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Gold Market Analysis 01 Sep 2025 05:30 PM (UAE Time)Executive Summary Gold is pressing the $3,470 area after a strong one-day impulsive rally. Market structure is bullish (higher highs/higher lows), but intraday momentum is cooling a touch at overbought levels. Macro backdrop is supportive: rate-cut bets, a softer USD, and geopolitical risk kept bids firm; liquidity is thinner today with U.S. markets shut for Labour Day. 1) Technical Analysis (1 Hour time frame) Price action Last 7 days: Steady grind up from ~$3,390–3,400 to $3,470+, with multiple BOS (break of structure) prints and rising EMAs. Last 24 hours: Vertical push from ~$3,445 to $3,480, then a tight flag under the highs. Primary trend: Uptrend on H1 (higher swing highs/lows). Key levels Immediate resistance: $3,478–3,492 Near supports: $3,460–3,462 (first pullback). $3,447 (high-volume node). $3,438–3,433 (demand zone). $3,400 / $3,392 (deeper support). Patterns: Bullish continuation structure; potential flag under highs. No confirmed reversal pattern; watch for a failed auction if the price rejects above ~$3,485–3,492. Cross-markets (correlations) USD index: Lower-lows trend around USD tone is soft, typically supportive for gold. VIX: mild risk-off tailwind for Gold. 2) Fundamental Analysis (UAE time) Macro & rates Gold is higher on Fed-cut expectations and a weaker USD; Reuters highlights fresh multi-month highs for spot and futures with thin liquidity due to the U.S. bank holiday (Labor Day) U.S. markets closed today (Labour Day), reducing North American session liquidity. Today’s high/medium economic prints China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug): 50.5 at 05:45 UAE (01:45 UTC) — beat vs prior; mixed for gold (risk sentiment ↑) but USD impact + rates still matter more right now. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI final (Aug.): returned to expansion in August; releases around 12:00 UAE (08:00 UTC). This tends to pressure USD marginally if EUR firms, indirectly helping gold. UK Manufacturing PMI (Aug): 47.0 at 12:30 UAE (08:30 UTC), deeper contraction—GBP negative; limited direct gold read-through, but not exactly risk-on. Geopolitics / sentiment The EU is drawing up “precise plans” for troop deployment to Ukraine (with U.S. support) — a clear safe-haven undercurrent for gold if tensions escalate. (Financial Times) 3) Trading Plan for XAUUSD A) Swing ideas (1–3 days) 1) Trend-following long on pullback (preferred) Entry zone: $3,447–3,452 (or staggered bids down to $3,438–3,433 (demand)). Invalidation (SL): $3,428 Targets: $3,480 → $3,495 → $3,515 (extension if momentum reignites). 2) Counter-trend short (only on failed auction) Trigger: Rejection wicks and value shift below $3,468 after probing $3,485–3,492. SL: $3,498 (above rejection). Targets: $3,460 → $3,447. B) Intraday scalps 3) Breakout-continuation long Entry: Acceptance above $3,476–3,478 SL: ~$3,467 TPs: $3,485 → $3,492 4) Fade at extremes Entry: Short $3,490–3,495 on clear rejection. SL: $3,502 TPs: $3,480 → $3,472 4) How the day’s fundamentals map to price Rates & USD: Dovish tone from Fed officials and cut expectations are the primary bull driver; a softer dollar mechanically lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold. Global PMIs: Eurozone back to expansion may support EUR vs USD at the margin—gold friendly; UK contraction is a local drag, limited cross-asset pull. China PMI beat: Aids broader risk tone, but today gold’s behaviour is more rates/FX/geopolitics-led. Geopolitical risk: Ukraine-related security planning adds a modest safe-haven bid—it’s not everything, but it matters around tops when traders ask, “do I want less risk here?” Conclusion Bullish bias remains intact while above $3,447. Best-quality trades: buy orderly pullbacks into $3,447–3,452 or $3,438–3,433, or ride a clean acceptance above $3,478. Be cautious chasing late highs into $3,490 without confirmation—momentum is hot but a tad tired, and holiday liquidity can whipsaw. Disclaimer — This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. Trading in precious metals involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consider consulting with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Muhammad-Alamer
