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GOLD: BULLS ABOUT TO MAKE AN IMPULSE!Hello traders, Here's my point of view about CAPITALCOM:GOLD TECHNICALLY: DOLG remains very bullish, We manage to make deep retracements back into those daily GAPS. FUNDAMENTALLY END OF THE YEAR BULL RUN & ALL THE OTHER FACTORS THAT I'VE BEEN CALLING. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! MAKE SURE TO STAY STRICT WITH YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AIRFOREXONE_
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | A bearish structure has formed...LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | A bearish structure has formed, waiting for confirmation signals in the European session Overall, gold is in a corrective phase after the previous upward move. On H1, a clear Dow bearish structure (lower highs, lower lows) has formed, but the support area around 4,030 and the Fibonacci cluster below are still potential zones for a reversal buying force. Today's European session will be crucial to confirm: whether to continue a deep decline or bounce back according to the head and shoulders pattern forming on H4. Macro – Fundamental Brief The October Fed meeting minutes show a strong internal division: One group opposes rate cuts, wanting to maintain the current level. The other group supports cuts, even proposing further reductions in the December meeting. This lack of consensus reflects a high degree of monetary policy uncertainty, keeping defensive capital flows interested in gold. In the long term, gold only surges when confidence in the financial system weakens – the peak gold price is not a sign of prosperity, but a warning signal. Technical Analysis – H1 (trendline, Fibonacci, liquidity) The price is fluctuating below the short-term descending trendline, confirming the bearish phase is still in effect. The 4,082–4,090 zone is an “important liquidity zone” – where the price has reacted multiple times, currently acting as near resistance. The 4,029–4,031 cluster is crucial support: Coincides with technical support area + Fibonacci retracement level. Start of a large FVG running down to the 3,985 zone (Fibo 1.618 + psychological support). Above, the 4,129–4,130 zone is strong resistance (strong resistance on the chart); if the price surpasses and holds above this area, the Dow bearish structure will weaken significantly. Trading Scenario Reference BUY Scenario – buy at support / Fibonacci zone Logic: Price holds above support – Fibonacci, bottom-fishing capital appears. Entry BUY: 4,029–4,031 SL: 4,022 TP: 4,040 → 4,065 → 4,090 → 4,120 Only prioritize when the price reacts well at 4,029–4,031 (wick or clear reversal candle appears on M15–H1). If H1 closes below 4,022, this BUY scenario should be canceled. SELL Scenario – follow the current bearish structure (prioritize when trendline is not broken) Logic: Price retraces to retest resistance + descending trendline and is rejected. Entry SELL: 4,098–4,100 SL: 4,105 TP: 4,088 → 4,070 → 4,035 → 4,000–3,985 Only enter when the price hits the 4,098–4,100 zone and a clear rejection signal appears (pin bar/bearish engulfing). If H1 closes above 4,105 and breaks the trendline, stop all sell orders and reassess the structure. Notable Price Zones for Scalping 4,082 – 4,060 – 3,985 – 4,129 These zones can be used for short-term scalping based on price reactions, but reduce volume and close quickly. Important Note If the price is confirmed to close stably above the descending trendline and holds above the 4,090–4,100 zone, the priority will gradually shift to BUY setups, as a head and shoulders pattern (bullish reversal) is forming on H4. Conversely, if the 4,029–4,022 support is decisively broken, gold is likely to continue falling towards the FVG and Fibonacci 1.618 zone around 3,985. Which scenario are you leaning towards for gold today – retrace up to sell further or hold the bottom to bounce back? Leave a comment below the post and follow the LiamTrading channel for daily XAUUSD updates on TradingView.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
I will continue to short gold. Are you ready?Gold prices rebounded slightly after falling below the $4,000 mark. This downward trend was largely in line with previous predictions, and the target price of $4,000 has been reached as expected. Subsequent weak initial jobless claims data triggered a significant shift in market sentiment, stabilizing and pushing gold prices higher. This rally effectively alleviated the previous continuous decline, allowing prices to re-enter a range-bound trading pattern. Although bulls have exerted some strength in the short term, the overall market remains dominated by bears. The key support zone is currently between $3,990 and $4,000, providing both technical and psychological support. Resistance is concentrated between $4,100 and $4,090, a level that has faced resistance multiple times previously. Based on the current market situation, it is recommended to continue the trading strategy established at the beginning of the week, establishing short positions in batches within the $4,080 to $4,105 range. The strategy will be evaluated and adjusted in a timely manner based on macroeconomic data and market dynamics; any significant adjustments will be announced separately. The above are my personal thoughts! If this is helpful to you or if you share the same ideas, please like and follow to show your support! All strategies have a limited lifespan. While referring to them, it's also important to closely monitor market changes. I will respond flexibly based on actual market fluctuations, and I will provide specific updates in the channel!
TVC:GOLDShort
by Market_Trading_Guide
Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | November 18-19✅ From the 4-hour chart, gold remains in an overall bearish correction structure. MA5 and MA10 have formed a bearish crossover and continue to suppress the candlesticks, indicating that the short-term rebound is limited. MA20 is located near 4097, acting as significant resistance. As long as the price fails to stabilize above this level, the bearish structure will not change. The Bollinger Bands show a downward opening, reflecting a weak trend. Price previously broke below the lower band (around 3980) and although it has since rebounded, it still remains below the middle band. Gold has repeatedly tested the 3997–4000 support zone and formed brief rebounds, but the strength is weak — this is still technical correction rather than a trend reversal. ✅ On the 1-hour chart, gold shows a clear short-term rebound correction. Price has broken above MA5 and MA10 and is holding above the short-term moving averages, indicating strengthening rebound momentum. The upper resistance comes from the Bollinger upper band at 4075–4078, an area where gold has repeatedly been rejected. MA20 (around 4036–4040) has shifted from resistance to short-term support. As long as this level holds, the 1-hour structure still has room to extend the rebound. Long lower wicks and concentrated trading around 4050–4060 suggest that buyers are trying to establish a short-term base. However, the short-term rebound has not changed the bigger bearish structure. If gold fails to break through 4075–4080, the rebound may end and the price could return to its bearish rhythm. 🔴 Resistance Levels: 4075–4080 / 4100–4108 / 4150 🟢 Support Levels: 4036–4040 / 4000–3997 / 3953 ✅ Trading Strategy Reference 🔰 Strategy 1 — Look for short positions near resistance (trend-following): If gold rebounds to 4075–4080 and shows rejection: Consider taking light short positions Stop Loss: above 4088 Targets: 4050 → 4035 → 4000 👉 This zone combines multiple moving-average resistance and the Bollinger upper band, making it a high-probability area for trend-following shorts. 🔰 Strategy 2 — Short-term long positions from support (countertrend, light positions): If gold pulls back to 4035–4040 and stabilizes: Consider a short-term long position Stop Loss: below 4030 Targets: 4060 → 4075 👉 This is only a corrective rebound trade — not suitable for large positions. 🔰 Strategy 3 — If gold breaks below 4000, downside may accelerate: A break below 3997–4000 could trigger a stronger sell-off, with targets toward:3953 → 3920 ✅ Summary Gold remains in a bearish, downward-dominated structure, and the current rebound is still a weak correction. As long as the price remains suppressed below 4080–4100, the bearish trend remains intact.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldTradingPro
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold on a downward trend, hitting...💛 LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold on a downward trend, hitting strong support around 4005 🎯 Gold has plunged from its peak, currently “visiting” the 4005–3990 zone, where trendline + POC/OB + large liquidity converge. This is a zone with potential for a technical rebound, but the short-term trend remains bearish, so all BUY orders need clear confirmation. 🔍 Fundamental Analysis Goldman Sachs forecasts that during 2025–2026, central banks will purchase an average of ~80 tons of gold per month, a significant driver that could propel gold towards $4,900/oz by the end of 2026. This keeps the long-term trend for gold bullish, but in the short term, deep corrections like the current one are normal to “shake out” positions before big money returns. 📊 Technical Analysis Current trend: H1 is still in a short-term downtrend phase (lower high – lower low), with prices below the 4080–4100 resistance zone and the nearest descending trendline. Main support zones: 4005–3990: intersection of long-term ascending trendline, POC – OB, old VAH/VAL zone → critical support, potential for bottom-fishing buying force. 3975–3977: deeper support, coinciding with liquidity zone & recent bottom. Key resistance zones: 4098–4100: confluence of resistance + trendline test → prime zone to watch for SELL retracement. Above is the cluster 4011 – 4053 – 4077 – 4098–4100 acting as “steps” for scalping orders. Volume Profile: Heavy trading volume around the 4000–4020 zone → prices tend to revisit this area multiple times before leaving. 🎯 Suggested Trading Scenarios SELL – following the downtrend (priority) Entry: 4098–4100 SL: 4105 TP: 4082 → 4060 → 4035 → 4012 Price retraces to resistance + descending trendline. Only activate when M15–H1 shows clear rejection candles (pin bar/bearish engulfing) around 4098–4100. BUY – catching the rebound at strong support Entry: 3975–3977 SL: 3970 TP: 3995 → 4025 → 4050 → 4080 Confluence support zone at channel bottom + POC/OB + liquidity. Only BUY with strong rejection or clear reversal pattern (M15–H1). ⚠️ Price zones to watch for scalping 4011 – 4053 – 4077 – 3939 These zones are suitable for short scalps, prioritizing the main trend (currently bearish), quick exits – do not hold positions too long. 🧠 Risks & Invalidation H1 closes above 4105 → reduces SELL priority, wait for new structure. H1 closes below 3970 → unfavorable structure for BUY side, potential for further decline to lower zones. Are you watching to BUY or SELL gold in this zone? 👉 Comment your perspective & Follow LiamTrading channel for daily XAUUSD plans.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
