Trade ideas
XAUUSD: Tension Builds as the Market Awaits DirectionWhat’s really happening here?
If you take a close look at today’s XAUUSD chart, you’ll notice a very dramatic picture: gold prices are being tightly compressed inside a converging triangle pattern.
This is a classic formation that reflects the battle between two market forces:
- Buyers are forming higher lows, showing increasing buying pressure.
- Sellers, on the other hand, continue to hold lower highs, consistently blocking every upward attempt.
As these two trendlines move closer together, the market becomes like a compressed spring; the longer it’s squeezed, the stronger the move will be once it’s released.
So, what does this mean?
In my view, it shows that gold is currently in a highly sensitive accumulation phase, and any breakout could trigger a major move in a new direction.
- If the price breaks above the 4,020 – 4,030 USD resistance zone, it could be the first signal of a new bullish wave targeting 4,070 – 4,100 USD.
- Conversely, if it breaks below the 3,960 USD support, a bearish scenario will likely unfold, pulling the price back toward 3,910 – 3,880 USD.
🔹 How to identify a real breakout (my way):
- Wait for confirmation with a strong closing candle and high volume.
- A successful retest of the broken zone (which now switches roles: resistance → support or vice versa) will serve as a “golden certificate” for a sustainable breakout.
- And remember, false breakouts often occur right before the market truly explodes.
🔹 Risk factors (from my perspective):
- If gold breaks the boundary without volume or with long-wicked candles, it could simply be a trap set by major players.
- Once the price falls back inside the triangle after a breakout, the entire structure becomes invalid.
✅ Conclusion (in my view):
- Gold (XAUUSD) is now in the “calm before the storm” phase.
- Buyers are quietly accumulating near support areas, while sellers defend the last line of resistance.
- A clear and confirmed breakout in either direction could set the stage for a big move this week.
Stay disciplined:
- Wait for breakout + confirmation + retest; that’s how you stay on the right side of the market and avoid false signals.
This is not financial advice, just my personal view of today’s chart — my way.
Trade safely and patiently, because sometimes doing nothing is also a strategy.
Gold consolidates below $4000Gold is continuing to consolidate inside of a dynamic support area below $4000 level. Volumes have dropped to the new low for the 4-weeks period, but open interest starts to slowly build at current price levels. The market may need more time to complete the consolidation and resume moving in the upward direction. Before bouncing back, it might retest the $3900 price area as shown at the chart.
Absence of macro economic publications freezes trading activity across the board, as traders lack new driving narratives.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – November 6, 2025
🔹 Momentum
D1 timeframe:
The D1 momentum is now closing in, signaling a possible transition phase with two potential outcomes:
• If today’s D1 candle closes bullish (green): momentum is likely to reverse upward, suggesting a short-term bullish correction.
• If today’s candle closes bearish (red): the downtrend may continue.
The current momentum behavior is unusual, reflecting market indecision between buyers and sellers after a strong decline. As a result, even a small impulse from either side could cause a quick momentum shift.
H4 timeframe:
Momentum on H4 is still in a downward phase but already showing early signs of closing and potential bullish reversal.
• If the current H4 candle closes bearish, the downtrend may extend.
• If it closes bullish and momentum turns upward, price could retest the 4028 zone.
H1 timeframe:
Momentum on H1 is now entering the oversold area, indicating that a reversal could occur within 1–2 more H1 candles.
If momentum turns down again from resistance, this could offer an opportunity for a short-term sell (scalp) around the nearest liquidity zone.
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🔹 Wave Structure
D1 timeframe:
As discussed in previous plans, the current structure still forms a W–X–Y correction in yellow, representing wave (4) of the larger cycle.
• The W wave has already reached the 0.382 retracement of wave (3) yellow — which often marks the typical end zone of wave 4.
• Therefore, the following X and Y waves may take longer to complete to maintain time balance within wave (4).
Meanwhile, the X wave (purple) remains relatively shallow, having retraced only about 0.236 of wave W (purple). Combined with the still-uncertain momentum discussed above, a potential rise toward the 4149 zone remains a realistic scenario.
