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Gold 15m support heading towards 4110Main Bias : Bullish (Buy) – The overall trend and recent price action suggest buyers are stepping in. Price recently tested a strong support zone and showed a clear reaction, indicating potential upward movement. Entry Zone : Around 4,078 – 4,081 – This is a retest of a previous resistance now turned support (breaker level). Entering here gives a favorable risk-to-reward setup. Stop Loss (SL) : 4,068 – 4,070 – Placed just below the support to protect against a deeper pullback. Target (TP): 4,110 – 4,120 – The next major resistance area where price could face selling pressure. Confluences: Price bounced cleanly from the breaker support level Candlestick reaction shows buyers are stepping in Momentum aligns with the bullish bias, confirming the potential move upward Summary : Look for a buy around 4,078 – 4,081, aiming for 4,110 – 4,120, with a stop around 4,068 – 4,070. The setup is supported by strong support (breaker) and confirming bullish price action, giving a clear and manageable trade plan. This is not financial advice.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Champ_of_Gold
Gold Weekly Closes on November 21; Rebound Still BearishGold prices rebounded quickly to around 4088 after opening before continuing to fall. Key support lies around the previous low of 4020, which is the last line of defense for the bulls. A breach of this level would open up further downside potential, with the next target likely around 4000. However, this is only the first small target; a further break below this level could lead to a retest of the previous low of 3900. From the 4-hour chart, the key resistance level to watch is 4076-85, while the key support level is 4020-25. Technically, a pullback is more likely. We will patiently wait for key entry points.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AnalystDavid_
1
Gold at Make-or-Break Level – High-Probability Short Setup LoadiGold is still trading inside a corrective structure after forming a clear lower low and then consolidating. Price has tapped the mid range zone and is now reacting from a short term supply area. As long as gold stays below 4130–4145 the bearish structure remains intact and the downside continuation toward 4025 → 4000 → 3950 remains the primary expectation. A short setup becomes active once price gives rejection or a small BOS from the current supply zone. The trade becomes invalid if gold breaks and closes above 4150 which would shift structure and open the way for a deeper pullback toward 4175–4200. Sell Zone : 4130 - 4145 Invalidation : Break & close above 4150 Targets: 4075 → 4025 → 4000 → 3950 Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for November 20thGold Technical Analysis: Daily Resistance: 4150, Support: 4000 4-Hour Resistance: 4110, Support: 4015 1-Hour Resistance: 4085, Support: 4040 Technically, yesterday's daily chart closed with a "gravestone doji" candlestick. The resistance in the 4135/4150 area remains strong in the short term. The effectiveness of the 4040 support level needs to be monitored today. Meanwhile, the 4000 psychological level is being tested. A break below this level would warrant a short-term sell-on-trend move. Conversely, if the price recovers above 4100 in the short term, a buy-on-trend move would be appropriate, with the 4220/4250 area as a potential resistance level. The recent Fed minutes have brought the market back from its "interest rate cut euphoria" to reality: inflation remains the primary enemy, and interest rate cuts are not easily implemented. The foundation of gold's super bull market (low interest rates + strong safe-haven demand) is weakening, and short-term bulls need to be prepared for a rollercoaster ride. Based on the 1-hour chart, gold prices fluctuated downwards during the European session, with the price action within a downward channel. After breaking below 4080, the short-term trend is likely to continue. Watch the MACD/KDJ indicators for bearish momentum. Trading Strategy: BUY: 4005~4000 SELL: 4085near SELL: 4106near More Analysis →
TVC:GOLD
by ActuaryJ
Smart Money Concept (GOLD)📊 PROFESSIONAL BREAKDOWN 1️⃣ Accumulation + Liquidity build-up Price formed a solid range where liquidity was built on both sides, preparing the institutional move. 2️⃣ ChoCH + BOS: Real bullish shift The sequence confirms bullish intent with both a structural break and a change of character. 3️⃣ Fake Out / Liquidity Grab A sweep above the range confirms manipulation and removes buy-side liquidity before the true move. 4️⃣ Clean rejection at support The current rejection aligns perfectly with institutional demand, validating the BUY zone. 5️⃣ Optimal BUY at 4,056 Confluences: • ChoCH retest • Support zone • Previous FVG • Strong rejection 6️⃣ Professional SL at 4,028 Placement is clean, safe, and protected from volatility spikes. 7️⃣ Target areas • TP1: 4,112 → resting liquidity • TP2: 4,150 → FVG mitigation in 1H Both targets align with institutional price delivery. 🌟 Motivational Message “Mastery comes from understanding the story behind each candle. Keep sharpening your institutional eye.” GOOD LUCK TRADERS