Gold in Buy═════════════════════════════════════════════════ 🏆 GOLD ANALYSIS - MONDAY, NOV 17, 2025 SATHAYAM_ACADEMY Daily Update ⏰ SESSION: 9:00 AM - 4:30 PM IST 📊 MARKET RECAP: ✅ Morning: Strong SELL signal (-25 pips) Result: +$225 profit locked in! ❌ Midday: Sideways trap zone (avoid) Action: Protected capital + waited ═════════════════════════════════════════════════ 🎯 MARKET STRUCTURE ANALYSIS: Historical Swing Low: 4,032.230 ├─ +78 point target (swing OB): 4,111.185 ✅ ├─ +50 point target (discount OB): 4,099.760 ✅ ├─ -25 point correction: 4,070.935 ✅ Current Price: 4,083.270 (trap zone) #Trading #Gold #XAUUSD #Sathayam_Academy #SmartMoney #StructureTrading #Discipline ═════════════════════════════════════════════════ 📈 THREE-TIER ENTRY STRATEGY: TIER 1 - OVERNIGHT TRADE (Set & Forget): ├─ Entry: BUY LIMIT 4,041 ├─ SL: 4,028 (13 pip stop) ├─ Target: 4,111.185 (+70 pips!) ├─ Ratio: 1:5.4 (EXCELLENT!) ├─ Type: Swing structure buy ├─ Timeframe: Overnight/this week └─ Status: Passive order ⏳ TIER 2 - TODAY'S PRIMARY (London Open): IF +50 target 4,099.760 hits FIRST: ├─ Entry: BUY LIMIT 4,057-4,054 ├─ SL: 4,048 (6-9 pip stop) ├─ Target: 4,100-4,120 ├─ Ratio: 1:3+ (GOOD!) ├─ Type: Premium zone buy ├─ Confirmation: +50 point level confirmed └─ Action: ENTER IMMEDIATELY ✅ TIER 3 - ALTERNATIVE (If reversal first): IF -25 target 4,070.935 hits BEFORE +50: ├─ Entry: SELL LIMIT 4,085-4,080 ├─ SL: 4,097 (12-17 pip stop) ├─ Target: 4,050-4,040 ├─ Ratio: 1:2.5+ (GOOD!) ├─ Type: Correction sell ├─ Confirmation: -25 point level confirmed └─ Action: SELL CORRECTION ✅ ═════════════════════════════════════════════════ 📊 EXECUTION LOGIC: ⏰ RIGHT NOW (4:22 PM): ├─ TIER 1: Place BUY LIMIT 4,041 (overnight) ├─ MONITOR: Price action for next 30 mins └─ WAIT: London open direction signal 🎯 WHEN LONDON OPENS (4:30 PM+): ├─ IF price breaks UP to +50 zone │ └─ TIER 2: Place BUY 4,057-4,054 ├─ IF price drops to -25 zone │ └─ TIER 3: Place SELL 4,085-4,080 └─ IF sideways continues └─ CLOSE DAY: Protect +$225 profit ═════════════════════════════════════════════════ 💡 KEY RULES: ✅ TIER 1 active 24/7 (overnight hold) ✅ TIER 2 enters IF +50 confirms first ✅ TIER 3 enters IF -25 confirms first ✅ NEVER both TIER 2 & 3 at same time ✅ Choose direction based on first signal ✅ Capital protection ALWAYS first ═════════════════════════════════════════════════ 📈 TODAY'S LESSON: 1. Multiple OB levels = Multiple opportunities 2. Swing OB (+78) = Long-term hold potential 3. Discount OB (+50) = Higher probability today 4. Correction level (-25) = Safety exit/reversal 5. Set & forget orders = Passive income mindset ═════════════════════════════════════════════════ 🏆 TODAY'S RESULTS: Morning Trade: +$225 ✅ Discipline: 100% ✅ Capital Protected: YES ✅ Framework Validated: YES ✅ Community Learning: MAXIMUM ✅ ═════════════════════════════════════════════════ Remember: "Patience = Profit" "Structure = Edge" "Discipline = Freedom" Stay disciplined. Stay profitable. 💪💙 ═════════════════════════════════════════════════
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SATHAYAM_ACADEMY
Market Delivering South & Eyes on the Discount ZonePrice tapped into the OG Premium Zone and instantly rejected after printing a Higher High. That’s classic premium distribution not a clean continuation. Once we slipped back under the OG Confirmation Level, the tone shifted straight to sell side pressure 🚨📉 With the OG SHORT signal in play, price continues to deliver toward the OG Discount Zone the primary liquidity target for now. As long as we trade below the OG Confirmation Level, the bearish narrative stays intact 🔻 When price reaches the OG Discount Zone, that’s the decision point. I’m not forcing anything. I’ll wait for a reaction and proper confirmation before committing. If we get a sharp rejection and an OG flip, I’ll start eyeing long setups with upside potential toward the 4,200 region 📈🎯 📰 Macro & Fundamentals High impact USD data inflation prints, PMI, FOMC, and headline driven speeches can inject volatility and push price beyond expected levels. During heavy news, I stay flat, wait for real direction, and only execute once structure lines up with the OG signals.🧠⚖️
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by iamtradingdon
Gold is compressed; next week’s US data will pick a side.Gold is being compressed, the upcoming US data week will decide which side gets squeezed. Good evening everyone, Brian here with a view on XAUUSD on the H2 and H4 frames for the upcoming week. Fundamental Analysis – a "tailor-made" week for the USD Next week is packed with US data, meaning gold will react more to numbers than narratives: Core PPI, PPI, and Retail Sales Initial Unemployment Claims Prelim GDP q/q Core PCE Price Index m/m – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge If inflation and growth come out weak, the market will lean more towards the slow growth / easing policy narrative. This usually pressures the USD and supports gold, especially as real yields gradually decline. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data will strengthen the USD, raise yields, and create short-term downward pressure on gold. In such a context, price and liquidity areas around news releases will be more important than usual – typically, fading emotional spikes back to structural areas is safer than chasing the initial move. Technical Analysis – triangle, FVG, and key support areas On the H4 frame, gold is still trading within a broad triangle structure. The previous decline has stalled, with prices continuously reacting at the upward support line and around 4,000, but there has yet to be a clear breakout from the pattern. When zooming into H1–H2: The price has broken a short-term downtrend line and closed strongly above – this is an early signal that selling pressure in this move is weakening. The nearest support is around 4050–4040, deeper is the support band 4000–3998 (marked on the chart as important support). As long as it holds above 4,000, the structure remains positive. Above, we have a very important confluence area around 4135–4160 including: Fibo 0.382 of the most recent main decline An old fair value gap (FVG) and resistance block Chart note: "Gold will go strong if it passes this price range" – aligns with my view: if the price accepts above this area, the potential for a stronger upward move will open up. Around 4100 is an area prone to a "large liquidity response" – expect strong profit-taking and position restructuring if the price returns to this area. Currently, I see the market as accumulating above 4,000 in a corrective pattern, with a slight upward bias as long as 4,000 is maintained. Key Price Areas Resistance: 4100 – first liquidity area 4135–4160 – Fibo 0.382 + FVG + strong resistance Support: 4050–4040 – nearest intraday support 4000–3998 – large frame support; if broken, it will change the picture 3940 area – stronger support if 4k is breached Trading Scenarios for Next Week (All are for reference only, not investment advice.) Scenario 1 – Buy when the price adjusts above 4,000 (foundation for the next upward wave) Idea: follow the forming upward bias as the price still respects the triangle support and the 4,000 mark. Entry area: 4050–4040 or any clean retest of the broken downtrend line on smaller frames Area for cautious position addition: 4025–4005 if there is a deep sweep to 4,000 with a strong rebound reaction Stop Loss: below 3990–3988 depending on risk appetite Targets: First: 4100 (liquidity area) Second: 4135–4140 (lower edge of FVG/resistance) Extended: 4155–4160 if a strong continuation move appears Signals to wait for: wick rejection from support, bullish engulfing candle, or clear intraday structural phase shift to a series of higher highs and lows. Scenario 2 – Break & Retest Long above 4135–4140 If the price does not give a deep adjustment but runs straight up: Condition: H2/H4 candle closes clearly above 4135–4140 and holds when retesting Entry: when the price pulls back in a controlled manner to the 4135–4140 area, turning this area from resistance to support SL: below 4120 TP: 4180 → 4200+ depending on momentum strength This is the "gold goes strong" scenario as noted on the chart – viewing the FVG/0.382 area as a launchpad for a larger impulse wave. Scenario 3 – Bearish scenario if 4,000 is broken If fundamentals and cash flow turn against gold, decisively pushing the price below 4,000, the bullish view needs to be set aside. Condition: daily candle closes clearly below 4000–3998 Plan: wait for the price to retrace up to retest 4000–4020 from below Entry: short when rejection signals appear at that retest area TP: 3960 → 3940, then reassess the structure When below 4,000, the triangle will break down, and the market is likely to hunt deeper liquidity areas before potentially forming a new medium-term upward wave. In summary: as long as 4,000 holds, I prioritize the buy scenario on adjustments, respecting the upward potential to 4135–4160 and beyond. If there is a decisive break below 4,000, the picture will reverse – then retracements up will be opportunities to look for shorts. Trade according to what the structure shows, not what I hope for. Manage risk tightly around next week's data points and let the major price areas "do the heavy lifting." If this perspective helps you plan better, don't forget to follow Brian for weekly gold analysis and share your scenarios in the comments to compare.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
Gold 4H – Liquidity Plays Ahead of Fed Minutes & PMI Data🥇 XAUUSD – Weekly Smart Money Outlook | by Ryan_TitanTrader 📈 Market Context Gold continues to trade inside a controlled 4H consolidation as markets brace for a highly event-driven week: U.S. PMI releases, updated Fed guidance, and renewed debates over the timing of future rate cuts. Recent data has shown mixed momentum — softer employment trends but steady business activity — keeping the dollar volatile and gold reactive near mid-range liquidity. Institutional flows remain cautious, reducing aggressive positioning ahead of major macro catalysts. This environment typically leads to engineered sweeps on both sides of the range as Smart Money hunts liquidity before revealing direction. Expect short-term volatility spikes, especially around U.S. session opens and PMI releases. 🔎 Technical Analysis (4H / SMC View) • Price is navigating a minor bearish structure, forming lower highs while protecting deeper liquidity beneath 4020. • The recent 4H BOS + corrective pullback suggests the market may generate a liquidity grab toward the discount zone before any strong bullish leg develops. • A Premium Sell Zone at 4225–4227 sits above resting liquidity, making it an ideal region for stop hunts and short-term distribution. • The Discount Buy Zone at 4010–4008 aligns with structural reaction points, unmitigated demand, and a liquidity shelf — ideal for accumulation. • Mid-range liquidity around 4060–4080 may be swept before the market chooses a larger weekly direction. 