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Gold price analysis November 20Gold continues to show a solid reaction at the main trendline, indicating that the bullish structure is still maintained by organized buying. The market's continued respect for this support line is an important signal, keeping the possibility of extending the trend to the 4200 zone high. However, it is important to note: a H4 candle closing below the trendline will be the first sign confirming the weakening of the bullish momentum. At that time, the balance of forces will tilt towards the sellers and the price may correct deeply to the 3936 zone - the confluence of the next strong support. Recommended strategy: Activate BUY when the market shows a price rejection signal at 4041. Profit target: 4200. Risk management: H4 closes below 4041 → switch to SELL strategy, aiming at 3936.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
FOMC Post-News Entry Strategy and Trading PlanFOMC Post-News Entry Strategy (1:03 AM – 1:10 AM) High-Accuracy Institutional Model --- ⭐ Scenario 1: Gold Sweeps 4,100–4,120 and Then Drops This is the highest-probability scenario because the higher-timeframe structure is bearish. Sell Entry Rules 1. The news candle must sweep above 4,100 or 4,120, taking liquidity. 2. A strong bearish engulfing candle must immediately appear, rejecting the sweep. 3. A clear CHoCH (Change of Character) to the downside must form on the 1m or 5m timeframe. Sell Entry Trigger Enter after the CHoCH retest near 4,100. Stop Loss 4,130 Take Profit Levels TP1: 4,060 TP2: 4,040 TP3: 3,998 This is the safest and highest-probability sell setup for FOMC. --- ⭐ Scenario 2: Gold Sweeps 4,060–4,040 and Then Rallies This scenario happens if the FOMC outcome is dovish. Buy Entry Rules 1. The news candle must sweep below 4,060 or 4,040 with a strong wick. 2. A large bullish engulfing candle must appear immediately after the sweep. 3. A confirmed CHoCH to the upside must form on the 1m or 5m timeframe. Buy Entry Trigger Enter after the CHoCH retest near 4,060. Stop Loss 4,030 Take Profit Levels TP1: 4,100 TP2: 4,120 TP3: 4,150
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FMFinancialAdvisor
GOLD BOUNCES FROM $4,000 - FOMC MINUTES TODAY!💰 GOLD BOUNCES FROM $4,000 - FOMC MINUTES TODAY! 📈 Current Price: $4,085 - $4,090 🟢 Opening Price: $4,079 Yesterday's Close: $4,066 (+0.56%) Today's Performance: +0.56% ✅ Status: 🟢 RECOVERY MODE - CRITICAL DAY 🚨 MAJOR EVENT TODAY - FOMC MINUTES! ⚡ THE $4,000 SUPPORT HELD! Gold successfully defended the critical psychological level and is now bouncing. But TODAY is the most important day this week! What's Happening: ✅ $4,000 Support HELD - Bulls defended successfully! ✅ Morning Star Pattern Formed - Bullish reversal signal at support ✅ FOMC Minutes TODAY - Will determine next major move ✅ NFP Data Thursday - First post-shutdown jobs report ✅ Risk-Off Sentiment - Safe-haven flows supporting gold ✅ Expected to RISE - Analysts forecast upward movement 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Market Structure: BULLISH RECOVERY 🟢🟢 Gold has bounced off the ascending trendline AND the $4,000 psychological level - a DOUBLE support confluence! Bulls are back in control short-term. Key Development: Bulls managed to hold psychological level of $4,005 and formed Morning Star pattern indicating renewed buying activity Critical Support Levels (Defended!) 🔵 Support 1: $4,050 - $4,060 (Current base - Strong) Support 2: $4,000 - $4,005 (HELD! Psychological + Trendline) Support 3: $3,987 - $4,002 (November open) Support 4: $3,965 (November 6 low) Support 5: $3,930 (Major support) Key Resistance Levels (Recovery targets) 🔴 Resistance 1: $4,096 - $4,100 (KEY - 50-day MA + Descending trendline) Resistance 2: $4,112 - $4,120 (20-day SMA - Strong) Resistance 3: $4,140 - $4,150 (Major barrier) Resistance 4: $4,170 - $4,212 (Previous descending trendline) 📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS RSI (14): 49 (Neutral - Can move either direction) ⚪ MACD: Rising sharply, approaching zero line (Bullish momentum!) 🟢 MFI: Growing - Liquidity inflow into asset ✅ 4H RSI: Bounced up but below 50 (Recovery attempt) ⚡ Moving Averages: Price broke above 100-day MA ✅ Testing 50-day MA at $4,096 🔴 20-day SMA at $4,112 (Resistance) 🔴 Above ascending trendline ✅ VWAP & SMA20: Aligned with market price - Equilibrium between buyers/sellers 🎯 TODAY'S TRADING STRATEGIES SCENARIO 1: BULLISH BREAKOUT 🟢 (60% Probability) On November 20, 2025, price of XAU/USD expected to RISE IF Gold Breaks Above $4,100: Break of descending trendline and 50-day MA around $4,096 could open rally toward $4,212 LONG Setup: Entry: Break and close above $4,100-$4,112 Targets: TP1: $4,140 📍 (+40 pips) TP2: $4,170 📍 (+70 pips) TP3: $4,212 📍 (+112 pips - Previous trendline touch) Stop Loss: $4,065 (Below support) Risk/Reward: Excellent 1:3+ ratio ✅ SCENARIO 2: FALSE BREAKOUT / REJECTION 🔴 (30% Probability) IF Gold Gets Rejected at $4,096-$4,112: Bulls tried but failed - retest of support coming SHORT Setup (Scalp): Entry: Rejection at $4,100-$4,112 (confirmed with bearish candle) Targets: TP1: $4,065 📍 TP2: $4,050 📍 TP3: $4,000 📍 (Retest) Stop Loss: $4,125 (Tight!) ⚠️ WARNING: This is counter-trend - use small positions! SCENARIO 3: FOMC VOLATILITY 📊 (10% Probability) IF FOMC Minutes Cause Whipsaw: Strategy: WAIT for Clear Direction Let the dust settle after FOMC release Trade the REACTION, not the news Entry: After 30-60 minutes of FOMC release Follow the momentum with trend 💎 BEST TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Highly Recommended!) 