Gold. 1 more leg down. 6/Nov/25Xauusd 1 more leg down before surging..What "trigger" the surge? coming NFP?
Trade ideas
30.10.25 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:XAUUSD
FX:EURCAD
FX:EURAUD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
XAUUSD: Double-Top Breakdown Targets $3,928 Amid USD StrengthXAUUSD 4H Bearish
**Quick Analysis**
- 3rd test & reject at $4,000 (psych + 1.618 Fib)
- Double-top neckline broken @ $3,985 → $3,928 target
- RSI 72 divergence + bearish engulfing under 200EMA
**Fundamentals**
- FOMC signals 2 cuts in 2026 → DXY 108.50
- Ceasefire + Trump tariffs crush safe-haven bid
- COT: specs max long → squeeze incoming
**Trade**
SELL LIMIT $3,995–$4,005
SL $4,018 | TP $3,928 (1:4 RR)
Risk 1% | BE +25 pips
Gold on relief rallyTechnical analysis: Gold was close to the important #3,962.80 Hourly 4 chart’s Support zone test (Xau-Usd Spot numbers), as Price-action was rejected on #3,957.80 - #3,962.80 configuration, which shows how slow to reveal major move Gold has become (not taking Fundamental Buying pressure into account) and didn’t even engaged full scale decline sequence / even though that DX is seen Trading on relief rally without Bearish candle sequence and on constant High's (DX remains of course my main correlating instrument). If there wasn’t Bullish DX related developments, Gold would be significantly Higher under the circumstances. Gold eventually didn't even honored the Resistance break on DX and to counterbalance the sequence, delivered Short-term Buying impulse, seen early on regarding E.U. session, reversing again despite Tuesday’s late session decline as DX is Trading near Weekly (#1W) Resistance zone - should reveal an Bearish Short-term sentiment Gold should be Trading under., however Gold is soaring as this is total Buying domination and undisputed Bullish trend. Even though my Medium-term outlook remains Bullish based on fractal analysis of candles, Volume and RSI with the period March - April, I am expecting a Short-term Neutral Rectangle Trading towards the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone first (#4,021.80 - #4,027.80) as the Hourly setting were sitting in Overbought waters approaching the levels of December #27. I am looking closely at this week’s U.S. data to monitor DX movements.
My position: Even though Gold should dip, I was confident in my multi-Month Bullish projection and Bought Gold aggressively many times after my #3,942.80 - #3,946.80 pending Buying orders to the upside. Sold #3,980's on late U.S. session (aggressive Scalps) and waited #3,962.80 to Buy again aggressively towards #4,000.80 benchmark. I do expect #4,027.80 Resistance test extension as I will re-Buy Gold from my entry points.
GOLD Very Near Perfect Place For See , 500 Pips Waiting !Here is My 30 Mins Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , we again Below 4050.00 With 4H Candle and the price come back to retest it ! and we have a 4H Candle closure below it And Perfect Breakout and this give us a very good confirmation , so we have a good confirmation now to can sell after the price go back to retest the broken area between 4050.00 : 4055.00 , and give us a good wicks as previous wicks ! and we can targeting 100 to 200 pips . if we have a daily closure above this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore .
Reasons To Enter :
1- Perfect Touch For The Area .
2- Clear Bearish Price Action .
3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bearish P.A .
4- Over Bought .
5- Perfect 30 Mins Closure .
XAUUSD LongBuy @ 3980
TP 4036
I'm not a story teller, neither i trade on news.
The only story what u should be reading is the chart itself
Selling pressure below 4000, signs of a breakout⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) rises above $3,950 during Wednesday’s Asian session as persistent US government shutdown concerns and geopolitical tensions fuel safe-haven demand. The stalemate between Democrats and Republicans has stretched into a new month, putting the US on track for its longest-ever shutdown.
However, gains may be capped as traders take profits amid a stronger US Dollar (USD) and waning expectations for additional Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year. A firmer dollar typically makes gold costlier for overseas buyers, limiting its appeal.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price under selling pressure below 4000, downtrend after breaking trendline
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 4040 - 4042 SL 4047
TP1: $4030
TP2: $4015
TP3: $4000
🔥BUY GOLD zone: 3888 - 3886 SL 3881
TP1: $3900
TP2: $3915
TP3: $3930
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable sell order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold Sell Setup AgainHi All,
Attached is a Sell Setup for Gold as of now. (For Educational Purpose Only)
1. SL is mandatory
2. Book 1:1 Profit for half position and rest half let it run (BCZ TREND IS UP) so don't invest huge as we are taking trade against the trend as of now.
