XAUUSD DROPS BELOW $4,100 WHAT NEXT?XAUUSD price dropped below the $4,100 level on Friday’s trading session. This sparks reactions from traders. Are we going to see further selling pressure or it’s just a mere drop in price? From my own point of view, I expect more drop in price. I anticipate more bearish price action to develop away from this market. I’m selling short on Gold.
Trade ideas
Gold Retesting CP Zone Before a Potential Rally Toward 4,270$Gold continues to respect its bullish structure after a clean breakout from the triangle accumulation pattern. The current pullback looks healthy and controlled, suggesting that price may simply be returning to key liquidity zones before launching the next impulse wave upward.
🔍 1. Market Structure – Clean Bullish Trend
Overall trend: Strong bullish on H1–H4.
Price broke out with momentum → beginning of a new impulse leg.
Recent correction tapped perfectly into the 0.382–0.50 Fibonacci area, confirming a typical bullish continuation pattern.
The key now is how price reacts around the CP Zone at 4,210 and the OBS Zone at 4,189.
📊 2. Key Technical Zones
🟩 CP BUY Zone: 4,210 – 4,211
• Fair retest zone
• Fibo confluence + prior breakout structure
→ High-probability reaction area.
🟧 OBS BUY Zone: 4,187 – 4,190
• 30m bullish Order Block
• Deep liquidity area where Smart Money often reloads
→ The “golden” buy zone if price sweeps deeper.
🎯 Primary Target
• 4,271$ (Fibo 1.618 extension + upper resistance)
→ Key expansion target for the ongoing bullish wave.
🔄 3. Trade Scenarios
Scenario 1 – CP Zone BUY (Priority)
If price retests 4,210 and shows bullish reaction → BUY continuation.
TP: 4,240 → 4,260 → 4,271
SL: Below 4,205
Scenario 2 – Deep Liquidity BUY (Alternate)
If price sweeps down into OBS 4,189–4,190, look for strong wick rejection → BUY.
TP: 4,220 → 4,240 → 4,271
SL: Below 4,180
🧠 MMFlow Insight
Trend remains undeniably bullish, no signs of reversal yet.
Pullbacks into CP/OBS are simply Smart Money accumulation phases.
As long as price holds above 4,189, the bullish bias remains dominant.
Expansion toward 4,27x is still the main roadmap.
👉 Avoid selling against the trend. Focus only on precision BUY setups at the right liquidity points.
XAUUSD – Liquidity-Driven Long Setup (Smart Money Narrative)📖 Market Story (What’s Really Happening)
Gold is not “ just bullish ” — it’s being engineered higher through liquidity.
Price has been forming a series of higher lows, which tells us one thing:
Institutions are protecting downside and accumulating long positions gradually.
Recently, price retraced back into a discount zone where:
Previous demand was formed
Trendline support aligned
And liquidity from late sellers started to build below recent lows
This tells us the market is setting a liquidity trap.
Retail traders are selling this pullback thinking the trend is over.
Smart money waits — and then uses their stop-losses as fuel to push price higher.
Now price is reacting from this high-probability demand area and showing early signs of bullish intent.
This is not about guessing direction — it’s about understanding where liquidity is resting and who is about to get trapped.
📈 Trade Plan (Sniper Execution Model)
✅ Entry (Buy Setup)
Buy Zone: 4050 – 4065
Only valid if:
Price sweeps sell-side liquidity
And shows strong bullish displacement
🛑 Stop Loss
SL: 4025
Placed below structural low.
If this level breaks — bullish narrative is invalid.
🎯 Targets
TP1: 4145
(Partial close – secure profits & move stop to breakeven)
TP2: 4220
(Main liquidity target and expense of trapped sellers)
⚖️ Risk Management
Risk per trade: 1% only
This is a precision trade, not a gamble.
🧩 Confluence Summary
What gives this setup edge:
✅ Higher timeframe bullish structure
✅ Liquidity resting below recent lows
✅ Demand zone + trendline compression
✅ Smart money narrative aligned
🧾 Final Thought
This trade is not about predicting gold.
