Gold still in it's year-end range, good scalping opportunitiesThis year's high is in, the same forecast as last year if you watched with me this time last December.
We can expect that the new year candle will target the previous high quickly and swiftly as always, but until then we scalp this year-end wick range using LTF OB/FVGs for minimal pip TPs
Trade ideas
Gold’s Survival Zone: 4010–3998 Decides EverythingKey Levels for Today
Gold is trading at a decisive zone this morning:
4000–4004 → A clean break below this range opens the door toward 3945–3930.
Holding above 4000 → Keeps the bullish recovery scenario alive.
Break above 4055 → Signals strength returning, with upside targets at 4070 – 4085 – 4096 – 4111. Any sustained move above these levels indicates a potential continuation to higher zones.
Technical Overview
1H–3H timeframe:
Price is trading below all major moving averages (10/20/50/100/200) — a clear short-term bearish signal.
4H timeframe:
Gold is still receiving solid support near 4010.
Critical Zone (4010–3998):
This is a life-or-death area for gold today. Expect heavy “battle” here.
Failure to defend this zone will likely drive price directly toward 3945–3930.
Trade Levels & Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Long):
Entry: Above 4026 (risk from 4017)
Targets:
4036–4039 → 4045 → 4055 → 4068 → 4079–4083 → 4090 → 4097 → 4107 → 4127 → 4132
Bearish Scenario (Short):
Entry: Below 3998 (risk from 4007)
Targets:
3991 → 3985 → 3977 → 3970 → 3958 → 3943 → 3930 → 3921 → 3901
Final Notes:
If you find this analysis helpful, your comment or share truly makes a difference.
Disclaimer
This analysis reflects a personal technical and fundamental view. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation.Trading financial markets involves significant risk; all decisions are the sole responsibility of the trader.
Wishing everyone a profitable day and a successful trading week.
#GoldRider
ElDoradoFx – GOLD ANALYSIS (18/11/2025, ASIA SESSION)If you want:
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1️⃣ Market Overview
Gold enters the Asia session trading around $4,045, recovering slightly after sweeping liquidity at the $4,007–$4,011 weak low. Despite the rebound, the broader structure remains bearish, with price still below the major H1/H4 supply zone (4,066–4,100) and under a strong descending trendline.
Asia begins with corrective upside, but the dominant bias remains bearish unless a full structural break above $4,100 occurs.
⸻
2️⃣ Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1)
• Price is retesting the $4,028–$3,934 demand zone.
• Rejection at the descending trendline from the major swing high confirms ongoing bearish momentum.
• RSI (~51) is neutral.
• A daily close below $4,028 exposes $3,934 → $3,886.
• Holding above $4,028 keeps price inside corrective structure.
⸻
🔹 1H Chart
• Overall structure is bearish-to-neutral.
• Price remains below the 200 EMA, 50 EMA, and trendline confluence zone at $4,066–$4,100.
• Prior BOS from $4,120 confirms bearish control.
• RSI (~45) shows weak bullish momentum on the pullback.
⸻
🔹 15M–5M
• After sweeping $4,007, price made a CHoCH upward but stalled immediately at descending structure.
• Momentum is decreasing near intraday resistance.
• MACD shows weakening histogram on the pullback.
• Short-term uptrend still corrective inside a bearish macro move.
⸻
3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis
Last swing: 4,120 → 4,007
• 38.2% → 4,050
• 50.0% → 4,063
• 61.8% → 4,076
🎯 Fibonacci Golden Zone: 4,050 – 4,076
→ Confluence with supply + descending trendline = Strong SELL Region
⸻
4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios
📉 SELL SCENARIO (Main Bias)
• Sell Zone: 4,066 – 4,100
• Targets:
• 4,028
• 4,011
• 3,990
• Stop Loss: Above 4,115
• Confirmation:
• 5M/15M bearish rejection
• RSI divergence
• BOS from inside the zone
⸻
📈 BUY SCENARIO (Countertrend Only)
• Buy Zone: 4,011 – 4,007 (liquidity sweep region)
• Targets:
• 4,028
• 4,050
• 4,066
• Stop Loss: Below 3,998
• Confirmation:
• Clear CHoCH
• High-volume reversal candle
⸻
💥 Breakout BUY Setup
• Trigger: Break & close above 4,100
• Retest Zone: 4,095–4,100
• Targets:
• 4,120
• 4,145
• 4,180
• Stop Loss: Below 4,083
⸻
💥 Breakout SELL Setup
• Trigger: Break & close below 4,007
• Retest Zone: 4,007–4,011
• Targets:
• 3,990
• 3,975
• 3,934
• Stop Loss: Above 4,028
⸻
5️⃣ Fundamental Watch
• Asia expected to maintain low volatility early.
• Market reacting to last session’s major liquidity sweep.
• DXY strength still acting as weight on gold.
• US session today brings housing data + Fed commentary, potential volatility catalyst.
• Risk of sharp whipsaws in low liquidity zones.
⸻
6️⃣ Key Technical Levels
🔺 Resistance
• 4,066
• 4,083
• 4,100
• 4,120
🔻 Support
• 4,028
• 4,011
• 4,007
• 3,990
Key Zones
• Golden Zone: 4,050 – 4,076
• Break Buy Trigger: > 4,100
• Break Sell Trigger: < 4,007
⸻
7️⃣ Analyst Summary
Gold continues to trade inside a bearish corrective channel. The bounce from 4,007 is weak and purely corrective unless buyers break the critical 4,100 level.
The primary expectation is a push into the 4,050–4,076 Golden Zone, followed by a sell continuation toward 4,028 → 4,011 → 3,990.
Only sustained price action above 4,100 would reverse the short-term bearish bias.
⸻
8️⃣ Final Bias Summary
📉 Primary Bias:
Bearish below 4,100 → Targeting 4,028 → 4,011 → 3,990
📈 Alternative Bias:
Bullish only above 4,100 → Targeting 4,145 → 4,180
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Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | November 17-18✅ From the 4-hour chart, after gold topped at 4245, the price continued to break downward and is still trading below all short-term moving averages (MA5 / MA10 / MA20). This indicates that the larger-cycle bearish trend remains intact.
MA5 < MA10 < MA20 — the bearish alignment is clear, and every rebound has been suppressed near MA10 (4110).
💹 Bollinger Bands:
The lower band continues to extend downward, the middle band (around 4146) is sloping lower, and the lower band has moved down to 4035.
Gold is currently oscillating weakly near the lower band, suggesting that the market is still releasing downside momentum and the lower support has not stabilized.
✅ From the 1-hour chart, gold has been unable to hold above MA20 (around 4084).
MA5 and MA10 are pressing downward, while MA20 and MA60 act as strong resistance. Each rebound candle shows an upper wick, indicating heavy selling pressure.
The 1-hour timeframe is a weak consolidation and there is no valid sign of bottoming or reversal.
💹 Bollinger Bands:
The bands are narrowing at the lows, with the middle band (around 4084) moving sideways.
The market is consolidating at low levels and may choose a direction soon — with a higher probability of continuing downward in line with the main trend.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 4110–4120 / 4140–4150
🟢 Support Levels: 4060–4050 / 4032–4035
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold rebounds to 4110–4120 and meets resistance, consider light short positions. The target can be set at 4050–4030. If the decline continues, further targets are 4000 and 3930–3887.
🔰 If gold rebounds to 4140–4150 and faces rejection, high-position shorts can be taken, targeting 4100–4080.
🔰 If gold pulls back to 4035–4040 and stabilizes, consider low-position longs, targeting 4060–4080.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
XAUUSD | Consolidation and Anticipation of Fed Data📈 Gold Market Analysis: Consolidation and Anticipation of Fed Data
The gold market (XAU/USD) experienced a relatively flat and sideways trading session on Monday, consolidating between the key levels of $4103 and $4055. This movement occurred after the precious metal experienced a sharp 2% decline in the previous trading session, reflecting investor caution.
Investors are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach, awaiting the release of important economic data from the United States. This data is crucial because it will provide new clues regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy path. Expectations regarding monetary tightening or, conversely, a rate cut will significantly impact US bond yields and the value of the US dollar, which in turn will determine the direction of gold prices.
📌 Technical Outlook and Key Levels
Gold is currently consolidating firmly within a key pivot range.
Bearish Update:
The primary bearish focus lies at the $4055 support level.
