GOLD On The Rise! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for GOLD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 4125.1
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 4139.79
Recommended Stop Loss - 4117.21
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Trade ideas
Gold faces a test at 4100; time to prepare for positioningGold’s Downtrend Intensifies:
The decline in gold has accelerated, with the previous support at $4,150 now decisively broken. Based on prior price action, the next key support is located near $4,100, a level that the market tested twice during the earlier consolidation phase but failed to break, indicating strong structural support.
At the same time, the ascending trendline also converges near this area, adding further reinforcement to the support zone.
Therefore, $4,100 can be considered the key pivot level going forward. Should this level be breached, gold could face deeper downside risk, with a potential move back toward the $4,000 psychological level not out of the question.
However, as noted, the $4,100 area carries significant support, so monitoring the price reaction closely will be crucial. If this level holds, long positions may be considered.
If $4,100 breaks decisively, I believe momentum shorts (trend continuation trades) become viable.
Gold bullish breakout resistance at 4250The Gold remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action indicating a potential breakout rally within the broader trend.
Support Zone: 4120 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 4120 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
4250 – initial resistance
4297 – psychological and structural level
4350 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 4120 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
4090 – minor support
4045 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Gold holds above 4120. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gold Slightly Adjusts, Monitoring Pullback to 4,151 USD Support📊 Market Structure
After the Break of Structure (BoS) at the 4,208 USD zone, gold confirms the continuation of the upward trend and is forming a technical adjustment.
The price has touched the Resistance Zone of 4,208 – 4,237 USD and is currently adjusting as expected, heading towards the Support Zone of 4,151 USD – this is where a previous impulsive move originated.
Below the 4,151 Support, there is a strong OB at 4,104 USD.
As long as the price does not break deeply below 4,104 USD, the bullish structure remains intact.
💎 Key Technical Zones
• Resistance Zone: 4,208 – 4,237 USD → supply zone + area of bearish reaction
• Support Zone: 4,151 USD → area awaiting bullish reaction
• Strong OB + Support: 4,104 – 4,110 USD → base of bullish structure
• Liquidity Zone (Target): 4,260+ USD → area for the next wave expansion
🎯 Trading Plan
1️⃣ BUY Setup – Trend Following
If the price adjusts correctly to the discount zones:
• Entry 1: 4,151 USD
• Entry 2: 4,104 USD (most attractive zone – confluence OB)
SL: below 4,090 USD
TP1: 4,208
TP2: 4,237
TP3: 4,260
→ Main strategy: wait for pullback → re-enter the upward wave → follow the strong trend.
2️⃣ SELL Scalp – Reaction at Resistance (counter-trend)
If the price retests the 4,208 – 4,237 zone and creates a clear rejection:
Entry: 4,218 – 4,230
SL: 4,245
TP1: 4,180
TP2: 4,151
→ Setup only for flexible traders, short trades, no holding positions.
🧠 Vincent’s View
The current structure is very precise:
Impulsive Move → Short-term Distribution → Pullback to Support → Continuation of the upward wave.
The 4,151 USD zone is the focal point to observe.
The 4,104 USD zone is the most attractive BUY area if the market seeks deeper liquidity.
As long as the price does not break 4,104 USD, the buyers maintain complete advantage.
“Let the pullback come to you — structure always tells the truth.” ⚜️
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Updated: 14/11/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
GOLD HOLDS STRONG ABOVE $4,200! 🚀 XAUUSD DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS
Thursday, November 14, 2025
💰 GOLD HOLDS STRONG ABOVE $4,200! 📈
Current Price: $4,189 - $4,235 💎
Yesterday's Close: $4,231 (+0.86%)
Weekly Gain: +5.4% (MASSIVE!) 🔥
Status: 🟢 CONSOLIDATING AT HIGHS
🎯 MARKET UPDATE - WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW?
Gold is CONSOLIDATING above the critical $4,200 level after yesterday's explosive breakout! The market is catching its breath after a 5-day winning streak that pushed prices up over $330 from last month's lows.
Key Developments:
✅ Government Shutdown ENDED - US House passed funding bill
✅ Strong Above $4,200 - Holding key psychological level
✅ Fed Rate Cut at 80% - Economists now predicting December cut
✅ Four Consecutive Green Days - Bullish momentum intact
✅ Testing $4,235 - Approaching critical resistance zone
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Market Structure: BULLISH CONSOLIDATION 🟢
The rally has paused for a healthy consolidation. This is NORMAL and HEALTHY after a 5.4% weekly gain. Gold is building a base for the next leg up!