However, if today’s D1 candle closes bearish, price could continue lower to complete wave Y (purple).
Given the current structure favors time balance rather than depth, this Y wave may unfold sideways rather than deeply downward.
At this stage, price is compressed within a narrow range, reflecting market hesitation. It’s best to wait for major catalysts such as the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could trigger the next decisive move.
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H4 timeframe:
The current X wave is developing within a narrow range under the form of a contracting triangle (a–b–c–d–e).
A triangle can only be confirmed once all five internal legs are completed.
Once that happens, a breakout above or below the triangle boundaries will define the next direction.
👉 For now, observation should be prioritized over action.
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H1 timeframe:
Wave labeling on H1 is somewhat noisy due to overlapping three-wave structures within a tightening range.
Tentatively, the labeling shows a W–X–Y correction in green, where wave X appears to be a triangle formation.
A final small drop forming wave e could complete this triangle (wave X in green). Once it’s done, a new Y wave in green may start unfolding upward.
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🔹 Summary
At present, the market remains noisy and compressed, making it unsuitable for swing entries.
• Avoid swing positions until the structure and momentum become clearer.
• Focus only on short-term scalp setups around key liquidity zones identified earlier.
• Wait for confirmation of direction and structure before committing to larger trades.
Gold price adjusted down below 4000 next week✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 11/03/2025 - 11/07/2025
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Friday, slipping below the $4,000 mark as traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook after this week’s rate cut. The metal trades near $3,985, down about 1% on the day and heading for a second consecutive weekly loss.
A stronger US Dollar and steady Treasury yields weigh on Gold, as markets trim bets on another Fed rate cut this year. Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious stance, noting that a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion” and policy will depend on incoming data.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price lacks bullish momentum, accumulates and corrects down below 4000
🔥 Technically:
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $4154, $4235
Support: $3953, $3884
🔥 NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
technical analysis for your chart on Gold (XAU/USDEUREX:FDAX1! EUREX:FDXS1! EUREX:FDXM1! ICEEUR:NCF1! ICEEUR:Z1! ICEEUR:RC1! EUREX:FGBX1! EUREX:FXXP1! ICEEUR:R1! ICEEUR:SOA1! Current Price: $4,002
Trend Structure: The pair is showing a potential reversal setup after a completed downward channel.
Recent Pattern: Price has broken slightly above the descending channel and is now retesting the breakout zone around the support level ($3,950–$3,980).
🔹 Key Technical Levels
Support Zone: $3,940 – $3,980
→ Strong accumulation area shown by multiple rejections and previous demand.
Immediate Resistance: $4,080 – $4,120
→ Minor resistance expected as the first hurdle after breakout.
Major Resistance (Target): $4,385
→ Marked as the final bullish target on the chart.
📈 Bullish Scenario
If price sustains above $4,000, we can expect:
A short-term retest of $4,080–$4,120.
Once momentum confirms above $4,120, bullish continuation toward $4,200 → $4,385 (main target).
✅ Buy Confirmation:
Break and close above $4,050 with volume.
Retest of $4,000 zone followed by bullish rejection candle.
🎯 Bullish Targets:
TP1: $4,080
TP2: $4,200
TP3: $4,385
📉 Bearish Scenario
If price rejects $4,000 and closes below the support zone ($3,950):
Downside may resume toward $3,880 – $3,820 range.
That would invalidate the bullish breakout and confirm channel continuation.
🚫 Sell Trigger:
3H close below $3,940.
🎯 Bearish Targets:
TP1: $3,880
TP2: $3,820
📊 Conclusion
Structure is shifting from bearish to bullish after a channel breakout.
The $3,950–$4,000 area is key — a stronghold for bulls.
Expect a bullish rally if support holds, targeting $4,385 in the medium term.
GOLD → Consolidation within a symmetrical triangle The market is holding gold back from strong movement, forming short jumps from zone to zone within consolidation. We have a symmetrical triangle within an upward correction channel.
Key supporting factors:
The US shutdown is becoming the longest in history, increasing economic risks.
