BUY!BUY!BUY!Macroeconomic Policies: Rate Cut Expectations Reignite, Policy Bottom Emerges
1. Weak Employment Data Consolidates Easing Foundation
The U.S. added 119,000 nonfarm payrolls in September (vs. expected 50,000), slightly exceeding market forecasts. However, cumulative downward revisions to the previous two months’ data reached 33,000 (July revised down from 79,000 to 72,000; August revised down from 22,000 to -400), indicating a clear cooling trend in the labor market. More critically, the October nonfarm payrolls report could not be released due to the government shutdown. The Federal Reserve will only have access to this "below-trend" employment report ahead of its December FOMC meeting, significantly reducing the probability of a hawkish rate hike. The likelihood of a December rate cut has rebounded from 44% at the start of the month to 50%. Historical data shows that after consecutive downward revisions to employment data, the probability of Fed easing within three months reaches 68%, providing core policy support for gold.
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2. Fed Policy Pivot Is Inevitable
The Fed implemented a 25BP rate cut at its October FOMC meeting and announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1st. Despite Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric, divisions among committee members have widened (2 votes in favor of a larger rate cut, 1 vote against the cut), signaling the start of an easing cycle. The meeting minutes explicitly mentioned "rising downside risks to employment," with the policy focus shifting from "fighting inflation" to "supporting growth." The downward channel for real interest rates has opened, benefiting gold—a non-interest-bearing asset.
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3. Pressure from the U.S. Dollar Index Weakens
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fluctuated between 99.5 and 100, failing to achieve an effective breakout. Technically, it exhibits a "bearish divergence" pattern (price making new highs while MACD fails to do so). As weak U.S. economic data signals spread, the DXY faces increased short-term downward pressure. A break below the 99 level will further unlock upside space for gold.
Gold trading strategy
buy:4055-4065
tp:4080-4100-4130
sl:4040
Trade ideas
Monthly Gold "The end"🟡 Comprehensive Analysis of Gold (XAUUSD)
In this analysis, we can clearly see that gold is still moving within a strong bullish channel. The price is respecting the structure formed by the upper resistance line and the two support lines (0 and 0.5) below.
🔵 The previous all-time high was around 1,952, and as shown on the chart, the price has broken above that level and continued into a powerful rally, reaching a new all-time high around 4,502.
✨ After this strong upward movement, the price touched the upper boundary of the channel — a zone that typically acts as a point of rejection. The chart illustrates a potential scenario where the price may start a pullback, enter a consolidation phase, and then drop to retest one of the support lines.
✔️ In other words: Gold is currently in a sensitive area. The new all-time high may trigger a correction before the market decides its next major move. However, the overall long-term trend remains bearish.
📉 The oscillator at the bottom shows strong overbought conditions, which increases the probability of a short-term downward correction.
🔔 Summary
Overall trend: bearish
Current position: At major resistance
Most likely scenario: long-term correction toward support (at 3510)
Best opportunities: May appear at lower levels after the market cools down
The Entries:
Downtrend: Until correction could be around (4000-3510)
If the price close under 4000 that mean we are going to 3510,
if the price close above the 4000 that mean we are going to rise maybe more than ATH could be 4800 or 5000.
Have a nice trade fellas.
Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | November 20-21✅ From the 4-hour chart, gold remains in a weak, downward-biased consolidation structure after yesterday’s failed rally.
1️⃣ Moving averages show a bearish setup
MA5 and MA10 have formed a bearish crossover and continue to slope downward, indicating that short-term bearish momentum still dominates.
MA20 (around 4082–4088) acts as strong resistance; price has repeatedly failed to break above it, showing weak rebound strength.
2️⃣ Bollinger Bands indicate weakness
The Bollinger middle band (around 4069) continues to suppress the price; the latest candles remain below it — a classic weak consolidation pattern.
The lower band (around 4014) remains the next downward target.
3️⃣ Rebound attempts fail
Multiple attempts to break above 4088–4090 failed, creating a short-term top structure.
The recent rebound also failed to break above the moving averages, showing continued lack of bullish momentum.
➡️ H4 Conclusion: The structure remains bearish. As long as price stays below 4090, the market bias remains to the downside.
✅The 1-hour chart confirms the same bearish structure:
1️⃣ Clear downward channel
After topping at 4132, gold dropped sharply to 4038, then rebounded to 4068–4070 and faced renewed selling pressure.
