LiamTrading – XAUUSD M45 | Fibonacci Perspective on the ...LiamTrading – XAUUSD M45 | Fibonacci Perspective on the Uptrend: watch for a sell at 2.618 @ 4229–4231, wait to buy at FVG 4174–4172
Quick Context: News about the U.S. government reopening eases tensions, but gold prices in the Asian session this morning only rose slightly before moving sideways – accumulating. On M45, the triangle has broken upwards but the buying momentum hasn't truly exploded; the market might retest the Fair Value Gaps (FVG) before choosing the next direction.
Technical Analysis
Trendline & M45 Structure: The uptrend after the breakout is running along a short-term rising trendline; the old triangle top becomes resistance near 4215.
Fibonacci Extension:
2.272 ≈ 4215: pivot point; staying above this level opens the path to higher levels.
2.618 ≈ 4229–4231: extended resistance – an area prone to rejection/short-term reversal.
FVG & Liquidity Zones:
FVG #1: 4195–4198 – likely to fill before continuing upward.
Liquidity: 4184–4188 – volume attraction zone between FVG and trendline.
Fibo 0.618 + FVG: 4172–4174 – strong confluence for a buy-back scenario following the trend.
Invalidation Level: breaking 4166 weakens the M45 uptrend structure, risking a pullback to lower zones.
Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Trend-following Buy (priority)
Entry: 4172–4174 (Fibo 0.618 + FVG)
SL: 4166
TP: 4190 → 4215 → 4240 → 4280
Note: Prioritize if a clear rejection/long lower wick candle appears at 417x.
Scenario 2 – Counter-trend Sell Scalp at Extended Resistance
Entry: 4229–4231 (Fibo 2.618)
SL: 4236 (above the nearest peak)
TP: 4215 → 4196 → 4186 → 4175
Note: Quick trade; abandon if M45 closes strongly above 4231–4233.
Scenario 3 – Buy on Break & Hold of 4215
Condition: M45 closes above 4215, retest holds 4212–4216
Entry: 4216–4218
SL: 4207
TP: 4229–4231 → 4260 → 4285–4300
Which price zone do you find noteworthy today? Comment below & hit Follow on LiamTrading for the latest updates.
Trade ideas
Gold Price Forecast | Smart Money Levels (Nov 12, 2025)OANDA:XAUUSD GOLD ANALYSIS - What’s Moving the Market Today?
(Updated: November 12, 2025)
💠 Trade with DECRYPTERS
We keep it simple - Smart Money zones define the battlefield. Follow institutional footprints, not noise.
🔮 ASTROLOGY INSIGHT
Mercury ♂ Mars = Mixed → Bearish if risk-on
Expect volatility and fake-outs near resistance as sentiment stays uncertain.
📊 MARKET OVERVIEW
Gold trades around $4,135-$4,145, showing resilience despite U.S. dollar swings.
* DXY slips to ~99.35 amid shutdown uncertainty and weaker risk tone.
* Fed holds rates steady at 3.75–4.00%; next cut odds at 55% for December.
* Central banks continue strong buying (+220t in Q3, led by Poland’s +67t).
* ETF inflows remain firm at +222t - investor demand steady.
* Geopolitical tensions (Mideast + US–China tariffs) sustain safe-haven flows.
Gold remains locked between institutional buy/sell blocks, Smart Money setting up heavy positions from 4,028–4,206.
🧭 SMART MONEY LEVELS (LIVE UPDATE)
Smart Money Sell Area: 4206–4191 → Major liquidity zone; rejection likely.
Sell Reaction Zone: 4165–4153 → Intraday resistance, ideal for quick fades.
Smart Money Buy Area: 4028–4011 → Deep liquidity accumulation zone for swing buys.
📍 Millions in pending institutional orders rest within these zones.
📅 WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
* Nov 13 CPI: Expect ~3.0% core, shutdown delays may trigger volatility.
