Gold Breakout: Exhaustion Risk into Fresh Record HighGold is breaking uptrend resistance today with price stretching to fresh record highs. An embedded channel highlights the next technical hurdle at the 300% extension of the 2011 decline at 3666- risk for topside exhaustion / price inflection into this threshold IF reached.
Initial support now rests back at 3600 with near-term bullish invalidation raised to 3578- losses should be limited to this threshold IF price is heading higher on this stretch. A topside breach / daily close above channel resistance exposes the 1.618% extension of the May advance at 3782.
-MB
GOLD trade ideas
SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)📊 Trade Breakdown – English
1. Institutional Trap
The market first swept liquidity below, trapping impatient buyers and creating fear. Classic institutional move before the real direction.
2. ChoCh and BOS
A Change of Character (ChoCh) appeared, signaling buyers taking control. Then a Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed bullish momentum.
3. Rejection and Fake Out
A small fake out tricked sellers at resistance, followed by multiple rejections at the support zone → showing strong buyer pressure.
4. Demand Zone
Price respected the Demand Zone, where institutions accumulated long positions and defended that area.
5. Patience and Discipline
This was not an instant trade. It took time to develop, but patience paid off. Those who held their position saw price skyrocket straight to the new 3600 target (historic HH).
📌 Lesson for beginners:
Trading is not luck — it’s all about discipline, patience, and waiting for confirmations. The market always leaves “clues” → if you follow them calmly, results come.
———————————————-GOOD JOB TRADERS ;)————————————————-
US PPI Data Preview (Aug 2025) – Impact on USD, Gold, and Fed RaThe US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August 2025 will be released on September 10th. PPI measures the prices producers receive for goods and services, making it one of the earliest indicators of inflation trends.
July 2025 Recap
PPI MoM: +0.9% (biggest jump in 5 months, mainly services)
PPI YoY: +3.3% (highest since early 2025)
Core PPI (ex-food & energy): +0.9%
Core-Core PPI: +0.6% (largest since 2022)
The surge was driven by service costs and tariffs on goods.
What to Expect in August
Headline PPI MoM: Likely 0.2% – 0.4% (a slowdown after July’s spike)
Core PPI MoM: Around 0.3% – 0.5% (services stabilizing)
PPI YoY: Could ease to 2.8% – 3.2%
Tariffs, energy prices, and service costs remain the key risks.
Why This Matters for Markets
If PPI comes in hotter than expected, inflation fears rise → less chance of a Fed rate cut → USD stronger, Gold weaker, stocks cautious.
If PPI is softer, markets may price in a September Fed cut → USD weaker, Gold and risk assets supported.
Core-Core PPI (ex-food, energy, trade services) is critical to see the real inflation trend.
Market Watch
Dollar Index (DXY): Could gain on strong PPI, slip on weak PPI.
EUR/USD: Around 1.16 – sensitive to inflation data & Fed bets.
Gold (XAU/USD): Likely to benefit from weaker data and safe-haven flows.
S&P 500 / Stocks: Bullish if inflation cools, cautious if hot.
Conclusion:
August PPI is expected to cool slightly after July’s jump. If inflation pressure eases, the Fed may stick to rate cut plans, which could lift Gold and risk assets. But if service and tariff costs stay high, expect the Dollar and yields to rise.
👉 What do you think? Will the PPI surprise higher and boost the Dollar, or cool down and give Gold a push?
#PPI #USD #Gold #Forex #Fed #Inflation #Trading #tradewithdecrypters
Gold Breaks Higher — What Now?We flagged this breakout before it happened, thanks to rising reaction lows within the range. Now that gold’s pushed through resistance, the question is: where do you manage your risk?
🔍 I drop down to the 4-hour chart and use the Ichimoku cloud for clarity. We have support currently around 3,540 — and offers a solid stop placement.
✨ Watch for this classic cloud signal:
→ Leading line breaks above the cloud
→ Price follows through above the cloud
That’s often your cue a move higher is underway.
🎯 Upside targets remain:
→ 3,860
→ 3,900
Both align with range projections and Fibonacci extensions.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Gold Keeps Searching for New HighsHello everyone, what are your thoughts on OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Gold continues to surprise us one move after another. As the new week opened, the precious metal recorded a historic breakout, trading near the $3,500 level amid ongoing global economic turbulence.
From a technical perspective, XAUUSD maintains a solid bullish structure, breaking past key resistance levels. The EMA 34 and 89 both confirm that there is still plenty of room for further upside. This rally not only reflects the market’s “gold hunting” sentiment but also opens major opportunities for traders who can catch the right wave.
