Gold longGold is looking good for long.
Sl might hit, but i m going to take the risk here because it is worth i.
If we sweep PDL i will reconsider entering longs.
Trade ideas
Gold Trade Set Up Oct 29 2025Price shifted to bullish structure, closing above 1h swing high and making HL/HH on all smaller time frames so i want to see a sweep of 15m SSL and/or tap into 15m demand followed by a 5m up close candle to target EQH above
SOME INSIGHT I POSTED MONDAY YOU CAN GO THROUGH
SOME INSIGHT I POSTED MONDAY YOU CAN GO THROUGH
Gold showed a buy signal last Thursday because it was supposed to sell and it failed, that is a buy signal there but it comes with technicalities, so immediately i saw it, i posted buy around 4090 and i guess price retraced down to 4091.7 and started buying and hit around 4140 and i thought it would buy more( but it was a buy to create a lower high which start like a major buy until it fails to move above a zone), but it closed somewhere around 4130 and after analyzing Thursday evening i realized, it will buy friday, but it would sell to test a major zone before the buy start with momentum so signaled a sell first before the buy Thursday,
On Friday midnight to dawn i gave a sell to somewhere 4050 and i gave a buy around morning time and was firm on that and entry was at 4065-60 sl was at 4040, and CPI drops in the afternoon , i thought what if CPI pushes it below 4040 with a sharp move before the buy start because i strongly believed it will buy but CPI is a dangerous news.
Immediately CPI dropped it moved up so I went to check the CPI and saw that m/m data was lower than expected and previous which is disinflation short term and therefore a possible bearish gold short term and y/y CPI was higher than previous which is inflationary long term and therefore a bullish gold after the short term sells, and so i anticipated the sells especially after price failed to close above 4130 but i still needed a confirmation and an hour or two after markets opened yesternight it signaled sells and thus today sells.
So there is a possible heavy buy lately by early next month which will be driving by the y/y CPI and an already priced in Fed's rate cut this Wednesday and a higher time frame buy , i don't trade only based on fundamentals, i check to see if they will lead to a change of trend and to be alert but my trades and analysis are pure price action/ technical analysis and no indicator , my brain and eyes always work together to determine price next possible move and not any indicator
Gold Outlook Ahead of FOMC: Dovish Fed Could Push Prices HigherGold Outlook Ahead of FOMC: Dovish Fed Could Push Prices Higher
As the market eyes tonight’s FOMC decision, volatility in Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to spike. Traders are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, from 4.00% to 3.75%, making the Fed’s tone a key determinant for the USD and Gold direction.
1️⃣ Fundamental Outlook
Rate Cut / Dovish Tone: Likely to weaken the USD, supporting a bullish move in Gold.
No Cut / Hawkish Tone: Strengthens USD, which may trigger a Gold correction.
Recent data shows softer inflation and slowing job growth, tipping the scales toward a dovish outcome. This aligns with a short-term bullish bias for Gold.
2️⃣ Technical Overview (H1–H4)
Gold is currently in a descending channel—a short-term correction within a larger bullish structure. Key levels to watch:
Type Price Comment
Resistance $4,078–$4,100 Channel top & supply zone
Intraday Resistance $4,050 Potential liquidity grab area
Support $3,947 Intraday demand zone
Major Support $3,874–$3,878 Monthly SMC demand block
Liquidity Zone $4,005 Equal highs area pre-FOMC
The monthly support at $3,874–$3,878 has been strongly defended, indicating institutional buying interest.
3️⃣ Price Action & SMC Bias
From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective:
A sweep below $3,880 created a strong reversal block, signaling accumulation by institutions.
The market is now in a reaccumulation phase, targeting premium levels for liquidity grabs before the FOMC.
Order Blocks to Watch:
Bullish OB: $3,875–$3,900
Bearish OB: $4,078–$4,100
Price may test above $4,050 to collect stop orders, then react sharply based on the FOMC outcome.
4️⃣ Trading Plan (Scenario-Based)
🟢 Bullish Case (Rate Cut / Dovish Fed):
Entry: Break & close above $4,050
SL: Below $4,020
TP1: $4,078 | TP2: $4,135 | TP3: $4,249
SMC View: Break above channel → imbalance fill toward $4,135–$4,250
🔴 Bearish Case (No Cut / Hawkish Fed):
Entry: Rejection from $4,050–$4,078 zone
SL: Above $4,110
TP1: $3,947 | TP2: $3,874 | TP3: $3,820
SMC View: Premium zone manipulation → continuation of bearish channel correction
5️⃣ Strategic Summary
Bias Setup Action
Short-term Bullish if rate cut confirmed Wait for breakout above $4,050
Medium-term Consolidation until FOMC volatility clears Trade reaction, not anticipation
Long-term Still bullish as long as $3,874 holds Potential expansion toward $4,249+ in November
Conclusion:
Gold traders should monitor the $4,050 breakout zone for clues. A dovish Fed could propel Gold toward $4,249, while a hawkish surprise may see it revisit $3,874. Reacting to price action post-FOMC is key—anticipation could be risky.