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
Gold Non-Farm Payrolls Plus Government Opening Gold prices fluctuated between slight gains and minor pullbacks during Thursday's Asian trading session, consolidating around $4080. With the US September non-farm payrolls report due later in the day, the market remained cautious, with investors generally choosing to postpone adding new directional positions. The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December has further decreased recently. With a cautious policy stance, the dollar has strengthened and risen to its highest level since May, thus putting significant pressure on gold, which does not generate interest. However, the data gaps in the US economy caused by the prolonged government shutdown have led to market skepticism about the true economic momentum. Investment institutions pointed out, "Because the data recovery after the shutdown is incomplete, the actual growth momentum may be lower than it appears, therefore, support for gold remains." Despite the combined effects of multiple factors, gold prices, while under pressure, have not experienced a one-sided decline. From the 1-hour chart, gold is expected to trade within a range during the daytime session. The key resistance level to watch is 4110, while the key support level is 4030. Technically, a pullback is more likely. We will patiently await the non-farm payroll data tonight and adjust our strategy accordingly. However, we also reserve the possibility that the market might break down prematurely due to market expectations before the non-farm payroll data release. In the middle positions, observe more and act less, be cautious about chasing orders, and patiently wait for key entry points. I will provide specific operational strategies in the channel, so please pay attention. Strategy Signals： Buy: 4105-4110，SL：4120，TP：4050，4030
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheodoreSilas
Gold prices retreated slightly as market sentiment shifted towarGold prices retreated slightly as market sentiment shifted towards risk assets. Gold prices fell during Asian trading hours on Thursday, primarily reflecting improved market risk appetite and reduced safe-haven demand due to thin trading during the holiday season. As market expectations for another Fed rate cut in December intensified, coupled with improved regional peace negotiations, global sentiment became more optimistic, prompting some funds to flow from gold to risk assets. Fundamental Analysis Fed Policy Expectations Support Gold Prices Recent speeches by several Fed officials have clearly shifted towards a dovish stance. John Williams of the New York Fed stated that if the economy remains as it is, a rate cut would not affect the inflation target; Fed Governor Waller pointed out that the weakness in the labor market is sufficient to support another rate cut. Against this backdrop, the dollar index fell to a one-week low, continuing to provide support for gold. Divergent Economic Data Does Not Change Expectations of Rate Cuts Data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that durable goods orders rose 0.5% in September, a significant slowdown from the previous 3.0%, but higher than the expected 0.3%. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%, indicating that the manufacturing sector remains resilient. Overall data did not change market expectations regarding the Fed's policy path. Safe-haven demand was suppressed. Improved regional peace negotiations and a more positive external sentiment weakened gold's safe-haven appeal. Although negotiations remain far off, increased risk appetite is putting short-term pressure on gold prices. Technical Analysis: The structure is consolidating. The four-hour chart shows gold in a triangle consolidation pattern, with the downward trendline resistance in the 4173-4175 range. A decisive break above this resistance is needed to open up new upward potential; otherwise, consolidation will continue. Short-term pressure, watch for potential correction. The one-hour chart shows the price has broken below the short-term support zone and is under pressure from short-term moving averages, indicating a possible short-term correction. Key intraday resistance is at 4173-4175, with support at 4110-4100. Trading Strategies Short Position Strategy: If the price rebounds to around 4170-4173, consider shorting in batches with a stop-loss of 8 points. Target 4150-4130, with a further target of 4110 if it breaks below. Long Position Strategy: If the price pulls back to around 4105-4110, consider going long in batches with a stop-loss of 8 points. Target 4130-4150, with a further target of 4170 if it breaks above. Risk Warning: All trades require strict position control and stop-loss orders. Be wary of extreme market conditions caused by unforeseen events. Due to Thanksgiving in the US, the gold market will close early today, and trading may be light.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by XAUUSD-Elizabeth