It’s about positioning before the liquidity expansion happens.
Now we wait for price to deliver.
This is not a financial advice
WEEKLY ANALYSIS This week could be the beginning of another rally on Gold after creating the higher low on weekly and clearing some of the both sell and buy sides liquidity that sent mixed signals that deceived many of us which is also good and very important part of the trading process because it helps us to learn new things or upgrade on the things we know already and therefore prepares us for tomorrow .
So the chart above is how i expect the bullishness to start again with momentum this coming week , it wouldn't surprise me if the market range again or fail to buy more and closes below but as for now i only see buy continuation and i will only change my bias only if Gold fails to buy more and rather closes the week with a bearish candle, so this coming week is very important week and a confirmation week.
A buy and hold at 4060-55 sl at 4040
Gold Preparing for 3920–3950 Retest Before Bullish ContinuationMonthly timeframe (1M)
Gold historically spends 3–4 months in a consolidation or bounce range before continuing the macro trend.
After a parabolic move up, the current monthly candle shows a large top wick, signaling temporary buyer exhaustion – but the long-term trend remains firmly bullish.
Weekly timeframe (1W)
Price made a clean retest of the 20EMA, which is a textbook “healthy pullback” in strong uptrends.
RSI coming off the overbought zone with a mild bearish crossover.
CCI clearly trending down.
MACD showing the first signs of a potential rollover, but no confirmed bearish cross yet.
Overall: the weekly chart is in a bullish correction, not a reversal.
Daily timeframe (1D)
MACD is approaching the zero line, which rarely breaks below on gold during bullish cycles.
RSI near 50 – the typical lower boundary for bullish pullbacks.
CCI touched oversold once and looks ready for another retest.
Gold typically touches the 50EMA during corrections – which hasn’t happened yet.
Last daily candle closed above EMA20, but momentum is still weakening.
This strongly suggests a retest of the 3920–3950 zone (1D EMA50 area) before continuation.
4H timeframe
Price is currently fighting with the 20EMA and 50EMA.
The 200EMA was tested twice and held perfectly, supported by oversold conditions across:
RSI, CCI, MACD curl, and Stoch.
This signals quiet institutional buying on dips.
Final outlook
Most probable scenario:
Retest of 3920–3950 (1D EMA50 zone)
Trend remains strong on higher timeframes; lower timeframes are completing a healthy correction.
XAUUSD -SetupPrice has confirmed a bearish breakout from the structure, and I’m expecting continuation toward the three downside targets. As long as price maintains bearish momentum and stays below the key levels, the setup remains valid.
Bias: Bearish
Invalidation: ❌ Setup becomes invalid if price closes above 4107.50.
Watching for sustained downside pressure and continuation toward the marked take-profit zones.
I will be going long on gold after the market opens.Are youreadyGold prices remained relatively stable this week, offering traders some room for maneuver. This week, after reaching a high of 4132, gold prices fluctuated between 4000 and 4110, showing greater stability compared to the previous volatile market. This provided favorable conditions for implementing trading strategies, and several short-selling operations during this period also achieved the expected results.
From a weekly chart perspective, the chart shows a doji pattern, indicating that the forces of bulls and bears are relatively balanced in the short term, lacking a clear one-sided trend, suggesting that investors are generally cautious. Historical data shows that Fridays are often prone to price fluctuations, so it is necessary to remain vigilant about risk management. Looking at the hourly chart, prices have entered a key support/resistance zone, currently trading near the Bollinger Band's middle line. If it can effectively hold this position, it is expected to retest the resistance levels of $4090 and $4100. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to place long orders in batches within the 4050 to 4070 range after the market opens, and closely monitor market dynamics. If there are any further changes, we will promptly notify you of any adjustments to the plan.
The above are my personal thoughts! If they are helpful to you or you agree with my ideas, please like and follow to support me! All strategies have a limited lifespan, so while referring to them, you should also closely monitor market changes. I will also respond flexibly according to actual market fluctuations, and I will announce the specifics in the channel!
