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Naspers: Tencent AI Proxy Amid #AI and South Africa BondsNaspers: Undervalued Tencent AI Proxy Amid #AI and South Africa Bond Stability Trends? $80 Target in Sight?
Naspers (NPSNY) ADRs are trading at $67.69 today, up 0.5% amid positive South African market sentiment following the Treasury's smooth $2 billion Eurobond redemption and hints at new issuances to replenish reserves. This fiscal resilience has spurred foreign inflows into SA bonds, with R24.8 billion net buys recently, boosting local equities like Naspers—which has rallied 34% YTD on Tencent's AI-driven rebound.
As #AI trends explode with 17K mentions on X (fueled by AI video generators and drug discovery hype), and #technology buzz hits 46K amid global chip and ad innovations, Naspers' indirect 24% stake in Tencent (via Prosus) positions it as an undervalued gateway to Chinese AI growth in gaming and cloud. But with a forward P/E of 15x, is NPSNY the discounted multi-bagger ready for a push to $80, or will China risks weigh it down? Let's dissect the fundamentals, SWOT, technicals, and setups for September 17, 2025.
Fundamental Analysis
Naspers' value is deeply tied to its Prosus subsidiary, which holds a 24.3% stake in Tencent—valued at ~$120B against Naspers' $52B market cap, implying a 50%+ discount on sum-of-parts analysis. FY2025 results showed 21% Ecommerce revenue growth to $7B and an 18x EBIT improvement, with analysts forecasting 2025 EPS of $4.50 (up 25% YoY) amid Tencent's AI tools launch. With #AI going viral, Naspers' exposure to Tencent's programming AI and cloud positions it perfectly, undervalued at 18% below fair value per DCF amid SA's bond stability signaling economic strength. However, regulatory risks in China loom if crackdowns intensify.
- **Positive:**
- Tencent stake undervalues Naspers by 50%+; $12.8B buybacks enhance shareholder value amid #technology hype and AI investments.
- SA Eurobond redemption boosts foreign inflows (R41.3B YTD), supporting JSE rally and Naspers' 135% 3-year returns.
- Broader #AI trends (e.g., Tencent's AI tool launch) project 20%+ CAGR for holdings.
- **Negative:**
- China exposure risks from geopolitics, clashing with #AI optimism if Tencent growth slows.
- Upcoming 5-for-1 split (Oct 6) could add volatility if retail hype fades post-event.
SWOT Analysis
**Strengths:** Massive discount to Tencent holdings (50%+), amplified by #AI relevance in gaming/cloud; strong Ecommerce profitability with 18x EBIT jump.
**Weaknesses:** Heavy reliance on China assets (80%+ value); cyclical Ecommerce exposure in a #technology-shifting market.
**Opportunities:** SA bond stability attracts inflows, unlocking value; #AI boom via Tencent could narrow discount to 30%, undervalued at 15x P/E amid 25% EPS growth.
**Threats:** Regulatory changes in China eroding Tencent value; intense competition from global tech amid viral #AI discussions on X.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, NPSNY is in a strong uptrend, forming a bull flag after breaking $65 resistance, with volume spiking on SA bond news and mirroring #AI volatility surges. The weekly confirms higher highs from 2023 lows, now accelerating. Current price: $67.69, with VWAP at $67 as intraday pivot.
Key indicators:
- **RSI (14-day):** At 65, bullish territory—room for upside amid #technology surges. 📈
- **MACD:** Positive crossover with expanding histogram, indicating momentum build. ⚠️
- **Moving Averages:** Price above 21-day EMA ($64) and 50-day SMA ($62), golden cross intact.
Support/Resistance: Key support at $65 (recent breakout), resistance at $70 (psychological) and $80 (analyst target). Patterns/Momentum: Flag breakout targets $75; fueled by #AI momentum. 🟢 Bullish signals: Volume on inflows. 🔴 Bearish risks: Overextension if China news hits.
