XAUUSD: Double-Top Breakdown Targets $3,928 Amid USD StrengthXAUUSD 4H Bearish
**Quick Analysis**
- 3rd test & reject at $4,000 (psych + 1.618 Fib)
- Double-top neckline broken @ $3,985 → $3,928 target
- RSI 72 divergence + bearish engulfing under 200EMA
**Fundamentals**
- FOMC signals 2 cuts in 2026 → DXY 108.50
- Ceasefire + Trump tariffs crush safe-haven bid
- COT: specs max long → squeeze incoming
**Trade**
SELL LIMIT $3,995–$4,005
SL $4,018 | TP $3,928 (1:4 RR)
Risk 1% | BE +25 pips
Trade ideas
Poteential bullish reversal?The Gold (XAU/USD) is reacting off the pivot, which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 50% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivto: 3,952.85
1st Support: 3,800.21
1st Resistance: 4,148.52
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Gold Trade Plan 06/11/2025 ( Buy Deep)dear Trader,
The price is above the 20 moving average, and the 4020–4030 zone will be a very important area for gold buyers. I expect the price to break this zone soon, with the first target at 4070 and the second at 4130. As long as the price remains stable above 4000, these targets will be achievable.
Regards,
Alireza!
Sink or Soar for GoldThe broader trend for gold remains bullish, supported by safe-haven demand, central-bank accumulation and weakness in the USD.
However, momentum appears to be softening: overbought readings, increased risk of pull-back or consolidation.
Support beneath the price: If gold corrects, watch for structural support zones to hold before bullish continuation.
Resistance above: A breakout above defined resistance could open a further leg higher; failure to break may invite a deeper correction.
Gold/Oil Signaling Market Is In A Super Bubble Gold = Fear
Oil = how strong the economy is.
Except for COVID we have never seen such an extreme reading. Yet people are buying up stocks like we will never again be able to produce another stock again as long as we live!
Tulips!
Here are just a few of the factors to consider that make this indicator important.
Why This Indicator Matters: Key Factors at a Glance
Gold’s Surge Signals a Shift
Gold has soared nearly 60% year-to-date, adding a staggering $10 trillion in market capitalization. This rally effectively erases all the stock market gains made since May 2021, including those driven by AI enthusiasm and speculative tech runs.
USD Can Only Be Measured Against Gold
As the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar’s real value is best gauged in terms of gold. This is a critical point—because when gold rises this dramatically, it reflects monetary inflation. A large part of the stock market rally has been driven by an expanding money supply, not true value creation.
Curiously, this inflation hasn’t shown up in oil prices, which have collapsed, despite geopolitical risks. More on that below.
The Dollar’s Worst Year in Decades
2025 marks one of the most significant declines for the U.S. dollar in recent history. Its role as the world reserve currency (WRC) has diminished—from 85% in the 1970s to just 50% today. Trade wars and tariffs are only accelerating this trend.
Monetary Inflation Drives Stock Prices
Stock markets are being lifted by monetary inflation, not organic growth. Stocks can be created endlessly—unlike gold. That makes gold a true inflation benchmark. The stock market’s rise is, in large part, a mirage, reflecting debased currency, not real productivity.
Oil Isn’t Behaving as Expected—Why?
Typically, when the dollar weakens, oil prices rise—because more dollars are needed to buy the same barrel of oil. But right now, oil prices are soft. Why?
Global demand is weak, outpaced by supply. Even the Russia-Ukraine war hasn’t changed that dynamic. In fact, Russia is now importing gasoline, as Ukrainian forces continue to target and disable refining capacity.
Here’s why this matters: when oil wells are opened, they can't just be turned off. If the refiners are destroyed and the oil has nowhere to go—it’s wasted. That’s a strategic win for Ukraine.
The Disconnect Between Stock Prices and Profits
While inflation has pushed stock prices higher, it hasn’t translated into equivalent profit growth.
Example: If a stock goes from $10 to $20 due to inflation, you'd expect earnings to go from $1 to $2 to maintain the same P/E ratio. Instead, the earnings yield is just 3.2%—a historical low. That’s a major red flag.
As pilots would say: WTF, over?