* Dec FOMC: 55% odds of a 25bps cut; Fed cautious until full data returns.
* Geopolitical Risk: Mideast or tariff escalation = 🟢 bullish spike.
Resolution = 🔴 USD rebound → gold pressure.
Break Zones:
🔸 Hold above 4,120 → targets 4,165–4,170
🔸 Break below 4,100 → slide toward 4,050–4,028
🎯 TRADE PLAN
Stay tactical — trade zones, not emotions.
* Buy Dips: 4,090–4,120 → Targets 4,150–4,170
* Sell Rallies: 4,165–4,190 → Stops above 4,206
Bias remains bullish while above 4,120; short-term sentiment may turn mildly bearish if risk appetite improves.
🧠 CONCLUSION
Gold remains supported by central bank demand and geopolitical risk, even as Fed policy and DXY limit major upside.
Expect range-bound volatility with bullish lean above 4,100.
Trade reaction, not prediction.
Pips Eruption! Watch CloselyHello dear traders,
In the analysis I shared with you, we expected a bullish move for gold. Gold has beautifully followed the analysis, bringing us a great profit.
Now, we may see a price correction before continuing the path toward the target. Also, we should stay aware of news regarding the Israel conflict.
Follow me for more accurate and insightful analyses.
Pips Eruption! 📈🔥 – Watch Closely
Gold Technical Rebound to FVG, Prioritise WATCHING FOR SELL at 4📊 Market Structure
Gold has completed a strong decline from the peak of 4.21x, leaving consecutive Break of Structure (BoS), confirming a short-term bearish structure.
The drop through the Breakout zone of 4.10x indicates a dominant selling force.
Currently, the price is bouncing from the Premium Zone 4.05x, aligning with the technical rebound behaviour after a strong sell-off.
The BUY side is merely pulling the price back to the abandoned liquidity zones (FVG 4.12x – 4.15x) before the SELL side can regain control.
The upper FVG zone is where the price often returns to fill after a steep fall. This is also the confluence zone between:
FVG (Fair Value Gap)
Old candle body Breaker
Fibonacci Premium
→ The risk of selling at these zones is very high.
💎 Key Technical Zones
Rebound zone for Sell
FVG 1: 4.101 – 4.126
FVG 2 (Strong Confluence): 4.126 – 4.150
Support zone – target to hit
Premium Zone $$$: 4.050 – 4.052
Lower FVG: 4.030 – 4.035
High probability price scenario: Rebound to FVG → reaction → continue to decline to 4.03x.
🎯 Trading Plan – Prioritise SELL
1️⃣ SELL Setup – High Probability
Wait for price to rebound to the above FVG zones:
Entry SELL:
4.118 – 4.126
Can add orders at higher: 4.140 – 4.150
Stop-loss: above 4.158
TP1: 4.101
TP2: 4.050
TP3: 4.030
✔️ This is a trend-following setup, selling at premium, adhering to SMC principles.
✔️ The current price is just beginning the rebound, not yet meeting BUY conditions.
2️⃣ BUY Setup – Only activate on deep Discount
Entry BUY: 4.030 – 4.035 (Lower FVG)
SL: below 4.020
TP: 4.070 – 4.100
→ BUY is only for counter-trend traders and must wait for a clear discount.
🧠 Vincent’s View
The market is in a distribution – decline phase, every rebound aims to pull liquidity.
As long as the price does not close above 4.150, SELL remains the optimal strategy for the day.
Observe closely when the price hits 4.12x – 4.15x, this is a “high-risk” zone for the BUY side and a “great opportunity” for the SELL side.
“Sell where the liquidity lives — that’s where institutions strike.” ⚜️
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Update: 17/11/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
Head and shoulders pattern Hi guys
Here is attached xau chart with 15 minutes time frame and the trading system show us the famous pattern as head and shoulders.