GOLD ANALYSIS 11/27/2025🟦 1. Fundamental Analysis: a) Economy: • USD: The USD continues to weaken due to expectations that the FED will cut interest rates in 2026. Falling bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold → positive for GOLD. • US Stock Market: The U.S. market remains in the green thanks to expectations of monetary easing and the new administration’s stimulus package. Risk-on sentiment increases but does not pressure gold because the USD is still weak. • FED: The FED maintains a dovish tone, implying that inflation is moving in the right direction and they are ready to ease → supports gold’s bullish trend. • TRUMP: Plans for tax cuts and increased public spending → risk of a larger budget deficit → markets increase demand for hedging → gold becomes favored. • Gold ETF – SPDR: SPDR resumed strong net buying (4.57 tons yesterday), confirming large inflows returning to gold. This reinforces the current bullish trend. b) Geopolitics: Tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved, and Ukraine continues to escalate locally. → Safe-haven demand stays elevated, supporting gold. c) Market Sentiment: Current sentiment: risk-mixed • Rising stocks → risk-on • Falling USD + SPDR net buying → risk-off leaning toward gold → Overall: gold still holds a bullish advantage. However, the Thanksgiving holiday is reducing trading activity this week. 🟩 2. Technical Analysis: Trend: Gold is in a short-term uptrend after breaking the downtrend line, retesting successfully, and continuing upward. Price Structure: • Price consolidates around 4.36–4.173 • MA20–MA50 sloping upward • RSI remains above 50 → buyers dominant • Technical targets: 4.193 → 4.244 Key Levels: • Resistance: 4.173 – 4.193 – 4.244 • Support: 4.136 – 4.096 – 4.062 🟧 3. Yesterday’s Market (26/11/25): GOLD: • Tapped support at 4.136 and bounced strongly to 4.173 • No bearish reversal candlestick • Uptrend remains solid with stable volume USD: USD weakness is clear → supports GOLD’s bullish continuation. SPDR: SPDR continues net buying, confirming strong demand. 🟥 4. Trading Strategy Today (27/11/25): 🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4195 – 4193 SL: 4199 TP1: 4187 TP2: 4181 🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4109 – 4111 SL: 4105 TP1: 4117 TP2: 4123
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Signals_100pips
XAUUSD, Daily, Bearish Scenario AnalysisGold is approaching the apex of a contracting structure that looks more like distribution than accumulation. Despite the popular assumption that a symmetrical triangle is neutral, the underlying conditions point toward a higher probability of a downside break. ### 🔍 **Why the structure leans bearish** 1. **Volume is declining**, which usually signals fading momentum rather than preparation for a bullish continuation. 2. **Price is failing to hold higher lows**, showing weakness along the rising trendline. 3. **The previous parabolic leg** increases the probability of a deeper retracement rather than continuation. Markets rarely push into new highs after such exhaustion without a meaningful reset. 4. **Macro factors** such as bond yields and shifting rate expectations reduce Gold's upside pressure. 5. **Repeated rejections at the upper boundary** show supply absorbing attempts to push higher. --- ## 🎯 **Bearish Targets** The technical structure supports the possibility of a full breakdown from the triangle using a measured move equal to the previous major downswing. * **Primary target**: 3,500 * **Secondary target**: 3,300 Both levels align with historical demand zones and key Fibonacci retracement areas. --- ## 🧭 **Entry zones for a short position** ### 🔽 **Entry Option 1: Aggressive** * **Sell zone**: 4,160 to 4,180 * Based on repeated upper wick rejections and failure to build momentum above the trendline. ### 🔽 **Entry Option 2: Conservative and safer** * **Sell trigger**: Break and close below 4,120 * This confirms the loss of structure and invalidates the ascending trendline. --- ## 🛡️ **Stop loss placement** Choose based on your risk profile. * **SL for aggressive entry**: above 4,230 * **SL for conservative entry**: above 4,180 The idea is to protect the trade once price invalidates the bearish structure. --- ## 📌 **Risk management note** This setup is bearish, but the market is contracting. Volatility can expand in either direction. Stops are essential and position sizing should remain controlled.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by saal_eliyahu