Gold longGold made a steep pullback from that all time high, time to take some profits and aggregate more liquidity. Currently we're seeing a strong rejection, invalidating the latest bearish impulse.
With the FEDs interests rates coming up I have no doubt that the price of gold will be going up again heading towards a new ATH.
XAUUSD | Gold to drop 2000PIPS, where is the best sell zone?🔍 Market Context
After breaking the medium-term uptrend structure at the main Trendline , gold has formed a clear sequence of Lower High – Equal Low (EqL) , indicating a phase shift from bullish to bearish.
Currently, the price is fluctuating around the 3,960–3,970 USD zone – this is a temporary liquidity accumulation area before heading up to retest the resistance at 4,015–4,050 USD , which was previously a Demand Zone now turned into a Supply Zone .
If a strong bearish reaction occurs here, it is highly likely that the price will extend its decline towards the Order Block 3,945–3,960 USD zone, or even deeper to the Premium Zone 3,884 USD .
💎 Key Technical Structure
Main Trendline: broken, confirming a structure change (ChoCH).
Resistance Zone: 4,010–4,015 → quick reaction resistance.
Supply Zone: 4,043–4,060 → strong technical pullback zone.
Premium Zone: 3,884–3,900 → discount zone, potential temporary bottom.
📈 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ SELL Zone 1 – Scalp Reaction at Resistance Zone
Entry: 4,010 – 4,015
SL: 4,025
Take Profit : 4,005 - 3,995 - 3,975 - 3,965 - Open
➡️ Quick scalp reaction at nearby resistance – suitable for London/NY session trading.
2️⃣ SELL Zone 2 – Major Retest at Supply Zone
Entry: 4,043 – 4,060
SL: 4,065
Take Profit : 4,050 - 4,040 - 4,030 - 4,020 - 4,010/Open
➡️ Main setup – retest of supply zone confluencing with broken trendline, high probability if strong rejection on H1/H4.
3️⃣ SELL Continuation – Break & Retest below 3,945 USD
Entry: 3,945 – 3,950
SL: 3,965
TP: 3,884
➡️ Setup breaks EqL bottom confirming downtrend continuation, targeting Premium Zone.
4️⃣ BUY Setup – Reversal at Premium Zone 3,900 USD
Entry: 3,900
SL: 3,880
TP1: 3,910 - 3,920 - 3,930 - 3,940 - 3,950/Open
✅ Condition:
Only buy when a strong reaction candle appears (long-tail rejection / ChoCH bullish on M15–H1).
➡️ This is the final discount zone before major capital can return to the market – technical reversal setup, low risk / high reward.
⚠️ Risk Management
Prioritize SELL at supply zones, BUY at Premium – avoid trading mid-range.
Reduce volume in scalp setup (Sell 1).
If price closes above 4,070 → short-term downtrend is invalidated.
💬 Conclusion
Gold remains under short-term bearish pressure, however, the 3,884–3,900 USD zone could act as strong support.
The suitable strategy is to capitalize on the two resistance zones for Selling and observe technical Buying at the Premium bottom.
👉 Comprehensive Strategy:
Sell 4,010–4,015 | SL 4,025 | TP 4,005 → 3,965 🎯
Sell 4,043–4,060 | SL 4,065 | TP 4,050 → 4,010 🎯
Buy 3,900 | SL 3,880 | TP 3,910 → 3,950 🎯
🔥 “Trade with patience, react at precision zones — that’s how consistency is built.”
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Update: 28/10/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
XAUUSD - Buy to sell move :)I am currently anticipating a buy to sell move on Gold. Overall, Gold is in solid bullish momentum and over the last week and a half, price has been in a correctional phase. Based on the 4H time frame price has respected and rejected my demand zone, and I see price pushing to 4035 which is a 61.8% FIB level before rejecting that level and pulling back to 3886 and continuing in bullish momentum. 🚀
Whats your outlook? 🥶
15 minute structure updateThe sellers' target for this time frame has been touched.
In the meantime, the 4051 liquidity level has been built, which will be a return to the liquidity hunt and a pullback to the specified support areas, which will be the selling position for lower targets and liquidity. In the 1-hour time frame, the current bottom has sellers' liquidity, so the sellers will return the price to this bottom.
Analysis link:
XAUUSD/GOLD SELL LIMIT PROJECTION 27.10.25Pattern Context
There’s a descending triangle or M-pattern that has been broken to the downside.
Labels such as “BREAKED M PATTERN NECKLINE HERE” and “BREAKED TRIANGLE PATTERN” indicate bearish structure.