🎯 WAIT FOR FOMC MINUTES! Don't trade BEFORE the release. Setup A - Breakout Play (Preferred): WAIT for FOMC minutes (Today, US session) IF gold breaks $4,100-$4,112 with volume Entry: $4,105-$4,112 (after confirmation) Target: $4,140 → $4,170 → $4,212 SL: $4,080 Why: Riding institutional momentum Setup B - Dip Buy: IF gold pulls back to $4,050-$4,060 Entry: $4,052-$4,060 (on bounce) Target: $4,100 → $4,120 SL: $4,035 ⚠️ DO NOT TRADE during first 30 min after FOMC release! Wait for clarity! 🌍 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS TODAY'S MAJOR EVENTS 📅 🔥 FOMC MINUTES (US Session - CRITICAL!) This is THE event today. Will show: Fed's thinking on December rate cut Concerns about economy post-shutdown Inflation outlook Market waiting for FOMC Minutes release and speech by Fed member John Williams Thursday: NFP Data (First post-shutdown report) September NFP expected: +50,000 jobs Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (forecast) This could be market-moving! BULLISH FACTORS ⬆️⬆️ ✅ $4,000 Support Held - Technical strength confirmed ✅ Morning Star Pattern - Bullish reversal at support ✅ Risk-Off Sentiment - Stocks falling, gold rising ✅ Softer Treasury Yields - Making gold more attractive ✅ Shutdown Concerns - Economic weakness = gold support ✅ Analysts predict gold may reach $4,456-$4,509 by end November ✅ Central banks targeting 750-900 tonnes purchases for 2025 BEARISH RISKS ⬇️ ⚠️ Hawkish FOMC - If minutes show Fed reluctant to cut rates ⚠️ Strong NFP Thursday - Would reduce rate cut odds ⚠️ Resistance at $4,100-$4,112 - Strong technical barrier ⚠️ December Rate Cut Odds - Only 43% (down from 63%) ⚠️ DXY Still Above 99.50 - Dollar maintaining strength 🔥 MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH What's Different Today: The $4,000 level held perfectly - this is VERY bullish technically. But FOMC minutes could change everything in minutes! Analyst Views: Short-term (Today/Tomorrow): $4,000 held, bulls need acceptance above $4,100 for rally to gather steam. FOMC minutes will determine direction. This Week: Critical - FOMC + NFP data will set tone for rest of November Month End: IF recovery continues → $4,200-$4,300 possible IF rejected at $4,100 → Chop between $4,000-$4,100 💡 PROFESSIONAL GAME PLAN For DAY TRADERS: ⚡ Wait for FOMC! Do NOT trade 1 hour before release Do NOT trade first 30 min after release After dust settles, trade the direction Use tight stops (whipsaws common) For SWING TRADERS: 📊 This is Your Setup! IF $4,100 breaks with FOMC → GO LONG (hold 3-5 days to $4,170+) IF rejected at $4,100 → WAIT for next dip to $4,000 Target: $4,212 (1-2 week hold) For LONG-TERM INVESTORS: 💎 Accumulation Zone $4,000-$4,080 range is BUYING opportunity Long-term targets: $4,500-$5,000 (2026) Strategy: Build position gradually Vision: Multi-month hold 📅 TODAY'S TIMELINE Asian Session (Done): Gold bounced to $4,085-$4,090 ✅ European Session (Now): Consolidation before FOMC US Session: FOMC MINUTES RELEASE 🔥🔥🔥 After FOMC: Big volatility expected - direction determined Tomorrow (Thursday): NFP Data (September) - First post-shutdown This will confirm or reverse today's move 🎬 BOTTOM LINE (TL;DR) Price: $4,085 (Bouncing) Bias: 🟢 BULLISH (IF breaks $4,100) Key Level: $4,100 (Break = Rally | Reject = Chop) Today's Event: FOMC MINUTES (Trade-defining!) Best Action: WAIT for FOMC, then trade the breakout Risk Level: HIGH (Event volatility!) 🔔 THE $4,100 LEVEL - TODAY'S BATTLEGROUND! IF GOLD BREAKS ABOVE $4,100-$4,112: ✅ Bulls win! ✅ Target $4,140 → $4,170 → $4,212 ✅ Possible rally to $4,250+ ✅ GO LONG after confirmation IF GOLD REJECTS AT $4,100: ⚠️ Bulls stall ⚠️ Range between $4,000-$4,100 continues ⚠️ Wait for next setup ⚠️ Don't force trades FOMC DECIDES EVERYTHING! 📊 Dovish = GOLD UP 🚀 📊 Hawkish = GOLD DOWN/SIDEWAYS 📉 📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Trend: 🟢 BULLISH (Short-term recovery active) Momentum: IMPROVING - MACD rising 📈 Support: HOLDING at $4,050-$4,060 ✅ Resistance: TESTING at $4,096-$4,112 🎯 Pattern: Morning Star reversal + Trendline bounce Next Move: Break $4,112 = UP | Reject = CHOP Key Technical: Having bounced off ascending trendline and $4,000, gold broke above 100-day MA and now testing descending trendline/50-day MA confluence ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT - FOMC DAY! ✅ Wait for FOMC - Don't guess the news! ✅ Small Positions - Risk MAX 1% (High volatility!) ✅ Wide Stops - Give trades room (40-50 pips) ✅ Quick Profits - Lock gains on FOMC spikes ✅ No Revenge - If wrong, accept and move on 🎯 SWING TRADE SETUPS Setup A - FOMC Breakout (Recommended): WAIT for FOMC minutes release Entry: IF breaks $4,112 (after FOMC) Target 1: $4,170 (Hold 2-3 days) Target 2: $4,212 (Hold 5-7 days) Target 3: $4,250 (Hold 1-2 weeks) Stop Loss: $4,070 Setup B - Rejection Trade: Entry: IF rejected at $4,100 (after FOMC) Target 1: $4,050 (Hold 1-2 days) Target 2: $4,000 (Hold 2-3 days) Stop Loss: $4,125 🏆 PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY Gold has executed a PERFECT TECHNICAL