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Another Golden Opportunity!Gold's corrective move the past few weeks has now led to a bounce, expect some more gains in a likely ABC bounce to be followed by further correction towards $3800ish. This wave 5 might only be wave 1 finished at $4380, a wave 2 corrective decline to be followed by a stronger wave 3...of course anything can happen, new highs in the next week or so will be very welcome. Let's see the pattern play out before we are clearer on the outcome, expect this bounce to peter out towards $4190ish, if a resumption of the correction develops, another golden opportunity presents itself around $3800. Whatever happens, this wave 5 will see $5000 plus and possibly $6000...remember $3000? Appreciate a thumbs up, good trading and God Bless you all!
TVC:GOLDLong
by Fractal777
1
Gold's decline intensifies, approaching key support; a battle beGold's decline intensifies, approaching key support; a battle between bulls and bears amid internal Fed disagreements! 🦅 Market Recap: On Friday (November 21), spot gold continued its decline in European trading, currently trading around $4048 per ounce, a drop of nearly $30 on the day! Gold prices remain under pressure below $4100, mainly due to rising market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance, suppressing the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset. Although yesterday's non-farm payroll data appeared better than expected, details revealed a weak labor market, only briefly boosting gold prices. Subsequently, US stocks surged and then retreated, and Asian stock markets plummeted, dragging gold down as well. The market is currently debating whether gold will recover its valuation along with equity assets, or whether it will regain its upward momentum as a "mistakenly sold-off" safe-haven asset. The answer still requires guidance from both technical and data analysis. 📉📈 Fundamental Focus: 1️⃣ Fed Policy Divergence Emerges: The minutes of the October FOMC meeting showed significant disagreement among members regarding whether to cut interest rates in December. Two committee members even voted against the rate cut: one advocated a 50 basis point cut, while the other advocated holding rates steady. All members reiterated their commitment to achieving the dual mandate of "full employment + 2% inflation," but expressed concern that consecutive rate cuts could push up long-term inflation expectations, negating previous anti-inflation gains. Powell had previously emphasized that a December rate cut was "not a done deal," and the policy path remained uncertain. 2️⃣ Market Sentiment and Opportunity Cost The fluctuating expectations of a rate cut directly increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, putting downward pressure on gold prices. While increased volatility in global stock markets should theoretically boost safe-haven demand, gold is currently more driven by real interest rates and the US dollar, leading to increased short-term correlation with risk assets. Technical Analysis 🔍 Trend Judgment: Bears Prevail, Consolidation Awaits Breakout Gold prices began a correction from $4381, rebounding to around $4130 this week before encountering resistance again, confirming that the rebound is not a reversal. Currently fluctuating between $4000 and $4100, but the structure is bearish. A break below $4000 would likely lead to further declines towards the $3980-$3950 and even $3915 support levels. Key resistance lies in the $4100-$4110 area. Only a strong breakout above this range can alleviate downward pressure and test the upper edge of the triangle consolidation pattern. 🎯 Trading Strategy: Sell on rallies, be cautious about attempting to catch a rebound. Short Positions: Sell in batches at $4070-$4075, stop loss at $8, target $4040-$4020, break below to $4000. Long Positions: Consider a small long position at $4000-$4005, stop loss at $8, target $4030-$4050. (Note: Specific entry points may vary depending on real-time market fluctuations. Discussions and updates are welcome!)