MA5 / MA10 / MA20 / MA60 are again aligned in a bearish formation.
2️⃣ Rebound momentum is weak
The latest rebound only reached MA10–MA20 before turning down again, showing strong selling pressure.
Key resistance remains at 4070–4085; breaking above this area is unlikely.
3️⃣ Key support at 4044–4038
This zone has shown short-term buying interest but lacks strength.
A break below this region will open the path toward 4015–4008.
➡️ H1 Conclusion: Weak short-term structure with limited rebound strength. More downside tests toward 4044–4038 remain likely.
🔴 Resistance Levels
4070–4085
4100–4110
4132
🟢 Support Levels
4044–4038
4015–4008
3997
✅ Trading Strategy Suggestions
🔰 Strategy 1: Sell the Rebound (Main Plan)
If gold rebounds to 4070–4085 and faces rejection:
➡️ Enter light short positions
SL: 4090
Targets: 4055 / 4044 / 4035
👉 This is the highest-probability strategy under current conditions.
🔰 Strategy 2: Strong Resistance Short (Aggressive)
If gold reaches 4100–4110:
➡️ Use medium position shorts
SL: 4120
Targets: 4065 / 4045
👉 Strong resistance zone; breakout probability is low.
🔰 Strategy 3: Breakout Short Below Support
If gold breaks 4044–4038:
➡️ Follow the trend with breakout shorts
Targets: 4015 / 4000
👉 Loss of this zone will open further downside.
📌 Summary
Both H4 and H1 remain in a weak bearish structure.
Rebounds lack momentum and are consistently pressured by moving averages.
4044–4038 is the key support; if broken, the downtrend will accelerate.
Recommended approach today:
Sell rebounds as the primary strategy
Buy dips only at strong support levels (around 4038)
XAUUSD - Time to buy gold...XAUUSD was recently in a short term downtrend for a few weeks but has now shown some clear bullish movements ahead. XAUUSD (Gold) has broken out of a downward trend channel that was acting as strong resistance, The price is very likely to head to the next strong resistance level which is marked as the take profit zone (green line). Time to buy!
XAUUSD – HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN FORMING ON H4💛 XAUUSD – HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN FORMING ON H4 🎯
🌤 Overview
Hello everyone, it's Lana here again 💬
Gold, after a strong decline, is forming a clear Head and Shoulders structure on the H4 timeframe, following a long-term upward trendline. This pattern allows us to expect a rebound to the old peak area, but before that, the price may "dip" down to complete the structure.
💹 Technical Analysis (ICT Perspective)
The Left Shoulder – Head – Right Shoulder is gradually completing around the trendline + supporting FVG.
The area around the 50% Fibonacci above is a reasonable zone for the price to form the right shoulder, and if it breaks above the neckline, it could pave the way back to the strong liquidity area above 4200.
In the short term, the 4118–4120 area is both resistance + the neckline of the pattern, suitable for a technical Sell.
The 4040–4042 area coinciding with the trendline + OB is a nice support to watch for a Buy if the price adjusts deeply.
🎯 Reference Trading Plan
💢 SELL Scenario (scalping at resistance)
Sell 4118–4120 │ SL: 4125
TP: 4105 → 4086 → 4060 → 4040
💖 BUY Scenario (priority according to the pattern)
Buy 4042–4040 │ SL: 4034
TP: 4075 → 4090 → 4100 → 4140 → 4200
⚠️ Important Notes
Trading according to the pattern is just an expectation trade, so it should be combined with candle signals on smaller timeframes (M15–M30) before entering a trade.
The upcoming FOMC meeting and NFP report, after a prolonged US government shutdown, could lead to very unpredictable volatility.
Reduce volume, avoid holding large positions through major news events.
🌷 Conclusion with LanaM2
The Head and Shoulders pattern on H4 is opening up beautiful opportunities for both short Sell and Buy according to the larger trend 💛
Be patient and wait for the price to reach the marked areas, be disciplined with SL, and don't FOMO before the news.
If you find this useful, please 💛 Like – 💬 Comment – 🔔 Follow LanaM2 to update the gold perspective with me every day ✨
GoldGOLD
- Gold currently bank in range between 4050 & 4100. Not touching price in this range.
- Overall Sells bias remains.
- Waiting for deeper pullbacks to 4115 - 4150's and signs of resistance at supply zone before taking any sell trades.