BOUNCE from the $4,000 psychological level. The formation of a Morning Star candlestick pattern at support is a classic bullish reversal signal. The Setup: Price trading at $4,085.62 as of 19.11.2025 Held $4,000 support perfectly (double bottom with trendline) Now testing critical $4,096-$4,112 resistance zone FOMC minutes today will determine next major move Most Likely Scenarios: Scenario 1 (60%): FOMC shows Fed concerned about economy → Gold breaks $4,112 → Rally to $4,170-$4,212 Scenario 2 (30%): FOMC shows Fed staying hawkish → Gold rejected at $4,100 → Range $4,000-$4,100 continues Scenario 3 (10%): FOMC very dovish → Gold explodes through $4,212 → $4,250+ The Big Picture: $4,000 holding is VERY bullish. This was the make-or-break level and bulls defended it perfectly. If FOMC is dovish or neutral, gold has clear path to $4,200+ 💪 TRADING PSYCHOLOGY TIP THE BOUNCE IS HERE! Yesterday we were at $4,000 and scared. Today we're at $4,085 and hopeful. This is why you MUST have a plan and stick to it. Those who bought at $4,000 yesterday are now profitable. Discipline wins! 🎯 🎓 LESSON: THE MORNING STAR PATTERN What happened at $4,000: Day 1: Long bearish candle (fear) Day 2: Small candle (indecision) Day 3: Long bullish candle (bulls return) This is a Morning Star - one of the most reliable bullish reversal patterns! It shows bears exhausted and bulls taking control. Trading Strategy: When you see this at major support (like $4,000), it's a HIGH probability long setup! 🔮 FORECAST Today: FOMC minutes → Breakout $4,112 OR rejection Tomorrow: NFP data → Confirm today's direction End of Week: $4,140-$4,170 OR back to $4,000 Next Week: Recovery continues to $4,200+ if $4,100 breaks Month End: $4,250-$4,300 (IF bullish scenario plays out) 🚨 FOMC MINUTES - WHAT TO WATCH FOR Dovish Signals (Gold UP 🟢): Concerns about economic weakness Mentions of shutdown impact Opens door to December cut Worries about labor market Hawkish Signals (Gold DOWN/FLAT 🔴): Confidence in economy Inflation still concerning No urgency to cut rates Strong labor market comments Neutral (Gold CHOP ⚪): Data-dependent language Wait-and-see approach No clear direction 📊 SUPPORT/RESISTANCE SUMMARY Strong Support: $4,050, $4,000 (CRITICAL) Weak Support: $4,065, $4,040 Weak Resistance: $4,096, $4,100 Strong Resistance: $4,112, $4,140, $4,170, $4,212 Breakout Level: $4,112 (Game changer!) Breakdown Level: $4,000 (Would be very bearish) ⚠️ FINAL DISCLAIMER Today is a high-impact event day. FOMC minutes can cause extreme volatility and rapid price swings. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Never trade the news blindly - wait for confirmation. Use stop losses religiously. Position sizes should be smaller than normal on event days. False breakouts are common immediately after news. The first move after FOMC is often NOT the real move. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before trading. 📱 CRITICAL DAY AHEAD! 💬 FOMC minutes in few hours! 🔔 HIGH volatility expected ⚡ Trade the reaction, not the prediction! 🙏 Be patient, be disciplined! #Gold #XAUUSD #FOMC #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #NFP #MorningStar #BullishReversal #EventTrading #RiskManagement #FOMCMinutes #MarketAnalysis #DayTrading #SwingTrading
TVC:GOLDLong
by AthensBySahan
Gold Technical Analysis: Three Consecutive Bearish Days Confirm Gold Technical Analysis: Three Consecutive Bearish Days Confirm Short-Term Weakness; Short-Selling Strategy Remains Dominant Market Review: Yesterday, the gold market was generally weak, with prices continuing to decline along the 5-day moving average, showing a clear short-term weakness in its technical pattern. Especially in the early morning hours, gold prices experienced a sharp drop, exacerbating the bearish sentiment, and the daily chart ultimately closed with a medium-sized bearish candlestick with upper and lower shadows. This candlestick pattern reflects the intense struggle between bulls and bears, but ultimately the bears prevailed, pushing prices to a low close. Technical Analysis: Daily Chart: Gold has formed a "three-day bearish" pattern on the daily chart, confirming a short-term weak trend. The moving average system is bearish, and the price is currently under pressure below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with the overall bearish trend remaining unchanged. The market is expected to further test the lower support level on the daily chart. If this key support level is broken, the downside potential may expand. Key Levels: Resistance Levels: 4055 (10-day moving average), 4075, 4095. Support levels: 4005 (yesterday's low), 3976, 3930 (daily chart lower line). Trading Logic: The 10-day moving average (around 4055) has become an important entry point for short positions today. If the price rebounds to this level and encounters resistance, it can be considered a good opportunity to short. If the price breaks below yesterday's low of 4005, the downside target will further point to the 3976 and 3930 areas. Trading Strategy: Short Position Strategy: Entry Area: Short in batches between 4050-4055, with position size controlled at 20%. Stop Loss: 4063 (8 points). Target: 4020-4000, with a further target of 3975 if it breaks down. Long Position Strategy: Entry Area: Long in batches between 3975-3980, with position size controlled at 20%. Stop Loss: 3967 (8 points). Target: 4000-4010, break above to 4020. Risk Warning: Market volatility is unpredictable; strategies should be adjusted flexibly based on actual market conditions. Investors should strictly set stop-loss orders, avoid over-leveraging or holding losing positions, and develop trading plans based on their own risk tolerance. Real-time price levels and detailed strategies can be obtained through internal channels.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by XAUUSD-Elizabeth