Key Observation: Price is respecting the $4,189-$4,235 range today - this is a coiling pattern before the next move.
Critical Support Levels (BUY ZONES) 🔵
Support 1: $4,189 - $4,200 (MAJOR - Former resistance)
Support 2: $4,157 - $4,160 (Strong base)
Support 3: $4,114 - $4,120 (Key level)
Support 4: $4,048 - $4,060 (Breakout point)
Support 5: $3,987 - $4,002 (November open)
Key Resistance Levels (SELL/TARGET ZONES) 🔴
Resistance 1: $4,235 - $4,243 (Current test)
Resistance 2: $4,252 - $4,254 (Critical breakout level)
Resistance 3: $4,313 - $4,320 (Next target)
Resistance 4: $4,356 - $4,382 (All-time high zone)
📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS
RSI (14): 64 (Bullish but cooling - Room to move higher) ✅
MACD: Positive and rising - Strong bullish signal ✅
Stochastic: Neutral zone - Allows for upward movement ✅
Moving Averages:
Price WELL ABOVE all EMAs ✅
EMA 20/50/200 all aligned bullish ✅
Golden Cross confirmed ✅
Volume: Strong on rallies, lighter on dips (Healthy) ✅
Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band - Volatility expansion mode
🎯 TODAY'S TRADING STRATEGIES
SCENARIO 1: BREAKOUT CONTINUATION 🚀 (65% Probability)
IF Gold Breaks Above $4,252:
This is the CRITICAL LEVEL to watch! A close above $4,252 signals resumption of the major uptrend.
LONG Setup:
Entry: Break and close above $4,252 with volume
Targets:
TP1: $4,313 📍 (+60 pips)
TP2: $4,356 📍 (+104 pips)
TP3: $4,382 📍 (+130 pips - All-time high retest)
Stop Loss: $4,210 (Below consolidation)
Risk/Reward: Excellent 1:3+ ratio ✅
SCENARIO 2: HEALTHY PULLBACK 📉 (35% Probability)
IF Gold Breaks Below $4,189:
A pullback would be healthy and provide better entry opportunities.
BUY THE DIP Strategy:
Entry Zone 1: $4,157-$4,170 (Best value)
Entry Zone 2: $4,114-$4,120 (Strong support)
Targets:
TP1: $4,200 📍
TP2: $4,243 📍
TP3: $4,280 📍
Stop Loss: Below $4,100
⚠️ NOTE: Dips are BUYING opportunities in this bullish trend!
💎 BEST TRADE SETUP FOR TODAY
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Recommended) 🎯
WAIT for one of these clear setups:
Option A - Breakout Trade:
Entry: Above $4,252 (confirmed break)
Target: $4,313 → $4,356
SL: $4,210
Option B - Pullback Trade:
Entry: $4,157-$4,170 (on dip)
Target: $4,243 → $4,280
SL: $4,135
DO NOT CHASE at $4,220-$4,240! Wait for clear direction.
