XAU/USD – Retracement Before Next Leg UpGold (XAU/USD) has pulled back after testing the upper boundary of the descending trendline around US $4,230–4,250. The rejection there was expected, as this level has acted as a major dynamic resistance since early October. Despite the drop, price is still trading within a broader ascending channel, suggesting that the current move is a healthy retracement inside an ongoing uptrend.
Potential W-shaped correction forming, with multiple buy invalidation levels highlighted. This structure often appears mid-trend when the market is resetting liquidity before continuation.
🧠 Technical Outlook
Price remains inside the rising channel, respecting both upper and lower boundaries.
The rejection at the descending trendline aligns perfectly with previous swing highs — a natural area for sellers.
A deeper pullback into the 4,000–4,020 region is possible before buyers step back in.
If the W-correction completes, a bounce from the lower channel boundary could send price back toward 4,160–4,200, and eventually retest the descending trendline again.
Buy Invalidation #1: A break below 4,000 weakens the bullish structure.
Buy Invalidation #3: A break below 3,900–3,880 fully invalidates the upside scenario and opens the door to deeper declines.
The overall structure still favors bullish continuation, as long as price stays above the lower channel line.
🌍 Fundamental View – November 2025
Fed Outlook: The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged in late October but signaled openness to rate cuts in early 2026 as economic data cools. This continues to underpin gold sentiment.
USD & Yields: The U.S. dollar has shown a mild rebound this week, creating short-term pressure on gold — aligning with the current dip on the chart.
Inflation: Sticky inflation around 3.2% limits how high real yields can climb, helping maintain gold’s medium-term bullish bias.
Geopolitics: Persistent tensions across the Middle East keep safe-haven demand stable, contributing to deep pullbacks being bought quickly.
In short, the fundamentals still support gold’s broader uptrend, even if a short-term correction unfolds.
⚖️ Trading Plan
Bias: Bullish continuation after a corrective pullback
Watch Zone for Buys: 4,000–4,020 (channel support & correction completion zone)
Upside Targets:
4,160
4,200
Retest of 4,230–4,250 descending trendline
Invalidation Levels:
#1: Below 4,000 (structure weakens)
#3: Below 3,900–3,880 (bullish idea invalid)
Summary:
Gold is correcting inside a rising channel, and as long as price holds above the lower boundary, the structure favors another bullish leg toward 4,160–4,250. The W-pattern on your chart supports a scenario where buyers re-enter after liquidity is swept from lower levels.