A clear breakout and close of the 1-hour candle (1H close) below this support is expected to trigger a further wave of bearish momentum.
The next downside target is the minor support level of $4013, followed by the more significant support at $3979.
Sustaining the price below $4055 will maintain a downside bias.
Bullish Update:
To reverse momentum, gold needs to break through the key resistance level at $4103.
A convincing breakout, confirmed by a 4-hour candle (4H close) closing above $4103, would signal a shift in momentum to the bullish side and a price recovery.
This would pave the way towards the next resistance target located at $4148.
XAU/USD Weekly Plan – Rebound or Breakdown? Key Levels AheadGold experienced a sharp pullback from last week’s 4234 resistance, dropping aggressively on Friday into the 4027 support level before finding temporary support around the 200MA.
Buyers now face early resistance between 4115–4170. A clean break above 4170 would signal that bulls are regaining control, opening the way for a move toward 4232 → 4285.
If price fails to reclaim 4115, we may see another leg lower. A breakdown below 4053 would expose the support zone , with deeper downside risk toward the HTF Support Zone if bearish pressure strengthens.
📌Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4115
4170
4232
4285
Support:
4078
4053
4027
3996
3968
3921
🔎Fundamental focus:
As the U.S. government reopens for business, all attention will now turn toward when critical data on employment, inflation, and other key economic indicators will be released.
XAUUSD - Weak Reiection at Premium Zone, Looking for Deeper Liqu"Gold is showing a weak reaction from the premium zone on the 30m chart. Price is failing to hold above the value area and is sliding back toward the lower liquidity pocket. My main scenario is a retracement toward the liquidity pool below 4,020, where a deeper sweep could occur before any meaningful reversal. Watching for displacement confirmation around that zone."
XAUUSDbased on tecnical only the breakout and creating new low or high will have the new confirmation what gold really up to? considering as an this week gold had played side ways and din break the inside resistent and support. lets see how gold close as weekly candle.
clear draw on the chart so take a good look and understand.
what you think leave a your comment below.
Another Golden Opportunity!Gold's corrective move the past few weeks has now led to a bounce, expect some more gains in a likely ABC bounce to be followed by further correction towards $3800ish.
This wave 5 might only be wave 1 finished at $4380, a wave 2 corrective decline to be followed by a stronger wave 3...of course anything can happen, new highs in the next week or so will be very welcome.
Let's see the pattern play out before we are clearer on the outcome, expect this bounce to peter out towards $4190ish, if a resumption of the correction develops, another golden opportunity presents itself around $3800.
Whatever happens, this wave 5 will see $5000 plus and possibly $6000...remember $3000?
Appreciate a thumbs up, good trading and God Bless you all!
Gold XAUUSD updateScroll down to see entry.
I post all my entries here so follow if you want to get free 80-90% accurate ideas.
Take trades at your own risk, go through my entry history on my posts.
Back to gold.
Even though it has not made significant movement it is however for me confirming that I can continue to hold to potential TP. This the biggest amount I've ever traded and at to hit it will solidify me as an official 5 figure trader!
Will keep you posted.
Gold's decline intensifies, approaching key support; a battle beGold's decline intensifies, approaching key support; a battle between bulls and bears amid internal Fed disagreements! 🦅
Market Recap: On Friday (November 21), spot gold continued its decline in European trading, currently trading around $4048 per ounce, a drop of nearly $30 on the day! Gold prices remain under pressure below $4100, mainly due to rising market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance, suppressing the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset. Although yesterday's non-farm payroll data appeared better than expected, details revealed a weak labor market, only briefly boosting gold prices. Subsequently, US stocks surged and then retreated, and Asian stock markets plummeted, dragging gold down as well. The market is currently debating whether gold will recover its valuation along with equity assets, or whether it will regain its upward momentum as a "mistakenly sold-off" safe-haven asset. The answer still requires guidance from both technical and data analysis. 📉📈
Fundamental Focus:
1️⃣ Fed Policy Divergence Emerges:
The minutes of the October FOMC meeting showed significant disagreement among members regarding whether to cut interest rates in December. Two committee members even voted against the rate cut: one advocated a 50 basis point cut, while the other advocated holding rates steady. All members reiterated their commitment to achieving the dual mandate of "full employment + 2% inflation," but expressed concern that consecutive rate cuts could push up long-term inflation expectations, negating previous anti-inflation gains. Powell had previously emphasized that a December rate cut was "not a done deal," and the policy path remained uncertain.
2️⃣ Market Sentiment and Opportunity Cost
The fluctuating expectations of a rate cut directly increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, putting downward pressure on gold prices. While increased volatility in global stock markets should theoretically boost safe-haven demand, gold is currently more driven by real interest rates and the US dollar, leading to increased short-term correlation with risk assets.
Technical Analysis
🔍 Trend Judgment: Bears Prevail, Consolidation Awaits Breakout
Gold prices began a correction from $4381, rebounding to around $4130 this week before encountering resistance again, confirming that the rebound is not a reversal.
Currently fluctuating between $4000 and $4100, but the structure is bearish. A break below $4000 would likely lead to further declines towards the $3980-$3950 and even $3915 support levels.
Key resistance lies in the $4100-$4110 area. Only a strong breakout above this range can alleviate downward pressure and test the upper edge of the triangle consolidation pattern.
🎯 Trading Strategy: Sell on rallies, be cautious about attempting to catch a rebound.
Short Positions: Sell in batches at $4070-$4075, stop loss at $8, target $4040-$4020, break below to $4000.
Long Positions: Consider a small long position at $4000-$4005, stop loss at $8, target $4030-$4050.
(Note: Specific entry points may vary depending on real-time market fluctuations. Discussions and updates are welcome!)
XAUUSD Possible Sell Setup“Price has reacted from the higher-timeframe supply and respected the descending trendline. Current structure shows confirmed bearish order-flow with BOS/ChoCH sequences. The pullback is now testing fresh supply. Below the 4080 zone, bias remains bearish, with downside targets at 4040 and 4020 demand levels.”
XAUUSD Possible Sell Setup
Entry: 4075–4080
SL: 4092
TP: 4040 / 4020
Bias: Price rejected supply and is respecting the downtrend.
BUY!BUY!BUY!Macroeconomic Policies: Rate Cut Expectations Reignite, Policy Bottom Emerges
1. Weak Employment Data Consolidates Easing Foundation
The U.S. added 119,000 nonfarm payrolls in September (vs. expected 50,000), slightly exceeding market forecasts. However, cumulative downward revisions to the previous two months’ data reached 33,000 (July revised down from 79,000 to 72,000; August revised down from 22,000 to -400), indicating a clear cooling trend in the labor market. More critically, the October nonfarm payrolls report could not be released due to the government shutdown. The Federal Reserve will only have access to this "below-trend" employment report ahead of its December FOMC meeting, significantly reducing the probability of a hawkish rate hike. The likelihood of a December rate cut has rebounded from 44% at the start of the month to 50%. Historical data shows that after consecutive downward revisions to employment data, the probability of Fed easing within three months reaches 68%, providing core policy support for gold.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Fed Policy Pivot Is Inevitable
The Fed implemented a 25BP rate cut at its October FOMC meeting and announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1st. Despite Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric, divisions among committee members have widened (2 votes in favor of a larger rate cut, 1 vote against the cut), signaling the start of an easing cycle. The meeting minutes explicitly mentioned "rising downside risks to employment," with the policy focus shifting from "fighting inflation" to "supporting growth." The downward channel for real interest rates has opened, benefiting gold—a non-interest-bearing asset.
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3. Pressure from the U.S. Dollar Index Weakens
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fluctuated between 99.5 and 100, failing to achieve an effective breakout. Technically, it exhibits a "bearish divergence" pattern (price making new highs while MACD fails to do so). As weak U.S. economic data signals spread, the DXY faces increased short-term downward pressure. A break below the 99 level will further unlock upside space for gold.
Gold trading strategy
buy:4055-4065
tp:4080-4100-4130
sl:4040
XAUSUDPrice Action Trading is a method of financial market analysis where traders make buying and selling decisions solely based on the asset's price movements over time, without relying on technical indicators.
It's essentially the art of reading a "naked" or clean chart to understand the psychology and behavior of market participants.