Here’s the likely explanation:
The money hasn’t reached consumers—it's concentrated in the hands of wealthy savers and leveraged investors, who are buying more stocks to sell to the next buyer willing to lever up even more. It’s a classic feedback loop—and a superbubble reminiscent of the tulip mania era.
The Smart Money Knows What's Coming
As this imbalance grows more obvious, central banks and institutional investors are quietly increasing their gold holdings—well above the pace of supply growth.
So when Gold/Oil (two important commodities) completely disconnect like this, and Gold explodes up like this, you'd better take notice!
Lastly, it takes 100 ounces to buy a new home. Last time this occurred was in 1978 ish, 2011, and now!
Debt to GDP in 76 was 33%, 2011 was 99% and today 126% It is not the same animal as the past.
GTFO & STFO! No matter where the prices for stocks go!
CAUTION!!!
Gold consolidates below $4000Gold is continuing to consolidate inside of a dynamic support area below $4000 level. Volumes have dropped to the new low for the 4-weeks period, but open interest starts to slowly build at current price levels. The market may need more time to complete the consolidation and resume moving in the upward direction. Before bouncing back, it might retest the $3900 price area as shown at the chart.
Absence of macro economic publications freezes trading activity across the board, as traders lack new driving narratives.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
Gold Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutFolks, Although price kept consolidating in a range, it has been nice enough to present an opportunity to identify a breakout direction.
On the lower timeframe, price is evidently gathering buy-side liquidity which may be swept before moving downwards.
However, bias currently looks bearish short term, but must be ready to adapt to market changes.
God with us, it's gonna be a profitable week.
GOLD Remains Bullish and a Little TrickyGOLD Remains Bullish and a Little Tricky
Also, today gold remains without any clear momentum. Despite being in a strong uptrend, the price is still not taking direction.
We have to be very careful with this long pause because it is not usual for Gold.
However, so far we have no sign of a change in trend.
Only whoever created the big bullish wave that doubled the price of gold can push it down. I see no other reason for gold to move down.
It has been a long time since it served as a hedge against inflation, war, and difficult times.
However, this is only my personal opinion.
Overal,l Gold is in a big mess.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
GOLD – Educational Sell Setup
(For learning purposes only — not financial advice)
📍Entry Zone: 4017 – 4020
🎯 Targets:
• TP1 → 4000
• TP2 → 3990
• TP3 → 3980
• TP4 → Open
❌ Stop-Loss: 4030
⚠️ Risk Management: Always manage your risk wisely — this setup is shared for educational study only.
💡 Tip: Use smaller lot sizes on initial entries to control exposure.
Latest Gold Analysis and Trading Strategies:
I. Fundamental Analysis
1. Safe-Haven Sentiment Supports Gold Prices
The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has sparked concerns about its economic impact. Combined with weakness in global stock markets (especially in tech and AI-related shares), market risk appetite has cooled, leading some capital to flow into defensive assets like gold.
Signs of a cooling labor market have intensified investor concerns about the economic outlook, further driving safe-haven demand for gold.
2. Monetary Policy Expectations Capping Gold's Upside
The market's reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook has resulted in a lack of strong follow-through buying for gold, limiting its upward potential.
Recent economic data and cautious statements from policymakers have kept the market in a wait-and-see mode, leading gold to maintain a range-bound pattern in the short term.
II. Technical Analysis
1. Weekly and Daily Chart Structure
The weekly chart closed with a bullish doji candlestick, indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears. The price is consolidating within the familiar range of $3928 - $4030.
A break above the $4030 resistance could open the door for further upside, targeting $4075 - $4100. A break below the $3928 support could lead to a decline towards the previous low near $3887.
2. Short-Term Signals
4-Hour Chart: A small ascending triangle pattern is forming. The price is facing temporary resistance around $4030, but the K-line is gradually moving above the short-term moving averages, suggesting a slightly bullish bias in the near term.
1-Hour Chart: The previous short-term uptrend has been broken. The $4030 level now acts as key resistance, with immediate support located at $3965. Monitor volume changes closely, as a significant increase in volume could signal an impending trend reversal.