Please be careful to direct all the approvals sign for getting action
One of them is equally low points that happened nearly of 0.7 Fibonacci retracement
Gold sell set upGold has dropped aggressively to a demand level and closed below 200 ema
.............................. how to trade it :-
#1 Wait for price to break with a full bear candle with volume spike
#2 wait for price to retest the demand
#3 wait for bearish rejection candle at demand or engulfing candle
If nun of the confirmation 👆 show on the price do not take the trade
Gold Forms Higher Low — Potential Upside Toward Resistance LineHello traders, here’s my current outlook on Gold (XAUUSD). Gold has recently transitioned out of a strong bearish phase, where the price moved inside a descending channel and found significant support near the $3,930–$3,950 Buyer Zone. This support zone has proven to be a key reaction level multiple times, with several fake breakouts followed by strong bullish recoveries — confirming the presence of active buyers. After breaking out of the descending channel, the price began forming a higher-low structure, aligning along the Support Line, suggesting that bullish momentum is gradually returning. However, the market remains capped by the Resistance Line, where several strong rejections occurred, indicating that sellers are still defending higher levels. At the moment, Gold is trading between the Buyer Zone and the $4,020–$4,140 Resistance Zone (Seller Zone). If buyers manage to hold support and form another bullish push from the current levels, we could see an upward move targeting the $4,020 area first, and if momentum continues — a potential retest of the key resistance at $4,140. For now, the structure shows accumulation above strong support, suggesting that buyers still have the advantage. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Reversal Detected )Status: Active Reversal Protocol
Symbol: Gold
Session: London–New York Overlap (Smart Exit Window)
⚡Base : Hanzo Trading Alpha Algorithm
The algorithm calculates volatility displacement vs liquidity recovery, identifying where probability meets imbalance.
It trades only where precision, volume, and manipulation intersect —only logic.
Reasons To Enter ( 3980 ) Reversal Zone
➕Volume Cluster
➕Delta +
➕$$ Trend
➕Alpha Range Protecting
➕NY +
➕Visible Range LVN
⚙️ Hanzo Alpha Trading Protocol
The Alpha Candle defines the day’s real control zone — the first battle of momentum.
From this origin, the Volume Window reveals where the next precision strike begins.
The Formula to Make $10000 Daily👋 Hello traders!
If you’re looking for a real way to make $10000 every day from the markets, forget about the so-called magic strategies or secret expert tricks.
The truth is simple: there’s no overnight success formula. But there is a realistic path built on probability, discipline, and time — and that’s what I call The Formula to Make $10000 Daily .
⚙️ Step 1: Build a High-Probability Trading System
📊 This is your foundation.
A good trading system doesn’t have to be complex, but it must have clear rules and consistent logic .
You should always know:
✅ When to enter a trade
✅ When to stay out
✅ And most importantly — why you’re entering
Choose a strategy you can truly master and apply consistently — such as Break & Retest , Supply & Demand , or Market Structure Shift .
Every trade should have a Risk-to-Reward ratio (R:R) of at least 1:2 or higher.
💡 Example:
If you risk $2000 per trade and win just two out of three trades daily, you’ll make $4000.
Increase your lot size gradually and stay consistent — $10000 a day becomes a realistic outcome.
💼 Step 2: Capital Management – The Key to Survival
🧠 You can’t make $10000 daily if you lose $10000 in one bad trade.
Capital management isn’t just about protecting your balance — it’s about protecting your mindset and system.
Follow these golden rules:
💰 Risk only 1–2% per trade
🛑 Always use a stop loss
🎯 Set a clear take-profit target
With a $50,000 account, risking 1% equals $5000.
If your R:R ratio is 1:3, one winning trade a day earns $15000.
That’s not luck — that’s mathematics working in your favor .
🧘♂️ Step 3: Master the Trader’s Mindset
Once you have a solid system and money management plan, the final piece — and the most important — is your psychology .
Most traders don’t fail because their system is bad. They fail because they can’t control themselves .
Keep these principles close:
🚫 Don’t trade when emotions take control
🚫 Don’t revenge trade after losses
🚫 Don’t increase lot size out of greed
🚫 Don’t force yourself to take trades every day
A professional trader doesn’t aim to win every trade — they aim to lose less and lose smart .
🧩 The Real Formula
💎 (High-Probability System + Strict Risk Management + Strong Psychology) × Time = Sustainable Profit
There are no shortcuts.
No magic indicators.
Only you and your discipline .
📖 Real Story
One of my students, Ken, started with a $10,000 account.
He didn’t try to go big — instead, he aimed to earn 1% a day , or $1000.
After six months, by slowly increasing his trade size and staying disciplined, his average daily profit reached $10000 .
He told me:
“I didn’t need to change my system. I just needed to change myself.”
🎯 Final Thoughts
The formula to make $10000 daily doesn’t come from any special indicator, signal, or secret course.
It comes from understanding your system deeply, managing your capital wisely, and staying disciplined every single day .
💬 The market doesn’t reward the fastest traders. It rewards the most patient, consistent, and focused ones.
If you’re on your journey to becoming a professional trader, start today.
🔥 Build your own formula — and practice it every single day until it becomes second nature.
Gold Analysis H4 - Bullish orderflowAfter gold broke below the 3944.48 level, the market initially showed signs of further downside movement, potentially aiming to sweep more liquidity resting beneath that zone. However, the nature of the breakout suggests that it could itself be a liquidity grab rather than the start of a genuine bearish continuation.
The candle that broke this level was quickly rejected, indicating that selling pressure may have been absorbed by strong buy orders. This kind of price reaction often signals the presence of institutional accumulation or smart money activity.
As a result, the order flow now appears to be shifting, potentially preparing for a bullish move. If momentum continues to build, price may aim to sweep the liquidity resting above the trendline before deciding on the next directional move.
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAP Hey everyone,
Please review our Daily Chart Route Map, now featuring updated levels for tracking Golds movement.
We continue to track our refreshed proprietary Goldturn Channel, our unique method for constructing ascending channels. Price action is now testing the swing range and the swing range seems to be holding support as expected. This swing range support also falls inline with the channel half line providing stronger support.
As long as ema5 remains above the swing zone we expect price to play between this range until the full long term swing is completed into 4183. An ema5 break below the swing range will open the lower channel floor for test, currently sitting at 3824
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD volatility, monetary policy and political riskThe global OANDA:XAUUSD went through a volatile trading session on Tuesday, as prices fell more than $50 in the North American session before recovering around $30, ending the day in the green. As of Wednesday morning, November 12, spot gold stood at around $4,128/ounce, up around $2 on the day.
The main drivers of this development came from two opposing factors: the prospect of the Federal Reserve (Fed) possibly cutting interest rates in December, and capital withdrawals from gold ETFs after a long rally.
Policy pressures and labor market signals
U.S. private payrolls data, according to preliminary estimates from ADP Research, showed a weekly average of 11,250 job cuts in the four weeks ended October 25. The weaker-than-expected figure sent the dollar to a low of 99.29, giving gold a chance to rebound.
The move comes just as Washington is about to end its longest government shutdown in history, which has stalled the release of economic data. Investors are hoping the reopening of the government will quickly bring a wave of pent-up data that will help better determine the true state of the U.S. economy.
“As the government reopens, we’re going to start seeing more cracks in the economy,” said Marc Chandler, chief strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. This expectation reinforces the belief that the Fed will begin its easing cycle in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut has risen to 64%, while Fed Governor Milan hinted at the possibility of a 50 basis point cut due to a weak labor market and slowing inflation.
ETF Profit Taking, Gold Temporarily Adjusts
However, gold’s rally was capped by profit-taking in the ETF market. Bloomberg data shows gold ETFs have seen four straight weeks of outflows, after eight weeks of net buying. “Every 1% move in the gold price translates into about 10 tonnes of ETF outflows,” said Michael Haigh, head of FIC research at Société Générale.
