Trade ideas
Gold (XAU/USD) – Price Action Retest on Trendline SupportGold continues to hold its bullish momentum after a strong impulsive move from the $3,940 zone, forming a clean uptrend structure on the H1 timeframe. The current setup shows price retesting the broken trendline and holding above minor intraday support at $4,078.
A successful retest here could trigger another leg toward the upper resistance at $4,121 – $4,130, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension zone. RSI remains in the bullish territory, supporting short-term continuation bias as long as price stays above $4,050.
Trading Plan:
Entry: $4,079 – $4,082 (trendline retest area)
Stop Loss: Below $4,050
Target: $4,121 – $4,130
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2
If gold maintains structure above EMA20 and the trendline, buyers may dominate intraday. However, a breakdown below $4,050 will invalidate the bullish scenario and signal potential correction toward $4,020.
Stay alert for confirmation candles before entry, and remember—reaction at this level will determine the next move.
Follow for daily professional gold strategies and chart updates.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 10 - Nov 14]This week, international OANDA:XAUUSD prices continued to move sideways around the $4,000/oz mark and closed the week at $4,001/oz.
As the U.S. government remains partially shut down and economic data are incomplete, investors find it increasingly difficult to assess the state of the U.S. economy and its impact on the gold market. As a result, many are seeking opportunities in other markets, including stocks and the U.S. dollar. This explains why gold prices have been trading sideways.
Gold’s stability around the $4,000 level reflects an ongoing tug-of-war between fundamental factors — notably strong central bank buying, safe-haven demand, technical profit-taking pressure, and the rebound of the U.S. dollar.
Although gold prices may continue to move sideways next week, analysts believe the metal has greater upside potential than downside risk in the medium to long term.
📌From a technical perspective, the current resistance level is around 4,150, while support lies near 3,890. If the price breaks above 4,045, it could recover toward 4,150, and a further breakout could push it up to the 4,250 zone. Conversely, if the price falls below 3,900, it could trigger a sell-off, driving gold down toward the 3,750 area.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,750 – 3,900 USD
Resistance: 4,045 – 4,150 – 4,250 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4151 - 4149⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4155
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3955 - 3957⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3851
XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs. USD) on the 2-hour timeframe.XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs. USD) on the 2-hour timeframe.
From what’s visible:
My drawn a descending trendline that has been broken upward, suggesting a potential bullish breakout.
There’s also a triangle pattern (descending wedge) visible.
My chart already labels a “Target Point” marked around the $4,175 level (based on the y-axis on the right).
🎯 Approximate Target:
$4,175 – $4,180 USD per ounce
This target seems derived from the height of the wedge projected from the breakout point, which is a common method in technical analysis.
⚙ Quick reasoning:
Breakout confirmation: Price has broken above the trendline and the Ichimoku cloud.
Retest area: Around $3,980 – $4,000, which might act as support if price pulls back.
Upside target projection: Matches the wedge height projected upwards → ≈ $4,175.
GOLD – Completing Wave (5) and Preparing for a Larger ABC RetracPrice action continues to respect the impulsive downside structure. Based on the internal wave count, it looks like we are finishing the final leg of Wave (5). The subwaves are clean, momentum is weakening, and structure is tightening inside a wedge—typical behavior at the end of an impulsive sequence.
Once Wave (5) completes, I expect a corrective A-B-C retracement to unfold.
Key expectations:
🔵 Wave Structure Outlook
Wave (4) has already topped inside the falling trendline
Wave (5) likely completes near the 0% zone
A corrective bounce should follow into:
A → around 4080
B → re-test of lower support
C → potential extension towards the 0.382–0.618 retracement (4082–4143)
⚠️ Bigger Picture
Even if the ABC correction plays out, the macro trend remains strongly bearish, and the dominant descending trendline continues to cap all rallies.
After the corrective structure completes, I expect another major move down following the thick black trendline.
🎯 Levels to Watch
Support: 3983
Short-term resistance: 4044, 4082, 4113, 4143
GOLD volatility, monetary policy and political riskThe global OANDA:XAUUSD went through a volatile trading session on Tuesday, as prices fell more than $50 in the North American session before recovering around $30, ending the day in the green. As of Wednesday morning, November 12, spot gold stood at around $4,128/ounce, up around $2 on the day.