Nov 21, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity Summary:
It’s Friday, and the market still hasn’t given a clear direction. For now, I’m using 4074 as the bull–bear line:
• Above 4074 → buy on pullbacks that hold
• Below 4074 → sell on pullbacks that fail
Stay flexible and let price action confirm the direction.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 4120 – Resistance
• 4107–4110 – Resistance
• 4100–4102 – Resistance
• 4096 – Resistance
• 4089 – Resistance
• 4082 – Resistance
• 4074 – Bull/Bear line
• 4067 – Support
• 4055 – Support
• 4020–4030 – Support zone
• 4007 – Support
• 3998–4000 – Psychological support zone
📈 Intraday Strategy:
• SELL if price breaks below 4074 → target 4067, then 4063, 4055, 4050
• BUY if price holds above 4081 → target 4088, then 4092, 4100, 4107
XAUUSD H1 TIME FRAME CHART ANALYSIS CONFIRMED TARGET SEE AND CHE📉 Chart Breakdown
1. Current Price
Around 4077.5
2. Sell Zone
Marked as “XAU/USD SELL Area” around the current price.
This suggests you’re planning to enter (or already entered) a sell trade near 4077–4080.
3. Stop Loss (Stop trade)
Highlighted red zone above.
SL appears to be around 4102.
4. Take-Profit Targets
Target 1: 4040
Target 2 (Next target): 4000
Gold is consolidating within the $4050-$4100 range.Gold is consolidating within the $4050-$4100 range.
As shown on the 4-hour chart: Gold prices have been consolidating within a range, and a breakout of the single trendline this week is unlikely.
Expected trading range: $4000-$4110
Gold prices are currently declining. Based on the chart pattern,
we are waiting for a rebound and will continue to short at higher price levels:
Sell: $4080-$4090
Stop Loss: $4120
Take Profit: $4050-$4030-$4000
This strategy is largely consistent with yesterday's theoretical analysis.
Bearish Delivery Activated Between OG ZonesVANTAGE:XAUUSD price has rejected cleanly from the new
🐼Bearish OG Zone, and the OG TrendMaster just printed a 📉Short signal.
Buyers lost control, so my bias is to the downside, targeting the lower OG zone.
Short Bias:
• Entry: 4,078 – 4,090 (Bearish OG zone)
• Stop: Above 4,118
• TP1: 4,045
• TP2: 4,025
• Final Target: Lower OG Zone (around 4,000 – 3,990)
Fundamentals also line up with a bearish bias on gold. Today’s key U.S. releases NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings can create strong volatility. If jobs and wages come in stronger than expected, the dollar typically strengthens and gold sells off. Even neutral numbers can keep pressure on gold as markets price in tighter monetary conditions. With heavy USD data on deck, the short setup aligns well with the macro narrative.
FIRST CONFIRMATION CANDLE If this current m30 candle in the purple sphere closes bullish then it will be first good confirmation of more buys so we will wait for other higher time frames for more confirmation but if it closes bearish by 6am it will be best to close buys and wait for a while because it will push down further but could be rejected to close around 4070 before we buy again , it could also lead to more sells if it closes bearish so it will be best to close and wait for the reaction after that .
Gold(XAUUSD)-Bullish Setup/RiskyChartPrice flipped bullish after CHoCH and BOS on the 15m/1H structure.
Market retraced into a clean demand zone and showed strong displacement back upward.
I'm expecting continuation toward PDH, with intraday targets at 4090 → 4108 → 4120.
As long as price holds above the 4060–4050 demand area, bullish bias remains valid.
Gold softens after Fed minutes as smokestacks cap every rally Is there any way we can get a December rate cut now?
Gold has softened after the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's last interest rate decision.
The minutes show there’s no unified push toward cutting, which could make a December move unlikely.
Several Federal Reserve officials supported lowering rates in October, but others preferred keeping policy unchanged, and some pushed back firmly against easing.
Technically, XAUUSD continues to form smokestacks, printing repeated double-top structures. The price is now hovering around 4,070, sitting under possible short-term resistance at 4,150. XAUUSD losing the 50-day MA further could shift bias more decisively lower.
