XAUUSD: Gold Battles the Key 4000 ZoneXAUUSD: Gold Battles the Key 4000 Zone
Hey everyone! Let's dive into Gold (XAUUSD) on the 4-hour chart, where we've seen some dramatic moves recently.
What We've Seen:
Gold made a strong run earlier in the month, but was firmly rejected twice at the 4400 mark, forming a clear "Double Top" pattern (marked with red circles). This led to a significant pullback, pushing price down through several support levels.
Currently, Gold has found some footing after hitting a low and is now attempting to recover.
The Current Battleground: 4000 Key Zone
Price is currently retesting the crucial 4000 Key Zone (highlighted in blue). This level acted as support previously, was broken, and is now being challenged again. The immediate task for buyers is to "Observe the price action if it can break the recent swing high" (marked with the purple circle) just below 4000, which has been acting as immediate resistance.
Scenario 1: Bullish Reclaim & Push Higher (If 4000 Holds Strong)
If Gold can successfully reclaim and hold above this 4000 Key Zone, it would be a strong bullish signal. This could open the door for:
A push towards the 4150 to 4250 1st Resistance zone, where sellers might step in again.
A more sustained recovery attempt, potentially aiming higher if that resistance is overcome.
Scenario 2: Rejection & Further Downside (If 4000 Proves Too Strong)
However, if the 4000 Key Zone acts as strong resistance and Gold fails to break above that recent swing high, we could see:
A reversal back towards the 3900 Immediate Support level.
Should 3900 fail to hold, the next significant support would be the 3800 to 3850 Next Support area.
In Summary:
The 4000 Key Zone is the pivotal point right now. Watch how price reacts here and whether it can overcome that immediate swing high resistance. This will largely dictate Gold's direction in the short term.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Trade ideas
Gold Rebounds Strong – Next Stop 4230!Gold (XAUUSD) showed a sharp decline in last two days, marking a strong correction phase after making new highs. However, today’s price action indicates that buyers are stepping back in around the 4000 psychological Major support Area.
Currently, gold is trading near 4113, and now there are high possibilities that gold will go for long till the Target level 4160 and Target level 4230..
KEY POINTS
Current price 4113
Target level 4160
Target level 4230
Major support 4130/4100
XAU.usd watch $4313-39: Gold about to hit Double Golden fibsGold continues its relentless climb into new highs.
Nearing Double Golden fibs at $4313.98 - 4339.07
Looking for a Dip-to-Fib or Break-n-Retest entries.
IF there is a top anywhere near here,
then THIS will be the ideal spot for it.
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See "Related Pubications" for previous plots such as this PERFECT DIP:
Hit BOOST and FOLLOW for more such PRECISE and TIMELY charts.
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Gold Trading Strategy for Monday
News:
Gold (XAU/USD) remained under pressure this week, falling below $4,000 at one point and hitting its lowest level since early October, influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious remarks and easing US-China trade tensions.
Considering all factors, future US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials will be key catalysts in determining the direction of gold prices.
Specifically:
From the 4-hour chart, the current short-term resistance level to watch is 4035-4030, with a key resistance level at 4055. Short-term support is around 3960. The overall trend remains upward, so the recommended strategy is to buy on dips and patiently wait for key entry points.
Specific trading strategies will be provided in the channel; please pay attention.
I believe the overall market will maintain a period of fluctuation before continuing its upward trend. Judging from the current market situation, the bottom has been established, but the upward trend has not yet started. In particular, the repeated fluctuations and shakeouts on Friday have added more uncertainty to the market.
This is mainly because market sentiment is currently quite divided. The US-China trade tariff issue is in a tug-of-war, and the Russia-Ukraine situation has begun to ease, but these remain unresolved issues. Although bullish momentum has slowed, it's not enough to reverse the bull market trend. The more important factors are US Treasury bonds, the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the cessation of balance sheet locking.
Therefore, after a short period of tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the market will likely rise again later.
Trading strategy:
Buy:3980-3975, SL: 3960, TP: 4000-4030-4060
XAU/USD "SET AND FORGET" PLAN OF THE WEEK🟡 XAUUSD (Gold) – Weekly Outlook Plan
Timeframe: H4 / Daily
Bias: Bearish after short-term pullback
🔍 Market View
I expect gold to make a small bullish correction up to the 4030–4060 zone, where we may see rejection candles forming.