The main drivers of this development came from two opposing factors: the prospect of the Federal Reserve (Fed) possibly cutting interest rates in December, and capital withdrawals from gold ETFs after a long rally.
Policy pressures and labor market signals
U.S. private payrolls data, according to preliminary estimates from ADP Research, showed a weekly average of 11,250 job cuts in the four weeks ended October 25. The weaker-than-expected figure sent the dollar to a low of 99.29, giving gold a chance to rebound.
The move comes just as Washington is about to end its longest government shutdown in history, which has stalled the release of economic data. Investors are hoping the reopening of the government will quickly bring a wave of pent-up data that will help better determine the true state of the U.S. economy.
“As the government reopens, we’re going to start seeing more cracks in the economy,” said Marc Chandler, chief strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. This expectation reinforces the belief that the Fed will begin its easing cycle in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut has risen to 64%, while Fed Governor Milan hinted at the possibility of a 50 basis point cut due to a weak labor market and slowing inflation.
ETF Profit Taking, Gold Temporarily Adjusts
However, gold’s rally was capped by profit-taking in the ETF market. Bloomberg data shows gold ETFs have seen four straight weeks of outflows, after eight weeks of net buying. “Every 1% move in the gold price translates into about 10 tonnes of ETF outflows,” said Michael Haigh, head of FIC research at Société Générale.
The reversal reflects investors’ defensive sentiment after gold peaked at $4,380 an ounce in mid-October, a new record high amid political uncertainty and expectations of lower interest rates. Still, safe-haven demand was strong enough to help prices recover to $4,126.77 by the end of Tuesday’s session, up 0.3%.
US Politics: A lull ahead of data
The US Senate has passed a deal to reopen the government, while the Republican-controlled House is expected to approve it this week, before it goes to the White House for President Trump to sign into law. The reopening of the government not only ends the government shutdown but also sets the stage for a new cycle of data releases, including official jobs and inflation reports.
Medium-term outlook: Gold demand remains strong
Despite short-term volatility, fundamentals remain supportive of gold. The precious metal has risen more than 55% year-to-date, on track for its biggest gain since 1979. “The medium-term support from global easing to central bank demand remains intact,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC.
Summary
The gold market is operating in a cycle of monetary policy expectations and geopolitical safe-haven sentiment. As the Fed moves closer to easing and delayed data looms, price volatility is likely to remain high.
However, with sustained central bank buying and global risks remaining intact, gold remains a strategic asset in a reshaping global financial landscape.
Technical analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold prices are maintaining a short-term uptrend channel formed from the October bottom. After a deep correction around $3,970 – $3,850/ounce (corresponding to the Fibonacci levels of 0.382 and 0.5), the price has bounced back and is currently trading around $4,123, close to the technical resistance zone of Fib 0.236 at $4,128.
The moving average (MA21) is currently at $4,055, acting as a dynamic support zone in the short term. The recent candlestick structure shows that the bullish momentum is being consolidated with a series of higher lows, while the RSI has recovered towards 55, confirming that the bullish momentum is regaining the upper hand.
If gold holds above the $4,055 zone, the next upside targets are:
• Near resistance: $4,216 – $4,220 (psychological level and 0.236 Fibonacci resistance zone).
• Extended resistance: $4,308 – $4,380 (historic old peak zone).
On the contrary, if the price loses $4,055, the $3,972 – $3,846 zone will become the main support zone to watch, corresponding to the lower boundary of the current uptrend channel.
The overall trend remains bullish, provided the $4,055 support zone holds. The current phase is a recovery accumulation phase, which could open up a further rally towards $4,300 if US economic data continues to be weak and the Fed reinforces easing expectations.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4201 - 4199⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4205
→Take Profit 1 4193
↨
→Take Profit 2 4187
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4090 - 4092⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4086
→Take Profit 1 4098
↨
→Take Profit 2 4105
Gold Ascending Channel Targets 4020 ResistanceGold (XAU/USD) is trading within an ascending channel, showing bullish momentum after breaking out of the previous downtrend. Price is currently near the 4000 level, with multiple support zones below and a key support trendline holding structure. The next target is around 4020, aligning with the upper channel resistance.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis: Break of Structure & Downside Targets8
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last seen yesterday at 10:06 AM
Yesterday
GOLD (1H) — Bullish Continuation Setup | Trendline + Demand Zone Confluence
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📌 CHART ANALYSIS (For TradingView Description – Copy & Paste)
Market Structure:
Price clearly in strong uptrend after breaking previous correction low. Higher-highs & higher-lows active.
