XAUUSD – WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION OF UPTREND – TARGET 4050 💛 XAUUSD – WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION OF UPTREND – TARGET 4050 🎯
🌤 1. Overview
Hello everyone 💬
Gold today is still in a phase of hesitation – waiting for signals to confirm a new trend.
On the H2 chart, the price has broken the downtrend line and is retesting this line. The structure of “higher lows” indicates that buying power is gradually gaining the upper hand.
The previous peak around 4018 is currently the decisive point for the trend – if the price confirms a breakout above, the uptrend could extend towards the 4050 area.
Currently, the market is fluctuating within the range of 3964 – 4018, and needs to break out of this range to determine a clearer direction.
💹 2. ICT Perspective
📈 The price has broken the downtrend line and retested the structure on the H2 chart – an early signal for the potential formation of an uptrend.
🟣 The 3964–4018 area is a short-term liquidity accumulation zone before the price expands.
🔹 OB 4040–4042 coincides with significant resistance, suitable for short sell (scalp) orders if there is a strong reaction.
💫 When the price exceeds 4018, the uptrend structure will be confirmed and the expansion target could head towards 4050 – 4077.
🎯 3. Reference Trading Plan
💖 BUY Scenario (priority when confirmed)
Entry: above 4018 | SL: 4011
TP: 4025 – 4033 – 4050 – 4077
💢 Short SELL Scenario (scalping)
Entry: 4040–4042 | SL: 4046
TP: 4022 – 4015 – 3998
⚠️ 4. Important Notes
Clear confirmation is needed when breaking the 4018 area before entering a buy order.
If the price continues to fluctuate within the 3964–4018 range, trading should be limited.
Today is Friday, manage risk more strictly, prioritize accuracy in each order.
🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2
Gold is showing positive signals 💛
Be patient and wait for reactions around the 4018 area – this could be the start of a new uptrend if clearly confirmed.
Trade ideas
XAU/USD 06 November 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025.
Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380. 990.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
You will note how price remains contained in consolidation between a supply and demand range. The rest of my analysis and bias remains the same as bias date 29 October 2025.
As expected, price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,886.465.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
GOLD Smart Money Might Be Preparing for Bullish Structure ShiftGold (XAU/USD) is showing early signs that Smart Money may be shifting from a distribution phase into a short-term accumulation phase.
After a strong bearish leg marked by multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS), recent price behavior now suggests the potential formation of a Market Structure Shift (MSS) — an early indication that institutional flow could be changing direction.
💭 1️⃣ Market Structure – When the Market “Whispers” About Reversal
On the H1 timeframe, we can clearly observe a chain of consecutive BOSs since the 4,150 zone, but what’s intriguing is the reaction around 3,925 – 3,940.
Here, price failed to make new lower lows and began rejecting strongly — leaving several rejection wicks that reveal smart money absorption at discounted prices.
This area represents the discount zone of the current range — where institutions often collect liquidity from trapped sellers before pushing price toward premium levels for redistribution.
The latest Break of Market Structure (BMS) around 3,987 confirms that bearish momentum is weakening, and buyers may be starting to reclaim control in the short term.
🩶 2️⃣ Supply & Demand Zones – Footprints of Smart Money
Karina is currently watching three key zones shaping this market phase:
Demand Zones:
3,938 – 3,925: A strong demand base formed after the initial push upward — acting as a key support if price retraces.
3,986 – 3,988: A minor demand zone formed post-BMS, serving as a potential “reaccumulation point” for the next bullish leg.
Supply Zones:
4,111 – 4,149: Unmitigated Bearish Order Block from the previous decline — the most probable upside target for Smart Money in the current swing.
The projected SMC scenario: Smart Money accumulates at demand → builds liquidity → drives price into the upper supply zones.
🧭 3️⃣ Liquidity Context – Quiet but Purposeful Movement
Gold currently sits within a liquidity equilibrium — a transitional area where both buy- and sell-side liquidity coexist.
Below, 3,886 remains a pocket of sell-side liquidity, while above, large buy-side liquidity pools rest around 4,110 – 4,150.
Smart Money may first collect the remaining sell-side liquidity before triggering a strong upward displacement toward the upper supply zones — following the familiar pattern:
liquidity sweep → displacement → continuation.
🌙 4️⃣ Trade Scenario – Flow With Smart Money, Not Against It
As long as price holds above 3,938 – 3,987, the short-term bias for Karina is bullish.