XAUUSD LONG TERM NEXT MOVE POSSIBLE ✅ Technical Analysis Breakdown (XAUUSD – 1H Chart) gold chart shows a rising wedge / ascending channel, and price is currently reacting at the mid-range support. You’ve drawn two potential outcomes – continuation upward or bearish breakdown. Let’s analyze both with precision. 📌 1. Current Market Structure Price is inside a large upward channel. It recently rejected from the upper trendline, pulling back toward the mid-channel support. Price is now sitting near the horizontal support zone ~ 4045–4034. This is a reaction zone where the next direction should become clear. 📈 2. Bullish Scenario (Bounce & Rally Toward 4250+) Conditions for upside: Price must break and hold above 4055 (you marked this level). Bullish structure resumes with higher lows. Target moves: 1st target: 4160 2nd target: 4250 3rd target: Retest of the channel top near 4300–4330 Your blue arrow upward matches this exact pathway. Why this can happen: Price still respecting the ascending channel. Mid-channel support is holding. Buyers may step in near support. 📉 3. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown to 3920–3890 Zone) This becomes active only if price breaks below the rising trendline around 4020–4010. Bearish targets: 1st target: 3980 2nd target: 3920–3890 (your green demand zone) This is a strong liquidity pool where buyers previously entered. Your downward arrow correctly points toward this demand zone. Why this can happen: Rising wedge patterns often break down. Momentum is currently weakening. Massive liquidity below 4000. 🎯 4. What Is Most Likely Right Now? Based on the chart: ✔ Price is testing support. ✔ Still inside the bullish channel. ✔ No confirmed breakdown yet. ➡ Bias: Short-term bullish unless 4020 breaks. Once 4020 breaks cleanly → bearish continuation becomes very likely. 🧭 5. Simple Trading Plan (Based on Your Zones) Bullish Setup Buy above: 4055 SL: 4020 TP: 4160 → 4250 → 4320 Bearish Setup Sell after breakdown below: 4020 SL: 4050 TP: 3980 → 3920 → 3890 For More Updates Stay Tuned
OANDA:XAUUSD
by wiqi4u
ANFIBO | Gold XAUUSD - In a Bearish structure yet? [11.18.2025]I'm Anfibo, Here's my XAUUSD Daily Trading Plan ;) Overall Picture: OANDA:XAUUSD has officially broken its bullish structure, confirming a shift in market sentiment and signaling that the upward momentum has cooled off. With the H1 trendline decisively breached, we now transition from a “buy-the-dip” mindset to a sell-the-rally strategy. The nearest resistance sits at 4058, a strong confluence zone where multiple technical barriers align. If price pushes beyond this level, the next supply areas to watch are 4104 and 4146 — regions likely to act as retests of the broken trend, providing high-probability opportunities for continuation sells. The overall expectation for today is further downside movement as long as gold remains below these resistance zones. Given the current structure, the market is presenting a classic post-breakdown setup, where rallies into resistance should be treated as opportunities to position for the next leg down. As long as gold remains capped below these key supply zones, the medium-term outlook remains bearish with targets toward the psychological level of 4000 and deeper. Trading Plan for Today: >>> SELL ZONE: (1) ENTRY: 4055 – 4060 SL: 4075 TP: 4000 – 3950 – 3920 (2) ENTRY: 4100 – 4110 SL: 4120 TP: 4000 – 3970 Risk Management: Prioritize sell setups only, as the bullish structure is no longer valid. Keep stops tight above resistance zones to avoid false breakouts. Maintain Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 on all entries. Avoid buying unless the market reclaims and stabilizes above 4146 with strong momentum. Conclusion: With the break of the upward structure, gold has transitioned into a bearish phase. We will stay patient and sell into rallies, especially near the strong resistance clusters at 4058, 4104, and 4146. As long as price remains below these levels, the path of least resistance continues downward toward the 4000 and 3950 targets. Stick to the plan, trust the structure, and let the market flow in our favor. HAVE A SWEET PROFIT DAY, GUYS!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ANFIBO_
