Liquidity: The Trap That Powers the MarketโThe market doesnโt move to reward you.
It moves to hunt those who move without awareness.โ
Every beginner asks: โWhy did price stop me out before going in my direction?โ
The answer is usually one word: Liquidity .
What is Liquidity?
Liquidity is simply where orders are waiting:
Buy stops above a recent high
Sell stops below a recent low
Pending orders around round numbers (like 3400, 3350 in Gold)
These areas are pools of money.
The market needs these pools to fill large institutional orders.
Why Traders Get Trapped
Price breaks above a high โ retail traders buy the breakout.
Price dips below a low โ retail traders sell the breakdown.
But instead of continuing, price often snaps back .
Why? Because the market just collected those stops โ the liquidity it needed โ before reversing.
This is why beginners often say:
โEvery time I enter, the market goes the other way.โ
Sweep vs Grab
Sweep = Price pushes above/below a key level to collect stops. This alone doesnโt mean reversal.
Grab = After the sweep, price rejects and shifts structure (ChoCH/BOS). This confirms intent and often leads to the true move.
Practical Example (Gold)
Suppose Gold makes a high at 3395.
Many traders place buy stops above 3395, expecting a breakout.
Price pushes to 3397 (this is the sweep ), then falls back under 3395.
If structure shifts bearish after that, it becomes a liquidity grab .
The smart entry isnโt the breakout.
Itโs after the sweep, when the grab confirms direction.
Trading isnโt about being the first one in.
Itโs about being the last one trapped.
Patience protects you from becoming liquidity yourself.
๐ Shared by @ChartIsMirror
GOLD.F trade ideas
XAUUSD BULLISH CONTINUATIONPRICE has recently broken its last higher high, shifting market structure and indicating Buyers are currently in control.
This break opened up a clear Demand Zone below, a small base or last bearish candle before the rise, which is a key area where unfulfilled buy orders may be resting.
Price has retraced back into this Demand Zone to fill those orders. I'm expecting buying pressure to resume and push price upward, honouring the imbalance left by the rise.
Entry: I will enter once I get a good confirmation in the demand zone
๐ฏ TP: Supply zone above
๐ SL: Just below the demand zone
Let me know what you think about this idea.
GOLD in 4h. Will it break 3450 or will we have a heavy drop?Hello to all traders. ๐๐
I hope all your deals will hit their targets. ๐๐
After breaking above 3405 and stabilizing above that level, we can expect a bullish move toward the 3435โ3450 range.
However, since the upward movement so far hasn't been sharp or strong, I anticipate a significant drop from that zone.
It seems like the market is once again gathering sell orders above itself, preparing for a heavier drop.
If the bullish move manages to push above $3450 and holds that level with two or three 4-hour candles.
๐๐ this analysis would be invalidated, and we could consider that the market still has room for further growth.
โ ๏ธโ ๏ธโ ๏ธโ ๏ธDonโt forget to apply proper risk management!
What Do You Think?
Which scenario do you think is happen? **Share your thoughts!** โฌ๏ธ
Don't forget that this is just an analysis to give you an idea and trade with your own strategy. And don't forget the stop loss๐๐๐
โค๏ธโค๏ธโค๏ธThe only friend you have in financial markets is your stop lossโค๏ธโค๏ธโค๏ธ
Please support me with your โ
' like'โ
and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ๐๐
Be Happy , Ali Jamali
Trading plan for Gold (XAU/USD)Gold (XAU/USD โ Daily, Heikin Ashi) chart:
๐ Key Observations
Price Zone:
Gold is trading between 3,378 (support) and 3,409 (resistance).
Strong Bullish OBs are stacked below (3,334 โ 3,311).
Order Flow:
Multiple bearish OB rejections at 3,409 โ sellers are defending that level.
However, price is not breaking down โ showing accumulation.
RSI (around 61):
Still bullish, not overbought.
Suggests potential upside continuation if breakout happens.
Structure:
This looks like a tight consolidation before a breakout.
Market is โcoilingโ around resistance.
๐ Next Movement Expectation
If daily candle closes above 3,410 โ Gold likely breaks upward toward 3,430 โ 3,450 โ 3,460.
If rejection happens at 3,409 again โ Pullback to 3,334 โ 3,323 zone is likely.
โ
Bias (next move):
Gold is building pressure for an upside breakout, but until we see a daily close above 3,410, the market will stay in range and may retest support.
โ๏ธ In short:
Watch 3,410 โ Break = Bullish Move.
Watch 3,378 โ Break = Bearish Pullback.