If price retests these demand zones and forms bullish confirmations (e.g., bullish engulfing or clear order flow shift), it may set the stage for a push toward the 4,111 – 4,148 region.
Entry: 3,938 – 3,987
Stop Loss: 3,925
Take Profit: 4,111 – 4,148
This setup presents roughly a 1:4 R:R, consistent with a buy-side liquidity grab strategy under SMC principles.
🌷 5️⃣ Reflection – When the Market Moves in Silence
After an extended bearish phase, Gold now seems to be accumulating strength in quiet preparation.
This is not a loud reversal — it’s a subtle rebalancing of institutional flow.
To Karina, the market right now feels like a slow, gentle rhythm — calm, deliberate, and full of hidden intent. Sometimes, the key isn’t chasing volatility, but listening to the whispers of Smart Money in the silence of price action. 🌸
This analysis reflects Karina’s personal perspective and is not financial advice.
Do you see the same structure forming? Could this be the early stage of a bullish cycle, or just another liquidity grab? Let’s discuss below 💬
The US session is approaching, strategy update, please check.
Gold is relatively stable on the 4-hour chart, basically oscillating within a small range. The price encountered resistance near 4150 as we mentioned, pulling back to test the 4120 area. Currently, the price is repeatedly testing this level. Today, the key focus is on the 4150-60 resistance area. Before a breakout, it's better to short than to chase the price higher. The two most crucial support levels for gold are around 4120-15. If it holds above this level, gold will likely maintain a consolidation and upward trend today. For trading, you can gradually buy long positions in small batches above the support area. The US session is likely to see a breakout from this small range.
Now let's review our Asian and European session operations. We decisively bought long positions near 4120 at the open, successfully entering four positions in total, including both long and short positions, all of which were profitable. You can check our historical recommendations to verify their accuracy. Many friends don't understand why we placed short orders today when I previously stated the overall trend was upward. We've consistently emphasized against chasing rallies before resistance levels are broken. For example, during the Asian session, we accurately identified the resistance around 4145-55 and chose to short at that level, ultimately selling for a profit at 4126. Even in a bull market, prices don't rise indefinitely; after a surge, there will always be a pullback. Precise technical analysis is crucial, especially for short-term trading. We recommend shorting in batches at resistance levels, carefully managing positions to ensure profits, and going long at lower prices.
During the US session, we must seize every opportunity to buy on pullbacks. If you're unsure about executing trades precisely, try my method: first test the market with a small position, then add to the position during pullbacks. This way, you won't miss any opportunities. If you're truly unsure when, where, and how to operate, follow me and strictly adhere to my signals. This will make it easier to recover losses or double your profits!
Gold prices continue to rise, with a target price of $4200.Gold prices continue to rise, with a target price of $4200.
As shown in the 4h chart:
1: Gold prices remain strong.
2: The current resistance level is $4150.
3: Once $4150 is broken, gold prices will continue to rise, with the next target price range being $4200-$4300.
4: If the price experiences a significant drop near $4150, forming a structural correction, we can wait for the price to fall back to the $4060-$4080 range, forming a right-side bottom pattern, before continuing to go long.
November 11th, Intraday Trading Strategy:
Aggressive Strategy:
Buy (1): $4135-$4140
Buy (2): $4120-$4125
Stop Loss: $4115
Take Profit (1): $4160-$4180
Take Profit (2): $4200
Trade with the trend, allocating order proportions appropriately.
Conservative Strategy: Observe and wait for the market to fully test the resistance level near $4150 before making a decision. If the $4150 resistance level holds, wait for the price to retrace to the $4060-$4080 range before considering going long.
If the price breaks through $4150 directly, consider establishing a small long position, with a stop loss similar to the aggressive strategy.
I have already adopted an aggressive buying strategy.
Xauusd And GC1! Advanced manipulation During pairs like gc1!, we swept the 4124.6 low meanwhile on xauusd we didn’t. Since xauusd is the pair that shows higher accuracy of the pair the sweep on gc1!, mgc1! Are manipulation and created a liquidity pool that’s waiting to get taken out after taking out the accumulated range high. On the 1h timeframe we tapped into an imbalance then displaced internally since we formed a liquidity pool and formed an imbalance we’re likely going to change our trajectory to shorting the market and we might make an early reversal.
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - Effort to Breakout??? [11.10.2025]Hi guys, Anfibo's here!
XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan
Overall Picture:
OANDA:XAUUSD is currently trading at the upper boundary of its sideways H1 channel, a key decision point where market sentiment is being tested. This resistance zone has repeatedly acted as a ceiling for price during the current consolidation phase. The question now is whether this level will once again trigger a technical pullback, or if bullish momentum—supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty—will be strong enough to deliver a clean breakout and start a new impulsive leg upward. Price action today will be crucial in determining whether gold continues ranging or transitions into a breakout phase.
Trading Plan for Today:
>>> BUY ZONE:
(1) ENTRY: 4040 - 4050
SL: 4030
TP: 4135 – 4150 - 4200
(2) ENTRY: 4070 - 4080 (small vol)
SL: 4065
TP: 4135 – 4150 - 4200
Risk Management:
- Stick to small-to-medium positions within the range; increase size only on confirmed breakouts.
- Keep stops tight, as sideways phases tend to trigger false signals.
- Maintain Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 and avoid overtrading in choppy conditions.
- Reassess market bias once the H1 channel is decisively broken.
Conclusion:
Gold is sitting right at the “make-or-break” zone of its sideways channel. This area will tell us whether the market plans to reject and pull back, or gather enough momentum for a powerful breakout. As always, we remain flexible: trade the range until it breaks, and prepare to shift bias immediately if a confirmed breakout occurs.
HAVE A WONDERFUL NEW WEEK GUYS!
Gold:Buying on pullbacksGold bulls continue to surge upward. We will maintain the momentum of buying on pullbacks, which remains our operational goal. First, focus on the previous resistance-turned-support zone around 4040-4055; consider going long if the pullback holds above this level. Next, watch the support zone around 4020-4025 below. Pay key attention to the critical support level around 4000-4008.
Gold market remains bullish cautiously The gold market remains slightly unstable despite a slated bullish sentiment, as price action consolidates within key zones. Current market behavior suggests that imbalance voids are likely to be filled, potentially wedging price movement toward the 4300 region , follow for more refined insights on gold market , comment and boost idea .
XAU/USD BEARISH SET UPWe previously confirmed a strong bullish uptrend with multiple respects of the uptrend line, showing clear market structure continuation.
However, price failed to make a higher high around the 4382 area, forming a clear double top pattern — a strong reversal signal.
After rejecting this level, price broke below the uptrend line, creating structural chaos and confirming a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.
Following the breakout, we saw a retest of the broken trendline, which held as new resistance and pushed price downward toward the 3890 zone.
At this zone, price has now consolidated into a bearish symmetrical triangle, a continuation pattern that typically signals further downside pressure.
📉 Bearish Plan
Entry: 4012
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3828
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3731
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 3624
🧩 Technical Summary
Confirmed Double Top Reversal near 4382
Trendline Break & Retest validates bearish bias
Bearish Symmetrical Triangle formation strengthens continuation outlook
Looking for continuation to downside if 4012 breaks and retests cleanly
💡 Bias: Bearish
⏱️ Structure: Trendline break → Retest → Continuation
🔍 Focus: Patience on confirmation candle close below 4012 before entry
Latest Gold Analysis and Trading Strategies:
I. Fundamental Analysis
1. Safe-Haven Sentiment Supports Gold Prices
The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has sparked concerns about its economic impact. Combined with weakness in global stock markets (especially in tech and AI-related shares), market risk appetite has cooled, leading some capital to flow into defensive assets like gold.
Signs of a cooling labor market have intensified investor concerns about the economic outlook, further driving safe-haven demand for gold.
2. Monetary Policy Expectations Capping Gold's Upside
The market's reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook has resulted in a lack of strong follow-through buying for gold, limiting its upward potential.
Recent economic data and cautious statements from policymakers have kept the market in a wait-and-see mode, leading gold to maintain a range-bound pattern in the short term.
II. Technical Analysis
1. Weekly and Daily Chart Structure
The weekly chart closed with a bullish doji candlestick, indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears. The price is consolidating within the familiar range of $3928 - $4030.
A break above the $4030 resistance could open the door for further upside, targeting $4075 - $4100. A break below the $3928 support could lead to a decline towards the previous low near $3887.
2. Short-Term Signals
4-Hour Chart: A small ascending triangle pattern is forming. The price is facing temporary resistance around $4030, but the K-line is gradually moving above the short-term moving averages, suggesting a slightly bullish bias in the near term.
