Gold surges towards $4,000Gold surges towards $4,000! Multiple positive factors fuel historic gains, but be wary of a post-holiday technical correction.
🚀 Market Update: Gold hits another record high, bulls are unstoppable
Today, spot gold hit a new all-time high of $3,977, just shy of the crucial $4,000 mark! This rally, initiated from a low of $3,311, has already seen cumulative gains exceeding $600, making it one of the strongest bullish rallies in the gold market ever.📈
🌪️ The three fundamental drivers continue to power forward.
🕊️ The Federal Reserve's dovish tone is resounding.
Markets are pricing in two more rate cuts in October and December, with the US dollar under pressure, hovering at 98.28.
Expectations of falling real interest rates are strengthening the appeal of gold assets.
🏛️ US political deadlock intensifies.
The government shutdown enters its sixth day, with both parties still unable to reach a consensus on a spending bill.
Any extension could further drag on the economy and boost safe-haven demand.
💣 Geopolitical risks continue to rise.
Ukraine launches long-range strikes on Russian military facilities, escalating the conflict.
Despite progress in Middle East peace talks, regional stability remains fragile.
📊 Technical Analysis: Hidden Concerns Amid Strength
The bullish trend remains intact.
The daily chart is steadily rising along the short-term moving average, with no signs of a topping.
Key support has moved up to 3946, with the watershed at 3925.
Overbought risks are accumulating.
The RSI remains in overbought territory, with increasing technical pullback pressure.
$4,000 is not only a psychological barrier but also a target profit zone for institutions.
🎯 Trading Strategy: Follow the trend, beware of a post-holiday market reversal.
Short-Term Trading (Pre-holiday)
Entry Zone: 3946-3950, enter a long position upon stabilization.
Risk Control: Stop-loss below 3920.
Target: 3980 → 4000 (a breakout could see upward movement towards 4020).
Medium-Term Warning (Post-holiday)
Watch for progress on the US fiscal budget. A resolution could constitute short-term bearish news. Domestic markets may gap up at the open, so be wary of the risk of chasing higher prices. Ideal medium-term long position: 3800-3850.
💡 Practical Experience Sharing
"In this surging market, countless top-guessers have been taught a lesson by the market. Remember: there is only one top, but following the trend can yield multiple profits. When the trend is so clear, we should follow it, not fight it."
⚠️ Special Reminder
Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes and Thursday's Powell speech will serve as new catalysts. If the government shutdown continues, volatility will further increase. Never use all your positions to chase assets that have already risen sharply.
💎 Summary and Outlook
Gold, with its fundamentals and technicals resonating, is still expected to challenge $4,000 in the short term. However, the risk of a post-holiday correction cannot be ignored. Conservative investors should wait for a pullback to position themselves, while aggressive investors should strictly follow the trend with a light position.
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