The gold price correction is not over yet! Short gold.Last week, gold experienced a breathtaking rollercoaster ride. At the opening bell, gold prices surged and held firm above the psychological level of $4,000. Bulls, like galloping steeds, launched a new and fierce offensive, once aiming for the historical high set last month, reaching a peak of around $4,245. The market seemed to be ignited with the flames of a raging bull market. A series of hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, their words like thunderclaps, shook the market, abruptly cooling sentiment. Gold prices plummeted, erasing all previous gains, and ultimately closed around $4,085, leaving a trail of disappointment. The gold market has been caught in a period of intense volatility due to the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies and a lack of US economic data, leaving both bulls and bears relentlessly battered. Such extreme two-way fluctuations were nothing short of a brutal baptism for traders, especially those investors who habitually blindly bought the dip and ignored stop-loss discipline, who suffered heavy losses. Here I solemnly remind you: when the market is turbulent and the direction is unclear, do not rush into the market. It is better to observe the situation calmly, watch more and act less, and always face every breath and pulse of the market with a sense of awe. Regarding trading strategies! Regarding trading strategy: I plan to place short orders in batches within the 4075-4095 range, waiting for the gold price to weaken during a rebound. The key support level to watch is the 4030-4050 area. If this level is breached, gold may begin a new downward trend, heading towards a deeper technical correction. The above are my personal thoughts! If they are helpful to you or your ideas align with mine, please like and follow to show your support! All strategies have a limited lifespan, so while referring to them, you should also closely monitor market changes. I will also respond flexibly based on actual market fluctuations, and I will announce specifics in the channel!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Market_Trading_Guide
Gold is expected to rise and then fall in the short term.After opening today, gold was pressured down by the 4110 area, finding support at around 4050 and rebounding. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts show severe oversold conditions, indicating a clear short-term stabilization. Therefore, overall, while maintaining a bearish outlook for gold, a short-term rebound is likely, with a high probability of further declines. Key resistance remains at the 4110 area, followed by the 4140-50 area. A sustained bearish stance is warranted; an unexpected upward breakout could extend the rebound, but a decline is still expected. Key support during the European session is at the 4050 area, with the 4030-40 area being a short-term key level. A break below this level would likely lead to further declines towards the 3980-3950 and 3915 areas.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AnalystDavid_
1
GOLD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 4,085.57. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 3,997.50 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by SignalProvider
1
GOLD (XAU/USD): 2 Crucial Trades Before the NFP Storm!📉 Technical Analysis (SMC - 2H) Trend: Downtrend after clear MSS/BOS. Focus: Price is retracing to the Selling Zone (Premium) to fill the FVG. ⚔️ Detailed Trading Plan (R:R > 1:2) 1. Preferred Strategy: SELL Limit (Trend Following) Entry: 4,157.782 (FVG Peak - Supply Zone) Stop Loss (SL): 4,206.895 (Safe SL above nearest structural peak) Take Profit 2 (TP2): 4,051.733 (Main structural target - Nearest low) Objective: Participate in the ongoing downtrend. 2. Countertrend Strategy: BUY Limit (Technical Rebound) Entry: 4,051.733 (Nearest structural low - Support) Stop Loss (SL): 4,018.699 (SL below lower FVG) Take Profit 2 (TP2): 4,126.333 (Rebound to upper FVG low) Objective: Capitalize on the technical rebound from strong support. 🚨 Key Risk: This Week's Focus Hawkish Fed: Officials like Schmid affirm high inflation, unwilling to ease policy, maintaining high interest rates (Negative for Gold). Major News: FOMC Minutes (Wednesday) and especially NFP (Thursday) will determine short-term momentum for USD/Gold. Risk Management: Gold will be highly volatile from Wednesday. Adhere to SL and manage capital under 2% per trade. #Gold #XAUUSD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #FVG #SmartMoney #Fed #NFP #TradingView
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
ElDoradoFx – GOLD ANALYSIS (17/11/2025, ASIA SESSION) 1️⃣ Market Overview Gold opens the Asia session around $4,105, attempting a recovery after last week’s heavy selloff that drove price into the $4,032–$4,070 macro support zone. The bounce has pushed price back into a dense resistance cluster—including the descending trendline, 50 EMA, 200 EMA, and supply zone at $4,104–$4,116. Despite the short-term recovery, the broader structure remains bearish, with the market trading under multiple key swing highs and still respecting all descending structure lines. Asia session is expected to deliver a corrective leg unless buyers break through the first resistance block. Price is currently coiling before a potential breakout into London. ⸻ 2️⃣ Technical Breakdown 🔹 Daily (D1) • Gold holds above the 100 EMA, but remains below broken bullish channel support. • RSI ~55, reflecting a neutral-to-recovering state. • The daily BOS remains bearish until price reclaims $4,146–$4,173. • Daily buyers protecting the $3,930–$3,990 zone, but momentum is still corrective. ⸻ 🔹 H1 Chart • Clear bearish BOS from the $4,245 swing high. • Price bounced sharply from $4,032 and now retests a very strong resistance cluster: • Descending trendline • 50 EMA • 200 EMA • Micro