US MARKETS CLOSED TODAY - THANKSGIVING🚨 US MARKETS CLOSED TODAY - THANKSGIVING 🦃 Current Price: $4,150 - $4,156 📊 Yesterday's Close: $4,130 Monthly Performance: +3.94% ✅ Yearly Performance: +57.69% 🔥 Status: 🟡 HOLIDAY - THIN TRADING 🎉 MAJOR BULLISH NEWS! DEUTSCHE BANK UPGRADES FORECAST! 📈 BREAKING: Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,450/oz from $4,000, citing stabilizing investor flows and persistent central bank demand. The bank now expects a $3,950-$4,950 range next year This is HUGE news for gold bulls! Major institution showing strong confidence in gold's future! 📊 IMPORTANT: TODAY'S MARKET CONDITIONS 🦃 Thanksgiving Holiday Schedule: Gold will NOT be traded on November 27, 2025 due to U.S. Thanksgiving holiday What This Means: ❌ US markets CLOSED all day ⚠️ Very thin liquidity globally ⚠️ Wide spreads expected ⚠️ Price gaps possible ✅ Good time to review positions Friday (Nov 28): Markets open but shortened hours Very low volume expected (Black Friday) Many traders still on holiday 💎 DEUTSCHE BANK FORECAST DETAILS The Upgrade: Deutsche Bank's new average forecast for 2026 stands at $4,450/oz, up from previous $4,000/oz. Bank anticipates gold to trade within range of $3,950 to $4,950 per ounce in 2026, with possible high near $4,950/oz - approximately 14% above current December 2026 futures prices Why They're Bullish: Key drivers: resilient investor demand, strong central-bank buying, limited supply response. Third-quarter supply-demand data supports continued central bank bid, with inelastic demand from central banks and ETF investment diverting supply from jewelry market. Overall growth in demand outpaces supply Gold's unusually wide trading range in 2025—the largest since 1980—underpins constructive outlook for 2026 📈 CURRENT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Market Structure: BULLISH CONSOLIDATION 🟢 Gold trading near two-week highs above $4,170 after recent rally. Consolidating gains before next move. Key Development: Gold shrugging off Tuesday's small dip and pushing to multi-day highs above $4,170 per troy ounce. Move higher comes as US Dollar loses steam, even though US Treasury yields trying to rebound Support Levels 🔵 Support 1: $4,130 - $4,140 (Yesterday's close - Immediate) Support 2: $4,059 - $4,100 (Strong zone) Support 3: $3,977 (55-day SMA) Support 4: $3,886 (October 28 low) Support 5: $3,750 (50% Fib retracement) Resistance Levels 🔴 Resistance 1: $4,170 - $4,173 (Current highs) Resistance 2: $4,245 (November 13 peak) Resistance 3: $4,254 - $4,280 (Major barrier) Resistance 4: $4,380 - $4,381 (All-time high - October 17) 📊 TECHNICAL INDICATORS RSI: Heading toward 60 (Bullish momentum building) 🟢 ADX: Holding above 19 (Trend slowly gaining strength) ✅ Moving Averages: All pointing UP - Bullish alignment ✅ For now, momentum still leans bullish: Relative Strength Index heading toward 60, and with Average Directional Index holding above 19, underlying trend looks like it's slowly gaining strength 🎯 TRADING STRATEGY FOR THANKSGIVING WEEK TODAY (Wednesday - Thanksgiving): ⚠️ DO NOT TRADE! Reasons: Markets closed Zero liquidity No meaningful price discovery High risk of gaps Best Action: Review your positions Plan for Friday/next week Take the day off! FRIDAY (Black Friday - Nov 28): Trade with EXTREME Caution! On November 28, XAUUSD may continue to rise, but price reversal still possible. Key support and resistance levels expected at $4,059.90 and $4,254.97 Strategy: Wait for normal hours to resume Use smaller position sizes Expect wider spreads Watch for gaps from Thursday close NEXT WEEK (December Trading): Back to Normal - Key Levels: BULLISH Scenario (65%): IF holds above $4,130-$4,140 Target: $4,245 → $4,280 → $4,380 Entry: Pullback to $4,140-$4,150 BEARISH Scenario (35%): IF breaks below $4,100 Target: $4,060 → $3,977 Entry: Break and retest of $4,100 🌍 FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK BULLISH FACTORS ⬆️⬆️⬆️ ✅ Deutsche Bank Upgrade - Major vote of confidence! ✅ Analysts predict gold may reach $4,456-$4,509 by end of November ✅ Central banks purchased 634 tonnes YTD, WGC expects 750-900 tonnes for 2025 ✅ Fed Rate Cut Expected - December odds rising ✅ Dollar Weakness - DXY losing momentum ✅ Demand > Supply - Structural bull market ✅ ETF Inflows - First net buying in 4 years ✅ Geopolitical Tensions - Safe-haven support Key Quote: Central banks planning record high gold allocations. Gold positioned as "ultimate protection against black swan tail risk events." ETFs returned to net accumulation in 2025 after four years of outflows Risk Factors ⬇️ ⚠️ Profit Taking - After 57% yearly gain ⚠️ Technical Overbought - Short-term ⚠️ Holiday Volatility - Thin markets ⚠️ Strong US Data - Could delay Fed cuts 💡 WEEK RECAP & OUTLOOK This Week's Performance: Current XAU/USD exchange rate: $4,155.98. Over past year, XAU/USD changed by 57.69%, trading within 52-week range of $2,583.49 to $4,381.60 Gold rose to $4,138.45 on November 25, up 0.07% from previous day. Over past month, gold's price risen 3.94%, up 57.22% compared to same time last year November Performance: ✅ Recovered from $3,886 low ✅ Now at $4,150+ (Multi-week highs) ✅ +3.94% for the month ✅ On track for analysts' $4,456-$4,509 target 🔮 FORECAST & TARGETS End of November (3 Days): Expected: $4,200-$4,300 range Target hit probability: 70% December 2025: Range: $4,150-$4,400 Target: Retest all-time high $4,381 2026 