🌍 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
BULLISH CATALYSTS ⬆️⬆️⬆️
✅ Fed Rate Cut Odds: 80% - Economists now strongly expect December cut
✅ Government Reopening - But delayed data creates uncertainty = Gold support
✅ Missing Economic Data - October CPI/jobs reports delayed/may never release
✅ Weak Labor Market - 11,000+ weekly job losses continue
✅ Dollar Weakness - DXY struggling at resistance
✅ Central Bank Demand - 634 tonnes purchased YTD, expecting 750-900 total
✅ ETF Inflows - $64 billion added in 2025
✅ Safe-Haven Demand - Geopolitical tensions persist
Risk Factors ⬇️
⚠️ Overbought Short-Term - RSI 64, near 70 threshold
⚠️ Profit Taking Risk - After 5-day rally (+5.4%)
⚠️ Resistance Zone - $4,235-$4,252 is strong barrier
⚠️ Data Clarity - If delayed data shows strength, could pressure gold
🔥 MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH WITH CAUTION
Analyst Consensus:
Short-term: Consolidation before next leg (Most likely)
Medium-term: Target $4,300-$4,400
Long-term: $4,700-$5,000 by 2026 (UBS/Goldman)
This Week:
Expected to test $4,252 resistance. Break above = Rally to $4,313+
End of November:
Analysts predict $4,230-$4,300 range
💡 PROFESSIONAL GAME PLAN
For DAY TRADERS:
⚡ Scalp the Range - Trade between $4,189-$4,235 with tight stops (20-30 pip targets)
Buy: $4,190-$4,200
Sell: $4,230-$4,235
Breakout: Above $4,252 → GO LONG aggressively
For SWING TRADERS:
📊 Wait for Clarity
Either breakout above $4,252 → Hold to $4,356
Or pullback to $4,157 → Buy for retest of $4,252
For LONG-TERM INVESTORS:
💎 Accumulate on Dips
Target: $4,150-$4,180 range
Goal: Hold for $4,500+ (2026 target)
Strategy: Dollar-cost averaging
📅 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH
THIS WEEK:
🎤 FOMC Speakers - Watch for rate cut signals
📊 Economic Data - Delayed reports may start releasing
🏛️ Government Funding - Impact on market sentiment
NEXT WEEK:
📈 November 21 - US Manufacturing & Services PMI
🎬 BOTTOM LINE (TL;DR)
Price: $4,189-$4,235 (Consolidating)
Bias: 🟢 BULLISH (Pullbacks are buying opportunities)
Key Level: $4,252 (Break this = Rally resumes)
Best Action: WAIT for breakout above $4,252 OR dip to $4,157
Risk Level: MEDIUM-HIGH (Volatility expected)
🔔 TODAY'S CRITICAL LEVELS
DO NOT CHASE between $4,220-$4,240!
BUY SIGNALS:
✅ Break above $4,252 with volume → GO LONG
✅ Dip to $4,157-$4,170 → BUY THE DIP
SELL SIGNAL:
❌ Break below $4,114 → Exit longs, potential reversal
NEUTRAL ZONE:
⚪ Between $4,189-$4,235 → Wait for direction
📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Trend: STRONGLY BULLISH ⬆️
Momentum: STRONG (but cooling) ⚡
Support: SOLID at $4,189-$4,200 🛡️
Resistance: TOUGH at $4,252 🚧
Pattern: Ascending channel with bullish flag forming
Next Move: Break $4,252 → Target $4,313-$4,382
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT RULES
✅ Position Size: Max 2% risk per trade
✅ Stop Loss: ALWAYS required - No exceptions!
✅ Take Profits: Lock 50% at TP1, trail rest
✅ Don't Chase: Wait for your setup patiently
✅ Respect $4,252: This is the make-or-break level
🎯 SWING TRADE SETUP (Multi-Day Hold)
Setup A - Breakout Play:
Entry: $4,254-$4,260 (after confirmed break)
Target 1: $4,313 (Hold 2-3 days)
Target 2: $4,356 (Hold 5-7 days)
Target 3: $4,382 (Hold 1-2 weeks)
Stop Loss: $4,210
Setup B - Pullback Play:
Entry: $4,150-$4,170 (if it dips)
Target 1: $4,243 (Hold 3-5 days)
Target 2: $4,313 (Hold 1 week)
Stop Loss: $4,120
🏆 PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Gold has successfully rallied 5.4% this week and is now consolidating at the $4,200 psychological level. This is textbook healthy behavior after a strong rally.
The Setup:
Consolidation forms a bull flag pattern
Next move determines short-term direction
$4,252 is the line in the sand
Most Likely Scenario:
Brief consolidation (1-2 days) → Break above $4,252 → Rally to $4,313-$4,356
Alternative Scenario:
Healthy pullback to $4,157-$4,170 → Strong bounce → Retest $4,252
Either way, the TREND IS UP! 📈
💪 TRADING PSYCHOLOGY TIP
After a big rally, markets MUST consolidate. Don't panic if price pulls back slightly. Use dips as OPPORTUNITY, not fear. The trend is your friend - and this trend is BULLISH! 🚀
🎓 LESSON: THE BULL FLAG PATTERN
What we're seeing now is a BULL FLAG:
✅ Strong rally (flagpole) - Done
✅ Consolidation (flag) - Happening now
⏳ Breakout (continuation) - Coming soon!