Scenarios and Risk Management
- **Bullish Scenario:** Break above $70 on Tencent AI updates or SA inflows targets $75 short-term, then $80 by year-end; buy pullbacks to $65, especially if #AI goes mainstream.
- **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below $65 eyes $60 (200-day EMA); watch for regulatory cross amid #technology fade.
- **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound $65–$70 if data mixed and #AI cools.
Risk Tips: Use stops at $64. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify to avoid correlation traps with #AI-linked assets like TCEHY.
Conclusion/Outlook
Overall, a bullish bias if NPSNY holds $65, supercharged by today's #AI and #technology trends plus SA's Eurobond stability, affirming its undervalued status with 18%+ upside on Tencent AI plays. But watch Q3 earnings and China policy for confirmation—this fits September's emerging market rotation amid viral tech hype. What’s your take? Bullish on Naspers amid #AI Tencent trends? Share in the comments!
Naspers NEXT push up to R501 with a Double Motion?W Formation has formed after some consolidation range in the last few months.
The JSE is also showing strong upside to come as it's catching up to American markets as laggards do.
Technicals are also looking promising with Price>20 and 200MA which deems it HIgh Probability as per the last trade idea.
Target R501.59
Our opinion on the current state of NASPERS-N(NPN)Naspers (NPN) is Africa's largest company and an international giant in social media, gaming, and IT. Its primary asset is a 73% stake in Prosus (PRX), which owns 26% of Tencent, a Hong Kong-listed company providing social media services and gaming in China. Tencent dominates the Chinese market with 10 of the top 20 mobile applications, reaching over 1.1 billion users.
Key Developments and Structure:
1. Capital Structure: Naspers' archaic dual-share structure gives significant control to the 907,128 unlisted "A" ordinary shares, each carrying 1,000 times the voting power of the 438.3 million listed "N" shares. This structure remains a major concern for institutional investors, contributing to the discount in the share price relative to its intrinsic value.
2. Key Investments: Aside from Tencent, Naspers has interests in e-commerce and operates in 120 countries. Key investments include:
- Letgo: Acquired an additional $500 million stake, cementing its presence in the American classifieds market.
- South African Operations: Retained Takealot, Mr. D Food, PayU, and Autotrader.
3. Listing of Prosus: In 2019, Naspers listed Prosus on Euronext in Amsterdam to house its international assets. This move reduced Naspers' rand exposure and established Prosus as Europe's largest consumer internet company.
4. Growth Drivers: Tencent continues to be the main revenue driver, especially during the pandemic when online gaming surged. Naspers has also seen growth in its e-commerce businesses.
Financial Performance:
- For the year ending 31st March 2024, Naspers reported:
- Revenue up 8%.
- Core headline earnings up 88% to $2.1 billion, driven by improved e-commerce profitability and Tencent's performance.
- Headline earnings from continuing operations increased by $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion.
- Debt Position:
- Net debt: $737 million.
- Cash and equivalents: $14.6 billion.
- Interest-bearing debt: $15.4 billion.
- Undrawn revolving credit facility: $2.6 billion.
- Trading Update:
- For the six months to 30th September 2024, Naspers estimated HEPS to increase by 125%-132% due to improved profitability and lower impairment charges.
Technical Analysis:
- Since October 2022, Naspers' share price has staged a recovery. Between March 2023 and April 2024, it moved sideways but then broke to new highs.
- It has surpassed its all-time high of R4090 reached on 21st November 2017, signaling strong upward momentum.
Outlook:
- Naspers is under-priced at current levels, considering its robust growth, strong financial position, and dominance in key markets like Tencent. However, its dual-share structure and exposure to regulatory risks in China remain points of concern.
- The company's diversification through Prosus and consistent growth in e-commerce offer long-term upside potential.
Naspers double breakout pattern for great upsideFalling Wedge and Cup and Handle has formed on Naspers.
The price broke above the Wedge also a downtrend.
It seems like it's going to follow Ten Cent and world markets.