Targets (Deutsche Bank): Average: $4,450/oz Range: $3,950-$4,950 Potential High: $4,950 (+19% from current) Long-term (Other Analysts): Some forecasts: $5,000+ by late 2026 Ultra-bullish: $6,000+ by 2027-2028 🏆 PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY Gold is in a STRONG POSITION entering the holiday period. The Deutsche Bank upgrade is a major institutional endorsement of the bull market. The Big Picture: Technical: Bullish trend intact, consolidating at highs Fundamental: Demand > Supply, Central bank buying strong Sentiment: Major banks turning more bullish Positioning: Healthy after recent consolidation Key Insight: Gold's upward trajectory is structurally supported rather than merely cyclical This means the rally has LEGS - it's not just speculation, it's backed by real supply/demand fundamentals! 💪 TRADING PSYCHOLOGY - HOLIDAY EDITION Take a Break! Markets are closed, you should be too! Use today to: Spend time with family 🦃 Review your trading journal Plan for December Recharge your mental energy Remember: The best trade is sometimes NO trade! 🎯 POST-HOLIDAY TRADING PLAN Friday (Nov 28): ⚠️ Avoid trading (thin liquidity) Watch for any gaps Let market settle Monday (Dec 2): Resume normal trading Watch $4,140 support Target $4,245 if bullish Key Levels to Watch: Above $4,170: Bullish → Target $4,245+ Below $4,130: Caution → Support at $4,100 📊 SUPPORT/RESISTANCE SUMMARY Critical Support: $4,130-$4,140 Strong Support: $4,100, $3,977 Weak Resistance: $4,170, $4,200 Strong Resistance: $4,245, $4,280, $4,380 Breakout Level: $4,245 (Opens $4,380 retest) Breakdown Level: $4,100 (Triggers correction) 🔔 THANKSGIVING MESSAGE Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃 Whether you're trading gold or not, take time today to be grateful. The markets will be here tomorrow, next week, and next year. But today is for family, friends, and reflection. Three Things to Be Grateful For in Trading: Opportunity - Markets give us chances every day Learning - Every trade teaches us something Community - We're all in this together! Enjoy your day! 🙏 ⚠️ FINAL REMINDERS For Today: Markets CLOSED ❌ No trading possible Relax and recharge 🦃 For Friday: Shortened hours Very low volume Trade with extreme caution Smaller positions For Next Week: U.S. third-quarter GDP data may influence gold prices Back to normal volume December rate decision approaching Year-end positioning begins 📈 YEAR-END OUTLOOK December Catalysts: Fed rate decision (Dec 17-18) Year-end positioning Q4 GDP data Holiday season (thin trading Dec 24-Jan 1) 2026 Setup: With Deutsche Bank's $4,450 target and bullish structure, gold entering 2026 with strong momentum! 🦃 Happy Thanksgiving from the Trading Desk! 📱 Enjoy the holiday - markets resume Friday 💎 Stay blessed and grateful 🙏 See you next week for December trading! #Gold #XAUUSD #Thanksgiving #DeutscheBank #BullMarket #GoldForecast #HappyThanksgiving #MarketHoliday #2026Outlook #TradingBreak
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AthensBySahan
Gold Is Preparing for Its Next Major BreakoutHello everyone, Looking at the chart — and combining it with how fast macro signals are shifting — gold feels like a machine that’s just been recharged. In only two sessions, the price surged more than 120 USD even while the US Dollar Index stayed above 100. That’s a very clear sign that capital is choosing gold before the Fed makes any move. The market is now pricing in nearly an 83% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% on 10 December. This is no longer a vague expectation. Fed officials like Waller and Williams have softened their tone, signalling willingness to support cuts if the data doesn’t run too hot. When expected interest rates fall, gold essentially steps onto a “fast lane”: lower holding costs and stronger inflows from both defensive and speculative money. That’s why I’m leaning toward one scenario: gold continues to rise. If the price pulls back to 4,140–4,130 or even 4,120, I see these moves as healthy retracements — not signs of reversal. Once buying pressure returns, I expect gold to break above 4,160, move toward 4,200, and potentially expand into the 4,230–4,250 USD/oz region. What about you? Are you waiting for a pullback or planning to trade the breakout?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Momonoo
Gold Just Hit the Ceiling — Major Drop Loading?Gold appears to have completed its move for now, having posted a high today exactly as anticipated. At this stage, we believe a potential top may already be in place, and we will now be looking for bearish confirmation. Our downside target remains around the 3650 area by 10th December 2025, which would complete the expected zigzag correction before a strong bounce from that zone. Notably, 10th December is also a key Gann date and coincides with the FOMC meeting, creating a powerful confluence of timing factors. Our invalidation level is 4245 — a break above this level would negate the bearish scenario and open the door to significantly higher prices.