supply zone • RSI ~41 showing weak bullish strength. • H1 remains bearish unless $4,130–$4,146 breaks. ⸻ 🔹 15M–5M Structure • Multiple CHoCHs after rejecting the $4,070–$4,080 demand zone. • Momentum indicators turning green, but trendline + MA structure overhead is intact. • Heavy sell pressure expected around $4,104–$4,116. ⸻ 3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis Last swing: 4,245 → 4,032 • 38.2% = 4,114 • 50.0% = 4,138 • 61.8% = 4,162 🎯 Fibonacci Golden Zone: 4,114 – 4,162 This zone aligns with supply, trendline resistance, and H1 EMA cluster → high-probability sell area. ⸻ 4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios 📈 BUY SCENARIO (Countertrend Only) • Entry Zone: 4,080 – 4,070 (Fresh demand + sweep zone) • Targets: 4,104 → 4,116 → 4,130 • Stop Loss: Below 4,060 • Confirmation: ✔ Bullish CHoCH on 5M–15M ✔ Engulfing or FVG fill reaction Only valid if the pullback holds above 4,070. ⸻ 📉 SELL SCENARIO (Primary Bias) • Entry Zone: 4,114 – 4,162 (Golden Zone + Trendline + Supply) • Targets: 4,090 → 4,070 → 4,050 → 4,032 • Stop Loss: Above 4,172 • Confirmation: ✔ Rejection wicks ✔ RSI divergence ✔ MAs curling downward This is the highest probability setup for the Asia → London transition. ⸻ 💥 Breakout SELL Setup • Trigger: Break & close below 4,070 • Retest: 4,074 – 4,078 • Targets: 4,050 → 4,032 → 4,010 • Stop Loss: Above 4,090 Continuation of the macro bearish move. ⸻ 💥 Breakout BUY Setup • Trigger: Break & close above 4,130 • Retest: 4,116 – 4,120 • Targets: 4,146 → 4,173 → 4,200 • Stop Loss: Below 4,104 Only valid if strong volume enters the market. ⸻ 5️⃣ Fundamental Watch • Asia session expected quiet until Tokyo liquidity. • Market positioning ahead of: • US FOMC speakers • US Housing Data • DXY stability near 106 still suppressing strong upside. • No major Asia-session news, but volatility may rise into London. ⸻ 6️⃣ Key Technical Levels Resistance: 4,104 4,116 4,130 4,146 4,173 Support: 4,090 4,080 4,070 4,050 4,032 Golden Zone: 4,114 – 4,162 Breakout Levels: • Buy Trigger: > 4,130 • Sell Trigger: < 4,070 ⸻ 7️⃣ Analyst Summary Gold is attempting a recovery from the 4,032 low, but the broader structure remains bearish. Asia session likely pushes into 4,104–4,116, where the strongest sellers are positioned. Only a clean break above 4,130 changes the short-term tone to bullish. Until then, the market remains in retracement mode, preparing for another leg lower. ⸻ 8️⃣ Final Bias Summary 📉 Primary Bias: Bearish below 4,130, targeting 4,090 → 4,070 → 4,050 📈 Alternative Bias: Bullish only above 4,130, targeting 4,146 → 4,173 → 4,200 ⸻ 📊 ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 – WEEKLY PERFORMANCE RECAP 📊 📅 10 – 16 NOV 2025 💰 Precision. Consistency. Profit. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🟢 MONDAY 10/11 ✅ BUY (SWING) +2,850 PIPS ✅ BUY +20 PIPS ✅ BUY +210 PIPS ✅ BUY +110 PIPS ✅ SELL +20 PIPS ✅ BUY +210 PIPS 📊 Huge start — swing and intraday aligned perfectly. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔵 TUESDAY 11/11 GOLD ✅ BUY +110 PIPS ✅ BUY +90 PIPS ✅ BUY LIMIT +40 PIPS ✅ BUY +40 PIPS ✅ BUY +60 PIPS ❌ BUY -50 PIPS (SL) ✅ BUY +280 PIPS ✅ BUY +240 PIPS LIVE SESSION ❌ BUY -40 PIPS (SL) ✅ BUY +120 PIPS ✅ BUY +60 PIPS ✅ BUY +30 PIPS 📈 Strong directional day with clean scalping in session. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🟣 WEDNESDAY 12/11 ✅ BUY +20 PIPS ✅ BUY +30 PIPS ✅ BUY +40 PIPS ❌ SELL -40 PIPS (SL) ✅ BUY +210 PIPS ✅ SELL +15 PIPS ✅ BUY +210 PIPS 📊 Trend continuation — minimal drawdown. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔴 THURSDAY 13/11 ❌ BUY -40 PIPS (SL) ✅ BUY +210 PIPS ✅ BUY +110 PIPS ✅ BUY +60 PIPS ✅ BUY +210 PIPS ✅ BUY +60 PIPS ❌ BUY -80 PIPS (SL) ✅ SELL +210 PIPS ⚖️ BUY – BE ✅ BUY +240 PIPS 🔥 Huge bullish momentum — big intraday winners. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🟡 FRIDAY 14/11 ❌ BUY -60 PIPS (SL) ✅ BUY +110 PIPS ✅ BUY LIMIT +60 PIPS ✅ SELL +110 PIPS ❌ BUY -70 PIPS (SL) ✅ BUY +110 PIPS LIVE SESSION ⚖️ BUY – BE ✅ SELL +250 PIPS ❌ BUY -40 PIPS (SL) ✅ BUY +60 PIPS ⚖️ SELL – BE ✅ SELL +180 PIPS 📊 High volatility day — precision paid off. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🪙 BTC/USD WEEKEND BONUS ✅ SELL +600 PIPS ✅ BUY +500 PIPS ✅ SELL +400 PIPS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 WEEKLY RECAP 🥇 GOLD NET PIPS: +6,575 PIPS 📱 BTC/USD BONUS: +1,500 PIPS 🚀 TOTAL WEEKLY PROFIT: +8,075 PIPS 📌 Signals Counted: 39 Wins | 8 SL 🎯 Win Rate: 83% ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 Another powerful trading week — GOLD swings and intraday setups delivered exceptional precision, and BTC weekend signals added strong bonus gains. 👏 Congrats if you profited! Let’s continue the momentum. — ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 💼📈
VANTAGE:XAUUSDShort
by ELDORADOFX
GOLD Bullish Breakout! Buy! Hello,Traders! GOLD broke out of the bullish flag, confirming bullish momentum after absorbing sell-side liquidity. With structure shifting upward, price may extend toward the buy-side liquidity resting at the marked target level.Time Frame 5H. Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TopTradingSignals
1
