Gold Long: Wave 3 of 3 of 3 of 5 UpIn this long video, I updated the wave counts for Gold and explained the rationale for putting the stop loss (above support instead of below) and raised concerns about volatility due to Nvidia earnings release.
GOLD.F trade ideas
XAU/USD/ Bearish Trend Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of analysis Gold (XAU/USD), 2H timeframe:
Trend Context: Price is moving inside a descending channel, showing continued bearish pressure.
Key Resistance Zone: The yellow highlighted area around $3,340 – $3,347 is acting as a supply zone / resistance, aligned with the 200 EMA, reinforcing bearish bias.
Rejection Signals: Multiple rejections (red arrows) confirm sellers are defending this zone.
Bearish Setup: Price is expected to reject from resistance and continue lower within the channel.
Target Point: The projection suggests a decline towards $3,302, aligning with previous swing levels and channel support.
RSI: Currently mid-level (~51), showing no strong momentum shift yet, but still leaves room for downside pressure.
Mr SMC Trading point
Summary Idea:
Gold is respecting the bearish channel and supply zone. As long as price stays below $3,347, the setup favors a bearish continuation targeting $3,302.
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Gold: Is Market Manipulation Driving the Move?Gold: Is Market Manipulation Driving the Move?
Gold hit 3509 today but quickly dropped back below 3500. As long as it stays under this level, a sell-off remains likely. I don’t expect any major news to trigger this move—it could simply unfold without a clear reason, just like the recent bullish wave did.
If today’s candle closes as a pinbar, we might see a small Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the 60-minute chart, which could push prices lower.
The key level to watch is the neckline, around 3470. A break below that could trigger further downside.
💵 Dollar Strength vs. Gold
The DXY and USD were strong today, and that strength showed up in the indices—but not in gold. It’s possible gold could drop during the U.S. market open. If it doesn’t, and instead starts rising, it might suggest that manipulation is playing a bigger role than expected.
It’s strange how gold reflects all the major USD-related news—like inflation and interest rates—but doesn’t seem to react to USD strength, which is a clear strength. The whole situation feels highly manipulated and disconnected from fundamentals.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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𝐌𝐓𝐗 | Buy-Side Sweet Spot in Gold’s Correction📌 From previous analysis:
• We anticipated corrective pullbacks and highlighted reversal zones.
• Focus was on 436–432 as the first critical support/resistance area.
⸻
1️⃣ Key Reversal Levels
There’s two scenarios in this rally:
A)
• 436 – 432 → First potential bullish reversal zone.
• 4H close above 435 → upside continuation toward 442 → 447 → 452.
B)
• 4H close below 432 → decline into 420.
• 420 – 415 is the strongest weekly demand zone (high-probability bullish bounce).
⸻
2️⃣ Continues Bullish Scenario
• 4H close above 454 → opens the way to 467.
• Stabilization above 467 → next major upside target 484.
✴️Plus Tip:
Daily closes above 420-415 zone supports the bullish momentum.
⸻
⚖️ Summary:
Gold is starting the month at a decisive zone (436–432). Holding above 435 favors further upside toward 452, while losing 432 puts the strong 420–415 demand zone into play. A confirmed breakout above 454 could accelerate the rally toward 484.
XAUUSD Success in the FX, indices, and gold markets comes from discipline, not luck — I win by combining deep market analysis with strict risk management, keeping emotions out of trading, and focusing on long-term consistency rather than quick gains. Every trade is based on research, patience, and clear strategy, allowing me to grow steadily while protecting capital.