TVC:GOLD
by VitalDirection
Report 26/11/25Report Summary Kyiv has told Washington it is prepared to sign a U.S.-drafted framework to end the war, a plan that, crucially, was informed by consultations with the Kremlin. The Wall Street Journal reports the draft came from the Trump administration’s special envoy and that Moscow’s input shaped key sections; the White House sees it as the fastest path to halt fighting and unlock reconstruction finance. Ukraine’s signal of receptivity is the first clear public step toward a negotiated endgame in many months.  Independent reporting indicates the U.S. draft is broadly consistent with a stream of “peace principles” circulated to allies this month; terms range from cease-fire and demilitarized zones to security guarantees and phased sanctions relief tied to compliance. Reuters confirms a U.S.-backed proposal is in play and being briefed in allied capitals. Markets responded with a familiar “risk-on in cyclicals / risk-off in defense & energy beta” intraday pattern, while the Journal’s markets desk flagged choppy equity trade into the U.S. holiday week as investors weighed the peace headlines against a heavy AI earnings calendar and delayed labor data. A parallel European track matters for financing: Brussels is pushing ahead with an EU plan to mobilize the windfall profits from frozen Russian assets into a large loan program for Kyiv, despite U.S. proposals that would channel more of those assets into American-led investment vehicles. If EU leaders sign off, that structure would provide multi-year disbursements and legal cover for European banks to participate. Together, the diplomatic movement and funding design shift the distribution of macro risks away from a prolonged attrition war toward a negotiated freeze with staged sanctions relief, still highly uncertain, but credible enough for markets to begin repricing tail risks. Macro context you should factor in now Europe’s growth engine is sputtering. In a notably blunt speech, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned the bloc’s “old” export-heavy model has become a vulnerability, urging policymakers to remove internal market barriers and strengthen domestic demand; she underscored that six years of inaction would lock in a lower growth path. That stance implies a bias to keep rates on hold and to lean on structural policy rather than monetary easing to revive growth. At the same time, Vanguard cautions that markets are pricing too many Fed cuts for 2026–27 given the ongoing AI-capex boom that is supporting U.S. growth and may limit how far policy can ease without reigniting inflation. In Asia, Japan’s new prime minister Sanae Takaiichi has unveiled a ¥21.3tn (≈$135bn) package, Japan’s largest since the pandemic, mixing household subsidies with tax cuts. The fiscal impulse has pushed JGB yields to multi-decade highs and kept the yen under pressure, even as foreign investors stepped in to buy long-dated paper at the fastest pace in more than two decades. Expect the MoF/BoJ to keep FX-intervention optionality alive if volatility spikes. Finally, Western capitals are coordinating a response to Chinese steel overcapacity, an OECD-anchored process that could harden into tariff-quota regimes in 2026. That’s a medium-term positive for EU/U.S. steel margins, but it’s also another wedge in the global goods dis-inflation story and one more lever on bilateral frictions. Market reactions and positioning (near-term, then 3–12 months) S&P 500 / Dow Jones. Equity indices traded choppy but resilient as investors rotated within cyclicals: a cease-fire path reduces left-tail risks on energy costs and European growth, while AI capex continues to anchor U.S. earnings visibility. Into year-end, breadth should improve if peace odds rise and if bond volatility eases alongside Japan’s policy clarity. Base case: mild multiple support and “quality-cyclical” leadership (industrials, select financials) over pure defensives. Risk case: talks stall and oil spikes; or U.S. data re-accelerate too much, forcing repricing of Fed cuts. DXY / USDJPY. The peace track is modestly dollar-negative through the energy channel and European risk premium, but Japan’s outsized fiscal push and high JGB term premia are yen-negative. Netting those, USDJPY likely remains bid on rallies unless BoJ signals faster balance-sheet adjustments or MoF intervenes. Watch the 150–158 corridor as intervention-risk territory. XAUUSD (Gold). A credible cease-fire path trims the geopolitical bid for gold at the margin; however, if markets scale back the number of Fed cuts after strong AI-led capex, real yields could firm and further cap upside. Conversely, any breakdown in talks or an escalation around