Action: Wait for flag breakout above $4,252, then go LONG!
🔮 FORECAST
Today: Range between $4,180-$4,240
Tomorrow: Test of $4,252 or pullback to $4,157
This Week: Break $4,252 → Rally to $4,300+
End November: $4,280-$4,350 range
December: Potential retest of all-time high $4,382
⚠️ FINAL DISCLAIMER
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Trading gold and forex involves substantial risk of loss. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Always use proper risk management including stop losses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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Nov 14, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis:
On the higher timeframes, there are early signs of a potential reversal,
but on the lower timeframes, bearish pressure is weakening and bullish momentum is starting to show.
For today’s Asian session, the main plan is to buy pullbacks into support as long as 4174 holds.
Watch 4219 — if price breaks above this level, bullish momentum may take control.
If price breaks below 4174, the plan switches to selling rallies into resistance.
As it’s Friday, volatility and unpredictability may increase — trade cautiously and manage risk tightly.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 4245 – Resistance
• 4219 – Resistance
• 4207–4211 – Resistance zone
• 4200 – Psychological level
• 4187 – Support
• 4183 – Support
• 4174 – Key intraday support
• 4161 – Support
• 4145 – Major support
📈 Intraday Strategy:
SELL: If price breaks below 4174 → target 4170, with further downside toward 4161, 4153, 4145
BUY: If price holds above 4196 → target 4200, with further upside toward 4207, 4211, 4219
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) – 4‑H Chart Update (Nov 13, 2025)Gold Spot (XAU/USD) – 4‑H Chart Update (Nov 13 2025)
**Current price:** ~4 223.76
**Recent movement:** The market rallied strongly from the 4 000 area over the past week, climbing back above 4 200 and currently trading near 4 224. Momentum remains positive but the price has just entered an area of overhead resistance.
---
#### Key zones & levels
* **Double Top/Bottom High (4 381.51) & 4‑hour SR (4 356.02):**
These purple lines mark the high of a previous double-top formation and a corresponding 4‑hour support/resistance level. If the uptrend continues, this area could act as a major supply zone; a clean break above 4 356 would signal renewed bullish strength toward 4 400+.
* **Vfi Sell Zone & Weekly SR (4 266.91–4 280):**
This red band is a confluence of a weekly support/resistance level and a sell zone identified by your Vfi indicator. Price briefly tested this region before pulling back. Watch how price behaves if it retests this zone—rejection could trigger a corrective move, while a decisive close above 4 280 would open the way toward the higher resistance band.
* **Immediate resistance (4 238.95):**
A 4‑hour SR line lies just above the current price. This level has already been tested intraday. Sustained trading above 4 238 would strengthen the near‑term bullish case; failure to reclaim it may encourage sellers.
* **Mid‑range support cluster (4 206.43 & 4 194.65):**
The dashed green lines denote the daily open (approx. 4 206) and another 4‑hour support/resistance level (~4 195). This zone could act as minor support on pullbacks. A break below might indicate a deeper retracement toward the next support band.
* **Daily / ¼‑hour TJL support (4 125.79):**
A broader green band around 4 126 is highlighted as a strong demand zone. If the market corrects, buyers may look for reaction here; it coincides with a prior consolidation area.
* **Major support (4 000.48):**
A weekly SR at 4 000 (pink) marks the lower bound of the recent range. A break below would negate the current bullish structure and put focus back on the swing low at 3 886.28.
---
#### Potential scenarios
1. **Bullish continuation:**
* Price holds above 4 206–4 195 and reclaims 4 238.95.
* An upside break of the Vfi sell zone (4 266–4 280) could extend the rally toward the double‑top area (4 356–4 381).
* Watch for strong volume and momentum on any breakout.
2. **Range/bearish pullback:**
* Failure to close above 4 238 leads to consolidation between 4 238 and 4 206.
* A break below 4 206–4 195 would target the green support band around 4 125.
* Loss of 4 125 opens risk for a deeper correction toward the weekly SR at 4 000.
---
**Note:** This analysis is for educational purposes. Always incorporate your own risk management and confirm signals before taking any trades.
Gold: Watch Support Near 4168 and Resistance at 4252With strong rate-cut expectations combined with heightened geopolitical tensions, gold’s safe-haven appeal has been significantly reinforced, pushing prices back above the 4200 level. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, gold still has considerable upside potential, with some voices in the market even calling for a move toward 5000.