III. Gold Trading Strategy
Trading Approach:
Primary Strategy: Focus on buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary tactic.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 4030 - 4050
Support: 3970 - 3950
Detailed Plan:
1. Long Strategy (Buying)
Look to enter long positions in batches if the price stabilizes within the 3970-3950 range.
Set a stop loss below 3940.
Take profit targets at 4030 and then 4050.
If the price strongly breaks above 4030, consider entering a light long position, targeting 4070-4100.
2. Short Strategy (Selling)
Consider light short positions if the price faces resistance in the 4030-4050 range.
Set a stop loss above 4060.
Take profit targets at 3980-3960.
If the price breaks directly below 3928, consider entering a short position on a pullback, targeting 3900-3887.
Risk Warning:
Closely monitor developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, signals from the Federal Reserve, and changes in global market risk sentiment.
Be cautious of potential acceleration in the trend if there is a significant increase in trading volume accompanying a breakout from the current range.
IV. Summary
Gold is currently trading within a short-term consolidation range between 3928 and 4030. Fundamental safe-haven support and pressure from monetary policy expectations are creating a tug-of-war. The recommended trading approach is to primarily buy near support and sell near resistance within this range, then follow the breakout direction if key levels are breached. Implement strict risk management and remain flexible to adapt to news-driven market movements.
XAUUSD – WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION OF UPTREND – TARGET 4050 💛 XAUUSD – WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION OF UPTREND – TARGET 4050 🎯
🌤 1. Overview
Hello everyone 💬
Gold today is still in a phase of hesitation – waiting for signals to confirm a new trend.
On the H2 chart, the price has broken the downtrend line and is retesting this line. The structure of “higher lows” indicates that buying power is gradually gaining the upper hand.
The previous peak around 4018 is currently the decisive point for the trend – if the price confirms a breakout above, the uptrend could extend towards the 4050 area.
Currently, the market is fluctuating within the range of 3964 – 4018, and needs to break out of this range to determine a clearer direction.
💹 2. ICT Perspective
📈 The price has broken the downtrend line and retested the structure on the H2 chart – an early signal for the potential formation of an uptrend.
🟣 The 3964–4018 area is a short-term liquidity accumulation zone before the price expands.
🔹 OB 4040–4042 coincides with significant resistance, suitable for short sell (scalp) orders if there is a strong reaction.
💫 When the price exceeds 4018, the uptrend structure will be confirmed and the expansion target could head towards 4050 – 4077.
🎯 3. Reference Trading Plan
💖 BUY Scenario (priority when confirmed)
Entry: above 4018 | SL: 4011
TP: 4025 – 4033 – 4050 – 4077
💢 Short SELL Scenario (scalping)
Entry: 4040–4042 | SL: 4046
TP: 4022 – 4015 – 3998
⚠️ 4. Important Notes
Clear confirmation is needed when breaking the 4018 area before entering a buy order.
If the price continues to fluctuate within the 3964–4018 range, trading should be limited.
Today is Friday, manage risk more strictly, prioritize accuracy in each order.
🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2
Gold is showing positive signals 💛
Be patient and wait for reactions around the 4018 area – this could be the start of a new uptrend if clearly confirmed.
A Bearish XAUUSD Setup You Can’t Afford to MissOANDA:XAUUSD has dropped sharply, reflecting the complete dominance of sellers who continue to push the market lower with strong bearish momentum.
After the decline, the price paused and then began to rise slowly, forming a familiar wedge pattern, a classic signal of trend continuation. Buyers attempted to regain control, but the buying pressure was weak, and every rally was quickly met with renewed selling.
Eventually, the price broke below the pattern with significant pressure and is now retesting the breakout area. This confirms that the market remains bearish, with limited chances of a meaningful reversal. If the price continues to break below this zone, further declines are likely to follow.
I anticipate the next bearish wave could reach around 3,885, aligning with the broader downtrend.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or financial recommendation.
Gold (XAU/USD) – 4H Market OutlookFOREXCOM:XAUUSD Bias: Short-term bullish retracement toward prior high
Price is currently reacting from a well-defined support zone around the 4,000 region, where buyers have shown repeated willingness to step in. The market has consolidated within this zone, forming a series of higher lows, which signals accumulation and potential exhaustion of the previous bearish leg.
