Correction down for goldHi traders,
Last week gold went exactly as I've said in my previous outlook. After a small correction down it went up again. Then it started a bigger correction down (orange wave 4).
Next week we could see some more downside to finish the correction, but after that this pair could go up again.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the correction down to finish and the next impulsive wave up. After a small correction down on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bullish you could trade longs again.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
GOLD trade ideas
Gold finally finds some resistance at Fibo extensionGold has been in a massive bullish trend going back to last February, when it started to finally leave behind the $2k/oz level.
There have been two pause points along the way, with bull pennants building in the final two months of last year and then for four months this year.
Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole drove a parabolic breakout from that second bull pennant, and buyers have been very much in-control ever since. But this week finally saw some resistance set in that was able to pause the move. The Fibonacci retracement spans the move from June and perhaps more notably the 161.8% extension had previously provided some resistance during the breakout.
The reason this matters is it helps to identify support. That 161.8% extension is at 3577, and if we do see a larger pullback around the Fed next week, that becomes a major spot of emphasis. And the 127.2% extension is also of note, as that price is confluent with the 3500 level and if we get a larger pullback, that becomes the spot for bulls to defend. And for traders that are looking for bullish exposure, that's a significant test of the move. - js
Gold (XAUUSD) – Evening Star Pause After TP1 | Case Study Part 4🔙 Recap
In our previous updates:
Part 1–2: A 15M Head & Shoulders turned into a bullish trap → price bounced ~200 pips.
Part 3: TP1 at $3,701 was achieved before a pullback to $3,630 support.
Now in Part 4, the Daily chart has closed with an Evening Star near resistance, signaling potential pause or correction.
📊 Market Context
Timeframe: Daily
Pattern: Evening Star candle formation
Zones:
Resistance: $3,702–$3,735 (untested zone above)
Support: $3,630–$3,615 (key demand area)
Momentum has slowed after the strong rally, suggesting the market is at a decision point.
🧭 Scenarios (with Probabilities)
🟢 Scene 1 – Bullish Continuation (60%)
If $3,630–$3,615 holds as support, buyers may push toward:
$3,735 → $3,765 → $3,788.
This keeps TP2 in play after TP1 success.
🔴 Scene 2 – Bearish Correction (40%)
A daily close below $3,615 could trigger profit-taking.
Downside targets: $3,604 → $3,579 → $3,540.
📚 Lessons Reinforced
Multi-timeframe storytelling works – Our 15M → 30M → Daily analysis shows how short-term setups link to higher TF patterns.
Partial booking saves profits – Taking TP1 at $3,701 protected gains before this pullback.
Candlestick psychology matters – The Evening Star highlights fading buyer strength.
🎯 Trading Guidance
Avoid chasing longs into resistance.
Trail stops below $3,630 if holding buys.
Wait for higher timeframe confirmation before new entries.
✅ Conclusion
Gold has respected our case study path: Idea → Trap → TP1 → Evening Star.
Now, the market must decide: hold $3,630 for a bullish push toward TP2 ($3,765) or break lower for correction to $3,579–$3,540.
The case study continues.
🔖 Tags
#XAUUSD #Gold #TradingCaseStudy #PriceAction #RiskManagement #MultiTimeframeAnalysis #tradyoga #yogeshonale
Gold Analysis – Is the Correction Over?Yesterday I maintained my bias that OANDA:XAUUSD correction could extend lower, with 3570 as the focus for the next swing low. I even sold rallies above 3640 zone with that scenario in mind.
However, after the CPI release, Gold dipped to 3620 zone but quickly recovered. That prompted me to lock in a modest 100 pips gain rather than fight the market.
A wise move in hindsight, since Gold is now back testing the 3650+ resistance zone.
So, is the correction finished?
➡️ Most probably, yes.
Here’s why:
• Bulls are defending the 3620 zone, stepping in strongly on dips.
• The chart is shaping into a rectangle, typically a continuation pattern, which suggests consolidation before trend resumption.
• Momentum is aligning again with the broader bullish trend.
Trading Plan:
• As long as 3620 holds, my strategy shifts to buying dips instead of selling rallies.