In the short term, the U.S. government is about to resume operations, and the delayed economic data will soon be released. The market widely expects these reports to confirm a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, the White House has cautioned that October’s employment and inflation data may not be published on time due to the disruption caused by the shutdown. This uncertainty has further intensified concerns about the economic outlook, providing continuous support for gold’s upward momentum.
However, it’s worth noting that the policies and data released after the government’s reopening remain uncertain. The market has already priced in a considerable portion of bullish expectations. If the actual results align with these expectations, the short-term upside could be limited; if they diverge, a corrective pullback would be likely. Therefore, proper risk management is essential to navigate potential volatility.
Technical Outlook:
On the daily chart, moving averages show a strong bullish alignment. The current uptrend is supported by the MA5 (around 4127), while the key support lies near the MA30 (around 4074). The MACD has formed a bullish crossover, and the price is moving between the Bollinger Bands’ middle line (4075) and upper band (4298).
This means that during the price consolidation around 4200, key supports to watch are 4150–4127 and the middle band near 4075. (Indicator levels may shift as volatility increases, so real-time monitoring is recommended.)
On the 1-hour chart, the main supports are 4168/4152/4138. As long as these levels hold, gold still has room to test 4223–4250 in the short term. With supportive news catalysts, a move toward 4300 cannot be ruled out.
Overall, next week’s market will likely see heightened volatility. Opportunity and risk coexist — those who manage position size and timing well could see their profits multiply, while those lacking discipline and risk awareness could face severe drawdowns or even liquidation.
Gold Prices Face Pressure at High Levels, Awaiting Breakthrough Gold Prices Face Pressure at High Levels, Awaiting Breakthrough of Key Resistance! Fed Rate Cut Expectations Support Medium- to Long-Term Uptrend
Market Review: On Wednesday (November 12th) during the Asian session, spot gold was under slight pressure, hovering below a three-week high, currently trading around $4106.24 per ounce, down about 0.5%. Gold prices are hesitant before breaking through the $4150-$4155 resistance level, and the market is awaiting further directional guidance.
Fundamental Analysis:
1. Macroeconomic Sentiment Supports Gold Prices: Investors generally expect weak US economic data, delayed due to the prolonged US government shutdown, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further in December. This dovish expectation is putting pressure on the dollar, which is currently holding near a two-week low, providing key support for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
2. Improved Risk Appetite Limits Gains: Positive progress in the reopening of the US government has boosted global risk appetite, curbing further bets on gold as a safe haven. The market is closely watching speeches by several key Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday evening for clues about the future path of interest rates. These statements will significantly impact the dollar and gold prices.
3. Rate Cut Expectations and Demand Outlook
The market's current expectation of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to 64%. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle stated on Monday that a 50 basis point rate cut in December might be appropriate given the weak labor market and slowing inflation. Furthermore, institutions predict that gold demand this year and next will reach its strongest level since 2011, providing a solid foundation for the medium- to long-term trend of gold prices.
4. Events to Watch Today
No major economic data is scheduled for release today. The market's focus is on speeches by Federal Reserve officials during the US session, including:
FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams
2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson
Fed Governor Waller
US Treasury Secretary Bessant
Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Federal Reserve Governor Milan early the following morning
If the officials' speeches are generally dovish, it is expected to further benefit gold.
Technical Analysis
Trend Structure
Gold has rebounded strongly since bottoming at $3886, currently rising to around $4150, a gain of approximately $265, initially showing signs of a technical correction.
The current price faces significant resistance in the $4150-$4160 area, which is the starting point of the second wave of the decline from $4380. Failure to break through this level may lead to short-term consolidation.
Key Price Levels
Resistance: $4145-$4150
Support: $4095-$4100
Short-Term Trend
On the 1-hour chart, after a pullback in the Asian session, the MACD has turned downwards again, showing a death cross signal, and the highs have slightly shifted lower, indicating weakening short-term upward momentum. However, the fast and slow lines are still above the zero line. If the price can hold the previous low of $4097, the bulls still have a chance to counterattack.
Trading Strategy
Overall Approach: Primarily buy on dips, secondarily sell on rallies, with strict risk management.
Short Selling Strategy
Entry Area: Short sell in batches between $4145 and $4150
Position Size: 20%
Stop Loss: 8 points
Target: $4110-$4100, with a further target of $4095 if the price breaks below.
Long Selling Strategy
Entry Area: Long buy in batches between $4095 and $4100
Position Size: 20%
Stop Loss: 8 points
Target: $4130-$4140, with a further target of $4150 if the price breaks above.
Reminder: Market conditions are constantly changing. Specific trading strategies should be adjusted based on real-time market signals. Investors are advised to strictly control their position size and strictly adhere to stop-loss orders to avoid the risk of holding losing positions.
Summary
Although gold prices face short-term technical correction pressure, the dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve and strong gold demand still support the medium- to long-term upward trend. If gold prices can find effective support in the $4090-$4100 area and ultimately break through the $4150-$4160 resistance zone, a new round of upward movement is expected.
gold await breakout#XAUUSD price have multi decline below the 4100, now on pattern reverse but the buy maybe trap depending how the upper range react.
Buy at 4135 on 2 times breakout, TP 4145-4161, SL 4123.
Breakout below the 4122-20 will drop the price down to 4093 which will reverse back to 4112 to sell continuation till 4079.
A GOOD CONFIRMATION BY 12PMWhat i see is we would likely sell today but it will push up a bit further maybe to somewhere 4130-35 before a sell but the sell confirmation will be at 12pm and 4pm , if market confirms sell by 12 then it will sell automatically but if it doesn't confirm sell by 12pm UTC a final confirmation will be at 4pm, from my technical perspective
#XAUUSD :Is it a Correction Or a start of Major Bearish Trend? Gold has plummeted from 3550 to 3270, and it’s been falling steadily. We firmly believe that the price could reverse from either of our entry points, but given its significant drop, it raises concerns among traders. If the trend has shifted to bearish, it will likely continue to target buyers’ stop losses. In these market conditions, we strongly advise trading with utmost caution and prioritising risk management.
Good luck and trade safely.
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XAU/USD: Rally Tests 4,155 as Pullback Risk BuildsXAU/USD extended its rally after breaking out of the range zone, now testing a confluence area near 4,155 within resistance. The structure forms a steep upward channel, with signs of short-term exhaustion near the upper boundary.
If price fails to hold above 4,150, a pullback toward 4,065–4,000 may follow. While the broader trend remains bullish, momentum appears stretched, hinting at a pause before continuation.
❗️ Risks:
– Break above 4,150 could extend gains to 4,220.
– Soft U.S. inflation may weaken USD and lift gold.
– Geopolitical tension could boost safe-haven flows, limiting downside.
XAUUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce off Key SupportMomentum: Bullish
Price is currently above the ichimoku cloud.
Buy entry: 4,010.78
- Strong pullback support
- 78.6% Fib retracement
- 161.8% Fib extension
Stop Loss: 3,928.49
- Multi-swing low support
Take Profit: 4,109.35
- Overlap resistance
High Risk Investment Warning
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LOOKING TO BUY INTO GOLD AGAINXAU/USD 1H - I think its time to start looking to buy into Gold again, as you can see on the left of the screenshot price has broken structure on the higher timeframes to the upside.
This has indicated an end to this bearish momentum and potentially the start of the next bull run. Now that price has come back down to correct itself fractally we have even more of an indication.
All we need now is further confluence which will come from Demand being injected into this market, as you can see we have had that, price has created a large bullish candle.
I would love to see price pullback now into a fractal Demand Zone, giving us the opportunity to get involved in this market with a more refined entry, time will tell though. We should be prepping for longs.
Gold’s Survival Zone: 4010–3998 Decides EverythingKey Levels for Today
Gold is trading at a decisive zone this morning:
4000–4004 → A clean break below this range opens the door toward 3945–3930.
Holding above 4000 → Keeps the bullish recovery scenario alive.
Break above 4055 → Signals strength returning, with upside targets at 4070 – 4085 – 4096 – 4111. Any sustained move above these levels indicates a potential continuation to higher zones.
Technical Overview
1H–3H timeframe:
Price is trading below all major moving averages (10/20/50/100/200) — a clear short-term bearish signal.
4H timeframe:
Gold is still receiving solid support near 4010.
Critical Zone (4010–3998):
This is a life-or-death area for gold today. Expect heavy “battle” here.
