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Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,965, with the upside capped at the $3,981–$3,990 resistance zone. The chart shows a recent rejection at resistance and sellers stepping in. Unless bulls break above $3,990, the bias remains bearish with a retest of $3,923–$3,915 support zone likely. 🎯 Trade Setup Entry: $3,81–$3,989 (near resistance) Stop Loss: $3,993 Take Profit: $3,930 / $3,915 Risk-Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 4.53 🌐 Macro Background Gold is under renewed pressure as US–China trade optimism undermines safe-haven demand. U.S. President Trump said a trade deal with China could be finalized this week, which boosted market sentiment. As Kitco’s senior analyst Jim Wyckoff noted: “The U.S.-China trade tensions have really diminished, with a possible trade deal later this week after a summit meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump. That’s bearish for safe-haven metals.” 【FXStreet】 On the monetary policy side, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps, lowering the Fed Funds Rate to 3.75%–4.00%. CME’s FedWatch tool shows markets have priced in nearly a 100% probability of this move, with further easing expected in December. While this provides some support to gold, trade optimism currently outweighs Fed dovishness. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: $3,981 – $3,990 Support: $3,923 – $3,915 Psychological Level: $4,000 📌 Trade Summary Gold remains capped below $3,990 and is at risk of further declines toward $3,930–$3,915. Short positions near resistance are favoured, unless Fed surprises with a deeper cut or US–China trade talks collapse, which could flip sentiment. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ATFX_Global
1
Gold has entered a correction phase!Gold futures rose slightly but gains remain limited as investors assess the U.S.–China trade deal and potential Fed rate cuts. Market sentiment stays cautious, with traders awaiting key U.S. data for direction. Below 4,025: Bearish bias toward 3,982 → 3,960 → 3,921. Above 4,025: Bullish recovery toward 4,053 → 4,104. Pivot: 4,025 Support: 3,982 · 3,960 · 3,921 Resistance: 4,053 · 4,080 · 4,104 Gold remains bearish below 4,025, but a confirmed break above 4,053 could shift sentiment to bullish in the near term.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ourhum
1
XAUUSD: Exploring Potential 30% Upside in Safe-Haven Asset XAUUSD: Exploring Potential 30% Upside in Safe-Haven Asset Amid Geopolitical Tensions – SWOT and Intrinsic Value Insights 📊 Introduction As of October 28, 2025, XAUUSD (Gold/USD) is experiencing a short-term correction following record highs above $4,300 earlier this month, trading around $3,950 per ounce. This pullback reflects improved risk appetite in equity markets amid stabilizing U.S. economic data and reduced recession fears, with the S&P 500 up 2% week-to-date. However, broader macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation at 3.2% year-over-year and central bank gold purchases exceeding 800 tonnes year-to-date, underpin a supportive environment. Sector dynamics highlight gold's role as a hedge against geopolitical risks, such as escalating Middle East tensions and U.S.-China trade uncertainties, though volatility is elevated due to a strengthening USD index near 105. 🔍 SWOT Analysis **Strengths 💪**: Gold serves as a proven inflation hedge and store of value, with central banks accumulating over 900 tonnes projected for 2025 per analyst estimates, driving demand. Its liquidity is unmatched, with daily trading volumes surpassing $200 billion, and physical holdings in ETFs like GLD have risen 15% year-over-year to 1,200 tonnes. Low correlation to equities (0.2 beta) enhances portfolio diversification, while above-ground stocks of approximately 218,000 tonnes ensure scarcity amid annual mine production of just 3,500 tonnes. **Weaknesses ⚠️**: As a non-yielding asset, gold incurs opportunity costs in high-interest environments, with U.S. 10-year real yields at 1.8% pressuring holdings. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) for miners have risen 8% to around $1,600-1,700 per ounce due to energy and labor inflation, per industry reports, potentially squeezing margins if prices dip. Storage and insurance fees add 0.5-1% annual costs for physical investors. **Opportunities 🌟**: Heightened geopolitical risks, including potential escalations in Ukraine and Taiwan, could boost safe-haven inflows, similar to the 25% price surge post-2024 elections. Monetary policy easing by the Fed (projected 50bps cuts by year-end) and ECB may weaken the USD, favoring gold, with forecasts targeting $4,500+ by mid-2026. Emerging market demand, led by India and China (combined 1,500 tonnes annual consumption), offers growth amid de-dollarization trends. **Threats 🚩**: A stronger USD from hawkish Fed pivots or robust U.S. growth could cap upside, as seen in the recent 5% correction. Competition from high-yield bonds and cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin up 25% YTD) diverts capital, while environmental regulations may increase AISC by 10-15% over the next five years. Oversupply risks from recycled gold (1,200 tonnes annually) persist if economic slowdowns reduce jewelry demand. 