Trade ideas
XAUUSDGold: The main trend remains up, but after testing the $4,380 level, the price was unable to break above this level and the price declined. We expect this to be a correction, with key support levels at 3,885 and 3,857. If the price can hold above 3,857, there is a high chance that the price will continue to rise.
** Very Risky Trade
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GOLD → False breakout of resistance after a rally...FX:XAUUSD is emerging from consolidation and entering a distribution phase. Spot metal is testing the 4085 mark, facing strong resistance amid progress in ending the US shutdown and weak economic data...
The US Senate has approved a funding bill, but the process takes time (voting in the House of Representatives and Trump's signature).
China: Gold ETFs rose 164% in the first nine months of 2025.
The People's Bank of China has been increasing its reserves for the 11th consecutive month (to 2,303.5 tons).
However, China's temporary easing of trade restrictions (exports of rare metals) supported risk-on sentiment. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is estimated at 66%.
Technically, we have bullish signals, but after strong growth, there may be a pullback...
Resistance levels: 4085, 4100
Support levels: 4050, 4046, 4030
Gold is testing resistance as part of its bullish run, which is temporarily halting its strong growth. The market may lack the potential to break through resistance, and in order to build up this potential, the price may form a pullback or consolidation...
Best regards, R. Linda!
XAUUSD (Gold) Analysis Read The DescriptionThe XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) chart indicates a strong bullish trend. Price has been forming higher highs and higher lows, showing steady upward momentum. It recently broke above a resistance zone, confirming continued buying pressure.
A possible trading idea:
Entry: Wait for a small pullback to the trendline or previous breakout zone.
Direction: Buy (long position).
Target: Around 4320 (the marked target area).
Stop-loss: Below the recent swing low or trendline for protection.
Overall, the setup suggests bullish continuation as long as price stays above the ascending support line.
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Another Golden Opportunity!Gold's corrective move the past few weeks has now led to a bounce, expect some more gains in a likely ABC bounce to be followed by further correction towards $3800ish.
This wave 5 might only be wave 1 finished at $4380, a wave 2 corrective decline to be followed by a stronger wave 3...of course anything can happen, new highs in the next week or so will be very welcome.
Let's see the pattern play out before we are clearer on the outcome, expect this bounce to peter out towards $4190ish, if a resumption of the correction develops, another golden opportunity presents itself around $3800.
Whatever happens, this wave 5 will see $5000 plus and possibly $6000...remember $3000?
Appreciate a thumbs up, good trading and God Bless you all!
OUTLOOK XAUUSD 1H Analysis (13th November 2025)This is not a financial advise, It's just a trading idea.
BUY/SELL SCENARIOS:
BUYS:
1) Body candle close above the 4211.72 level.
2) Retest the Previous Daily High at the 4211.72 level.
3) Create a 5/15m Bullish Engulfing Candle to capitalize on BUYS towards the 4272.50 level.
SELLS:
1) Sweep the Previous Daily High at the 4211.72 level.
2) Create a 5/15m Bearish CHOCH with a body candle close (with a FVG).
3) Retest the 5/15m Bearish CHOCH Level to capitalize on SELLS towards the 4149.00 level.
Trade smart, Trade according to your plan.
Short-term selling plan for gold!Entry: 4120
🎯 Final Target: 4088
❌ Stop-Loss: (Add your SL)
📊 Market Analysis
Gold is showing a clear shift in momentum as price faces rejection near the upper resistance zone. Sellers are stepping in around 4120, signaling potential downside pressure.
A break and hold below this level strengthens the bearish outlook, suggesting that the market may retrace toward the lower liquidity zone around 4088. The intraday structure is weakening, with bearish candles forming and buyers failing to push higher. This behavior supports the idea of a short-term corrective move.
Traders should monitor for retests of the 4120 zone, rejection wicks, or declining bullish volume to confirm continuation toward the target area.
Gold faces a test at 4100; time to prepare for positioningGold’s Downtrend Intensifies:
The decline in gold has accelerated, with the previous support at $4,150 now decisively broken. Based on prior price action, the next key support is located near $4,100, a level that the market tested twice during the earlier consolidation phase but failed to break, indicating strong structural support.
At the same time, the ascending trendline also converges near this area, adding further reinforcement to the support zone.
Therefore, $4,100 can be considered the key pivot level going forward. Should this level be breached, gold could face deeper downside risk, with a potential move back toward the $4,000 psychological level not out of the question.
However, as noted, the $4,100 area carries significant support, so monitoring the price reaction closely will be crucial. If this level holds, long positions may be considered.
If $4,100 breaks decisively, I believe momentum shorts (trend continuation trades) become viable.
