GOLD | Bearish Momentum Below 4,053GOLD | Bearish Momentum Below 4,053 ⚠️
Gold currently shows bearish momentum while trading below 4,053, with potential to extend losses toward 4,011.
A confirmed break below 4,011 would signal continuation of the bearish trend toward 3,944.
However, if the price stabilizes above 4,011, a bullish reversal is possible.
A close above 4,053 would confirm bullish momentum toward 4,074 → 4,124.
Pivot Line: 4,053
Resistance: 4,074 – 4,101 – 4,124
Support: 4,011 – 3,978 – 3,945
Trade ideas
Gold Buying every local Low'sAs discussed throughout my Friday's session commentary: 'My position: I have been monitoring Gold from sidelines as mentioned throughout yesterday's session Highly satisfied with my Profit, as I spotted that #3,988.80 is showcasing strong durability, I have started Buying Gold with aggressive Scalps from #3,988.80 - #3,992.80 many times with at least #15ish orders delivering excellent Profits. I do believe Gold will continue soaring as long as Support zone is intact with #4,052.80 mark as my next Short-term Target.'
 Technical analysis:  The current Hourly 4 candle is already too Neutral to deliver continuation of Intra-day Buying sentiment and with Hourly 1 chart’s switch from Neutral to Bullish regarding the Short-term, Price-action limited the uptrend (even though Gold should be Higher, relative to circumstances and debacle on U.S. announcements), as Investors started taking Profits on their Buying orders and finding value within the #3,988.80 - #4,027.80 belt again (confirms U.S. sessions decline on unprecedented Volatility on Gold’s Price-action). The key is the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone priced at #4,027.80 - #4,033.80 which rejected the Price-action twice (current Month) and has already done so throughout last week on multiple occasions. This is the key and if that configuration breaks, Short-term Buyers should take it to #4,052.80 impulse in extension. Otherwise, the #3,975.80 - #3,988.80 Support zone should be re-tested for a potential Double or Triple Bottom as in late September. The DX though got rejected on it’s Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance and it is due to the weak Bond Yields market that Gold isn't near #4,052.80 mark already, and it became obvious that market speculators were manually preventing the meltdown I have been mentioning, knowing that U.S. announcement will revive Buyers as in late June. 
 My position:  I am taking advantage of Buying every local Low's since Friday's session last week, Buying either #3,988.80 Support with set of aggressive orders, or #3,992.80 Support in extension. I have Bought #4,001.80 as well towards #4,012.80 or above and will continue to do so until Gold is presented with a break-out to the upside. I do expect #5,100.80 benchmark on Medium-term.
XAU/USD Analysis — Awaiting Breakout Confirmation for Bull Entry🏆 XAU/USD GOLD vs U.S. DOLLAR 🏆
📊 Swing/Day Trade Opportunity Guide
🎯 THE THIEF STRATEGY SETUP
Market: Precious Metals | Pair: XAU/USD (Spot Gold)
Timeframe: Multi-Timeframe Confirmation
Strategy Type: Breakout + Dynamic Support/Resistance
💡 BULLISH CASE CONFIRMED ✅
The bulls are on patrol! 🚨 Multiple confluences suggest an upside move:
✨ LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average) acting as dynamic support with multiple touch confirmations — classic reversal signal for swing traders. The metal is respecting this lower boundary like a fortress wall.
⚠️ Breakout Confirmation Required: Watch for a decisive close above 4,060.00 — this level marks a critical moving average resistance zone. Once breached, this becomes our green light for layered entries.
💰 ENTRY STRATEGY: "THE LAYERING THIEF METHOD" 💎
Instead of FOMO-ing into one position, we deploy the layered entry approach — multiple limit orders like a professional accumulator:
📍 Buy Limit Layers (After Breakout Confirmation):
Layer 1️⃣: 3,920.00 ← Initial dip catch
Layer 2️⃣: 3,960.00 ← Continuation entry
Layer 3️⃣: 4,000.00 ← Mid-zone accumulation
Layer 4️⃣: 4,040.00 ← Final confirmation level
⚡ Pro Tip: Scale these layers based on your account size and risk tolerance. You can add more layers every $20-$40 intervals.