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Gold-segmentation
BUY!BUY!BUY!Macroeconomic Policies: Rate Cut Expectations Reignite, Policy Bottom Emerges 1. Weak Employment Data Consolidates Easing Foundation The U.S. added 119,000 nonfarm payrolls in September (vs. expected 50,000), slightly exceeding market forecasts. However, cumulative downward revisions to the previous two months’ data reached 33,000 (July revised down from 79,000 to 72,000; August revised down from 22,000 to -400), indicating a clear cooling trend in the labor market. More critically, the October nonfarm payrolls report could not be released due to the government shutdown. The Federal Reserve will only have access to this "below-trend" employment report ahead of its December FOMC meeting, significantly reducing the probability of a hawkish rate hike. The likelihood of a December rate cut has rebounded from 44% at the start of the month to 50%. Historical data shows that after consecutive downward revisions to employment data, the probability of Fed easing within three months reaches 68%, providing core policy support for gold. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. Fed Policy Pivot Is Inevitable The Fed implemented a 25BP rate cut at its October FOMC meeting and announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1st. Despite Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric, divisions among committee members have widened (2 votes in favor of a larger rate cut, 1 vote against the cut), signaling the start of an easing cycle. The meeting minutes explicitly mentioned "rising downside risks to employment," with the policy focus shifting from "fighting inflation" to "supporting growth." The downward channel for real interest rates has opened, benefiting gold—a non-interest-bearing asset. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. Pressure from the U.S. Dollar Index Weakens The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fluctuated between 99.5 and 100, failing to achieve an effective breakout. Technically, it exhibits a "bearish divergence" pattern (price making new highs while MACD fails to do so). As weak U.S. economic data signals spread, the DXY faces increased short-term downward pressure. A break below the 99 level will further unlock upside space for gold. Gold trading strategy buy：4055-4065 tp:4080-4100-4130 sl:4040
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Thorne-
Monthly Gold "The end"🟡 Comprehensive Analysis of Gold (XAUUSD) In this analysis, we can clearly see that gold is still moving within a strong bullish channel. The price is respecting the structure formed by the upper resistance line and the two support lines (0 and 0.5) below. 🔵 The previous all-time high was around 1,952, and as shown on the chart, the price has broken above that level and continued into a powerful rally, reaching a new all-time high around 4,502. ✨ After this strong upward movement, the price touched the upper boundary of the channel — a zone that typically acts as a point of rejection. The chart illustrates a potential scenario where the price may start a pullback, enter a consolidation phase, and then drop to retest one of the support lines. ✔️ In other words: Gold is currently in a sensitive area. The new all-time high may trigger a correction before the market decides its next major move. However, the overall long-term trend remains bearish. 📉 The oscillator at the bottom shows strong overbought conditions, which increases the probability of a short-term downward correction. 🔔 Summary Overall trend: bearish Current position: At major resistance Most likely scenario: long-term correction toward support (at 3510) Best opportunities: May appear at lower levels after the market cools down The Entries: Downtrend: Until correction could be around (4000-3510) If the price close under 4000 that mean we are going to 3510, if the price close above the 4000 that mean we are going to rise maybe more than ATH could be 4800 or 5000. Have a nice trade fellas.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MyColdNess
Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | November 20-21✅ From the 4-hour chart, gold remains in a weak, downward-biased consolidation structure after yesterday’s failed rally. 1️⃣ Moving averages show a bearish setup MA5 and MA10 have formed a bearish crossover and continue to slope downward, indicating that short-term bearish momentum still dominates. MA20 (around 4082–4088) acts as strong resistance; price has repeatedly failed to break above it, showing weak rebound strength. 2️⃣ Bollinger Bands indicate weakness The Bollinger middle band (around 4069) continues to suppress the price; the latest candles remain below it — a classic weak consolidation pattern. The lower band (around 4014) remains the next downward target. 3️⃣ Rebound attempts fail Multiple attempts to break above 4088–4090 failed, creating a short-term top structure. The recent rebound also failed to break above the moving averages, showing continued lack of bullish momentum. ➡️ H4 Conclusion: The structure remains bearish. As long as price stays below 4090, the market bias remains to the downside. ✅The 1-hour chart confirms the same bearish structure: 1️⃣ Clear downward channel After topping at 4132, gold dropped sharply to 4038, then rebounded to 4068–4070 and faced renewed selling pressure. MA5 / MA10 / MA20 / MA60 are again aligned in a bearish formation. 