My entry aligns with the structural demand. The rejection wick at the base of the zone suggests failure to break lower, strengthening the case for a bullish move. As long as price holds above the marked support, the market maintains a realistic path toward the previous swing high above 4,360, which is the projected target.
The bullish target area also aligns with the broad imbalance / inefficiency zone created during the earlier sell-off. Markets commonly retrace to rebalance these areas before deciding on the next major directional move.
Your stop-loss placement below 3,886, under the structural low and beneath the liquidity sweep, is logical. If price violates this level, it would invalidate the bullish thesis and confirm continuation to the downside.
In summary:
• Market is respecting a valid demand zone.
• Accumulation structure favors a bullish corrective leg.
• First major liquidity pool sits above 4,360 (your target area).
• Stop-loss below 3,886 protects the trade idea while honoring market structure.
⸻
Devil’s Advocate — What Could Break This Plan?
To strengthen your thinking, here are the strongest counter-arguments:
1. The “demand zone” may actually be redistribution.
If this is a bearish continuation, the sideways movement could simply be sellers reloading before pushing price to new lows.
2. Liquidity above 4,360 might NOT get hit yet.
Price could rally halfway into the inefficiency and reject aggressively without filling the entire imbalance.
⸻
Three Clarifying Questions you should ask(to tighten your analysis)
1. What confirms for you that this is accumulation and not redistribution?
2. If price only retraces to the midpoint of the imbalance (around 4,260), do you still hold full TP at 4,360?
3. What invalidation level—besides the SL—would signal loss of bullish momentum?
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 11/3/2025As explained in my weekly post, I am bullish on gold right now. For today's setup, I will look for buying opportunities from 3965-3972. If the line in the chart holds, gold will form a bullish wedge, which is a sign of upward continuation. My target for today is 4128.
LiamTrading – XAUUSD D1 | Scenario for Week 2 of NovemberLiamTrading – XAUUSD D1 | Scenario for Week 2 of November
Accumulation range 4047–3928, prioritize buying on breakout – watch for short at 4200 (FVG + Fib 0.382)
Overview: After the adjustment from the historical peak, gold is forming a bottom – accumulating in the price range of 4047–3928. The D1 structure still leans towards a medium-term uptrend if the price holds above 3928; the ~4200 area coinciding with a wide FVG + Fib 0.382 is a “liquidity pool” where strong reactions are likely.
Macro Summary
Hedge funds against public debt/deficit risks and net buying demand from some central banks/Asian blocs support the long-term trend.
The expectation of a cooling interest rate path in 2026 helps reduce pressure on gold, but pullbacks may still occur before major technical milestones.
Technical Analysis (D1 Frame – Trendline | S/R | Volume zone | Fibonacci)
Accumulation Range: 4047 (top of the box) ↔️ 3928 (bottom of the box). D1 closing above 4047 confirms an upper range expansion; breaking 3928 triggers a deeper drop to lower Fib levels.
Fibonacci of the latest upward wave:
Price is oscillating around 0.618 → tendency to form a base.
Deeper area if the base breaks: 0.5 ~ 3850 and 0.382 ~ 3710.
Key Resistance: 4090–4120 (mid-box area), ~4200 (FVG + Fib 0.382) – expected large liquidity/short-term reversal area.
Important Support: 3990–4010 (psychological/trading buffer level), 3928 (lower range boundary – breakout point).
Trendline: The medium-term uptrend remains if corrections do not close below 3928.
Trading Scenario for the New Week
Scenario 1 – Buy on trend when breaking the upper range
Condition: D1 closes above 4047, retest holds firm at 4038–4047.
Entry: 4048–4055
SL: 4018
TP: 4090 → 4120 → 4185–4205 (FVG + Fib 0.382)
Management: Take partial profit at 4090/4120, move SL to breakeven when reaching +1R.
Scenario 1b – Buy at the bottom of the box (fade range)
Entry: 3935–3945 (when there is a clear rejection candle/tail at 3928–3945)
SL: 3895
TP: 3995–4010 → 4040–4047
Note: If D1 closes below 3928, cancel the plan and switch bias to the bearish scenario.
