Best Lot Size for Gold Trading (XAUUSD) Explained
If you trade Gold with fix lot, I prepared for you a simple manual how to calculate the best lot size for your XAUUSD trading account.
Step 1
Find at least the last 10 trades that you took on Gold.
Step 2
Measure stop losses of all these trades in pips
Step 3
Find the trade with the biggest stop loss
In our example, the biggest stop loss is 680 pips
Step 4
Open position size calculator for XAUUSD
Step 5
Input your account size, 1,5% as the risk ratio.
In "stop loss in pips" field, write down the pip value of your biggest stop loss - 680 pips in our example.
Press, calculate.
For our example, the best lot size for Gold will be 0.22.
The idea is that your maximum loss should not exceed 1,5% of your account balance, while the average loss will be around 1%.
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GOLD trade ideas
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG report we said we would be watching the open for a support level to form below and price to attempt the red box, which worked well. It’s that red box we said needed to be watched for the break, which if happened would see us attempt higher price starting with 3468 and above that 3485-90. Again, we broke, hit our targets on the chart and the red box targets early week.
We then released the NFP Report which gave the key level and the bias for the move. As you can see on that report, we managed to get almost a pip prefect move from the key level upside, nearly into the target level where we suggested the opportunity to short may come from this week
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
For this week we have Cpi and PPi midweek so there is potential for this to either range up here, or, like we suggested in the NFP Report, a tap above and a move downside. What we would ideally like to see here is support attacked, defended, a move upside in to the 3606-10 region with extension into the 3620 level and a rejection from above. So, in this scenario, due to the stretch, we’re happy to test these levels with sensible risk but due to that stretch and the mean being way below, if we break above that 3620 level, we’re happy to let it go to where it wants before looking for a reversal.
We’re going to keep it simple, lets see how we open and then we’ll have a better idea of what to expect for the rest of the week.
As usual, we’ll update traders through the week with our plans and trades.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Gold: soars on Fed hopesGold price continues to rally, reaching a fresh new all time highest levels during the previous week. Gold gained 1,7% for the week, reaching ATH at $3.674. The surge was widely supported by increased expectations over the Fed's rate cut at September's meeting, which will be held next week, on September 17th. The revised US jobs data were posted during the previous week, with a drop of -911K, which signalled to the market that the jobs market in the US is weakening, providing a solid grounds for Fed to cut.
The price of gold started the previous week by breaking the $3,6K level, and headed toward the ATH at $3.674. The price is closing the week at $3.643. The RSI entered into the highly overbought territory and continued to move within it for the rest of the week, around the level of 77. The MA50 started again to diverge from MA200, without any indication that the potential cross might come anytime soon.
The week ahead brings FOMC meeting with high market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this time. As the price of gold already priced such expectations, there is some probability that the week ahead will start with modest profit-taking. The modest correction is probable, at least till the level of $3,6K, to be tested again. A move to higher grounds is also possible, however, the level could not be estimated as the price of gold is currently moving in an uncharted territory.
XAUUSD_15MGold Analysis
Short Time
Elliott Wave Analysis Style The market is forming the ABC correction wave and the path of completion of this wave is to the 3630 range. And to continue the path of the main wave, the rise or fall will be determined at the number 3630!
Ask us for gold market gold signals
GOLD Very Bullish , Can We Buy Again And Get 200 Pips ?Here is My 15 Mins Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , we finally above 3639.00 and we have a 4H Candle closure above it and we have a Perfect Breakout and this give us a very good confirmation ,and also we have a reversal pattern and the price closed above neckline , so we have a good confirmation now to can buy from 3639.00 when the price back to retest it , we need the price to go back and retest it and give us a good bullish price action and then we can enter , we can targeting 100 to 200 pips . if we have a daily closure below this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore .
Reasons To Enter :
1- Perfect Touch For The Area .
2- Clear Bullish Price Action .
3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bullish P.A .
4- The Price Take The Last High .
5- Perfect 15 Mins Closure .
6- Reversal Pattern .
Gold trendHi.
I think the most important price that we need to see is 3620
till there we have downtrend pressure as correction.
but out Main Trend is up. as my day trades or scalp trade im going to find opportunities to buy it.
selling gold is high risk but as a day trader you can enter into sell position but remember to risk less than your buy entries.
"ITS JUST GOOD BUSINESS"
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on XAUUSD?
Gold has been moving within a medium-term ascending channel and recently managed to break above a major resistance area that had previously rejected price multiple times.
Currently, the price is facing a psychological and technical barrier at the $3500 level, acting as the next resistance.