GOLD Analysis - 29/8/2025 Update (Scenario 2 from 4)GOLD Analysis - 29/8/2025 Update (Scenario 1 from 4)
This is Scenario 1 from 4 Scenario
XAU OUTLOOK TODAYHey Guys, I see a deeper pullback to yesterday's Daily low to sweep of liquidity then push up towards 3438 level. Wait till BCC at 3414.63 in 1TFM before you take a short counter trade as overall we are super bullish. It's Friday, trade chill everyone. Trade smart, Trade safe. Cheers'
Gold shortOANDA:XAUUSD
an ascending wedge and a false flat breakout formed in gold, after which the price broke through the trend line and made a retracement, with targets on the chart
Sell Idea!Hello all. Market cannot break the zone, I couldn't optimize the zone. if you can optimize the zone by your own method you are able to enter the position. be happy(wink)
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Gold on undisputed Bullish trendTechnical analysis: As expected the #3,448.80 - #3,452.80 Support zone held throughout late U.S. early Asian session and such development alone gave Gold a strong boost back above the Daily chart’s #3,472.80 Resistance (former ATH's values line). Gold’s Short-term remains aggressively Bullish regardless of Intra-day’s aggressive slide and the next Technical Target remains #3,500.80 psychological benchmark since most of my instruments which were showcasing Bearish turnaround are now shifted to Bullish side (needless to mention this upside move on Gold is directly proportional to Fundamental side). This strength of Gold is maintained despite current rise on Bond Yields and DX as well, and every time Price-action gets rejected near the Support zone, Gold will be forced once again towards the Resistance (and vice-versa). Current aggressive spikes to the upside are illustrating aggressively increased demand for Gold as an safe-haven asset as war escalations are seen worldwide. Based on Daily chart’s dynamics, Gold’s Bullish trend is preserved and if #3,500.80 benchmark gets invalidated, Gold is once again heading for uncharted territory and all sequences are possible.
My position: Continue Buying every dip on Gold and turn to Selling only when Gold closes session below #3,452.80 benchmark.
Long on Golda long position was entered on gold up breakout and retest of resistance turned support. The entry price, stop loss and take profit are as seen in the trading idea above.
XAUUSD scalpan idea of short term gold movement. i see gold dropping to 3350 after getting rejected 3 times at the trendline. from 3350, i expect i move which breaks out of that trendline
Defend 3380, break through 3400 and there will be new highsLast night I reminded everyone not to chase high prices, as gold may experience a pullback in the short term. As expected, gold hit 3390-3400 and then encountered resistance and pressure, and then fell back to around 3385. This is in line with our judgment of the short-term trend of gold.
Currently, gold has returned to consolidate around 3395. As the price of gold continues to rise, the pressure and support levels of gold will also move up in the short term. In the short term, pay attention to the upper pressure range of 3402-3412. If the European session encounters resistance and pressure here, there is still a possibility of a pullback. Pay attention to 3390-3380 below. If it falls back but does not break through, you can consider going long. Once it stabilizes above 3400 in the NY period, it is expected to hit a new high. Focus on the initial jobless claims data to be released later.
XAUUSD — Daily Sniper Plan (Aug 25, 2025)Hello traders,
Let’s get ready for tomorrow. Gold is still trading inside a structural range, and liquidity hunts are likely before a decisive move. Here’s the refined roadmap:
🌍 Macro / Geopolitical
Powell’s dovish tone Friday lifted gold; USD remains soft but not broken.
No major US data until Thursday’s Unemployment Claims, so tomorrow is driven mainly by technical flows.
Safe-haven appetite stays supportive in the background.
📊 Bias & Structure
HTF (Daily/H4): Range-bound between 3320 demand and 3450 supply.
LTF (H1/M30/M15): Price sits in premium; expect liquidity sweeps and decision inside FVG.
🧭 Structural Zones
Demand (buy interest):
3340 – 3325 → Intraday demand OB + liquidity sweep.
3310 – 3295 → Deeper discount demand.
Supply (sell interest):
3390 – 3405 → Primary intraday supply (OB + resting liquidity).
3420 – 3440 → HTF supply cluster, strong cap.
📌 Intraday Key Levels
3295 · 3310 · 3325 · 3340 · 3370 · 3395 · 3405 · 3420 · 3440
⚖️ Decision Zone
3370 – 3330 = FVG / Imbalance Zone
This is the battlefield:
Hold top side (3340–3370) → bullish continuation.
Full fill toward 3330 → inducement for deeper demand test.
Market direction for the session will be decided here.
🎯 Trade Scenarios
Bullish 🟢
Longs from 3340–3325 demand → targets 3370 and 3395–3405 supply.
Break & hold above 3405 → continuation toward 3420–3440.
Bearish 🔴
Rejection at 3395–3405 supply → sends price back into 3370, then 3340–3325.
Break below 3325 → exposes 3310–3295.
🔗 Confluences
EMAs: Price above EMA21/EMA50, EMA200 flat → confirms range.
RSI: Neutral-bullish, room for both retracement & extension.
FVGs: Main imbalance at 3370–3330 = decision zone.
✅ Action Plan
Monitor 3370–3330 FVG as the session’s decision zone.
Primary buy: 3340–3325; primary sell: 3395–3405.
Break of either side (3325 or 3405) should define momentum for the day.
💬 Gold is caught inside a clean decision zone — do you see bulls holding 3340 or sellers defending 3405? Drop your thoughts in the comments 👇 If this plan gave you clarity, leave a 🚀🚀🚀 and follow for daily sniper updates.
— GoldFxMinds | Trade Nation Disclaimer
GOLD (XAUUSD): Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Support 1: 3306 - 3315 area
Support 2: 3245 - 3275 area
Support 3: 3121 - 3177 area
Resistance 1: 3371 - 3380 area
Resistance 2: 3403 - 3408 area
Resistance 3: 3431 - 3451 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Gold Prices Overview of Primary Catalyst : September 2025⚡️ Gold: Consolidation Before the Next Move
Gold set fresh records earlier this year and now sits in a tight post–Jackson Hole range around $3,360–$3,380/oz as rate-cut odds jumped and the dollar eased back. Spot was ~$3,368 this morning, slightly off Friday’s spike after Powell opened the door to a September cut.
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1) Fed Path & Real Yields — 9.5/10 (Bullish for gold)
Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks highlighted rising labor-market risks and explicitly “opened the door” to a September cut. Futures now price a high probability of an initial -25 bps move with more to follow into year-end. Lower policy rates/real yields remain the single strongest tailwind for non-yielding gold.
2) U.S. Dollar Trend — 7.5/10 (Bullish for gold)
The DXY slipped toward the high-97s after Powell’s dovish tilt and remains soft versus recent peaks, reducing a key headwind to non-USD buyers. If the dollar rebound stalls, gold’s upside path stays cleaner.
3) Central-Bank Buying / De-Dollarization — 8.5/10 (Bullish)
Official-sector demand stays structurally strong. Global central banks remain on track for another ~1,000t year, with China’s PBoC extending purchases for a ninth straight month. This “sticky” bid continues to underwrite dips.
4) Trade/Tariff Shock (incl. U.S. tariffs on bullion) — 8.0/10 (Bullish)
The broad U.S. tariff regime (10% baseline, higher on targeted goods) is inflationary at the margin; crucially, imports of 1kg/100oz gold bars were swept into the rules, temporarily snarling Swiss shipments and roiling COMEX/LBMA logistics until guidance is clarified. Result: fatter location/financing premia and periodic price dislocations that tend to support spot.
5) ETF & Institutional Flows — 7.5/10 (Bullish)
After years of outflows, ETF inflows in the first half of 2025 were the strongest in 5 years (~$38B; +397t), with July showing further additions. GLD holdings are back near ~957t. Continued inflows amplify macro moves.
6) Systematic/CTA & Positioning Dynamics — 6.5/10 (Mixed → Volatility)
CTAs and options flow are magnifying swings around key levels ($3,350–$3,420). Upside call demand is persistent, meaning whipsaws remain likely as trend-following systems react to dollar/yield shifts.
7) China Property & Growth Stress — 6.0/10 (Bullish)
The Evergrande delisting and deepening Country Garden losses underscore a property slump that keeps risk appetite in check and supports defensive assets. Weak housing drags on jewelry demand but typically supports investment demand for bullion.
8) U.S. Fiscal Risk & Credit Quality — 6.0/10 (Bullish)
The May downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit and ongoing wide deficits keep a slow-burn bid under gold. Any wobble in auctions or debt-ceiling theatrics would push this higher.
9) Jewelry & Tech Demand — 5.0/10 (Slightly Bearish/neutral short-term)
Record prices hit Q2 jewelry volumes (-14% y/y to 341t), though India shows early signs of seasonal revival into festivals. Tech demand dipped ~2% y/y amid electronics softness. Physical demand is a brake on parabolic rallies.
10) Geopolitics (Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan risk, etc.) — 5.5/10 (Event-Bullish)
Headlines remain volatile—Israeli strikes on Iran-aligned Houthis and ongoing Ukraine politics keep a latent safe-haven premium. Spikes are event-driven unless escalation persists.
________________________________________
🌐 Other Catalysts to Watch
• Crypto Cross-Flows (5/10): Sharp crypto drawdowns can funnel short-term interest into gold, though correlation remains inconsistent.
• Bullion Logistics & Refining (New): U.S. tariff ambiguity on kilobars introduces intermittent premiums and arbitrage opportunities between Zurich–London–NY.
• Physical Supply Disruptions (4/10): Always idiosyncratic; currently secondary to macro.
| Rank | Catalyst | Score/10 | Current Impact | Direction | Notes |
| ---- | ------------------------------------------ | -------: | -------------- | ------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------ |
| 1 | Fed path & real yields | **9.5** | Very High | **Bullish** | Dovish tilt; cuts now live for Sept. |
| 2 | Central-bank buying | **8.5** | High | **Bullish** | Ongoing official demand; PBoC keeps adding. |
| 3 | Trade/tariff shock (incl. bullion tariffs) | **8.0** | High | **Bullish** | Broad tariffs + bullion rules raise premia & inflation risk. |
| 4 | U.S. dollar trend | **7.5** | High | **Bullish** | DXY softer post-Jackson Hole; less drag on gold. |
| 5 | ETF/institutional flows | **7.5** | High | **Bullish** | Biggest inflows in 5 yrs; GLD holdings high. |
| 6 | Systematic/CTA flows | **6.5** | Moderate | **Mixed** | Options/CTA activity driving overshoots both ways. |
| 7 | China property stress | **6.0** | Moderate | **Bullish** | Structural drag supports safe-haven demand. |
| 8 | U.S. fiscal/credit risk | **6.0** | Moderate | **Bullish** | Downgrade + deficits maintain hedge demand. |
| 9 | Jewelry/tech demand | **5.0** | Low | **Neutral → Slightly Bearish** | Jewelry volumes fell 14% y/y; festivals could revive. |
| 10 | Geopolitics (broad) | **5.5** | Low–Mod | **Bullish (event-driven)** | Episodic; not the primary driver now. |
XAUUSD Strong 1D MA100 rebound. Buy.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within an Ascending Triangle since its April 22 All Time High (ATH). Shortly after it solidified a Higher Lows trend-line as its Support with a 1D Body Candle Resistance Zone, limiting any upside break-out.
Last Wednesday it hit and rebounded on its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the 2nd time in 1 month, showing strong resilience and the presence of a short-term Demand Zone. The last Lower High contact was made a little above the 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level. This gives us a 3420 short-term Target, which is marginally below the Resistance Zone.
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Gold Setup: Bearish Rising Wedge Signals Imminent ReversalHello everyone, I'm back with the latest update on OANDA:XAUUSD !
On the H1 chart, we can see a "Bearish Rising Wedge" pattern forming, signaling a potential downtrend. After a strong rally, gold has continued to create higher highs, but buying momentum is weakening, indicating a divergence between price and volume in the market.
This rising wedge pattern often leads to a reversal, and if gold fails to break through the important resistance at 3,400 USD, the chances of a sharp decline are high. The next support levels around 3,372 and 3,368 USD will be key areas to watch. If these levels are broken, the downtrend will be further confirmed.
Looking at the technical factors, as selling pressure increases, the price could decline even further. This presents an opportunity for traders to consider short positions as the market is likely heading into a significant correction.
What do you think about XAUUSD? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Intraday Buy IdeaPositive reversal on RSI in the strong upside trend and potential for the further upside movement towards PDH(PreviousDayHigh)
Gold trading analysis!GOLD has been quite bullish last month, this month we are expecting it to slow down to a bit early part and then take the top once more.
GOLDGOLD has been quite bullish last month, this month we are expecting it to slow down to a bit early part and then take the top once more.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