Once rejection is confirmed (strong bearish candle from resistance), I anticipate a drop toward 3900 during the week.
💼 Trade Setup (For Educational Purposes Only)
Parameter Details
Symbol XAUUSD
Entry 4003 (after pullback confirmation)
Stop Loss (SL) 4063
Take Profit (TP) 3900
Sample Lot Size 0.01
Risk ≈ $60
Reward ≈ $103
Risk : Reward 1 : 1.7
📉 Trade Plan Notes
Wait for rejection candle (bearish engulfing / pin bar) around 4030–4060 zone before entering.
Trade may move fast once rejection occurs, but could also develop over several days.
this is a SET AND FORGET STRATEGY PLAN ;)
NOTE! for those that are concern and like to take profits before
Manage position carefully and move stop loss to breakeven if price breaks below 3970 with momentum.
⚠ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only.
Trade responsibly and always manage your own risk.
StevenTrading - $XAUUSD$: New Week Perspective – Prioritize...StevenTrading - OANDA:XAUUSD $: New Week Perspective – Prioritize BUYING According to Elliott Wave 5, Awaiting Range $3961$
Hello everyone, StevenTrading is back with the Gold scenario for the new trading week!
After a period of strong volatility, I am leaning towards more buying scenarios according to Elliott Wave 5.
Although retesting deeper support levels is possible, the technical structure still shows potential for price increase.
Initially, the structure on H1 is showing that the price is moving sideways within a wide range.
We will watch the price range to trade before Gold officially breaks the barrier!1.
📊 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
Elliott Wave: Prioritize the development scenario of Wave 5. This reinforces the medium-term upward trend.
H1 Structure: The price is fluctuating within a wide range, creating opportunities for Scalping/Day Trade at the upper/lower boundaries.2.
🎯 DETAILED TRADING PLAN (ACTION PLAN)
Our trading strategy this week is to actively buy at the lower boundary and defensively sell at the upper boundary to maximize the price range.
Primary BUY Scenario (BUY Primary):
We will patiently wait for Gold to adjust to the $3961$ area, an important liquidity support zone (near the Buy Liquidity/Buy Zone on the charts).
This is an ideal entry point to join the upward momentum according to Elliott Wave 5.
The Buy order will be activated at $3961$ with a stop loss SL $3950$ (set below support $3954$) to preserve capital.
Profit targets are divided into ascending levels: TP1 $3975$, TP2 $3990$, TP3 $4012$, and the final target is $4035$ as the price approaches the upper boundary.
SELL Scalping Scenario: To defend and take advantage of the adjustment, we will watch to Sell just below the strong resistance area at $4050$ (near old resistances and barrier zones). The Sell order will be placed with a tight stop loss SL $4060$. Profit targets will be prioritized for short-term (Scalping) to quickly secure profits.3.
📌 SUMMARY & DISCIPLINE (Steven's Note)The goal is to patiently wait for $3961$ to execute the BUY position with the lowest risk, pursuing the Elliott Wave 5 target. Capital management discipline and compliance with SL are mandatory in this wide range trading phase.
Are you ready to take advantage of this price range?
Wait for the big correction down on gold to finishHi traders,
Last week gold failed to go up and started making a complex pullback (WXY) now, where wave X was a Triangle. After that it dropped and made a corrective upmove.
So next week we could see another downmove to finish the bigger correction down.
And then the next impulsive wave up.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a rejection with an impulse wave up from the Weekly FVG. After a small correction down on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bullish you could trade longs.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
XAUUSD – GOLD IS GATHERING ENERGY FOR THE NEXT MOVEXAUUSD – GOLD IS GATHERING ENERGY FOR THE NEXT MOVE
🧲 1. Market Overview
Gold continues to consolidate inside a symmetrical triangle, showing clear compression as liquidity builds up on both sides.
This kind of structure often precedes a strong breakout, so whichever direction price breaks, momentum could be powerful.
At the moment, price is reacting around the trendline support, while a bearish OB forms near the upper boundary – giving both buyers and sellers tactical opportunities.