Gold Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy (November 19th) MaGold Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy (November 19th)
Market Review: Yesterday, the gold market showed a bottoming-out and rebound trend. After testing the support level of 3998, the price stabilized and rebounded. In the evening, it broke through the key resistance level of 4030, officially turning into a bullish pattern. Subsequently, after a second pullback to the 4029 support level, it launched a strong rally, reaching a high of 4082. The daily chart ultimately closed with a small bullish candlestick with a relatively long lower shadow, ending the previous three-day losing streak. This candlestick pattern indicates that after a fierce battle between bulls and bears, the bulls have regained dominance.
Technical Analysis
From a daily chart perspective, although yesterday's positive close alleviated short-term downward pressure, the overall technical pattern still presents some concerns:
The short-term moving average system above still provides significant resistance, and the price has not yet achieved a substantial breakout.
After three consecutive days of negative closes, the rebound of this single positive candle is more likely a technical correction.
The price retraced again in the morning session, indicating that the bullish momentum still needs further confirmation.
Key Levels Analysis:
Support Area: Around 4050 (a support/resistance level), this level will be the watershed between bulls and bears today.
Resistance Area: 4100-4105 (the previous high of the negative candle), this is a significant short-term resistance zone.
Trading Strategy
Operational Approach: Primarily buy on dips, secondarily sell on rallies.
Specific Layout Long Position Strategy: Buy in batches in the 4050-4055 range, with a position size of 20% and a stop loss of 8 points. Target levels are 4080-4100, with a potential further upside to 4110 if the price breaks through.
Short Position Strategy: Sell in batches in the 4100-4105 range, with a position size of 20% and a stop loss of 8 points. Target levels are 4080-4060, with a potential further downside to the 4050 support level if the price breaks below.
Risk Warning: The impact of the Fed meeting minutes should be closely monitored today.
The non-farm payroll data will be released on Thursday and may have a significant impact on the market.
Strictly adhere to position management; the stop loss for each trade should not exceed 8% of the position size.
Specific entry points should be adjusted flexibly based on real-time market movements.
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for November 19thGold Technical Analysis:
Daily Resistance: 4150, Support: 4000
4-Hour Resistance: 4150, Support: 4082
1-Hour Resistance: 4120, Support: 4098
Technically, the weekly candlestick chart shows a rebound, indicating confirmed support. Yesterday's daily chart closed with a hammer pattern after the rise, strengthening confidence in the technical rebound. Intraday, the effectiveness of the Bollinger Middle Band support needs to be monitored. The 4000 level has stabilized in the short term. News and data in the next few trading days will remain a key focus for the market. Now that 4100 has been broken, short-term traders can follow the trend. If the NY market experiences a slight pullback, it's also a good opportunity to buy, targeting the 4220/4250 area. We need to focus on the probability of a December rate cut; if it returns to above 60%, gold could accelerate its upward movement.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, gold rebounded strongly in the European session, with the price action within an upward channel. Having broken through 4100, the short-term trend suggests further continuation. Watch for support levels from the MACD/KDJ indicators. For the European and American sessions, consider buying on a pullback to around 4095/4082.
Trading Strategy:
BUY: 4095~4082
SELL: 4150~4158
More Analysis →
Gold: A counterattack from the bullsGold rebounded yesterday after testing lower levels, initially falling before rising. The weekly chart shows a pullback to near 3998, finding some support. The RSI indicator remains near the midline, and the price is trading around the middle Bollinger Band. On the shorter-term 4-hour chart, moving averages are converging, the RSI is near the midline, and the price is trading between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands. Technically, gold is maintaining a wide-range trading structure. The trading strategy remains to buy low and sell high, with the intraday range to watch being 4040-4110.
Gold opened slightly higher today. The daily chart is forming a contracting triangle pattern, suggesting further upside potential. However, don't forget the release of the Fed meeting minutes during the New York session today; this news could be positive for gold, and upward momentum might be released before the news. Support below 4000 is very strong, and market sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish. There is a high probability that the rebound will continue today; the trading strategy is to buy on dips, focusing on buying at support levels.