3. Lets hope we will earn together good amount of GREEN PIPS.
Amen.
XAUUSD- Bullish setupGold is showing early signs of a bullish reversal after finding support around the lower green band and reclaiming the short-term trend zone. Price has broken above the descending structure with increasing momentum, suggesting potential continuation to the upside.
Bullish Confluences:
Bounce from lower volatility band support (oversold zone).
Break above local trend resistance and EMA ribbon.
Higher lows forming, showing renewed buying pressure.
🎯 Fibonacci Targets:
TP1: 38.2% – $4,049
TP2: 61.8% – $4,075
TP3: 100% – $4,117
As long as price holds above the recent breakout zone (~$3,995–$4,000), bulls remain in control. A clean move through the golden zone could confirm continuation toward higher targets.
Gold on upswing as expectedAs discussed throughout my Friday's session commentary: 'My position: I have Traded Scalp orders mostly throughout yesterday’s session Buying #4,005.80 on multiple occasions towards #4,015.80 and #3,992.80 aggressively towards #4,000.80 benchmark. I have Bought #3,964.80 as well as I maintain Buying every dips strategy. I have accumulated enough Profits this week and will not Trade today, comfortably taking early weekend break.'
Update: I spot more and more Sellers trapped in attempt to re-Sell Gold, remember that Gold is on undisputed Buying trend and total Bullish domination. I maintain however my #4,100.80 first Target as I am Buying from #4,022.80 last night / Asian session opening as behind us is just on of the many 'Sellers trap' week believing Gold would dip towards #3,900.80 benchmark. I remain solid with my thesis that Gold delivered correction, formed Ultimate Bottom on #4,000.80 benchmark and will continue soaring from this point as #4,000.80 will remain floor for #5,100.80 benchmark test in extension.
GOLD Will make new HighAfter a sharp decline, price enters a sideways consolidation — this is often where smart money (composite operators) begin to accumulate positions before the next bullish move.
Wyckoff Accumulation Phases (Simplified)
Selling Climax (SC):
A sharp decline followed by high volume and a rebound — sellers are exhausted.
Automatic Rally (AR):
Price bounces back sharply, defining the upper range of the accumulation zone.
Secondary Test (ST):
Price retests or slightly breaks below the SC but with lower volume.
Spring (optional):
A final shakeout where price dips below support to trap late sellers.
Sign of Strength (SOS):
Breakout above resistance on higher volume and strong candles.
Last Point of Support (LPS):
Retest of broken resistance — this confirms the bullish reversal.
XAUUSD Eyes 4000$ Breakout as Accumulation Phase Near Completion🔍 Market Context
After a week of sideways consolidation within a broad range, gold (XAU/USD) is showing the first signs of structural recovery.
The market is gradually carving a potential short-term bottom, hinting that the corrective phase may be ending — and a breakout from the range could be imminent.
Despite the lack of new macro catalysts, sentiment remains underpinned by renewed safe-haven flows and expectations that the Fed will maintain its easing stance through early 2026.
Traders are now watching closely whether the 4,000$ handle will finally give way — a key inflection zone that could trigger aggressive momentum buying if reclaimed.
📊 Technical Structure (H1–H4)
Gold is currently trading above the intraday demand zone 3,969$–3,982$, maintaining a short-term bullish structure while compressing under resistance.
The descending trendline and Fibo confluence near 4,019$–4,048$ act as the next critical reaction area for breakout confirmation.
Key Technical Zones:
• 💎 Demand Zone: 3,969$ – 3,982$ (liquidity base + ascending trendline confluence)
• 🎯 Primary Resistance: 4,019$ – 4,048$ (trendline + Fibo 1.272/1.618)
• ⚙️ Bullish Target: 4,046$ → 4,052$ → 4,090$ (extended range liquidity)
• ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,960$ → risk of a deeper correction toward 3,940$.
🎯 MMFLOW Outlook
Smart money appears to be absorbing liquidity within the 3,970$ zone, suggesting accumulation before expansion.
If gold can break and sustain above 4,000$, the bias flips decisively bullish — opening the door for a range expansion toward 4,050$+.
This could mark the beginning of a new impulse phase following weeks of compression.
