GOLD / XAUUSD โ DAILY PLAN (Oct 17, 2025)๐งญ MARKET CONTEXT
Main timeframe: M30 / H1
Current structure remains bullish, forming clear HH โ HL sequences.
After a strong rally, price is now in a retracement phase toward a nearby demand zone aligned with the ascending trendline.
No sign of structure break yet (no BOS below the previous HL).
๐ PRIMARY SCENARIO (BUY SETUP)
โค Entry Zone 1:
BUY GOLD 4280 โ 4278
Stop Loss: 4275
Target 1: 4335
Target 2: 4350 (new HH)
Reason: This is a Bullish Order Block (OB) and BOS retest zone, aligned with the rising trendline.
Expecting a strong bullish reaction (rejection candle or engulfing bar) before triggering the buy limit.
โค Entry Zone 2 (CP Setup โ Confirmation Point)
BUY 4247 โ 4245
Stop Loss: 4239
Target: 4300 / 4330 / 4350
Reason: This is the final demand zone near the main trendline, confluence of prior BOS + SSS (Structure Shift Support).
If price breaks below 4280 without reaction, patiently wait for confirmation around CP zone.
โ ๏ธ ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (STRUCTURE FAILURE)
If price closes below 4235 on M30, the bullish structure is invalidated.
โ The buy plan is canceled โ wait for a pullback sell setup from 4280โ4300 resistance.
If the buy stop loss is hit at 4239, monitor 4200 zone as the next H4 demand area.
Trade ideas
Gold price analysis October 17GOLD UPDATE โ The uptrend shows no signs of stopping
The gold market is in the most โbreathableโ phase for the Buyers โ almost every BUY strategy has brought profits overnight. The bullish momentum remains strong, showing that money continues to flow into this precious metal.
The next target that Gold is aiming for is around 4450, and any correction can be seen as a โgoldenโ opportunity to join the main trend.
๐ Trading strategy:
BUY Trigger: when a price rejection signal appears at the support zones 4285 โ 4242 โ 4216
๐ฏ Target: 4450
๐ In this context, following the Buyers is still the only reasonable option. Observe the price reaction around the support zones and just โpress the BUY buttonโ when the signal appears.
Gold breaks through again. Watch for entry opportunities.Information Summary:
Gold continued its upward trend in early Asian trading on Friday, reaching a new all-time high of 4,380. Trade tensions, the ongoing US government shutdown, and bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut all fueled gold's gains. Furthermore, a plunge in US bank stocks dragged down US stocks, fueling risk aversion that further accelerated gold's upward momentum.
Concerns about the credit quality of the US economy and escalating friction over tariffs have also boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Furthermore, the renewed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the US supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, has heightened gold's safe-haven appeal. In an era of heightened global uncertainty, gold remains an asset worth watching. Traders are advised to closely monitor market expectations for the Federal Reserve meeting, news related to the international trade situation, and geopolitical developments.
Market Analysis:
Gold is hitting new highs daily. Recently, I've been reminding everyone to buy on dips. The bull market remains strong. On Thursday, the price surged by $177, reaching a high of 4380. If the market continues to break through 4400, the next target will be 4450.
Gold bulls remain firmly in control, extending their record-breaking rally with no signs of fatigue. The 1-hour chart shows no significant pullbacks. In the short term, gold trading above 4300 is considered strong. Continue buying gold even if it retreats. Patiently wait for opportunities.
Trading strategy:
Short-term gold long position at 4310-4315, stop loss at 4300, profit range at 4370-4390;
Key points:
First support level: 4335, second support level: 4310, third support level: 4300
First resistance level: 4380, second resistance level: 4400, third resistance level: 4428
Gold trading strategy | October 16-17โ
From the 4-hour chart:
Gold has continued to post multiple bullish candles, reaching a high of 4298.55. The price remains near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 maintaining a standard bullish alignment โ confirming that the medium-term uptrend remains strong.
However, short-term volatility has increased, and gold is expected to consolidate or slightly retrace within the 4250โ4300 range, with key support at MA10 (around 4229).
The Bollinger Bands continue to widen upward, with the upper band near 4298 and the middle band around 4184. The price is currently trading near the upper band, showing that bulls are dominant, but the short-term deviation is large, suggesting a potential technical pullback at any time.
