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XAUUSD — Decline Reaction Not Yet Confirmed as ReversalXAUUSD — Decline Reaction Not Yet Confirmed as Reversal | Favor Buying on Fibonacci Pullbacks 🟡 Summary: The rapid early session decline hasn't broken the upward structure. Gold continues to move within the Fibonacci expansion wave; prioritize buy-the-dip at confluence zones. Sell orders are only for short-term scalping when there's a clear rejection signal. 📊 Technical Analysis (H1) Structure & Price Behavior Price is climbing in a stair-step pattern, with recent adjustments not breaching key lows, leaning towards a trend-following pullback. The chart shows multiple Fib expansion levels (0.618/0.786/1.618/2.618); the 4120–4135 zone is the short-term trading hub, with clusters above at 4160–4188–4179 and further at 4200–4220. Volume has slightly decreased compared to previous sessions → easier for price to bounce at support before continuing. Price Zones to Watch Resistance: 4160–4162, 4179, 4200. Support: 4116–4118, 4102, 4073, 4062–4065, 4024. Significance: 4062–4065 coincides with Fib + old resistance (good confluence for buying); 4116–4118 is the nearest retest; 4160–4162 is a sell retest only for scalping. If 4116–4118 holds and H1 closes above 4130, the probability of retesting 4155/4188 increases. If 4062–4065 breaks and stays below 4057, the adjustment range may extend to 4024. 📰 Fundamental Factors (Highlights) Central banks continue to buy gold, supporting foundational demand. On October 14, gold led the commodity basket this year; expectations of Fed rate cuts in upcoming sessions are the main driver for holding gold. Gold ETF: attracted an additional ~2 billion USD (~14 tons) last week; YTD cumulative ~68 billion USD, annual demand ~645 tons (second only to the 2020 record). ⇒ The cash flow picture supports a medium-term uptrend, although short-term fluctuations remain around Fib/resistance levels. 🎯 Trading Plan (European–US Session) — if–then Scenario 1 — BUY near retest (priority) Entry: 4116–4118 SL: 4110 TP: 4134 → 4155 → 4188 → 4222 Condition: if price retests 4116–4118 and a confirmation candle/bounce appears on H1. Scenario 2 — BUY at Fib + old resistance (backup) Entry: 4062–4065 SL: 4057 TP: 4082 → 4098 → 4115 → 4135 Condition: only activate if there's a bounce at 4062–4065; better if reclaiming 4073/4102 thereafter. Scenario 3 — SELL reaction (scalping) Entry: 4160–4162 SL: 4168 TP: 4134 → 4118 → 4100 → 4078 Note: only sell when there's a clear rejection signal (long wick/distribution volume); do not chase price. Invalidation & Risk Management Losing 4057 → reduces buy priority, wait for new signals at 4024. Risk only ≤1–2% per trade; adhere to SL first, position later. 🛡️ Summary Bias: Upward; current decline reaction not yet confirmed as reversal. Strategy: Prioritize buying at 4116–4118 and 4062–4065; sell only to scalp at 4160–4162 when signaled. Levels to Watch: 4102 – 4073 – 4024 – 4179 – 4200. Note: This article is for reference purposes only, not investment advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steven-GoldTrading
2
GOLD sets new record amid global risk waveSpot OANDA:XAUUSD continued to break out in the Asian trading session on Thursday morning (October 16), hitting a record high of $4,239.07/ounce, as investors increasingly sought the precious metal as a safe haven from increasingly complex fluctuations in the global economy. In the previous session, gold closed at $4,207.85/ounce, up $65.94 (equivalent to 1.59%), and continued to increase by more than $25 today. Since the beginning of the week, gold prices have increased by nearly 5%, continuing a strong upward trend since mid-August. The rise in gold prices comes as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signals it will maintain its easy monetary policy path. Speaking this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is “on track” to cut its benchmark interest rate by another 0.25% later this month, in response to signs of weakening growth and external uncertainty. Lower borrowing costs typically increase the appeal of non-yielding gold compared to bonds and currencies. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s latest comments have added to the market’s tension. Responding to a reporter’s question about trade relations with China, Mr. Trump said: “Yes, we are in a trade war right now.” This statement, quoted by Bloomberg News, has raised concerns about long-term damage to the global economy, a factor that often drives capital flows to safe-haven assets such as gold. In addition, the risk of a US government shutdown and the “downdraft effect” when investors simultaneously sell bonds and foreign currencies to switch to holding gold and safe-haven assets, further strengthening the precious metal’s price increase. Strong central bank gold buying has also played a significant role in the rally. Personally, I believe that much of this year’s rally has been “driven by physical demand”, as many central banks “aggressively add to reserves to hedge against sovereign debt risks and expansionary monetary policies”. So far, gold prices have risen more than 60% in 2025, reflecting a clear shift in global investment thinking, where gold has once again asserted its central role as a source of financial confidence in times of political and monetary uncertainty. Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Spot XAUUUSD continues to maintain a strong uptrend, currently trading around $4,239/ounce, up nearly 0.75% on the day and approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance zone at $4,213 – $4,286, corresponding to the top of the short-term rising channel. Trend Structure • The medium-term uptrend remains solid, with a series of steadily rising candles and the MA50 maintaining a strong upward slope, reinforcing the bullish momentum. • The uptrend channel remains effective, with prices currently hovering at the upper boundary of the channel, indicating that the buying momentum is too strong in the short term. • The RSI remains above 70, indicating a technically overbought state, but there is no clear reversal signal yet; this usually signals a slight correction before the uptrend continues. Key Technical Zones • Resistance: 4.286 (0.786 Fib) and 4.378 (100% extension target). • Support: 4.162 (0.5 Fib), 4.059 (old confluence – dynamic support), further 3.947 (balance). Intraday Scenario • The main trend remains bullish, but the risk of a short-term correction increases as prices approach the Fibonacci resistance zone. • Day traders can wait for a buyback around $4,160 – $4,180, the confluence between the 0.5 Fib and the midline of the rising channel, where bottom-fishing buying is likely to emerge. • The short-term target is $4,280 – $4,300/oz, corresponding to the upper boundary of the rising channel. • Technical stop-loss should be placed below $4,050 (psychological support and short-term MA). Overview Speculative money still dominates, but the market is showing signs of needing a “technical breather” to consolidate the new price base. In the context of the Fed easing signals and escalating geopolitical tensions, the main uptrend of gold is not yet threatened, but short-term trading should prioritize the strategy of buying on corrections instead of chasing high prices. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4298 - 4296⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4302 →Take Profit 1 4290 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4284 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4144 - 4146⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4140 →Take Profit 1 4152 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4158
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
Gold: Keep an eye on the 4280–4300 rangeAs we predicted for today’s target range, gold is currently fluctuating between 4230 and 4250. After stabilizing above 4230, it once again staged a strong rally, peaking at 4250.91 before pulling back with a certain decline — this also confirms the resistance effect at the 4250 level today. However, we confirm that a break above 4250 can be achieved in an instant. After breaking through and stabilizing above 4250 next, we will focus on the resistance zone around 4280–4300. For short-term support below, the key focus remains on the range of 4200–4175.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Clarke_analysis
2
Gold Bulls in Control — Eyes on $4,200 Breakout📰 Key Fundamental Drivers Gold remains elevated above $4,100/oz, consolidating after recent surges. Safe-haven demand is strong, supported by persistent U.S.-China tensions and global economic uncertainty. Market expectations for Fed cuts remain robust, with ~99% chance priced in for October and ~94% for December. Institutional flows (ETF & central banks) continue to add structural support. Some caution from Fed officials about inflation and pacing of cuts could moderate upside in the near term. 📈 Technical & Price Structure Support zones to watch: ~$4,100 → ~$4,050 → ~$4,000 Resistance / upside targets: $4,200 → $4,300 → $4,400+ Gold is in a strong uptrend, but short-term momentum is overextended. A pullback or consolidation is healthy and expected. If price holds above support, the upside bias remains intact. A break below $4,000 would be an early warning. 🎯 Bias & Trade Strategy Bias: Bullish overall, with caution in the short term. Trade ideas: Buy on pullbacks into support zones (e.g. $4,050–$4,100) with tight stops. Breakout longs if price decisively clears $4,200. Scalp / reaction shorts near resistance zones if rejection patterns appear. Pay attention to upcoming U.S. data, Fed commentary, and any sudden USD strength as risk factors. ⚠️ Risk Note Risk only 1–2% per trade Confirm setups with volume/candle patterns Avoid over-leveraging — gold volatility remains high 📌 For educational purposes only – Trade Smart. Athens
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AthensBySahan
1
Gold rebounds, uptrend intact1. Market Overview After a brief dip to $4090, gold (XAU/USD) quickly rebounded strongly to around $4125, showing that buying pressure is still dominant. Safe-haven demand remains solid as the USD stabilizes and U.S. Treasury yields ease slightly. However, traders are now more cautious after the previous sharp volatility, keeping gold in a short-term accumulation phase around $4110–$4130. 2. Technical Analysis • Near Resistance: $4132 – $4140 • Strong Resistance: $4155 – $4168 • Near Support: $4105 – $4090 • Deep Support: $4078 – $4060 • RSI (H1): 58 – Neutral, slightly bullish bias • EMA20 (H1): $4110 – Trending upward, acting as dynamic support • Price Structure: Higher low on H1 → confirms continuation of the bullish trend 3. Outlook Gold remains in a strong bullish structure, and the recent decline is seen as a technical pullback for reaccumulation. If the price holds above $4110, gold is likely to continue rising toward $4140–$4155 in the next sessions. Conversely, a break below $4090 would signal a deeper correction toward $4075. 4. Trading Strategy 🔺 BUY XAU/USD Entry: 4110 – 4105 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips 🛑 SL: 4100 🔻 SELL XAU/USD Entry: 4150 – 4155 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips 🛑 SL: 4159
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
2
XAUUSD STRCTUREGold is forming an ascending bullish pattern, indicating continued buying pressure within an uptrend. Today, price reacted to the downside and tested a key support zone, where buyers have shown signs of re-entry. The market may be preparing for a quick rebound to the upside if bullish momentum confirms. If price breaks above 4,142 resistance and closes above it with strong volume, we could see a continuation to the upside, possibly testing the 4,200 zone next. "Thank you for your support! If you found this idea valuable or learned something new, please consider liking and leaving a comment. I’d really appreciate hearing your feedback and thoughts."