Role of USD as the World Reserve CurrencyIntroduction The United States dollar (USD) is not just America’s currency; it is the backbone of the global financial system. Since the mid-20th century, the USD has become the primary reserve currency of the world, meaning that central banks, governments, corporations, and investors across the globe hold significant amounts of dollars as part of their reserves for trade, stability, and financial security. Today, nearly 60% of global foreign exchange reserves are held in dollars, and the vast majority of international trade transactions—from oil to gold to manufactured goods—are priced and settled in USD. The status of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency gives the United States enormous advantages, while also shaping the way global markets, international trade, and financial flows operate. But this role also comes with responsibilities and challenges, and it is increasingly being questioned in light of economic shifts, geopolitical rivalries, and the rise of alternative currencies such as the euro, the Chinese yuan, and even digital assets. This essay will examine the historical background, structural reasons, benefits, challenges, and future prospects of the USD’s role as the world’s reserve currency, in about 3,000 words. Historical Evolution of the USD as the Reserve Currency The Gold Standard and Early Role of the Pound Sterling Before the USD gained dominance, the British pound sterling served as the world’s reserve currency in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Britain’s colonial empire, its global trade networks, and its financial institutions in London made the pound the anchor of international commerce. The gold standard—where currencies were backed by physical gold—strengthened this system. The Bretton Woods Agreement (1944) The turning point for the dollar came during World War II. In 1944, the Bretton Woods Conference established the USD as the central currency of the international monetary system. The U.S. held the largest gold reserves in the world, and the USD was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. Other currencies were pegged to the dollar, effectively making it the reference currency for global trade. The Nixon Shock and Petrodollar System (1971–1973) In 1971, President Richard Nixon ended the gold convertibility of the USD due to mounting fiscal deficits and inflation, marking the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Despite this, the dollar retained its dominance. The U.S. secured agreements with oil-producing nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, to price and sell oil exclusively in dollars. This "petrodollar system" ensured continuous global demand for the USD, as all countries needed dollars to buy oil and other key commodities. Modern Era of Dollar Dominance From the 1980s to today, the dollar’s dominance has been reinforced by the size of the U.S. economy, deep financial markets, political stability, and the central role of American institutions like the Federal Reserve. Even during global crises—the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, or wars—investors flock to the dollar as a "safe haven" asset. Why the USD Became the World Reserve Currency Several structural factors explain why the USD became and has remained the world’s reserve currency: Economic Size The United States has been the largest or one of the largest economies in the world since the 20th century. Its vast production capacity, innovation, and consumer demand created a natural foundation for its currency to dominate. Military and Political Power U.S. military strength and its geopolitical influence underpin global trust in the dollar. Nations accept and hold dollars partly because of the stability of the U.S. government and its role as a guarantor of global security. Financial Market Depth and Liquidity The U.S. Treasury market is the largest, most liquid bond market in the world. Foreign governments and investors can easily buy and sell U.S. government securities, making the dollar a practical choice for reserves. Network Effects Once a currency is widely adopted, it becomes self-reinforcing. The more countries and corporations use the dollar, the more others are incentivized to do the same to reduce transaction costs and risks. Petrodollar and Commodity Pricing Since key global commodities such as oil, gold, and agricultural products are priced in dollars, nations must hold USD reserves to trade effectively. Trust in U.S. Institutions The Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, and American legal system are viewed as relatively transparent, stable, and reliable compared to many alternatives. Functions of the USD in the Global Economy The dollar plays multiple roles in the global financial architecture: Reserve Currency for Central Banks Central banks hold USD reserves to stabilize their own currencies, intervene in foreign exchange markets, and maintain confidence in their financial systems. Medium of International Trade More than 80% of trade in goods and services is invoiced in dollars. Even when trade does not involve the U.S., counterparties often prefer dollar settlement. Anchor Currency for Exchange Rates Many countries peg their currencies to the dollar, either formally (currency boards) or informally, to ensure stability in trade and investment. Safe-Haven Asset In times of global crisis or uncertainty, investors and governments buy U.S. dollars and Treasuries, considering them