Gold (XAUUSD) Bullish Rally Towards Key Targets.Analysis:
Yesterday, Gold respected my support zone at 3315 - 3310 exactly as predicted. After holding this level, the market has now turned bullish, and I am expecting continuation towards the upside.
Targets for the bullish rally:
1st Target: 3340 โ 3345
2nd Target: 3372 โ 3377
3rd Target: 3399 โ 3403
Trend Outlook:
As long as Gold stays above 3315 to 3310 support, the bias remains bullish towards the mentioned resistance zones.
Note: This is my personal technical outlook, not financial advice. Trade safe with proper risk management.
If you find my analysis helpful and useful then please like, comment, and share to motivate me for posting more trading ideas for my followers.
Regards: Forex Insights Pro.
Gold Approaching Key Resistance | Sell-on-Rise Opportunity AheadGold (XAUUSD) is expected to face strong resistance between 3485 and 3492 โ a prime zone where fresh sellers could step in and trigger a downside move. We're eyeing profit opportunities with a sell-on-rise setup.
๐ป Short Trade Setup โ Fading the Strength
Entry: Sell at 3386
Add on Strength: 3392
Targets: See chart for marked zones
Invalidation: Daily close above 3402
๐ Risk-Reward Outlook
This setup presents a favorable risk-reward ratio, especially for short-term traders aiming to capitalize on a potential rejection at resistance. As always, keep your risk tight and position sizing disciplined.
Gold has had its run โ now the odds may favor the contrarian. Keep an eye on momentum and price action at the resistance zone.
๐ If this idea aligns with your view, give it a like and drop your thoughts in the comments โ letโs exchange ideas and insights!
๐ Follow us for more actionable trade setups.
Happy Trading,
โ The InvestPro Team
GOLD RETRACEMENT COMPLETE HIGH BREAK (READ CAPTION)Hi trader's what do you think about gold
current price :3375
Gold gave a retracement and also broke the recent high, showing strength. Price is now holding above support zones and moving toward the next target levels.
Support Zones: 3370 โ 3362 โ 3352
Target Levels: 3404 โ 3410
Risk Level / Invalidation: 3345
For more chart updates and analysis, you can follow my TradingView profile.
XAU / USD 1 Hour ChartHello traders. Just a quick hourly chart showing the range I am waiting to break out from . Looking for a break and close to take a scalp buy / sell on the retest. It's early in the week. I am also watching the 4 hour candle. I will update in a bit. Big G gets my thanks. Be well and trade the trend. Happy Tuesday.
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook | Bullish Rally from Key Supports.This week, I am focusing on two important support zones:
๐น 3440 โ 3450
๐น 3410 โ 3400
From these supports, I expect gold to continue its bullish rally. If the recent higher high breaks, I anticipate further upside momentum as price may create new highs this week.
๐ The bullish pressure is confirmed by both the monthly candle closing and the weekly candle closing, which indicate strong buying interest in the market.
๐ I remain bullish as long as the supports hold, watching for continuation towards fresh highs.
If you like my analysis, donโt forget to ๐ Like, ๐ฌ Comment & ๐ Share your thoughts!
Regards: Forex Insights Pro.
#XAUUSD #Gold #WeeklyAnalysis #BullishSetup #PriceAction #SupportAndResistance #ForexTrading #GoldAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #Foryou
GOLD UPDATEShELLO folks, Its been a week my idea still on LONGS, Now Im expecting price to Monthly openning price of june and July.
For interested on making a trade just don't forget to D.M me. I will give it for free, only if you want to trade only,
But if you want to learn? lets talk about it.
Currently Swinging This gold idea, but you know where my entries before.
So if youre following me since then, this might be your another entry.
wait for our zone or you can ride the current price.
Goodluck. I am open on any suggestions on this idea. This is not your typical ideas.
Goodluck and take it if you like it.
Were expecting 3400 again.
Gold (XAUUSD) โ Bullish Bias, Watching 3384โ3386 ZoneGold (XAUUSD) Analysis โ 28 August
Market Structure
H4 Trend: Bullish
M15 Trend: Bullish
โก๏ธ Both timeframes are aligned, confirming an overall bullish bias.
Current Phase
M15 is in a pullback after recent bullish momentum.
Market preparing for potential continuation setups.
Key Zones
3384 โ 3386 (First Buy Zone):
If respected, expect continuation toward 3395 โ 3400.
3376 โ 3378 (Deeper Demand Zone):
Strong institutional demand. If price dips here, this becomes the high-probability long entry zone.
Execution Plan
Wait for price action confirmation inside zones before entry.
If 3384 โ 3386 fails, shift focus to 3376 โ 3378.
Manage risk and follow structure.
