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Gold Price Forecast | Smart Money Levels (Nov 12, 2025)OANDA:XAUUSD GOLD ANALYSIS - What’s Moving the Market Today?
(Updated: November 12, 2025) 💠 Trade with DECRYPTERS
We keep it simple - Smart Money zones define the battlefield. Follow institutional footprints, not noise. 🔮 ASTROLOGY INSIGHT Mercury ♂ Mars = Mixed → Bearish if risk-on
Expect volatility and fake-outs near resistance as sentiment stays uncertain. 📊 MARKET OVERVIEW Gold trades around $4,135-$4,145, showing resilience despite U.S. dollar swings. * DXY slips to ~99.35 amid shutdown uncertainty and weaker risk tone. * Fed holds rates steady at 3.75–4.00%; next cut odds at 55% for December. * Central banks continue strong buying (+220t in Q3, led by Poland’s +67t). * ETF inflows remain firm at +222t - investor demand steady. * Geopolitical tensions (Mideast + US–China tariffs) sustain safe-haven flows. Gold remains locked between institutional buy/sell blocks, Smart Money setting up heavy positions from 4,028–4,206. 🧭 SMART MONEY LEVELS (LIVE UPDATE) Smart Money Sell Area: 4206–4191 → Major liquidity zone; rejection likely.
Sell Reaction Zone: 4165–4153 → Intraday resistance, ideal for quick fades.
Smart Money Buy Area: 4028–4011 → Deep liquidity accumulation zone for swing buys. 📍 Millions in pending institutional orders rest within these zones. 📅 WHAT TO WATCH NEXT * Nov 13 CPI: Expect ~3.0% core, shutdown delays may trigger volatility. * Dec FOMC: 55% odds of a 25bps cut; Fed cautious until full data returns. * Geopolitical Risk: Mideast or tariff escalation = 🟢 bullish spike.
Resolution = 🔴 USD rebound → gold pressure. Break Zones:
🔸 Hold above 4,120 → targets 4,165–4,170
🔸 Break below 4,100 → slide toward 4,050–4,028 🎯 TRADE PLAN Stay tactical — trade zones, not emotions. * Buy Dips: 4,090–4,120 → Targets 4,150–4,170 * Sell Rallies: 4,165–4,190 → Stops above 4,206 Bias remains bullish while above 4,120; short-term sentiment may turn mildly bearish if risk appetite improves. 🧠 CONCLUSION Gold remains supported by central bank demand and geopolitical risk, even as Fed policy and DXY limit major upside.
Expect range-bound volatility with bullish lean above 4,100.
Trade reaction, not prediction.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DECRYPTERS
Gold: Open path to lower grounds?The price of gold was following general market sentiment during the previous week, and was traded in swings. The start of the week was marked with an increased demand for gold, bringing the price to the level of $4.243. However, Friday trading session brought a modest correction, where gold was headed toward the $4.035, but closed the week at $4.079. The RSI closed the week at the level of 53, after previously reaching the level of 61. The indicator is showing that the market is struggling to take a clear path toward the oversold market side. The MA50 and MA200 lines are still moving without change - as two parallel lines with an uptrend. Current charts are showing that the gold has an important level around $4.100, while strong support holds at $3.930. Friday trading session showed that the support at $4.1K was breached, which leaves the path open toward testing the $3.930 support. In this sense, the first stop for the price of gold might be the $4K level, before it continues its move further to the support line. With respect to the opposite side, there is currently some probability that the level of $4.1K could be tested again, and much lower probability for the level of $4,2K.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XBTFX
GOLD GOES " ̶T̶R̶I̶P̶L̶E̶ ̶V̶O̶D̶K̶A̶" TRIPLE TOP PATTERNGold has recently exhibited strong technical momentum, rebounding from its $3,900 support and surpassing the 50-day moving average, which marks a bullish reversal after a late-October dip. Immediate support is at $4100 per ounce. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising, confirming buyers have regained control in the short-term and signaling the possibility for further upside. BUY THE DIP SCENARIO Current trading strategies suggest buying near support and targeting resistance upward, demonstrating an underlying “buy on dips” scenario as gold consolidates above $4100. WHAT IS " ̶T̶R̶I̶P̶L̶E̶ ̶V̶O̶D̶K̶A̶" TRIPLE TOP PATTERN The triple top pattern is a bearish reversal technical chart pattern signaling the potential end of an uptrend and the beginning of a downtrend. It forms after an asset price hits the same resistance level three times but fails to break above it, creating three distinct peaks at roughly the same price level. Between these peaks are pullbacks or troughs, forming support levels. The pattern is confirmed only when the price breaks below the support (neckline) formed by these troughs. The psychology behind this pattern shows weakening buying power as the price fails to surpass the resistance level on three attempts. Each peak typically has declining volume, reflecting decreased buying enthusiasm. After the third peak, sellers could gain control, and the price could falls below support with increased volume, confirming the reversal. CONCLUSION Traders use the triple top to anticipate the exhaustion of bullish momentum, signaling caution and opportunities to enter short positions or exit longs. The pattern reflects supply overwhelming demand after repeated failed rallies, indicating a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment. It is considered a reliable indicator after a sustained uptrend and is used with risk management strategies to navigate market turns effectively. TECHNICAL SUMMARY Just simply take a look at history of Gold. It says: " ̶T̶R̶I̶P̶L̶E̶ ̶V̶O̶D̶K̶A̶" TRIPLE TOP. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by PandorraResearch
XAU/USD | Gold’s Sharp Breakdown – Bears Still in Control!By analyzing the Gold (XAUUSD) chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that after several days of consolidation, price finally broke down sharply, hitting all our targets at $3,999, $3,985, and $3,947, and extending to $3,928 — delivering over 700 pips in profit. After reaching the marked demand zone, gold bounced slightly and is now trading around $3,940. However, unless we see strong bullish momentum soon, a deeper decline remains likely. The next potential downside targets are $3,930, $3,915, and $3,905. Further targets and updates will be shared in the next analysis. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OPOFINANCE:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
44
GOLD – Completing Wave (5) and Preparing for a Larger ABC RetracPrice action continues to respect the impulsive downside structure. Based on the internal wave count, it looks like we are finishing the final leg of Wave (5). The subwaves are clean, momentum is weakening, and structure is tightening inside a wedge—typical behavior at the end of an impulsive sequence. Once Wave (5) completes, I expect a corrective A-B-C retracement to unfold. Key expectations: 🔵 Wave Structure Outlook Wave (4) has already topped inside the falling trendline Wave (5) likely completes near the 0% zone A corrective bounce should follow into: A → around 4080 B → re-test of lower support C → potential extension towards the 0.382–0.618 retracement (4082–4143) ⚠️ Bigger Picture Even if the ABC correction plays out, the macro trend remains strongly bearish, and the dominant descending trendline continues to cap all rallies. After the corrective structure completes, I expect another major move down following the thick black trendline. 🎯 Levels to Watch Support: 3983 Short-term resistance: 4044, 4082, 4113, 4143
FX:XAUUSDShort
by MrLiquidonFX
Gold (XAU/USD) – Price Action Retest on Trendline SupportGold continues to hold its bullish momentum after a strong impulsive move from the $3,940 zone, forming a clean uptrend structure on the H1 timeframe. The current setup shows price retesting the broken trendline and holding above minor intraday support at $4,078. A successful retest here could trigger another leg toward the upper resistance at $4,121 – $4,130, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension zone. RSI remains in the bullish territory, supporting short-term continuation bias as long as price stays above $4,050. Trading Plan: Entry: $4,079 – $4,082 (trendline retest area) Stop Loss: Below $4,050 Target: $4,121 – $4,130 Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2 If gold maintains structure above EMA20 and the trendline, buyers may dominate intraday. However, a breakdown below $4,050 will invalidate the bullish scenario and signal potential correction toward $4,020. Stay alert for confirmation candles before entry, and remember—reaction at this level will determine the next move. Follow for daily professional gold strategies and chart updates.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
4