So, how should we trade? At this sensitive stage, buyers may find it difficult to identify an ideal entry point. For sellers, no new top has yet been confirmed. That’s why it may be safer to wait for clearer signals—whether gold sets a new high or establishes fresh support. For short-term traders, make sure you set both SL and TP with a ratio of 1:1 or 1:2.
In addition, there are several news events this week and in the near future that could further impact gold’s trend. I’ll cover these in upcoming analyses, so stay tuned.
And you—what do you think about XAUUSD’s direction? Leave a like if you agree with my view, and drop a comment if you’d like to share your thoughts.
Good luck!
GOLD: market at a crossroads after the impulseOn the 1H chart, gold remains in an uptrend channel, but after testing the 3545–3550 zone, a corrective pullback is possible. The red lines represent a projected head-and-shoulders scenario, but the pattern is not yet confirmed - it remains only a forecast. Key levels to watch: 3510 as initial support and 3480 as a deeper target if price breaks the channel to the downside. As long as price holds above, the broader trend remains bullish.
From a fundamental perspective , weak ADP employment data provided short-term support, yet the market reaction was muted since dovish Fed expectations are already priced in. Stronger dollar data or rising Treasury yields could put renewed pressure on gold. Fed commentary in the coming days will be crucial for market direction.
Tactical plan: monitor the 3545–3550 zone where sellers may step in. A confirmed break below 3510 opens the way to 3480, but without a completed head-and-shoulders, the move remains speculative. Gold is notorious for punishing premature shorts, so caution is warranted.
Weekly Analysis on GOLDFor next week i will be looking for both opportunities for selling and buying since the price has been so bullish for the past 3 weeks. And based on how the candles are forming right now its showing a possible bearish retracement so the price can continue to push further bullish.
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Bearish after Break Entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸Bearish after Break - 3536
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
High-Level Consolidation: A Playground for Both Bulls and BearsToday, I clearly predicted that "cyclical patterns suggest a 600-pips drop in gold." Gold surged to around 3675 before retreating, reaching a low of around 3626, a fluctuation of 490 pips. It was very close to my expectation, so according to my trading model, I won a big victory in long and short trading today!
Day Trading Results:
1. First, we shorted gold near 3658 and closed the trade at TP: 3638, for a profit of 200 pips.
2. We shorted gold twice at 3655-3656, closing the positions manually at 3647 and 3645, respectively, for a total profit of 190 pips.
3. We shorted gold in batches near 3667 and 3673, closing the trade at TP: 3650, for a total profit of 400 pips.
4. We longed gold in batches near 3632 and 3628, closing the trade at TP: 3642, for a total profit of 240 pips.
Thus, today's total profit on both long and short trades was 1030 pips. I am very satisfied with today's trading model and results.
As for my view on the gold market in the future, I believe that the current gold market is still in an environment of interest rate cut expectations, and the macroeconomic background still has a significant supporting effect on gold. The current bullish trend of gold has not changed, and short-term fluctuations will not affect the overall direction. Therefore, before the interest rate cut is implemented (the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on September 17), gold will still maintain an upward structure.
Judging from the candlestick chart, as long as gold remains above 3600, gold will remain in a bullish structure and maintain an overall upward trend. Although gold began to retreat after touching around 3675, and the bullish momentum no longer seems strong, I believe that gold has limited room for retreat in the short term. Even if the bulls no longer recover their previous strong momentum, gold is expected to maintain a high-level volatile trend, with the short-term support below at 3630-3620. If it is difficult for gold to fall below this area in the short term, gold may still hit the 3670-3680 area during the rebound.
Therefore, in the next short-term trading, if gold first retreats to the 3630-3620 area, we can consider trying to go long on gold, first looking at the 3650-3660 target area;If gold touches the 3670-3680 area again during the rebound, we can still try to short gold again, and the retracement target will first look at the 3655-3645 area.
Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Report📊 Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Report
🔹 Fundamental Outlook
Gold remains supported by macroeconomic uncertainty and central bank policies. With global inflation pressures stabilizing but geopolitical tensions persisting, institutional demand for gold as a hedge is intact. The US dollar’s fluctuations and interest rate expectations continue to influence short-term moves, but central banks’ ongoing gold accumulation provides strong long-term demand. Investor sentiment leans toward risk-hedging assets, keeping gold fundamentally supported.
🔹 Technical Structure
This week’s chart shows that gold has recently completed a downward corrective phase and executed a clear breakout from its descending channel. The breakout has been followed by strong bullish momentum, suggesting renewed institutional buying interest.
The market is now showing a healthy impulsive leg upward, with higher highs and higher lows forming. After this strong move, short-term price action indicates a potential cooling-off period—a common consolidation stage before continuation.
