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GOLD.F trade ideas

GAMMA SQUEEZE: Why Gold Prices will hit 5 000 + USDBottom line If 1% of Treasuries ($278B) rotates into gold, $5,000/oz is not only plausible—it sits inside the low end of what flow math + today’s market microstructure can deliver. The path (and whether we print $8k+ spikes) hinges on how much of that flow shows up as short-dated calls—because that is what turns steady demand into a self-feeding gamma loop. ________________________________________ Executive summary • A 1% rotation out of U.S. Treasuries is roughly $278B of new gold demand (using SIFMA’s latest estimate that Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T). • At today’s context (gold ~$3.53k/oz on Sep 2–5, 2025), $278B buys ~79.4M oz ≈ 2,471 tonnes; at $5k/oz it buys ~55.6M oz ≈ 1,729 tonnes. For scale, annual mine supply ≈ 3,661 t and total above-ground stocks ≈ 216,265 t (bars/coins+ETFs ≈ 48,634 t). • That flow is huge relative to both quarterly demand value (Q2’25 ≈ $132B) and typical daily trading turnover (~$290B/day across OTC, futures & ETFs). Even spread out, it materially tilts the tape; if concentrated and routed via options, it can produce dealer hedging feedback—i.e., a gamma squeeze. • Price targets (framework, not prophecy): o Conservative flow-only: +40–60% → $4,900–$5,600/oz o Base case (flow + some options reflexivity): +70–110% → $6,000–$7,500/oz o Squeeze/overshoot window (short-dated calls heavy): episodic spikes >$8,000/oz possible, but hard to sustain without continued flow. These bands come from scaling prior ETF-driven episodes (notably ~877 t ETF inflow in 2020 alongside a ~+36% price run) and sizing against current market depth, while layering a realistic options-hedging multiplier (details below). ________________________________________ 1) What a “gamma squeeze” in gold means (and why it can happen) Definition (in one line): When call buying concentrates near-dated, near-the-money strikes, dealers short gamma must buy futures as price rises (and sell if it falls) to keep neutral—this feedback accelerates upside (“gamma squeeze”). Why it’s plausible in gold right now: • The listed derivatives stack is large. As of Fri, Sep 5, 2025, CME’s daily bulletin shows COMEX gold options open interest ~0.80M contracts (calls ~0.49–0.69M; puts ~0.30–0.38M depending on line item), each on 100 oz—i.e., option OI notionally ties to ~2,400–2,800 t of gold. That is the powder keg a call-wave can act on. • Implied vol is moderate (GVZ ~18 for 30-day GLD options), so vega is “affordable,” gamma is punchy in the front end. • CME’s CVOL framework and open-interest tools confirm where strikes/expiries cluster; when OI stacks close to spot and near expiry, market-wide gamma becomes most sensitive. Back-of-envelope hedging math (illustrative): For a 30-day, at-the-money option with σ≈18%, the Black-Scholes gamma is about Γ≈ϕ(0)SσT≈0.399S⋅0.18⋅30/365\Gamma \approx \frac{\phi(0)}{S\sigma\sqrt{T}} \approx \frac{0.399}{S\cdot 0.18 \cdot \sqrt{30/365}}. At S=$3,500/oz, that’s ~0.0022 per $. A +1% move (+$35) bumps delta by ~0.077 per option. If just 150k near-ATM front-tenor calls are held by customers (dealers short gamma), hedge buying ≈ 150,000 × 100 oz × 0.077 ≈ 1.16M oz ≈ 36 t—per 1% price pop. That’s only a slice of total OI; a broader crowding raises this number. Compare with ~2,500 t/day of global turnover and you can see how concentrated dealer hedging can move price intraday. ________________________________________ 2) Sizing a 1% Treasury → gold rotation Treasury base: latest SIFMA comment put U.S. Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T (Q1’25). 