Gold prices could fall below $4,000 today.Gold prices could fall below $4,000 today.
Progress in US-China trade negotiations has eased tensions between the two major economies, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal.
Investors are awaiting the results of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting (expected to be released around October 30th), which will determine the future direction of interest rates.
If the Fed sends a clear signal of a rate cut, gold prices are expected to resume their upward trend.
Key Technical Analysis: If gold prices fall below the $4,000 mark,
further downward adjustments are possible. In the short term, focus on support around $4,000.
Day Trading Strategy:
Resistance: 4060-4080
Support: 4000-4020
-----------------------------------
Short Sell Level: 4040-4050
Stop Loss: 4070
Target: 4000-3900-3800
The above is today's trading strategy.
Trade ideas
XAU ShortsGold here, can do the job from 25x… hold weight..
And still. She wants back $3983…
Targets here dipping for 3975 and look if can pop back to sustain $3983.
Super handle. 👏
Also can be extended into $3940 pending….
We don’t want to see this hold above 31
Longer Term!!! $3983 is the ticket I believe to ripping back into $4300+…
Let’s see Traders. 💃
XAU/USD Intraday Plan|Fed Cut Fails to Lift GoldGold broke above the 3987 resistance yesterday but failed to reach the 4042 resistance level, reversing sharply after the FOMC announcement and dropping back below 3944. The move reflected post-event volatility as markets reacted to the Fed’s cautious tone.
Price is currently trading around 3964, trending just above the MA50 but still below the MA200, suggesting early signs of stabilization while the broader short-term outlook remains uncertain. A confirmed break above 3987 could open the way toward 4042 and 4095, while failure to stay above 3944 may lead to another drop toward 3884–3820, where dip-buyers may look to step in.
📌 Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
3987
4042
4095
4137
Support:
3944
3884
3820
3781
🔎 Fundamental Focus:
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps, bringing the Federal Funds Rate to 4.00%, but Chair Powell’s cautious tone during the press conference dampened market optimism.
Markets reacted with volatility as traders weighed the potential for further easing later this year. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and lingering U.S.–China trade tensions continue to cloud sentiment, keeping gold supported on dips as uncertainty remains elevated.
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is consolidating near $4,000, following a rebound from the $3,948–3,957 support zone. The price faces strong resistance between $4,008–4,016, where there is a possibility to retrace back to the trendline. A rejection from this zone could confirm a short-term pullback toward support, while a decisive breakout above $4,023 may open the door to $4,050 and beyond.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $4,008 – $4,016 (resistance retest)
Stop Loss: $4,023
Take Profit: $3,957 / $3,948
Risk-Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 3.8
🌐 Macro Background
Gold extended its recovery for the second consecutive day amid renewed safe-haven demand, but the upside remains capped by the Fed’s hawkish stance. As FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani noted: “Gold trades with a positive bias for the second straight day, though remains capped below $4,050 amid mixed fundamental cues.” 【FXStreet】
The U.S. government shutdown concerns continue to weigh on sentiment, softening the Dollar slightly and supporting gold’s defensive bid. However, Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone—stating that another December rate cut “is not a foregone conclusion”—keeps the USD underpinned and limits further gold gains.
In addition, the de-escalation in U.S.–China trade tensions has improved risk appetite, reducing safe-haven flows. This mixed backdrop leaves gold oscillating within a tight range ahead of key FOMC member speeches and month-end flows.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $4,008 – $4,016
Support: $3,948 – $3,957
Psychological Level: $4,000
📌 Trade Summary
Gold trades near $4,000, balancing safe-haven support and Fed-driven headwinds. The short-term bias favours selling near resistance ($4,008–4,016) targeting the $3,957 zone, with stops above $4,023. A sustained close above $4,023 would invalidate this bearish bias.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
xauusd today 💡 What to watch now:
If price spikes above 4020 and then closes below 4010, that would be a classic manipulation wick, potentially followed by a drop.
If the USDX starts breaking above 99.25, that would confirm the short bias on gold.
I’m not entering yet — it looks promising, but we’re still waiting for a clearer picture. Definitely worth keeping an eye on though!
xauusd 1h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
XAU USD Last bullish leg ?Price has broken short-term bearish structure and moved above the moving-average channel with strong momentum, indicating a shift toward bullish control. The rising trendline is holding as support, confirming structural reversal.