China is canceling tax breaks for retailers. Trump may announce new tariffs related to China.
ISM Manufacturing PMI data (US) is ahead - a rare indicator during the shutdown.
The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has fallen to 69% (from 91.7% a week ago).
Technically, consolidation may continue until the price breaks one of the boundaries of the symmetrical triangle.
Support levels: 3990, 3956, 3915
Resistance levels: 4030, 4047, 4085
Traders are uncertain about the future direction, and as a result, the market is consolidating. There are limit levels both below and above that are holding back movement. Accordingly, until there is a clear fundamental background, it is possible to focus on trading within the channel. I expect a rebound from 3960 for a retest of resistance. However, a close above 4030 could trigger growth, while a close below 3956 would confirm the weakness of the market and trigger a fall to 3900.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold Consolidation Scenario setup what should Next Move ?Gold prices are currently trading in a weak and slow-moving range, as investors remain cautious and wait for a decisive move.
From a fundamental perspective, Fed Chair Powell ruled out any guarantees of a rate cut in December, which supported the U.S. dollar and limited gold’s upside momentum the key resistance zone remains around 4000. A breakout above 4000 and sustained bullish momentum could push prices toward the next targets at 4022 and 4045.
However, if the price fails to hold above 4000 and continues to look weak, we may see a downside correction toward 3968, and possibly 3920.
Resistance zone Target Points : 4022 / 4045
Support zone Target Points : 3968 / 3920
Market remains range-bound and waiting for clear direction before stronger movement resumes.
You may find more details in the chart,
Trade wisely best of Luck,
Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Supporting.
Gold Market Analysis (November 6th)Gold Market Analysis (November 6th)
Data Impact Diminished, Technical Adjustment and Safe-Haven Sentiment Battle
I. Market Review and Characteristics
Intraday Movement: Gold rebounded in the afternoon after fluctuating at low levels on Tuesday. The positive ADP data in the US session failed to suppress gold prices, resulting in a small positive close on the daily chart, continuing the high-level fluctuation pattern.
Key Phenomenon: The market reacted mildly to the ADP data. Tuesday's saturated bearish technical signal was partially digested, indicating that the current market is dominated by sentiment and policy expectations, with the influence of technical factors weakening in the short term.
Potential Risks: The non-farm payroll data may be delayed again, and concerns about a US government shutdown may trigger increased safe-haven sentiment, exacerbating emotional volatility in the market.
II. In-Depth Analysis of Technical Structure
Daily Chart
Moving Average Resistance: The price continues to trade below the 5-day/10-day moving average (3995), and the overall structure remains bearish, but yesterday's positive candle weakened the downward momentum.
K-line Combination: Tuesday's saturated bearish candle and yesterday's small positive candle form a continuation pattern in the fluctuation range. A breakout of the 3995-4010 resistance zone is needed to confirm the direction.
Hourly Chart Cycle
Range Convergence: The short-term center of gravity has shifted slightly upward, forming a 3960-3995 oscillation range, with volatility continuing to narrow.
Key Points:
Break above 3995: May trigger short covering, testing the 4010-4030 resistance zone.
Break below 3960: Will open up downside potential, targeting 3930 (lower boundary of the range).
III. Fundamental Dynamics and Driving Logic
Data Impact Diminished
The better-than-expected ADP employment data did not suppress gold prices, reflecting the market's greater focus on the risk of government shutdown and expectations of Fed policy.
If the non-farm payroll data is delayed, the market may shift to speculating on political uncertainty, thereby supporting safe-haven demand for gold.
Policy and Event Risks
Fed Signals: The probability of a rate cut in November remains at 89%, and the low-interest-rate environment continues to provide underlying support for gold.
Fiscal Risks: If the government shutdown continues, it may weaken the credibility of economic data and exacerbate market volatility.