safer than other assets. Investment Currency Global investors prefer dollar-denominated assets, from U.S. bonds to equities, given their liquidity and returns. Debt and Loan Currency A significant share of global debt—sovereign, corporate, and private—is denominated in dollars, meaning borrowers worldwide rely on USD liquidity. Benefits of USD Dominance For the United States “Exorbitant Privilege” Coined by French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, this phrase highlights America’s ability to borrow cheaply because of high global demand for its currency. Low Borrowing Costs The U.S. government can run larger fiscal deficits as the world consistently buys U.S. Treasury bonds. Influence Over Global Finance The U.S. can use its currency dominance to impose economic sanctions, monitor capital flows, and shape international institutions. Resilience During Crises Global capital flows into the U.S. during crises, strengthening the dollar and reducing the risk of capital flight. For the Global Economy Stability in Trade and Finance Having a dominant currency reduces uncertainty and exchange rate risk in global transactions. Liquidity and Access Dollar markets provide unmatched liquidity, making it easier for countries and companies to trade and borrow. Benchmarking and Pricing Commodities, financial contracts, and international investments are priced in USD, creating uniform standards. Challenges and Criticisms of Dollar Dominance Despite its advantages, the dollar’s dominance has drawbacks: Global Dependence and Imbalances The world’s reliance on the dollar forces other nations to accumulate large reserves, often leading to trade imbalances. Vulnerability to U.S. Policies When the Federal Reserve changes interest rates, it affects not only the U.S. but also emerging economies, which may face capital flight, currency depreciation, or debt crises. Weaponization of the Dollar The U.S. uses the dollar system for sanctions against countries like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. Critics argue this undermines trust and pushes nations to seek alternatives. Triffin Dilemma Belgian economist Robert Triffin pointed out that for the dollar to serve global demand, the U.S. must run persistent deficits, which eventually erode confidence in its currency. Inflation Export By printing more dollars to fund its deficits, the U.S. can indirectly export inflation to other countries holding dollar reserves. Rise of Alternatives The euro, Chinese yuan, gold, and even cryptocurrencies are increasingly seen as potential challengers to dollar dominance. Alternatives to the USD Euro (EUR) Accounts for about 20% of global reserves. The eurozone is economically strong, but political fragmentation and sovereign debt crises weaken confidence. Chinese Yuan (CNY / RMB) China is pushing the yuan for trade settlement, especially under the Belt and Road Initiative. However, capital controls and lack of transparency limit its role. Gold Some countries are returning to gold as a hedge against dollar risk. Central banks, especially in emerging markets, are increasing gold reserves. Cryptocurrencies and Digital Assets Bitcoin and stablecoins are sometimes used for cross-border payments, but volatility and regulatory uncertainty limit adoption. Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) The IMF’s SDR, a basket of currencies, is designed as an alternative reserve asset, but it remains marginal in actual trade. Future of the USD as Reserve Currency The USD remains dominant, but challenges to its supremacy are growing. Possible scenarios include: Continued Dominance The dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency due to inertia, trust, and unmatched liquidity. Multipolar Currency System A gradual shift where the euro, yuan, and other currencies share reserve roles alongside the dollar. Fragmented Financial Order Increased use of regional currencies or digital alternatives, particularly in response to U.S. sanctions. Digital Dollar Revolution The introduction of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC) could reinforce the dollar’s global role by modernizing cross-border transactions. Conclusion The U.S. dollar’s role as the world reserve currency is a cornerstone of the modern global economy. It provides stability, liquidity, and efficiency in trade and finance, while granting the U.S. significant economic and geopolitical leverage. However, this dominance is not unchallenged. Structural imbalances, overreliance, and the rise of alternatives point toward a future where the dollar may face stronger competition. Yet, for now, no other currency matches the dollar’s unique combination of trust, liquidity, and institutional support. The world remains deeply invested in the greenback, making it likely that the USD will continue to dominate global reserves and trade in the foreseeable future, albeit in a gradually more multipolar system.