XAU/USD Key Support Test & Probable Trend ReversalTrend Duration Analysis
From the Trend Duration markings:
Recent Trend Durations Noted
Previous uptrend: 21 candles
Prior downtrend: 10 candles
Earlier uptrend: 37 candles
Your indicator suggests the probable length of the current downtrend may also approximate 21 candles, similar to the previous major cycle.
Right now, the downtrend is in early stages and may continue slightly lower into your SUPPORT LEVEL before reversing.
3. Key Levels (from chart)
Support Zone
4,035 – 4,000 (largest highlighted accumulation zone)
This is the critical support on the chart. Price has touched the upper area already.
Secondary Demand Zones
3,980
3,950
3,900
These represent deeper liquidity pockets if the support breaks.
Upside Targets After Reversal
Based on your projection lines:
4,150
4,200
4,300
4,350+ (max extension on dotted projections)
These levels match the Fibonacci-style structure visible on the right side.
4. Price Structure Analysis
✔ Bullish structure before drop
Price formed a strong 37-candle trend up, creating a higher high.
✔ Sharp correction now
The drop into support appears to be a classic liquidity sweep before a trend continuation.
✔ Support Reaction Expected
Your chart clearly shows the expected bounce path marked with a blue dotted diagonal.
If the support holds, we are likely to see:
A higher low formation
Trend reversal back into the projected targets
5. Probable Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario (High probability)
If price holds above 4,035 – 4,000, expect:
Trend reversal up
Recovery into 4,150 → 4,200 → 4,300
A full potential extension toward 4,350 – 4,400
This matches the indicator’s “Probable Length” of the next uptrend.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Low probability but possible)
If price breaks below 3,980, then:
Market will target 3,950 and 3,900 demand
Trend duration may extend beyond the predicted cycle
But the chart suggests this is a less likely path.
6. Final Summary
Gold is now in a bullish accumulation zone.
Current downtrend is likely near completion (based on the 21-candle forecast).
Support at 4,035 – 4,000 is the critical pivot zone.
A bullish reversal toward 4,200–4,350 is the most probable move if support holds.
Your chart essentially forecasts a buy-the-dip setup with upward continuation. CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! CBOT_MINI:YM1! NYMEX:CL1! CME:BTC1! COMEX:SI1! CME_MINI:RTY1! NSEIX:NIFTY1! CBOT_MINI:MYM1!