IV. Trading Strategy and Risk Control Deployment
Main Force Tactical Arrangement
Short Position (Risk-Reward Ratio 1:2.5)
Entry Level: 3990-3992 (Moving Average Resistance Zone)
Stop Loss Level: 4005 (Breakthrough of Upper Range)
Target Level: 3975 (Reduce Position) → 3965 (Exit)
Bull Defense (Lower Boundary Strategy)
Trigger Condition: Bullish engulfing pattern or bullish divergence near 3960
Rebound Target: 3980-3990 (Take Profit in Batches)
Risk Control Points: Position size ≤ 8%, avoid sudden volatility during data lull periods.
If it breaks above 3995, exit short positions and temporarily observe.
Pay attention to whether there is a surge in safe-haven buying during the US session.
Professional Trader's Perspective: The current market is in a phase of technical and fundamental analysis:
Technical: Moving average resistance and the risk of breaking below the range remain; maintain the strategy of shorting on rallies.
Fundamental: Data delays and policy uncertainty may weaken technical guidance; be wary of emotional volatility.
Best Strategy: Use event-driven trading, set breakout orders at key levels, and strictly control risk with stop-loss orders.
Key Note: If the non-farm payrolls report is confirmed to be delayed this week, gold may see a double-driven market of "safe-haven buying + technical correction," and volatility may increase significantly.
Gold Outlook: Bears Stay in ControlGold continues to operate within a bearish market environment characterized by persistent liquidation and declining momentum. The recent structural shift reflects an ongoing reallocation of capital away from defensive metals toward higher-yield instruments, signaling a broader change in market positioning.
Trading activity indicates that each upward movement is being met with renewed selling interest, suggesting limited participation from institutional buyers. This behavior aligns with the prevailing sentiment of caution, as investors prioritize stability over speculative exposure.
The broader outlook remains subdued, with market conditions favoring continued downside until clearer evidence of renewed demand emerges. Gold’s performance reflects a phase of market adjustment, where declining liquidity and moderate volatility reinforce the persistence of bearish sentiment across the short-term horizon.
Gold Price Tests $4020 ResistanceGold Price Tests $4020 Resistance
Today's Trading Strategy: Continue to buy on dips.
1. Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve have cooled, causing the dollar index to retreat from its highs. Neutral to slightly bearish: The high-interest-rate environment is suppressing gold prices.
2. However, the ongoing US government shutdown and escalating international geopolitical tensions are a significant positive factor: safe-haven demand is the main force supporting gold prices.
Technical Analysis: Gold prices are currently facing strong resistance in the $4020-$4050 range.
As shown in the 4-hour chart: Gold prices are in a triangle consolidation pattern and need to break through key resistance or support levels to determine the next move.
Upside Target: If gold prices successfully break through $4020, the next target is $4110.
Downside Support: The first short-term support level is around $3960-$3980.
The more critical support area is at $3890. As long as gold prices remain above this area, the long-term uptrend structure remains valid.
Aggressive Strategy:
Buy: 3990-4000
Stop Loss: 3970
Target Price 1: 4050
Target Price 2: 4110
Conservative Strategy:
A more conservative strategy is to wait for gold prices to break through $4020 effectively, then establish long positions on a slight pullback, with a stop loss set in the $4020-4000 range, and a target price of $4070-4110.
Risk of Failed Breakout: If gold prices repeatedly attempt to break through $4020 but fail, and subsequently fall below the $3980 support level, it indicates that this upward move may have failed, and prices may fall back to the $3930-4000 trading range.
The continuous short positions in gold have ended perfectly!Whether gold can break through resistance levels in the near term depends on the convergence of three factors: First, whether the US dollar and US Treasury yields experience a more sustained decline, creating room for discounting; second, whether risk appetite strengthens the "insurance demand" for gold due to equity volatility and increased macroeconomic uncertainty; and third, whether net inflows of funds continue, especially whether passive funds and longer-term allocation funds enter the market simultaneously. If these three factors fail to move in tandem, the price will likely continue to consolidate within the $3930-$4000-$4050 range. If they move in unison, the resistance above these round numbers will weaken more smoothly. It's worth noting that the People's Bank of China suspended its 18-month gold purchase program in May 2024 but resumed it in November of the same year. The market currently expects a 67% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, up from around 60% the previous trading day. The Fed just cut rates last week, and Powell stated that this may be the last rate cut this year. The market's current focus is on macroeconomic data and when the US government shutdown will end—which is also driving safe-haven demand for gold. The congressional gridlock led to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, forcing investors and the data-dependent Federal Reserve to rely on private economic indicators. Since gold does not generate interest income, it typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments and periods of economic uncertainty.