โ
From the 1-hour chart:
After surging to 4298.55, gold experienced a slight pullback and is now fluctuating between 4280โ4295. MA5 and MA10 have flattened, indicating that short-term momentum is weakening, while MA10 (around 4266) serves as an important short-term support.
The bullish momentum has slowed, and consolidation is increasing. Gold is likely to oscillate within the 4260โ4300 range. If it fails to break above 4300 decisively, a short-term correction could follow.
๐ด Resistance Levels: 4298โ4305 / 4325โ4335 / 4350
๐ข Support Levels: 4255โ4265 / 4225โ4235 / 4185
โ
Trading Strategy Reference:
๐ฐ If gold pulls back to the 4255โ4265 area and holds, consider entering long positions in batches.
๐ฏ Targets: 4290 / 4300
๐ฐ If gold rises again to the 4295โ4305 area and faces resistance, consider a light short position.
๐ฏ Targets: 4265 / 4255
๐ฅTrading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
XAUUSD๐ก Gold Weekly Outlook
On the weekly chart, gold is still showing strong bullish momentum โ itโs only been going up, and in the long term, I still believe weโre heading toward $5,000/oz.
But remember: this rally isnโt happening in a vacuum. The USโChina geopolitical tension is one of the main engines behind goldโs surge. With Washington and Beijing constantly at odds โ from trade policies and tech restrictions to military posturing in the Pacific โ global investors are looking for safety. Every time thereโs uncertainty about tariffs, the yuan, or global supply chains, gold benefits as a safe-haven asset.
That said, nothing goes up forever. Markets love to overextend before correcting. When this pullback comes, it could be sharp and deep, as many short-term speculators will take profit all at once.
So for now: trend is your friend โ but keep an eye on the macro headlines, because the next big dip will probably come from a major geopolitical cooling-off or a sudden USD rebound.
Gold (XAUUSD) Long Idea: Scaling Into a Bullish TrendHello TradingView Community,
This post outlines a bullish continuation strategy on the Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) pair, based on the 15-minute timeframe. The chart illustrates a method of scaling into a strong uptrend.
Technical Analysis:
The chart is currently in a powerful uptrend, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The strategy employed here is to identify key resistance levels, wait for a decisive breakout, and then enter a long position on the retest of that former resistance as new support.
We can see this pattern has been successfully applied at multiple levels:
A breakout above $3,983.40.
A subsequent breakout above $4,103.92.
Each breakout was followed by a successful retest, providing opportunities to add to a long position, or "pyramid" into the trend.
Current Trade Setup:
The most recent setup is based on the breakout above the $4,226.14 level. The price has pushed above this former resistance, and the idea is to look for another long entry on a pullback to this new support zone.
The long position tool on the chart visualizes this latest trade plan:
Entry: Approximately $4,226.14 (at the retest of the new support).
Stop Loss: $4,161.08 (placed below the key support structure to invalidate the idea if the level fails to hold).
Take Profit: $4,326.62 (targeting a new higher high in the trend).
This setup provides a structured plan to continue capitalizing on the existing bullish momentum.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading commodities involves significant risk. Please conduct your own due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
GOLD: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD togetherโบ๏ธ
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 4,260.94 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 4,285.09.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
โค๏ธSending you lots of Love and Hugsโค๏ธ
BEST BUY ZONE The bulls are still in control but it looks like we are going to see some up and down movement which could lead to a move in any direction but bullish is still the favorable, it looks like price is not coming down any time soon but if it comes down to the rectangular block around 4208 today or tomorrow try and target a buy at 4208-04, but if incase it fails and closes below 4190 then we will look for sells .
#XAUUSD LONG Setup
A clear reversal pattern is forming on the chart, suggesting a potential move to the upside.
Trade Idea:
ยท Direction: Long
ยท Target: 30-50 Pips
ยท Key Level: Respecting support at ~4202 - 4185
Always use a stop loss and proper risk management. #Gold is reacting to key levels, and we're following the momentum.
#Trading #Forex #XAUUSD #GoldTrading #SwingTrading #TradingView #Finance
XAUMO โ GOLD (XAUUSD) | Institutional Daily ๐ EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY โ NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
All times Africa/Cairo (+03:00)
๐ก YALLA XAUMO โ GOLD (XAUUSD) | Institutional Daily โ COMPREHENSIVE (Trader Training Edition)
Version: Protocol 2025 (Approved) | Report time: Thu, 16 Oct 2025 โ 06:40
Spot ref: 4,235.38 (+0.68%) | GC1: 4,253.3 | GC2: 4,284.5 โ Term spread +0.73% (Contango)
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
1) SYNOPSIS โ Whatโs happening today?