🟢 Buy Zone: 4010–4008 SL: 4000 TP targets: 4085 → 4120 → 4175 → 4220 Rationale: • Deep discount zone beneath 4H liquidity • Confluence of demand + structural mitigation • High probability of engineered sweep before bullish expansion 🔴 Sell Zone: 4225–4227 SL: 4235 TP targets: 4175 → 4120 → 4060 → 4015 Rationale: • Premium supply above equal-high liquidity • Favors stop hunt + distribution before correction • Aligns with previous 4H rejection and imbalance fill ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Wait for M15 ChoCH / BOS inside each zone before entering — avoid blind entries. • Expect spreads and liquidity manipulation around news: US PMI, Fed speeches, and data surprises. • Avoid trading 10–20 minutes before high-impact events. • Scale partial profits at each structural target to secure gains and let runners develop. ✅ Summary Gold remains trapped in a structured 4H range where Smart Money is likely to sweep one side before delivering a decisive expansion. Discounted buys at 4010–4008 and premium sells at 4225–4227 remain the highest-probability weekly setups. Stay patient, respect liquidity, and follow confirmation. 🔔 FOLLOW @Ryan_TitanTrader for more weekly SMC setups 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 21/11/20251. Momentum D1: The D1 momentum is contracting, signaling a potential reversal. If today’s candle confirms this, it will further support the continuation of wave Y. H4: H4 momentum has turned downward, so the expectation for today remains bearish movement. H1: H1 momentum is preparing to turn upward, suggesting a small corrective bounce. However, in the current context, price is likely to remain sideways within the 4046 – 4081 range. ________________________________________ 2. Wave Structure D1 – Higher timeframe With D1 momentum preparing to turn down, the continuation of wave Y is reinforced. But since momentum is near the oversold zone, two potential scenarios may unfold: 1️⃣ Strong decline: A sharp drop may break 3888, opening the way toward deeper targets such as 3746. 2️⃣ Weak decline – Compression: Price may continue down but fail to break 3888. Once momentum turns upward again, a new trend could form. ________________________________________ H4 – Pattern outlook The H4 structure remains unclear—price may still be in wave (3) or wave (2). • If it is wave (3), strong bearish candles or a test of 4001 should appear. • If price keeps moving sideways without breaking 4001 until H4 momentum reaches oversold, the current move is likely wave B of an ABC correction inside wave 2. Based on the current depth of wave B, wave C is estimated to target 4175. ________________________________________ H1 – Lower timeframe Wave 2 (green) is taking longer than ideal, but not enough to invalidate the current labeling. The 4081 resistance is very strong and serves as our sell zone. Below, the 4020 support is equally important: • A sharp decline with H1 closing below 4020 may trigger a larger bearish continuation. • Typically, price reacts with a bounce when it first touches this area. ________________________________________ 3. Trade Plan Sell Zone: 4073 – 4075 SL: 4093 TP1: 4020 TP2: 3958 TP3: 3885
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
Gold price analysis November 20Gold continues to show a solid reaction at the main trendline, indicating that the bullish structure is still maintained by organized buying. The market's continued respect for this support line is an important signal, keeping the possibility of extending the trend to the 4200 zone high. However, it is important to note: a H4 candle closing below the trendline will be the first sign confirming the weakening of the bullish momentum. At that time, the balance of forces will tilt towards the sellers and the price may correct deeply to the 3936 zone - the confluence of the next strong support. Recommended strategy: Activate BUY when the market shows a price rejection signal at 4041. Profit target: 4200. Risk management: H4 closes below 4041 → switch to SELL strategy, aiming at 3936.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
FOMC Post-News Entry Strategy and Trading PlanFOMC Post-News Entry Strategy (1:03 AM – 1:10 AM) High-Accuracy Institutional Model --- ⭐ Scenario 1: Gold Sweeps 4,100–4,120 and Then Drops This is the highest-probability scenario because the higher-timeframe structure is bearish. Sell Entry Rules 1. The news candle must sweep above 4,100 or 4,120, taking liquidity. 2. A strong bearish engulfing candle must immediately appear, rejecting the sweep. 3. A clear CHoCH (Change of Character) to the downside must form on the 1m or 5m timeframe. Sell Entry Trigger Enter after the CHoCH retest near 4,100. Stop Loss 4,130 Take Profit Levels TP1: 4,060 TP2: 4,040 TP3: 3,998 This is the safest and highest-probability sell setup for FOMC. --- ⭐ Scenario 2: Gold Sweeps 4,060–4,040 and Then Rallies This scenario happens if the FOMC outcome is dovish. Buy Entry Rules 1. The news candle must sweep below 4,060 or 4,040 with a strong wick. 2. A large bullish engulfing candle must appear immediately after the sweep. 3. A confirmed CHoCH to the upside must form on the 1m or 5m timeframe. Buy Entry Trigger Enter after the CHoCH retest near 4,060. Stop Loss 4,030 Take Profit Levels TP1: 4,100 TP2: 4,120 TP3: 4,150
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FMFinancialAdvisor
GOLD BOUNCES FROM $4,000 - FOMC MINUTES TODAY!💰 GOLD BOUNCES FROM $4,000 - FOMC MINUTES TODAY! 📈 Current Price: $4,085 - $4,090 🟢 Opening Price: $4,079 Yesterday's Close: $4,066 (+0.56%) Today's Performance: +0.56% ✅ Status: 🟢 RECOVERY MODE - CRITICAL DAY 🚨 MAJOR EVENT TODAY - FOMC MINUTES! ⚡ THE $4,000 SUPPORT HELD! Gold successfully defended the critical psychological level and is now bouncing. But TODAY is the most important day this week! What's Happening: ✅ $4,000 Support HELD - Bulls defended successfully! ✅ Morning Star Pattern Formed - Bullish reversal signal at support ✅ FOMC Minutes TODAY - Will determine next major move ✅ NFP Data Thursday - First post-shutdown jobs report ✅ Risk-Off Sentiment - Safe-haven flows supporting gold ✅ Expected to RISE - Analysts forecast upward movement 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Market Structure: BULLISH RECOVERY 🟢🟢 Gold has bounced off the ascending trendline AND the $4,000 psychological level - a DOUBLE support confluence! Bulls are back in control short-term. Key Development: Bulls managed to hold psychological level of $4,005 and formed Morning Star pattern indicating renewed buying activity Critical Support Levels (Defended!) 🔵 Support 1: $4,050 - $4,060 (Current base - Strong) Support 2: $4,000 - $4,005 (HELD! Psychological + Trendline) Support 3: $3,987 - $4,002 (November open) Support 4: $3,965 (November 6 low) Support 5: $3,930 (Major support) Key Resistance Levels (Recovery targets) 🔴 Resistance 1: $4,096 - $4,100 (KEY - 50-day MA + Descending trendline) Resistance 2: $4,112 - $4,120 (20-day SMA - Strong) Resistance 3: $4,140 - $4,150 (Major barrier) Resistance 4: $4,170 - $4,212 (Previous descending trendline) 📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS RSI (14): 49 (Neutral - Can move either direction) ⚪ MACD: Rising sharply, approaching zero line (Bullish momentum!) 🟢 MFI: Growing - Liquidity inflow into asset ✅ 4H RSI: Bounced up but below 50 (Recovery attempt) ⚡ Moving Averages: Price broke above 100-day MA ✅ Testing 50-day MA at $4,096 🔴 20-day SMA at $4,112 (Resistance) 🔴 Above ascending trendline ✅ VWAP & SMA20: Aligned with market price - Equilibrium between buyers/sellers 🎯 TODAY'S TRADING STRATEGIES SCENARIO 1: BULLISH BREAKOUT 🟢 (60% Probability) On November 20, 2025, price of XAU/USD expected to RISE IF Gold Breaks Above $4,100: Break of descending trendline and 50-day MA around $4,096 could open rally toward $4,212 LONG Setup: Entry: Break and close above $4,100-$4,112 Targets: TP1: $4,140 📍 (+40 pips) TP2: $4,170 📍 (+70 pips) TP3: $4,212 📍 (+112 pips - Previous trendline touch) Stop Loss: $4,065 (Below support) Risk/Reward: Excellent 1:3+ ratio ✅ SCENARIO 2: FALSE BREAKOUT / REJECTION 🔴 (30% Probability) IF Gold Gets Rejected at $4,096-$4,112: Bulls tried but failed - retest of support coming SHORT Setup (Scalp): Entry: Rejection at $4,100-$4,112 (confirmed with bearish candle) Targets: TP1: $4,065 📍 TP2: $4,050 📍 TP3: $4,000 📍 (Retest) Stop Loss: $4,125 (Tight!) ⚠️ WARNING: This is counter-trend - use small positions! SCENARIO 3: FOMC VOLATILITY 📊 (10% Probability) IF FOMC Minutes Cause Whipsaw: Strategy: WAIT for Clear Direction Let the dust settle after FOMC release Trade the REACTION, not the news Entry: After 30-60 minutes of FOMC release Follow the momentum with trend 💎 BEST TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Highly Recommended!) 🎯 WAIT FOR FOMC MINUTES! Don't trade BEFORE the release. Setup A - Breakout Play (Preferred): WAIT for FOMC minutes (Today, US session) IF gold breaks $4,100-$4,112 with volume Entry: $4,105-$4,112 (after confirmation) Target: $4,140 → $4,170 → $4,212 SL: $4,080 Why: Riding institutional momentum Setup B - Dip Buy: IF gold pulls back to $4,050-$4,060 Entry: $4,052-$4,060 (on bounce) Target: $4,100 → $4,120 SL: $4,035 ⚠️ DO NOT TRADE during first 30 min after FOMC release! Wait for clarity! 🌍 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS TODAY'S MAJOR EVENTS 📅 🔥 FOMC MINUTES (US Session - CRITICAL!) This is THE event today. Will show: Fed's thinking on December rate cut Concerns about economy post-shutdown Inflation outlook Market waiting for FOMC Minutes release and speech by Fed member John Williams Thursday: NFP Data (First post-shutdown report) September NFP expected: +50,000 jobs Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (forecast) This could be market-moving! BULLISH FACTORS ⬆️⬆️ ✅ $4,000 Support Held - Technical strength confirmed ✅ Morning Star Pattern - Bullish reversal at support ✅ Risk-Off Sentiment - Stocks falling, gold rising ✅ Softer Treasury Yields - Making gold more attractive ✅ Shutdown Concerns - Economic weakness = gold support ✅ Analysts predict gold may reach $4,456-$4,509 by end November ✅ Central banks targeting 750-900 tonnes purchases for 2025 BEARISH RISKS ⬇️ ⚠️ Hawkish FOMC - If minutes show Fed reluctant to cut rates ⚠️ Strong NFP Thursday - Would reduce rate cut odds ⚠️ Resistance at $4,100-$4,112 - Strong technical barrier ⚠️ December Rate Cut Odds - Only 43% (down from 63%) ⚠️ DXY Still Above 99.50 - Dollar maintaining strength 🔥 MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH What's Different Today: The $4,000 level held perfectly - this is VERY bullish technically. But FOMC minutes could change everything in minutes! Analyst Views: Short-term (Today/Tomorrow): $4,000 held, bulls need acceptance above $4,100 for rally