Gold Technical Analysis: With the non-farm payroll data still pending, gold prices are likely to fluctuate little tonight, mainly consolidating. The battle between bulls and bears continues throughout the day. During the US session, gold rebounded to around 4027. We had already positioned short positions at 4015 and 4025, which subsequently fell back as expected, resulting in a profitable trade. This week's trading session has concluded perfectly, and we will not participate in the late-session trading. Our strategy remains to short below 4030.
From a technical analysis perspective, key resistance and support levels need to be monitored. The upper resistance level to watch is the 4020-4030 area. If gold prices can break through this range and hold, the upward trend may continue in the short term, potentially challenging higher levels. Before this breakout, we have consistently emphasized against chasing highs and have provided a strategy and analysis for shorting in batches around the 4015-4030 area. Those who follow me should have seen this. Gold faces significant upward pressure, and unless there is a major positive news event to stimulate a breakout, we will continue to maintain a strategy of selling on rallies. Due to the lack of non-farm payroll data, gold prices will continue to be treated as oscillating. The lower support level is seen in the 3975-3960 area. If this support level is effectively broken, it may trigger a new round of declines, potentially opening up further downside potential.
Nov 5, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis:
Yesterday formed a solid bearish candle, confirming that downward momentum remains dominant.
The key support lies between 3908–3915 — if this zone breaks, bearish momentum will strengthen further.
During the Asian session, watch the 3927–3930.5 area closely.
If this level holds, a short-term rebound toward 3960–3965 is possible. I’ll be watching that zone for potential short entries from resistance.
If price breaks above 3965, it would signal that bearish pressure is fading — only then will I look for buy setups on pullbacks into support.
For now, the overall bias remains bearish, though small intraday bounces can occur before any continuation.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 4000 – Psychological level
• 3994 – Resistance
• 3971–3980 – Resistance zone
• 3960–3965 – Major resistance
• 3947 – Support
• 3927–3930.5 – Support zone
• 3908–3915 – Key support
• 3900 – Psychological level
📈 Intraday Strategy:
SELL: If price breaks below 3927 → target 3922, with further downside toward 3915, 3908, 3905
BUY: If price holds above 3944 → target 3947, with further upside toward 3950, 3953, 3960
(⚠️ short-term rebound setup only — not a trend reversal signal)
What Happens Next?I believe that the third wave has ended on the daily and weekly charts and that we are currently in the fourth corrective wave. I tried to draw the details of the correction on the 4-hour chart. The correction we are in may not be a classic correction and may be more complex; however, the B movement we are in appears to be forming a symmetrical triangle, and with the 6th movement, these triangles may break down or up; that is, the direction is unclear. However, if we are within an A-B-C correction and B is currently forming, a downward C movement is likely to follow. If there is no daily stay above 4040, the C downward movement is highly probable. I have also indicated C's first target on the chart. These are not recommendations, but my own conclusions.
Gold in consolidation, what to look out forActually, I'm expecting prices to fall again, but if the chart suggests otherwise...
The price is still moving sideways and consolidating the latest slide.
Support in the USD 3,930 range is holding and the price is rising again within the range. However, volume is lacking.
The falling resistance line has now been broken. Could this be a turning point? We're not there yet, but the picture is brightening somewhat.
A breakout above USD 4,050 would be bullish,
while a break below USD 3,930 would be bearish.
XAUUSD ONE MORE LEG DOWNSIDE🟡 Technical Overview: Gold (XAU/USD) 1-Hour Chart
This 1-Hour chart for Gold (XAU/USD) exhibits a clear shift from a short-term upward trend into a strong bearish impulse, followed by a minor corrective bounce.
The price action was characterized by an ascending channel/uptrend (marked by the blue parallel lines) which defined the market's structure. Crucially, the chart shows a decisive breakdown from the lower trendline of this channel, which occurred around the $3,980 level.