Demand Zone:
A fresh demand zone formed around 4,150 – 4,170, showing strong buying pressure.
Pullback Confirmation:
Price is retesting the EMA cloud + demand zone, showing bullish continuation.
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🎯 BUY SETUP (READY TO USE):
✅ Entry:
4,170 – 4,180
🛡 Stop-Loss:
4,130
(Just below last demand zone + liquidity wick)
🎯 Take Profits:
TP1: 4,230
TP2: 4,280
TP3: 4,350 (High probability retest zone)
💹 Risk:Reward Ratio:
RR = 1:2.5 to 1:4
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📘 Price Action Logic (Copy & Paste)
…Read more
11:53 AM
1:32 PM
Today
professional XAUUSD trade analysis based ONLY on your chart structure, with:
Entry
Stop-loss
Targets
Risk–Reward
Price action logic
Market bias
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✅ XAUUSD (1H) – Professional Trade Analysis
🔎 Chart Structure You Have Drawn
A strong bearish breakdown from the yellow supply zone (4138–4150).
Price retested the same zone and rejected it again.
Fresh impulsive bearish leg forming.
You marked three downside levels (4050, 4029, 3980) and final level around 3921.
This is a classic Break–Retest–Continuation (BRC) bearish setup.
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🎯 Ideal Entry Price
Since price is already bearish and rejecting supply:
Sell Entry:
➡️ 4070 – 4060 (after any small pullback)
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❌ Stop-Loss (SL)
Place SL above the supply zone where sellers defended:
SL:
➡️ 4155
This is the safest because above this zone, your bearish idea becomes invalid.
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🎯 Targets (Your Chart Levels + RRR)
TP1: 4050
RRR ≈ 1:2
TP2: 4029
RRR ≈ 1:3
TP3: 3980
RRR ≈ 1:5
Final Target: 3921
RRR ≈ 1:8+
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📌 Trade Setup Summary
SELL: 4070–4060
SL: 4155
TP1: 4050
TP2: 4029
TP3: 3980
TP4: 3921 (final target)
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📉 Price Action / Pattern Logic Behind the Trade
The chart shows:
✔ Break of Structure (BOS)
Price broke the previous strong support aggressively → turning structure bearish.
✔ Supply Zone Retest
Price pulled back into 4138-4150 supply and rejected → confirms seller strength.
✔ Bearish Imbalance / Fair Value Gap
Large bearish candle leaves FVG → price tends to continue filling downward.
✔ Lower High + Lower Low formation
Market clearly shifting into a downtrend on the 1-hour.
✔ Ichimoku Confirmation
Price is below cloud → bearish sentiment.
Overall Bias: Strongly Bearish
XAUUSD Has it started a Bear Cycle according to the Dollar??Gold (XAUUSD) may be rising early into the week on news of a potential U.S. government opening but remains heavily rejected from the Highs of the past 3 weeks.
At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY illustrated by the black trend-line) has been staging its first legitimate bottom since December 2020 and is rebounding. That DXY's bottom came a few months after Gold's top for that Cycle. The result was the start of Gold's new 2-year Bear Cycle.
In fact that DXY bottoming pattern was also present in 2011, right before Gold topped this time. This suggests that the current DXY bottom has the potential to start a new multi-year rally, hence a new Bear Cycle for Gold.
This pattern is further strengthened by the fact that Gold has formed a Quadruple Top on its 1W RSI Resistance Zone, similar to both of its previous Cycle Top patterns since 2011.
Is the Dollar signaling a Bear Cycle on Gold?
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I sell the GoldGold is unable to break resistance so i take risk in selling. i am new in trading view posting i dont know how to make a post on trading view perfectly. so if i make a mistake you can correct me. i dont know how can i make a post attractive thats why post is always simple but Allahamdulillah Analysis always perfect and win ratio above 90%. Follow and stay connected every thing is free
Gold Analysis H4 - Bullish orderflowAfter gold broke below the 3944.48 level, the market initially showed signs of further downside movement, potentially aiming to sweep more liquidity resting beneath that zone. However, the nature of the breakout suggests that it could itself be a liquidity grab rather than the start of a genuine bearish continuation.