Fibonacci levels provide clear upside targets, with 38.2% at 4040–4050 as the first objective, followed by a constrained upper target near 4070, just below the 61.8% retracement and prior supply zone.
As long as price holds above the breakout zone and trendline, continuation toward 4040–4070 remains the most probable outcome.
XAU/USD | Testing Deeper Support ZoneYesterday’s analysis is playing out as expected — the first support zone has failed, and price is now testing the Deeper Support Zone (3,944–3,884). The continued downside momentum confirms that sellers remain firmly in control, with short-term sentiment still leaning strongly bearish.
Gold is currently trading around 3,930, holding well below both the MA50 and MA200, reinforcing ongoing downside pressure. If buyers can defend this zone and push price back above 3,987, a corrective rebound toward 4,042 and 4,095 could follow.
However, a clean break below 3,884 would likely open the door for a deeper decline toward 3,820–3,781, where dip-buyers may look to re-enter the market.
📌 Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
3944
3987
4042
4095
4137
Support:
3884
3820
3781
Despite the current correction, the overall bullish trend remains intact, with the recent sell-off seen as a healthy correction within the broader bullish trend.
🔎 Fundamental Focus:
It’s a big week for the U.S., with the FOMC rate decision and press conference on Wednesday expected to draw most of the market’s attention.
Before that, traders will be watching Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales data today.
The backdrop remains tense with the U.S. government shutdown still unresolved, keeping overall sentiment cautious across markets.
( Gold Protocol ) Bearish Reversal DetectedStatus: Active Reversal Protocol
🆚Symbol: Gold
Session: London–New York Overlap (Smart Exit Window)
Bearish Reversal : 4085
☄️ Volume Surge Confirmed — Sellers dominate exhausted highs
☄️ Session Aligned — Smart money exit window open
☄️ Cluster Shield Active — Supply imbalance verified
☄️ Delta Shift Negative — Buyers trapped above
☄️ POC Retest Completed — Liquidity absorbed at resistance
☄️ Structure Break Pending — Bearish bias confirmed
🚀 Logic: This is engineered reversal, not prediction.
🚀 Objective: Controlled execution with minimal drawdown.
Goal: Controlled Both Sides with minimal drawdown
★★★★★ (Smart Money Aligned)
⤵️ Every like & comment on our Trading View posts helps us grow. More engagement means more exposure ★★★★★ , which benefits everyone in the community!
Gold: Technicals vs. Fundamentals as Prices DipGold is currently facing significant downward pressure, recently touching its lowest point since early October and dipping below the $4,000 mark. This bearish sentiment is largely fueled by two key factors: cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding policy easing, and a noticeable de-escalation in the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China.
As traders, we're now watching for the next catalyst. Upcoming macroeconomic data from the US, coupled with further commentary from Fed officials, will be critical in shaping Gold's near-term valuation.
The December Rate Cut: Not a Done Deal
While the market has been pricing in potential rate cuts, it's important to remember that a cut in December is not yet a certainty. This ambiguity is keeping buyers on the sidelines and adding to the metal's weakness.
A Look at the Charts (Technical View)
From a technical perspective, Gold is at a critical juncture. The key breakout level to watch is the $4050 - $4060 area.
The Bullish Case: If Gold can decisively break above this $4050/$4060 resistance, it would open the door for a test of the next significant level, around $4150 / $4160.
The Bearish Case: However, until Gold can firmly establish itself and stabilize above the $4150/$4160 zone, the risk of a deeper correction remains very high till $3700
We are observing a recurring pattern: Gold is repeatedly failing at immediate trendline resistance levels. In technical trading, this is often a classic sign that the market is weak and may be poised for a further decline, assuming there are no major fundamental surprises.
Trading Strategy: Patience is Key
For those of us looking to enter long-term buy positions, a two-pronged approach is necessary:
Fundamental Watch: Keep a close eye on fundamental developments. Specifically, any new updates regarding US-China tariffs or shifts in the Federal Reserve's tone on interest rates will be major market movers.
Technical Confirmation: Patience is required. We must wait for a confirmed technical breakout above the $4150 / $4160 area. Until this happens, the bearish pressure is likely to continue. Otherwise, gold still have bigger chances to test $3700 before it rise again.