XAUUSD Technical Analysis: Break of Structure & Downside Targets8 4 2 1 last seen yesterday at 10:06 AM Yesterday GOLD (1H) — Bullish Continuation Setup | Trendline + Demand Zone Confluence --- 📌 CHART ANALYSIS (For TradingView Description – Copy & Paste) Market Structure: Price clearly in strong uptrend after breaking previous correction low. Higher-highs & higher-lows active. Demand Zone: A fresh demand zone formed around 4,150 – 4,170, showing strong buying pressure. Pullback Confirmation: Price is retesting the EMA cloud + demand zone, showing bullish continuation. --- 🎯 BUY SETUP (READY TO USE): ✅ Entry: 4,170 – 4,180 🛡 Stop-Loss: 4,130 (Just below last demand zone + liquidity wick) 🎯 Take Profits: TP1: 4,230 TP2: 4,280 TP3: 4,350 (High probability retest zone) 💹 Risk:Reward Ratio: RR = 1:2.5 to 1:4 --- 📘 Price Action Logic (Copy & Paste) …Read more 11:53 AM 1:32 PM Today professional XAUUSD trade analysis based ONLY on your chart structure, with: Entry Stop-loss Targets Risk–Reward Price action logic Market bias --- ✅ XAUUSD (1H) – Professional Trade Analysis 🔎 Chart Structure You Have Drawn A strong bearish breakdown from the yellow supply zone (4138–4150). Price retested the same zone and rejected it again. Fresh impulsive bearish leg forming. You marked three downside levels (4050, 4029, 3980) and final level around 3921. This is a classic Break–Retest–Continuation (BRC) bearish setup. --- 🎯 Ideal Entry Price Since price is already bearish and rejecting supply: Sell Entry: ➡️ 4070 – 4060 (after any small pullback) --- ❌ Stop-Loss (SL) Place SL above the supply zone where sellers defended: SL: ➡️ 4155 This is the safest because above this zone, your bearish idea becomes invalid. --- 🎯 Targets (Your Chart Levels + RRR) TP1: 4050 RRR ≈ 1:2 TP2: 4029 RRR ≈ 1:3 TP3: 3980 RRR ≈ 1:5 Final Target: 3921 RRR ≈ 1:8+ --- 📌 Trade Setup Summary SELL: 4070–4060 SL: 4155 TP1: 4050 TP2: 4029 TP3: 3980 TP4: 3921 (final target) --- 📉 Price Action / Pattern Logic Behind the Trade The chart shows: ✔ Break of Structure (BOS) Price broke the previous strong support aggressively → turning structure bearish. ✔ Supply Zone Retest Price pulled back into 4138-4150 supply and rejected → confirms seller strength. ✔ Bearish Imbalance / Fair Value Gap Large bearish candle leaves FVG → price tends to continue filling downward. ✔ Lower High + Lower Low formation Market clearly shifting into a downtrend on the 1-hour. ✔ Ichimoku Confirmation Price is below cloud → bearish sentiment. Overall Bias: Strongly Bearish
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GOLD_PRO-TRADER
3
GOLD volatility, monetary policy and political riskThe global OANDA:XAUUSD went through a volatile trading session on Tuesday, as prices fell more than $50 in the North American session before recovering around $30, ending the day in the green. As of Wednesday morning, November 12, spot gold stood at around $4,128/ounce, up around $2 on the day. The main drivers of this development came from two opposing factors: the prospect of the Federal Reserve (Fed) possibly cutting interest rates in December, and capital withdrawals from gold ETFs after a long rally. Policy pressures and labor market signals U.S. private payrolls data, according to preliminary estimates from ADP Research, showed a weekly average of 11,250 job cuts in the four weeks ended October 25. The weaker-than-expected figure sent the dollar to a low of 99.29, giving gold a chance to rebound. The move comes just as Washington is about to end its longest government shutdown in history, which has stalled the release of economic data. Investors are hoping the reopening of the government will quickly bring a wave of pent-up data that will help better determine the true state of the U.S. economy. “As the government reopens, we’re going to start seeing more cracks in the economy,” said Marc Chandler, chief strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. This expectation reinforces the belief that the Fed will begin its easing cycle in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut has risen to 64%, while Fed Governor Milan hinted at the possibility of a 50 basis point cut due to a weak labor market and slowing inflation. ETF Profit Taking, Gold Temporarily Adjusts However, gold’s rally was capped by profit-taking in the ETF market. Bloomberg data shows gold ETFs have seen four straight weeks of outflows, after eight weeks of net buying. “Every 1% move in the gold price translates into about 10 tonnes of ETF outflows,” said Michael Haigh, head of FIC research at Société Générale. The reversal reflects investors’ defensive sentiment after gold peaked at $4,380 an ounce in mid-October, a