The candle that broke this level was quickly rejected, indicating that selling pressure may have been absorbed by strong buy orders. This kind of price reaction often signals the presence of institutional accumulation or smart money activity.
As a result, the order flow now appears to be shifting, potentially preparing for a bullish move. If momentum continues to build, price may aim to sweep the liquidity resting above the trendline before deciding on the next directional move.
What's the outlook for gold next week? Strategy Update
After Friday's sharp drop, gold may rebound at the beginning of the week, followed by a test of its strength. From a technical analysis perspective, the daily chart closed bearish, indicating significant downward pressure and strong short-term upward momentum. Monday's market is likely to remain bearish. Gold's rebound to around $4110-$4120 is a key resistance zone from the previous period and near the high of Thursday morning's rebound, making it highly likely to encounter resistance. Aggressive traders could consider a small short position, while more conservative traders should wait for a rebound to the $4140-$4150 range before entering short positions, as this is the upper edge of the previous consolidation range. Based on the current trend, key support is between $4050 and $40, with strong support at $4000. The previous low is at $3990. If this support level holds, the market may continue to consolidate. A break below this support level could weaken bullish sentiment.
Despite Friday's significant market volatility, our trading went very smoothly. I focus on short-term trading and clear market analysis. In short-term trading, there are no markets that rise or fall forever, only optimal entry points at specific moments. Finding the rhythm and following the trend is the essence of trading. On Friday, after the Asian market opened, we shorted at 4209 and then sold at 4190. Many friends questioned this, but I want to say, don't regret selling too early. We set profit targets and risk controls for every trade. Once the profit target was reached, we sold. After all, technical analysis becomes ineffective in the face of news. We should be grateful that we maintained four profitable short-term trades during this major market move, including both long and short positions, instead of missing the entire downtrend. You can check the historical recommendations to verify their accuracy. Although I am a professional trader, I don't need to strive to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest point on every trade. After all, I'm just a trader, not God! So we need to adjust our mindset and only earn the profits we deserve. Overall, this week's operations were quite profitable, and we will continue to work hard next week.
There's no need to panic excessively. I believe the bulls haven't completely lost control; this can be seen as a short-term pullback driven by fundamental factors. The possibility of a medium- to long-term peak in gold is unlikely; the overall bullish trend in the long term remains unchanged. The long-term bullish outlook persists because current external factors, such as geopolitical tensions, tariffs and trade tensions, the Fed's halt to tapering, and continued central bank gold purchases, do not support a medium-term peak in gold. Although the subsequent release of data following the US government shutdown may be mixed, potentially delaying the Fed's rate cuts, the overall trend of de-dollarization will not change. The current decline is merely a correction within the medium-term bullish trend.
This is just a general pre-market analysis; it will be updated based on actual market movements after the market opens. If you are unsure about precise trading strategies, try my method: first, use a small position to test the market, then add to your position during pullbacks. This way, you won't miss any opportunities. If you are truly unsure when, where, and how to trade, let's work together to flexibly and steadily pursue greater returns in the ever-changing market!
HOW MANY BUYER TRAPS BEFORE NEW ATH GOLD ?📈 Analysis of Gold Trading Plan (SMC/Order Flow)
🔍 Current Market Context
Structure: The market has shown a strong bullish trend, marked by a Break of Structure (BOS) and a Liquidity Done Sweep around the $4,145 price level.
Liquidity:
The market performed a "First Sweep Here" (initial liquidity grab) after the rally, signaling a readiness for a correction.
The main liquidity target for the upward move (Big Boy Liquidity) is set above the $4,240 level.
Recent Price Action: After hitting the peak and the initial sweep, the price experienced a sharp decline, creating a correction zone.
🎯 Proposed Trading Plan
The plan focuses on two main scenarios: a Short-term Sell (SELL SCALP) and a Primary Buy (BUY GOLD).
1. Primary Buy Scenario (BUY GOLD)
This is the main scenario to continue the bullish trend (Long).
Entry Zone: BUY GOLD 4126 - 4124.
