XAU/USD - MY PERSONAL TAKEDear Friends in Trading,
Keynote:
I believe 3500 will remain a catalyst area in the short term.
Even if the rush cools down a little, any correction will be minor.
I've read numerous articles:
The common thread remains the fact that Gold have been accumulating
below 3500 for months -
*Institutional & Global Government "SAFE HAVEN", risk-off sentiment
*Geopolitical tensions
*Tarif uncertainties
*FED IR regulations etc.
The only question is:
What catalyst will force a minor correction and when?
I have highlighted a few possible support levels that may serve as
renewed potential Institutional buy areas in case of a correction.
My personal take:
Price only broke out now, it's only the beginning for yet another gigantic trend.
And if we can get an interim pull back/ correction....
DON'T MISS THE TRAIN!!
Gold remains the ENIGMA of our Industry.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
GOLD trade ideas
Is the price of gold really going up? 3500?⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) slips in Friday’s Asian session, pulling back from a five-week high near $3,425 as profit-taking and strong US GDP and jobless claims data lift the Dollar. Still, growing expectations of a September Fed rate cut, reinforced by dovish comments from NY Fed’s John Williams, help limit the downside for the non-yielding metal.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold prices increased thanks to expectations that the FED will cut interest rates in September. However, the large fomo market will cause the market to be too optimistic, requiring adjustments to accumulate before that time.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3437- 3439 SL 3444
TP1: $3430
TP2: $3420
TP3: $3410
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3366-$3364 SL $3359
TP1: $3375
TP2: $3383
TP3: $3390
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Reversal Head & Shoulders – XAUUSD (45M)🟢 Reversal Head & Shoulders – XAUUSD (45M)
🔹 Context
Timeframe: 45M
Pattern: Reversal Head & Shoulders
Key Levels:
Neckline: ~3337–3340
Liquidity Trendline: ~3310–3320
Target Zone: 3400+
---
🔹 Technical Breakdown
Liquidity sweep on the downside followed by sharp rejection.
Left Shoulder – Head – Right Shoulder structure forming clearly above liquidity trendline.
HT CHoCH confirming change of character → bullish momentum initiated.
Breakout & retest of Right Neckline (3337–3340) expected before expansion.
---
🔹 Trading Plan
Entry:
Aggressive: Break & close above 3340
Conservative: Retest of Right Neckline (3337–3340)
Stop Loss (SL):
Below 3310 (under liquidity trendline & invalidation zone)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 3360 (short-term liquidity grab)
TP2: 3385 (HTF resistance)
TP3: 3400+ (measured move of H&S)
---
🔹 SMC Confluence
HTF liquidity sweep → BOS confirmed
Neckline breakout aligns with CHoCH
Upside liquidity magnets: 3385 & 3400
---
📌 Conclusion: Reversal Head & Shoulders setup is aligning with SMC signals. If neckline holds, bullish expansion towards 3400 is highly probable. ✅
all-time highs.Trend: Overall, gold has been in a strong uptrend since early 2025, following a rising support trendline.
Resistance: A horizontal resistance zone was tested multiple times before being broken recently around 3,450 – 3,500.
Support: The rising support trendline and the horizontal level around 3,450 now act as strong support.
Current Price: Around 3,544.62 at the time of the chart.
Pattern: Price formed higher highs and higher lows, respecting the trendline, then broke above resistance.
Projection:
A possible pullback toward the support zone (3,450 area) before continuation higher.
Next target is the ATH zone (around 3,700 – 3,750) marked on the chart.
In short: The chart suggests a bullish structure with potential short-term retracement before another leg up toward all-time highs.
STORMY SPX500, NAS100 & GOLD BREAKOUT In this weekend's analysis, SPXX500 and NAS100 is forming a BEARISH CONSOLIDATION. The 4 hours chart shows some form of head and shoulders pattern on the NAS100 and expecting some consolidation between the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA on the 4H timeframe before a breakdown to the price target zone of 22,200.
SPX500 also forming a flatten tops with RSI divergence, while momentum and Stochastics cycle turned down suggesting a stormy sell off is brewing.