• A break above 3660 would open the path for continuation, with 3700 as the next bullish milestone.
The market has spoken – the correction seems to be losing steam, and the trend is ready to reassert itself. 🚀
GOLD → Retest 3620 - 3600 (imbalance zones) on the uptrendFX:XAUUSD is consolidating ahead of important news. The market is currently testing support, but the bullish pattern remains intact despite the intraday correction.
Gold is trading near $3650 in anticipation of US inflation data (CPI), which will determine the further trend. So far, the metal is consolidating below a record high of $3675.
High CPI data: will strengthen the dollar and weaken gold (bets on Fed easing will decline).
Low data: will push gold to new highs (the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts will be confirmed).
At the moment, the probability of a rate cut on September 17 is 92% (25 bps), with an 8% chance of 50 bps.
Technically, the chart is forming a consolidation against the backdrop of a bullish trend, the market is testing support, and if the bulls hold their ground in the key zone, traders may return to buying.
Resistance levels: 3638, 3649, 3657
Support levels: 3620, 3607, 3600
There is a battle for the 3620 zone. Consolidation above this zone will confirm bullish strength; otherwise, we can expect a deeper correction to the 3607-3600 zone to retest the imbalance area before further growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
CURRENT CONTEXT📌 CURRENT CONTEXT
- Gold price is now moving around 3640–3650, after bouncing strongly from the Demand Zone 3620–3625.
- The uptrend line is still intact, showing that the Higher High – Higher Low structure continues.
- Volume Profile shows VAH 3635 and POC 3629 still provide support below, while the Supply Zone 3668–3670 is the key resistance target.
🎯 TRADING SCENARIOS (FOLLOWING CURRENT PRICE)
🔹 SCENARIO 1 – BUY RETEST
Entry: 3635–3637 (previous VAH + trendline + volume support)
SL: Below 3620
TP: 3668–3670 (Supply Zone)
Conditions:
Price pulls back slightly but does not break the trendline
Bullish Engulfing or Pin Bar on M15/M30 at VAH zone
Low volume on pullback, strong volume when price bounces
🟢 This is a trend-following scenario, safer according to System X.
🔹 SCENARIO 2 – BUY BREAKOUT
Entry: When H1 candle closes above 3655–3658 with strong breakout volume
SL: Below breakout candle
TP: 3670–3675
Conditions:
Breaks out of the 3645–3655 consolidation zone
Breakout confirmed by high volume (large candle, strong volume)
🟢 For momentum traders, but requires clear confirmation.
🔹 SCENARIO 3 – SELL REACTION (LIMIT AT SUPPLY)
Entry: 3668–3670 (Supply Zone)
SL: Above 3675
TP: 3635–3638
Conditions:
Price quickly touches supply zone without strong breakout volume
Reversal signal appears (Bearish Pin Bar / Engulfing on M15/H1)
RSI overbought / short-term divergence
🔴 A reaction scenario, higher risk, SL must be tight.
🔹 SCENARIO 4 – SELL ON TRENDLINE BREAK
Entry: When price breaks 3620 + uptrend line
SL: Above 3630
TP: 3590 – 3570
Conditions:
Break of uptrend line + H1 candle closes below support
Strong selling volume pushing down
Clear reversal momentum
🔴 Short-term trend reversal scenario, volume needs to be monitored carefully.
Gold Analysis using ATAI Volume Pressure AnalyzerIntroduction:
In this analysis, we use the ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer indicator , which is based on the logic of separating buy/sell volume. The indicator retrieves volume data from a lower timeframe and reconstructs it on the host timeframe. This is achieved using the internal function, TradingView/ta/10 → tvta.requestUpAndDownVolume(lowerTF) , which extracts Up Volume, Down Volume, and Delta from the selected lower timeframe, enabling aggregation and evaluation of market pressure. One-tick data provides the highest precision but is limited in historical coverage; conversely, higher timeframes provide more historical depth but with relative accuracy.