🔔 CRITICAL:
✋ Wait for breakout confirmation above 4,060.00 before placing any buy orders. Premature entries = Stolen profits going nowhere! ❌
🛑 STOP LOSS (Risk Management)
Thief SL Level: 3,880.00 🎯
This is where the heist ends if the plan fails. Close below this support = Exit the building! 🚪
⚠️ Disclaimer Note: This stop loss is suggested as a reference point. Your SL placement depends on your risk appetite, account size, and trading personality. We're not financial advisors — only fellow traders sharing our playbook! Trade at your own risk. 💪
🎪 PROFIT TARGET: "THE POLICE BARRICADE" 🚔
Target Zone: 4,360.00 🏁
Why this level? Multiple reasons converge here:
📈 Strong historical resistance acting as a "police barricade"
🔴 Overbought conditions signal potential pullback territory
⚠️ Trap zone detected — this is where smart money takes profits!
Strategy: Scale out your positions as price approaches this zone. Don't get greedy and lose the win!
⚠️ Disclaimer Note: This profit target is OUR suggested zone, but YOU decide when to take profits. The choice is yours — stack those wins or hold for more. No financial advice here, just trading wisdom shared among Thief OG's! 🎩
🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO MONITOR 📡
Watch these related instruments for confluence signals:
💵 USD Index ( TVC:DXY ) — Inverse relationship with gold. If DXY weakens → XAU/USD strengthens. Monitor for divergence opportunities.
🏦 SPX500 ( CAPITALCOM:US500 ) — Risk sentiment indicator. Rising stocks = potential gold weakness. Use as confirmation filter.
 FX:EURUSD  — EUR strength = potential gold support. Cross-market divergences often precede major moves.
 FX:GBPUSD  — Pound weakness often correlates with gold rallies. Track for multi-timeframe alignment.
 TVC:US10Y  (10-Year Treasury Yield) — Inverse correlation. Rising yields = headwind for gold. Monitor daily for macro context.
📋 QUICK CHECKLIST ✅
 Confirm LSMA support holds
 Wait for 4,060.00 breakout confirmation
 Place layered buy limits at 3,920/3,960/4,000/4,040
 Set stop loss at 3,880.00
 Scale profits into 4,360.00 resistance zone
 Monitor correlated pairs for confluence
 Respect risk management — never exceed 2% per trade
🎬 THE BOTTOM LINE 🎬
Gold is setting up for a potential swing trade move. The LSMA support is holding, and a breakout above 4,060.00 could trigger a run toward 4,360.00. Use the layering strategy to build positions methodically, protect capital with your chosen stop loss, and exit into resistance zones.
This is a confluence-based breakout play — not a guarantee, just probability on our side. 🎲
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
#XAU/USD #GoldTrading #TradingStrategy #SwingTrade #DayTrading #ForexAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #ThiefStrategy #LSMA #BreakoutTrading #RiskManagement #TradingCommunity #MarketAnalysis #Commodities #MetalsMarket
GOLD BUY TRADE IDEA	•	Market Context:
Price is currently consolidating after a bullish correction. We can see a series of higher lows forming, suggesting potential bullish continuation if liquidity grabs are complete.
	•	Key Levels:
	•	Zone A (Demand): Around $3,920 – $3,940
→ Deep liquidity grab or final mitigation zone before a major push upward.
	•	Zone B (Intermediate Demand): Around $3,970 – $3,980
→ Shallow pullback zone that could serve as the first area of interest for a short-term buy entry.
	•	Resistance: $4,047 – $4,050 (previous high / liquidity pool)
	•	Current Price: Around $4,016
⸻
Trade Scenarios
Scenario A (Deeper Entry / Swing Setup)
	•	Wait for price to drop into Zone A ($3,920–$3,940) for a deeper liquidity sweep.
	•	Confirmation: Bullish engulfing / Break of structure to the upside.
	•	Target: $4,047 (previous high).
	•	Stop-loss: Below $3,910 (structure invalidation).
Scenario B (Shallow Entry / Continuation Trade)
	•	Buy from Zone B ($3,970–$3,980) after a small retracement.
	•	Confirmation: Rejection candle or lower timeframe bullish BOS.
	•	Target: $4,040–$4,050 region.
	•	Stop-loss: Below $3,960.
⸻
Bias:
📈 Bullish, provided price respects either demand zone (A or B) and continues to form higher lows.
Trader’s Note:
	•	Patience is key — wait for clear rejection or structure shift before entering.
	•	Zone A offers a better R:R for swing setups, while Zone B favors intraday trades.
	•	Watch for news volatility (USD events).
Hey everyone! Great to see you again — let’s talk about XAUUSD!From a fundamental perspective, gold has been holding its ground pretty well, even as the US dollar regained some strength following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments earlier this week. Despite the short-term USD recovery, overall sentiment around gold remains supported by lingering uncertainty in global markets.
On the technical side, gold recently found solid support around the $3,900 zone — a key psychological level where buyers have stepped back in. Since then, price action has shown clear signs of strength, breaking back above short-term resistance levels and reclaiming structure. The EMA 34 is now curling upward toward the EMA 89, hinting at a potential bullish crossover in the making.
With that shift in momentum, I’m now watching for a continued move higher toward the $4,080 area — a level that lines up nicely with the next major resistance zone on the 4H chart.
💡 My view: As long as gold holds above $3,900, the path of least resistance looks to be to the upside. A clean break and close above $4,050 could open the door for a test of $4,080 in the coming sessions
WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY Gold is at no trade area, FOMC interrupted the buy signal yesterday so it may not to buy for long, maybe a buy to 3955 then it starts selling, the major buy will start from any moment after 1st November and if it fails then we will sell for a longer time but looking at last week CPI y/y and reduced rates yesterday the buy will likely start with momentum after November 1,
i will update it from November 1 if the buy hold or if it decides to sell more .
XAUUSD 1H Analysis (30th October 2025) ASIA/LONDON SESSION IDEAHey Guys,
BUY/SELL SCENARIOS:
BUYS:
1) Body Candle Close above the 3985.96 level.
2) Retest the failed 1h Bearish FVG at the 3985.96 level.
3) Create a 3/5m Bullish Engulfing Candle to capitalize on BUYS towards the 4139.00 level.
SELLS:
1) Retest the 1h Bearish FVG at the 3979.98 level.
2) Create a 3/5m Bearish CHOCH with a body candle close (with a FVG)
3) Retest the 3/5m Bearish CHOCH Level to capitalize on SELLS towards the 3838.00 level.
Trade smart, Trade safe, Trade according to your trading plan and don't FOMO!
SOME INSIGHT I POSTED MONDAY YOU CAN GO THROUGH 
SOME INSIGHT I POSTED MONDAY YOU CAN GO THROUGH 
Gold showed a buy signal last Thursday because it was supposed to sell and it failed, that is a buy signal there but it comes with technicalities, so immediately i saw it, i posted buy around 4090 and i guess price retraced down to 4091.7 and started buying and hit around 4140 and i thought it would buy more( but it was a buy to create a lower high which start like a major buy until it fails to move above a zone), but it closed somewhere around 4130 and after analyzing Thursday evening i realized, it will buy friday, but it would sell to test a major zone before the buy start with momentum so signaled a sell first before the buy Thursday,
On Friday midnight to dawn i gave a sell to somewhere 4050 and i gave a buy around morning time and was firm on that and entry was at 4065-60 sl was at 4040, and CPI drops in the afternoon , i thought what if CPI pushes it below 4040 with a sharp move before the buy start because i strongly believed it will buy but CPI is a dangerous news.
Immediately CPI dropped it moved up so I went to check the CPI and saw that m/m data was lower than expected and previous which is disinflation short term and therefore a possible bearish gold short term and y/y CPI was higher than previous which is inflationary long term and therefore a bullish gold after the short term sells, and so i anticipated the sells especially after price failed to close above 4130 but i still needed a confirmation and an hour or two after markets opened yesternight it signaled sells and thus today sells.
So there is a possible heavy buy lately by early next month which will be driving by the y/y CPI and an already priced in Fed's rate cut this Wednesday and a higher time frame buy , i don't trade only based on fundamentals, i check to see if they will lead to a change of trend and to be alert but my trades and analysis are pure price action/ technical analysis and no indicator , my brain and eyes always work together to determine price next possible move and not any indicator
Gold Outlook Ahead of FOMC: Dovish Fed Could Push Prices HigherGold Outlook Ahead of FOMC: Dovish Fed Could Push Prices Higher
As the market eyes tonight’s FOMC decision, volatility in Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to spike. Traders are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, from 4.00% to 3.75%, making the Fed’s tone a key determinant for the USD and Gold direction.
1️⃣ Fundamental Outlook
Rate Cut / Dovish Tone: Likely to weaken the USD, supporting a bullish move in Gold.
No Cut / Hawkish Tone: Strengthens USD, which may trigger a Gold correction.
Recent data shows softer inflation and slowing job growth, tipping the scales toward a dovish outcome. This aligns with a short-term bullish bias for Gold.
2️⃣ Technical Overview (H1–H4)
Gold is currently in a descending channel—a short-term correction within a larger bullish structure. Key levels to watch:
Type	Price	Comment
Resistance	$4,078–$4,100	Channel top & supply zone
Intraday Resistance	$4,050	Potential liquidity grab area
Support	$3,947	Intraday demand zone
Major Support	$3,874–$3,878	Monthly SMC demand block
Liquidity Zone	$4,005	Equal highs area pre-FOMC
The monthly support at $3,874–$3,878 has been strongly defended, indicating institutional buying interest.
3️⃣ Price Action & SMC Bias
From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective:
A sweep below $3,880 created a strong reversal block, signaling accumulation by institutions.
The market is now in a reaccumulation phase, targeting premium levels for liquidity grabs before the FOMC.
Order Blocks to Watch:
Bullish OB: $3,875–$3,900
Bearish OB: $4,078–$4,100
Price may test above $4,050 to collect stop orders, then react sharply based on the FOMC outcome.
4️⃣ Trading Plan (Scenario-Based)
🟢 Bullish Case (Rate Cut / Dovish Fed):
Entry: Break & close above $4,050
SL: Below $4,020
TP1: $4,078 | TP2: $4,135 | TP3: $4,249
SMC View: Break above channel → imbalance fill toward $4,135–$4,250
🔴 Bearish Case (No Cut / Hawkish Fed):
Entry: Rejection from $4,050–$4,078 zone
SL: Above $4,110
TP1: $3,947 | TP2: $3,874 | TP3: $3,820
SMC View: Premium zone manipulation → continuation of bearish channel correction
5️⃣ Strategic Summary
Bias	Setup	Action
Short-term	Bullish if rate cut confirmed	Wait for breakout above $4,050
Medium-term	Consolidation until FOMC volatility clears	Trade reaction, not anticipation
Long-term	Still bullish as long as $3,874 holds	Potential expansion toward $4,249+ in November
Conclusion:
Gold traders should monitor the $4,050 breakout zone for clues. A dovish Fed could propel Gold toward $4,249, while a hawkish surprise may see it revisit $3,874. Reacting to price action post-FOMC is key—anticipation could be risky.
Gold longGold made a steep pullback from that all time high, time to take some profits and aggregate more liquidity. Currently we're seeing a strong rejection, invalidating the latest bearish impulse. 
With the FEDs interests rates coming up I have no doubt that the price of gold will be going up again heading towards a new ATH.
XAUUSD | Gold to drop 2000PIPS, where is the best sell zone?🔍 Market Context 
After breaking the medium-term uptrend structure at the  main Trendline , gold has formed a clear sequence of  Lower High – Equal Low (EqL) , indicating a phase shift from bullish to bearish.
Currently, the price is fluctuating around the  3,960–3,970 USD  zone – this is a temporary liquidity accumulation area before heading up to retest the resistance at  4,015–4,050 USD , which was previously a  Demand Zone now turned into a Supply Zone .
If a strong bearish reaction occurs here, it is highly likely that the price will extend its decline towards the  Order Block 3,945–3,960 USD  zone, or even deeper to the  Premium Zone 3,884 USD .
 💎 Key Technical Structure 
 Main Trendline:  broken, confirming a structure change (ChoCH).
 Resistance Zone:  4,010–4,015 → quick reaction resistance.
 Supply Zone:  4,043–4,060 → strong technical pullback zone.
 Premium Zone:  3,884–3,900 → discount zone, potential temporary bottom.
 📈 Trading Scenarios 
 1️⃣ SELL Zone 1 – Scalp Reaction at Resistance Zone 
Entry: 4,010 – 4,015
SL: 4,025
Take Profit : 4,005 -  3,995 -  3,975 -  3,965 - Open
➡️  Quick scalp reaction at nearby resistance – suitable for London/NY session trading. 