Gold on the other hand is set to have an explosive breakout into an all time high after a little consolidation around the resistance zone.
Thanks for support and have a great trading week.
Gold - This pattern just repeats!🚑Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) shifts bearish soon:
🔎Analysis summary:
With the previous 10 year bullish cycle, Gold perfectly followed market structure. With this 10 year cycle, Gold is still perfectly respecting market structure. Overall, it becomes more and more likely that Gold creates a top formation with a bearish correction following soon.
📝Levels to watch:
$3,500
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
GOLD Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 3,545.90.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 3,510.39.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Are you hoping for a dip in gold?Gold experienced a period of decline in the morning session. The 4-hour chart shows it has fallen below 3526, but it subsequently rebounded and corrected! I've shared with you a while ago that, technically speaking, every decline and rise is inevitably followed by at least three retests! Therefore, if gold doesn't completely break through the 3526 support level, it will inevitably rebound and then continue its downward trend! Since last week, gold has been hitting new highs, which is a major trend. However, the magnitude of the decline in the morning session seems to have disrupted gold's short-term bullish structure! This means that gold is entering a new pattern! This week is also a data week! Today's and tomorrow's price movements are crucial! Under the influence of the data, gold will experience significant fluctuations! If you are not a professional trader and are trading alone, please remember to set a strict limit on each trade from now on. Otherwise, I am worried that you will lose your previous profits and even wipe out your account!
Gold support 3508-3500
Market strength dividing line 3526
Resistance 3562-3572
3540: Consider selling
SL 3542
TP 3526
3526: Consider buying
SL: 3520
TP: 3550
GOLD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,538.09
Target Level: 3,432.86
Stop Loss: 3,608.24
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 8h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
GOLD → Retest 3400 before the news. Will there be a rally?FX:XAUUSD is pulling back slightly after hitting a new high of 3423. The trend is bullish, and on the D1 chart we see a breakout of a symmetrical triangle, which generally hints at bullish potential.
Gold is correcting after rising to $3423 in anticipation of US PCE inflation data.
Key factors: Doubts about the Fed's independence are limiting the USD's strengthening. Soft Fed rhetoric: Board member Waller supported a rate cut in September and further easing. The probability of a September rate cut is estimated at 87%.
Today's news: Core PCE inflation data (forecast: 2.6% y/y).
If below forecast → increased expectations for policy easing → support for gold
If above forecast → dollar strength → gold correction
Short-term gold dynamics depend on inflation data and its impact on Fed rate expectations
Support levels: 3405, 3394, 3386.5
Resistance levels: 3415, 3423, 3433
As part of the correction, the price may test liquidity zones and enter a consolidation phase ahead of the news. However, the market is one step away from distribution (exit from a symmetrical triangle). If the bulls keep the price above 3400 as part of the correction, we will have a good chance to catch the rally...
Best regards, R. Linda!
GOLD Breakout Alert | Is $3,500 Next for XAUUSD?old has officially broken out of a key consolidation zone around 3375 – 3400, retesting the structure with strength. The bullish channel remains intact, showing higher highs and higher lows since the start of the year.
📈 Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone: 3375 – 3400 (former resistance, now support)
Upside Potential: 3500+ if momentum continues
Invalidation: A daily close back below 3375
💡 Trading Idea:
As long as price holds above the red demand zone, bulls are in control. A healthy retest could set the stage for the next impulsive rally toward the channel top.
⚠️ Risk Note: Always manage risk carefully — markets can shift quickly.
👉 What’s your outlook on GOLD? Do you see this breakout running toward 3500+, or will bears drag it back inside the range? Share your thoughts below!
❤️ Don’t forget to like this post and drop your analysis in the comments — let’s learn together!
Gold and Its Hidden Catalyst: Is a New Bull Cycle on the HorizonBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Gold (Ticker AT: GOLD) is once again at the center of financial debate. After years of solid gains and an undisputed role as a safe haven, a little-explored factor could trigger an unprecedented bull cycle: the potential revaluation of the United States’ official gold reserves.