In this daily chart, to calculate 20-period volume averages, the lowest timeframe that both preserved relative accuracy and provided sufficient historical data for 20 candles was 30 seconds , which was selected. This choice is reflected in the corresponding rows of the left and right columns of the HUD panel. It should be noted that in the gold market, the actual traded contract volume is not centrally available; therefore, the volume used in this method is based on tick volume (the count of price changes within each bar) . This serves as a proxy for activity and order flow intensity rather than absolute turnover. Accordingly, aggregates and deltas are interpreted on a relative basis and used to identify acceleration, volume spikes, and breakouts alongside price structure.
Trendlines and Market Direction
Beyond volume-based calculations, the indicator also visualizes directional bias through adaptive trendlines. The dotted orange and turquoise lines are drawn from successive pivot highs and lows over a 50-bar window, effectively capturing the slope of price movement. In the chart, these diagonals clearly reveal the transition: price has broken out of a mid-range accumulation zone and established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, confirming a structural uptrend.
Complementing this, the blue horizontal line marks the base of the prior accumulation (support), while the red line highlights the resistance level at the top. The breakout above this framework, supported by bullish volume ratios shown in the HUD, validates that the market has shifted from neutrality into a sustained upward trend.
Labels and Market Conditions
The labels displayed on the chart — such as Accum, Breakout ↑, Sharp ↑, and Bull Trap Risk — are derived from explicit quantitative rules inside the indicator. These rules combine price levels, buy/sell volume deltas, and moving aggregates. Below, each label is explained with both its coding logic and its mathematical interpretation in plain language.
Accum (Accumulation)
Logic: |Δ| < ε ∧ Var(ΣV) → min
Meaning: The difference between buy and sell volume (Δ) is close to zero, and the variance of total volume ΣV is minimal over the chosen window. In simple terms, this marks a balanced market where buyers and sellers are matched, forming a neutral accumulation zone.
Breakout ↑
Logic: Pt > max(Pacc) ∧ Δ > 0 ∧ ΣV20 ↑
Meaning: The closing price Pt breaks above the maximum price of the accumulation zone (Pacc), while buy volume is greater than sell volume (Δ > 0), and the 20-bar aggregate volume ΣV20 is increasing. In simple terms, this confirms that buyers dominate and the market is breaking upward with sufficient volume support.
Sharp ↑
Logic: ΔP / Δt > θ
Meaning: The slope of price change (ΔP per unit time) exceeds a defined threshold θ. In simple terms, this indicates an accelerated move upward — a breakout with unusually strong momentum.
Bull Trap Risk
Logic: Pt < Pbreakout ∧ Δ ↓ ∧ ΣV20 ↓
Meaning: After an initial breakout, the price Pt falls back below the breakout level, while buy volume weakens (Δ decreases) and the 20-bar aggregate volume ΣV20 declines. In simple terms, this signals that the breakout has lost support and may have trapped buyers — hence the label Bull Trap Risk.
Trendlines and Guidance
The dotted trendlines are constructed from the slope of price and aligned with recent pivot highs (HH) and lows (LL). Mathematically, the slope is defined as:
m = (P_pivot2 − P_pivot1) / (t2 − t1)
where P_pivot are the price levels at successive pivots, and t are their bar indices. A positive slope (m > 0) indicates an upward trend, while m < 0 indicates a downward trend.
In this chart, the slope of the mid-band is clearly positive, and the label HH1 is printed at the breakout of the upper boundary. This confirms that the market has transitioned out of a ranging phase and into a structural uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows.
Horizontal Lines
The horizontal guidance lines (support and resistance) are calculated from the extremes over the last N = 50 bars:
S = min(P_t), R = max(P_t) for t ∈
The blue line marks support at the lowest low, and the red line marks resistance at the highest high. Together, these dynamic references highlight where order flow has historically concentrated and provide anchors for interpreting future price reactions.
Each of these labels therefore reflects a mathematical condition expressed both in code and in statistical terms. Together they describe a sequence of phases: balanced accumulation, directional breakout, acceleration, and potential failure traps. This structured approach translates raw volume and price data into actionable signals.
Conclusion: XAUUSD Market Outlook
The recent chart action combines signals from the ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer with a secondary tool, the 20-period Linear Regression channel. This multi-tool perspective highlights the importance of cross-validation in market analysis.