ALERT SET AT 4068 on XAU/USDXAU/USD 1H - As you can see price is showing great signs of bullishness, respecting these areas of Demand and providing us with the bullish structure we expect. You can see that I marked out and area of interest that price has come to clear and trade into perfectly. We have since seen price trade us higher giving us the opportunity to buy in. I have gone ahead and marked out an area of interest just below current price with an alert set at 4068. I would like to see price come to trade down and into this before continuing this bullish momentum. We could look to set a pending order here for this setup, as we know pending orders do hold risk though as we are not waiting for entry confirmation as such. I will follow up with a pending order.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Lukegforex
XAUUSD (Gold) Is heading UPWARDS! - time to buyA few weeks ago XAUUSD (Gold) was in a short term downtrend but finally broke out of it. The price broke through the downward channel to the upside, the price also held onto strong support (the white trendline which acted as a support level). The price tested the white trendline several times but kept bouncing back each time it hit the support zone. The price then broke through all recent resistance zones and will very likely hit the next resistance zone which is marked as the "Take profit" area. BUY GOLD NOW!
TVC:GOLDLong
by VIPindicators
Report 18/11/25Summary The next leg of the market narrative is being pulled in opposite directions by three forces: Tesla’s shareholder vote on an unprecedented, performance-contingent $1 trillion award that would cement Elon Musk’s control over a “physical-AI” strategy; a renewed wave of mega-cap AI capex that is visibly compressing margins at some tech leaders while strengthening others via cloud cash flows; and a fragile, tariff-truce détente between Washington and Beijing that eased tail risk but leaves core strategic frictions unresolved. Into this mix, risk appetite wobbled as a broad selloff swept across equities, crypto, and even gold late last week, while oil slumped and the dollar stayed firm against the yen, reminding investors that positioning and liquidity matter as much as fundamentals in the near term.  Tesla’s vote is the catalyst that concentrates these themes. The package would lift Musk’s stake to roughly 25% on stretching milestones, including audacious targets for market value and operational delivery tied to robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid platform. The governance optics are controversial, but the market read is binary: either lock in the “key-man” premium that underwrites Tesla’s robot ambitions, or risk a multiple that re-anchors on autos and energy storage if leadership or strategy fragment. Reporting indicates investors broadly expect passage, and U.S. press has framed the plan near-term as “likely to pass,” with big holders signaling support. The immediate vector for TSLA, then, is not demand for EVs in Q4, but whether investors are willing to keep discounting high-variance, long-dated FSD/robotaxi/robot cash flows on faith that Musk stays, and executes. At the same time, Big Tech’s AI arms race is reshaping P&Ls and factor exposures. Meta has guided capex up again into a ~$64–72 billion band for 2025 (with spending heavily skewed to data-center equipment that depreciates over ~5½ years), and its Q3 results showed costs rising faster than revenue, souring sentiment as investors reassessed the “spend now, profits later” trajectory. Alphabet also lifted capex materially this year (to the ~$70–75 billion zone), but benefits from Cloud profitability and stronger free-cash-flow momentum, softening the blow relative to Meta. Microsoft continues to show Azure revenue growth around the 30–40% range with high-40s to low-40s operating margins in Intelligent Cloud, keeping the cash-engine humming even as depreciation ramps. The message for markets is straightforward: AI is no longer just an “NVIDIA trade”, it is a capital-intensive, margin-shifting infrastructure build-out that helps owners of rentable compute (clouds) and strains ad-only models that lack a cloud payback.  The macro backdrop isn’t standing still. A fragile U.S.–China trade calm followed leadership talks that paused some tariff escalations and delayed rare-earth restrictions for a year, lowering immediate supply-chain stress and trimming the “worst-case” path for the dollar and global growth volatility. But analysts caution that structural rivalry remains intact, and any reprieve could fade as technology controls and election-year politics re-assert themselves. The effect is “less bad, not solved,” which markets will treat as volatility-suppressing while it lasts.  Market reactions (now) Into the weekend and Monday session, risk assets stumbled in concert. U.S. stocks slid, the Dow closed near 46,590, oil fell hard toward the high-$50s, and even havens wobbled as traders de-risked broadly; the euro hovered near $1.16 and USD/JPY around ¥155. A single-session snapshot never tells the whole story, but the breadth of the selloff, “ensnaring everything from gold to crypto to highflying tech”, speaks to tight positioning meeting a liquidity pocket, not a sudden change in the economic data.  