The Hidden Catalyst
The United States holds 261.5 million troy ounces in official reserves, valued on the books at only $42.22 per ounce, or roughly $11 billion in total. However, the current gold price hovers around $3,500 per ounce, revealing a vast gap between accounting value and market reality. Some lawmakers, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, have proposed updating these reserves to market prices. The impact would be colossal: such an adjustment would represent about 3% of U.S. GDP, potentially used to reduce the deficit, lower public debt, or create a strategic fund tied to new reserves in bitcoin.
Global Implications
A revaluation of this magnitude would not only reinforce gold’s monetary role but also free resources to alleviate deficit pressures and debt interest obligations. At the same time, it could have an inflationary side effect, acting as an indirect monetary injection that weakens the dollar against gold and other currencies. If realized, this move could influence other central banks, creating a chain reaction with greater revaluation of global reserves and increased demand for gold as a strategic asset. Central banks’ interest already supports this thesis: in 2024, net purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes of gold for the third consecutive year, and in 2025 buying momentum remains high. This trend validates gold’s role as a strategic monetary asset and increases pressure to adjust its official valuation.
Investor Perspective
A potential official revaluation of U.S. reserves could become one of the largest bullish catalysts in decades, solidifying gold as a hedge against U.S. fiscal risk, the erosion of the dollar as a global reserve currency, and geopolitical tensions. For investors, maintaining strategic exposure to the precious metal appears more relevant than ever. This can be achieved through physical gold, gold-backed ETFs, gold mining stocks, or hybrid instruments such as gold loans with additional yield.
The Gold Zapatero Sold at a Loss
During José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s government, the Bank of Spain carried out one of the largest reductions in gold reserves in recent history. Between 2005 and 2007, it sold around 242 tonnes, nearly half of the national stock, which fell from 523 tonnes to just 282 tonnes. In 2007 alone, more than 130 tonnes were sold under European central bank agreements aimed at diversifying assets and investing in sovereign debt. Since then, Spain’s gold position has remained virtually unchanged at around 281 tonnes, with no significant purchases, unlike other central banks that have increased their reserves in recent years.
At today’s price of $3,500 per ounce, Spain’s current gold reserves (281 t) would be worth approximately $31.6 billion. In contrast, the 242 tonnes sold under Zapatero fetched only ~$3.5 billion, meaning those reserves would now be worth ~$27.2 billion, more than seven times the sale price at the time.
Technical Analysis of Gold (Ticker AT: GOLD)
Gold cash is currently trading slightly above $3,500 per ounce, consolidating after the strong bullish surge in August. The technical structure shows a market still dominated by buyers, although signs of overextension and sideways movement are emerging. The price has lost the 50-day moving average support and currently rests weakly above the 100-day average.
Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: $3,578.37 – a psychological zone coinciding with recent highs and selling pressure.
Next Resistance: $3,600 – round number and likely target if bullish momentum continues.
Immediate Support: $3,510 – a short-term reference; a break could trigger a deeper correction.
Relevant Support: $3,499.57 – confluence zone from the last impulse, acting as strong support for the recent bullish move.
Technical Indicators
RSI: ~39.41%, in oversold territory, suggesting potential price recovery.
MACD: bearish signal, with a negative histogram reflecting fatigue in the bullish impulse.
Moving Averages: price comfortably above the 50-day average, maintaining the underlying bullish trend.
Point of Control (POC): $4,777.97 in the previous accumulation zone.
Probable Scenarios
The technical bias remains bullish as long as gold holds relevant support and stays above the POC. However, oversold conditions increase the likelihood of temporary sideways consolidation to prepare for new highs. A drop below $3,457 would test the 200-day moving average and challenge the current trend, though institutional buyers may use the $3,510 support area to reposition. The recent surge has pushed prices above a long-term range recently broken with some force, suggesting a potential revisit of supporting trend lines to retest and surpass current highs.
Planned Fiat Devaluation and Return to the Gold Standard?