Scenario 2 – Short reaction at the liquidity area 4200
Entry: 4185–4205 (FVG + Fib 0.382) when a clear rejection appears on D1/H4
SL: 4225
TP: 4120 → 4047 → 4010 (extended target: 3850 if there is a breakdown signal)
Note: Counter-trend order; reduce volume, exit quickly if D1 closes above 4205.
Risk & Invalidation
The medium-term bullish bias remains valid as long as D1 does not close below 3928.
D1 closing below 3928 paves the way to 3850 (Fib 0.5), even 3710 (Fib 0.382).
Strong news (CPI, employment, central bank speeches) may disrupt signals; wait for candle closure according to the chosen frame.
Summary
Gold is “spring-loaded” within 4047–3928. Priority plan: Buy on breakout–hold 4047 to target 4090–4120 and test ~4200; simultaneously watch for short reactions at 4200. If breaking 3928, switch scenario to bearish towards 3850 → 3710.
Gold Montly Overview and PlansGold closed October with a bullish hammer and notable volume, signaling a potential reversal and clear rejection above the 4500 level
Could Gold be looking to build value within the 3500–4000 zone? Very possible; which would be both healthy and expected in a macro uptrend.
I’m looking for a swing long upon a sweep of the quarterly open combined with the daily 50 EMA. Invalidation sits at the low of the daily bullish order block and target would be the daily Bear FVG.
As of now, 4H structure remains bearish while price continues to respect the 4H bearish order block and we are compressing within the EMAs. Price has been around the 4H MSB but still has not printed a strong Break of Structure Candle to confirm a shift.
This swing long thesis fails if price takes liquidity to the upside first.
Even though I'm bullish on gold overall, I’m leaning toward a bearish close for November given that October's close is a key reversal signal in my system. Still, I expect at least the daily Bear FVG to be filled, as wicks tend to get filled toward the 50% region, especially when considering the monthly wick. Historically, November tends to favor bullishness, but here I'm speaking strictly from a structure and price-action perspective.
XAU / USD 1 Hour ChartHello traders. Taking a look at the hourly chart, gold has broken out a bit for a push up. I am waiting to see if we can drop back towards the $4k area, to be sure it holds as support. Many times gold doesn't retest, it just moves, but for now I am waiting to see if we can come down to my area marked on the chart. This is just speculation and a trade idea. Let's see how things play out over the next hour or so. Big G gets a shout out. I am just looking for a potential scalp trade, but it is Monday, so I am in no hurry to force or rush a trade. Be well and trade the trend.
The continuous short positions in gold have ended perfectly!Whether gold can break through resistance levels in the near term depends on the convergence of three factors: First, whether the US dollar and US Treasury yields experience a more sustained decline, creating room for discounting; second, whether risk appetite strengthens the "insurance demand" for gold due to equity volatility and increased macroeconomic uncertainty; and third, whether net inflows of funds continue, especially whether passive funds and longer-term allocation funds enter the market simultaneously. If these three factors fail to move in tandem, the price will likely continue to consolidate within the $3930-$4000-$4050 range. If they move in unison, the resistance above these round numbers will weaken more smoothly. It's worth noting that the People's Bank of China suspended its 18-month gold purchase program in May 2024 but resumed it in November of the same year. The market currently expects a 67% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, up from around 60% the previous trading day. The Fed just cut rates last week, and Powell stated that this may be the last rate cut this year. The market's current focus is on macroeconomic data and when the US government shutdown will end—which is also driving safe-haven demand for gold. The congressional gridlock led to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, forcing investors and the data-dependent Federal Reserve to rely on private economic indicators. Since gold does not generate interest income, it typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments and periods of economic uncertainty.
Gold Technical Analysis: With the non-farm payroll data still pending, gold prices are likely to fluctuate little tonight, mainly consolidating. The battle between bulls and bears continues throughout the day. During the US session, gold rebounded to around 4027. We had already positioned short positions at 4015 and 4025, which subsequently fell back as expected, resulting in a profitable trade. This week's trading session has concluded perfectly, and we will not participate in the late-session trading. Our strategy remains to short below 4030.