⚜️ MMFLOW Insight:
“When volatility sleeps, liquidity quietly builds the next trend.”
Gold/Oil Signaling Market Is In A Super Bubble Gold = Fear
Oil = how strong the economy is.
Except for COVID we have never seen such an extreme reading. Yet people are buying up stocks like we will never again be able to produce another stock again as long as we live!
Tulips!
Here are just a few of the factors to consider that make this indicator important.
Why This Indicator Matters: Key Factors at a Glance
Gold’s Surge Signals a Shift
Gold has soared nearly 60% year-to-date, adding a staggering $10 trillion in market capitalization. This rally effectively erases all the stock market gains made since May 2021, including those driven by AI enthusiasm and speculative tech runs.
USD Can Only Be Measured Against Gold
As the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar’s real value is best gauged in terms of gold. This is a critical point—because when gold rises this dramatically, it reflects monetary inflation. A large part of the stock market rally has been driven by an expanding money supply, not true value creation.
Curiously, this inflation hasn’t shown up in oil prices, which have collapsed, despite geopolitical risks. More on that below.
The Dollar’s Worst Year in Decades
2025 marks one of the most significant declines for the U.S. dollar in recent history. Its role as the world reserve currency (WRC) has diminished—from 85% in the 1970s to just 50% today. Trade wars and tariffs are only accelerating this trend.
Monetary Inflation Drives Stock Prices
Stock markets are being lifted by monetary inflation, not organic growth. Stocks can be created endlessly—unlike gold. That makes gold a true inflation benchmark. The stock market’s rise is, in large part, a mirage, reflecting debased currency, not real productivity.
Oil Isn’t Behaving as Expected—Why?
Typically, when the dollar weakens, oil prices rise—because more dollars are needed to buy the same barrel of oil. But right now, oil prices are soft. Why?
Global demand is weak, outpaced by supply. Even the Russia-Ukraine war hasn’t changed that dynamic. In fact, Russia is now importing gasoline, as Ukrainian forces continue to target and disable refining capacity.
Here’s why this matters: when oil wells are opened, they can't just be turned off. If the refiners are destroyed and the oil has nowhere to go—it’s wasted. That’s a strategic win for Ukraine.
The Disconnect Between Stock Prices and Profits
While inflation has pushed stock prices higher, it hasn’t translated into equivalent profit growth.
Example: If a stock goes from $10 to $20 due to inflation, you'd expect earnings to go from $1 to $2 to maintain the same P/E ratio. Instead, the earnings yield is just 3.2%—a historical low. That’s a major red flag.
As pilots would say: WTF, over?
Here’s the likely explanation:
The money hasn’t reached consumers—it's concentrated in the hands of wealthy savers and leveraged investors, who are buying more stocks to sell to the next buyer willing to lever up even more. It’s a classic feedback loop—and a superbubble reminiscent of the tulip mania era.
The Smart Money Knows What's Coming
As this imbalance grows more obvious, central banks and institutional investors are quietly increasing their gold holdings—well above the pace of supply growth.
So when Gold/Oil (two important commodities) completely disconnect like this, and Gold explodes up like this, you'd better take notice!
Lastly, it takes 100 ounces to buy a new home. Last time this occurred was in 1978 ish, 2011, and now!
Debt to GDP in 76 was 33%, 2011 was 99% and today 126% It is not the same animal as the past.
GTFO & STFO! No matter where the prices for stocks go!
CAUTION!!!
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 11/6/2025Although gold dropped to 3930 on Tuesday, yesterday it didn't continue the momentum but rose to 3980. I am switching my view to my weekly prediction. Gold should continue to rise this week. Currently, bull's strength is not strong enough. It will face resistance of 4000. I will buy from 3960. If 4000 is broken, I will have more confidence on hitting 4028 target or even 4050.
GOLD near Resistance ? What's next??#GOLD.. after a perfect move according to our last idea regarding gold and now market just reached near to our expected resistance area.
That is around 4115-22
Keep close and don't be lazy here.
Good luck
trade wisely
GOLD ForecastGold has broken out of the descending channel, showing early bullish momentum. If price sustains above the breakout zone near 3,960–3,970, it may target the next resistance areas around 4,005 and 4,045. However, failure to hold above the breakout level could trigger a pullback toward 3,940 support. Bulls are gaining strength, but resistance levels remain crucial for confirmation of further upside.
"Thank you for your support! If you found this idea valuable or learned something new, please consider liking and leaving a comment. I’d really appreciate hearing your feedback and thoughts."
Today's gold trading strategy1.The technical breakout feature is highly significant, and the risk of a top divergence is imminent. The so-called "breakout trend" currently actually has fatal flaws: Although the London gold price has reached $3990.24, it has not stabilized above the 10-day moving average (4008 USD), and the 30-minute chart has formed a top divergence structure of "new price high + shortened MACD red bar", which is a typical trend reversal signal. More importantly, the increase in trading volume during the breakout has "water" - the highest daily increase was only 0.41%, while the trading volume has shrunk by 22% compared to the peak of the previous trading day, and although the active buy orders accounted for 61%, they were concentrated in the $3980 - $3985 USD range, and the buy volume above $3990 USD dropped sharply, confirming "insufficient willingness to buy at the high price". Historical data shows that when gold does not break through the key moving average, a top divergence occurs, and the probability of a 24-hour subsequent decline is 81%, with an average decline of over 1.2%.
2.Institutional funds have hidden differences, and the sustainability of ETF's increase in holdings is questionable. The "institutional increase in holdings" logic that is overly dependent on it has obvious flaws: The latest addition to SPDR gold ETF holdings data was on November 4th (increased by 2.58 tons), and there has been no new increase in holdings record since November 5th. Moreover, the main contract position of New York gold futures shows that the long position only increased slightly by 0.3%, while the short position increased by 1.8%, the ratio of long to short positions dropped from 1.2:1 to 1.17:1, and the institutional differences have already emerged. What is more alarming is that the gold sector index has been in a 3-day correction, with a single-day decline of 4.06% on November 4th, and the trading volume has also shrunk simultaneously, indicating that the precious metal funds in the stock market are accelerating their withdrawal, and this "cross-market capital flight" often precedes the decline in the spot market.
Today's gold trading strategy
sell：3985~3995
tp:3975~3965
sl:4005
XAUUSD - Time to buy...XAUUSD was in a short term downtrend for a few weeks but has now shown some clear bullish movements ahead. XAUUSD (Gold) has broken out of a downward trend channel that was acting as strong resistance, The price is very likely to head to the next resistance level which is market as the take profit zone (green line). Time to buy!
My predictions and analysis of gold todayMy predictions and analysis of gold today were consistent with the day's market conditions:
1-Accurate judgment on support levels: The key support level at 4100 remained solid, and gold prices rebounded after hitting the bottom at this level, verifying the effectiveness of this support.
2-Consistency between oscillation/breakout forecasts and actual trends: Gold made multiple attempts to break through the 4145 resistance level but pulled back under pressure, with the high-level narrow-range oscillation in line with expectations. It was also clearly indicated that a breakout from the narrow range was likely during the U.S. session.
3-Effective trend and strategy guidance: The trading strategy provided in the morning aligned with gold's price movement, and the core strategy of prioritizing buying on pullbacks was emphasized, which fit the actual market rhythm.
4-Risk reminder: It was advised that one should not blindly chase the upward trend to avoid losses.
GOLD Is Going Up! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for GOLD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 4,087.79.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 4,161.33 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Daily live trade with XAUUSD in 15m/30m/1h 20251106Daily live trade with XAUUSD in 15m/30m/1h 20251106
XAUUSD: Buy ideaBuy idea on XAUUSD as you can see on the chart because we have the breakout of the resistance line and also the breakout of the vwap indicator.
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for November 5thGold Technical Analysis:
Daily Resistance: 4080, Support: 3890.
4-Hour Resistance: 4035, Support: 3930.
1-Hour Resistance: 4000, Support: 3960.
The bullish outlook over the long term remains intact, but market correction and consolidation are warranted. The daily candlestick chart shows a slowing decline in spot gold, with the price entering a range-bound consolidation. Multiple moving averages above are hindering any short-term rebound. Watch for MACD/KDJ indicator corrections. Resistance levels to watch are around 4000 and 4030 respectively. The short-term downside risk is relatively high.
Based on the 1-hour candlestick chart, spot gold is in a rebound phase with a potential for continuation. The bottom on the 1-hour chart is gradually moving upwards, the trading range is narrowing, and the Bollinger Bands are converging. Support levels to watch are around 3955/3945. Short-term market momentum is weak; a strategy of buying low and selling high is recommended.
Trading Strategy:
SELL: 3993~4000 (near)
BUY: 3945~3940 (near)