The reversal reflects investors’ defensive sentiment after gold peaked at $4,380 an ounce in mid-October, a new record high amid political uncertainty and expectations of lower interest rates. Still, safe-haven demand was strong enough to help prices recover to $4,126.77 by the end of Tuesday’s session, up 0.3%.
US Politics: A lull ahead of data
The US Senate has passed a deal to reopen the government, while the Republican-controlled House is expected to approve it this week, before it goes to the White House for President Trump to sign into law. The reopening of the government not only ends the government shutdown but also sets the stage for a new cycle of data releases, including official jobs and inflation reports.
Medium-term outlook: Gold demand remains strong
Despite short-term volatility, fundamentals remain supportive of gold. The precious metal has risen more than 55% year-to-date, on track for its biggest gain since 1979. “The medium-term support from global easing to central bank demand remains intact,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC.
Summary
The gold market is operating in a cycle of monetary policy expectations and geopolitical safe-haven sentiment. As the Fed moves closer to easing and delayed data looms, price volatility is likely to remain high.
However, with sustained central bank buying and global risks remaining intact, gold remains a strategic asset in a reshaping global financial landscape.
Technical analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold prices are maintaining a short-term uptrend channel formed from the October bottom. After a deep correction around $3,970 – $3,850/ounce (corresponding to the Fibonacci levels of 0.382 and 0.5), the price has bounced back and is currently trading around $4,123, close to the technical resistance zone of Fib 0.236 at $4,128.
The moving average (MA21) is currently at $4,055, acting as a dynamic support zone in the short term. The recent candlestick structure shows that the bullish momentum is being consolidated with a series of higher lows, while the RSI has recovered towards 55, confirming that the bullish momentum is regaining the upper hand.
If gold holds above the $4,055 zone, the next upside targets are:
• Near resistance: $4,216 – $4,220 (psychological level and 0.236 Fibonacci resistance zone).
• Extended resistance: $4,308 – $4,380 (historic old peak zone).
On the contrary, if the price loses $4,055, the $3,972 – $3,846 zone will become the main support zone to watch, corresponding to the lower boundary of the current uptrend channel.
The overall trend remains bullish, provided the $4,055 support zone holds. The current phase is a recovery accumulation phase, which could open up a further rally towards $4,300 if US economic data continues to be weak and the Fed reinforces easing expectations.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4201 - 4199⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4205
→Take Profit 1 4193
↨
→Take Profit 2 4187
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4090 - 4092⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4086
→Take Profit 1 4098
↨
→Take Profit 2 4105
I sell the GoldGold is unable to break resistance so i take risk in selling. i am new in trading view posting i dont know how to make a post on trading view perfectly. so if i make a mistake you can correct me. i dont know how can i make a post attractive thats why post is always simple but Allahamdulillah Analysis always perfect and win ratio above 90%. Follow and stay connected every thing is free
What's the outlook for gold next week? Strategy Update
After Friday's sharp drop, gold may rebound at the beginning of the week, followed by a test of its strength. From a technical analysis perspective, the daily chart closed bearish, indicating significant downward pressure and strong short-term upward momentum. Monday's market is likely to remain bearish. Gold's rebound to around $4110-$4120 is a key resistance zone from the previous period and near the high of Thursday morning's rebound, making it highly likely to encounter resistance. Aggressive traders could consider a small short position, while more conservative traders should wait for a rebound to the $4140-$4150 range before entering short positions, as this is the upper edge of the previous consolidation range. Based on the current trend, key support is between $4050 and $40, with strong support at $4000. The previous low is at $3990. If this support level holds, the market may continue to consolidate. A break below this support level could weaken bullish sentiment.