Gold sits at an inflection point where structural and technical forces converge. On one hand, the hypothesis of an official revaluation of U.S. reserves introduces a potentially transformative factor that could start a broad new bull cycle. The market shows a clear underlying positive trend with necessary consolidation phases. For institutions, gold is gaining appeal as a hedge against U.S. fiscal risk, dollar pressure, and uncertainty. In the short term, the market is defending supports and seeking to recover above the 50-day moving average. Long-term institutional accumulation and global monetary policy reinforce the thesis that gold will continue playing a central role in the international financial architecture—not just as a safe haven, but as a backbone of the future monetary system. Europe, and particularly Spain, will need to take measures to position its reserves strategically in line with this trend.
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Gold Trade Plan 04/09/2025Dear Traders,
After the strong rally in gold, there was a $60 correction, which shows us that the third bullish wave has been completed and the price has entered a corrective phase. The 0.23 Fibonacci and 0.38 Fibonacci levels are potential reversal zones to the upside. Considering the ascending trendline shown in the chart, the 0.38 Fibonacci level intersects with the trendline. It seems that the price may drop to this zone, and the 0.38 level would be a very suitable area for a buy position with a target of over 2000 pips.
Regards,
Alireza!
Gold 03/09 – Smart Money Playbook: Buy the Dip, Sell the High🟢 Market Context
Gold maintains a bullish order flow after multiple BOS (Break of Structure) and ChoCH (Change of Character) confirmations. Price is currently consolidating near the 3,533–3,540 zone, with a clear FVG (Fair Value Gap) below. The market shows potential for liquidity sweep before another leg upward.
________________________________________
📍 Key Levels
• Resistance (Sell Zones): 3564 | 3575–3576 | 3586 | 3595
• Support (Buy Zones): 3528 | 3508 | 3494 | 3480–3478 | 3468
________________________________________
🛠️ Trade Ideas
✅ Buy Zone (Intraday Swing)
• Entry: 3480 – 3478
• SL: 3473
• TP: 3485 – 3490 – 3500 – 3515 – 3520 – 3530
📌 Expectation: Price to mitigate FVG and react from demand zone before continuation upward.
✅ Buy Scalp (Quick Reaction)
• Entry: 3501 – 3503
• SL: 3491
• TP: 3510 – 3525 – 3545 – 3550
📌 Expectation: Short-term liquidity grab above 3500 psychological level leading to bullish push.
❌ Sell Zone (Countertrend Play)
• Entry: 3575 – 3573
• SL: 3582
• TP: 3565 – 3555 – 3545 – 3530 – 3520
📌 Expectation: Strong supply zone where smart money may hunt liquidity before reversal.
________________________________________
🔑 SMC Insights
• BOS confirms bullish bias, but price may retrace to fill imbalance (FVG).
• Liquidity likely resting around 3480–3500 before a push to test 3575+.
• High probability of buying dips at demand and selling extreme supply zones.
Gold’s Next Move: DOWN!!!Although gold continues its strong upward trend, it still provides opportunities for pullbacks during the day. For example, it hit a low of 3470-3467 yesterday. Currently, the highest price of gold has reached around 3550. Gold continues to set new historical highs. There is no price behavior and technical resistance above it as a reference. But obviously, as long as gold remains above 3540, I will not choose to aggressively chase gold at high levels.
On the contrary, while gold is rising, I will still try to short gold at the top while setting protection. In terms of price behavior, gold started to rise from around 3322 and has reached around 3550 so far, with an increase of up to $228. Although there has been no decent retracement during this period, this strong momentum is indeed easy to form a combined force. However, once the market returns to rationality, the decline will definitely not be small. So at the current stage, I do not advocate going long on gold. On the contrary, I will actively look for opportunities to short gold!
In the short term, we first need to observe gold's performance in the 3540-3530 area. If gold cannot fall below this area during the retracement, it may have the potential to continue to rise. If gold falls below the 3540-3530 area, the first retracement target will be the 3525-3515 area. If this area is broken, it is likely to continue to 3500-3490.