Trade Setup
The chart projects a sell limit order in the region around 4,062–4,083 (highlighted red zone).
Stop loss is above the recent high — around 4,083.185.
Entry appears to be at the retest zone near 4,062.189 (“BREAKER ZONE RETEST & SELL”).
The target (take-profit area) points toward temporary support at approximately 4,031.150, suggesting a bearish continuation.
Trend Lines
A broken uptrend line and triangle breakout support the short bias.
The blue uptrend line and black triangle structure confirm the confluence zone where the retest and rejection may occur.
Summary of Bias
Direction: Bearish (Sell setup).
Confirmation: Triangle & M-pattern breakdown, retest expected.
Risk Management: Stop above 4,083; target near 4,031 (risk-reward ratio ≈ 1:2 depending on entry).
XAUUSD long Setup - Targeting 4005
ong entry triggered on XAUUSD following a bullish rejection from the 3996 support level. Managing risk with a logical stop loss below this key zone. Caution advised due to potential volatility from the upcoming Trump speech.
XAUUSD Gold testing support, correction possibleAfter a strong rally, gold entered a correction phase. Price broke the ascending channel and now trades around 4030–4050. The chart structure suggests a potential retest near 4070–4090 before continuation to 3960 (Target 1) and 3856 (Target 2).
CCI confirms weak buying momentum and volume profile shows high liquidity zones above current price — favoring a pullback.
Investors are taking profits after gold’s rally amid softer Fed outlook and possible dollar rebound. While long-term fundamentals stay bullish, short-term correction looks likely.
Sell setup from 4070–4090 zone with targets 3960 and 3856, stop 4110.
Valid while price remains below 4110.
Gold CompressionGold has made a strong move in 2025, with a high recently of 4381.44.
We can see a consolidation of price following the Tariff Tantrum from April to August 2025, into an ascending triangle. This is reflected in the ATR contracting , momentum moving to its base and RSI hovering around the midlevel.
Following this base, a strong impulse propels price over 1000 USD in a matter of weeks. The RSI sits perpetually in the Oversold region and the ATR more than doubles.
The parabolic move ended with a 5 sigma day on Tuesday as the Bears stepped in. The remainder of the week sees Gold staying above the 4000 level.
Where from here ?
The market can breath out by either expending price or time. Given the fundamental background of Dollar Debasement, Dedollarization, Gold Consumption by Central Banks and Brics initiatives, it is likely Gold moves into consolidation from here into early 2026.
Support - offered by the 50 MAV and Fib 50-61.8 levels.
Target - 5000 beyond Q1 2026.
Weekly Analysis on GoldFor next week i will hold my buy position and modify it once it runs in profits. If it get stop out then i will wait for further information from the candles until it shows a possible bullish run again. I am looking for buys since gold is still in a strong bullish trend. If the market shows a chance for taking a sell going to weekly fib zone then i will execute a trade with lesser risk and ride the move to the weekly fib zone.
Hey everyone! Great to see you again — let’s talk about XAUUSD!From a fundamental perspective, gold has been holding its ground pretty well, even as the US dollar regained some strength following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments earlier this week. Despite the short-term USD recovery, overall sentiment around gold remains supported by lingering uncertainty in global markets.
On the technical side, gold recently found solid support around the $3,900 zone — a key psychological level where buyers have stepped back in. Since then, price action has shown clear signs of strength, breaking back above short-term resistance levels and reclaiming structure. The EMA 34 is now curling upward toward the EMA 89, hinting at a potential bullish crossover in the making.
With that shift in momentum, I’m now watching for a continued move higher toward the $4,080 area — a level that lines up nicely with the next major resistance zone on the 4H chart.
💡 My view: As long as gold holds above $3,900, the path of least resistance looks to be to the upside. A clean break and close above $4,050 could open the door for a test of $4,080 in the coming sessions
Latest Gold Price Trends and Trading Strategies:
I. Core View
After a consecutive decline, spot gold found support at the 3900 USD level and staged a mild technical rebound. However, due to Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks dampening market expectations for aggressive rate cuts, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and Treasury yields climbed, leaving gold bulls with weak momentum and unable to effectively reclaim the psychological 4000 USD mark. In the short term, the bearish trend remains dominant, but structural factors such as central bank gold purchases provide long-term bottom support for gold prices.
II. Market Drivers Analysis
Key Pressures (Bearish):
Fed's Hawkish Stance: Powell explicitly stated that "a December rate cut is far from a done deal," causing a sharp drop in market expectations for rate cuts (probability fell from 70% to 45%).
Rising Treasury Yields and a Stronger Dollar: Higher rate expectations pushed up Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Technical Resistance: Strong resistance formed around 4030 USD, where bulls faced selling pressure.
Key Supports (Bullish):
Sustained Central Bank Purchases: Strategic allocations to gold by central banks (price-insensitive buying) provide solid bottom support for the market, particularly around 3900 USD.
Long-Term Fund Inflows: Record quarterly inflows into gold ETFs indicate that institutional and high-net-worth investors are reallocating to gold as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties.
Key Technical Support: The 3900-3885 USD zone is currently a critical support area.
III. Technical Analysis
Trend: The short-term bearish trend remains unchanged, with the overall pattern leaning weak and range-bound.
Key Resistance: The 3985-4000 USD area, followed by the strong resistance band at 4015-4020 USD.
Key Support: The 3900-3885 USD zone. A break below this could open further downside.
Trading Approach: Given the bearish trend and strong resistance above, short-term trading should focus on selling on rallies, with light long positions considered near key support levels to capture rebounds.
IV. Specific Trading Strategy Reference
Short Strategy (Primary Approach):
Entry Zone: When gold rallies to the 4015 - 4020 USD area, consider entering short positions in batches.
Stop Loss: Set above 4030 USD (approximately 8-10 USD).
Target Levels: Primary target at 3980 - 3950 USD. If broken, further downside to 3915 USD is possible.
Long Strategy (Secondary Approach, for Rebound Plays):
Entry Zone: When gold retraces to the 3910 - 3920 USD area, consider entering long positions in batches.
Stop Loss: Set below 3900 USD (approximately 8-10 USD).
Target Levels: Primary target at 3970 - 4000 USD. A strong breakout could extend gains to 4015 USD.
V. Risk Warning and Trading Discipline
Stay Updated: The market is dominated by Fed policy expectations, and sentiment can shift rapidly. Closely monitor U.S. economic data and speeches from Fed officials.
Strict Risk Control: Always set stop losses and manage position sizes carefully. Avoid heavy positions, especially in the current volatile market. Do not hold losing positions hoping for a reversal.
Flexibility: If gold breaks above 4030 USD or below 3885 USD, reassess the current trend and adjust trading strategies accordingly.
XAU/USD Update 2 Buying OpportunityNext move on the way. Focus on proper risk management & stay disciplined. Wishing you successful trades..!
Key Reason:
1. Unmitigated demand order flow along with proper BOS.
2. BISI still in pending.
3. If buyers remain strong. Then we'll see pump in gold price. High probability setup for buying.
Confirmation is most important part. Let's see how it will work.
XAU/USD Update 1Next move on the way, focus on proper risk management & stay disciplined. Wishing you successful trades..!
Key Reason:
1. 1 hour supply area.
2. In smaller time frame we've IMB inside this supply area.
3. Confirmation is very important. Let's see how it will work.
Gold Trade Plan 30/10/2025Dear Traders,
The price is currently moving within a descending channel. As long as the trendline hasn’t been broken, the bearish and corrective trend will continue — I expect targets below 3900.
Regards,
Alireza!
THE SELL LOOKS INVALID It's time to close because it doesn't look favorable, likely to buy more so it's best to get out
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Gold Rebounds Ahead of FOMCPrice is respecting the analysis well — after testing the Deeper Support Zone (3944–3884), gold saw a strong rejection. Price has since rebounded and is now trading around 4017, showing signs of short-term recovery after several sessions of heavy downside pressure.
Gold has reclaimed the 4000 handle and moved back above the MA50, while also breaking the 1H structure to bullish. However, price still trades below the MA200, suggesting that short-term momentum has turned bullish.
For continuation, buyers need to secure a close above 4042, which could open the path toward 4095 and 4137.
On the downside, if price fails to hold above 3987, we could see another retest of 3944–3884, the same zone where buyers previously stepped in.
📌 Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4042
4095
4137
4178
Support:
3987
3944
3884
3820
🔎 Fundamental Focus:
All eyes are on the FOMC events later today, with the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, and Press Conference scheduled in the evening.
XAUUSD Bearish Short-Term, Bullish Longer-TermFundamental approach:
- Gold prices traded lower this week after setting fresh record highs earlier in Oct, pressured by profit-taking and cautious sentiment ahead of delayed US inflation data.
- Geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of further Fed easing continued to support underlying demand for safe havens in the longer term.
- US President Trump'sTrump's new sanctions on Russia and export restrictions toward China, alongside the prolonged US government shutdown, reinforced demand early in the week. At the same time, stabilization in trade rhetoric and rising yields curbed momentum later.
- However, a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields amid improved global risk appetite and optimism around an upcoming US. China dialogue also reduced safe-haven demand in the short term, especially with today's CPI, which is expected to rise.
Technical approach:
- Gold consolidated within the range of 4054-4113. The price is below the converging EMAs, indicating that a bearish momentum persists.
- If the XAUUSD breaches the support at 4054, the price may decline further toward the next support level at 3950.
- On the contrary, remaining above 4054 may prompt a retest of the upper range at 4143, confluenced with the EMA21.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