- Not much in the econ calendar also. Just Fed Miran & Barkin. But we also have Meeting Minutes at 6am which we need to keep an eye out for on any future guidance.
XAUUSD -2H SetupTrade Update – Waiting for Break and Retest
I'm currently waiting for the price to break and retest the resistance at 4110.90. Once the retest holds, I’ll be looking to add to the position, targeting higher resistance levels.
Still waiting for the previously posted setup the break of the major resistance
Gold's Bottom Line Today: $4000Gold's Bottom Line Today: $4000
As I predicted yesterday, gold prices have bottomed out and are currently trading in the $3990-$4000 range.
However, we cannot rule out the possibility of oversold conditions.
A break below $4000 could see gold prices continue to fall sharply to $3800-$3900.
Today, we will focus on the performance of US and Asian stocks.
As shown in the chart (1-hour chart):
Key Resistance: $4050-$4065
Key Support: $4000
1: If the price breaks through and stabilizes above $4050, a long position can be considered.
2: Consider establishing a small short position at the resistance level.
Sell: 4040-4050
Stop Loss: 4065
Take Profit 1: 4000
Take Profit 2: 3950
3: Buy on dips at support levels
If the price stabilizes around $4000, the following strategy can be used:
Buy: 4010-4015
Stop Loss: 3995
Take Profit: 4040-4065-4100
XAU/USD Intraday Plan – Watching Reaction at Support ZoneAfter a brief consolidation yesterday, gold dropped into the Support Zone and is currently trading around 4014. Market structure remains bearish, with price sitting below both the MA50 and MA200. The series of rejection wicks shows buyers are trying to push back, but momentum is still with the sellers for now.
The first resistance is at 4027. For buyers to gain traction, we need a clean break above 4027, followed by a break above 4053 — only then could we see an attempt toward 4078.
If price fails to hold the Support Zone and breaks below 3,996, the next downside target becomes the HTF Support Zone — a major area where buyers have reacted strongly in the past.
📌Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4027
4053
4078
Support:
3996
3968
3921
XAUUSD – TWO MAIN SCENARIOS FOR THE DAY: MONITOR REACTIONS ...💛 XAUUSD – TWO MAIN SCENARIOS FOR THE DAY: MONITOR REACTIONS AT THE TRENDLINE 🎯
🌤 1. Overview
Hello everyone 💬
Gold is currently waiting at the H4 trendline, indicating the market lacks the volume to decide the next direction.
Although the price is adjusting after the drop from the 4,400 USD region, the larger trend is still supported by strong buying flows from central banks.
💹 Market Context
According to Goldman Sachs, the current decline is only temporary, as the demand for gold as a safe haven asset continues to rise:
U.S. bond yields are decreasing
USD is weakening
The U.S. economy is under pressure from unemployment and inflation
In September alone, central banks purchased 64 tons of gold, and forecasts suggest that November may continue the strong accumulation trend.
💹 Technical Analysis
📉 If Gold breaks below the trendline → the market will trigger strong selling pressure, pulling back to the 395x region, where there is low liquidity and significant support.
📈 Conversely, if the price holds the trendline and volume pushes up, a short-term upward structure will form.
📌 The 4068 level is a key point — if the price retests this area and falls back, Buy is only activated when it returns to 4034.
🎯 Reference Trading Scenarios
🔻 SELL – When breaking the trendline (priority if volume is strong)
Sell 4036–4038 │ SL: 4044
TP: 4010 → 3995 → 3970 → 3945
🔹 BUY – Strong support 395x
Buy 3952–3954 │ SL: 3957
TP: 3975 → 3995 → 4030
🔸 BUY to maintain trend (if price rebounds at 4068)
Buy at 4034 after confirmation signal
⚠️ Important Note
Volume is low, the market can easily sweep stops, so enter trades with small volume.
The larger trend is still supported by central bank flows, but in the short term, Gold can fluctuate strongly around the trendline.
Prioritize trading based on price reactions at key areas rather than predicting the direction in advance.
🌷Gold is in a sensitive phase at the H4 trendline 💛
If you find this useful, please 💛 Like – 💬 Comment – 🔔 Follow LanaM2 to receive daily gold analysis ✨
WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO DROP?1. Market Context Yesterday, gold was almost in accumulation throughout the Asian–European session and only broke out strongly in the latter half of the US session.
After breaking out of the accumulation zone, the price dropped sharply to around 4006 – a key level – and rebounded strongly from there.