โข Gold trades above the 4.22xโ4.24x band with a tactical bullish tilt.
โข DXY 98.528 (โ0.14%), VIX 20.63 (โ0.82%) โ softer USD and calmer vol favor disciplined buy-the-dip, not chasing highs.
โข Pivot for the day: 4,229โ4,233 and 4,241.9.
๐ EDU Notes: Wait for two consecutive 15-min closes above 4,241.9 to confirm control. On dips, study longs near 4,229โ4,233 (POC/VWAP).
๐ Takeaway โ Bullish while above 4,229; loss of 4,219 weakens the setup.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
2) MEGABAR by timeframe (15m / 1h / 4h / Daily)
โข 15m: Step-up advance; Uploading 4,229โ4,233 & 4,206โ4,215; Offloading 4,236โ4,249; RVOL โ 1.0
โข 1h: Gradual loading above 4,229 with KS support; stage targets 4,249/4,253
โข 4h: Conditional up-trend above 4.22x; clean break below 4,206 forces reassessment
โข Daily: Gentle positive channel
๐ EDU: When loading % fades on 15m/1h, expect a VWAP pullback then a new try.
๐ Takeaway โ Up-bias persists while VWAP slopes up and price holds >4,229.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
3) Upcoming Macro (Cairo time)
โข 15:30 โ US Initial Jobless Claims (weekly, high impact). :contentReference {index=0}
โข 15:30 โ US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (high impact). :contentReference {index=1}
โข 15:30 โ US Producer Price Index (Sep) (high impact). :contentReference {index=2}
โข 16:15 โ US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (medium). :contentReference {index=3}
โข 17:00 โ US NAHB Housing Market Index (medium). :contentReference {index=4}
โ ๏ธ Notes: Yesterdayโs Fed Beige Book said activity โlittle changedโ with rising signs of strain; Governor Stephen Miran flagged trade-tension risks and argued for faster cuts โ both heighten goldโs sensitivity to todayโs prints. :contentReference {index=5}
๐ Takeaway โ Key time node at 15:30 (claims + Philly + PPI cluster).
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
4) Cross-Asset read
โข EURUSD 1.1663 (+0.14%) โข USDJPY 150.86 (โ0.11%) โข USDCNH 7.1290 (+0.03%)
โข SPX 6,671.07 (+0.40%) โข NASDAQ 24,752.3 (โ0.20%) โข VIX 20.63 (โ0.82%)
๐ Soft USD + calmer vol โ prefer disciplined dip-buys, avoid chasing highs.
๐ Takeaway โ Macro tone supports โpullback then resumeโ.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
5) GC Futures Structure
โข GC1 4,253.3 โข GC2 4,284.5 โ Contango +0.73%
๐ Contango = stable upward curve; favors orderly pullbacks over disorderly squeezes.
๐ Takeaway โ Futures curve aligned with spot; backdrop constructive.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
6) Volume Footprint
โข Buy zones: 4,229โ4,233 (value/POC) and 4,206โ4,215 (Uploading).
โข Sell zones: 4,236โ4,249 (staged Offloading) with intraday high print 4,241.99.
๐ Positive delta inside 4,229โ4,233 = value reload.
๐ Takeaway โ Demand 4,229โ4,233 / Supply 4,236โ4,249.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
7) Value Map (VAL / POC / VAH / VWAP)
VAL ~4,206โ4.21x โข POC ~4,229โ4,233 โข VAH ~4,241โ4,249 โข VWAP ~4.23x
๐ Above POC/VWAP = buyers in control; below = caution until delta flips.
๐ Takeaway โ Value rising gradually, centered near 4.23x.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
8) Fibonacci (current leg)
Working leg: 4,206 โ 4,241.99
38.2% โ 4,229 โข 50% โ 4,224 โข 61.8% โ 4,219 โข 100% = 4,241.99
๐ โGolden zoneโ 4,219โ4,229; holding with positive delta unlocks 4,243/4,249.