sanctions-for-compliance would quickly restore safe-haven demand. Net: tactically neutral/slightly lower with strong dip buying below key moving averages. Crude oil. Risk premium eases on peace momentum and EU financing clarity. Brent’s downside is cushioned by OPEC+ discipline and low OECD commercial stocks, but the path of least resistance is lower volatility and a gradual grind toward the marginal-cost band if a freeze holds. Keep an eye on any carve-outs in the U.S. plan that adjust Russian export constraints; these would feed directly into term structure. European equities / banks. A peace pathway and EU loan architecture are constructive for battered EU cyclicals and select banks via lower energy costs, better NPL outlooks in CEE exposures, and potential steepening if fiscal overhangs are credibly financed. The counterweight is Lagarde’s “new model” push, which accepts slower trade-led growth—so stock selection will matter. Forecasts In the next 1–3 months, the negotiation calendar itself will drive variance. Expect alternating bursts of optimism and risk-off: drafts circulated to allies, leak-driven disputes over security guarantees, and EU legal work on the asset-profits loan will each move cross-assets. Base case (55%): a de-facto truce framework emerges with monitoring and staged sanctions relief linked to compliance; energy vol compresses; European PMI troughs look durable. Bear case (30%): talks stall on territory/sequencing; sanctions tighten; commodity vol revives. Bull case (15%): cease-fire plus rapid reconstruction commitments pull forward capex and Europe outperforms. On a 6–12 month horizon, the contours of post-war financing matter most. If the EU loan goes ahead, with windfall-profit capture from immobilized assets, it creates a predictable disbursement channel that encourages private lenders to re-enter Ukrainian infrastructure and housing with multilateral guarantees—a modest positive impulse for European capital-goods and specialty materials. U.S. domestic politics will determine whether Washington emphasizes sanctions relaxation for compliance (market-friendly) or leans on secondary sanctions to enforce terms (dollar-positive, EM risk-negative). Fiscal and political implications For Europe, Lagarde’s call to dismantle internal market barriers and double-down on domestic strengths signals less willingness to “buy growth” with rate cuts and more pressure on capitals to pursue supply-side reforms. That stance, combined with a Ukraine-funding mechanism housed in EU law, should keep periphery spreads contained so long as growth doesn’t undershoot. For the U.S., an endgame that pares back energy volatility and reduces headline inflation noise helps the Fed achieve disinflation without over-easing. Vanguard’s warning on “too many cuts priced” suggests a risk that the policy path stays firmer for longer if AI-capex remains torrid, supportive of the dollar versus low-yielders, but not versus a reforming Europe if energy risk fades. For Japan, the stimulus-driven rise in yields, paired with foreign demand for duration, underscores a regime change away from yield-curve-control: global term premia will take their cue from JGBs as much as from U.S. Treasurys on big days. FX-intervention risk rises with each new fiscal headline if USDJPY surges into the high-150s. Key risks to monitor First, talks unravel: if territorial language or sequencing of sanctions relief becomes a deal-breaker, oil and gold spike, the dollar catches a safety bid, and European equities underperform again. Second, EU legal friction: if member-state courts or the ECB contest the asset-profits loan structure, Ukraine financing could slip, risking a cohesion shock. Third, policy mistake in Japan: an overly large supplementary budget or clumsy signaling could disorder the JGB market and spill into global rates, pressuring long-duration equity multiples. Fourth, trade flare-ups: coordinated steel defenses in 2026 would be inflation-neutral to slightly positive and geopolitically sensitive if China retaliates. Actionable takeaways by asset XAUUSD: Fade spikes on positive-headline days; keep a core tail-risk hedge given non-trivial negotiation failure risk. Correlation to real yields likely reasserts if peace odds rise. S&P 500 / Dow: Favor quality cyclicals (industrials, rails, select banks with EU/CEE exposure) and capex beneficiaries; underweight pure energy beta until the talks path is clearer. USDJPY / DXY: Maintain a buy-the-dip bias in USDJPY with tight risk controls around known MoF-watch levels; DXY path modestly lower if Europe’s energy risk premium collapses, but resilient versus JPY. Crude: Expect lower vol and mild contango if cease-fire contours harden; hedge upside tails via call spreads into each major negotiating round. European equities: If EU financing clears and peace momentum holds, rotate toward European capital-goods, building materials, and quality small/mid financials; avoid names most levered to wartime energy spreads.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku
XAU/USD – Gold Maintains Uptrend, Monitor Reaction at FvG⏰ Timeframe: 30m 📅 Update: 25/11/2025 🔍 Market Context After breaking the downtrend structure and creating consecutive bullish CHoCH, gold is maintaining above the Break–FvG zone at 4,107 USD, indicating that buying pressure is still controlling the recovery phase. The price is in a reaccumulation phase after the break, and it is likely to need a short pullback to "gain momentum" towards the extended resistance zone above. 📊 Technical Structure FvG Zone (4,107 USD): newly formed balance zone – acts as the main BUY Zone, where price reactions can be observed for quick scalping opportunities. Break Structure: confirms active buying flow after a series of CHoCH, shifting short-term bias to bullish. Target Expansion: the 4,188 → 4,228 USD range is an extended resistance band, coinciding with Fibonacci 1.272–1.618. 💎 Key Levels 🟢 Main Support (Support Zones): • 4,067 USD – technical balance bottom, the last defense zone. • 4,084 USD – secondary support, confluence with Fibo 0.382. • 4,107 USD – main FvG zone, monitor reaction for buy scalp. • 4,131 USD – dynamic support in the recovery cycle. 🔴 Resistance (Resistance Zones): • 4,155 – 4,165 USD → intermediate resistance zone, potential short-term profit-taking when price reacts. • 4,188 USD → confluence with Fibo 1.272 – short-term SELL Zone. • 4,203 – 4,211 USD → extended supply zone, monitor reaction before the US session. • 4,228 USD → extended resistance, the final target of the current uptrend. 🎯 Market Outlook 1️⃣ Priority Scenario:  – Price may retest the FvG zone – 4,107 USD, then bounce to test resistances 4,155 → 4,188 → 4,228.  – Prioritize monitoring reactions – quick scalping at resistance zones, avoid holding long positions as price approaches 4,211–4,228. 2️⃣ Alternative Scenario:  – If price closes below 4,107 USD, it may reopen the lower balance zone around 4,067 USD. 🧠 Analyst’s View The market structure leans towards bullish continuation, but the upper zone is approaching a dense resistance cluster – suitable for reactive trading strategies:  → Observe reactions at each zone to "scalp with the flow," rather than trying to hold the trend. As long as price maintains above 4,107 USD, the priority remains buy-the-dip – take-profit-on-resistance. 🛡️ Risk Note Short-term volatility is expanding – clear candle reaction confirmation is needed before taking action. Analysis is for technical and educational purposes, not investment advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Goldscale-Capital
XAU/USD – Bullish Structure Intact as Price Retests Key HigherXAU/USD – Bullish Structure Intact as Price Retests Key Higher-Low Support Gold continues to hold a solid bullish structure on the H1 timeframe, with price forming a clean higher low around 4128–4132 and bouncing strongly along the short-term rising trendline. The 9-EMA is pointing upward, confirming steady buying momentum. This structure indicates that buyers are preparing for the next bullish expansion as long as price stays above the 4128–4135 support base. Key Technical Levels Major Support 4132 – 4128: Newly formed higher low and the strongest intraday demand zone. 4060 – 4030: Deep support, only tested if a strong correction occurs. Major Resistance 4163 – 4167: Short-term resistance that needs to break for bullish continuation. 4207 – 4210: Fibonacci extension target and main upside objective. Price Action & Momentum Price consistently bounces from the 9-EMA → active buying pressure. Rising trendline remains intact → bullish momentum sustained. Small corrective candles near 4163 reflect weakening supply. Bullish Trading Strategies (Primary Bias) Scenario 1 – Buy the Retest (High-Probability Setup) Wait for price to pull back into 4132 – 4135 Confirmation signals: pin bar, engulfing, or RSI holding above 50 Entry: 4132 – 4138 Stop Loss: below 4125 TP1: 4163 TP2: 4207 Scenario 2 – Breakout Entry Buy after a clean H1 candle close above 4167 SL: 4148 TP: 4207 Bearish Scenario (If Market Invalidates Bullish Bias) Only consider selling if: Price breaks and closes below 4125 (H1 close) Downside targets: 4080 → 4060 Market Outlook The intraday trend remains strongly bullish, with expectations for an upside continuation toward the 4200+ zone. Watch closely how price reacts around 4163–4167 to confirm the next leg up.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion