Gold: Weekly OutlookAfter a successful breakout from the weekly range, the weekly price is now closing at the resistance trendline. I'm expecting a major pullback towards the new weekly RBS area before going up again. The pullback duration will be around 4-5 weeks before reaching the RBS target. Look for bearish structure in the lower timeframe to enter. Trade safely.
GOLD trade ideas
GOLD:" Bullish Breakout Toward Key Supply Zones $3665"Gold (XAUUSD) 15m Analysis:
Price has broken key resistance levels at **3636** and **3641**, indicating bullish momentum. The next potential **bearish supply zones** are marked at **3657.469** and **3665.220** (near **ATH – All-Time High**). Previous **liquidity grab** and **FVG (Fair Value Gap)** were mitigated. Price moved out of a **consolidation range** after a **liquidity makeup**. Key **support** rests around **3600.865**, with unfilled **FVGs** below that may act as future drawdown targets.
GOLD (4H) – Short from 3634 into 3614–3600 daily demand (major),
After a ~+300 pt, 3-week run, I’m looking for a corrective leg. The plan is to fade into the daily demand box and book most there, keeping a runner for a deeper flush.
Setup
Entry (sell limit/market): 3,634.2
Stop-loss: 3,666.0 (above supply sweep / top of red box)
Targets:
TP1 (major): 3,614 – top of the daily zone
TP2 (major): 3,600 – bottom of the daily zone (close bulk)
TP3 (aggressive): 3,504 – prior 4H pivot / extension
R/R (approx.)
Risk ≈ 32 pts (3666 – 3634)
To TP1: +20 pts ≈ 0.6R
To TP2: +34 pts ≈ 1.1R
To TP3: +130 pts ≈ 4.1R
Management
Move SL → BE after a clean 4H close ≤ 3614.
Trail above 15m LHs if momentum accelerates beyond 3600.
Invalidation: 4H close > 3666 cancels the idea.
Plan, not advice. Size small around news; I’ll take the majority of profits in 3614–3600 and reassess the reaction.
Gold price "V-shaped rebound", short-term bullish
💡Message Strategy
After hitting a record high last week, gold prices briefly encountered resistance and pulled back. However, buoyed by expectations of a Fed rate cut, gold prices remained stable above $3,600, fluctuating at a high level. The overall bullish trend remains strong.
Market news remained largely unchanged. Earlier, Fed Chairman Powell delivered a dovish speech, indicating downside risks in the job market and the possibility of a Fed rate cut. The subsequent release of dismal US non-farm payroll data, with new initial jobless claims reaching a four-year high, signaled a continued cooling in the labor market and further validated Powell's comments.
Furthermore, US President Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to slash interest rates as soon as possible. These factors have fueled high market expectations for a Fed rate cut, driving gold's recent rally. Although the rally encountered resistance last week, the rate cut and the international situation have limited any decline in gold prices.
📊Technical aspects
Initial jobless claims in the United States hit a nearly four-year high, further solidifying expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. This led to a short-term plunge in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, pushing gold prices back from their lows. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut remain high, providing significant support for gold prices.
Therefore, we recommend a volatile upward trend. Focus on support at $3,640, followed by $3,620, and upward pressure at $3,670.
From a technical perspective, the daily RSI remains in overbought territory, indicating limited short-term upward momentum and the possibility of continued range-bound consolidation. A break above the $3,658 resistance level could push the price back towards the all-time high of $3,675 and further challenge the psychological barrier of $3,700.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:3640,SL:3620,Target:3680-3700
XAUUSD_15MGold Analysis
Short Time
Elliott Wave Analysis Style The market is forming the ABC correction wave and the path of completion of this wave is to the 3630 range. And to continue the path of the main wave, the rise or fall will be determined at the number 3630!
Ask us for gold market gold signals
Gold 4H Outlook – Buy the Dip or Fade the Drop?Gold on the 4H timeframe is consolidating below 3,600 after a strong bullish run. Current structure shows price resting near premium levels, with liquidity building both above 3,600 and below 3,530. This suggests engineered sweeps before the next expansion.
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📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (4H):
• 🔼 Buy Zone 3,572 – 3,574 (SL 3,565): Fresh demand zone sitting at intraday discount; potential continuation area.
• 🔽 Sell Scalp Zone 3,530 – 3,526 (SL 3,537): Short-term supply/pivot area; scalp opportunity if price rejects.
• 📍 Liquidity Magnet 3,603 – 3,605: Upside imbalance zone likely to be rebalanced.
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📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔺 Buy Setup – Demand Zone Reaction
• Entry: 3,572 – 3,574
• Stop Loss: 3,565
• Take Profits:
o TP1: 3,585
o TP2: 3,595
o TP3: 3,605
👉 Demand block aligned with bullish order flow. Look for liquidity sweep and rejection to resume trend.