Nature: High probability
Price>20 and 200
Target R4436.84
$JSENPN Naspers On supportNaspers is trading on support at 3570 and testing the breakout level. If it holds, a new all time high could become a target - 4500.
Our opinion on the current state of NASPERS-N(NPN)Naspers (NPN), Africa's largest company, is a massive international social media, gaming, and IT company whose main asset is 73% of Prosus (PRX), which in turn owns 26% of Tencent - a Hong Kong-listed company that provides social media services and gaming in China. Tencent has 10 of China's 20 top mobile applications, reaching over 1.1 billion users.
Naspers itself has an archaic capital structure dominated by its 907,128 unlisted "A" ordinary shareholders. Each "A" ordinary share has 1000 times the voting power of the 438.3 million "N" shares which are listed - so they effectively control the company with 67.4% of the vote. Naspers has many other interests, mainly in e-commerce, and operates in 120 countries worldwide. It has recently bought a further $500 million worth of shares in Letgo - an American classifieds platform that has more than 100 million users. It also owns Takealot and Mr. D Food in South Africa among other interests - but all those other investments are dominated by Tencent. The share's discount to its inherent value is mainly because of its "N" share structure which is frowned upon in the investment community.
Naspers has retained its online shopping operations, Takealot, Mr. D Food, PayU, and Autotrader. On 11th September 2019, Naspers separately listed Prosus on the Euronext in Amsterdam, which houses all its international assets including its stake in Tencent, Mail.Ru, and other internet brands. Naspers held 73% of Prosus and there was a 25% free float. The company has a secondary listing on the JSE. One of the benefits of the Euronext listing is that it removes the risk inherent in the rand. Prosus is now Europe's largest consumer internet company. Tencent continued to grow through the pandemic as more people turned to online gaming.
In its results for the year to 31st March 2024, the company reported revenue up 8% and core headline earnings up 88% to $2.1 billion. The company said, "This was mainly driven by the improved profitability of our Ecommerce consolidated businesses and equity-accounted investments, particularly Tencent, as well as higher net interest income during the year. Headline earnings from continuing operations rose US$1.2 billion to US$1.4 billion. At corporate level, Naspers has a net debt position of US$737 million, comprising US$14.6 billion in central cash and cash equivalents (including short-term cash investments), net of US$15.4 billion in central interest-bearing debt (excluding capitalised lease liabilities). In addition, we have an undrawn US$2.6 billion revolving credit facility."
Technically, since October 2022 the share staged a recovery, and then moved sideways between March 2023 and April 2024. Since then it has broken to new higher levels but still has not risen above its all-time high of R4090 made on 21st November 2017. We still regard this share as under-priced at the current price.
On 18th September 2023, the company announced that Bob van Dijk would resign as CEO with immediate effect. On 17th May 2024, the company announced that Fabricio Bloisi would take over as CEO of both Naspers and Prosus with effect from 1st July 2024.
Our opinion on the current state of NASPERS-N(NPN)Naspers (NPN), Africa's largest company, is a massive international social media, gaming, and IT company whose main asset is its 73% ownership of Prosus (PRX), which in turn owns 26% of Tencent, a Hong Kong-listed company providing social media services and gaming in China. Tencent has 10 of China's 20 top mobile applications, reaching over 1.1 billion users. Naspers itself has an archaic capital structure where it is dominated by its 907,128 unlisted "A" ordinary shareholders. Each "A" ordinary share has 1,000 times the voting power of the 438.3 million "N" shares which are listed, effectively controlling the company with 67.4% of the vote.
Naspers has many other interests, mainly in e-commerce, and operates in 120 countries worldwide. It has recently bought a further $500 million worth of shares in Letgo, an American classifieds platform with more than 100 million users. It also owns Takealot and Mr. D Food in South Africa, among other interests, but all those other investments are dominated by Tencent. The share's discount to its inherent value is mainly because of its "N" share structure, which is frowned upon in the investment community.