Key Observations
- Volume Pressure Analyzer Signals: After a strong breakout and sharp upward momentum, the indicator has now triggered the label Bull Trap Risk . This label reflects weakening buy-side dominance, declining delta values, and a potential failure of the breakout to sustain order-flow support.
- Linear Regression (20-period): The regression channel illustrates a clear ascending path starting from the former accumulation zone. The latest red candle has closed outside the channel to the downside, confirming a loss of alignment with the prior uptrend.
- Structural Divergence: The combination of volume weakness (as flagged by VPRC) and structural channel break creates a divergence. Price remains elevated but lacks the necessary buy-side reinforcement, raising the probability of a correction or a full trend reversal.
Interpretation
This scenario indicates a transition risk: from a sharp bullish phase into either a corrective pullback or a potential distribution phase. The decisive factor remains the behavior of buyers and sellers in the next candles — whether buyers can reclaim the channel or sellers consolidate control.
Disclaimer
This XAUUSD analysis has been conducted using the ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer indicator in conjunction with the supporting Linear Regression (20-period) tool. It does not constitute any form of financial advice regarding buying, selling, or holding positions. The analysis solely illustrates the dynamics of buyer and seller behavior in the market.
XAUUSD Intraday Roadmap (15m Strategy)This intraday plan for Gold (XAUUSD) on the 15m timeframe combines supply/demand levels, a no-trade chop zone (3658–3668), and a simple bullish/bearish playbook.
📈 Bullish Setup
Trigger: 15m close ≥ 3688
Entry: ~3690
SL: 3674.89
TP1: 3703.02 | TP2: 3707.58
📉 Bearish Setup
Trigger: 15m close ≤ 3646
Entry: ~3644
SL: 3660
TP1: 3638.06 | TP2: 3626.70
🔎 Usage
Trade only on 15m timeframe
Best during London & New York sessions
Avoid chop range (3658–3668)
Confirm entries with candlestick momentum
⚠️ Risk Note
Risk ≤1–2% per trade. Intraday moves are volatile, especially around news — wait for re-tests after spikes.
✅ Summary
Above 3688 = Bull bias
Below 3646 = Bear bias
Inside 3658–3668 = No trade
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational only, not financial advice.
XAUUSD--LONGAs you can see from the daily chart embedded in this chart(which I published last week, also I added below), redlined ascending channels upper side was resistant and price couldnt break through.this week it will try again. it seems possibility to break through much higher.
--tp and entry levels are as shown on chart
FOMC XAUUSD: Time to hold super SELL before FOMC🟡 XAUUSD Daily Trading Plan – Ahead of FOMC
📊 Market Context
Gold (XAUUSD) has recently broken out of its accumulation/manipulation zone and is currently trading around 3,684–3,690.
Market is in bullish structure after a Change of Character (CHoCH) followed by a Break of Structure (BOS).
However, imbalances remain below current price, suggesting a potential retracement before continuation.
Liquidity pools are forming above 3,721–3,725, creating the risk of false breakouts (liquidity traps) near FOMC.
🔎 Technical Analysis (SMC Perspective)
Structure: Bullish bias on H1/H4, confirmed by higher highs and BOS.
Imbalance Zone: 3,674 → 3,664 (likely to be revisited).
Liquidity Pools:
Buy-side liquidity at 3,721–3,725 (Sell Zone).
Sell-side liquidity around 3,626–3,624 (Equal Low Zone).
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance / Sell Zone:
3,686.88 (immediate resistance)
3,721–3,725 (Liquidity Sell Zone)
Support / Buy Zones:
3,668 (Front End Buy – imbalance retest)
3,656–3,654 (Back End CP Buy Zone)
3,626–3,624 (Equal Low Liquidity Zone)
✅ Priority Scenario – BUY
Entry 1
BUY Limit: 3,668 (Front End Zone – imbalance retest)
SL: 3,661
TP: 3,690 → 3,700 → 3,721
Entry 2
BUY Limit: 3,656 – 3,654 (Back End CP Buy Zone)
SL: 3,648
TP: 3,690 → 3,700 → 3,721
Entry 3
BUY Limit: 3,626 – 3,624 (Equal Low Liquidity)
SL: 3,618
TP: 3,690 → 3,700 → 3,721
🔻 Alternative Scenario – SELL (Counter-trade)
If price reaches 3,721–3,725 (Liquidity Zone) before retesting lower buy zones → watch for rejection patterns.