Trendline Break — SHORT SetupOn the 15-minute chart, Gold has been in a steady uptrend, supported by a rising trendline. Price recently tested the 3579 level but has since shown signs of rejection and is now breaking below the trendline support.
This breakdown suggests that bullish momentum may be fading, opening the possibility for a short-term pullback. The immediate downside target is around 3545–3550, which aligns with both the 200 EMA and a prior support zone.
Trade Setup:
• Entry: Below trendline break (~3569)
• Stop Loss: Above recent high (~3579.7)
• Target: 3545–3550 zone
If the price reclaims and holds above the recent high, this bearish idea will be invalidated. Until then, the bias favors a corrective move lower.
Gold Extends Rally on Rising Rate-Cut Expectations📊 Market Developments:
Gold hit an all-time high around $3 508/oz before easing to about $3 494/oz, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. Markets are pricing in roughly a 90% probability of a rate cut this month.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Resistance: $3 500 – $3 525 – $3 560
• Support: $3 425 – $3 400
• EMA: Price remains above EMA 09 → bullish trend
• Candlestick / Momentum: Indicators (RSI, MACD, CCI) all show strong buy momentum.
📌 Outlook:
Gold is in a clear short-term uptrend. A breakout above $3 500 may lead to $3 525 – $3 560. On the downside, strong support sits around $3 425 – $3 400, ideal for potential pullback entries.
💡 Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD
Entry: $3 522 – $3 525
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: $3 528
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
Entry: $3 425 – $3 428
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: $3 422
Gold: False Breakout at 3500 – 3400 or 3600 Next?Gold Outlook: Historical Highs Above $3500 – Consolidation or Deeper Correction Ahead?
Gold has once again updated its all-time highs above the $3500 mark, confirming the strong bullish trend that has been dominating the market in recent months. However, immediately after this breakout attempt, we saw a corrective pullback triggered by a short-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This raises a key question for traders and investors: is this just a temporary pause before new highs, or the beginning of a deeper correction phase?
Macro & Fundamental Drivers
U.S. Dollar & Fed Expectations:
The probability of a September rate cut is now estimated at 90%, which remains one of the strongest supportive factors for gold. Nevertheless, temporary USD strength is weighing on the metal in the short term. Importantly, markets are increasingly focused on concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with political pressure (particularly from Trump) casting uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path.
Geopolitical Risks:
Escalating geopolitical tensions are also adding fuel to safe-haven demand. Recent reports highlight intensified strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian territory, raising fears of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This factor continues to support defensive assets like gold, even in the face of short-term dollar strength.
Upcoming U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI:
Today’s key macro event is the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Consensus expects a modest rise to 49, which would still leave the index in the contraction zone.
If the data meets or exceeds expectations, the USD could receive temporary support, keeping gold under pressure.
If the data misses expectations and shows further weakness, it could accelerate dollar selling and act as a catalyst for gold to retest or break above historical highs.
Technical Picture
Gold’s sharp rejection above $3500 suggests that the market is not yet ready for a sustainable breakout. At the same time, the long-term bullish structure remains intact. The key levels to watch in the short term are:
Resistance: $3485, $3500, $3505
Support: $3467.6, $3441, $3423
A sustained move below $3490–3485 may open the way for a deeper correction into the 3440–3420 support zone. On the other hand, a successful defense of these levels could lead to another retest of $3500–3505, though at this stage the market does not yet show strong momentum for an immediate continuation higher.
Trading Scenarios
Bearish Case (short-term): Failure to hold above $3485 may trigger selling pressure toward 3467–3440, and possibly even 3423 in the near term.
Bullish Case (medium-term): Any dip toward the support zone could attract buyers, especially if fundamentals (weak ISM PMI / dovish Fed expectations / geopolitical tensions) align. A confirmed breakout above $3505 would signal continuation toward new record highs.
🔑 Bottom Line: Gold remains in a bullish long-term uptrend but faces short-term correction risks. Today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release could be the decisive factor for immediate direction. Watch closely whether bulls can defend the 3485–3490 zone or whether bears push the price lower toward support levels before the next leg higher.