional routes, redirecting capacity toward larger cities such as Madrid, Málaga, or Alicante, where its capacity increased by 3% over the summer.
According to Aena data, the reduction has hit Valladolid (-59.5% passengers until July) and Santiago (-13.3%) the hardest, while airports such as Vigo (+10.2%) and Zaragoza (+2.9%) have managed to partially offset the loss. Competitors, however, have not managed to fill the gap. Vueling will only resume the Barcelona–Valladolid route in October, while Volotea and Air Nostrum have not yet taken over any canceled routes. Meanwhile, UK-based Jet2.com has announced it will begin operating Jerez–London starting in 2026.
Among the routes canceled at mid-sized Spanish airports are the following:
Jerez – Barcelona
Jerez – Santiago de Compostela
Valladolid – Santiago de Compostela
Valladolid – Barcelona
Valladolid – London Stansted
Vigo – Barcelona
Zaragoza – Vienna
Zaragoza – Lisbon
Asturias – London Stansted
Santander – Alicante
Fundamental Analysis
Results confirm that Ryanair remains solid in Spain despite its regional pullback. In the first half of 2025, it carried 32.64 million passengers—two million more than in the same period the previous year—consolidating its position as Spain’s leading airline. Its strategy is clearly aimed at maximizing profitability in high-volume hubs by reallocating capacity from less efficient routes.
The conflict with Aena is key: Ryanair argues that the network model and fee increases make its operations more expensive compared to other European markets. If these are not reviewed, the adjustment could extend to more mid-sized airports, further threatening regional connectivity in Spain.
Technical Analysis (Ryanair Holdings – Ticker AT: RYA.IE)
Ryanair shares maintain an underlying bullish bias in 2025, supported by air traffic recovery and strong cash generation. The stock broke out of its consolidation range between €21.98 and €24.82 at the end of July, reaching an annual high of €27.01. However, after that surge, it corrected sharply to €25.12, a level where it has found support once again.
The most relevant Point of Control (POC) sits at €23.52, coinciding with the midpoint of the previous consolidation range. Technically, the price has lost support from the 50-day moving average but remains above the 100-day average, reinforcing a scenario of consolidation with a slightly bearish tilt. Indicators confirm this picture: the RSI stands at 43.09%, in slight oversold territory, while the MACD still reflects bearish corrective pressure.
In the short term, a clear breakout above €26 would enable a new upward leg, potentially retesting recent highs at €27.01. Conversely, a breakdown of supports could open the door to pullbacks toward €23.52—the midpoint of the prior consolidation range—or even the lower band at €21.98.
The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator points to a rise in risk aversion (risk-off), though still within neutral territory. This suggests that macro sentiment will be decisive: while market pressure persists, the stock may remain in consolidation. If risk appetite improves, Ryanair could once again have room to test its yearly highs.
Market Sentiment Impact (Rise in Risk-off)
The airline sector, due to its cyclical nature, is particularly sensitive to shifts in investor risk appetite. In a risk-off environment—shaped by geopolitical tensions, economic slowdown, or higher oil prices—airline stocks typically face selling pressure, with capital flowing instead into safe-haven assets such as Treasuries, the Swiss franc, or gold.
Although Ryanair benefits from its competitive low-cost model and leadership position in Spain, it remains exposed to macroeconomic volatility and potential demand drops in risk-off scenarios. This duality makes the company an attractive play during risk-on phases but vulnerable during periods of global uncertainty.
Ryanair’s regional retreat is more of a strategic maneuver than a structural setback. The company is strengthening its presence in major airports and continues to show strong passenger growth. Pressure on Aena and the proposed fee hikes will set the tone for the coming months, while on the stock market the share remains in a key range, with investors closely watching the outcome of this standoff with Spain’s airport operator.
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