1% → $278B. Gold the rotation would buy: • At $3,500/oz: $278B → ~79.4M oz → ~2,471 t • At $5,000/oz: $278B → ~55.6M oz → ~1,729 t For scale: • Annual mine supply (2024): ~3,661 t; total supply (incl. recycling): ~4,974 t. A $278B buy ticket equals 47–67% of a year’s mine output (depending on price), or ~35–50% of total annual supply. • ETF precedent: In 2020, ~877 t net ETF inflow (~$48B) coincided with a ~+36% move from Jan→Aug 2020. Today’s $278B is ~5–6× that dollar size (and ~2–3× the tonnes, depending on price), hinting at large flow-driven upside even before any options reflexivity. • Turnover lens: WGC puts average daily trading across OTC/futures/ETFs at roughly $290B/day recently. A $278B program is ~one day’s global turnover. Pushed quickly (or skewed to options), that’s impactful; stretched over months, the price impact softens but still accumulates. Futures-only lens (capacity check): At $3,500/oz, one COMEX GC contract notionally = $350k (100 oz). $278B equals ~794k GC contracts. Current futures OI is ~0.49M contracts, so this exceeds all COMEX OI—you cannot push that much via futures quickly without major repricing. Even at $5,000/oz (~$500k/contract), it’s ~556k contracts, still comparable to the entire OI. ________________________________________ 3) Price-target framework (with the math that gets you there) Think of the price in layers: (A) base flow impact + (B) options-gamma reflexivity + (C) second-round effects (short-covering, momentum, FX, central banks). A) Flow-only impact (calibrated to 2020) • 2020 anchor: 877 t ETF inflow ↔ ~+36% price. Using a simple proportionality, 1,729–2,471 t (your $278B) maps to ~+71% to +101%. • Apply to spot ≈ $3,532/oz (early Sep 2025): o +71% → ~$6,050/oz o +101% → ~$7,100/oz Caveat: 2020 had unique macro tailwinds, so I treat this as upper-middle of base range. B) Options reflexivity / gamma squeeze overlay If 20–30% of the $278B rotation expresses via short-dated calls (common for levered macro expressions), dealer hedging can amplify flow impact: • From the OI math earlier, a mere 1% up-move can demand ~20–40 t of dealer hedge buying if near-ATM OI is thick. A 3–5% multi-day grind can easily cascade into 100–200 t of incremental buying from hedgers alone. That’s non-trivial vs. mine supply pace, and it pulls forward upside. • Result: add another +10–20% to the flow-only levels during a squeeze while it lasts. C) Second-round effects • Central banks: still persistent net buyers (>1,000 t/yr pace in recent years), tending to fade dips rather than rallies—a structural bid. • FX & rates: the GVZ ~18 regime means bursts of vol aren’t “expensive”; a weakening USD or policy shocks can tilt the target higher. Putting it together—scenario bands Scenario Assumptions Implied move Target Conservative $278B spread over 6–9 months, mostly physical/ETFs; limited options +40–60% $4,900–$5,600 Base case 50–70% to physical/ETFs, 30–50% to futures/options; moderate dealer short-gamma +70–110% $6,000–$7,500 Squeeze / overshoot Short-dated call concentration, dealers persistently short gamma; flow bunches in weeks +120–>150% (episodic) >$8,000 (brief spikes) $5,000 target is well within the conservative band if any meaningful fraction of the $278B pushes through quickly, even without a full-blown gamma loop. ________________________________________ 4) Why the market could mechanically gap higher • Market size vs. flow: Q2’25 total demand value = $132B. Dropping $278B into this ecosystem is a 2× quarterly shock. • Trading capacity: $278B ≈ one full day of global turnover; price impact is convex when the risk-absorption (dealers, miners, recyclers) cannot scale linearly day-by-day. • Derivatives gearing: With ~0.8M options contracts OI outstanding and futures OI ~0.49M, even a partial shift into calls forces hedge-buys on the way up, the hallmark of a squeeze. ________________________________________ 5) Key risks / reality checks • Time profile of the rotation matters. A slow, programmatic shift spreads impact; a front-loaded move can overshoot then mean-revert as gamma decays. • Elasticity is asymmetric. Jewelry/fabrication falls at high prices (demand destruction), recycling rises, both cushioning extremes. That moderates how long >$7k can persist without continued flow. • Volatility regimes change. If GVZ spikes to high-20s/30s, option premia jump, slowing new call demand; conversely, put demand can flip net gamma long for dealers, dampening squeezes. ________________________________________ References (most load-bearing) • Treasury base: SIFMA—Treasuries outstanding $27.8T (Feb 2025). • Gold supply & stocks: WGC—Above-ground stock 216,265 t (end-2024); bars/coins+ETFs 48,634 t; mine supply 2024 ≈ 3,661 t. • Trading turnover: WGC—gold trading ≈ $290B/day. • ETF precedent: WGC—2020 ETF inflows 877 t (~$47.9B) alongside major price rise. • Current price context: Reuters—record highs $3,532/oz set in early Sep 2025. ( • Options/hedging plumbing: CME daily bulletin (Sep 5, 2025) showing gold options OI ~0.8M contracts; CME CVOL/tools; Cboe GVZ ~18 as 30-day IV. ________________________________________