new record high amid political uncertainty and expectations of lower interest rates. Still, safe-haven demand was strong enough to help prices recover to $4,126.77 by the end of Tuesday’s session, up 0.3%. US Politics: A lull ahead of data The US Senate has passed a deal to reopen the government, while the Republican-controlled House is expected to approve it this week, before it goes to the White House for President Trump to sign into law. The reopening of the government not only ends the government shutdown but also sets the stage for a new cycle of data releases, including official jobs and inflation reports. Medium-term outlook: Gold demand remains strong Despite short-term volatility, fundamentals remain supportive of gold. The precious metal has risen more than 55% year-to-date, on track for its biggest gain since 1979. “The medium-term support from global easing to central bank demand remains intact,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC. Summary The gold market is operating in a cycle of monetary policy expectations and geopolitical safe-haven sentiment. As the Fed moves closer to easing and delayed data looms, price volatility is likely to remain high. However, with sustained central bank buying and global risks remaining intact, gold remains a strategic asset in a reshaping global financial landscape. Technical analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold prices are maintaining a short-term uptrend channel formed from the October bottom. After a deep correction around $3,970 – $3,850/ounce (corresponding to the Fibonacci levels of 0.382 and 0.5), the price has bounced back and is currently trading around $4,123, close to the technical resistance zone of Fib 0.236 at $4,128. The moving average (MA21) is currently at $4,055, acting as a dynamic support zone in the short term. The recent candlestick structure shows that the bullish momentum is being consolidated with a series of higher lows, while the RSI has recovered towards 55, confirming that the bullish momentum is regaining the upper hand. If gold holds above the $4,055 zone, the next upside targets are: • Near resistance: $4,216 – $4,220 (psychological level and 0.236 Fibonacci resistance zone). • Extended resistance: $4,308 – $4,380 (historic old peak zone). On the contrary, if the price loses $4,055, the $3,972 – $3,846 zone will become the main support zone to watch, corresponding to the lower boundary of the current uptrend channel. The overall trend remains bullish, provided the $4,055 support zone holds. The current phase is a recovery accumulation phase, which could open up a further rally towards $4,300 if US economic data continues to be weak and the Fed reinforces easing expectations. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4201 - 4199⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4205 →Take Profit 1 4193 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4187 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4090 - 4092⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4086 →Take Profit 1 4098 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4105
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Gold buy idea Gold been traded in a range for the past 10h . Trade plane :- #1 Gold has to break the daily swing with FVG with above average volume "spike" wait for market to retest the D swing H and look for engulfing candle or pin bar #2 if I fail to break D swing H wait for market to drop back to micro demand and wait for the same confirmation engulfing candle or pin bar with above average volume #3 do not trade NY open market is already trade in a small range NY might fake out just to grab liquidity. Wait 15 to 20 minutes for NY and London liquidity to set first then follow the instructions above. If market keep traded in the same range then avoid trading for the day
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FXGOD22
1