However, statements from FED members remain hawkish, affirming the stance of keeping interest rates high for longer and not considering rate cuts.
This creates
- Downward pressure on gold
- Capital flow leaning towards USD
------>>Market sentiment favors SELL on price recovery
➡️ Conclusion: Today, the main scenario remains SELL in line with the trend, BUY is only a secondary strategy & short scalp when reaching strong support.
🎯2. Today's Trading Scenario
(SL: 10 points TP 10 points. RR ratio:1-2/1:3/1:5)
🔻 Main SELL (priority)
SELL Zone:
4050 – 4055
4075 – 4080
4105 – 4110
🟦 Secondary BUY
BUY Zone:
3996 – 3994
3965 – 3960
3935 – 3930
3895 – 3890
XAUUSD Daily AnalysisGold is still moving within a corrective structure after the recent bullish impulse. Price is currently holding above the daily trendline, but there is still room for deeper retracement before any major continuation move.
🟢 Buy Zone
My main focus is the higher-probability buy zone at 3,870 – 3,930, which lines up with:
61–71% fib pocket
Strong HTF demand
Trendline support
If price reaches this area, I’ll be watching for a tap → small pullback → continuation setup.
This is a clean long setup.
🎯 Bias
Still bullish overall, but waiting for price to reach one of my two marked zones before committing to any trades.
Sell Zone = short-term reaction play
Buy Zone = high-probability swing entry
Gold High Probability Selling SetupGold is reacting from a major supply zone, showing clear signs of seller strength. The recent upward push appears corrective, with liquidity taken above previous highs and immediate rejection from the marked zone. Market structure is now shifting bearish, indicating potential for a deeper move down if momentum continues.
A clean break in intraday structure or a strong bearish confirmation candle will strengthen the short bias. This setup favors selling from the highlighted zone with proper risk management.
📍 Zone: High-probability supply area
📍 Structure: Bearish shift developing
🎯 Bias: Downside continuation
⚠️ Wait for confirmation before executing the trade
Gold Price AnalysisGold gave up its gains on Friday, rebounding to 4110 after a pullback to 4032. The daily chart closed lower, testing the 10-day moving average and the Bollinger Band's middle line. The RSI indicator pulled back to near the midline. The weekly chart shows a slight overall increase. On the shorter-term 4-hour and 1-hour charts, the moving averages formed a bearish crossover at a high level on Friday, with the price returning to the lower Bollinger Band. The RSI indicator broke below the midline. Technically, gold is maintaining a wide-range consolidation, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is expected to continue.
The 4-hour chart is in a consolidation phase. If it can recover lost ground and regain its position above the moving averages, the bulls may still have hope; otherwise, the downtrend may continue. On Monday, continue to wait for a rebound before selling. A relatively stable and ideal entry point on the daily chart is around 4150. If the market is weak, it may consolidate below 4110-4100. For long positions, a buy opportunity may arise if support is found at the 4040 level; a break below this level would warrant selling.
Key Levels:
First Support: 4070, Second Support: 4053, Third Support: 4033
First Resistance: 4123, Second Resistance: 4138, Third Resistance: 4150
Gold Trading Strategy:
Buy: 4035-4040, SL: 4120, TP: 4060-4080;
Sell: 4140-4145, SL: 4160, TP: 4120-4100;
More Analysis →
Gold is heading to the supportGold had retraced from the local peak having been pushed down by the jittering markets across the board. The next possible support is located at around $4000 area - between 20 and 50 moving averages. Volume has been growing for GC futures, according to the CMEgroup’s statistics, so either bearish and bullish pullbacks might be volatile.
Absence of macro economic drives amid government shutdown creates uncertainty about inflation and other economic metrics in the US, so the asset is expected to trade technically staying within a trading range.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
ElDoradoFx – GOLD ANALYSIS (17/11/2025, ASIA SESSION)
1️⃣ Market Overview
Gold opens the Asia session around $4,105, attempting a recovery after last week’s heavy selloff that drove price into the $4,032–$4,070 macro support zone.
The bounce has pushed price back into a dense resistance cluster—including the descending trendline, 50 EMA, 200 EMA, and supply zone at $4,104–$4,116.
Despite the short-term recovery, the broader structure remains bearish, with the market trading under multiple key swing highs and still respecting all descending structure lines. Asia session is expected to deliver a corrective leg unless buyers break through the first resistance block.
Price is currently coiling before a potential breakout into London.