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Interest rate forecast to decreaseMarkets now expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates as early as September. Traders have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point cut, with further easing likely in October and December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “Recent U.S. economic data have prompted us to revise our rate forecasts lower,” BofA said, citing signs of a cooling labor market. “Recent weakness in employment data, slowing job growth, and other signs of labor market slack could prompt the Fed to change its risk assessment.” The bank also said political pressure on the Fed, including criticism from President Donald Trump, could continue to weigh on the dollar. “The risks to the Fed’s independence are well recognized, but now markets must also factor in the implications of institutional weakness at statistical agencies,” the analysts stressed.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FalCol_TradingMaster
1
Symmetrical Triangle Breakout on Gold Spot (75-Minute Chart)This chart illustrates a symmetrical triangle forming on the Gold Spot/US Dollar 75-minute timeframe, followed by a bullish breakout and a measured-move target. 1. Pattern Structure Upper Trendline (Resistance): Connects a series of lower highs (peaks) sloping downward. Lower Trendline (Support): Connects rising higher lows (troughs) sloping upward. These two converging lines form the triangle’s boundaries, indicating decreasing volatility and a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. 2. Breakout Price closes decisively above the upper (resistance) trendline, signaling buyer dominance and the end of consolidation. Breakouts from symmetrical triangles can occur in either direction; here, it’s upward, confirming a bullish continuation. 3. Volume and Confirmation Although not shown on this chart, volume typically contracts during the triangle formation and then expands on the breakout, validating the move. 4. Measured-Move Target The vertical distance of the triangle’s base (the widest part between the first high and first low) is projected from the breakout point. This projection marks the price target labeled “Target” on the chart, suggesting the potential upside objective for the bullish move.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by XAUUSDANALYST
Bull-Bear Game in a Volatile Gold MarketBull-Bear Game in a Volatile Gold Market: Short-Term Pressure, Medium-Term Bearish The market is engaged in a fierce battle at the key $3,380 level, and gold is on the eve of a directional decision. The gold market is currently locked in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. In the medium term, a bearish trend is dominant, with four consecutive upper shadows on the monthly chart providing a solid foundation for bearish sentiment. Fundamentally, previous expectations of tariffs have been fully priced into the market, and even if new tariff measures are introduced, they will be unlikely to replicate the impact they had during the initial stages of Trump's return to the White House. The impact of global geopolitical developments is also gradually waning—these "minor" actions lack the participation of powerful countries, and the market reaction is much weaker than before. The topic of a Fed rate cut has been repeatedly hyped by the market for two years, resembling the story of "the boy who cried wolf." The current market uncertainty lies in whether gold will break through the resistance area of ​​3,400-3,410, break a new high, and then fall, or begin a sweeping decline below 3,400-10. This month's monthly close is crucial and provides valuable insights into the medium-term trend. Short-term Dynamics: News Triggers Volatility Yesterday morning, news of the removal of Federal Reserve Board Governor Tim Cook triggered sharp market volatility, with gold prices instantly jumping over $30. The price remained range-bound between 3367 and 80 throughout the day, breaking through the 80 mark in late US trading, shifting into a range of 10 points above. Today's key intraday support has risen to 3365, with core weekly support at 3330-35. Regarding resistance, 3385 was broken yesterday, but prices are currently under pressure there. Currently, attention should be paid to resistance in the 3385-3394 area. Short-term support lies in the 3370-74 area. A break below this support level could signal the start of a correction. Technical Analysis: Multiple Timeframe Signals From the daily chart, despite yesterday's strong bullish trend, the upper and lower Bollinger Bands are narrowing, making the uptrend less pronounced. Current support lies at 3370-71 near the MA5 moving average and the middle band at 3357. The daily MACD indicator has formed a golden cross near the zero axis, and the STO indicator is