What's the outlook for gold next week? Strategy Update After Friday's sharp drop, gold may rebound at the beginning of the week, followed by a test of its strength. From a technical analysis perspective, the daily chart closed bearish, indicating significant downward pressure and strong short-term upward momentum. Monday's market is likely to remain bearish. Gold's rebound to around $4110-$4120 is a key resistance zone from the previous period and near the high of Thursday morning's rebound, making it highly likely to encounter resistance. Aggressive traders could consider a small short position, while more conservative traders should wait for a rebound to the $4140-$4150 range before entering short positions, as this is the upper edge of the previous consolidation range. Based on the current trend, key support is between $4050 and $40, with strong support at $4000. The previous low is at $3990. If this support level holds, the market may continue to consolidate. A break below this support level could weaken bullish sentiment. Despite Friday's significant market volatility, our trading went very smoothly. I focus on short-term trading and clear market analysis. In short-term trading, there are no markets that rise or fall forever, only optimal entry points at specific moments. Finding the rhythm and following the trend is the essence of trading. On Friday, after the Asian market opened, we shorted at 4209 and then sold at 4190. Many friends questioned this, but I want to say, don't regret selling too early. We set profit targets and risk controls for every trade. Once the profit target was reached, we sold. After all, technical analysis becomes ineffective in the face of news. We should be grateful that we maintained four profitable short-term trades during this major market move, including both long and short positions, instead of missing the entire downtrend. You can check the historical recommendations to verify their accuracy. Although I am a professional trader, I don't need to strive to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest point on every trade. After all, I'm just a trader, not God! So we need to adjust our mindset and only earn the profits we deserve. Overall, this week's operations were quite profitable, and we will continue to work hard next week. There's no need to panic excessively. I believe the bulls haven't completely lost control; this can be seen as a short-term pullback driven by fundamental factors. The possibility of a medium- to long-term peak in gold is unlikely; the overall bullish trend in the long term remains unchanged. The long-term bullish outlook persists because current external factors, such as geopolitical tensions, tariffs and trade tensions, the Fed's halt to tapering, and continued central bank gold purchases, do not support a medium-term peak in gold. Although the subsequent release of data following the US government shutdown may be mixed, potentially delaying the Fed's rate cuts, the overall trend of de-dollarization will not change. The current decline is merely a correction within the medium-term bullish trend. This is just a general pre-market analysis; it will be updated based on actual market movements after the market opens. If you are unsure about precise trading strategies, try my method: first, use a small position to test the market, then add to your position during pullbacks. This way, you won't miss any opportunities. If you are truly unsure when, where, and how to trade, let's work together to flexibly and steadily pursue greater returns in the ever-changing market!
TVC:GOLD
by FIGONRXS
1
HOW MANY BUYER TRAPS BEFORE NEW ATH GOLD ?📈 Analysis of Gold Trading Plan (SMC/Order Flow) 🔍 Current Market Context Structure: The market has shown a strong bullish trend, marked by a Break of Structure (BOS) and a Liquidity Done Sweep around the $4,145 price level. Liquidity: The market performed a "First Sweep Here" (initial liquidity grab) after the rally, signaling a readiness for a correction. The main liquidity target for the upward move (Big Boy Liquidity) is set above the $4,240 level. Recent Price Action: After hitting the peak and the initial sweep, the price experienced a sharp decline, creating a correction zone. 🎯 Proposed Trading Plan The plan focuses on two main scenarios: a Short-term Sell (SELL SCALP) and a Primary Buy (BUY GOLD). 1. Primary Buy Scenario (BUY GOLD) This is the main scenario to continue the bullish trend (Long). Entry Zone: BUY GOLD 4126 - 4124. This zone is likely a critical Order Block or an unmitigated Demand Zone, positioned just below the previous liquidity sweep and acting as a strong support/Displaced/Fair Value Gap (FVG) area. Stop Loss (SL): SL 4120. This stop-loss level protects the long position, placed just below the key entry zone to avoid being shaken out by minor liquidity grabs. The indicated Stoploss Buyer area (around $4,145 - $4,150) suggests the price drop might aim to sweep prior buyers' liquidity before bouncing from the $4,124 - $4,126 zone. Take Profit (TP): The ultimate target is the Liquidity Limit Big Boy (above $4,240). 2. Short-term Sell Scenario (SELL SCALP) This is a short-term trading opportunity (Scalping) during the corrective move. Entry Zone: SELL SCALP 4208 - 4210. This area likely represents a Supply Zone or a bearish Order Block following the sharp drop, where hidden selling pressure resides. Stop Loss (SL): SL 4212. This is a very tight stop loss, placed just above the entry zone. Take Profit (TP): The target is the BUY GOLD 4126 - 4124 area (the primary buy entry zone). ⚠️ Key Considerations Timeline: This plan requires the price to move according to the predicted scenario (drop to the buy zone before rallying). Confirmation: Traders should wait for structural confirmation on a lower timeframe (e.g., a Change of Character - CHoCH or a bullish BOS) at the 4126 - 4124 buy zone before entering the trade to improve the probability of success. Risk Management: Using the suggested Stop Loss (SL) is mandatory for capital protection.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Linda_OneShotTrader
GOLD XAUUSD GOLD ,newyork session rejected the sell at 4038-4040 floor ,a previous broken supply roof now a demand floor and on technical could retest 4100 coming week. 13th November during newyork session rejected the 4243-4244 zone ,the technical analysis hinged on daily double top structure break of neckline and buyers return to retest a broken neckline at 4243-4044 and dropped to 4146-4150 zone during the newyork session ,on 4hrs using the line chart we have a strong psychological horizontal structure and another break and retest to close newyork session on another 200pips buy trigger. break and close 4146-4150 was another bearish correction into 4036-4040. break and close will challenge another key low at 3889-3885.5 strong psychological demand floor on 4hr TF. GOOD LUCK AND SEE YOU AT THE TOP.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Is it Black Friday? No need to panic, strategy updateGold has closed. During the latter half of the US session, influenced by news, it fell to around 4180, finding support and reaching a high of 4211. Gold prices then fell sharply again, briefly dropping to 4145 USD before slightly recovering. Having already risen over 200 points this week, this upward move was too rapid, and the consolidation period was too short, resulting in weak upward momentum. While reaching 4250 is only a matter of time, short-term trading requires careful attention to timing. The excessive pullback during the US session has led to a correction, potentially breaking the current uptrend. Therefore, a cautious approach is advised, avoiding blindly chasing the upward trend and patiently waiting for a stabilizing signal after a pullback. This is currently a more prudent and cost-effective choice. Following market rhythm and acting according to the trend is the core principle of investing. From the current structure, the support area to watch is the 4130-40 range. Resistance is at 4175-85, and the closing price is around 4170. Will this be a Black Friday? Don't panic. Our operations will be updated based on the opening market trend and news. Just stay tuned. I focus solely on short-term trading and clear market analysis. In short-term trading, there is no market that goes up or down forever, only the right entry point at any given moment. Find the rhythm and follow the trend. That's the essence of trading. We made 5 trades this trading day, including both long and short positions, all of which were sold at a profit. You can check the historical recommendations to verify their accuracy. For example, we sold a long position at 4193 at 4202, which rose to a high of 4211. Don't regret selling too early at that point. We have our own profit targets and risk management for each trade. Once the profit target is reached, we sell. Although I am a professional trader, it's not necessary for me to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest point in every trade. After all, I'm just a trader; I don't have God's perspective! Therefore, we need to adjust our mindset, only earning what's rightfully ours. Profit and loss are part of trading; focus on overall returns. If you can't execute trades precisely, try the method I teach you: first, use a small position to test the market, then add to your position during pullbacks or rallies. This way, you won't miss any opportunities. If you're truly unsure when, where, and how to proceed, let's work together to flexibly and steadily pursue greater returns in the ever-changing market!
TVC:GOLD
by FIGONRXS