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🔻 Sell Scalp Setup – Short-Term Reaction
• Entry: 3,530 – 3,528
• Stop Loss: 3,537
• Take Profits:
o TP1: 3,520
o TP2: 3,510
o TP3: 3,500
👉 Intraday supply zone and pivot. Best used for quick scalps against trend, targeting downside liquidity.
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🔑 Strategy Note
Bias remains bullish overall, but intraday shorts are valid for scalps. The cleaner setup is buying into 3,572–3,574 for continuation toward 3,600+. Smart money may sweep liquidity at 3,530 before reversing higher.
xauusd4hTrading Outlooks for the Week Ahead
In this series of analyses, we review short-term trading outlooks and perspectives.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone close to the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or breakout from these levels will determine the next price movement toward the specified targets.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight critical price levels ahead and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
XAUUSD MARKET OUTLOOK | SEP 10.2025 ☄️ Gold Market Outlook 09/10 (Based on SMC) ☄️
📊Main Trend
🔤Previously, gold maintained a strong bullish structure with multiple Break of Structures (BOS) to the upside, consistently forming Higher Highs (HHs) and Higher Lows (HLs).
🔤After peaking around 3670, price entered a deeper correction, showing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) – the first signal of weakening bullish momentum.
🔤Currently, a minor bullish CHoCH has formed around the 3625–3640 zone, suggesting that buyers are attempting to regain control.
💡 Trade Plan
🔼Scenario 1: Short-term Buy
Entry: 3635 – 3640
Reasoning: Price just created a bullish CHoCH with a nearby unmitigated FVG.
Confirmation: Look for BOS to the upside on M5–M15 as Smart Money flow confirmation.
🔼Scenario 2: Mid-term Buy
Entry: 3620 – 3625
Reasoning: Strong demand + FVG confluence, acting as key short-term support.
Confirmation: Bullish reaction (wick rejections / engulfing candle) on lower timeframe.
🔼Scenario 3: Defensive Buy (Liquidity Sweep Zone)
Entry: 3600 – 3605
Reasoning: Large FVG + demand zone aligning with a previous BOS.
Confirmation: If market executes a liquidity sweep and taps this zone, it provides a high-probability accumulation entry.
GOLD: Israeli Airstrike Hits Hamas leaders in QatarGOLD: Israeli Airstrike Hits Hamas leaders in Qatar
🚨 Breaking NEWS:
Several blasts heard in Qatar’s capital after Israeli airstrike on Hamas leadership
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it had carried out a targeted attack on Hamas officials, shortly after the militant group claimed responsibility for an attack on a bus stop in Jerusalem that killed six people.
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The previous time Israel, Iran and the US started the conflict and GOLD fell and did not rise at a time when everyone thought it would explode.
The price is rising inside an ascending channel. A price reaction has already started. If it breaks out of the channel, then it may fall further as shown in the chart.
It may repeat the same pattern as last time. Drop at a moment that everyone is waiting for 4000.
Someone else may close the profits made so far.
Maybe the news we had today was news that someone else knew in advance. This could be a strong reason why GOLD rose for no reason in the previous days.
⚠️It is better if you avoid trading gold
⚠️I don't want you to sell GOLD, but is better if you know that also this scenario is possible if the price breaks down from the channel
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
XAU OUTLOOK 16-09-25Hey Guys, This is what what I see today.
BUY/SELL SCENARIOS:
BUYS:
1) Retest the 4h Bullish FVG at the 3675.98 level.
2) Create a 3/5m Bullish CHoCH with a body candle close (with a FVG).
3) Retest the 3/5m Bullish CHoCH level to capitalize on BUYS towards the 3710.00 level.
SELLS:
1) Body candle close below the 3664.35 level.
2) Retest the failed 4h Bullish FVG at the 3664.35 level.
3)Create a 3/5m Bearish Engulfing candle to capitalize on SELLS
towards the 3626.70 level.
Trade Smart, Trade according to your Trading Plans. This is not financial advise. Cheers!
XAUUSD – Bullish Rally with Support Zones Ahead of Retail Sales.Analysis:
Gold (XAUUSD) continues its bullish structure, forming new higher highs after breaking previous resistance zones.
📌 Key Supports:
1st Support: 3680
2nd Support: 3674 (previous resistance now turned support)
As long as these levels hold, I remain bullish with a target at 3708 for today.
📊 Fundamentals:
Today’s U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m (Previous: 0.4%, Forecast: 0.3%) and Retail Sales m/m (Previous: 0.5%, Forecast: 0.2%) could bring volatility. Weaker-than-expected results may support further upside in gold, while stronger numbers could trigger retracement before continuation.
⚠️ As always, apply proper risk management and use stop loss below support.
💡 **If you find this analysis useful, don’t forget to like 👍, comment 💬, and share 🔄 to support my work.
Stay Connected for Proper P&L, I will share soon.
Regards: Forex Insights Pro.