2️⃣ Rebound momentum is weak The latest rebound only reached MA10–MA20 before turning down again, showing strong selling pressure. Key resistance remains at 4070–4085; breaking above this area is unlikely. 3️⃣ Key support at 4044–4038 This zone has shown short-term buying interest but lacks strength. A break below this region will open the path toward 4015–4008. ➡️ H1 Conclusion: Weak short-term structure with limited rebound strength. More downside tests toward 4044–4038 remain likely. 🔴 Resistance Levels 4070–4085 4100–4110 4132 🟢 Support Levels 4044–4038 4015–4008 3997 ✅ Trading Strategy Suggestions 🔰 Strategy 1: Sell the Rebound (Main Plan) If gold rebounds to 4070–4085 and faces rejection: ➡️ Enter light short positions SL: 4090 Targets: 4055 / 4044 / 4035 👉 This is the highest-probability strategy under current conditions. 🔰 Strategy 2: Strong Resistance Short (Aggressive) If gold reaches 4100–4110: ➡️ Use medium position shorts SL: 4120 Targets: 4065 / 4045 👉 Strong resistance zone; breakout probability is low. 🔰 Strategy 3: Breakout Short Below Support If gold breaks 4044–4038: ➡️ Follow the trend with breakout shorts Targets: 4015 / 4000 👉 Loss of this zone will open further downside. 📌 Summary Both H4 and H1 remain in a weak bearish structure. Rebounds lack momentum and are consistently pressured by moving averages. 4044–4038 is the key support; if broken, the downtrend will accelerate. Recommended approach today: Sell rebounds as the primary strategy Buy dips only at strong support levels (around 4038)
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldTrading_JACK
XAUUSD – HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN FORMING ON H4💛 XAUUSD – HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN FORMING ON H4 🎯 🌤 Overview Hello everyone, it's Lana here again 💬 Gold, after a strong decline, is forming a clear Head and Shoulders structure on the H4 timeframe, following a long-term upward trendline. This pattern allows us to expect a rebound to the old peak area, but before that, the price may "dip" down to complete the structure. 💹 Technical Analysis (ICT Perspective) The Left Shoulder – Head – Right Shoulder is gradually completing around the trendline + supporting FVG. The area around the 50% Fibonacci above is a reasonable zone for the price to form the right shoulder, and if it breaks above the neckline, it could pave the way back to the strong liquidity area above 4200. In the short term, the 4118–4120 area is both resistance + the neckline of the pattern, suitable for a technical Sell. The 4040–4042 area coinciding with the trendline + OB is a nice support to watch for a Buy if the price adjusts deeply. 🎯 Reference Trading Plan 💢 SELL Scenario (scalping at resistance) Sell 4118–4120 │ SL: 4125 TP: 4105 → 4086 → 4060 → 4040 💖 BUY Scenario (priority according to the pattern) Buy 4042–4040 │ SL: 4034 TP: 4075 → 4090 → 4100 → 4140 → 4200 ⚠️ Important Notes Trading according to the pattern is just an expectation trade, so it should be combined with candle signals on smaller timeframes (M15–M30) before entering a trade. The upcoming FOMC meeting and NFP report, after a prolonged US government shutdown, could lead to very unpredictable volatility. Reduce volume, avoid holding large positions through major news events. 🌷 Conclusion with LanaM2 The Head and Shoulders pattern on H4 is opening up beautiful opportunities for both short Sell and Buy according to the larger trend 💛 Be patient and wait for the price to reach the marked areas, be disciplined with SL, and don't FOMO before the news. If you find this useful, please 💛 Like – 💬 Comment – 🔔 Follow LanaM2 to update the gold perspective with me every day ✨
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
Gold's Bottom Line Today: $4000Gold's Bottom Line Today: $4000 As I predicted yesterday, gold prices have bottomed out and are currently trading in the $3990-$4000 range. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of oversold conditions. A break below $4000 could see gold prices continue to fall sharply to $3800-$3900. Today, we will focus on the performance of US and Asian stocks. As shown in the chart (1-hour chart): Key Resistance: $4050-$4065 Key Support: $4000 1: If the price breaks through and stabilizes above $4050, a long position can be considered. 2: Consider establishing a small short position at the resistance level. Sell: 4040-4050 Stop Loss: 4065 Take Profit 1: 4000 Take Profit 2: 3950 3: Buy on dips at support levels If the price stabilizes around $4000, the following strategy can be used: Buy: 4010-4015 Stop Loss: 3995 Take Profit: 4040-4065-4100
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Timo_Weber8