to gather steam. FOMC minutes will determine direction. This Week: Critical - FOMC + NFP data will set tone for rest of November Month End: IF recovery continues → $4,200-$4,300 possible IF rejected at $4,100 → Chop between $4,000-$4,100 💡 PROFESSIONAL GAME PLAN For DAY TRADERS: ⚡ Wait for FOMC! Do NOT trade 1 hour before release Do NOT trade first 30 min after release After dust settles, trade the direction Use tight stops (whipsaws common) For SWING TRADERS: 📊 This is Your Setup! IF $4,100 breaks with FOMC → GO LONG (hold 3-5 days to $4,170+) IF rejected at $4,100 → WAIT for next dip to $4,000 Target: $4,212 (1-2 week hold) For LONG-TERM INVESTORS: 💎 Accumulation Zone $4,000-$4,080 range is BUYING opportunity Long-term targets: $4,500-$5,000 (2026) Strategy: Build position gradually Vision: Multi-month hold 📅 TODAY'S TIMELINE Asian Session (Done): Gold bounced to $4,085-$4,090 ✅ European Session (Now): Consolidation before FOMC US Session: FOMC MINUTES RELEASE 🔥🔥🔥 After FOMC: Big volatility expected - direction determined Tomorrow (Thursday): NFP Data (September) - First post-shutdown This will confirm or reverse today's move 🎬 BOTTOM LINE (TL;DR) Price: $4,085 (Bouncing) Bias: 🟢 BULLISH (IF breaks $4,100) Key Level: $4,100 (Break = Rally | Reject = Chop) Today's Event: FOMC MINUTES (Trade-defining!) Best Action: WAIT for FOMC, then trade the breakout Risk Level: HIGH (Event volatility!) 🔔 THE $4,100 LEVEL - TODAY'S BATTLEGROUND! IF GOLD BREAKS ABOVE $4,100-$4,112: ✅ Bulls win! ✅ Target $4,140 → $4,170 → $4,212 ✅ Possible rally to $4,250+ ✅ GO LONG after confirmation IF GOLD REJECTS AT $4,100: ⚠️ Bulls stall ⚠️ Range between $4,000-$4,100 continues ⚠️ Wait for next setup ⚠️ Don't force trades FOMC DECIDES EVERYTHING! 📊 Dovish = GOLD UP 🚀 📊 Hawkish = GOLD DOWN/SIDEWAYS 📉 📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Trend: 🟢 BULLISH (Short-term recovery active) Momentum: IMPROVING - MACD rising 📈 Support: HOLDING at $4,050-$4,060 ✅ Resistance: TESTING at $4,096-$4,112 🎯 Pattern: Morning Star reversal + Trendline bounce Next Move: Break $4,112 = UP | Reject = CHOP Key Technical: Having bounced off ascending trendline and $4,000, gold broke above 100-day MA and now testing descending trendline/50-day MA confluence ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT - FOMC DAY! ✅ Wait for FOMC - Don't guess the news! ✅ Small Positions - Risk MAX 1% (High volatility!) ✅ Wide Stops - Give trades room (40-50 pips) ✅ Quick Profits - Lock gains on FOMC spikes ✅ No Revenge - If wrong, accept and move on 🎯 SWING TRADE SETUPS Setup A - FOMC Breakout (Recommended): WAIT for FOMC minutes release Entry: IF breaks $4,112 (after FOMC) Target 1: $4,170 (Hold 2-3 days) Target 2: $4,212 (Hold 5-7 days) Target 3: $4,250 (Hold 1-2 weeks) Stop Loss: $4,070 Setup B - Rejection Trade: Entry: IF rejected at $4,100 (after FOMC) Target 1: $4,050 (Hold 1-2 days) Target 2: $4,000 (Hold 2-3 days) Stop Loss: $4,125 🏆 PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY Gold has executed a PERFECT TECHNICAL BOUNCE from the $4,000 psychological level. The formation of a Morning Star candlestick pattern at support is a classic bullish reversal signal. The Setup: Price trading at $4,085.62 as of 19.11.2025 Held $4,000 support perfectly (double bottom with trendline) Now testing critical $4,096-$4,112 resistance zone FOMC minutes today will determine next major move Most Likely Scenarios: Scenario 1 (60%): FOMC shows Fed concerned about economy → Gold breaks $4,112 → Rally to $4,170-$4,212 Scenario 2 (30%): FOMC shows Fed staying hawkish → Gold rejected at $4,100 → Range $4,000-$4,100 continues Scenario 3 (10%): FOMC very dovish → Gold explodes through $4,212 → $4,250+ The Big Picture: $4,000 holding is VERY bullish. This was the make-or-break level and bulls defended it perfectly. If FOMC is dovish or neutral, gold has clear path to $4,200+ 💪 TRADING PSYCHOLOGY TIP THE BOUNCE IS HERE! Yesterday we were at $4,000 and scared. Today we're at $4,085 and hopeful. This is why you MUST have a plan and stick to it. Those who bought at $4,000 yesterday are now profitable. Discipline wins! 🎯 🎓 LESSON: THE MORNING STAR PATTERN What happened at $4,000: Day 1: Long bearish candle (fear) Day 2: Small candle (indecision) Day 3: Long bullish candle (bulls return) This is a Morning Star - one of the most reliable bullish reversal patterns! It shows bears exhausted and bulls taking control. Trading Strategy: When you see this at major support (like $4,000), it's a HIGH probability long setup! 🔮 FORECAST Today: FOMC minutes → Breakout $4,112 OR rejection Tomorrow: NFP data → Confirm today's direction End of Week: $4,140-$4,170 OR back to $4,000 Next Week: Recovery continues to $4,200+ if $4,100 breaks Month End: $4,250-$4,300 (IF bullish scenario plays out) 🚨 FOMC MINUTES - WHAT TO WATCH FOR Dovish Signals (Gold UP 🟢): Concerns about economic weakness Mentions of shutdown impact Opens door to December cut Worries about labor market Hawkish Signals (Gold DOWN/FLAT 🔴): Confidence in economy Inflation still concerning No urgency to cut rates Strong labor market comments Neutral (Gold CHOP ⚪): Data-dependent language Wait-and-see approach No clear direction 📊 SUPPORT/RESISTANCE SUMMARY Strong Support: $4,050, $4,000 (CRITICAL) Weak Support: $4,065, $4,040 Weak Resistance: $4,096, $4,100 Strong Resistance: $4,112, $4,140, $4,170, $4,212 Breakout Level: $4,112 (Game changer!) Breakdown Level: $4,000 (Would be very bearish) ⚠️ FINAL DISCLAIMER Today is a high-impact event day. FOMC minutes can cause extreme volatility and rapid price swings. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Never trade the news blindly - wait for confirmation. Use stop losses religiously. Position sizes should be smaller than normal on event days. False breakouts are common immediately after news. The first move after FOMC is often NOT the real move. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before trading. 📱 CRITICAL DAY AHEAD! 💬 FOMC minutes in few hours! 🔔 HIGH volatility expected ⚡ Trade the reaction, not the prediction! 🙏 Be patient, be disciplined! #Gold #XAUUSD #FOMC #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #NFP #MorningStar #BullishReversal #EventTrading #RiskManagement #FOMCMinutes #MarketAnalysis #DayTrading #SwingTrading