Monthly Gold "The end"🟡 Comprehensive Analysis of Gold (XAUUSD)
In this analysis, we can clearly see that gold is still moving within a strong bullish channel. The price is respecting the structure formed by the upper resistance line and the two support lines (0 and 0.5) below.
🔵 The previous all-time high was around 1,952, and as shown on the chart, the price has broken above that level and continued into a powerful rally, reaching a new all-time high around 4,502.
✨ After this strong upward movement, the price touched the upper boundary of the channel — a zone that typically acts as a point of rejection. The chart illustrates a potential scenario where the price may start a pullback, enter a consolidation phase, and then drop to retest one of the support lines.
✔️ In other words: Gold is currently in a sensitive area. The new all-time high may trigger a correction before the market decides its next major move. However, the overall long-term trend remains bearish.
📉 The oscillator at the bottom shows strong overbought conditions, which increases the probability of a short-term downward correction.
🔔 Summary
Overall trend: bearish
Current position: At major resistance
Most likely scenario: long-term correction toward support (at 3510)
Best opportunities: May appear at lower levels after the market cools down
The Entries:
Downtrend: Until correction could be around (4000-3510)
If the price close under 4000 that mean we are going to 3510,
if the price close above the 4000 that mean we are going to rise maybe more than ATH could be 4800 or 5000.
Have a nice trade fellas.
Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | November 20-21✅ From the 4-hour chart, gold remains in a weak, downward-biased consolidation structure after yesterday’s failed rally.
1️⃣ Moving averages show a bearish setup
MA5 and MA10 have formed a bearish crossover and continue to slope downward, indicating that short-term bearish momentum still dominates.
MA20 (around 4082–4088) acts as strong resistance; price has repeatedly failed to break above it, showing weak rebound strength.
2️⃣ Bollinger Bands indicate weakness
The Bollinger middle band (around 4069) continues to suppress the price; the latest candles remain below it — a classic weak consolidation pattern.
The lower band (around 4014) remains the next downward target.
3️⃣ Rebound attempts fail
Multiple attempts to break above 4088–4090 failed, creating a short-term top structure.
The recent rebound also failed to break above the moving averages, showing continued lack of bullish momentum.
➡️ H4 Conclusion: The structure remains bearish. As long as price stays below 4090, the market bias remains to the downside.
✅The 1-hour chart confirms the same bearish structure:
1️⃣ Clear downward channel
After topping at 4132, gold dropped sharply to 4038, then rebounded to 4068–4070 and faced renewed selling pressure.
MA5 / MA10 / MA20 / MA60 are again aligned in a bearish formation.
2️⃣ Rebound momentum is weak
The latest rebound only reached MA10–MA20 before turning down again, showing strong selling pressure.
Key resistance remains at 4070–4085; breaking above this area is unlikely.
3️⃣ Key support at 4044–4038
This zone has shown short-term buying interest but lacks strength.
A break below this region will open the path toward 4015–4008.
➡️ H1 Conclusion: Weak short-term structure with limited rebound strength. More downside tests toward 4044–4038 remain likely.
🔴 Resistance Levels
4070–4085
4100–4110
4132
🟢 Support Levels
4044–4038
4015–4008
3997
✅ Trading Strategy Suggestions
🔰 Strategy 1: Sell the Rebound (Main Plan)
If gold rebounds to 4070–4085 and faces rejection:
➡️ Enter light short positions
SL: 4090
Targets: 4055 / 4044 / 4035
👉 This is the highest-probability strategy under current conditions.
🔰 Strategy 2: Strong Resistance Short (Aggressive)
If gold reaches 4100–4110:
➡️ Use medium position shorts
SL: 4120
Targets: 4065 / 4045
👉 Strong resistance zone; breakout probability is low.
🔰 Strategy 3: Breakout Short Below Support
If gold breaks 4044–4038:
➡️ Follow the trend with breakout shorts
Targets: 4015 / 4000
👉 Loss of this zone will open further downside.
📌 Summary
Both H4 and H1 remain in a weak bearish structure.
Rebounds lack momentum and are consistently pressured by moving averages.
4044–4038 is the key support; if broken, the downtrend will accelerate.
Recommended approach today:
Sell rebounds as the primary strategy
Buy dips only at strong support levels (around 4038)






