Strategic forecasts For the next 1–3 months, the path of least resistance is choppy but range-bound risk. If Tesla’s plan passes, the “physical-AI” optionality narrative can re-inflate specialty AI and autonomy beta even if near-term EV unit data stay soft; if it surprises by failing, expect an abrupt de-rating in “far-dated optionality” names and a quality/margin rotation back toward cash-rich cloud providers. Beneath the surface, AI-capex leakage into the real economy, power demand, land for data centers, transformers, grid upgrades, should keep non-tech cyclicals like utilities equipment, select industrials, and specialized REITs on a firmer trajectory, even as ad-driven platforms digest depressed operating leverage. On policy, the tariff truce keeps DXY capped versus Europe but supported against Asia until there is clarity on tech controls; any renewed chip-export tightening would be dollar-positive vs. CNY/JPY but equity-negative near term.  Fiscal and political implications The AI build-out is becoming a fiscal and regulatory story. Power-grid bottlenecks will invite incentives, permitting reform, and local tax debates; capex-heavy tech will lobby for rapid interconnection timelines and favorable depreciation schedules to cushion income statements. Internationally, Washington’s need to coordinate with allies on “de-risking” versus China will continue to produce mini-deals that ease immediate trade noise without resolving the core strategic contest, keeping corporate planning in a “just-in-case” mode. Domestic labor and household stress remain in focus, shutdown aftershocks and partial SNAP payments demonstrate both the system’s resilience and its limits, with court-ordered funding workarounds creating administrative frictions that can dent near-term consumption at the margin.  Risks Execution risk dominates. For Tesla, commercialization of FSD at meaningful attach rates and regulatory-permitted robotaxi operations is the hurdle, not demos; any high-profile setback in autonomy safety would sharply compress the “option value” embedded in TSLA. For Big Tech, the risk is a capex-driven margin air-pocket that collides with a softer ad tape or slower cloud bookings. Macro-politically, the U.S.–China respite could evaporate on chips, rare-earths, or maritime incidents; sanctions slippage via Russia-China energy trade complicates oil balances and could reignite volatility if enforcement tightens. Lastly, positioning risk is acute: with crowded exposures in AI beneficiaries and gold/crypto hedges, air pockets can produce “sell everything” days like we just saw.  Opportunities Investors can lean into AI infrastructure second-derivatives, power, grid equipment, switchgear, long-lead transformers, specialized construction, and select data-center landlords, where backlog visibility is rising with less headline risk than ad-supported platforms. Within tech, prefer cloud vendors with improving unit economics over ad-only models until depreciation crests. In autos, position for dispersion: high-quality suppliers leveraged to driver-assist and power electronics should hold up better than commodity EV assemblers until pricing stabilizes. For macro hedges, maintain a barbelled approach, quality duration and cash-generative defensives on one side; selective commodity exposure (especially if China continues to build oil reserves) on the other, while avoiding crowded, high-beta hedges that can unwind violently.  Asset-by-asset take XAUUSD (Gold): The latest de-risking wave hit gold alongside crypto, which is unusual but not unprecedented when funds raise cash. Structurally, gold is still supported by negative real-rate impulses if the Fed leans easier into 2026 and by central-bank buying. Tactically, expect choppy consolidation after a parabolic year; add on dips that coincide with DXY spikes rather than chase strength.  S&P 500 / Dow Jones: Mega-cap tech’s capex shock and margin questions argue for a narrower leadership with rolling corrections beneath the index. The Dow’s latest pullback to ~46,6k reflects de-risking, not a growth scare; breadth and earnings revisions, particularly in cloud, utilities-adjacent industrials, and healthcare, will dictate whether dips are bought. Near-term, a 3–5% volatility band is base case.  DXY: The tariff truce and softer oil tone limit upside versus EUR, but DXY stays supported by U.S. growth differentials and higher carry versus JPY and some EM. Range 102–106 feels appropriate unless a new policy shock re-prices the Fed path or a sharper European slowdown materializes.  USDJPY: With yen near ~¥155 and the BoJ’s normalization still glacial, USDJPY remains a funding-beta barometer. Episodes of global de-risking can pull it lower, but the structural trade favors rallies unless Tokyo accelerates policy shifts or U.S. yields break lower decisively.  Crude Oil: Prices slipped toward the high-$50s despite geopolitics, aided by ample supply and China’s stockpiling strategy smoothing demand. Sanctions friction around Russian flows is real but porous; watch for enforcement surprises as the main upside risk. Base case: $58–70 WTI unless inventories tighten.  TSLA (as a proxy for “physical-AI” beta): Passage of the plan likely sustains the optionality premium; failure compresses the multiple quickly toward autos/energy storage comps. Either way, volatility is elevated into and right after the vote; risk-manage with staged sizing and options overlays if expressing a view.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku