November 20 | Spot Gold Technical Analysis (European and AmericaNovember 20 | Spot Gold Technical Analysis (European and American Sessions)
📉 The Fed meeting minutes released early this morning were arguably the most divisive in recent years:
"Many" members opposed a December rate cut, fearing "deep-rooted" inflation;
"Most" members warned that a rate cut could be misinterpreted as abandoning the fight against inflation;
Only "a few" members supported a rate cut, clearly a minority;
The previous vote saw a rare 10-2 split, indicating internal strife!
💸 The market reacted immediately to the minutes:
The US dollar index surged 0.59% in a single day, breaking through the 100 mark;
US Treasury yields rose in tandem;
Gold fell sharply, its zero-interest asset status exposing its weakness.
😱 Even more troublesome is—a data vacuum has emerged!
Due to the government shutdown:
The October unemployment rate is permanently missing;
The October and November non-farm payrolls data will be combined and released on December 16th;
The Fed's December policy meeting will be held on December 9-10!
This means the Fed will be deciding its interest rate path in a "blind" manner.
🕶️ Powell has previously stated that "a rate cut is not a done deal." With zero data, it's difficult for the Fed to be dovish.
🗣️ Trump has again attacked, saying he "really wants to fire Powell."
But this time, the Fed seems determined to stand firm, with hawkish voices prevailing.
📊 Tonight's focus: The long-awaited September non-farm payrolls. The market expects only 50,000 new jobs. Even if the data is weak, it will be difficult to reverse the expectation of no rate cut in December. Unless there is a "super dovish" report, gold will struggle to gain sustained momentum.
⚔️ Technical Analysis:
The daily chart shows a "gravestone doji" pattern, with resistance at the 4135/4150 area.
Watch the 4040 Bollinger Middle Band support and the psychological level of 4000.
If 4000 is broken, consider shorting.
If 4100 is recovered, the next target is the 4220/4250 area.
🧭 1-Hour Chart:
Gold prices are in a downward channel, and momentum is bearish after breaking below 4080.
MACD/KDJ indicators are also bearish.
🎯 Trading Strategy Recommendations:
Long positions can be initiated in batches around the 4005/4000 area, with a stop-loss at 3988.
Short positions can be initiated around the 4085/4106 area, with a stop-loss at 4113.
💡 Summary: The Fed's "hawkish awakening" is shaking the foundations of gold's bull market—low interest rates + strong safe-haven demand. Gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and a real bullish opportunity may not arrive until the first quarter of next year.
🚀 Let's monitor the market together on Non-Farm Payrolls night! Strategies will be updated in real time, so please stay tuned!