SELL if bearish confirmation appears.
SL: 3,730
TP: 3,698 → 3,690 → 3,676
⚠️ Risk Management & Notes
Expect high volatility during FOMC – traps around liquidity zones are likely.
Reduce lot size before news release to mitigate risk.
Stick to confirmation entries (avoid blind buys/sells).
Main directional bias: Bullish as long as 3,648 holds.
Which way for Gold after the Fed rate cut 25 bps ?/50 bsp?With retail sales coming in a bit hotter than expected, I guess that the Fed chair will stick to a quarter-point, or 25 basis point, reduction from the current target range of 4.25%-4.5%. will see a more hawkish than Dovish Fed as they think inflation is still sticky. Fed Angle: If Powell goes with a 25bps cut, then gold will likely rally for a bit, then likely consolidate, possibly with a small pullback, since some of it is already priced in. So while the rate decision is pretty much in the bag, what happens from there is anybody’s guess. So my setup will be simple
Bearish Scenario (Fed only cuts 25bps or stays hawkish) will see a fake buy @3,720, then gold will drop after the dust settles to this zone
Entry: After Gold breaks below 3,680.
Targets:
TP1: 3,650 unmitigated liquidity
Stop-Loss: 3,800 (above breakout fakeout zone).
Bullish Scenario (Fed goes 50bps cut, as a more dovish tone )
Entry: Buy above 3,700–3,710 (after confirmation candle closes).
Targets:
TP1: 3,770
TP2: 3,850
TP3: 3,900
Stop-Loss: 3,680
Analysis of the Most Likely Future Gold Price TrendAnalysis of the Most Likely Future Gold Price Trend
Watch for fluctuations above $3,600.
Based on the combination of expected rate cuts and hawkish dot plot guidance, the gold market logic has shifted:
Short-term trend:
Technical adjustments and downward volatility.
The market needs to digest the impact of a hawkish stance and previous heavy profit-taking.
The most likely trend for gold prices is a repeated struggle around the $3,600 mark.
If $3,600 is effectively broken, gold prices will fall further to $3,570-3,580 (50-day moving average) for support, and may even test $3,550.
A rebound would be an opportunity to short on rallies, not the start of a trend reversal.
The main resistance level for the rebound is around $3,620.
Summary: The Fed's tough rate cuts have dealt a heavy blow to gold bulls. The short-term technical outlook has turned bearish, and gold prices are entering a correction.
In terms of operations, we should shift from the previous "buy on dips" approach to "short on rebounds" and pay close attention to the rise and fall of the key level of $3,600.
Strategic Long-Term Perspective on GoldGold has delivered a strong bullish cycle after weeks of accumulation. The past phase showed a contracting range where liquidity was built up and multiple structural shifts occurred, signaling preparation for expansion. Once price broke out of that range in late August, momentum accelerated, leading to a clean and sustained rally into September.
The recent move highlights how market flow continues to favor the upside, with each correction acting as a re-accumulation zone rather than a trend reversal. Institutional order flow remains visible, supporting higher valuations as price respects bullish market structure.
Currently, gold is stabilizing after the sharp leg upward. This pause suggests a phase of healthy consolidation, likely absorbing liquidity before attempting the next impulsive wave higher. Overall sentiment remains constructive, with bullish continuation the dominant narrative unless a major structural shift occurs.
XAU Today's Outlook 17-09-25Hey Guys, A Brand New Day, Brand New Analysis.
BUY/SELL SCENARIOS:
BUYS:
1)Retest the 1h Bullish OB at the 3691.15 level.
2) Create a 3/5m Bullish CHoCH with a body candle close (with a FVG).
3) Retest the 3/5m Bullish CHoCH level to capitalize on BUYS towards the 3710.00 level.
SELLS:
1) Body candle close below the 3686.45 level.
2) Retest the failed 1h Bullish OB at the 3686.45 level.