overbought, indicating that prices are fluctuating at a high level. The 4-hour chart shows the initial formation of a death cross in the MACD, and the STO indicator is converging, suggesting that prices may enter a period of volatile correction. In the short term, focus on the 3382-3379 double moving average, followed by support at 3366 near the middle moving average. The hourly chart signals are clearer, with the MACD death cross and large volume, and the STO indicator correcting downward, suggesting weak price fluctuations. Current pressure is concentrated around 3379-3381, followed by 3374. Trading Strategy: Cautious Positioning Based on comprehensive technical analysis, the gold market is currently in a high-level volatile pattern, and continued pursuit of gains is not recommended. Consider shorting in the 3390-93 area, with a stop loss if the 5-minute moving average breaks through 3400, and target the 74-65-60-55 areas. If the 1-hour moving average breaks below 74, shorting on a rebound is advisable. On the downside, we need to wait for signs of stabilization in the 3362-3353-3343 area before considering buying on a rebound. The market is about to make a directional move. The $3400-3410 range will become a watershed between bulls and bears—a breakout would open up new upside potential, while a pullback under pressure could trigger a correction. For investors, it's best to remain patient and wait for the market to determine its own direction before taking action.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Fibonacci_Gold
Gold Intra-Day Analysis 27-Aug-2025Gold is stuck in a higher time frame consolidation range. We saw couple of momentum price movement during August which was mainly related to NFP and the other during Powell speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The main areas of interest for Gold are: 3355, 3385, 3400 & 3430s Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD
by easyMarkets
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold briefly broke above the $3,386 resistance, but failed to hold and has since pulled back, now trading around $3,376. The rejection highlights $3,386 as a key barrier, while price remains supported above the $3,363 level with the 50MA (pink) still trending upward. If buyers can reclaim and sustain above $3,386, the next upside targets are $3,406 and $3,422. On the downside, a break below $3,363 would expose the $3,347–$3,328 support zone, with further weakness opening the door toward the Secondary Support Zone ($3,304–$3,281). 📌Key Levels to Watch Resistance: $3,386 $3,406 $3,422 Support: $3,363 $3,347 $3,328 $3,304 $3,281
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
XAUUSD Delivered Excellent profits As imentioned in yesterday’s commentary session: My strategy was buy the dips from 3345–3350 zone although 1st I took sell and also shared my live sell.trades towards 3355 TP. Very happy with the profits so far, Yesterday I captured only 1 trade. I Sold GOLD 3374 – 170 PIPS TP HIT I bought GOLD 3353– 150 PIPS TP HIT • 1st SETUP of week Always follow your setup & your path with patience and discipline. All I say thanks to those who followed us and made profits.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Forexmaestro121
Gold continues to rise despite September rate cut📊 Technical Trend & Pattern Gold is consolidating after a strong bullish impulse, forming a Bullish Pennant pattern, which typically signals continuation of the uptrend. Price has broken out of the pennant, suggesting potential for further upside momentum. 🔎 Key Levels Entry Area: 3,371 – 3,375 Support / Stop Out Zone: 3,358 Target Zone / Take Profit: 3,425 ⚡️ Fundamental Outlook Gold remains supported by global economic uncertainty and safe-haven demand. Market participants are closely monitoring U.S. data and interest rate expectations, which could add fuel to bullish momentum. 📈 Trading Idea Bullish bias above 3,371, with potential continuation toward the 3,425 target. A failure to hold above support may trigger stop-out below 3,358. 👍 Like this analysis & 🔔 Follow me for more trading updates and ideas. 💬 What’s your view? Drop your comments and ideas below!
PYTH:XAUUSDLong
by HazelTurner
XAUUSD – Watching 3,310 as Price Pulls BackHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 3,310 zone, Gold (XAUUSD) has been moving lower after its recent swing high, with price now correcting toward the 3,310 area. Structure: The broader bias has been bullish overall, but recent price action shows a corrective move. Key level in focus: 3,310 — previously acted as support/resistance. Next move: Holding above this zone could maintain the medium-term bullish bias, while a clear break below may open the way for deeper retracement. Monitoring how price behaves around 3,310 to understand whether buyers will step in or if weakness continues. Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
31