Price is expected to consolidate slightly below $3500 before attempting another push higher.
As long as price holds above the broken resistance and stays within the ascending channel, the bullish outlook remains valid.
A successful breakout above $3500 could open the path toward targets at $3600 – $3700-$3900 in the medium term.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Excellent Profits on Bull runAs discussed throughout my Friday's session commentary and many past remarks: 'Quick update: My practical suggestion to keep Buying every dip has proven to be excellent recently as wherever you Buy this market, you won't regret the decision. I repeat once again, do not Sell Gold on this market at all costs. I spotted decent opportunity as before to position myself on Long-term towards #3,700.80 as I Bought #3,618.80, #3,625.80 and #3,630.80 towards #3,700.80 benchmark / all orders running with Stop's on breakeven as I maintain my #3,700.80 benchmark Target. This will be excellent addition to my already made Profits from Buying Gold on the Short-term. Well done if you followed.'
I have closed in Profit many scalp-Buying orders throughout Friday's session from #3,640.80 towards #3,645.80 or more while my Medium-term Buying orders are well preserved. I have added another Buy limit last night on market opening with #3,630.80 entry point which was triggered and closed on #3,645.80 Take Profit automatically. I will keep Buying every Low's on Gold from my key entry points as long as Gold is Trading above #3,620.80 Support for the fractal.
A brief discussion on analysis and next week's trendGood weekend, is everyone having a good day today? Did you get together with family and friends? Regardless, I hope everyone enjoyed themselves.
Let me briefly tell you about our situation this week and my views on the gold trend next week. Gold maintained high-level fluctuations overall this week. Although it is still in an upward channel, it can be clearly seen from the daily chart that the upward momentum has slowed down compared with the continuous rise in the previous two weeks. Another intuitive feeling is that the current space below is much larger than the space above.
On Thursday and Friday, I repeatedly emphasized that only if gold breaks above 3660 can it continue to rise and reach the short-term high of 3675, or even a new high of 3690-3700. Considering that some friends find it difficult to distinguish between a genuine breakout and a false breakout, I suggested that the short-term resistance level of 3655-3665 be observed. Here I share a small piece of knowledge for your reference. In the face of a possible spike in the market, 80% of fluctuations are within the range of approximately $5-10. If you are unsure whether a resistance level has been effectively broken or a support level has been broken in the short term, you might as well leave yourself some room for maneuver and use a combination of small and large cycles to make judgments to avoid being distracted by false fluctuations.
Therefore, next week we can still consider focusing on the upper resistance range of 3655-3665. If the candlestick chart entity stands firmly above the resistance area, then the market will be as we expected, and the upper space is expected to be further opened in the short term.
From the news perspective, the first is an invisible piece of news that China and the United States will hold their fourth meeting, which will involve issues such as tariffs. If the two sides reach an agreement or move in a good direction this time, it may cool down the risk aversion sentiment and gold may fall. Secondly, Trump and Fed Governor Tim Cook are currently in legal proceedings. If Trump wins the case, will it reignite concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and thus interfere with gold prices?
Finally, the most important thing is the Fed's clear interest rate cut basis point. The current market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut. Whether the "buy expectations and sell facts" strategy we have always emphasized can be fulfilled and trigger a drop in gold prices depends on Powell's speech attitude. If his stance this time leans towards the hawks, then the market trend will most likely be in line with our expectations.
Overall, we need to be more cautious when going long on gold next week and not be too greedy for profits. There is limited upward space in the short term. Focus on the breakthrough of the 3655-3665 resistance and beware of the impact of news. At present, everything is just analysis. Specific operations can wait for Monday’s trading strategy. Finally, I wish you all a happy weekend!
Gold finally finds some resistance at Fibo extensionGold has been in a massive bullish trend going back to last February, when it started to finally leave behind the $2k/oz level.
There have been two pause points along the way, with bull pennants building in the final two months of last year and then for four months this year.
Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole drove a parabolic breakout from that second bull pennant, and buyers have been very much in-control ever since. But this week finally saw some resistance set in that was able to pause the move. The Fibonacci retracement spans the move from June and perhaps more notably the 161.8% extension had previously provided some resistance during the breakout.
The reason this matters is it helps to identify support. That 161.8% extension is at 3577, and if we do see a larger pullback around the Fed next week, that becomes a major spot of emphasis. And the 127.2% extension is also of note, as that price is confluent with the 3500 level and if we get a larger pullback, that becomes the spot for bulls to defend. And for traders that are looking for bullish exposure, that's a significant test of the move. - js
Gold Price consolidation Hit all Time levelsGold price recent rally in gold is indeed tied to expectations of Fed rate cuts in September. Added to that, safe-haven demand from geopolitical risks is reinforcing strength. This combination often sustains bullish momentum in gold. ill see projecting a longer-term target around $3,800/oz in the coming months.