#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #Trading #PriceAction #RetailSales #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishSetup
XAUUSD Short: Correction After the All-Time HighHello, traders! The prior market structure for XAUUSD was a prolonged consolidation range, from which the price broke out with significant bullish momentum. This breakout initiated a powerful upward trend, with the price auction pushing through multiple resistance levels to establish a new all-time high. This marked the climax of the recent buying initiative.
Currently, following the peak at the ATH, the market has entered a corrective phase. Sellers have taken control in the short term, and the price is now declining from the highs. The auction is presently challenging the first major demand zone located between 3585 and 3570, but the bearish momentum appears strong.
The primary scenario anticipates a continuation of this corrective move. The expectation is that the current 3570 demand level will fail to hold against the selling pressure. A confirmed breakdown below this demand zone would validate the short thesis and open the path for a deeper correction towards the main ascending trend line. The take-profit is therefore set at 3565, targeting the area immediately following this breakdown. Manage your risk!
XAU/USD Update 2Next move on the way, focus on proper risk management & stay disciplined. Wishing you successful trades..!
Key Reason:
1. Bullish structure.
2. Fresh Demand zone.
3. Price hunt pre SSL and then it will move again upside.
4. Bullish confirmation is very important. From this demand zone we'll see further upside move.
This is not a financial advise. Let's see how it will work.
Interest rate cut, can gold reach 3700?✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 09/15/2025 - 09/19/2025
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) climbed 0.44% in Friday’s North American session, trading near $3,649 after rebounding from $3,630, as weak US labor and sentiment data strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. Softer University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, rising jobless claims, and a steep payrolls revision overshadowed this week’s inflation figures, reinforcing the view that the labor market is cooling. Markets now widely anticipate the first rate cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting, following Chair Powell’s signal at Jackson Hole that policy adjustments may be needed.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Financial markets await the outcome of interest rate cuts next week. Gold prices are expected to continue rising, reaching 3700.
🔥 Technically:
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $3674, $3700
Support: $3612, $3578
🔥 NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
GOLD → Retest 3620 - 3600 (imbalance zones) on the uptrendFX:XAUUSD is consolidating ahead of important news. The market is currently testing support, but the bullish pattern remains intact despite the intraday correction.
Gold is trading near $3650 in anticipation of US inflation data (CPI), which will determine the further trend. So far, the metal is consolidating below a record high of $3675.
High CPI data: will strengthen the dollar and weaken gold (bets on Fed easing will decline).
Low data: will push gold to new highs (the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts will be confirmed).
At the moment, the probability of a rate cut on September 17 is 92% (25 bps), with an 8% chance of 50 bps.
Technically, the chart is forming a consolidation against the backdrop of a bullish trend, the market is testing support, and if the bulls hold their ground in the key zone, traders may return to buying.
Resistance levels: 3638, 3649, 3657
Support levels: 3620, 3607, 3600
There is a battle for the 3620 zone. Consolidation above this zone will confirm bullish strength; otherwise, we can expect a deeper correction to the 3607-3600 zone to retest the imbalance area before further growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold Hovering Near Record Highs, Can Bullish Momentum Hold?Fundamental perspective
Gold remains anchored near all-time highs, reflecting a landscape where economic uncertainty and global tensions are shaping investor behavior. Data revisions showing slower job growth in the US fuel expectations of looser monetary conditions, bolstering the appeal of non-yielding assets. Traders are now positioning ahead of key inflation releases, which could offer a clearer signal on the Fed's rate path trajectory.
On the geopolitical front, escalating friction in Europe and the Middle East adds an extra layer of support, as market participants seek shelter amid heightened risk. Supply-demand dynamics in bullion markets and shifts in positioning by institutional players suggest that gold's resilience could persist.
In the short term, bullion appears poised to test resistance levels near record peaks, while any easing in risk sentiment or hawkish surprises from central banks may trigger intermittent retracements.
Technical perspective
XAUUSD is testing the 100% Fibonacci Extension and potential resistance at 3680. While the uptrend persists, with prices forming higher swings and holding above the Ichimoku Cloud, a retracement may be possible, following the recent price rally. If XAUUSD breaks the 3680 resistance, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 3820. Conversely, a retracement may prompt a throwback to the bullish fair value gap and support at 3520.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
Bullish Description
Hi traders
I consider buying gold at these prices a bit dangerous and risky, and I believe that there is a strong barrier at 3700-3715 to the growth of gold prices.
I have two scenarios that I have marked with blue and purple lines on the chart.
The first scenario is to reach the price of 3700-3715 and then drop to 3612 or even 3585. The second scenario is to correct to 3585 and rise to 3700.
Possible positions this week
A:Suitable prices for BUY positions
1)3612
2)3583
B:Suitable prices for SELL positions
1)3700-3715
(Of course, with approval from the market and the type of candles)
This is just an analysis and everyone is responsible for their own work.
Hoping for a good and profitable week.