Despite Friday's significant market volatility, our trading went very smoothly. I focus on short-term trading and clear market analysis. In short-term trading, there are no markets that rise or fall forever, only optimal entry points at specific moments. Finding the rhythm and following the trend is the essence of trading. On Friday, after the Asian market opened, we shorted at 4209 and then sold at 4190. Many friends questioned this, but I want to say, don't regret selling too early. We set profit targets and risk controls for every trade. Once the profit target was reached, we sold. After all, technical analysis becomes ineffective in the face of news. We should be grateful that we maintained four profitable short-term trades during this major market move, including both long and short positions, instead of missing the entire downtrend. You can check the historical recommendations to verify their accuracy. Although I am a professional trader, I don't need to strive to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest point on every trade. After all, I'm just a trader, not God! So we need to adjust our mindset and only earn the profits we deserve. Overall, this week's operations were quite profitable, and we will continue to work hard next week.
There's no need to panic excessively. I believe the bulls haven't completely lost control; this can be seen as a short-term pullback driven by fundamental factors. The possibility of a medium- to long-term peak in gold is unlikely; the overall bullish trend in the long term remains unchanged. The long-term bullish outlook persists because current external factors, such as geopolitical tensions, tariffs and trade tensions, the Fed's halt to tapering, and continued central bank gold purchases, do not support a medium-term peak in gold. Although the subsequent release of data following the US government shutdown may be mixed, potentially delaying the Fed's rate cuts, the overall trend of de-dollarization will not change. The current decline is merely a correction within the medium-term bullish trend.
This is just a general pre-market analysis; it will be updated based on actual market movements after the market opens. If you are unsure about precise trading strategies, try my method: first, use a small position to test the market, then add to your position during pullbacks. This way, you won't miss any opportunities. If you are truly unsure when, where, and how to trade, let's work together to flexibly and steadily pursue greater returns in the ever-changing market!
Is it Black Friday? No need to panic, strategy updateGold has closed. During the latter half of the US session, influenced by news, it fell to around 4180, finding support and reaching a high of 4211. Gold prices then fell sharply again, briefly dropping to 4145 USD before slightly recovering. Having already risen over 200 points this week, this upward move was too rapid, and the consolidation period was too short, resulting in weak upward momentum. While reaching 4250 is only a matter of time, short-term trading requires careful attention to timing. The excessive pullback during the US session has led to a correction, potentially breaking the current uptrend. Therefore, a cautious approach is advised, avoiding blindly chasing the upward trend and patiently waiting for a stabilizing signal after a pullback. This is currently a more prudent and cost-effective choice. Following market rhythm and acting according to the trend is the core principle of investing. From the current structure, the support area to watch is the 4130-40 range. Resistance is at 4175-85, and the closing price is around 4170. Will this be a Black Friday? Don't panic. Our operations will be updated based on the opening market trend and news. Just stay tuned.
I focus solely on short-term trading and clear market analysis. In short-term trading, there is no market that goes up or down forever, only the right entry point at any given moment. Find the rhythm and follow the trend. That's the essence of trading. We made 5 trades this trading day, including both long and short positions, all of which were sold at a profit. You can check the historical recommendations to verify their accuracy. For example, we sold a long position at 4193 at 4202, which rose to a high of 4211. Don't regret selling too early at that point. We have our own profit targets and risk management for each trade. Once the profit target is reached, we sell. Although I am a professional trader, it's not necessary for me to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest point in every trade. After all, I'm just a trader; I don't have God's perspective! Therefore, we need to adjust our mindset, only earning what's rightfully ours. Profit and loss are part of trading; focus on overall returns.
If you can't execute trades precisely, try the method I teach you: first, use a small position to test the market, then add to your position during pullbacks or rallies. This way, you won't miss any opportunities. If you're truly unsure when, where, and how to proceed, let's work together to flexibly and steadily pursue greater returns in the ever-changing market!






