This zone is likely a critical Order Block or an unmitigated Demand Zone, positioned just below the previous liquidity sweep and acting as a strong support/Displaced/Fair Value Gap (FVG) area.
Stop Loss (SL): SL 4120.
This stop-loss level protects the long position, placed just below the key entry zone to avoid being shaken out by minor liquidity grabs.
The indicated Stoploss Buyer area (around $4,145 - $4,150) suggests the price drop might aim to sweep prior buyers' liquidity before bouncing from the $4,124 - $4,126 zone.
Take Profit (TP): The ultimate target is the Liquidity Limit Big Boy (above $4,240).
2. Short-term Sell Scenario (SELL SCALP)
This is a short-term trading opportunity (Scalping) during the corrective move.
Entry Zone: SELL SCALP 4208 - 4210.
This area likely represents a Supply Zone or a bearish Order Block following the sharp drop, where hidden selling pressure resides.
Stop Loss (SL): SL 4212.
This is a very tight stop loss, placed just above the entry zone.
Take Profit (TP): The target is the BUY GOLD 4126 - 4124 area (the primary buy entry zone).
⚠️ Key Considerations
Timeline: This plan requires the price to move according to the predicted scenario (drop to the buy zone before rallying).
Confirmation: Traders should wait for structural confirmation on a lower timeframe (e.g., a Change of Character - CHoCH or a bullish BOS) at the 4126 - 4124 buy zone before entering the trade to improve the probability of success.
Risk Management: Using the suggested Stop Loss (SL) is mandatory for capital protection.
Is it Black Friday? No need to panic, strategy updateGold has closed. During the latter half of the US session, influenced by news, it fell to around 4180, finding support and reaching a high of 4211. Gold prices then fell sharply again, briefly dropping to 4145 USD before slightly recovering. Having already risen over 200 points this week, this upward move was too rapid, and the consolidation period was too short, resulting in weak upward momentum. While reaching 4250 is only a matter of time, short-term trading requires careful attention to timing. The excessive pullback during the US session has led to a correction, potentially breaking the current uptrend. Therefore, a cautious approach is advised, avoiding blindly chasing the upward trend and patiently waiting for a stabilizing signal after a pullback. This is currently a more prudent and cost-effective choice. Following market rhythm and acting according to the trend is the core principle of investing. From the current structure, the support area to watch is the 4130-40 range. Resistance is at 4175-85, and the closing price is around 4170. Will this be a Black Friday? Don't panic. Our operations will be updated based on the opening market trend and news. Just stay tuned.
I focus solely on short-term trading and clear market analysis. In short-term trading, there is no market that goes up or down forever, only the right entry point at any given moment. Find the rhythm and follow the trend. That's the essence of trading. We made 5 trades this trading day, including both long and short positions, all of which were sold at a profit. You can check the historical recommendations to verify their accuracy. For example, we sold a long position at 4193 at 4202, which rose to a high of 4211. Don't regret selling too early at that point. We have our own profit targets and risk management for each trade. Once the profit target is reached, we sell. Although I am a professional trader, it's not necessary for me to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest point in every trade. After all, I'm just a trader; I don't have God's perspective! Therefore, we need to adjust our mindset, only earning what's rightfully ours. Profit and loss are part of trading; focus on overall returns.
If you can't execute trades precisely, try the method I teach you: first, use a small position to test the market, then add to your position during pullbacks or rallies. This way, you won't miss any opportunities. If you're truly unsure when, where, and how to proceed, let's work together to flexibly and steadily pursue greater returns in the ever-changing market!
GOLD XAUUSD GOLD ,newyork session rejected the sell at 4038-4040 floor ,a previous broken supply roof now a demand floor and on technical could retest 4100 coming week.
13th November during newyork session rejected the 4243-4244 zone ,the technical analysis hinged on daily double top structure break of neckline and buyers return to retest a broken neckline at 4243-4044 and dropped to 4146-4150 zone during the newyork session ,on 4hrs using the line chart we have a strong psychological horizontal structure and another break and retest to close newyork session on another 200pips buy trigger.
break and close 4146-4150 was another bearish correction into 4036-4040.
break and close will challenge another key low at 3889-3885.5 strong psychological demand floor on 4hr TF.
GOOD LUCK AND SEE YOU AT THE TOP.






