⸻
2️⃣ Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1)
• Gold holds above the 100 EMA, but remains below broken bullish channel support.
• RSI ~55, reflecting a neutral-to-recovering state.
• The daily BOS remains bearish until price reclaims $4,146–$4,173.
• Daily buyers protecting the $3,930–$3,990 zone, but momentum is still corrective.
⸻
🔹 H1 Chart
• Clear bearish BOS from the $4,245 swing high.
• Price bounced sharply from $4,032 and now retests a very strong resistance cluster:
• Descending trendline
• 50 EMA
• 200 EMA
• Micro supply zone
• RSI ~41 showing weak bullish strength.
• H1 remains bearish unless $4,130–$4,146 breaks.
⸻
🔹 15M–5M Structure
• Multiple CHoCHs after rejecting the $4,070–$4,080 demand zone.
• Momentum indicators turning green, but trendline + MA structure overhead is intact.
• Heavy sell pressure expected around $4,104–$4,116.
⸻
3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis
Last swing: 4,245 → 4,032
• 38.2% = 4,114
• 50.0% = 4,138
• 61.8% = 4,162
🎯 Fibonacci Golden Zone: 4,114 – 4,162
This zone aligns with supply, trendline resistance, and H1 EMA cluster → high-probability sell area.
⸻
4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios
📈 BUY SCENARIO (Countertrend Only)
• Entry Zone: 4,080 – 4,070 (Fresh demand + sweep zone)
• Targets: 4,104 → 4,116 → 4,130
• Stop Loss: Below 4,060
• Confirmation:
✔ Bullish CHoCH on 5M–15M
✔ Engulfing or FVG fill reaction
Only valid if the pullback holds above 4,070.
⸻
📉 SELL SCENARIO (Primary Bias)
• Entry Zone: 4,114 – 4,162 (Golden Zone + Trendline + Supply)
• Targets: 4,090 → 4,070 → 4,050 → 4,032
• Stop Loss: Above 4,172
• Confirmation:
✔ Rejection wicks
✔ RSI divergence
✔ MAs curling downward
This is the highest probability setup for the Asia → London transition.
⸻
💥 Breakout SELL Setup
• Trigger: Break & close below 4,070
• Retest: 4,074 – 4,078
• Targets: 4,050 → 4,032 → 4,010
• Stop Loss: Above 4,090
Continuation of the macro bearish move.
⸻
💥 Breakout BUY Setup
• Trigger: Break & close above 4,130
• Retest: 4,116 – 4,120
• Targets: 4,146 → 4,173 → 4,200
• Stop Loss: Below 4,104
Only valid if strong volume enters the market.
⸻
5️⃣ Fundamental Watch
• Asia session expected quiet until Tokyo liquidity.
• Market positioning ahead of:
• US FOMC speakers
• US Housing Data
• DXY stability near 106 still suppressing strong upside.
• No major Asia-session news, but volatility may rise into London.
⸻
6️⃣ Key Technical Levels
Resistance:
4,104
4,116
4,130
4,146
4,173
Support:
4,090
4,080
4,070
4,050
4,032
Golden Zone: 4,114 – 4,162
Breakout Levels:
• Buy Trigger: > 4,130
• Sell Trigger: < 4,070
⸻
7️⃣ Analyst Summary
Gold is attempting a recovery from the 4,032 low, but the broader structure remains bearish.
Asia session likely pushes into 4,104–4,116, where the strongest sellers are positioned.
Only a clean break above 4,130 changes the short-term tone to bullish.
Until then, the market remains in retracement mode, preparing for another leg lower.