XAU/USD Intraday Plan – Watching Reaction at Support ZoneAfter a brief consolidation yesterday, gold dropped into the Support Zone and is currently trading around 4014. Market structure remains bearish, with price sitting below both the MA50 and MA200. The series of rejection wicks shows buyers are trying to push back, but momentum is still with the sellers for now. The first resistance is at 4027. For buyers to gain traction, we need a clean break above 4027, followed by a break above 4053 — only then could we see an attempt toward 4078. If price fails to hold the Support Zone and breaks below 3,996, the next downside target becomes the HTF Support Zone — a major area where buyers have reacted strongly in the past. 📌Key levels to watch: Resistance: 4027 4053 4078 Support: 3996 3968 3921
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
XAUUSD – TWO MAIN SCENARIOS FOR THE DAY: MONITOR REACTIONS ...💛 XAUUSD – TWO MAIN SCENARIOS FOR THE DAY: MONITOR REACTIONS AT THE TRENDLINE 🎯 🌤 1. Overview Hello everyone 💬 Gold is currently waiting at the H4 trendline, indicating the market lacks the volume to decide the next direction. Although the price is adjusting after the drop from the 4,400 USD region, the larger trend is still supported by strong buying flows from central banks. 💹 Market Context According to Goldman Sachs, the current decline is only temporary, as the demand for gold as a safe haven asset continues to rise: U.S. bond yields are decreasing USD is weakening The U.S. economy is under pressure from unemployment and inflation In September alone, central banks purchased 64 tons of gold, and forecasts suggest that November may continue the strong accumulation trend. 💹 Technical Analysis 📉 If Gold breaks below the trendline → the market will trigger strong selling pressure, pulling back to the 395x region, where there is low liquidity and significant support. 📈 Conversely, if the price holds the trendline and volume pushes up, a short-term upward structure will form. 📌 The 4068 level is a key point — if the price retests this area and falls back, Buy is only activated when it returns to 4034. 🎯 Reference Trading Scenarios 🔻 SELL – When breaking the trendline (priority if volume is strong) Sell 4036–4038 │ SL: 4044 TP: 4010 → 3995 → 3970 → 3945 🔹 BUY – Strong support 395x Buy 3952–3954 │ SL: 3957 TP: 3975 → 3995 → 4030 🔸 BUY to maintain trend (if price rebounds at 4068) Buy at 4034 after confirmation signal ⚠️ Important Note Volume is low, the market can easily sweep stops, so enter trades with small volume. The larger trend is still supported by central bank flows, but in the short term, Gold can fluctuate strongly around the trendline. Prioritize trading based on price reactions at key areas rather than predicting the direction in advance. 🌷Gold is in a sensitive phase at the H4 trendline 💛 If you find this useful, please 💛 Like – 💬 Comment – 🔔 Follow LanaM2 to receive daily gold analysis ✨
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO DROP?1. Market Context Yesterday, gold was almost in accumulation throughout the Asian–European session and only broke out strongly in the latter half of the US session. After breaking out of the accumulation zone, the price dropped sharply to around 4006 – a key level – and rebounded strongly from there. However, statements from FED members remain hawkish, affirming the stance of keeping interest rates high for longer and not considering rate cuts. This creates - Downward pressure on gold - Capital flow leaning towards USD ------>>Market sentiment favors SELL on price recovery ➡️ Conclusion: Today, the main scenario remains SELL in line with the trend, BUY is only a secondary strategy & short scalp when reaching strong support. 🎯2. Today's Trading Scenario (SL: 10 points TP 10 points. RR ratio:1-2/1:3/1:5) 🔻 Main SELL (priority) SELL Zone: 4050 – 4055 4075 – 4080 4105 – 4110 🟦 Secondary BUY BUY Zone: 3996 – 3994 3965 – 3960 3935 – 3930 3895 – 3890
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Chum_trades
XAUUSD Daily AnalysisGold is still moving within a corrective structure after the recent bullish impulse. Price is currently holding above the daily trendline, but there is still room for deeper retracement before any major continuation move. 🟢 Buy Zone My main focus is the higher-probability buy zone at 3,870 – 3,930, which lines up with: 61–71% fib pocket Strong HTF demand Trendline support If price reaches this area, I’ll be watching for a tap → small pullback → continuation setup. This is a clean long setup. 🎯 Bias Still bullish overall, but waiting for price to reach one of my two marked zones before committing to any trades. Sell Zone = short-term reaction play Buy Zone = high-probability swing entry
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by ZadyTrades
Gold High Probability Selling SetupGold is reacting from a major supply zone, showing clear signs of seller strength. The recent upward push appears corrective, with liquidity taken above previous highs and immediate rejection from the marked zone. Market structure is now shifting bearish, indicating potential for a deeper move down if momentum continues. A clean break in intraday structure or a strong bearish confirmation candle will strengthen the short bias. This setup favors selling from the highlighted zone with proper risk management. 📍 Zone: High-probability supply area 📍 Structure: Bearish shift developing 🎯 Bias: Downside continuation ⚠️ Wait for confirmation before executing the trade
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Itsalikhaan