Failure to defend this zone will likely drive price directly toward 3945–3930.
Trade Levels & Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Long):
Entry: Above 4026 (risk from 4017)
Targets:
4036–4039 → 4045 → 4055 → 4068 → 4079–4083 → 4090 → 4097 → 4107 → 4127 → 4132
Bearish Scenario (Short):
Entry: Below 3998 (risk from 4007)
Targets:
3991 → 3985 → 3977 → 3970 → 3958 → 3943 → 3930 → 3921 → 3901
Final Notes:
If you find this analysis helpful, your comment or share truly makes a difference.
Disclaimer
This analysis reflects a personal technical and fundamental view. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation.Trading financial markets involves significant risk; all decisions are the sole responsibility of the trader.
Wishing everyone a profitable day and a successful trading week.
#GoldRider
ElDoradoFx – GOLD ANALYSIS (18/11/2025, ASIA SESSION)If you want:
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1️⃣ Market Overview
Gold enters the Asia session trading around $4,045, recovering slightly after sweeping liquidity at the $4,007–$4,011 weak low. Despite the rebound, the broader structure remains bearish, with price still below the major H1/H4 supply zone (4,066–4,100) and under a strong descending trendline.
Asia begins with corrective upside, but the dominant bias remains bearish unless a full structural break above $4,100 occurs.
⸻
2️⃣ Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1)
• Price is retesting the $4,028–$3,934 demand zone.
• Rejection at the descending trendline from the major swing high confirms ongoing bearish momentum.
• RSI (~51) is neutral.
• A daily close below $4,028 exposes $3,934 → $3,886.
• Holding above $4,028 keeps price inside corrective structure.
⸻
🔹 1H Chart
• Overall structure is bearish-to-neutral.
• Price remains below the 200 EMA, 50 EMA, and trendline confluence zone at $4,066–$4,100.
• Prior BOS from $4,120 confirms bearish control.
• RSI (~45) shows weak bullish momentum on the pullback.
⸻
🔹 15M–5M
• After sweeping $4,007, price made a CHoCH upward but stalled immediately at descending structure.
• Momentum is decreasing near intraday resistance.
• MACD shows weakening histogram on the pullback.
• Short-term uptrend still corrective inside a bearish macro move.
⸻
3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis
Last swing: 4,120 → 4,007
• 38.2% → 4,050
• 50.0% → 4,063
• 61.8% → 4,076
🎯 Fibonacci Golden Zone: 4,050 – 4,076
→ Confluence with supply + descending trendline = Strong SELL Region
⸻
4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios
📉 SELL SCENARIO (Main Bias)
• Sell Zone: 4,066 – 4,100
• Targets:
• 4,028
• 4,011
• 3,990
• Stop Loss: Above 4,115
• Confirmation:
• 5M/15M bearish rejection
• RSI divergence
• BOS from inside the zone
⸻
📈 BUY SCENARIO (Countertrend Only)
• Buy Zone: 4,011 – 4,007 (liquidity sweep region)
• Targets:
• 4,028
• 4,050
• 4,066
• Stop Loss: Below 3,998
• Confirmation:
• Clear CHoCH
• High-volume reversal candle
⸻
💥 Breakout BUY Setup
• Trigger: Break & close above 4,100
• Retest Zone: 4,095–4,100
• Targets:
• 4,120
• 4,145
• 4,180
• Stop Loss: Below 4,083
⸻
💥 Breakout SELL Setup
• Trigger: Break & close below 4,007
• Retest Zone: 4,007–4,011
• Targets:
• 3,990
• 3,975
• 3,934
• Stop Loss: Above 4,028
⸻
5️⃣ Fundamental Watch
• Asia expected to maintain low volatility early.
• Market reacting to last session’s major liquidity sweep.
• DXY strength still acting as weight on gold.
• US session today brings housing data + Fed commentary, potential volatility catalyst.
• Risk of sharp whipsaws in low liquidity zones.
⸻
6️⃣ Key Technical Levels
🔺 Resistance
• 4,066
• 4,083
• 4,100
• 4,120
🔻 Support
• 4,028
• 4,011
• 4,007
• 3,990
Key Zones
• Golden Zone: 4,050 – 4,076
• Break Buy Trigger: > 4,100
• Break Sell Trigger: < 4,007
⸻
7️⃣ Analyst Summary
Gold continues to trade inside a bearish corrective channel. The bounce from 4,007 is weak and purely corrective unless buyers break the critical 4,100 level.