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Watching 4153 Support for Next MoveGold failed to break above 4234 resistance yesterday and pulled back to retest the 4153 pullback zone. Market structure has turned temporarily bearish, with price closing below the 50MA.
If the 4153 support holds and price manages to reclaim the 50MA, a retest of 4234 resistance is likely. A clean break above 4234 could open the way toward 4,285.
However, if selling pressure continues and 4153 gives way, we may see 4115 tested next. A break below the pullback zone could extend the decline toward the lower support area at
4074–4027, where buyers may look to re-enter.
📌Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
4197
4234
4285
4322
Support:
4153
4115
4074
4027
GOLDPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
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Gold buy idea Gold been traded in a range for the past 10h .
Trade plane :-
#1 Gold has to break the daily swing with FVG with above average volume "spike" wait for market to retest the D swing H and look for engulfing candle or pin bar
#2 if I fail to break D swing H wait for market to drop back to micro demand and wait for the same confirmation engulfing candle or pin bar with above average volume
#3 do not trade NY open market is already trade in a small range NY might fake out just to grab liquidity. Wait 15 to 20 minutes for NY and London liquidity to set first then follow the instructions above.
If market keep traded in the same range then avoid trading for the day
GOLD HOLDS STRONG ABOVE $4,200! 🚀 XAUUSD DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS
Thursday, November 14, 2025
💰 GOLD HOLDS STRONG ABOVE $4,200! 📈
Current Price: $4,189 - $4,235 💎
Yesterday's Close: $4,231 (+0.86%)
Weekly Gain: +5.4% (MASSIVE!) 🔥
Status: 🟢 CONSOLIDATING AT HIGHS
🎯 MARKET UPDATE - WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW?
Gold is CONSOLIDATING above the critical $4,200 level after yesterday's explosive breakout! The market is catching its breath after a 5-day winning streak that pushed prices up over $330 from last month's lows.
Key Developments:
✅ Government Shutdown ENDED - US House passed funding bill
✅ Strong Above $4,200 - Holding key psychological level
✅ Fed Rate Cut at 80% - Economists now predicting December cut
✅ Four Consecutive Green Days - Bullish momentum intact
✅ Testing $4,235 - Approaching critical resistance zone
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Market Structure: BULLISH CONSOLIDATION 🟢
The rally has paused for a healthy consolidation. This is NORMAL and HEALTHY after a 5.4% weekly gain. Gold is building a base for the next leg up!
Key Observation: Price is respecting the $4,189-$4,235 range today - this is a coiling pattern before the next move.
Critical Support Levels (BUY ZONES) 🔵
Support 1: $4,189 - $4,200 (MAJOR - Former resistance)
Support 2: $4,157 - $4,160 (Strong base)
Support 3: $4,114 - $4,120 (Key level)
Support 4: $4,048 - $4,060 (Breakout point)
Support 5: $3,987 - $4,002 (November open)
Key Resistance Levels (SELL/TARGET ZONES) 🔴
Resistance 1: $4,235 - $4,243 (Current test)
Resistance 2: $4,252 - $4,254 (Critical breakout level)
Resistance 3: $4,313 - $4,320 (Next target)
Resistance 4: $4,356 - $4,382 (All-time high zone)
📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS
RSI (14): 64 (Bullish but cooling - Room to move higher) ✅
MACD: Positive and rising - Strong bullish signal ✅
Stochastic: Neutral zone - Allows for upward movement ✅
Moving Averages:
Price WELL ABOVE all EMAs ✅
EMA 20/50/200 all aligned bullish ✅
Golden Cross confirmed ✅
Volume: Strong on rallies, lighter on dips (Healthy) ✅
Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band - Volatility expansion mode
🎯 TODAY'S TRADING STRATEGIES
SCENARIO 1: BREAKOUT CONTINUATION 🚀 (65% Probability)
IF Gold Breaks Above $4,252:
This is the CRITICAL LEVEL to watch! A close above $4,252 signals resumption of the major uptrend.
LONG Setup:
Entry: Break and close above $4,252 with volume
Targets:
TP1: $4,313 📍 (+60 pips)
TP2: $4,356 📍 (+104 pips)
TP3: $4,382 📍 (+130 pips - All-time high retest)
Stop Loss: $4,210 (Below consolidation)
Risk/Reward: Excellent 1:3+ ratio ✅
SCENARIO 2: HEALTHY PULLBACK 📉 (35% Probability)
IF Gold Breaks Below $4,189:
A pullback would be healthy and provide better entry opportunities.
BUY THE DIP Strategy:
Entry Zone 1: $4,157-$4,170 (Best value)
Entry Zone 2: $4,114-$4,120 (Strong support)
Targets:
TP1: $4,200 📍
TP2: $4,243 📍
TP3: $4,280 📍
Stop Loss: Below $4,100
⚠️ NOTE: Dips are BUYING opportunities in this bullish trend!
💎 BEST TRADE SETUP FOR TODAY
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Recommended) 🎯
WAIT for one of these clear setups:
Option A - Breakout Trade:
Entry: Above $4,252 (confirmed break)
Target: $4,313 → $4,356
SL: $4,210
Option B - Pullback Trade:
Entry: $4,157-$4,170 (on dip)
Target: $4,243 → $4,280
SL: $4,135
DO NOT CHASE at $4,220-$4,240! Wait for clear direction.
🌍 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
BULLISH CATALYSTS ⬆️⬆️⬆️
✅ Fed Rate Cut Odds: 80% - Economists now strongly expect December cut
✅ Government Reopening - But delayed data creates uncertainty = Gold support
✅ Missing Economic Data - October CPI/jobs reports delayed/may never release
✅ Weak Labor Market - 11,000+ weekly job losses continue
✅ Dollar Weakness - DXY struggling at resistance
✅ Central Bank Demand - 634 tonnes purchased YTD, expecting 750-900 total
✅ ETF Inflows - $64 billion added in 2025
✅ Safe-Haven Demand - Geopolitical tensions persist
Risk Factors ⬇️
⚠️ Overbought Short-Term - RSI 64, near 70 threshold
⚠️ Profit Taking Risk - After 5-day rally (+5.4%)
⚠️ Resistance Zone - $4,235-$4,252 is strong barrier
⚠️ Data Clarity - If delayed data shows strength, could pressure gold
🔥 MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH WITH CAUTION
Analyst Consensus:
Short-term: Consolidation before next leg (Most likely)
Medium-term: Target $4,300-$4,400
Long-term: $4,700-$5,000 by 2026 (UBS/Goldman)
This Week:
Expected to test $4,252 resistance. Break above = Rally to $4,313+
End of November:
Analysts predict $4,230-$4,300 range
💡 PROFESSIONAL GAME PLAN
For DAY TRADERS:
⚡ Scalp the Range - Trade between $4,189-$4,235 with tight stops (20-30 pip targets)
Buy: $4,190-$4,200
Sell: $4,230-$4,235
Breakout: Above $4,252 → GO LONG aggressively
For SWING TRADERS:
📊 Wait for Clarity
Either breakout above $4,252 → Hold to $4,356
Or pullback to $4,157 → Buy for retest of $4,252
For LONG-TERM INVESTORS:
💎 Accumulate on Dips
Target: $4,150-$4,180 range
Goal: Hold for $4,500+ (2026 target)
Strategy: Dollar-cost averaging
📅 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH
THIS WEEK:
🎤 FOMC Speakers - Watch for rate cut signals
📊 Economic Data - Delayed reports may start releasing
🏛️ Government Funding - Impact on market sentiment
NEXT WEEK:
📈 November 21 - US Manufacturing & Services PMI
🎬 BOTTOM LINE (TL;DR)
Price: $4,189-$4,235 (Consolidating)
Bias: 🟢 BULLISH (Pullbacks are buying opportunities)
Key Level: $4,252 (Break this = Rally resumes)
Best Action: WAIT for breakout above $4,252 OR dip to $4,157
Risk Level: MEDIUM-HIGH (Volatility expected)
🔔 TODAY'S CRITICAL LEVELS
DO NOT CHASE between $4,220-$4,240!
BUY SIGNALS:
✅ Break above $4,252 with volume → GO LONG
✅ Dip to $4,157-$4,170 → BUY THE DIP
SELL SIGNAL:
❌ Break below $4,114 → Exit longs, potential reversal
NEUTRAL ZONE:
⚪ Between $4,189-$4,235 → Wait for direction
📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Trend: STRONGLY BULLISH ⬆️
Momentum: STRONG (but cooling) ⚡
Support: SOLID at $4,189-$4,200 🛡️
Resistance: TOUGH at $4,252 🚧
Pattern: Ascending channel with bullish flag forming
Next Move: Break $4,252 → Target $4,313-$4,382
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT RULES
✅ Position Size: Max 2% risk per trade
✅ Stop Loss: ALWAYS required - No exceptions!
✅ Take Profits: Lock 50% at TP1, trail rest
✅ Don't Chase: Wait for your setup patiently
✅ Respect $4,252: This is the make-or-break level
🎯 SWING TRADE SETUP (Multi-Day Hold)
Setup A - Breakout Play:
Entry: $4,254-$4,260 (after confirmed break)
Target 1: $4,313 (Hold 2-3 days)
Target 2: $4,356 (Hold 5-7 days)
Target 3: $4,382 (Hold 1-2 weeks)
Stop Loss: $4,210
Setup B - Pullback Play:
Entry: $4,150-$4,170 (if it dips)
Target 1: $4,243 (Hold 3-5 days)
Target 2: $4,313 (Hold 1 week)
Stop Loss: $4,120
🏆 PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Gold has successfully rallied 5.4% this week and is now consolidating at the $4,200 psychological level. This is textbook healthy behavior after a strong rally.