📊 2. Technical Breakdown (ICT Perspective)
The market is currently trading between two key areas of liquidity.
Buy-side liquidity lies above 4035–4060, aligning with an H1 FVG.
Sell-side liquidity sits near 3990–3980, where trendline support meets an older OB.
The price could sweep liquidity at one end before moving decisively in the opposite direction.
🎯 3. Trade Scenarios (for reference)
Buy Setup
Entry: 3992.38
SL: 3982
TP: 4012 – 4035 – 4060
Sell Setup
Entry: 4023
SL: 4032
TP: 4020 – 4012 – 3989
⚠️ 4. Key Points to Watch
Trendline support: 3985–3995
Order Block (OB) resistance: 4020–4030
Breakout zones: watch candle closures beyond 4035 or below 3980
📢 5. Final Note
Gold is coiling tight — a breakout is imminent.
Patience and confirmation are key: wait for price to react at the trendline or OB zone before taking action.
If you found this analysis useful, drop a comment and follow LanaM2 for more professional ICT-based gold insights.
Oct 31, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis:
On the higher timeframes, bearish momentum is weakening while bullish strength is starting to emerge.
If price breaks above 4047, watch the 4050 resistance closely — once price holds above 4050, bullish momentum should become clear, and the plan shifts to buying pullbacks into support.
If price falls below 4016, bullish strength weakens, and the strategy turns to selling rallies into resistance.
Also, keep an eye on 3960 — a break below this level would signal renewed bearish pressure.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 4085 – Resistance
• 4073 – Resistance
• 4065 – Resistance
• 4043–4050 – Resistance zone
• 4024 – Support
• 4000 – Psychological level
• 3987 – Support
• 3978 – Support
• 3960 – Key intraday support
📈 Intraday Strategy:
SELL: If price breaks below 4016 → target 4011, with further downside toward 4008, 4001, 3995
BUY: If price holds above 4040 → target 4043, with further upside toward 4046, 4050, 4055
Markets Dynamics Every Pro Trader Should KnowMarkets move based on fundamental forces that shape pro traders behavior, capital flows, and asset valuations. I will cover the most important concepts that drive market behavior across all asset classes and are fundamental to professional traders.
RISK-ON / RISK-OFF DYNAMICS
The most important concept is the oscillation between risk-on and risk-off sentiment—investor willingness to take on risk in pursuit of returns.
Risk-On: Equities, commodities, high-yield bonds, and risk-sensitive currencies like AUD, NZD rise.
Typical triggers are: positive economic data, easy central bank policies, geopolitical stability.
Risk-Off: Safe-haven assets : USD, JPY, CHF, U.S. Treasuries, gold strengthen. This happens as money managers and investors prioritize capital preservation.
Typical triggers: negative economic data, geopolitical tensions, financial crises.
Why USD strengthens during risk-off:
USD has a global reserve currency status, and that structurally creates demand; deepest treasury market for holding capital; trillions in global debt denominated in USD.
Why JPY strengthens during risk-off:
Carry trade unwinding (investors close positions by buying back yen); Japanese institutions bring back home trillions in foreign assets during crises.
INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS
Capital moves toward countries offering higher real interest rates (real rates = nominal rates minus inflation). This creates currency trends over weeks, months, and years.
Higher interest rates leads to higher bond yields, increasing capital inflows, resulting in currency appreciates
The Carry Trade: Borrow in low-yield currencies (JPY, CHF), invest in high-yield currencies (AUD, NZD), profit from interest rate differential. Carry trades unwind strongly during risk-off times due to leverage and crowded positioning.
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Markets trade based on where they expect inflation to be in the future, not current readings. Rising inflation expectations means central banks are likely to tighten policy, hence Bond yields rise and that may lead to currency strengthening initially.
Key metrics: CPI (Consumer Price Index), PCE, core vs. headline inflation, break-even inflation from TIPS spreads.
MONETARY POLICY CYCLES
Central banks are the most powerful players in financial markets. They control interest rates and balance sheet operations.
Tightening Cycle (hiking rates, quantitative tightening): Strengthens currency, negative for equities, bond prices fall, slows economic activity.
Easing Cycle (cutting rates, QE): Weakens currency, positive for equities, bond prices rise, stimulates economic activity.
GLOBAL GROWTH AND COMMODITY CYCLES
Strong global growth means higher demand for energy/metals = Commodity prices rise = Strengthens commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK, BRL).
Key indicators to watch: Global PMIs, global trade data, commodity indices, China growth indicators.
TERMS OF TRADE
When a country's export prices rise more than its import prices, local income increases and currency typically strengthens. Example: Australia's AUD strengthens when iron ore and coal prices rise.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Current account measures trade balance, income flows, and transfers.
Surplus (exports > imports): This accumulates foreign reserves, and generally supports currency.
Deficit (imports > exports): This requires capital inflows to fund deficit, and can pressure currency lower.
FISCAL POLICY AND DEBT DYNAMICS
Government spending and taxation are another dynamic that can influence economic growth and inflation.
Expansionary Policy: Higher spending or lower taxes = short-term growth boost = can increase inflation = increases deficit.
Contractionary Policy: Lower spending or higher taxes (this is know as “austerity”) = slows growth =reduces inflation = improves budget balance.
YIELD CURVE
One of the most important dynamics: it plots interest rates of government bonds across different maturities (2-year, 10-year, 30-year).
Normal/Steep Curve: Growth and inflation optimism, typically supports risk-on sentiment.
Flat Curve: Uncertainty about future growth, usually in late-cycle economies.
Inverted Curve (short rates > long rates): Recession warning. markets expect the central bank to cut rates due to the slowing economy. The inverted curve has preceded almost every U.S. recession in the past half decade.
LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS
Liquidity means availability of credit in the financial system.
High Liquidity: Credit is easy and cheap, supports asset prices, enhances risk appetite. Sources of ample liquidity are central bank QE, low interest rates.
Tight liquidity: Credit becomes scarce and expensive, forces deleveraging, triggers risk-off sentiment. Reasons that can lead to low liquidity are central bank QT, rising rates, banking stress.
BEHAVIORAL & POSITIONING DYNAMICS
When too many investors are positioned the same way (crowded trade), small sentiment changes can trigger strong reversals. Extreme bullishness can signal sell opportunities when everyone is fully invested. Extreme bearishness can signal buy opportunities when selling pressure is exhausted.
Key indicators to measure market positioning are: CFTC positioning data, VIX (volatility index), put/call ratios, fund flow data.
REAL YIELDS
Real Yield = Nominal Yield - Expected Inflation
Rising Real Yields: Stronger currency (attracts foreign capital), weaker gold (higher opportunity cost), pressure on growth stocks.
Falling Real Yields: Weaker currency, stronger gold, support for growth/tech equities.
Real yields drive cross-asset flows through opportunity cost (risk-free alternative return), discount rate changes (affects stock valuations), and dollar funding (global capital flows).
BOTTOM-LINE AND DYNAMICS INTERACTIONS
Markets are driven by multiple forces simultaneously. The strongest moves occur when multiple dynamics align in the same direction. Identify the dominant theme (inflation? growth? central bank policy?), understand asset class implications, look for alignment, and monitor for shifts.
Example Scenario - Fed Aggressive Tightening: Fed raises rates and begins QT → U.S. yields rise → Rising real yields → Tighter liquidity → Risk-off sentiment → USD strengthens, AUD/NZD/EM weaken, gold falls, growth stocks underperform.
Success comes from identifying the dominant market theme, understanding implications across asset classes, looking for alignment when multiple dynamics point in the same direction, and monitoring for theme shifts that can reverse the entire market structure quickly.
If you have questions or need any explanation don't hesitate to drop a comment.
Today's gold trading strategyPolicy Shift Foundation: Transition from "Passive Defense" to "Proactive Easing"
1.Reinterpretation of the Nature of Rate Cuts: Defining this rate cut as a "defensive operation", its essence is Powell's rhetoric strategy to balance the hawkish and dovish differences. The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 120,000 and 105,000 in August and September respectively, continuously below the "employment stability threshold" of 150,000. The unemployment rate has risen from 3.8% to 4.2%, and the inflection point of the employment market is clear. Under such circumstances, this rate cut is by no means a "one-off hedge", but rather a confirmation of the downward pressure on the economy. Historical data shows that after the first "defensive rate cut", the probability of subsequent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within three months is 82%, and the average increase in gold is over 6%.