The primary expectation is a push into the 4,050–4,076 Golden Zone, followed by a sell continuation toward 4,028 → 4,011 → 3,990.
Only sustained price action above 4,100 would reverse the short-term bearish bias.
⸻
8️⃣ Final Bias Summary
📉 Primary Bias:
Bearish below 4,100 → Targeting 4,028 → 4,011 → 3,990
📈 Alternative Bias:
Bullish only above 4,100 → Targeting 4,145 → 4,180
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Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | November 17-18✅ From the 4-hour chart, after gold topped at 4245, the price continued to break downward and is still trading below all short-term moving averages (MA5 / MA10 / MA20). This indicates that the larger-cycle bearish trend remains intact.
MA5 < MA10 < MA20 — the bearish alignment is clear, and every rebound has been suppressed near MA10 (4110).
💹 Bollinger Bands:
The lower band continues to extend downward, the middle band (around 4146) is sloping lower, and the lower band has moved down to 4035.
Gold is currently oscillating weakly near the lower band, suggesting that the market is still releasing downside momentum and the lower support has not stabilized.
✅ From the 1-hour chart, gold has been unable to hold above MA20 (around 4084).
MA5 and MA10 are pressing downward, while MA20 and MA60 act as strong resistance. Each rebound candle shows an upper wick, indicating heavy selling pressure.
The 1-hour timeframe is a weak consolidation and there is no valid sign of bottoming or reversal.
💹 Bollinger Bands:
The bands are narrowing at the lows, with the middle band (around 4084) moving sideways.
The market is consolidating at low levels and may choose a direction soon — with a higher probability of continuing downward in line with the main trend.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 4110–4120 / 4140–4150
🟢 Support Levels: 4060–4050 / 4032–4035
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold rebounds to 4110–4120 and meets resistance, consider light short positions. The target can be set at 4050–4030. If the decline continues, further targets are 4000 and 3930–3887.
🔰 If gold rebounds to 4140–4150 and faces rejection, high-position shorts can be taken, targeting 4100–4080.
🔰 If gold pulls back to 4035–4040 and stabilizes, consider low-position longs, targeting 4060–4080.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
XAU/USD Weekly Plan – Rebound or Breakdown? Key Levels AheadGold experienced a sharp pullback from last week’s 4234 resistance, dropping aggressively on Friday into the 4027 support level before finding temporary support around the 200MA.
Buyers now face early resistance between 4115–4170. A clean break above 4170 would signal that bulls are regaining control, opening the way for a move toward 4232 → 4285.
If price fails to reclaim 4115, we may see another leg lower. A breakdown below 4053 would expose the support zone , with deeper downside risk toward the HTF Support Zone if bearish pressure strengthens.
📌Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4115
4170
4232
4285
Support:
4078
4053
4027
3996
3968
3921
🔎Fundamental focus:
As the U.S. government reopens for business, all attention will now turn toward when critical data on employment, inflation, and other key economic indicators will be released.
XAUUSD - Weak Reiection at Premium Zone, Looking for Deeper Liqu"Gold is showing a weak reaction from the premium zone on the 30m chart. Price is failing to hold above the value area and is sliding back toward the lower liquidity pocket. My main scenario is a retracement toward the liquidity pool below 4,020, where a deeper sweep could occur before any meaningful reversal. Watching for displacement confirmation around that zone."
XAUUSD: Trend in 30-Min timeframeThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
You should be noted, that we have two trend (green & purple)
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, accurate channel and you must know that SETUP is very very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
Gold Weekly Summary and Forecast 11/15/2025In my last week's weekly post, I did predict gold to rise sharply and touch 4248.
Well, it almost hit and quickly retrace and found its support around 4050.
It did close the week with a positive note. I am still bullish on gold for the next week. It will be interesting to see what is the price action on next Monday. In regard of the heavy drop on Friday, I am cautious for the bull's continuation. Therefore, I will watch closely on Monday. If 4050 level is held, we could see more pumps and gold could test another ATH. My target will be 4440. However, If daily closes below 4000, we could see more drops coming.
Let's see what the market will give us.






