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
39
XAUUSD Analysis – September 11, 2025On the H1 timeframe, Gold is showing signs of weakness after failing to hold the key resistance zone. Price is currently trading around 3,622 USD, with short-term selling pressure becoming more visible. Key Technical Levels: Resistance: 3,634 – 3,657 USD → Strong supply zone where sellers are actively pushing price down. Support: 3,616 – 3,570 USD → A breakdown below this area could trigger a deeper pullback toward 3,552 USD. EMA Signals: Price has slipped below short-term EMAs and is now testing the mid-term EMA, signaling corrective momentum. The EMA200 (purple line) sits around 3,570 USD, overlapping with strong support → this level will be decisive for the next trend direction. Trading Strategy: Bearish Scenario (preferred): Consider short positions if price retests 3,630 – 3,634 USD. Targets: 3,616 → 3,570 USD. Stop-loss above 3,657 USD. Bullish Scenario (countertrend): Only consider long entries near 3,570 – 3,552 USD if clear reversal signals appear. Recovery targets: 3,616 → 3,634 USD. Conclusion: Gold faces short-term downside pressure and may test the 3,616 – 3,570 USD support zone. The reaction around EMA200 will determine whether this is just a technical correction or the start of a deeper bearish phase.
FX:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
Detailed Analysis of Gold (XAU/USD)Gold recently tested record highs around $3675, but prices are showing corrections as traders must have started booking profits from the extreme high level. On the 4H chart, the price action remains within an ascending channel, suggesting that the broader trend still carries mild bullish momentum. After touching the lower trendline of the channel, gold is showing signs of stabilization, but upside momentum is weakening. The immediate support lies between $3636 (Fib 0.236 level) and $3620 (middle Bollinger Band) — a breakdown below this zone could trigger further correction toward $3612–$3593 (Fib 0.382–0.5 levels). On the upside, if gold holds above the channel support, recovery toward $3675 highs cannot be ruled out, though momentum indicators suggest caution. Overall: Gold is still in a short-term bullish structure but vulnerable to deeper pullbacks if the key $3636–3620 zone breaks.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by Nadia_farhat
Gold Tests Key Reversal Zone – Bears on WatchGold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) completed the move as I expected in my previous idea , both the down and up moves I expected. Gold is currently moving in the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . In terms of Elliott wave theory , it looks like Gold is completing the 5th microwaves of the main wave 3 . I expect Gold to start correcting in the coming hours and drop to at least $3,593(First Target) . Second Target: $3,583 Stop Loss(SL): $3,634 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
34
GOLD WEEKLY CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, After completing our 1h, 4h and daily chart ideas this week, please now see update on our weekly chart idea, which we also smashed into pips!!! As anticipated - This time, bulls followed through in full force: ✅ We got our Target Hit at 3482 after confirming the gap from the body close above 3387. ✅ To finish the week on a high, we also completed our long-range axis target at 3576, which has been highlighted on the chart since the beginning of our tracking on this chart idea. 🔹 3482 Gap Target Achieved The upside gap has now been fully confirmed and met. 🔹 Axis Target 3576 Completed The higher-timeframe target we’ve tracked since the start has been fulfilled, marking a strong close to the week. With both the 3482 gap and 3576 axis target achieved, the bullish roadmap we’ve tracked has now played out to completion. Near-term, we’ll watch how price reacts around 3576. A strong close above could open fresh upside extensions, while failure here may trigger a healthy pullback toward 3387 for retest. We will now come back Sunday with a full multi timeframe analysis to prepare for next week’s setups, including updated views on the higher timeframes, EMA5 alignments, and structure expectations going forward. Thanks again for all your likes, comments, and follows. Wishing you all a fantastic weekend!! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
5
XAU/USD OUTLOOK 11-09-25Hey Guys, I'm more in Bullish bias, anyway here are both ways where we can cash in today. XAUUSD 15M Analysis(11th September 2025) BUY/SELL SCENARIOS: BUYS: 1) Body Candle Close above the 3649.76 level. 2) Retest the 15m Bullish CHoCH at the 3649.76 level. 3) Create a 3/5m Bullish Engulfing Candle to capitalise on BUYS towards the 3675.00 level. SELLS: 1) Body candle close below the 3635.28 level. 2) Retest the 15m Bearish CHoCH at the 3635.28 level. 3)Create a 3/5m Bearish Engulfing candle to capitalize on SELLS towards the 3612.90 level. Trade Smart, Trade Safe guys. Cheers!
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by paulsmith007
XAUUSD (Gold Spot USD) – OutlookGold has exploded north out of a multi-month accumulation channel. The breakout was clean, with momentum building since early September. Price surged past key resistance with strong impulsive leg, targeting a potential exhaustion zone near the 0.618 Fib extension. 📣 Fed policy speculation is driving safe haven demand. Chinese demand for physical gold also spiking. Rising geopolitical tensions and inflation hedging fueling Gold. 📈 Technical Breakdown 🟩 Trend Analysis Price is riding a steep ascending channel. Momentum is intact, but vertical angle suggests overheating.! 0.618 Fib Extension suggests upside exhaustion near 3,726 🟥 Supply & Demand Zones First Demand Zone: 3,589 - 3,579 Second Demand Zone: 3,553 - 3,540 📉 RSI Divergence Potential Bearish RSI Divergence building on 1H Price making HH, RSI failing = watch for correction pullback 📌 Trade Setup Idea (Swing Trade) Long Entry at DZ1 (Confirmation Entry) Entry 3589 (Pullback into 1st Demand Zone) Stop Loss 3578 (Below 1st demand) Take Profit 3640 (Top of the Channel) Risk/Reward ~1:4 Long Entry at DZ2 (If DZ1 did not hold) Entry 3554 (Pullback into 2nd Demand Zone) Stop Loss 3538.7 (Below 2nd demand) Take Profit 3639.5 (Top of the Channel) Risk/Reward ~1:5.5 🛡️ Risk Management "Max risk: 1-3% of your capital per trade." Adjust position size accordingly. 🧩 Trade Management SL to BE (Break Even) when price hits 1:1 RR zone (~3,615). Be prepared to scale out 50% at TP1, trail rest to ride extension. "The trend is your friend until it bends at the end ." ⚠️ Disclaimer This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before trading. Trading carries risk of capital loss.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DubaiTradersHub
1
XAUUSD 30M – Intraday Plan Around the RangePrice is holding between $3,657.17 (resistance) and $3,626.93 (support). We’re trading around $3,652–$3,653 just below resistance. Scalps can work, but bigger moves need confirmation. 🔼 Bullish Plan (primary focus – aligned with fundamentals) Trigger: A clean 30min body close above $3,657.17 (not just a wick). Targets: $3,660.30 → $3,664.53 → $3,666.14 Management: Take partials at $3,660.30, move SL to breakeven once $3,657 holds on retest. 🔽 Bearish Plan (secondary, cleaner below support) Trigger: 30min body close below $3,626.93. Targets: $3,624.52 → $3,623.32 → $3,621.49 Management: Scale partials at $3,624.52, protect the rest at breakeven. 🌍 Fundamentals: CPI bit hotter than expected → supports Fed rate cuts (odds at 100%). Real yields declining + strong central bank demand → keeps gold structurally bullish. 🔄 Range Scalp (higher risk, small size) Shorts: $3,656–$3,657 on rejection → aim $3,650–$3,652, SL above $3,660. Longs: $3,627–$3,628 on rejection wick → aim $3,636–$3,640, SL below $3,624. ✅ Break Confirmation Strong 30min close through $3,657 or $3,626. ❌ Invalidation Breakout closes back inside the box (trap). Multiple wicks with no continuation. 📌 Bottom Line Above $3,657.17 → bullish bias to $3,660 → $3,666. Below $3,626.93 → bearish bias to $3,624 → $3,621. Inside the box = scalp only, risk tight.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by fxt8
Gold Dips Pre-CPI: Fed Cut Hype Fuels Buying Opportunities!Hello traders! Gold (XAU/USD) is slightly down today (11/09/2025) after yesterday’s weak PPI report—US wholesale inflation fell more than expected, boosting bets for a Fed rate cut next week to 100% for 0.25%, with growing odds for 0.5% (CME FedWatch). Tonight’s CPI and Jobless Claims at 19:30 ET will clarify inflation and labor trends, shaping the Fed’s exact cut. Gold won’t drop sharply unless hit by a shock like Trump tariffs—dips are buying opportunities! Let’s analyze today’s market and find trade setups! 💰 Fundamental Analysis: Gold Shines Bright 🌟 The weak PPI fuels rate cut expectations, easing pressure on USD and Treasuries, making non-yielding gold more attractive. With a 38% YTD surge (after 27% in 2024), gold is supported by a weak USD, China’s 10-month buying streak, and global uncertainty. CPI (11/09) will guide Fed policy—low inflation could push gold to new highs; high readings may trigger short-term dips. Keep RR tight! Technical Analysis: Consolidation Pre-CPI – Favor Buying 📉 Gold rose in Asia but hit resistance at 364x OB, dropping to 362x with liquidity sweeps—set SLs carefully! The 362x zone is key; a break below could target 361x or 3600. The bullish trend remains strong—prioritize buying dips unless major resistance fails. Resistance: 3640 - 3648 - 3659 - 3674 Support: 3621 - 3615 - 3607 - 3600 Trade Setups: Sell Scalp: 3640 - 3642 (SL: 3646; TP: 3637 - 3632 - 3627) Sell Zone: 3648 - 3650 (SL: 3658; TP: 3640 - 3630 - 3620) Buy Scalp: 3617 - 3615 (SL: 3611; TP: 3620 - 3625 - 3630) Buy Zone: 3601 - 3599 (SL: 3591; TP: 3611 - 3621 - 3631) Gold is consolidating pre-CPI—watch for liquidity traps! Above 362x, bulls aim for new highs; below, test lower supports. Manage risk tightly before CPI volatility! Will you buy dips or sell highs? Share your strategies below! 👇 #Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #CPI #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Forex #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #Finance #USInflation
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
Wait for new highs and go long on pullbacksA good day starts with profits, now let's analyze the trend of gold today.📊 Gold is currently consolidating around 3650, with 3655-3665 forming short-term resistance above. The 4H MACD indicator is correcting a top divergence. Having first touched this resistance level in the European session, gold may experience a pullback. 📉As the price of gold continues to rise, the short-term support also moves up. Pay attention to the short-term support area formed by 3640-3630. 🌈If gold retraces support and then rebounds above this resistance level, it could first reach 3675, or even reach a new high of 3690-3700, as we anticipated yesterday.🚀 Intraday operations are mainly long at low levels, supplemented by short at high levels, and participate in trading in key ranges.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP-Halson
XAUUSD: Consolidating the bullish momentumHi everyone, it’s Ken! At this moment, gold is shining with strong appeal. The market is moving within a steep channel, and price action continues to respect its structure, forming higher highs without showing weakness. Not long ago, gold broke a key resistance level and might come back to retest it. Interestingly, this area also aligns with the “golden zone” from the last breakout. If buyers defend it well, the bullish outlook remains valid, with the next target aiming toward 3,660 – the channel’s peak. As long as price stays above the support and the rising trendline, the uptrend remains intact. However, if it slips below, chances of a deeper pullback will rise. Stay patient, wait for confirmation before entering, and always protect your capital with proper risk management. Wishing you success!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kenn_Nguyen
11
Gold on upswingTechnical analysis: As discussed on my previous commentary about fragile DX standard (right now it's few percents up) Gold is already giving new signs of Buying continuation (however it is important to keep Bullish underlying Medium-term trend on top of the importance list as well). Current Buying spike on Gold came as no surprise however Gold does not represent anymore (as it has been) sole hedge asset against Inflation, as current Trading week is projected to be Bearish for DX due NFP debacle (still without firm recovery and near Higher Low’s extension), hence Bullish and should be adding Buying pressure on Hourly 4 chart’s on Gold. Technically, I am certain also that Gold should Price in a Top here (temporary or not) since it is critically Overbought / if Support zone near Higher Low’s break and continuation of Technical Bearish perspective (once the Fundamental pressure is Priced in and digested by market where Price-action is expected to engage the correction). Taking all aspects in consideration and ignoring Technical necessity for a correction, I expect aggressive uptrend extension towards #3,700.80 psychological benchmark posing as an Higher High’s extension as well, if #3,652.80 - #3,662.80 Resistance zone gives away. If Support zone breaks however (#3,622.80 - #3,627.80), expect contact with #3,600.80 benchmark. My position: I am constantly using my dip Buying strategy and will continue Buying Gold from my key entry points (excellent Profits by now) Buying Gold from #3,630.80 many times throughout yesterday's session. #3,645.80 is keeping Gold away from touching #3,652.80 benchmark.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by goldenBear88
THE KOG REPORT - NFP UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: We published the NFP report earlier together with the red boxes and the targets above the key level which as you can see have worked very well today. We're not approaching the final destination but we're too high for anyone to attempt going long here! We're also too late in the session on a Friday to attempt any more trades so we'll leave it there and mark it completed. Support now stands at the 3570-5 level with resistance 3600-10. RED BOXES: Break above 3555 for 3561✅, 3568✅, 3576✅ and 3588✅ in extension of the move Break below 3540 for 3533, 3530, 3520, 3506 and 3490 in extension of the move Wishing you all a great weekend ahead, and we'll see you on Sunday for the KOG Report and our view for the week. Please do take some time to hit that boost button on the reports we share, without your support there is no point in us sharing this for free. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
XAUUSD – Gold Faces Strong ResistanceTechnical Outlook Main Trend: Gold has been rallying within an ascending channel since late August but recently broke out and is now consolidating below resistance. Key Resistance: 3,665 – 3,670 USD. Price has been rejected multiple times here, showing strong selling pressure. Key Support: 3,600 – 3,605 USD. A break below this zone may trigger further bearish omentum. EMA & RSI: Price is testing short-term EMAs while RSI shows bearish divergence – signaling potential downside pressure. Fibonacci Levels: The 3,600 zone aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the latest bullish leg, making it a critical pivot. Trading Strategies Bearish Scenario (Primary Setup) Look for Short opportunities if price fails at 3,665 – 3,670. Target 1: 3,630 Target 2: 3,600 Stop Loss: Above 3,675 Bullish Scenario (Alternative Setup) If price closes above 3,670 (H1/H4 with volume confirmation), bullish momentum could resume. Target: 3,700 – 3,720 Conclusion Gold is currently testing a major resistance area. A short-term correction toward 3,600 is likely before the next clear direction develops. Watch price action closely at 3,665 and 3,600 for confirmation of entry. - Follow for more intraday strategies and save this analysis if you find it useful.