The Setup:
Consolidation forms a bull flag pattern
Next move determines short-term direction
$4,252 is the line in the sand
Most Likely Scenario:
Brief consolidation (1-2 days) → Break above $4,252 → Rally to $4,313-$4,356
Alternative Scenario:
Healthy pullback to $4,157-$4,170 → Strong bounce → Retest $4,252
Either way, the TREND IS UP! 📈
💪 TRADING PSYCHOLOGY TIP
After a big rally, markets MUST consolidate. Don't panic if price pulls back slightly. Use dips as OPPORTUNITY, not fear. The trend is your friend - and this trend is BULLISH! 🚀
🎓 LESSON: THE BULL FLAG PATTERN
What we're seeing now is a BULL FLAG:
✅ Strong rally (flagpole) - Done
✅ Consolidation (flag) - Happening now
⏳ Breakout (continuation) - Coming soon!
Action: Wait for flag breakout above $4,252, then go LONG!
🔮 FORECAST
Today: Range between $4,180-$4,240
Tomorrow: Test of $4,252 or pullback to $4,157
This Week: Break $4,252 → Rally to $4,300+
End November: $4,280-$4,350 range
December: Potential retest of all-time high $4,382
⚠️ FINAL DISCLAIMER
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Trading gold and forex involves substantial risk of loss. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Always use proper risk management including stop losses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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GOLD (XAUUSD) Daily Outlook – Bears Eyeing Major Drop Ahead!After a short-term bullish push, Gold is now testing a strong supply zone around $4,130–$4,200 where price previously rejected sharply. If buyers fail to break above this level, we could see fresh bearish momentum kicking in.
🔻 Key Zones:
Resistance (Sell Zone): $4,130 – $4,220
Support (Buy Zone): $3,650 – $3,720
📊 Scenario:
I’m watching for rejection candles or bearish confirmation around the red zone. If price reacts strongly, I expect a drop toward $3,700, completing a clean supply-to-demand move.
💡 Trading Idea:
Wait for confirmation before short entries — patience pays!
Target the green zone for potential long opportunities once we reach strong demand.
⚙️ Bias: Bearish until we see a clear breakout above $4,220.
What’s your take? Do you see Gold holding the supply zone or breaking through it? 🤔
👇 Drop your thoughts below!
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #PriceAction #SmartMoneyConcept #ForexTrading #TradingView #Frank
BULLISH ANALYSIS GOLD (SMC)BULLISH ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN – 3 TPs
1. Market Structure
Price first grabs liquidity above previous highs (Fake Out), shifts structure with a bearish BOS, and then delivers a bullish CHoCH, confirming a reversal in intention.
This sequence shows institutional manipulation before the real move.
2. Mitigation at the 15M Order Block
The pullback taps directly into a 15M Order Block, aligned with a support zone and multiple confluences.
A clean rejection makes this the ideal BUY entry.
3. Risk–Reward
The 1:2.8 R/R is strong, realistic, and well-aligned with the structure while keeping risk protected.
4. Three Take Profit Levels
TP1 – 4,202.74
Internal liquidity level; ideal for securing partials.
TP2 – 4,221.82
External liquidity zone where distribution may occur.
TP3 – 4,245.46
The major liquidity pool.
Reflects full bullish expansion based on institutional models.
5. Additional Confluences
The FVG-30H zones support the upside movement and act as price magnets.
💬 Motivational Message
“Your analysis doesn’t have to be perfect—your discipline and execution do.”
GOOD LUCK TRADERS…
XAUUSD more correction and fall before the NEXT huge gainTechnical Analysis: XAUUSD
1. Current Market Phase: Correction After Impulse
XAUUSD has concluded a significant bullish impulse wave, recording substantial gains. The market has now initiated a corrective phase.
2. Correction Outlook & Support Level
This corrective move is anticipated to extend further, with a projected target towards the key support zone of $3,700. This level represents a critical area where buyer interest is expected to resurface.
3. Forward Projection & Bullish Resumption
Upon a successful test and hold of the $3,700 support, we anticipate a consolidation period followed by a resumption of the primary bullish trend. The subsequent upward impulse is projected to target the $4,500 area.
Conclusion:
The strategy is to monitor the price action around the $3,700 support for signs of a reversal and a new long entry opportunity, targeting the $4,500 zone.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
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