Naspers has retained its online shopping operations, including Takealot, Mr. D. Food, PayU, and Autotrader. On 11th September 2019, Naspers separately listed Prosus on the Euronext in Amsterdam, housing all its international assets including its stake in Tencent, Mail.Ru, and other internet brands. Naspers held 73% of Prosus, and there was a 25% free float. The company has a secondary listing on the JSE. One of the benefits of the Euronext listing is that it removes the risk inherent in the rand. Prosus is now Europe's largest consumer internet company.
Tencent continued to grow through the pandemic as more people turned to online gaming. On 27th January 2023, Bloomberg announced that Naspers intended to retrench about 30% of its workforce. In its results for the six months to 30th September 2023, the company reported revenue from continuing operations up 9% and core headline earnings up 90%. The company said, "This was primarily due to improved profitability of our e-commerce consolidated businesses and equity-accounted investments, particularly Tencent, and higher net interest income during the period. At 30 September 2023, the ongoing open-ended share repurchase programme has reduced the Naspers net share count by 14% and generated US$25bn for our shareholders."
In a trading statement for the year to 31st March 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would rise to between 669c and 677c (US) compared with 119c in the previous year. Technically, since October 2022, the share has staged a recovery, and then moved sideways between March 2023 and April 2024. Since then, it has broken to new higher levels. We still regard this share as under-priced at the current price.
On 18th September 2023, the company announced that Bob van Dijk would resign as CEO with immediate effect. On 17th May 2024, the company announced that Fabricio Bloisi would take over as CEO of both Naspers and Prosus with effect from 1st July 2024.
Overall, Naspers continues to show strong financial performance and strategic growth. The ongoing share repurchase program, the robust performance of Tencent, and the new leadership under Fabricio Bloisi suggest potential for further appreciation. Despite the complexities of its share structure, the company's diverse portfolio and substantial assets make it an attractive investment, particularly at its current undervalued levels.
Our opinion on the current state of NASPERS-N(NPN)Naspers (NPN), Africa's largest company, is a massive international social media, gaming, and IT company whose main asset is a 73% stake in Prosus (PRX), which in turn owns 26% of Tencent—a Hong Kong-listed company providing social media services and gaming in China. Tencent boasts 10 of China's top 20 mobile applications, reaching over 1.1 billion users. Naspers itself maintains an archaic capital structure dominated by its 907,128 unlisted "A" ordinary shareholders. Each "A" ordinary share has 1,000 times the voting power of the 438.3 million "N" shares listed, effectively controlling the company with 67.4% of the vote.
Naspers has many other interests, primarily in e-commerce, operating in 120 countries worldwide. It recently invested an additional $500 million in Letgo—an American classifieds platform with over 100 million users. It also owns Takealot and Mr. D Food in South Africa, among other interests—though these are overshadowed by its stake in Tencent. The discount of the share to its inherent value is mainly due to its "N" share structure, which is frowned upon in the investment community.
On 11th September 2019, Naspers separately listed Prosus on the Euronext in Amsterdam, housing all its international assets, including its stakes in Tencent, Mail.Ru, and other internet brands. Naspers held 73% of Prosus, with a 25% free float. The Euronext listing mitigates the risk inherent in the rand, elevating Prosus to become Europe's largest consumer internet company. Tencent continued to grow throughout the pandemic as more people turned to online gaming.
On 27th January 2023, Bloomberg announced that Naspers intended to retrench about 30% of its workforce. In its financial results for the six months ending 30th September 2023, the company reported a 9% increase in revenue from continuing operations and a 90% increase in core headline earnings. The company stated, "This was primarily due to improved profitability of our e-commerce consolidated businesses and equity-accounted investments, particularly Tencent, and higher net interest income during the period. At 30 September 2023, the ongoing open-ended share repurchase programme has reduced the Naspers net share count by 14% and generated US$25 billion for our shareholders."