๐ Takeaway โ Watch 4,229 as decision axis.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
9) Ichimoku quick regime
โข Daily: mild positive above cloud elements
โข 4h: conditional up above 4.22x
โข 1h: TK up; KS supportive
โข 15m: TK up; Chikou nearly free; aligned with VWAP
๐ Takeaway โ Multi-TF alignment modestly bullish; 15m for execution.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
10) Schabacker (classical context)
โข Accumulation band above 4.22x with stepping highs near 4,241.9.
โข No confirmed top unless 4,241.9 fails and 4,229 closes lost.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
11) Liquidity & Gates
โข Gates: 4,229 โ 4,241.9 โ 4,249 โ 4,253 โ 4,265
โข Fast lanes: 4,236โ4,241.9 and 4,249โ4,253
๐ Takeaway โ 4,241.9 = expansion trigger; 4,229 = daily decision line.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
12) XAUMO Trend Board (Confidence %)
15m: 66% โข 1h: 64% โข 4h: 62% โข Daily: 60% โ Composite โ 64%
๐ Confidence lifts with RVOL โฅ 1.0 and closes > 4,241.9.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
13) Session Map
โข Asia: organized loading from value.
โข London: Buy-the-Dip above 4,229 targeting 4,243/4,249/4,253.
โข New York (later): continuation only if highs hold above 4,253.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
14) MTF Retracement Lab (EDU)
Anchors: VWAP ~4.23x โข POC 4,229โ4,233 โข VAL 4,206โ4.21x โข VAH 4,241โ4,249
A) Pullback Long
โข Entry: 4,229โ4,233 | SL: 4,219 | TP: 4,243 โ 4,249 โ 4,253
โข Why: POC/VWAP confluence + positive delta + steady contango.
B) VWAP Touch Scalps
โข Entry: 4,231โ4,233 | SL: 4,225 | TP: 4,241 โ 4,246
โข Why: touch-retrieve-impulse pattern with short-term momentum.
C) Educational Counter-fade from supply
โข Entry: 4,246โ4,249 | SL: 4,258 | TP: 4,241 โ 4,233 โ 4,229
โข Why: failed breakout inside staged offloading.
D) Break & Hold Continuation
โข Condition: hold > 4,253 | SL: 4,238 | TP: 4,265 โ 4,273
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
15) Execution & Discipline (EDU)
โ
Checklist: two 15m closes above gate โข RVOL present โข positive delta โข no high-impact data imminent โข pre-defined SL.
โ๏ธ Risk: โค1.0โ1.5%/trade โข Max 3 trades/session โข No chasing highs without a pullback.
๐ Takeaway โ Protect capital; focus on structured pullbacks.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
๐ Final Take
As long as price holds >4,229, the bullish path targets 4,243 โ 4,249 โ 4,253.
A 15m close <4,219 invalidates and reopens 4,206.
Double top on hourly chart, beware of callback riskAccording to the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Trump will interview 3-4 candidates for Federal Reserve Chairman after Thanksgiving, and emphasized that "open mind" is a key condition. But this move seems to be affecting market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, coupled with the ongoing US government shutdown and the trade war between China and the United States. There is still a lot of positive information in the market. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the bullish trend of gold remains unchanged.
However, gold in the U.S. market has continued to fluctuate and wash out. Judging from the hourly chart, there are signs of forming a double top, so we still need to be vigilant about potential callback threats in the evening. Pay attention to the short-term resistance of 4200-4210 on the upside. If gold cannot break through this resistance range, it will fall further and test the support again. Below, watch the 4H MA10 moving average, which also marks the low of the afternoon's pullback near 4164. If this level breaks, gold will test the strong support level of 4140.
Tonight trading will continue to focus on buying on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. Especially those brothers who are not sure about the current market can wait patiently for a pullback to a low level before participating in long transactions. If you want to quickly recover losses or realize profits, you can also contact me for more professional help.
For more real-time updates, please visit the professional personal homepage information
OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis โ October 15, 2025Trend: Strong Bullish Momentum Continues
Overview:
Gold has extended its uptrend, following a clear ascending channel on the H1 timeframe. Price action continues to respect both the dynamic trendline and key structural supports. Despite a temporary pullback from the recent high, bullish structure remains intact as long as price holds above 4,090 โ 4,100 USD.
This behavior reflects a healthy โimpulseโcorrectionโcontinuationโ pattern often seen in strong bull trends.