3)Create a 3/5m Bearish Engulfing candle to capitalize on SELLS towards the 3664.35 level
Trade Smart, Trade according plan!!
Is gold poised for a major breakthrough this week?
Currently, gold prices are fluctuating at high levels. Heightened geopolitical tensions have enhanced its safe-haven appeal. A weaker dollar and falling US Treasury yields are the primary drivers of gold's gains. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting approaching, the market tussle between bulls and bears will intensify. Where there's volatility, there's opportunity.
Market Conditions: Gold prices have gradually broken through the 3690 high. After several days of consolidation at the high, bulls have launched another strong attack, seemingly targeting 3700. The gold market is currently at a critical cycle and juncture, and I believe both bulls and bears have opportunities in the short term.
Gold Trading Strategy: I believe we can short gold around 3698, while buying on a pullback to around 3680.
As always, we will provide regular updates this week and share our ideas and strategies for managing active trading. Thank you for your likes, comments, and attention. We appreciate it!
GOLD GPS"If the price breaks above 3700 and consolidates (closes sustainably above this level), wait for a confirmed buying signal near this zone. Otherwise, if price rejects 3700, watch for sell confirmations at 3680-3690. The 3640 level is a key resistance zone to monitor closely. However, if this level is sharply broken, we may see a decline toward 3620, where a potential buying opportunity could emerge."
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 17, 2025
Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum is currently rising. As of today, the upward move has lasted for 3–4 daily candles. Therefore, in the next 1–2 days, momentum is likely to enter the overbought zone.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is in the oversold area and starting to reverse. Once confirmed, we can expect at least 4–5 bullish H4 candles.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is already in the oversold zone and has turned upward, suggesting an immediate short-term rally.
Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe: Price is moving within black wave v. Since black wave iii was extended, black wave v is likely to be approximately equal in length to black wave i.
• H4 timeframe: Inside black wave v, we expect a 5-wave green structure to form. Currently, green wave 1 seems to have completed, and price is correcting within green wave 2.
• H1 timeframe: Within green wave 1, a 5-wave black structure has been completed. Price is now developing a corrective black ABC pattern.
Target zones for black wave C:
• Target 1: 3675
• Target 2: 3657
Note: Wave 2 usually retraces to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of wave 1, which coincides with the 3657 zone. This is the key level to consider for a buy setup.
Trading Plan
• Buy Zone: 3658 – 3655
• Stop Loss: 3645
• Take Profit (TP1): 3677
Is Gold’s Bearish Move About to Unfold?Although this setup was kept private, this is how it started from the very beginning:
My previous analysis on gold has already played out as expected, with the first small bearish correction on wave C right after completing a clean 5-wave move into new all-time highs above $3670.
That confirmed the structure, and now the chart appears to be setting up for a bigger correction. The earlier abc pattern formed the A leg, we are now finalizing wave B, and soon wave C may be ready to unfold to the downside.
My primary expectation is for price to hit the $3673 level, which is my main target for this trade. I am aiming for a clean 1 ATR move into that target, while protecting the position with a 2 ATR stop loss placed slightly above the all-time high. Beyond that, the market might push further down into the $3650–60 and $3600–25 zones, and there is also a high probability of tagging the 23.6% retracement at $3612. A deeper retracement to the 38.2% level at $3555 (last seen from the $3300 area) is still possible in the bigger picture, but that is not my current focus.
For entry reasons, I rely on a full confluence package: Elliott Waves, major resistance levels, trendline breaks on the chart, as well as trend breaks on RSI and MACD. Importantly, there is also a MACD divergence confirming weakening momentum at the highs, which adds strong weight to the bearish case.
From a broader perspective, the consolidation between April and September 2025 already reached its target with the completion of the 5th Elliott Wave at the all-time high, which also marks my main resistance level in this play.
To be clear, my trading focus is only on the $3673 target and the 1 ATR move into it. The rest of the deeper levels and retracement scenarios are part of my broader thought process, but not active trade objectives. Since this is a strong move pushing into all-time highs, I am definitely not trading against the trend — but even within strong bullish moves, there are often opportunities for small shorts at high-probability levels.
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only. Please do not place trades solely based on this setup.