From a technical analysis perspective, key resistance and support levels need to be monitored. The upper resistance level to watch is the 4020-4030 area. If gold prices can break through this range and hold, the upward trend may continue in the short term, potentially challenging higher levels. Before this breakout, we have consistently emphasized against chasing highs and have provided a strategy and analysis for shorting in batches around the 4015-4030 area. Those who follow me should have seen this. Gold faces significant upward pressure, and unless there is a major positive news event to stimulate a breakout, we will continue to maintain a strategy of selling on rallies. Due to the lack of non-farm payroll data, gold prices will continue to be treated as oscillating. The lower support level is seen in the 3975-3960 area. If this support level is effectively broken, it may trigger a new round of declines, potentially opening up further downside potential.
Gold Market Analysis (November 6th)Gold Market Analysis (November 6th)
Data Impact Diminished, Technical Adjustment and Safe-Haven Sentiment Battle
I. Market Review and Characteristics
Intraday Movement: Gold rebounded in the afternoon after fluctuating at low levels on Tuesday. The positive ADP data in the US session failed to suppress gold prices, resulting in a small positive close on the daily chart, continuing the high-level fluctuation pattern.
Key Phenomenon: The market reacted mildly to the ADP data. Tuesday's saturated bearish technical signal was partially digested, indicating that the current market is dominated by sentiment and policy expectations, with the influence of technical factors weakening in the short term.
Potential Risks: The non-farm payroll data may be delayed again, and concerns about a US government shutdown may trigger increased safe-haven sentiment, exacerbating emotional volatility in the market.
II. In-Depth Analysis of Technical Structure
Daily Chart
Moving Average Resistance: The price continues to trade below the 5-day/10-day moving average (3995), and the overall structure remains bearish, but yesterday's positive candle weakened the downward momentum.
K-line Combination: Tuesday's saturated bearish candle and yesterday's small positive candle form a continuation pattern in the fluctuation range. A breakout of the 3995-4010 resistance zone is needed to confirm the direction.
Hourly Chart Cycle
Range Convergence: The short-term center of gravity has shifted slightly upward, forming a 3960-3995 oscillation range, with volatility continuing to narrow.
Key Points:
Break above 3995: May trigger short covering, testing the 4010-4030 resistance zone.
Break below 3960: Will open up downside potential, targeting 3930 (lower boundary of the range).
III. Fundamental Dynamics and Driving Logic
Data Impact Diminished
The better-than-expected ADP employment data did not suppress gold prices, reflecting the market's greater focus on the risk of government shutdown and expectations of Fed policy.
If the non-farm payroll data is delayed, the market may shift to speculating on political uncertainty, thereby supporting safe-haven demand for gold.
Policy and Event Risks
Fed Signals: The probability of a rate cut in November remains at 89%, and the low-interest-rate environment continues to provide underlying support for gold.
Fiscal Risks: If the government shutdown continues, it may weaken the credibility of economic data and exacerbate market volatility.
IV. Trading Strategy and Risk Control Deployment
Main Force Tactical Arrangement
Short Position (Risk-Reward Ratio 1:2.5)
Entry Level: 3990-3992 (Moving Average Resistance Zone)
Stop Loss Level: 4005 (Breakthrough of Upper Range)
Target Level: 3975 (Reduce Position) → 3965 (Exit)
Bull Defense (Lower Boundary Strategy)
Trigger Condition: Bullish engulfing pattern or bullish divergence near 3960
Rebound Target: 3980-3990 (Take Profit in Batches)
Risk Control Points: Position size ≤ 8%, avoid sudden volatility during data lull periods.
If it breaks above 3995, exit short positions and temporarily observe.
Pay attention to whether there is a surge in safe-haven buying during the US session.
Professional Trader's Perspective: The current market is in a phase of technical and fundamental analysis:
Technical: Moving average resistance and the risk of breaking below the range remain; maintain the strategy of shorting on rallies.
Fundamental: Data delays and policy uncertainty may weaken technical guidance; be wary of emotional volatility.
Best Strategy: Use event-driven trading, set breakout orders at key levels, and strictly control risk with stop-loss orders.
Key Note: If the non-farm payrolls report is confirmed to be delayed this week, gold may see a double-driven market of "safe-haven buying + technical correction," and volatility may increase significantly.






