2.Substantial Weakening of Inflation Constraints: Although Powell mentioned inflation risks, the core PCE has been below 3% for three consecutive months, and was recorded at 2.7% in September, just one step away from the 2% target. More importantly, the year-on-year service inflation has dropped from 4.5% to 3.8%, indicating that inflation stickiness is dissipating. This opens up space for subsequent easing - when the dual goals of inflation and employment form a "loose resonance", the interest rate sensitive rise in gold will be triggered.
Today's gold trading strategy
buy:3910-3920
tp:3940-3950
sl:3895
GOLD (XAUUSD) is ready to drop again! Gold has broken below a very strong support trendline which held the price for many weeks. It then also tried to test a powerful resistance level (the red trendline) but it failed to break through. It is now very likely to head all the way down to the next major support zone (which is the while line drawn below)
Gold on side Swings on Fed aftermathAs discussed throughout yesterday's session: 'My position: I am Buying Gold aggressively throughout yesterday's session all along especially when #3,952.80 benchmark got invalidated to the upside. Gap to the downside on Asian market opening delivered excellent chances to Buy more as I closed all orders with #4,000.80 Take Profit. Keep in mind that I might Sell #4,024.80 now (aggressive Scalp to the downside) only to Buy more. #4,052.80 benchmark and #4,100.80 extension are my Targets.'
If you followed Trading plan I announced above, you would be in excellent Intra-day Profits. I have Sold Gold from #4,027.80 High's multiple times and re-Bought Gold from #4,004.80 especially delivering excellent results and altered all my Trading activity (no need to gamble on Fed Rate decision aftermath). My Profit is excellent and will sit out today's session as it will be full of side-Swings where I will continue comfortable Trading throughout tomorrow's session.
This is just a rebound, not a reversal. Continue to short gold.The Fed's interest rate decision is highly anticipated, and the question remains whether gold bulls can stage a comeback. Gold is currently in a rebound and correction phase after an oversold condition. It's premature to declare a complete reversal of the bullish trend. Gold's rebound from its lows suggests a period of consolidation in the short term, awaiting the Fed's decision to determine its direction.
The 1-hour moving averages for gold continue their downward crossover, indicating that the bullish momentum hasn't fully materialized. However, there is gradually building support at lower levels. If a strong upward surge occurs before the Fed's decision, the bullish momentum may wane afterward. A break above 4020 would confirm a true V-shaped reversal for gold. Failure to break through 4020 suggests continued range-bound trading, with support around 3890. A hold above 3890 would likely lead to a rebound.
With the Fed's interest rate decision looming, let's wait patiently. Whether gold has finished its correction and whether the bulls have begun their counterattack remains to be seen. We'll observe the strength of the bulls after the Fed's decision. If gold breaks through and holds above 4020, the short-term upward momentum will increase.
Trading Strategy: Sell gold at 4010-4020, with a target of 3950-3930.
‘10.29 Buy first below 3900 and then sell!Technical Analysis:
The first resistance area above is 3960-70. Maintain a short position below this level. If the market unexpectedly breaks higher, focus on the 3995-4005 area, which remains bearish. If the market weakens, the 3945-50 area, previously the starting point for the rally, has become a source of pressure after breaking below it today.
Key support areas below are the 20-day moving average (SMA) at 3865-70 and the 50% level at 3840-45.
Trading strategy: Maintain a short position on rebounds.
Participate in the 3960-70 area, targeting a new low. After a new low, consider entering long positions based on the 20-day moving average and the 50% level.
XAU/USD – Make-or-Break Zone Sharp 11% Drop from Record HighBeen asked to analysis GOLD on current market structure
On October 20, 2025, Gold (XAU/USD) recorded a new all-time high at $4,383, marking a historic peak in the current macro cycle. Since then, the metal has retraced sharply by nearly 11%, bringing price action back into a critical decision zone — a true make-or-break level.
This area will define the next major directional leg. A strong bounce from current support could revalidate the long-term bullish structure and initiate another run toward ATH, while a breakdown below this zone may confirm a deeper correction before the next accumulation phase.






