However, in the near term, the key resistance is 3690. That’s the level to watch for reaction either rejection or breakout. If broken and sustained, the path opens toward 3800 this one Long-term Target
You may find more details in the chart.
Trade wisely Best of Luck buddies.
Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis.
Gold breakout risk builds with pennant patternGold is coiling within a bull pennant pattern on the hourly, pointing to the potential for a topside break and eventual retest of the record high at $3674.80.
Should we close above pennant resistance, longs could be established on the break with a stop beneath for protection. $3656 looms as an initial target, given the price tagged it on no fewer than 11 occasions over the past week but only closed above it once—when the record high was set. If the price can successfully push above $3660 and hold there, it may encourage additional bulls to join in the move targeting $3674.80.
An alternative setup would be to wait for a potential break and close above $3660 before initiating longs, allowing for a stop to be placed beneath for protection while targeting the record highs.
Momentum indicators are providing an inconclusive message on directional risks with RSI (14) and MACD sitting in neutral territory. More emphasis should therefore be placed on price action for guidance rather than adopting a specific bias.
Good luck!
DS
Gold Battlefield – Sept 17, 2025Hello traders, tomorrow’s gold stage is lit by one spotlight: FOMC.
Price has just kissed fresh highs near 3699–3703, and now hovers at 3693, as if the market is pausing to breathe before the next strike. Gold has climbed over 4000 pips without a healthy pullback — the question everyone is asking: is this distribution or just another recharge before bulls explode higher?
On the Daily chart, momentum is hot. RSI presses high, EMAs are spread wide, and price sits way above the 21EMA. Buyers still dominate, but the market is overheating. The supply ceiling above 3700–3730 holds the liquidity sellers wait for, while the demand base at 3640–3660 is the floor where old imbalances and OBs rest.
On H4/H1, gold is boxed in:
Support at 3675–3685.
Resistance at 3695–3703.
As long as price dances inside, it’s noise — the breakout will tell the real story.
The buy cushion is 3675–3680, where EMAs cluster and structure aligns.
Between them lies indecision, a battlefield of liquidity grabs.
Scenarios?
🔸 If gold holds above 3680 and breaks 3695 with force, bulls target 3720–3730.
🔸 If rejection repeats at 3700 and price slips under 3680, doors swing open to 3660–3650, maybe the long-awaited pullback.
Tomorrow is not about chasing the middle — it’s about patience. Wait for the extremes, the BOS, the CHoCH, the slowdown. With FOMC on stage, both sides can be swept before the real move begins.
Here’s the map:
Above 3700 → trap zone for sellers.
Around 3680 → key seat for buyers.
In between → we only watch the fight.
Trade smart, trade precise, and remember: the edge belongs to those who wait for confirmation at the levels that matter.
🚀 What’s your take – does gold push through 3700 or are we finally due for that deeper pullback? Drop your thoughts 👇, hit that like & follow GoldFxMinds for tomorrow’s live precision updates ✨
GOLD at Support , holds or not??#GOLD.. market just reached at his current supporting region.
That is around 3612 to 3618
Keep close that region and if market hold it in that case we can expect again bounce from here.
NOTE: we will go for cut n reverse below 3612 on confirmation for further 20 points dip..
Good luck
Trade wisely
Gold :)After reacting to the 3618 support zone, the market successfully formed a valid bottom and initiated a new upward move with increased demand. The corrective pullback has been completed, and signs of buyer strength are evident on the 1-hour timeframe. If the current bullish momentum holds, the price is expected to head toward the key resistance at 3644, which is considered the short-term target of this upward wave.
XAUUSD – CPI Data Breakdown & Professional Insight | MMFLOW 🚀 XAUUSD – CPI Data Breakdown & Professional Insight | MMFLOW TRADING
📊 CPI Results (September)
Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (In line with forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.3%)
CPI m/m: 0.4% (Above forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.2%)
CPI y/y: 2.9% (In line with forecast: 2.9%, previous: 2.7%)
📈 MMFLOW Insight – What This Means for Gold (XAUUSD)
1️⃣ Headline CPI Beat Signals Sticky Inflation
The uptick to 0.4% m/m surprised markets and indicates inflationary pressures are not cooling as much as expected.
This strengthens USD short-term and pushes Treasury yields higher. The initial reaction is selling pressure on gold as traders price in a more hawkish Fed stance.