Technical Breakdown:
Main Support Levels:
โข 4,090 โ 4,100 โ Key intraday support
โข 4,010 โ 3,960 โ Deeper retracement zone
โข 3,910 โ 3,850 โ Strong structural support
โข 3,790 โ 3,730 โ Major demand zone
Resistance Zone:
โข 4,250 โ 4,300 โ Next upside target area
EMA alignment (EMA20 > EMA50) confirms ongoing bullish strength, while RSI remains above the 55 level, showing strong momentum but not yet in extreme overbought conditions.
Trading Plan (Short-Term Focus):
Scenario 1 โ Buy the Dip (Main Bias):
Buy Zone: 4,090 โ 4,100
Stop-Loss: Below 4,070
Take-Profit: 4,230 โ 4,250 โ 4,300
This setup follows the continuation pattern after a minor retest of the ascending trendline.
Scenario 2 โ Breakout Confirmation:
Wait for a clean break and retest above 4,220
Target the next psychological zone near 4,300 โ 4,350
Market Outlook:
The bullish trend remains dominant, supported by both technical structure and market sentiment favoring gold as a safe-haven asset. Unless the 4,090 level breaks decisively, buyers will likely maintain control in the short to mid-term.
Save this analysis if you find it helpful, and follow for more daily trade setups and strategic updates on XAU/USD.
XAUUSD: Scalp & Swing Setup (Clear and direct)
๐ฏ SCALP TARGET: 20 Pips
ยท Quick momentum play on the lower timeframes.
ยท ๐ฏ SWING TARGET: 100+ Pips
ยท A larger move targeting the next key resistance on the 4H/Daily chart.
ยท ๐ RISK MANAGEMENT:
ยท A stop loss is crucial. Place it logically below the recent structure. (Always manage your risk!).
Checklist Before Entry:
โ
Price respects the support zone.
โ
Momentum confirms the move.
โ
Overall market context (DXY, etc.) is considered.
Join the Conversation:
What's your take on Gold? Bullish or Bearish? Let me know in the comments!
---
Follow for more structured trade ideas.
Ready to copy these trades?
#XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #Forex #TradingSetup #SwingTrading #Scalping #TechnicalAnalysis #Finance #myshare_finance
Wed 15 Oct - Market Update!ATH again!
The market pushed up to new highs & potentially higher.
Expecting retracement lower before eventually pushing in the New York session with volume to the @4250-4275 psychological levels.
#1 Market and price action already indicate the direction.
#2 Support zone created - indicating buyers are strong.
#3 Waiting for a pullback to collect orders & liquidity for then push up again.
Let's see how London Session plays out!
Gold Hits New All-Time Highโ The Bullish Wave Isnโt Over Yet๐ Market Overview
Gold prices continued to surge during the Asian and early European sessions today, officially reaching a new all-time high at $4,190/oz.
The main drivers are expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may start cutting interest rates earlier than expected, along with strong safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Falling U.S. bond yields and a weaker U.S. dollar have further reinforced goldโs bullish momentum, pushing the metal beyond resistance levels once considered โunbreakable.โ
๐ Technical Analysis
โข Main Trend: Strong bullish momentum; price remains above all short- and mid-term EMAs (EMA20, EMA50, EMA100).
โข Key Resistance: 4190 (new high), 4210, 4250.
โข Short-Term Support: 4168, 4150, 4125.
โข RSI (H1/H4): Staying in the overbought zone (> 60) with no clear bearish divergence yet.
โข Volume: Increasing alongside breakout โ confirming genuine buying power from the market.
๐ก Outlook
Gold is currently in a powerful breakout phase, and the new record at 4190 could just be the start of another bullish leg if the 4168โ4150 zone holds firm.
However, a short-term technical pullback remains possible as RSI readings stay elevated.
Traders should prioritize buy-on-dip strategies and avoid FOMO entries at highs without confirmation signals.
๐ฏ Trading Plan
๐บ BUY XAU/USD : 4168โ4165
๐ฏ TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
๐ SL: 4162
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 10/15/2025Gold has been very interesting recently. It didn't give any chance for buying opportunities as it didn't retrace much. However, every day it always dropped from high, giving perfect intraday selling opportunities.
Right now it has entered my monthly selling zone. I will sell from around 4200 for today and target 4135.
GOLD: Short-term testing of the 4080 support levelRecently, due to the ongoing deadlock between the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties, the government has remained in a shutdown. Concerns over economic downturn have intensified, while expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year have continued to rise. Additionally, trade frictions have escalated againโall these factors have driven gold prices to keep surging, making gold once again the darling of the global economy.