FX:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
1
3500? No, it’s 3700! 💡Message Strategy On Tuesday (September 9), international gold prices hit a new high, firmly above the $3,600 mark broken the previous day. Rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have led to a weakening dollar and lower bond yields, boosting investor demand for precious metals. Gold prices have risen nearly 39% so far this year, continuing their strength after a 27% jump in 2024. This is primarily supported by a weaker dollar, aggressive central bank purchases, dovish monetary policies, and heightened global uncertainty. The dollar index fell to a near seven-week low, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained near a five-month low. 📊Technical aspects In the 4-hour chart, the stochastic indicator continues to form a golden cross, which is a bullish signal. The MACD double lines are glued together and the high level is blunt. In terms of form, the market continues to rise. The 4-hour signal shows that the high point of the market has not yet appeared! It is still mainly low-long; the current support level of the sideways market is around 3630. In the daily K-line, the stochastic indicator continues to retest the golden cross upward, signaling a three-day winning streak. Today's daily K-line is essentially a bullish candle, but the issue lies in the magnitude. Calculated from the 3500-3120 range, the upward movement here is 380 points. Gold's current trend has been consistent with our expectations, and the signal targets are being met. 💰Strategy Package Long Position:3625-3635，SL:3600，Target:3680，3700
TVC:GOLDLong
by TheodoreSilas
XAUUSD – CPI Today: Liquidity Sweep Scenario & Trading Plan📊 Market View Gold (XAUUSD) is sliding under short-term resistance (descending trendline), showing sellers are still in control short-term. On the M30 chart, buy-side liquidity levels are clearly stacked: 3,624 → 3,612 → 3,599 → 3,586. 👉 During the European session, expect a breakdown liquidity sweep toward these support zones before any bullish reaction. 📈 CPI View – US Session Soft CPI (below expectations) → Weaker USD, lower yields → Gold may bounce strongly from 3,612 / 3,599 / 3,586 and retest trendline/resistance. Hot CPI (above expectations) → Stronger USD, higher yields → Gold may break 3,612, sweep deeper to 3,599 or 3,586, then recover. ⚠️ High risk of news traps: the first reaction can reverse quickly. Wait for retests + confirmation candles before entering. 🔑 Key Levels Dynamic Resistance (trendline): 3,643 – 3,646 React Zone FIB: 3,650 – 3,654 OBS Sell Zone: 3,665 Support/Liquidity Zones: 3,624.36 (key zone support BUY) 3,612.60 (CP/React FIB) 3,599.31 (BUY ZONE) 3,586.49 (END LIQUIDITY – BUY ZONE) 📌 Trading Plan 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,646 – 3,648 SL: 3,652 TP: 3,640 → 3,635 → 3,630 → 3,620 → 3,610 → ??? 🔵 BUY SCALP: 3,612 – 3,610 SL: 3,605 TP: 3,616 → 3,620 → 3,625 → 3,630 → ??? 🔵 BUY ZONE (Primary): 3,600 – 3,598 SL: 3,592 TP: 3,605 → 3,610 → 3,615 → 3,620 → 3,630 → 3,640 → ??? Backup BUY: (if liquidity sweep deepens) 3,58x Hard SL: 3,578 ❗ If 3,578 breaks, don’t rush to re-buy—CPI volatility can extend moves further. ⚠️ Notes & Risk Reduce position size around the CPI release. Always wait for confirmation (pin bar / engulfing / retest) before entering. Use staggered TPs to lock in profits early. An M30 close above 3,654 invalidates near-term shorts and opens 3,665. ✅ Summary Gold could sweep liquidity into the buy zones before bouncing. Trade the reaction: SELL at 3,646–48 on rejection, BUY at 3,612/3,600 on clean bounce, and reserve backup BUY at 3,58x with tight risk. 👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for real-time updates and BIGWIN setups during CPI volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
1