Key Levels:
First Support: 4062, Second Support: 4043, Third Support: 4025
First Resistance: 4090, Second Resistance: 4108, Third Resistance: 4126
Gold Intraday Trading Strategy:
Buy: 4045-4050, SL: 4035, TP: 4070-4080;
Sell: 4115-4120, SL: 4130, TP: 4100-4090;
More Analysis →
XAU/USD Intraday Plan — Critical Resistance AheadGold has shown a strong recovery from the Support Zone, reclaiming the 50MA and breaking above the 4078 resistance, which has now flipped into support. Price is currently trading around 4095, but the 200MA is acting as immediate resistance.
For buyers to continue higher, we need a clean break above 4115, the next key resistance. A confirmed break above this level would open the path toward 4170 and 4232.
If price fails to clear 4115, we could see a rejection back toward the 4078–4053 immediate support area. A break below that zone would expose a deeper pullback into the Support Zone again.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
4115
4170
4232
Support:
4078
4053
4027
3996
🔎Fundamental Focus:
The key event today is the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which could spark volatility depending on whether the tone appears more hawkish or dovish. Traders will be watching closely for clues on upcoming policy direction.
Continue to short gold in the $4075-$4095 range!Gold prices rebounded slightly after falling below the $4,000 mark, a move highly consistent with previous technical analysis expectations. As previously predicted, gold prices successfully reached the key target of $4,000 after a period of sustained downward volatility, indicating a significant release of bearish momentum. This pullback was accompanied by high market sensitivity to macroeconomic data, particularly following the unexpected rise in initial jobless claims. This heightened concerns about the future labor market prompted investors to reassess the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, leading to a resurgence in safe-haven demand and driving a significant rebound in gold prices.
The data reflects signs of a possible marginal slowdown in the job market, causing some traders to reduce their bets on further interest rate hikes. This led to a decline in US Treasury yields and downward pressure on the US dollar index, thus providing short-term support for precious metals. As a result, gold prices quickly rebounded from their lows, recovering some lost ground and successfully reversing the previous continuous decline, returning to a range-bound trading pattern.
From a current technical perspective, although gold prices have rebounded, the overall trend has not yet completely escaped downward pressure. Bears remain dominant, with the medium- and long-term moving averages arranged in a bearish pattern, indicating a cautious market sentiment. In the short term, the $3990-$4000 range is a key support zone. This area not only represents a previous consolidation level but also represents a concentration of technical buying and stop-loss orders, providing strong support for the current phase. Resistance is concentrated in the $4100-$4090 range, a densely packed area of resistance that has been tested multiple times recently without success. Coupled with the possibility of some trapped positions selling off, gold prices are expected to face some selling pressure on any upward movement.
Given the current weak and volatile market, the trading strategy can continue the approach established at the beginning of the week. It is recommended to short gold in batches when the price rebounds to between $4075 and $4095. At the same time, close attention should be paid to important events such as US inflation data, the non-farm payroll report, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials, as these factors may exacerbate market volatility and alter the short-term trend. If there are significant changes in the fundamentals, such as higher-than-expected inflation or significantly weaker economic data, the strategy will be adjusted accordingly and timely updates will be provided.
Overall, the gold market is currently in a phase of intensified battle between bulls and bears, with the direction still unclear. In terms of trading, it is advisable to remain flexible, control positions, avoid chasing highs and lows, and focus on structural opportunities in a volatile market.
The above are my personal thoughts! If they are helpful to you or your ideas align with mine, please like and follow to show your support! All strategies have a limited lifespan, so while referring to them, you should also closely monitor market changes. I will also respond flexibly based on actual market fluctuations, and I will announce specifics in the channel!
Long GOLD (GC, GLD, etc)I am planning to go to a long GOLD position again. Maybe needs some consolidation, but the eventual target will be 4800-5000 around mid-end 2026. I will choose otm GLD leap calls.
There is an alternative scenario that the price will drop to ~3850 first to form a wedge pattern. If so, I will double down on my leap calls.






