The gold-driven logic behind the US attack on VenezuelaThe "black swan" shock in the global crude oil market: Venezuela, as an important member of OPEC, produces 1.2 million barrels of oil per day (accounting for 1.3% of global crude oil supply), and controls 18% of the world's proven oil reserves. If the US military strike causes the paralysis of its oil facilities (such as the Maracaibo Lake oil field and the Caribbean Sea ports being bombed), global crude oil supply will instantly decrease by 1.2 million barrels per day. Coupled with the fact that the situation in the Middle East has not yet eased, the Brent crude oil price may soar from the current $85 per barrel to $120-130 per barrel, reaching a new high since 2022.
The signal of restarting the inflation spiral: For every $10 increase in crude oil price per barrel, it will push up the US core CPI by 0.3-0.4 percentage points. If the oil price exceeds $120, the US CPI may return to above 4% in December 2025. This will completely reverse the market's expectation of "inflation moderation", and the demand for gold as an "inflation-resistant hard asset" will experience an explosive growth - during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the inflation concerns triggered by the oil price increase led to a 5.8% weekly increase in gold prices. This scenario shock is even stronger, with a weekly increase of over 7%.
Next week's trading strategy and analysis
buy:4000-4010
tp:4025-4035-4100
sl:3995
Emotional Debt: The Hidden Cost of Revenge Trading“You don’t lose the most money when you lose a trade.
You lose it when you try to get it back.”
Every trader has felt it — that sudden urge to “win it back.”
You take one loss, then another, and before logic can speak,
you’re already in a new position — not to trade, but to heal.
That’s emotional debt —
The invisible weight carried from one mistake into the next.
What Is Emotional Debt?
Just like financial debt, it compounds.
A small emotional reaction today becomes a bigger one tomorrow.
You start trading your frustration, not your system.
You stop managing risk — because ego takes over management.
You don’t see charts anymore. You only see revenge.
How It Builds Up
Ignoring losses instead of reflecting on them
Measuring self-worth by daily profit or loss
Forcing trades to “prove” something to yourself
Confusing emotional recovery with market opportunity
The Interest You Pay
Emotional debt doesn’t just cost money — it costs focus.
It clouds your judgment, narrows your vision,
and pushes you further from the patience that once made you consistent.
Breaking the Cycle
Pause after every loss. Step away.
Write what triggered your next impulse.
Accept that no single trade can fix an emotional imbalance.
Remember: You are not your last trade.
When you clear emotional debt, you stop trading to recover —
and start trading to understand.
Let go of the need to get it back.
The market gives clarity only to those who stop chasing closure.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Have you ever caught yourself trading from emotion instead of structure?
Share your thoughts — awareness begins with honesty.
XAUUSD Buy Setup - Bullish Continuation From 39661H chart shows strong bullish impulse followed by consolidation.
Price holding above structure — continuation likely if support holds.
Setup: Buy on pullback near 3980 with targets up to 4100.
Stop below 3865 to protect from invalidation.
‹ Educational analysis only. Not financial advice
Will gold fall below 3900 again on October 29?
Current Market Characterization: Volatile with a bearish bias. Gold prices have broken below the key psychological level of $4,000, indicating short-term technical weakness. The market is currently caught between long-term bullish fundamentals and short-term factors such as easing geopolitical risks and improved risk appetite. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, volatile and range-bound trading is likely to persist.
I. Core Market Logic
Short-Term Bearish Factors:
Technical Selling Pressure: Last week’s significant sell-off has led to further weakness in technical indicators.
Improved Risk Appetite: Signs of easing geopolitical tensions (e.g., trade negotiations) have reduced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Break of Key Support: The loss of the $4,000 level (coinciding with the long-term uptrend line) has intensified bearish sentiment.
Medium- to Long-Term Supporting Factors:
Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with another cut expected in December. This limits the downside for gold prices in the long run.
II. Key Price Levels
Bullish Defense Line: $4,020
If gold fails to reclaim and stabilize above this level, the short-term bearish trend is likely to continue.
Core Resistance Zone: $3,970 - $3,990
This area, formed by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, serves as a strong short-term resistance zone and an ideal entry point for short positions.
Support Zone: $3,880 - $3,890
This is the current near-term key support band. If gold stabilizes here, a technical rebound may occur.
Breakdown Target:
If the $3,880 - $3,890 support band is decisively broken, bears will likely test lower support levels.