1-Hour Chart: The previous short-term uptrend has been broken. The $4030 level now acts as key resistance, with immediate support located at $3965. Monitor volume changes closely, as a significant increase in volume could signal an impending trend reversal.
III. Gold Trading Strategy
Trading Approach:
Primary Strategy: Focus on buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary tactic.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 4030 - 4050
Support: 3970 - 3950
Detailed Plan:
1. Long Strategy (Buying)
Look to enter long positions in batches if the price stabilizes within the 3970-3950 range.
Set a stop loss below 3940.
Take profit targets at 4030 and then 4050.
If the price strongly breaks above 4030, consider entering a light long position, targeting 4070-4100.
2. Short Strategy (Selling)
Consider light short positions if the price faces resistance in the 4030-4050 range.
Set a stop loss above 4060.
Take profit targets at 3980-3960.
If the price breaks directly below 3928, consider entering a short position on a pullback, targeting 3900-3887.
Risk Warning:
Closely monitor developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, signals from the Federal Reserve, and changes in global market risk sentiment.
Be cautious of potential acceleration in the trend if there is a significant increase in trading volume accompanying a breakout from the current range.
IV. Summary
Gold is currently trading within a short-term consolidation range between 3928 and 4030. Fundamental safe-haven support and pressure from monetary policy expectations are creating a tug-of-war. The recommended trading approach is to primarily buy near support and sell near resistance within this range, then follow the breakout direction if key levels are breached. Implement strict risk management and remain flexible to adapt to news-driven market movements.
Gold sideway around $4000 — waiting for a decisive breakout1️⃣ Market Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently fluctuating between $3994–$3998, maintaining a narrow range of $3990–$4000 for several hours.
The market is lacking fresh momentum as investors await upcoming U.S. economic data.
Both the USD and Treasury yields are moving sideways, keeping gold in consolidation mode without a clear breakout.
2️⃣ Technical Analysis:
• Resistance: $4005 – $4012
• Support: $3985 – $3975
• EMA50 (H1): holding near $3989 → short-term dynamic support.
• Consecutive small-bodied H1 candles with balanced wicks indicate a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
• RSI (H1) remains neutral around 50 → market is waiting for a breakout signal.
3️⃣ Market Outlook:
• This is a consolidation phase before a potential breakout, likely to occur within the next few hours.
• If H1 closes above $4005, gold could extend its rally toward $4025–$4040.
• Conversely, if price breaks below $3985, a short-term correction could be triggered toward $3970–$3955.
4️⃣ Trading Strategy:
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
Entry: $3985 – $3982
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $3979
🔻 SELL XAU/USD
Entry: $4012 – $4015
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $4019
Technical analysis for Gold (XAU/USD, 30-minute chart) 🔹 Chart Structure Overview
The chart shows a Bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern formation.
• The pattern is complete near the 0.786 retracement level (~$4040–$4055 zone).
• The final leg (D) has just completed, and price has reached the potential reversal zone (PRZ), confirming bearish reversal probability.
Target Level
Fibonacci Level Approx. Price Commentary
T1 - 0.618 retracement 3920–3940
Minor support; short-term profit-booking likely.
T2 1.0 projection 3820–3840
Key swing target; aligns with mid-March support.
T3 (Final) 1.618 extension ~3900
🔹 Summary
• Pattern: Bearish Gartley
• Current Zone: PRZ completed, reversal probable
• Confirmation: Await break below 3980
• Bias: Bearish
• Target: 3900
• Probability: High (pattern + divergence + volume confluence)
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always verify with your own strategy and risk parameters before taking any position.
Gold continues to gain after breakout — tighten focus on key lev📊 Market Behaviour
The price of Gold (XAU/USD) broke above the consolidation zone and is currently advancing with less hesitation — the momentum now leans bullish as the sideway phase fades. Meanwhile, macro factors such as safe-haven demand and dollar softening support the uptrend.
🧭 Technical Analysis
• Immediate resistance: ~$4018 – $4030
• Support zones: ~$4004 – $4000 near the previous breakout level
• On a 1-hour chart, the breakout above the consolidation gives a bullish bias, but momentum indicators suggest some cooling off — watch for possible pullback to retest support before further advances.
• A sustained drop below the $4000 area would signal a trend check; conversely, a clean push above $4030 with volume would suggest a move toward higher targets.
💡 Outlook
Given current breakout action, the short-term trend has turned bullish. The next move likely targets the $4030 region and possibly beyond, provided support holds above $4000. If momentum wanes, a retest of $4000–$4004 would be a natural pause zone before any further breakout.
🎯 Trading Strategy Suggestion
🔺 Buy Setup
Entry: $4008 – $4012 (on pullback to support)
Target: $4030+
Stop Loss: $3995
🟡 Alternate Setup (if momentum stalls)
Sell/short only if price closes H1 below $4000; then target $3980 or $3965, with stop above $4008.
XAUUSD: The resistance level at 4020 remains strongGold has attempted to break through the 4020 resistance level several times today but failed. Coupled with the fact that the U.S. initial jobless claims data has not yet been released, it has now re-entered a correction phase.
The resistance level at 4020 remains strong.
For support, the short-term level is still at 3960-3970,and the key previous low support at 3888-3890.
The trading strategy can still refer to our analysis from this morning.
XAUUSD/GOLD 1H BUY PROJECTION 06.11.25XAUUSD (Gold/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, dated 06.11.25. Here’s a clear breakdown of what the analysis suggests:
🟢 Overall Bias: BUY Projection
The setup shows a bullish outlook for Gold, following a trendline breakout and retest.
🔍 Key Technical Details:
Trendline Break & Retest:
A downward (bearish) trendline was broken to the upside.
Price retested the broken trendline, confirming potential for upward continuation.
Temporary Resistance:
Around 3989–3990 level (current price area).
If this zone is broken cleanly, further upward movement is expected.
Uptrend Line (1H):
An ascending trendline is drawn, suggesting the current bullish momentum.
The projection follows this uptrend structure.
Resistance Levels:
Resistance R1: Around 4000–4010
Resistance R2: Around 4020–4030
These are potential target zones for buyers.
Support / Stop-Loss Area:
Below 3970, marked in the red shaded region, is the invalidation level if price drops below it.
🧭 Projected Path:
The arrows indicate the expected movement:
Minor pullback from temporary resistance.
Bounce off the trendline.
Continuation up through R1 and potentially toward R2.
💡 Summary:
Bias: Bullish (Buy)
Entry Zone: Near 3980–3990 after retest confirmation.
Targets:
TP1 = 4000–4010 (R1)
TP2 = 4020–4030 (R2)
Stop-Loss: Below 3970 support.
Would you like me to calculate the risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) based on these zones
Will gold break out of its range on November 6th?
Core View: Range-Bound with a Bearish Bias, Prefer Selling Rallies with Buying Dips as a Supplement
The gold market is currently within a clear trading range, lacking momentum for a unilateral trend. Tuesday's large bearish candle sets a short-term bearish tone for the day, but strong support levels below limit the downside potential. Therefore, the primary trading approach should be to sell on rallies, while looking to buy bounces at key support levels.
I. Key Price Levels
Core Resistance Zone: 4000 - 4020
Short-Term Support Zone: 3945 - 3925
Strong Support Zone: 3915 - 3885
II. Specific Trading Strategies
1. Short Strategy (Primary Direction)
Entry Zone: Look to enter short positions in batches when the price rallies to the 4000-4020 zone.
Profit Target: Primary target is the 3945-3925 zone.
Stop Loss: Recommended to place above 4020.
2. Long Strategy (Secondary Opportunity)
Entry Zone: Consider light long positions if the price retraces to the 3925-3915 support zone. A touch of the strong support around 3885 presents a more ideal long opportunity.
Profit Target: Aim for a technical rebound towards the 3980-4000 zone.
Stop Loss: Recommended to place below the key support level (e.g., if entering long at 3925, place stop loss below 3910).
III. Market Outlook & Important Notes
Range-Bound Nature: The market is operating within a broad 3880 - 4050 range. Do not mistake short-term fluctuations for the start of a new trend; avoid chasing prices.
Breakout Handling:
If the price breaks strongly above 4020, the short-term bearish structure is invalidated. Short positions must be closed firmly, and consider going long on a pullback with light positions.
If the price breaks decisively below 3880, the downside is likely to extend. Shift to a trend-following short strategy.
Risk Management: In the current ranging market, it is essential to trade with light positions and use strict stop-losses. The market is prone to reversals; sound risk control is key to survival and profitability.
Summary:
Prioritize looking for shorting opportunities near the 4000 level during the day. If the price declines directly without a prior rally, patiently wait for it to reach the 3925-3915 or even the 3885 support zones before seeking long opportunities.






