💰 Intrinsic Value Calculation Adopting a value investing approach for commodities, we estimate gold's intrinsic value using a monetary backing model, which assesses its role as a reserve asset relative to money supply, incorporating a margin of safety (20% discount). Key inputs from public data: U.S. M2 money supply at $22.195 trillion, U.S. gold reserves at 8,133 tonnes (≈261.5 million ounces), and an assumed fair coverage ratio of 6% (historical average post-Bretton Woods, adjusted for modern dilution; current coverage ≈4.7% at $3,950/oz). Formula: Intrinsic Value per Ounce = (M2 Money Supply × Coverage Ratio) / Gold Reserves in Ounces - M2 × 6% = $22.195T × 0.06 ≈ $1.332T - $1.332T / 261.5M ounces ≈ $5,092 Apply 20% margin of safety: $5,092 × 0.8 ≈ $4,074 At current price ≈$3,950, XAUUSD appears undervalued by ≈3-29% (factoring upside to $5,092 fair value aligned with central bank demand and inflation metrics). No debt flags apply directly, but sustainability relies on demand outpacing monetary expansion. 📈 Undervalued. 📈 Entry Strategy Insights Institutional strategies emphasize support zones near $3,900-3,940 (aligned with 50-day SMA and recent lows) for unleveraged, long-term positions through dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Scale in during 3-5% dips, leveraging non-repainting volume indicators to validate rebounds from oversold levels. Ideal for building 5-10% allocations over 1-3 months, with targets at $4,200 for partial exits on breakouts. 🚀 Spot zones. ⚠️ Risk Management Allocate 1-5% of portfolio to gold to buffer against volatility, diversifying with bonds or equities for balance. Implement trailing stops 5-10% below entry (e.g., $3,750) and maintain long-term holds if macroeconomic hedges strengthen, tracking central bank reports and USD trends. Caution on sharp reversals from rate hikes or equity rallies. 🔚 Conclusion Gold's entrenched role as a monetary hedge, coupled with undervalued metrics and robust demand drivers, supports potential growth to $4,074+, with safety margins embedded. Key takeaways: Prioritize geopolitical monitoring for demand spikes, cross-verify money supply data independently. This is educational content only; not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DCAChampion
1
Gold 1H - Intraday Trading Plan 📅 Date: October 29, 2025 | Session Update: 13:00 VN Time 📈 Market Context Gold remains under pressure after yesterday’s failed recovery above the $4,030 mark. Stronger U.S. economic data and firm Treasury yields continue to weigh on the metal, while investors await upcoming inflation expectations data for further direction. Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the $3,975 – $4,000 region continues to act as a key liquidity and accumulation zone, where large orders from institutional players may still be positioned. For today’s session, expect choppy movement within $3,970 – $4,040, with possible liquidity sweeps around both ends before the next impulsive leg forms. 🔎 Technical Outlook (1H / Smart Money Concept) Overall market structure: Corrective, following a failure to hold above $4,050 in the previous session. Liquidity grab: Below $3,980 and above $4,030 has created short-term imbalance zones. Discount demand zone: $3,975 – $3,985 Premium supply zone: $4,035 – $4,050 A confirmed BOS (Break of Structure) above $4,015 on the 15M timeframe would signal a potential bullish intraday reversal. 🟢 Buy Setup (Reversal / Accumulation Bias) Entry Zone: 3,975 – 3,985 Stop-Loss: 3,968 Take-Profit Targets: → TP1: 4,015 → TP2: 4,035 → TP3: 4,060 Rationale: Price continues to respect the psychological level at $4,000, suggesting possible accumulation. Wait for BOS or ChoCH confirmation on M15 before executing buy positions. A push above $4,015 could signal the start of a reaccumulation phase toward the premium zone. 🔴 Sell Setup (Continuation Scenario) Entry Zone: 4,035 – 4,050 Stop-Loss: 4,062 Take-Profit Targets: → TP1: 4,010 → TP2: 3,980 → TP3: 3,950 Rationale: The $4,035 – $4,050 area aligns with a premium pricing zone, where short-term sellers may defend liquidity. Look for bearish ChoCH confirmation on the lower timeframe to confirm rejection. This setup favors continuation trades in case gold fails to reclaim the intraday structure. ⚠️ Risk Management Tips Avoid entries during major U.S. data releases — high volatility can trigger fakeouts and wide spreads. Always wait for clear market structure confirmation before execution. Take partial profits at near-term liquidity pools and trail stop-loss as the trade progresses. Keep your risk per position below 1% — volatility remains elevated within this tight range. ✅ Summary Gold is consolidating near the $4,000 key support zone, showing early signs of reaccumulation but still lacking confirmation. A break and hold above $4,015 could ignite a short-term bullish move toward $4,050 – $4,060. Conversely, a clean break below $3,970 would likely expose $3,950 and extend the bearish correction. Patience and structure confirmation remain the key — liquidity traps are likely before any clear directional move. FOLLOW KHANG_TRADER for precision market insights ⚡