Technically, since October 2022, the share has staged a recovery but has been moving sideways since March 2023. We still regard this share as underpriced at current levels. On 18th September 2023, the company announced that Bob van Dijk would resign as CEO with immediate effect. On 17th May 2024, the company announced that Fabricio Bloisi would take over as CEO of both Naspers and Prosus, effective from 1st July 2024.
NPN (Reduce/Sell)NPN Naspers
The print into overbought conditions has been an opportunity to sell.
Look to enter at lower levels.
$JSENPN - Naspers: Major Resistance AheadNaspers has found the going tough since the January 2023 peak, trading sideways in a wide range.
The consolidation has not been a textbook rectangle with supporting shifting zones but the resistance has been stern around 355300 cps.
The stock caught a big at 267330 and is again approaching the resistance for a third attempt to break above it.
I am neutral at this point and will monitor price action and volume at the resistance zone.
NPNWednesday 21 February-2024, 07h55 | NPN Naspers Ltd | With Tencent +3% in Hong Kong this morning, it is likely that NPN rebounds in line with this move. As per yesterday's end of day tactical trading guide, the short term reading (1-10 days) is as follows "...expect a small rebound". See extract on chart.
Naspers - Top of channel rejectionFollowing on from the previous post , we did in fact get a strong rejection off the top of the channel (major gap down) . Bulls stepped in at the channel low making a decent recovery back up to resistance. The daily candles warned of resistance again and today it seems the stock will come under pressure with R3180 a possible initial target .
link to previous post below---
UPDATE: Naspers target to R1,591 on the way - WARNINGWe'll get into what happened to Naspers in a bit, or just scroll down...
But I need to mention something, that not many people know.
About two years ago, I stopped trading Naspers.
It was so rigged and manipulated between many factors and alogrithms.
1. First with TenCent, then with Prosus.
Then with prop funds who just make money with the incremental moves throwing in 1s and manipulating the market on only technicals.
Well, we sent out a short potential analysis as we expected the price to drop.
A Strong M Pattern formed. Broke down. Next few days gapped up and almost reached the stop loss.
Today the price dropped over 17%. And now it looks like there's further downside to come.
But don't take my word for it because Naspers is probably one of the most difficult markets to probability predict.
Let's get into the basics of the fundamentals that took place today:
WHAT HAPPENED TO NASPERS AND PROSUS?
#1: Naspers and Prosus, the global internet and media companies, experienced a significant plunge in their share prices on Friday due to new Chinese tech regulations impacting Tencent.
#2: Beijing unveiled measures aimed at curbing spending in online games, affecting major players in the tech sector, including Tencent.
#3: The share prices of Naspers and Prosus fell sharply by 17% and 14%.
#4: The decline was triggered by concerns over the potential impact of the regulatory changes on Tencent and other companies operating in the sector.
NASPERS - Top of channel.The stock has been trading in a sideways channel since the beginning of this year. Currently its attempting to break out but the wicks above R3500 is an indication of sellers still around.
Tencent has also been up against its 200ema and has today come under pressure. Expecting a sell-off on NPN towards its rising 20ema. Failure there opens a possibly deeper pullback towards R3240.
$NPN Naspers. The story of Naspers for 2023 - ConsolidationNaspers has been consolidating in a +-20% range between the high and the low for 2023.
Let's hope we get a Xmas rally to break the upper boundary limit and end the year on a high.