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Pintu_sahu01
1
XAUUSD: Rally can Reach new ATH - $4520 pointsHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup. Market Analysis Gold has been in a very strong and complex uptrend. We saw the price break out of an initial range and then establish a major Trend Line that has guided it higher, breaking through key levels like Support 2 at 3670 and Support 1 at 4020. Currently, the most significant event is that the price has broken out above its main Trend Line. After this powerful move, the market has entered a natural corrective phase and is pulling back towards this broken line for a classic retest. This is a critical area to watch. My Scenario & Strategy I'm looking for the price to complete its correction down to this main ascending trend line. The key signal for me would be a confirmed and strong bounce from this dynamic support, which would tell me the pullback is over and the primary trend is ready to accelerate. Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this bounce. A successful defense of the trend line would validate the long scenario. My new target for the next impulsive wave higher is 4520, which would represent a new ATH. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ratner
3
Mission Complete: 4245-4250：Time to Flip Short on Gold!Gold has already reached a high of around 4246, and its upward momentum has relatively weakened. To be honest, under the current market conditions, I do not advocate aggressively chasing gold above 4240, because as gold continues to rise, more and more callback risks are accumulated! We can also see that each surge in gold is followed by a clear pullback. So even if we choose to short gold, we can still get a good profit margin in the short term! Although gold is on an overall upward trend, I still divide the rising channel into three areas; the first area: 4250-4220; the second area: 4220-4190, and the third area: 4190-4160. As gold rises, the technical traction of the lower area on the gold price becomes stronger. Therefore, according to the first area division, in the short term, gold has the need to at least retreat to the area near 4220. Even after falling below the area near 4220, it may continue the downward trend to the 4220-4190 area. Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, I would prioritize trying to short gold in the 4245-4255 area, first targeting the short-term retracement area: 4230-4220 as the target. If you’re following my trading strategy, don’t just watch — prepare your next move. 💬 Like & Follow for real-time updates and in-depth gold insights. 📈 Follow me for real-time gold insights &to my traders' channel for exclusive setups in bio！
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WaveRider_Steffen
1
Gold has the potential to set a new highHey everyone, it's Kilian here! Gold is at a very interesting phase right now. After experiencing a strong price surge within a parallel ascending channel, the market is now showing signs of consolidation at these high levels. This suggests that the buyers still have control, and the bullish momentum remains intact for now. If the price manages to break through this area with a strong bullish candle and high volume, it will confirm the dominance of the buyers and open up the potential for a new rally towards the target around 4.130, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. However, if the price fails to break through and is instead rejected by strong selling pressure, the appearance of a large bearish candle could signal that the upward momentum is weakening. In this scenario, the price may fall back to test the lower boundary of the channel.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kiliann_Dang
5
Gold Setup: Structure Favors the BuyersGold continues to trade within a bullish structure, forming higher highs after rebounding cleanly from the 4180–4185 support zone. A minor pullback is offering a potential swing buy opportunity, aiming for the next resistance around 4225 as buyers remain strong above intraday support. Key Levels: Buy Entry: 4200 Take Profit: 4225 Stop Loss: 4183 Reasoning: Technically, the 1H chart shows an established uptrend with a series of higher highs and higher lows. The price recently respected its new support and is maintaining bullish momentum, signaling continuation toward the next resistance area. Fundamentally, weaker U.S. dollar sentiment and stable Treasury yields continue to support gold, while traders await U.S. economic updates that may impact Fed rate expectations. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage risk and follow your own trading plan before entering any trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SwingTrade_Concept
1
One Step Ahead of the MarketHey guys and girls, Look at this chart, Do you see what I see? (we are heading into a bear market). (RSI= 86, kiss of Death) a chart is worth a thousand words! Technical Section (a top is in place- ABC bear market): Wave 1 = $ 850 Wave 3 = $ 1650 Wave 3 > 1.618 x length of Wave 1----> Wave 5 (Max) = 2.618 x length of Wave 1 (Target = $ 3300) Fundamental (Bearish): Let's look at the reasons: a- Trump's trade war is over; as a result, there is no strong overriding trend. b- Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady Conclusion: The trend is losing momentum and a top is in place. Target = $ 2700 Invalidation level = $ 4170
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BTC-XLM
8