⸻
8️⃣ Final Bias Summary
📉 Primary Bias: Bearish below 4,130, targeting 4,090 → 4,070 → 4,050
📈 Alternative Bias: Bullish only above 4,130, targeting 4,146 → 4,173 → 4,200
⸻
📊 ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 – WEEKLY PERFORMANCE RECAP 📊
📅 10 – 16 NOV 2025
💰 Precision. Consistency. Profit.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 MONDAY 10/11
✅ BUY (SWING) +2,850 PIPS
✅ BUY +20 PIPS
✅ BUY +210 PIPS
✅ BUY +110 PIPS
✅ SELL +20 PIPS
✅ BUY +210 PIPS
📊 Huge start — swing and intraday aligned perfectly.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔵 TUESDAY 11/11
GOLD
✅ BUY +110 PIPS
✅ BUY +90 PIPS
✅ BUY LIMIT +40 PIPS
✅ BUY +40 PIPS
✅ BUY +60 PIPS
❌ BUY -50 PIPS (SL)
✅ BUY +280 PIPS
✅ BUY +240 PIPS
LIVE SESSION
❌ BUY -40 PIPS (SL)
✅ BUY +120 PIPS
✅ BUY +60 PIPS
✅ BUY +30 PIPS
📈 Strong directional day with clean scalping in session.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟣 WEDNESDAY 12/11
✅ BUY +20 PIPS
✅ BUY +30 PIPS
✅ BUY +40 PIPS
❌ SELL -40 PIPS (SL)
✅ BUY +210 PIPS
✅ SELL +15 PIPS
✅ BUY +210 PIPS
📊 Trend continuation — minimal drawdown.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔴 THURSDAY 13/11
❌ BUY -40 PIPS (SL)
✅ BUY +210 PIPS
✅ BUY +110 PIPS
✅ BUY +60 PIPS
✅ BUY +210 PIPS
✅ BUY +60 PIPS
❌ BUY -80 PIPS (SL)
✅ SELL +210 PIPS
⚖️ BUY – BE
✅ BUY +240 PIPS
🔥 Huge bullish momentum — big intraday winners.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟡 FRIDAY 14/11
❌ BUY -60 PIPS (SL)
✅ BUY +110 PIPS
✅ BUY LIMIT +60 PIPS
✅ SELL +110 PIPS
❌ BUY -70 PIPS (SL)
✅ BUY +110 PIPS
LIVE SESSION
⚖️ BUY – BE
✅ SELL +250 PIPS
❌ BUY -40 PIPS (SL)
✅ BUY +60 PIPS
⚖️ SELL – BE
✅ SELL +180 PIPS
📊 High volatility day — precision paid off.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🪙 BTC/USD WEEKEND BONUS
✅ SELL +600 PIPS
✅ BUY +500 PIPS
✅ SELL +400 PIPS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📊 WEEKLY RECAP
🥇 GOLD NET PIPS: +6,575 PIPS
📱 BTC/USD BONUS: +1,500 PIPS
🚀 TOTAL WEEKLY PROFIT: +8,075 PIPS
📌 Signals Counted: 39 Wins | 8 SL
🎯 Win Rate: 83%
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔥 Another powerful trading week — GOLD swings and intraday setups delivered exceptional precision, and BTC weekend signals added strong bonus gains.
👏 Congrats if you profited! Let’s continue the momentum.
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 💼📈
Gold Key Levels (3900-4400)These are the Gold key levels ( Support and Resistance Levels) which I’ll be using for trading.
Here’s how I trade these levels:
- Close above a level → Buy setup
When a candle closes clearly above a level, it confirms bullish momentum and I look to enter long immediately after the close.
- Close below a level → Sell setup
A confirmed candle close below support signals bearish strength, and I enter short right after the close.
- Rejection from a level → Opposite trade
If price shows a strong rejection from a level, I trade in the opposite direction - rejection from resistance = sell setup, rejection from support = buy setup.
Bullish Analysis – XAU/USD (15M) SMC🇺🇸 BREAKDOWN
After the market swept all the sell-side liquidity below the previous lows, it became clear that institutions were accumulating longs at discounted prices. Right after that sweep, we got a clean bullish ChoCH, signaling the first shift in intent.
Then price left an FVG unmitigated, and as usual, the market created a manipulative bearish BOS—a classic fake-out designed to induce shorts and grab more liquidity before moving in the real direction. That manipulation brings price directly into the 15M Order Block, which aligns with a clean support area.
My entry is positioned at 4,039, exactly where I expect the institutional reaction:
• 15M OB
• Support zone
• Liquidity sweep
• Clear rejection
From that point, I’m expecting the typical sequence:
fake out → rejection → lower-timeframe confirmation → bullish expansion.
For exits, I’m targeting two key zones:
• TP1 at 4,073 for the first FVG mitigation and liquidity grab.
• TP2 at 4,101, a level with higher-timeframe inefficiencies waiting to be filled.
The setup gives me an R/R of 1:3, totally professional and risk-controlled.
This analysis follows the classic institutional flow:
liquidity → manipulation → return to origin → bullish continuation.
If I get a bullish BOS on 1M or 5M, this becomes an A+ setup.
GOOD LUCK TRADERS 🦾😎🖤






