Volume flow reflects increasing participation during the breakout, confirming strength in the move. The broader price structure remains trend-reversal aligned, favoring further upside if momentum sustains.
3615-3620 Buy! SL 3610 TP 3660!Yesterday, I clearly told everyone that, based on technical analysis of the one-hour chart, gold is bound to fall to 3620 unless there's any news or data impacting it! The low has already reached around 3622, but it hasn't fallen below 3620 yet! This is because it's a strong support level! The one-hour chart shows that gold has perfectly corrected from the top of the M-shaped pattern! Therefore, today's key support level is 3620! If 3620 doesn't break, you can buy gold near 3620! Set your stop-loss around 3618!
Let me tell you! All support and resistance levels require at least three rounds of repeated adjustments, tests, and accumulation before they can be broken!
So, today's trade is simple! As long as it doesn't fall below 3620, buy gold near 3620! If the price clearly falls below 3620 and doesn't rebound, set your stop-loss around 3620 and sell gold! ✔️✔️✔️
If you'd like to follow my latest updates, please contact me.
3615-3620 Buy!
SL 3610
TP 3660!
GOLD IS OVERPRICED! TIME TO EASE THE BUY MOMENTUM!Gold is long overbought as we’ve been seeing a strong bullish performance since November 2022 till date without significant correction so far. Right now I believe investors are looking to take their profit so far which will lead to market making some corrective move at-least to the area of 3272.00 before market can pick up again. So far, we’ve had 2 successful bullish wave so I believe before the market will make the 3rd impulse move. We’re going to see some short-term correction. Therefore, we’re already positioned in lower timeframe to rise this trend that’s about to develop in lower timeframe.
XAUUSD: Buy to Win?Hello everyone, what’s your view on OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Looking at the H1 chart, the price action continues to tell a compelling bullish story. Each interaction with key levels has sparked notable moves in line with the trend.
Most recently, the reaction at a strong support zone showed a clear rejection. This could be an important clue, suggesting that buyers are still present and defending the uptrend.
This is just my personal observation, not financial advice. Always double-check your setups and manage risk responsibly.
XAUUSD After PPI news...Here is the analysis of XAUUSD (gold against the US dollar) following the release of the latest US PPI data, based on current market data and charts :
Technical XAUUSD (1 Hour)
Last price: $3,646.13
Daily range:
Open: $3,642.83
High: $3,647.21
Low: $3,641.81
Stochastic: 45.73 → starting to rise, potential bullish signal
RSI: 52.71 → neutral, but leaning upwards
The chart shows light consolidation at the resistance area of $3,647, with potential breakout if momentum strengthens.
Fundamental: Impact of PPI
US PPI falls by 0.1%, surprising the market which expected an increase.
This decline reinforces expectations for interest rate cuts by The Fed, as producer inflation weakens.
The US dollar is likely to weaken, providing additional support for gold prices.
Geopolitical tensions and safe haven demand also support XAUUSD prices.
Potential Strategy
1. Bullish Breakout
Entry: Buy if the price breaks and closes above $3,647
Target: $3,670 – $3,700
Stop Loss: Below $3,640
2. Rejection Bearish
Entry: Sell if a reversal candle appears in the area of $3,647
Target: $3,625 – $3,600
Stop Loss: Above $3,650
Gold | 30min Head and Shoulders | GTradingMethodHello Traders!
There is a potential head and shoulders in the making.
🧐 Market Overview:
One of the key indicators I watch when trading double tops is negative RSI divergence. On the Gold chart, price has been printing higher highs while RSI has been putting in lower highs — a classic sign of weakening buying momentum.
It’s important to note: negative RSI divergence does not guarantee a correction. It’s simply one element within our robust trading system that helps us build higher-probability setups.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 3.5
Entry: 3655.1
Stop Loss: 3664.7
Take Profit 1 (50%): 3624
Take Profit 2 (50%): 3614
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
Always remember — divergence is a signal, not a certainty. Use it in confluence with structure, patterns, and risk management for the best results.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts — do you think this head and shoulders will play out, or is Gold still too strong?
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
Bullish vs Bearish OB – What You Must Know👋 Hey traders, great to see you again!
Today, I want to remind you of a very important concept: Order Block (OB).
It may sound complicated, but it’s actually simple: an OB is the last candle before the market makes a strong move – the footprint left by big money.
There are two main types of OB:
Bullish OB: the last red candle before price shoots up 🚀
Bearish OB: the last green candle before price drops hard 📉
👉 Practical use: When price returns to an OB zone, that’s often the best place to enter a trade in line with Smart Money, with higher win probability.
⚠️ Remember: OBs are not the “holy grail.” But when combined with support–resistance, trend analysis, and solid risk management, they become one of the most powerful weapons in trading.