2️⃣ Core CPI Stability Offers Mixed Sentiment
Core CPI staying flat at 0.3% suggests underlying price pressures remain steady.
This tempers extreme hawkish expectations, leaving room for gold to recover after initial volatility, especially if yields stabilize.
3️⃣ Medium-Term Implications
Despite today’s stronger headline CPI, inflation remains on a downtrend y/y (2.9%), supporting the broader narrative of a Fed pivot in the coming months.
Central banks (esp. PBoC & EM countries) continue to accumulate gold, which underpins long-term bullish bias.
🔑 Technical Reaction Zones (M15/M30)
Resistance: 3,648 – 3,654 (Trendline/React FIB)
Support / Liquidity Zones:
• 3,624.33 – Key Zone Support BUY
• 3,612.54 – CP/React Zone FIB
• 3,599.23 – Major BUY Zone
🛠 Trading Approach After CPI
Expect whipsaw price action: an initial spike lower (USD strength) followed by potential recovery if buyers defend liquidity zones.
SELL Scalp: Only on strong rejection from 3,648–3,654 with tight SL.
BUY Opportunity: Watch for confirmed bounce signals at 3,624 / 3,612 / 3,599.
Stay nimble: CPI-induced volatility can sweep both sides before choosing direction.
✅ Summary
The hotter CPI print adds near-term pressure to gold, but the overall structure and central bank demand remain supportive. Expect liquidity sweeps before a potential bullish continuation.
👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for real-time execution updates, liquidity setups, and professional market insights during this volatile post-CPI session.
Gold – Is This Head & Shoulders a Trap or Opportunity?"Gold has formed a Head & Shoulders on the 15M chart — but is it a real breakdown or a bullish trap? Waiting for higher timeframe confirmation before entry. Risk management is key."
Timeframe: 15M | Instrument: Gold Spot (XAUUSD) | Date: Sept 17, 2025
🧐 Market Outlook
Gold has formed a Head & Shoulders pattern on the 15M chart. Typically a bearish sign, but here’s the catch — Gold is famous for false breakouts. If this neckline break fails, we could see a powerful bullish reversal.
📐 Setup Breakdown
Left Shoulder – Head – Right Shoulder completed.
Price testing neckline around $3,665 – $3,658.
Support zones: $3,658 / $3,636 / $3,604
Resistance zones: $3,701 / $3,765
🎯 Trade Plan (Standby Entry)
✅ Entry: $3,665 – $3,658 (ONLY with higher TF confirmation)
❌ Stop Loss: Below $3,636
🎯 Targets:
TP1: $3,701
TP2: $3,765
⚠️ This is a standby setup. Do not jump in without 1H / 4H bullish confirmation (engulfing or demand zone defense).
🛑 Risk Management
Risk max 1–2% per trade.
R:R approx 3:1 if TP2 achieved.
Avoid over-leverage — Gold is volatile.
📌 Key Lessons (Case Study)
Patterns need confirmation → Don’t trade 15M patterns blindly.
False breakouts are traps → Especially in Gold.
Discipline matters more than prediction → Wait for price action to validate.
✅ Conclusion
This chart is a case study for traders:
Spot the pattern ✔️
Wait for higher timeframe confirmation ✔️
Manage risk ✔️
👉 Trading is not about catching every move, it’s about protecting capital and seizing the right opportunities.
🔖 Tags
#XAUUSD #Gold #PriceAction #HeadAndShoulders #TradingPsychology #RiskManagement #MultiTimeframeAnalysis #CaseStudy #TradYoga #YogesHonale
Quiet Storm:Bulls vs Bears in Waiting!Under the influence of CPI and initial jobless claims data, gold rose directly to the area around 3644. The short-term rise seems exaggerated, but it did not stand firmly above 3650, and even failed to reach the intraday high of 3649. The release of bullish momentum was relatively convergent; it can be clearly seen from the short-term candlestick chart that gold showed long upper shadows many times in the short term, and the trajectory and structure began to shift downward, and tested support downward many times, which also proved that the short-selling force was gradually recovering after being suppressed.
However, gold rebounded after touching the 3620-3610 support area several times during the retracement. Although the bullish momentum has declined in the short term, the bullish structure has not been completely destroyed, so the overall structure is still controlled by the bulls, and the bullish force still has enough strength to support gold.
Overall, as the bulls become more cautious and the bears gradually recover, gold is expected to maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term, and the fluctuation range is likely to remain in the 3655-3615 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, we can strictly stick to the trading points and execute high-selling and low-buying transactions within the area.