Bias for Today
๐ Bullish โ favoring long setups from demand zones.
๐ Shared by @ChartIsMirror
XAUUSD: The Bullish Dragon Awakens
On this chart, gold (XAU/USD) sketches a classic Bullish Dragonโa reversal pattern whispering that bears are losing their grip. The patternโs anatomy is clear: two deep lows forming the โlegs,โ a corrective peak as the โhump,โ and now, the breakout thrust aiming skyward.
Entry sits just above the dragonโs back, near 3,383, signaling that the market is coiled for a bullish leap. The targets aheadโ3,410 and 3,438โstand like twin summits, waiting for the climb. Below, the stop zone near 3,352 guards against failure, anchoring risk in a turbulent sea.
Continuation or Rejection?
Continuation Scenario: If price holds above the breakout line, momentum can ignite a rally toward 3,410 first, then 3,438, confirming the dragonโs strength.
Rejection Risk: A slip back under 3,352 would slay the pattern, sending gold tumbling toward 3,335 or lower.
With Trumpโs recent dovish stance and push for rate cuts, real yields shrink, and gold gleams brighter as a refuge. This macro wind supports the dragonโs wingsโpolicy favoring liquidity often fuels precious metal rallies.
Literary Verdict: The dragon breathes optimism, its path paved by softer monetary tones. If the macro breeze stays warm, expect golden skies above 3,438.
Gold (XAU/USD) 1st September 2025๐ Market Context
Gold continues to trade within a high-liquidity environment, driven by ongoing flows between equity risk sentiment, real yields, and dollar positioning. With the $3500 psychological level acting as a liquidity magnet above, and demand clusters building in the $3440 region, todayโs structure offers both sides of opportunity.
Our institutional framework layers multiple confluences across Daily โ 4H โ 1H, blending Smart Money Concepts (SMC), ICT, supply/demand, VWAP, and Fibonacci arrays. This ensures only the highest-probability zones are highlighted for execution.
๐ข Buy-Side Liquidity Zones
Primary Buy Zone โ $3438 to $3446 (Golden Zone)
Why This Matters:
Daily demand + fresh 4H Order Block.
NY session low sweep + Asia accumulation base.
Fibonacci 61.8% retracement cluster.
Hidden RSI bullish divergence + anchored VWAP support.
Execution Plan:
Entry: $3440 โ $3444
SL: $3432
TP1: $3476
TP2: $3490
Strength Score: 9/10 (A+ Institutional)
Secondary Buy Zone โ $3410 to $3418
Why This Matters:
Deep daily demand retest.
Weekly VWAP lower band + 78.6% retracement.
Sweep of last weekโs low + $3415 round magnet.
Execution Plan:
Entry: $3412 โ $3416
SL: $3402
TP1: $3442
TP2: $3470
Strength Score: 6/10 (Medium Zone)
๐ด Sell-Side Liquidity Zones
Primary Sell Zone โ $3488 to $3496
Why This Matters:
4H supply aligned with 1H bearish OB.
Daily swing high liquidity resting at $3492.
Volume Profile POC + $3490 magnet.
Overbought RSI with bearish divergence on 1H.
Execution Plan:
Entry: $3490 โ $3494
SL: $3504
TP1: $3460
TP2: $3446
Strength Score: 8/10 (Strong Zone)
Secondary Sell Zone โ $3518 to $3526
Why This Matters:
Higher-timeframe supply continuation.
Liquidity sweep of quarterly highs near $3520.
Options expiry gamma cluster in $3520s.
Execution Plan:
Entry: $3520 โ $3524
SL: $3532
TP1: $3490
TP2: $3465
Strength Score: 5/10 (Medium Zone)
๐ Golden Zone of the Day
๐ Primary Buy Zone ($3438 โ $3446)
Best alignment across institutional confluences.
High conviction zone with clear liquidity sweep and macro alignment.
Execution favors long positioning with SL $3432 | TP1 $3476 | TP2 $3490.
๐ Final Bias
Longs favored on dips into $3440 Golden Zone.
Sells only valid if liquidity sweeps extend into $3490/$3520 zones.
Maintain disciplined risk with tight stops below liquidity pockets.
XAUUSD(1D) Testing Top Resistance|INSANE MOVE BREAKING ATH?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Structure | Trend | Key Reaction Zones
Gold is testing the major resistance zone near 3,500 ๐ด, where a possible triple top formation could trigger. Strong demand ๐ข remains around 3,315, with trendline support building higher lows.
Market Overview
XAUUSD has rallied strongly into the 3,500 resistance area, but history shows repeated rejections from this zone. If the triple top holds, sellers may drive price lower toward 3,435 and 3,315 demand. However, a daily close above 3,502 would invalidate the bearish setup and open space for higher continuation.