However, in the afternoon, as Trump repeatedly emphasized peace in the Middle East, gold experienced a sharp drop of nearly $90 after hitting the all-time high around the 4179 level. It then rebounded to a high of around 4145, and a platform resistance has formed at this level in the short term. Currently, long-position traders are jittery at high levels. For short-term trading, the risks and profits for both long and short positions are basically balanced.
We also reminded everyone in the afternoon to exit long positions in a timely manner, and any level above 4130 is a good entry point for short positions. Gold is now testing the support around the 4080 mark again. For short-term trades, it is advisable to go short on rebounds; for medium-to-long-term positions, we still expect gold to continue surging to new all-time highs after a pullback.
๐
Sell 4120 - 4125 TP 4100 - 4080 SL 4130
Buy 4075 - 4080 TP 4090 - 4100 SL 4070
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable referenceโdonโt hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
Can Gold Break to New Highs on October 14th?
Overall Assessment: Gold is operating within a strong bullish trend, with fundamentals and technicals aligning in a positive outlook. However, caution is warranted due to technically severe overbought conditions and the accumulation of top divergence, which pose a risk of a deep correction. Trading should primarily follow the trend with long positions, but strict control over position sizing and risk is essential.
I. Core Driving Factors (Fundamentals)
Safe-Haven Demand Support:
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating international conflicts continue to drive safe-haven capital flows into gold.
Economic Uncertainty: Market concerns about a potential prolonged US government shutdown are increasing safe-haven demand for gold.
Favorable Monetary Policy:
Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The market widely anticipates the Fed will implement two more rate cuts this year, which weighs on the US Dollar and significantly benefits non-yielding assets like gold.
Potential Risks (Limiting Upside):
Shift in Risk Sentiment: Any positive news regarding trade relations could temporarily boost market risk appetite, potentially curbing gold's rise.
Technical Overbought Conditions: After a sustained sharp rally, the gold price has deviated significantly from conventional technical tracks, creating a risk of a sudden pullback due to substantial profit-taking.
II. Key Technical Levels (Technicals)
Current Trend: Extremely strong bullish trend. Eight consecutive weekly gains, with moving averages in a perfect bullish alignment.
Intraday Key Support:
First Support: 4080 - 4070 area (short-term bull-bear dividing line)
Second Support: Around 4025 (the low touched during the early Asian session on Monday; this level should not be broken in a strong trend)
Critical Trend Level: 3900 (as long as this level holds, the medium to long-term bullish trend remains intact)
Intraday Key Resistance/Targets:
Near-term Target: 4130 - 4140 area
Target if Broken: If 4140 is decisively broken, the upside space could open further, targeting higher levels like 4200 and 4300.
III. Today's Trading Strategy
Guiding Principle: Focus on buying on dips, be cautious about chasing the rally. Consider light positions to bet on a pullback at key resistance levels.
Long Strategy (Primary Direction):
Entry Timing (Ideal Scenario): Wait for the gold price to pull back to the 4080 - 4070 support zone and enter long positions in batches after signs of stabilization.
Stop Loss: Set below 4060.
Profit Target: Initially aim for the 4130-4140 area. If a strong breakout occurs, consider holding for higher targets.
Short Strategy (Secondary Direction, Short-term Speculation):
Entry Timing: Only consider a light short position when the price first touches the strong 4130-4140 resistance area AND shows clear rejection signals (e.g., long upper wick, bearish engulfing pattern).
Stop Loss: Must be set strictly above 4150.
Profit Target: Look down towards 4100 or 4080. Execute quickly, do not hold onto losing positions.
IV. Risk Warnings and Important Notes
Avoid Heavy Positions: The market is in an extremely overbought state and volatility can be very sharp. Trade with light positions to guard against sudden reversals.
Use Strict Stop Losses: Every trade must have a stop loss. This is crucial for protecting capital in the current high-volatility environment.
Monitor News Flow: Closely watch the latest news regarding the US budget (government shutdown risk), geopolitical developments, and speeches from Fed officials, as these can trigger significant market volatility.
Maintain Flexibility: If the gold price unexpectedly breaks below the key 4060 support, short-term upward momentum may weaken. Consider pausing long strategies and reassess the market trend.