Following the breakdown, the price experienced an aggressive sell-off, dropping to a swing low around the $3,920 zone. This area, marked by a Horizontal Support Level (HS), successfully halted the immediate decline and initiated a modest corrective bounce.
📉 Analysis and Projection
The overall bias has shifted to bearish in the short term, due to the confirmed break of the prior uptrend structure. The current price action is interpreted as a bearish flag or consolidation phase following the sharp impulse move down.
Resistance (Key Bearish Zone): The most significant resistance is the prior uptrend's lower trendline, now acting as a ceiling for the price. This line intersects near the $3,980 - $3,990 area. A strong rejection from this zone would confirm the breakdown and the continuation of the downtrend. The $4,000 psychological level also sits just above this zone, providing further strong overhead resistance.
Support (Key Bullish Zone): The immediate support is the $3,920 Horizontal Support (HS). This level successfully stemmed the aggressive selling and is the critical line that buyers must defend.
Projection: The path of least resistance is to the downside. The high-probability scenario projects a move down from the current consolidation, breaking the $3,920 support. The next significant downside target would be the lower horizontal line marked on the chart, around $3,880 - $3,900, which would fill the most recent move's potential extension.
Alternative Scenario: A confirmed move and hourly close above the $4,000 psychological and former trendline resistance would invalidate the short-term bearish bias, suggesting a potential re-test of the recent swing high.
The technical indications strongly favor a continuation of the bearish move, with the $3,980 - $4,000 zone serving as the critical pivot for the next move.
XAUUSD – WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION OF UPTREND – TARGET 4050 💛 XAUUSD – WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION OF UPTREND – TARGET 4050 🎯
🌤 1. Overview
Hello everyone 💬
Gold today is still in a phase of hesitation – waiting for signals to confirm a new trend.
On the H2 chart, the price has broken the downtrend line and is retesting this line. The structure of “higher lows” indicates that buying power is gradually gaining the upper hand.
The previous peak around 4018 is currently the decisive point for the trend – if the price confirms a breakout above, the uptrend could extend towards the 4050 area.
Currently, the market is fluctuating within the range of 3964 – 4018, and needs to break out of this range to determine a clearer direction.
💹 2. ICT Perspective
📈 The price has broken the downtrend line and retested the structure on the H2 chart – an early signal for the potential formation of an uptrend.
🟣 The 3964–4018 area is a short-term liquidity accumulation zone before the price expands.
🔹 OB 4040–4042 coincides with significant resistance, suitable for short sell (scalp) orders if there is a strong reaction.
💫 When the price exceeds 4018, the uptrend structure will be confirmed and the expansion target could head towards 4050 – 4077.
🎯 3. Reference Trading Plan
💖 BUY Scenario (priority when confirmed)
Entry: above 4018 | SL: 4011
TP: 4025 – 4033 – 4050 – 4077
💢 Short SELL Scenario (scalping)
Entry: 4040–4042 | SL: 4046
TP: 4022 – 4015 – 3998
⚠️ 4. Important Notes
Clear confirmation is needed when breaking the 4018 area before entering a buy order.
If the price continues to fluctuate within the 3964–4018 range, trading should be limited.
Today is Friday, manage risk more strictly, prioritize accuracy in each order.
🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2
Gold is showing positive signals 💛
Be patient and wait for reactions around the 4018 area – this could be the start of a new uptrend if clearly confirmed.
GOLD (XAU/USD): Bulls Eye $4,125 – Breakout Imminent?Gold dropped to a significant horizontal support level last week.
The price subsequently rebounded from this level, forming a rising triangle pattern on a 4-hour timeframe.
The neckline of this triangle is defined by an intraday horizontal resistance.
Its bullish violation (4H candle close above) can be a nice trigger to buy Gold with a confirmation.
Should this occur, a bullish continuation towards 4125 would be anticipated.
Conversely, a bearish movement and a break below the vertical support level could potentially lead to a further decline in price.






