 2️⃣ SELL Zone 2 – Major Retest at Supply Zone 
Entry: 4,043 – 4,060
SL: 4,065
Take Profit : 4,050 - 4,040 - 4,030 -  4,020 - 4,010/Open
➡️  Main setup – retest of supply zone confluencing with broken trendline, high probability if strong rejection on H1/H4. 
 3️⃣ SELL Continuation – Break & Retest below 3,945 USD 
Entry: 3,945 – 3,950
SL: 3,965
TP: 3,884
➡️  Setup breaks EqL bottom confirming downtrend continuation, targeting Premium Zone. 
 4️⃣ BUY Setup – Reversal at Premium Zone 3,900 USD 
Entry: 3,900
SL: 3,880
TP1: 3,910 -  3,920 -  3,930 -  3,940 -  3,950/Open
✅ Condition:
Only buy when a strong reaction candle appears (long-tail rejection / ChoCH bullish on M15–H1).
➡️  This is the final discount zone before major capital can return to the market – technical reversal setup, low risk / high reward. 
 ⚠️ Risk Management 
Prioritize SELL at supply zones, BUY at Premium – avoid trading mid-range.
Reduce volume in scalp setup (Sell 1).
If price closes above 4,070 → short-term downtrend is invalidated.
 💬 Conclusion 
Gold remains under short-term bearish pressure, however, the  3,884–3,900 USD  zone could act as strong support.
The suitable strategy is to capitalize on the two resistance zones for Selling and observe technical Buying at the Premium bottom.
👉  Comprehensive Strategy: 
 Sell 4,010–4,015 | SL 4,025 | TP 4,005 → 3,965 🎯 
 Sell 4,043–4,060 | SL 4,065 | TP 4,050 → 4,010 🎯 
 Buy 3,900 | SL 3,880 | TP 3,910 → 3,950 🎯 
🔥  “Trade with patience, react at precision zones — that’s how consistency is built.” 
 ⏰ Timeframe:  1H
 📅 Update:  28/10/2025
 ✍️ Analysis by:  Captain Vincent
XAUUSD - Buy to sell move :)I am currently anticipating a buy to sell move on Gold. Overall, Gold is in solid bullish momentum and over the last week and a half, price has been in a correctional phase. Based on the 4H time frame price has respected and rejected my demand zone, and I see price pushing to 4035 which is a 61.8% FIB level before rejecting that level and pulling back to 3886 and continuing in bullish momentum. 🚀
Whats your outlook? 🥶
Can gold prices go long amid a narrow stalemate?#XAUUSD  TVC:GOLD   OANDA:XAUUSD  
Gold prices continued to fluctuate narrowly throughout the evening⚖️, with the hourly and 2-hour moving averages converging in the 4010-4005 range, as both bulls and bears awaited a clear directional decision from the market.📊
However, from a technical perspective, gold prices have failed to break below the 4-hour moving average support at 3995 and the daily MA5 at 3985📈. These are crucial short-term support levels🚀, and the fact that gold prices haven't broken them confirms strong buying support below💪. This suggests that any short-term decline should be viewed as a technical correction rather than a market reversal.🤔
Therefore, although the short-term direction is not yet clear, considering the support formed by the 4-hour moving average and the daily MA5, I remain bullish and await a breakout from the consolidation pattern in gold prices🐂. 
There may not be much clear information tonight, so let's take a look at the performance of gold prices in the Asian session👀. In summary, the current trend is still in an upward channel. As long as the 3995-3985 level holds, I will maintain a bullish view. On the upside, pay attention to the short-term resistance at 4020-4030🤩.
XAU / USD   1 Hour ChartHello traders.  Taking a look at the hourly chart, gold has broken out a bit for a push up.  I am waiting to see if we can drop back towards the $4k area, to be sure it holds as support.  Many times gold doesn't retest, it just moves, but for now I am waiting to see if we can come down to my area marked on the chart.  This is just speculation and a trade idea.  Let's see how things play out over the next hour or so.  Big G gets a shout out.  I am just looking for a potential scalp trade, but it is Monday, so I am in no hurry to force or rush a trade. Be well and trade the trend.
Gold Short: Short-term Long, Long-term ShortGold has completed the 3rd wave on a Cycle level and is already on the Cycle Wave 4. Personally, I believe is that wave 4 has not completed and there should be another wave down. However, short-term, it should go up for a Wave e before coming down again. So this idea is really a short-term long and long-term short idea.






