Key Scenarios
โ
Bullish Case ๐ โ Breakout above 3,502 confirms further upside.
๐ฏ Target 1: 3,550
๐ฏ Target 2: 3,600
โ Bearish Case ๐ โ Rejection from 3,500 zone leads to pullback.
๐ฏ Target 1: 3,435
๐ฏ Target 2: 3,315
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance ๐ด: 3,500 โ 3,550
Support ๐ข: 3,435 โ 3,315
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
# XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - 2# XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - August 2025
Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Analysis for Intraday and Swing Trading
Current Price: $3,448.12 USD (as of August 31, 2025, 16:03 UTC+4)
24H Change: +0.91%
Monthly Performance: +5.31%
YTD Performance: +37.77%
Market Sentiment: Bullish with Momentum Consolidation
---
Executive Summary
Gold has reached unprecedented heights, trading above $3,400 for the first time in history. Gold rose to $3,448.50 on August 29, 2025, up 0.91% from the previous day, with prices rising 5.31% over the past month and up 37.77% compared to the same time last year. The rally toward $3,450 has been driven by increasing Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets, creating a perfect storm for precious metals appreciation.
Key Technical Levels:
Immediate Support: $3,380 - $3,400 (Previous resistance turned support)
Critical Support: $3,300 - $3,320 (Major consolidation zone)
Key Resistance: $3,480 - $3,500 (Psychological barrier)
Extended Target: $3,550 - $3,600 (Next major resistance cluster)
---
Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Impact
The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate in the 4.25 to 4.5 percent range during its July 2025 meeting, maintaining a cautious stance amid evolving economic conditions. Fed interest rates are driving gold toward $3,500/oz with monetary policy impacts creating significant investment opportunities.
Macroeconomic Environment
Fed Funds Rate: 4.25-4.50% (unchanged but dovish signals emerging)
Inflation Expectations: Moderating, supporting rate cut narrative
Geopolitical Tensions: Elevated, providing safe-haven demand
Dollar Strength: Weakening on rate cut expectations
Gold's Fundamental Drivers
1. Monetary Policy Anticipation: Market pricing in multiple Fed rate cuts
2. Currency Debasement: Continued fiscal expansion supporting hard assets
3. Institutional Demand: Central bank buying and ETF inflows
4. Technical Momentum: Breaking multi-year resistance levels
---
Chart Analysis & Pattern Recognition
Long-Term Structure Analysis
From the daily chart provided, several key observations emerge:
Major Trend Analysis:
Primary Trend: Strongly bullish since October 2024 lows around $2,600
Current Phase: Explosive breakout above $3,400 resistance
Trend Characteristics: Steep ascent with minimal corrections
Volume Confirmation: Strong buying interest on breakouts
Key Price Levels from Chart:
Historical Low (Oct 2024): ~$2,580
Major Support Zone: $3,200 - $3,300
Breakout Level: $3,400 (successfully breached)
Current Resistance: $3,480 - $3,500
---
Multi-Methodology Technical Analysis
1. Candlestick Pattern Analysis
Recent Formation: Strong bullish momentum candles
Pattern: Consecutive higher highs and higher lows
Current Structure: Testing resistance with strong bodies
Volume Analysis: Increasing on advances, light on corrections
Momentum: Sustained buying pressure evident
2. Elliott Wave Theory Analysis
Wave Structure: Completing extended Wave 5 of larger degree
Primary Count: In Wave 5 of Cycle degree from 2020 lows
Current Position: Extended Wave 5 targeting $3,500-$3,600
Subwave Analysis: Minor wave 3 or 5 in progress
Fibonacci Extensions:
- 1.618 extension: $3,520
- 2.618 extension: $3,680
Invalidation Level: Break below $3,300 would reset count
3. Harmonic Pattern Recognition
Active Pattern: Bullish Deep Crab completion zone
Pattern Type: Large timeframe Deep Crab from 2020 lows
Completion Zone: $3,200-$3,400 (completed)
Current Phase: Impulse move following harmonic completion
Next Targets:
- Conservative: $3,550
- Extended: $3,750
4. Wyckoff Market Cycle Analysis
Current Phase: Markup Phase (Distribution Signs Monitored)
Background: Institutional accumulation completed below $3,200
Current Action: Strong markup with broad participation
Volume Characteristics: Healthy on advances, suspect on declines
Warning Signs: Watch for climactic volume above $3,500
Distribution Alerts: Any selling on strength above $3,480
5. W.D. Gann Analysis
Square of 9 Analysis:
Current Position: $3,448 aligns with 225ยฐ (critical angle)
Support Levels:
- $3,380 (216ยฐ)
- $3,317 (206ยฐ)
- $3,258 (196ยฐ)
Resistance Levels:
- $3,516 (234ยฐ)
- $3,587 (244ยฐ)
- $3,662 (253ยฐ)
Time Cycles:
Next Major Time Window: September 12-18, 2025
Gann Angles from August Low:
- 1x1 Angle: $3,420 (primary trend support)
- 2x1 Angle: $3,380 (secondary support)
- 1x2 Angle: $3,490 (resistance)
6. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis
Cloud Status: Price strongly above Kumo with expanding cloud
Tenkan-Sen (9): $3,425 (bullish signal above)
Kijun-Sen (26): $3,380 (strong support)
Senkou Span A: $3,400 (cloud top support)
Senkou Span B: $3,320 (major cloud support)
Chikou Span: Above price action confirming bullish momentum
Signal Interpretation: All Ichimoku elements align bullishly
---
Technical Indicators Analysis
Momentum Indicators
RSI (14-period) Analysis:
4H RSI: 68.5 (approaching overbought but still room)
Daily RSI: 72.3 (overbought but strong trend)
Weekly RSI: 78.2 (extended but not diverging)
Divergence Watch: No negative divergence observed
MACD Analysis:
Signal: Bullish crossover confirmed on all timeframes
Histogram: Expanding positive histogram
Momentum: Accelerating with no signs of weakness
Warning Level: Watch for divergence above $3,500
Volatility & Trend Strength
Bollinger Bands (20, 2):
Current Position: Upper band walk in progress
Band Configuration: Expanding bands indicating strong trend
Squeeze Analysis: Recent expansion from consolidation
Volatility: Increasing supporting continued move
Average True Range (ATR):
Daily ATR: $45-55 (elevated volatility)
Trend Strength: ATR expanding confirming strong trend
Stop Loss Guidance: Use 2x ATR for swing positions
Volume Analysis
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP):
Daily VWAP: $3,420 (key support)
Weekly VWAP: $3,350 (major support)
Volume Profile:
- High Volume Node: $3,200-$3,300
- Value Area High: $3,380
- Point of Control: $3,280
Volume Characteristics:
Accumulation Evidence: Higher volume on advances
Distribution Watch: Monitor volume above $3,480
Institutional Activity: Consistent buying support
Moving Average Configuration
Short-term Alignment:
EMA 21: $3,410 (immediate support)
EMA 50: $3,350 (intermediate support)
SMA 100: $3,280 (major trend support)
EMA 200: $3,180 (long-term trend support)
Golden Cross Status: All major averages in bullish alignment
---
Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy
Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H)
# Primary Bullish Scenario (70% Probability)
Long Entry Opportunities:
Entry 1: $3,420-$3,440 (VWAP support retest)
Entry 2: $3,380-$3,400 (previous resistance turned support)
Entry 3: $3,480+ breakout (momentum continuation)
Stop Loss Levels:
Aggressive: $3,380 (below key support)
Conservative: $3,350 (below VWAP support)
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $3,480 (immediate resistance)
TP2: $3,520 (Fibonacci extension)
TP3: $3,550 (psychological level)
Risk-Reward Analysis: 1:3.5 average across setups
# Timeframe-Specific Strategies:
5M/15M Charts:
Scalping Range: $3,420-$3,480
Entry Signals: Pullbacks to 21 EMA
Quick Targets: $20-30 moves
30M/1H Charts:
Swing Setup: Breakout above $3,450
Targets: $3,500-$3,520
Time Horizon: 2-4 hours
4H Charts:
Position Trading: Above $3,400 support
Major Target: $3,600
Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks
Swing Trading Strategy (Daily - Monthly)
# Long-Term Bullish Campaign
Position Building Strategy:
Accumulation Zone: $3,350-$3,420
Core Position: 60% of intended size
Add on Strength: 25% above $3,480
Final Addition: 15% on $3,500 breakout
Stop Loss Management:
Initial Stop: $3,280 (below monthly support)
Trailing Stop: Use 21-day EMA
Time Stop: Exit if no progress in 30 days
Target Progression:
Short-term: $3,550 (September target)
Medium-term: $3,700 (Q4 2025 target)
Long-term: $4,000 (2026 target)
Hedging and Risk Management
# Portfolio Hedging Strategies
Gold Miners Hedge:
- Long physical gold, short gold miners on ratio extremes
- Monitor GDX/GLD ratio for opportunities
Currency Hedge:
- DXY inverse correlation monitoring
- Consider EURUSD long positions as dollar hedge
Interest Rate Hedge:
- TLT positions to hedge rate cut scenarios
- Monitor 10-year yield for confirmation
---
Advanced Pattern Recognition
Bull Trap Analysis
Potential Bull Trap Zones:
Level 1: $3,500-$3,520 (psychological resistance)
Level 2: $3,600-$3,650 (major Fibonacci cluster)
Warning Signs:
- Volume divergence on new highs
- RSI negative divergence
- Increased volatility without progress
Trap Avoidance:
- Wait for volume confirmation on breakouts
- Use smaller position sizes near resistance
- Implement tight stops above $3,520
Bear Trap Opportunities
Bear Trap Setup Levels:
Primary: $3,380-$3,400 (false breakdown)
Secondary: $3,300-$3,320 (major support test)
Entry Strategy: Quick recovery above breakdown level
Target: Previous highs plus 50%
---
Sector Rotation and Correlation Analysis
Gold Mining Stocks Analysis
GDX/GLD Ratio: Currently extended, expect compression
Individual Miners:
Barrick Gold (GOLD): Leverage play on gold upside
Newmont (NEM): Defensive gold exposure
Strategy: Rotate from physical to miners on ratio extremes
Currency Correlations
USD Index (DXY): Strong negative correlation maintained
EURUSD: Positive correlation with gold strengthening
JPYUSD: Safe haven competition dynamic
Commodity Complex
Silver (XAGUSD): Lagging gold, potential catch-up trade
Copper: Industrial demand indicator watch
Oil: Inflation correlation monitoring
---
Economic Calendar Impact Analysis
High-Impact Events (September 2025)
September 2-6, 2025:
Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: ADP Employment Change
Thursday: US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls (Critical)
Fed Related Events:
September 12: Core CPI Data
September 18: FOMC Meeting Minutes
September 20: Fed Officials Speeches
Trading Approach Around Events:
- Reduce positions 2 hours before NFP
- Increase hedging before FOMC minutes
- Use options for event-driven strategies
---
Scenario Planning & Contingency Analysis
Scenario 1: Fed Cuts Aggressively (40% Probability)
Trigger: 50bp rate cut in September
Gold Target: $3,700-$3,800
Strategy: Maximum long exposure
Timeline: 30-45 days
Scenario 2: Fed Remains Hawkish (25% Probability)
Trigger: No rate cuts, hawkish rhetoric
Gold Target: $3,100-$3,200 retracement
Strategy: Defensive positioning, reduce leverage
Timeline: 2-3 weeks
Scenario 3: Market Crisis/Risk-Off (20% Probability)
Trigger: Geopolitical escalation or financial crisis
Gold Target: $3,800-$4,000 (crisis high)
Strategy: Maximum safe-haven positioning
Timeline: Immediate
Scenario 4: Inflation Resurgence (15% Probability)
Trigger: Unexpected inflation spike
Gold Target: $3,600-$3,900
Strategy: Inflation hedge positioning
Timeline: 45-60 days
---
Options and Derivatives Strategy
Options Strategies for Gold Exposure
Bull Call Spreads:
Structure: Long $3,400 calls, short $3,500 calls
Expiration: 30-45 days
Max Profit: Limited but defined
Risk: Premium paid
Protective Puts:
Strike: $3,300 (below major support)
Expiration: Monthly
Purpose: Portfolio insurance
Cost: 1-2% of position value
ETF and Futures Considerations
Physical Gold ETFs:
GLD: Largest, most liquid
IAU: Lower expense ratio
SGOL: Swiss storage option
Gold Futures:
GC Contracts: Direct price exposure
Micro Gold: Smaller position sizing
Margin Requirements: Monitor closely
---
Technical Rating & Probability Assessment
Overall Technical Rating: STRONG BUY
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Timeframe Ratings:
Intraday (1H-4H): BUY (85% bullish)
Short-term (Daily): STRONG BUY (90% bullish)
Medium-term (Weekly): STRONG BUY (85% bullish)
Long-term (Monthly): BUY (75% bullish)
Key Bullish Catalysts:
1. Technical Breakout: Clean break above $3,400 resistance
2. Fed Policy: Rate cut expectations building
3. Momentum: All timeframes aligned bullishly
4. Volume: Confirming accumulation patterns
Bearish Risk Factors:
1. Overextension: RSI levels stretched on weekly charts
2. Fed Hawkishness: Potential policy surprise
3. Dollar Strength: DXY recovery could pressure gold
4. Profit Taking: Natural at psychological $3,500 level
---
Weekly Trading Plan & Execution
Week of September 2-6, 2025
# Monday-Tuesday: Consolidation Expected
Strategy: Accumulate on dips to $3,420-$3,440
Targets: $3,480 resistance test
Risk Management: Tight stops below $3,400
# Wednesday-Thursday: Event Risk Management
Strategy: Reduce leverage ahead of economic data
Focus: Defensive positioning pre-NFP
Opportunity: Post-event volatility trades
# Friday: NFP Reaction Strategy
Bullish NFP: Sell the news, expect pullback
Bearish NFP: Add to long positions aggressively
Neutral NFP: Continue trend-following approach
Position Sizing Recommendations
Conservative: 2-3% portfolio allocation
Moderate: 5-7% portfolio allocation
Aggressive: 8-12% portfolio allocation
Risk per Trade: Maximum 1% of total capital
---
Long-Term Investment Thesis
Secular Bull Market Drivers
Monetary Debasement: Continued fiat currency depreciation
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Ongoing global tensions
Central Bank Demand: Record official sector purchases
Supply Constraints: Limited new mine development
Price Targets by Timeline
Q4 2025: $3,600-$3,800
Q1 2026: $3,800-$4,200
End 2026: $4,200-$4,800
2027-2028: $5,000+ potential
Investment Allocation Strategy
Core Holdings: 40% physical gold/ETFs
Trading Position: 30% futures/options
Mining Exposure: 20% quality miners
Cash Reserve: 10% for opportunities
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Risk Disclaimers and Considerations
Market Risks
Volatility Risk: Gold can experience sharp moves
Liquidity Risk: Reduced liquidity during market stress
Currency Risk: USD movements affect returns
Storage Risk: Physical gold storage considerations
Regulatory and Tax Implications
Tax Treatment: Different rules for physical vs. paper gold
Reporting Requirements: Large position disclosure rules
Regulatory Changes: Potential trading restrictions
Technical Analysis Limitations
Pattern Failure: Technical patterns can fail
Black Swan Events: Unexpected market shocks
Model Risk: Over-reliance on historical patterns
Execution Risk: Slippage and timing issues
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Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
Gold's technical picture presents one of the most compelling bullish setups in recent history. Gold closed August with a strong daily close in premium territory, pressing into the 3460โ3480 supply zone, with bulls maintaining control of momentum as September opens.
Immediate Action Items:
1. Accumulate Positions: Use any dip to $3,400-$3,420 as buying opportunity
2. Manage Risk: Implement proper position sizing and stop losses
3. Monitor Fed Policy: Watch for dovish signals supporting further upside
4. Prepare for Breakout: Position for potential move to $3,550-$3,600
Key Success Factors:
Discipline: Stick to predetermined risk management rules
Patience: Allow patterns to develop fully
Flexibility: Adapt to changing market conditions
Diversification: Use multiple gold investment vehicles
The confluence of technical, fundamental, and sentiment factors creates a rare alignment supporting significantly higher gold prices. While short-term volatility is expected, the medium to long-term outlook remains decidedly bullish.
Final Rating: STRONG BUY with careful risk management
XAUUSD โ Wave 1 Completed, Is the Major Wave 3 About to Begin?Higher Timeframe Outlook (Daily/Weekly)
As highlighted in the previous analysis, price has been unfolding exactly in line with our higher timeframe scenario, moving within wave (3). This confirms that the bullish structure remains intact.
๐ H4 Analysis
On the 4H chart, price appears to be completing wave (1) of (3).
At this point, two possible scenarios for wave (2) are on the table:
1๏ธโฃ Price Correction: A deeper retracement with lower price levels.
2๏ธโฃ Time Correction: A sideways consolidation instead of a sharp decline.
We are waiting for the market to progress a bit further in order to confirm whether the correction will be price-based or time-based. Once clarified, we can identify the best buying opportunities for the continuation of the larger wave (3) rally.
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๐ Who am I?
I'm Mahdi, a prop firm trader with 7+ years of experience in technical analysis, mainly focusing on Smart Money Concepts and Elliott Wave theory.
I specialize in delivering high-quality trading signals, market insights, and educational content tailored for serious traders and investors.
๐ My Tools: SMC, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, Liquidity Grabs, Order Blocks
๐ผ Prop Challenge Passed: Yes | Funded Account: In Progress
๐ Follow for consistent updates and trading insights.
XAUUSD Professional OutlookXAUUSD Professional Outlook
Gold has been carving out a strong bullish structure, showing resilience after multiple liquidity sweeps and rejections from deeper zones. The chart indicates that buyers continue to dominate, with price currently pressing toward a critical resistance region.
๐น Key Observations
Structure Alignment
The market has successfully defended every higher low, proving the strength of buyers.
Recent momentum confirms that demand zones are being respected while supply zones are gradually weakening.
Support & Demand Control
3320 โ 3330 stands as a major structural support, where liquidity was swept and buyers re-entered aggressively.
Current buying zone around 3380 โ 3400 is the short-term level where fresh orders may accumulate before continuation.
Resistance in Focus
The resistance block around 3415 โ 3440 is the immediate test.
A rejection here could trigger a controlled pullback, but the probability favors a bullish breakout given the ongoing higher-low pattern.
Liquidity Dynamics
Smart money has already cleared liquidity below the July swing.
Market is now targeting liquidity pockets above, aligning with a push toward the 3440+ region.
๐ฏ Trading Scenarios
Bullish Case (Higher Probability)
Buy retracement toward 3380 โ 3400, with upside targets at 3440 and extended 3480 โ 3500 if breakout occurs.
Bearish Risk Case
Failure to hold above 3380 could push price back into 3320 demand, where the larger bullish thesis would be tested.
๐ Final Note
Gold is operating in a controlled bullish cycle with momentum favoring buyers. As long as 3320 holds firm, dips remain buying opportunities, and the path of least resistance is upward. The upcoming test at 3440 will be decisive for either a strong continuation or a temporary pullback
Gold (XAU/USD) โ 2H โ Inducement & HTM OBGold (XAU/USD) โ 2H โ Inducement & HTM OB
๐น Market Structure
The chart shows a potential inducement pattern above liquidity levels, designed to trap early buyers before the real move.
Price has created a fake bullish impulse (aโbโcโdโe), suggesting exhaustion and a setup for downside liquidity grab.
The liquidity above 3,416 has been taken, aligning with inducement theory.
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๐น Inducement & Liquidity
After inducement, price is expected to sweep liquidity resting around the 3,400 โ 3,390 area.
This liquidity grab could provide momentum toward the HTM Order Block (OB) zone around 3,370 โ 3,365.
That zone is the higher-probability demand area where smart money may step in.
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๐น HTM Order Block (OB)
The HTM OB aligns with strong confluence:
Previous demand zone
Overlapping liquidity pool
Technical retracement structure
Once price taps this level, a bullish reversal toward higher levels becomes probable.
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๐น Outlook & Trading Plan
Bearish short-term: Expect continuation to the downside after inducement, targeting 3,390 โ 3,370.
Bullish mid-term: From HTM OB (3,370 โ 3,365), potential rebound upward toward 3,416+.
Invalidation: If price closes strong above 3,430, the bearish inducement setup is invalid.
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โ
Bias: Bearish into HTM OB โ Bullish from demand zone
๐ฏ Targets: 3,390 โ 3,370 โ 3,416+
โ Invalidation: Close above 3,430
Divergence has appeared at H4 โ TOP IS ABOUT TO BE FORMEDGold SMC Daily Plan โ 28/08
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Market Context (SMC perspective):
โข Price is currently trading around 3395โ3396 after an impulsive bullish run and showing early bearish divergence on H4, signaling a potential short-term top.
โข Key resistance sits at 3400 โ a clean break above could sweep liquidity towards 342xโ343x, retesting old ATH.
โข If 3370 support breaks, price could retrace deeper into the 335x BUY zone for a strong bullish setup.
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Key Levels:
โข Resistance: 3396โ3400 (Sell Zone), 342xโ343x (liquidity sweep area)
โข Support: 3370, 3354โ3352 (Buy Zone), 3325 (SL for buys)
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SMC Zones & Liquidity Pools:
โข BUY ZONE 1: 3354โ3352 (below liquidity sweep under 3370)
o SL: 3347
o TP: 3365 โ 3375 โ 3385 โ 3395 โ 3400+
โข BUY ZONE 2: 3380 โ 3382
o SL: 3374
o TP: 3390 โ 3400 โ 3415 โ3430 โ 3450+
โข SELL ZONE: 3408 - 3410 (above recent high)
o SL: 3416
o TP: 3390 โ 3380 โ 3375 โ 3360
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Plan & Scenarios:
1. Sell Scenario (Primary Bias โ Divergence Play):
o Wait for liquidity grab above 3396โ3399 (sweep into resistance)
o Enter short with SL above 3403
o Scale out profits at 3390โ3380โ3375; leave runner targeting 3360 if support breaks
2. Buy Scenario (Counter Play โ Break & Retest):
o If price dips into 3354โ3352 buy zone, look for bullish reaction (choch / BOS on lower TF)
o Enter long with SL below 3347
o Target 3365โ3375โ3385โ3395โ3400+
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Confluence:
โข H4 bearish divergence indicating exhaustion at top
โข Untapped liquidity zones above 3396 and below 3370
โข FVG and imbalance areas aligning with the 335x buy zone