III. Intraday Trading Strategy
Primary Approach: Prefer selling on rallies, with light long positions at key support levels as a secondary strategy.
Short Strategy (Primary):
Entry Timing: Wait for gold to rebound to the $3,970 - $3,990 resistance zone and show signs of rejection before entering short positions.
Profit Target: Initial target at the $3,900 - $3,910 support band. Secondary target at $3,870 - $3,880.
Stop Loss: Place above $4,000.
Long Strategy (Secondary):
Entry Timing: If gold retraces to the $3,880 - $3,890 support band and shows signs of stabilization or reversal on shorter timeframes (e.g., 1-hour/4-hour charts), consider entering light long positions.
Profit Target: Aim for $3,950 - $3,970.
Stop Loss: Place below $3,870.
IV. Trading Discipline and Risk Warnings
Follow the Trend: As long as the price remains below $4,020, the overall strategy should favor selling on rallies rather than attempting to buy the dip against the trend.
Exercise Patience: Only execute trades when prices approach key resistance or support levels. Avoid impulsive trading in intermediate ranges and refrain from chasing the market.
Strict Risk Management: Market sensitivity is heightened ahead of the Fed meeting. Always adhere to stop-loss orders to mitigate risks from unexpected fluctuations.
GOLD ; How far down?Hello friends
Well, after the good rise we had, the price needed a correction, which happened with a double top pattern.
Now the main question is, how far will the fall go?
Well, in the short term, the price can fall to the specified limits, and if the support areas are broken, the fall will continue, and on the other hand, an important resistance has been created, which the price needs to break for the new ATH.
With this decline, it is unlikely that the price will suffer for a while and correct because it has grown a lot and everything will end one day...
Support levels can be good points for buying, of course with capital and risk management.
*Trade safely with us*
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 30Gold Technical Analysis:
Daily chart resistance: 4090, support: 3840.
4-hour chart resistance: 4050, support: 3890.
1-hour chart resistance: 4030, support: 3916.
Technical Analysis: Gold prices rebounded technically after falling nearly 5% over four consecutive trading days. The market faced short-term headwinds due to Powell downplaying the possibility of a December rate cut; however, widening divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions have introduced new uncertainty to the market. Meanwhile, the trade easing agreement reached between the US and China has weakened safe-haven demand.
The daily chart shows a stepped decline, with four consecutive days of losses up to the previous trading day, and the moving average system has formed a death cross. After the European market opened today, prices rebounded rapidly. Short-term resistance levels to watch are 4010 and 4030. If gold can hold above 4010 and remain firmly above 4000, it will likely attract previous buying interest and resume its long-term upward trend. Conversely, if gold fails to recover and hold above 4000, selling on rallies is advisable.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, the moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the MACD/KDJ indicators are providing upward momentum. In the short term, focus on the continuation of the upward trend, paying particular attention to yesterday's rebound high of 4006 and the previous trading day's rebound high around 4030.
Trading Strategy:
SELL: 4050~4056 near
BUY: 3966~3960 near
More Analysis →
Gold surges strongly after Fed decision – eyes on 4000+ breakout1. Market Movements
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% and signaled a potential end to quantitative tightening (QT), gold extended its strong upward momentum.
Institutional and ETF buying continues to drive prices higher, with gold now testing the key psychological level at $4000/oz.
2. Technical Analysis
• Near-term Support: $3960 – $3970
• Deeper Support: $3935 – $3940 (pre-Fed accumulation zone & H4 EMA50)
• Immediate Resistance: $3988 – $4000
• Extended Resistance: $4025 – $4040 (mid-October technical high)
• Momentum: Both EMA20 and EMA50 on H1 and H4 are sloping upward, confirming strong bullish momentum. RSI remains elevated (70–75), signaling overbought but still strong trend conditions.
• Volume: Continues to rise steadily, showing sustained institutional inflows. However, short-term correction risks remain near $4000 due to overextension.
3. Outlook
The overall trend remains bullish, but caution is advised as gold approaches the $4000–$4040 resistance zone — a potential area of strong profit-taking.
If gold fails to break above $4040 decisively, a short-term pullback toward $3970 or $3940 is likely.
4. Suggested Trading Plan
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
Entry: $3925 – $3928
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $3922
🔻 SELL XAU/USD
Entry: $4037 – $4040
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $4043






