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Lucy_Avana
1
XAUUSD: Bullish Reversal Setup From Triangle SupportHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup. Market Analysis Gold (XAUUSD) continues to trade within a larger bullish market structure, maintaining higher lows above its key ascending Trend Line. After a strong impulsive rally that pushed the price above the 4,200 resistance, the market faced rejection near the top of the Range and entered a corrective phase. This correction evolved into a triangle pattern, with price now testing the Triangle Support Line, aligning closely with the horizontal Support area around 4,020 – 4,000 — a historically important demand zone. Currently, the price is consolidating near the lower boundary of this structure, showing early signs of stabilization. This region also coincides with the previous breakout point, adding further confluence for potential buyer interest. My Scenario & Strategy I expect the price to hold above the Triangle Support Line and form a bullish reversal structure, signaling that buyers are once again defending this level. A confirmed breakout above the Triangle Resistance Line would indicate renewed bullish momentum and a potential continuation of the overall uptrend. My primary target zone lies around 4,215, where previous resistance and the upper range boundary converge. However, if the support near 4,000 fails to hold, it could trigger a deeper correction toward 3,950, where the next demand zone is located. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity for traders anticipating a rebound from a major technical confluence zone. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ratner
7
When the market was confused, I shorted at 3975#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD Yesterday's short profit marked a good start to this week's trading. Today we will continue this good habit and continue to make profits. First, the weekly MA5 moving average has broken below and is moving closer to the MA10 moving average. Secondly, through the hourly chart and 4H chart, we can find that the bears still dominate the market. Then our trading idea is very clear, which is to focus on shorting on rebounds. Gold has already fallen below 3950, so it is likely to hit the 3900 integer mark next, or even 3880-3870, or even the weekly MA10 around 3835. However, in the short term, I still recommend not blindly chasing shorts and be wary of a possible rebound in the short term. Conservative traders can wait for a rebound to 3960-3975 before attempting to continue shorting gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Miracle-Walker_GC
1
Update Two 4-Hour Gold Analysis Hello Traders So far, yesterday's analysis target has been touched, but the seller is still present in the market, and today the 4-hour seller entered the market, and the long-term 4-hour analysis that we had last week gained more strength, the 4-hour sellers target was defined as 3773, which was explained in the relevant post about the entry of sellers. So, every pullback will still have more sellers in the market. For the sell, all the yellow lines of the TPs settled by the candlestick failure act as current resistance and are considered the pullback zone. Good luck. Links to the two analyses:
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by kinshinreza
1
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure TVC:GOLD Gold rebounded from the $3,931–3,937 support zone, regaining traction above $3,950. The chart shows potential upside toward the $3,981–3,988 resistance zone, though price is still within a short-term range. If buyers maintain momentum, a break above $3,988 could open the way to $4,000. Conversely, failure to hold above $3,931 may trigger renewed downside pressure. 🎯 Trade Setup Entry: $3,937 – $3,931 (support retest) Stop Loss: $3,929 Take Profit: $3,981 – $3,987 Risk-Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 5.67 🌐 Macro Background Gold attracted safe-haven bids after snapping a four-day losing streak. As FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani notes: “The US Dollar drifts lower amid shutdown concerns, lending some support to Gold.” 【FXStreet】 The USD weakened despite the Fed’s hawkish stance, pressured by economic uncertainty from the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. The Trump–Xi meeting offered a softer equity market tone, reflecting lingering geopolitical caution. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps as expected, but Chair Powell rejected expectations of another December cut, limiting Gold’s upside. Traders now await FOMC member speeches for clues on the future rate-cut path. This combination leaves Gold supported by safe-haven demand but capped by Fed’s hawkish tilt. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: $3,981 – $3,988 Support: $3,931 – $3,937 Psychological Level: $4,000 📌 Trade Summary Gold holds firm above $3,950 with renewed safe-haven flows, but faces resistance near $3,985. A bullish setup favours buying dips into support ($3,931–3,937) with targets at $3,987. Caution is warranted as Fed commentary could inject volatility. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ATFX_Global
1
XAUUSD ANALYSIS🪙 XAU/USD – Market Insight (Breakout Confirmation) Structure Update Price has broken above the descending trendline, marking the first valid breakout after multiple lower-high rejections. The breakout candle closed above the diagonal, aligning with the Breaker Block + FVG (3,955–3,968) zone. This area now transitions from resistance into a potential support-retest zone. Current Context The broader trend remains bearish, but the breakout suggests a possible short-term retracement phase before trend continuation. The structure between 3,955–3,968 will decide whether price sustains momentum upward toward 3,985–3,994 (OB/Golden Reaction Zone) or rejects back to the 3,905 liquidity pocket. Scenarios to Monitor 1️⃣ Bullish Case (Continuation) Price holds above 3,955 and shows bullish confirmation at the retest zone. Next potential upside area: 3,985–3,994, where OB and equilibrium converge. Above 3,994, the next liquidity target lies around 4,010–4,020 (premium zone). 2️⃣ Bearish Case (Fake-out) If the candle closes below 3,955 after retest, the breakout invalidates. This would signal a liquidity sweep, opening room for a move back toward 3,905 and possibly the weak low near 3,880–3,890. Trader Lenses Scalper: Watch M1–M5 reactions within 3,955–3,968. A small rejection-retest can offer short-term confirmation bias. Intraday: Focus on M15–H1 structure holding above 3,955 before anticipating upside toward OB zone. Swing: Wait for H4 confirmation. The trendline break alone isn’t enough—need BOS above 3,994 to shift higher-timeframe bias. Market Sentiment Factors Gold remains sensitive to USD index moves and bond yields. Any hawkish Fed comment or strong US data may limit upside; weaker USD can support retracement strength. ⚠️ Disclaimer All analysis provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This does not constitute investment advice or a buy/sell signal. Always manage your risk and confirm entries with your own strategy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by long020629
1
Gold (XAU/USD) Sell Opportunity as Stronger U.S. Manufacturing D The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4, beating the forecast of 49.1, signaling a modest but meaningful improvement in U.S. manufacturing activity. This better-than-expected data indicates the U.S. economy remains resilient despite global headwinds, which in turn strengthens the U.S. dollar (USD). As the dollar gains traction, gold (XAU/USD) typically comes under pressure due to their inverse relationship. With the stronger USD outlook, we could see further downside movement in gold in the near term. Trade Setup: Instrument: XAU/USD Bias: Sell Entry Zone: Near 2,380 – 2,385 (adjust based on intraday resistance) Take-Profit Targets: TP1: 2,360 TP2: 2,340 Stop Loss: 2,395 (above recent swing high) Reasoning: Stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI supports the USD. Improved U.S. economic sentiment reduces safe-haven demand for gold. Technical resistance aligns with fundamental USD strength.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KofiHanan
1
The gold price is still in the process of correcting Wave 4The gold price is still in the process of correcting Wave 4, and nothing has changed structurally. Currently, the price continues to respect the corrective zone we have been monitoring, and the internal waves still support the complex WXY pattern. This tells us one thing: ⏳ The correction is not over. Once Wave 4 is complete, the real opportunity will begin: ✅ First impulse up → confirms trend resumption ✅ Pullback (Wave 2) → optimal entry point ✅ Wave 3 → highest potential reward 🚀 If the price breaks above the current resistance zone from here, we will monitor the alternative count. However, as long as the structure hasn't confirmed it, we remain patient. Remember: Corrections are designed to test patience. Wave 4 is historically the most complex wave; triangles, flats, and complex structures are common. Remain disciplined. Let the structure settle. The next leg up will be worth the wait.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by NouzTrader
2
Gold /XAUUSD long🎯 Idea Summary: · Direction: Long · Instrument: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) · Primary Timeframe: 4H · Bias: Bullish (Counter-trend bounce) 📊 Technical Rationale: · Market Structure: The longer-term trend is still bullish, but price has corrected into a major support zone. Looking for a bounce. · Key Levels: · Support: $2315** (Previous Resistance), **$2300 (Major Psychological & Swing Low) · Resistance: $2340** (Recent Swing High), **$2355 (21 EMA) · Price Action / Pattern: Price is approaching the $2315 support. Watching for a bullish reversal candle (like a hammer or bullish engulfing) for a confirmation signal. · Confluence: · The $2315 level coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last major up-move. · RSI is entering oversold territory (<30), suggesting selling pressure may be exhausting. ⚙️ Trade Setup: · Entry Zone: $2315 - $2320 (On a bullish confirmation candle) · Stop Loss: $2305 (Just below the key $2300 psychological level and the Fib level) · Take Profit Targets: · TP1: $2340 (First resistance, take 50% off) · TP2: $2350 (21 EMA & next resistance) · Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2.5 💡 Narrative / Fundamental Context: This is a mean-reversion play within a bull market.The confluence of a major Fibonacci level, prior support, and oversold RSI creates a high-probability zone for a technical bounce. A break below $2300 would signal a much deeper correction is likely. Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis and not financial advice. Trading commodities like gold carries a high level of risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and manage your risk appropriately.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Sthesh_Don_Billiato
1
GOLD (XAUUSD) — Market Sitting Below 3,980… What’s Next?Gold finally filled the Daily Fair Value Gaps below and we’re now sitting around 3,976 after a heavy pullback. Trend is still bullish overall, this looks like a normal correction after that vertical move up. I’m watching the current Daily FVG support between 3,950 – 3,980. If buyers defend this area → I’m looking for long entries. Buy Plan (Only if we see bullish reaction): • Entry zone: 3950 – 3980 • TP1: 4050 (small bounce liquidity) • TP2: 4150 (upper FVG) • TP3: 4250 if momentum is strong • SL: below 3930 (clean invalidation) Bearish invalidation: If 3,930 breaks and closes below FVG → gold likely continues down to 3,880 next demand area .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by romesh_prasanga
2
Gold price accumulation - sideways range⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week slightly lower but holds above Friday’s low during the Asian session. Easing US-China trade tensions lift risk appetite and weigh on the safe-haven metal, as reflected in stronger global equities. Still, dovish Fed expectations and a softer US Dollar help limit further losses. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: The US and ASEAN weekend tariff policy has a negative impact on gold prices, mainly accumulating buying power waiting for interest rate cuts. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: 4236 - 4238 SL 4243 TP1: $4220 TP2: $4200 TP3: $4185 🔥BUY GOLD zone: 3987 - 3985 SL 3980 TP1: $3998 TP2: $4010 TP3: $4030 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
4
Gold 4H — Bearish Control With FVG Above Gold continues to trade under bearish structural dominance, currently ranging between 4,161.535 (local supply) and 4,004.280 (structural support). The market remains in compression, forming a potential redistribution range within a broader downtrend. If price breaks below 4,004.280, it confirms a bearish BOS, opening the path toward the 4H Demand Zone (3,960–3,944) — where a reaction or further continuation could occur. Above, two unmitigated Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain at 4,240–4,320, serving as potential retracement targets if the market shows a corrective pullback after internal CHoCH. However, as long as 4,161 holds as resistance, bearish dominance stays intact. Range → Break → Mitigation → Continuation → Expansion. Until structure shifts, rallies are just liquidity grabs. Technical Outlook Summary: Dominant Bias: Bearish Range: 4,161 – 4,004 FVGs Above: 4,240–4,320 Demand Zone: 3,960–3,944 Break Below 4,004: Bearish continuation Break Above 4,161: Temporary retracement, not reversal NFA | AI generated | Educational Purpose Only OANDA:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Price-Action-Art
2