Our opinion on the current state of NPNNaspers (NPN), Africa's largest company, is a massive international social media, gaming, and IT company whose main asset is 73% of Prosus (PRX) which in turn owns 26% of Tencent - a Hong Kong-listed company that provides social media services and gaming in China. Tencent has 10 of China's 20 top mobile applications reaching over 1,1bn users. Naspers itself has an archaic capital structure where it is dominated by its 907128 unlisted "A" ordinary shareholders. Each "A" ordinary share has 1000 times the voting power of the 438,3m "N" shares which are listed - so they effectively control the company with 67,4% of the vote. Naspers has many other interests, mainly in e-commerce and operates in 120 countries worldwide. It has recently bought a further $500m worth of shares in Letgo - an American classifieds platform that has more than 100 million users. It also owns Takealot and Mr. D Food in South Africa among other interests - but all those other investments are dominated by Tencent. The share's discount to its inherent value is mainly because of its "N" share structure which is frowned upon in the investment community. Naspers has retained its online shopping operations, Takealot, Mr. D. Food, PayU and Autotrader. On 11th September 2019, Naspers separately listed Prosus on the Euronext in Amsterdam which houses all its international assets including its stake in Tencent, Mail.Ru and other internet brands. Naspers held 73% of Prosus and there was a 25% free float. The company has a secondary listing on the JSE. One of the benefits of the Euronext listing is that it removes the risk inherent in the rand. Prosus is now Europe's largest consumer internet company. Tencent continued to grow through the pandemic as more people turned to online gaming. On 26th July 2021 Tencent fell about 8% due to Chinese clamp-down on its music streaming business. This obviously impacted Prosus and Naspers with their shares falling in tandem. According to Business Day of 10th September 2021, there was a report in the South China Morning Post that to the effect that the approval of new games was prohibited. This caused both Prosus' and its parent, Naspers' shares to fall sharply. On 24th October 2022, the re-election of Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a third term caused Naspers shares to fall heavily. Jinping is part of a faction in Chinese politics which aims to keep the "disorderly expansion of capital" under control. The company realised a profit of $12,3bn on the sale of 2% of Tencent in April 2021. On 17th August 2022 Naspers said that it intended to sell Prosus shares and to use the proceeds to buy back more of its own shares. On 27th January 2023 Bloomberg announced that Naspers intended to retrench about 30% of its workforce. In its results for the year to 31st March 2023 the company reported revenue slightly up at $6,78bn and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 119c compared with 547c in the previous year. The company announced on 27th June 2023 that Naspers was going to unwind the cross shareholding between in at Prosus. The news was well-received by the market because it simplified the overall structure of both businesses making them easier to analyse. In a trading statement for the six months to 30th September 2023 the company estimated that HEPS from continuing operations would be between 282c and 284c compared with 28c in the previous period. Technically, the Prosus share price came off because of rand strength, the complexity of the share swap and then on 26th July 2021 the share fell 7% due to new Chinese regulations which impact on Tencent's music streaming business. The sudden drop in the share price was due to the re-election of Xi Jinping as Chinese premier. Since October 2022 the share has staged a recovery, but has been moving sideways since March 2023. We still regard this share as under-priced at current levels. On 18th September 2023 the company announced that Bob van Dijk would resign as CEO with immediate effect.
JSE Technology vs JSE Top 40From my research notes this morning. For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today.
Tuesday 14-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Tech vs Top 40 Index. The chart below is the JSE Technology Sector relative to the JSE Top 40 Index and as well as the ratio's distance vs it's 75-Day EMA and 200-Day SMA. Here, I highlight the technology (NPN, PRX) having traded in a year-to-date sideways range and testing the overhead resistance for the 5th time. As you may already know, persistent tests of a level may eventually lead to the level being breached. In this case, it would mean that the constituents will outperform the JSE Top 40 Index on a relative basis.
Naspers after a long YEAR fight - Bears have wonIt's been a trying time for Naspers Media company.
Since January 2023, up until October 2023.
The price has moved in a sideways range and has failed to break either way.
That was un 18 October 2023, where the price pierced through a solid neckline of an M Formation,
Since then, it's entered into bear market territory along with the JSE ALSI 40.
The signs are all pointing down for now and we are more selling to come.
Other indicators show downside.
200>21>7
RSI<50
Target R2,367.00
#NPN Naspers range bound - holding bottom of boxNaspers has been trading in a very sideways fashion over since the beginning of the year with support evident in the 2920-2980 area with resistance at 3400 - 3570 on the upside. Most likely with a nibble at the bottom of the range which looks to be holding for now