TVC:GOLDLong
by AthensBySahan
Gold Technical Analysis: Three Consecutive Bearish Days Confirm Gold Technical Analysis: Three Consecutive Bearish Days Confirm Short-Term Weakness; Short-Selling Strategy Remains Dominant Market Review: Yesterday, the gold market was generally weak, with prices continuing to decline along the 5-day moving average, showing a clear short-term weakness in its technical pattern. Especially in the early morning hours, gold prices experienced a sharp drop, exacerbating the bearish sentiment, and the daily chart ultimately closed with a medium-sized bearish candlestick with upper and lower shadows. This candlestick pattern reflects the intense struggle between bulls and bears, but ultimately the bears prevailed, pushing prices to a low close. Technical Analysis: Daily Chart: Gold has formed a "three-day bearish" pattern on the daily chart, confirming a short-term weak trend. The moving average system is bearish, and the price is currently under pressure below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with the overall bearish trend remaining unchanged. The market is expected to further test the lower support level on the daily chart. If this key support level is broken, the downside potential may expand. Key Levels: Resistance Levels: 4055 (10-day moving average), 4075, 4095. Support levels: 4005 (yesterday's low), 3976, 3930 (daily chart lower line). Trading Logic: The 10-day moving average (around 4055) has become an important entry point for short positions today. If the price rebounds to this level and encounters resistance, it can be considered a good opportunity to short. If the price breaks below yesterday's low of 4005, the downside target will further point to the 3976 and 3930 areas. Trading Strategy: Short Position Strategy: Entry Area: Short in batches between 4050-4055, with position size controlled at 20%. Stop Loss: 4063 (8 points). Target: 4020-4000, with a further target of 3975 if it breaks down. Long Position Strategy: Entry Area: Long in batches between 3975-3980, with position size controlled at 20%. Stop Loss: 3967 (8 points). Target: 4000-4010, break above to 4020. Risk Warning: Market volatility is unpredictable; strategies should be adjusted flexibly based on actual market conditions. Investors should strictly set stop-loss orders, avoid over-leveraging or holding losing positions, and develop trading plans based on their own risk tolerance. Real-time price levels and detailed strategies can be obtained through internal channels.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by XAUUSD-Elizabeth
XAUUSD LONG TERM NEXT MOVE POSSIBLE ✅ Technical Analysis Breakdown (XAUUSD – 1H Chart) gold chart shows a rising wedge / ascending channel, and price is currently reacting at the mid-range support. You’ve drawn two potential outcomes – continuation upward or bearish breakdown. Let’s analyze both with precision. 📌 1. Current Market Structure Price is inside a large upward channel. It recently rejected from the upper trendline, pulling back toward the mid-channel support. Price is now sitting near the horizontal support zone ~ 4045–4034. This is a reaction zone where the next direction should become clear. 📈 2. Bullish Scenario (Bounce & Rally Toward 4250+) Conditions for upside: Price must break and hold above 4055 (you marked this level). Bullish structure resumes with higher lows. Target moves: 1st target: 4160 2nd target: 4250 3rd target: Retest of the channel top near 4300–4330 Your blue arrow upward matches this exact pathway. Why this can happen: Price still respecting the ascending channel. Mid-channel support is holding. Buyers may step in near support. 📉 3. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown to 3920–3890 Zone) This becomes active only if price breaks below the rising trendline around 4020–4010. Bearish targets: 1st target: 3980 2nd target: 3920–3890 (your green demand zone) This is a strong liquidity pool where buyers previously entered. Your downward arrow correctly points toward this demand zone. Why this can happen: Rising wedge patterns often break down. Momentum is currently weakening. Massive liquidity below 4000. 🎯 4. What Is Most Likely Right Now? Based on the chart: ✔ Price is testing support. ✔ Still inside the bullish channel. ✔ No confirmed breakdown yet. ➡ Bias: Short-term bullish unless 4020 breaks. Once 4020 breaks cleanly → bearish continuation becomes very likely. 🧭 5. Simple Trading Plan (Based on Your Zones) Bullish Setup Buy above: 4055 SL: 4020 TP: 4160 → 4250 → 4320 Bearish Setup Sell after breakdown below: 4020 SL: 4050 TP: 3980 → 3920 → 3890 For More Updates Stay Tuned
OANDA:XAUUSD
by wiqi4u