XAU/USD – Retest Before Takeoff📊 Market Structure
After several days of fluctuating within a narrow range, gold has finally broken through the main descending trendline extending from the peak of 4,108 USD.
Buyers are currently controlling the short-term structure by continuously creating BoS (Break of Structure) in the price range of 3,965 – 3,980 USD.
The Order Block 3,970 – 3,975 USD area has become an important dynamic support zone , converging with the newly formed trendline.
If the price continues to hold above this area, there is a high possibility of a light retest to absorb liquidity before breaking out to higher resistance zones.
Above, the Resistance 4,028 USD zone is the first barrier to overcome to confirm the medium-term uptrend, while the Liquidity Zone around 4,070 – 4,080 USD is the extended target of the breakout.
💎 Key Technical Zones
• Order Block (Support): 3,970 – 3,975 USD → potential retest area.
• Resistance Zone: 4,028 USD → first profit-taking point for buyers.
• Liquidity Zone: 4,070 – 4,080 USD → extended target if resistance is successfully broken.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ BUY Scenario – Retest OB:
If the price adjusts to the 3,970 – 3,975 USD area and a confirming candle signal appears (bullish rejection / engulfing):
• Entry: 3,972 – 3,975
• SL: 3,960
• TP1: 4,015
• TP2: 4,028
• TP3: 4,070
→ Prioritize trading with the trend after the uptrend structure is confirmed.
2️⃣ SELL Scenario – Reaction at Resistance:
If the price hits the 4,028 – 4,070 USD area and there is a strong reversal signal:
• Entry: 4,045
• SL: 4,065
• TP1: 4,015
• TP2: 3,985
→ Short-term scalp, only activate if a clear rejection signal appears.
🧠 Vincent’s View
Gold is showing signs of transitioning from accumulation to range expansion .
Breaking the descending trendline is the first signal for a new upward move, as long as the OB 3,970 area remains intact.
Buyers can take advantage of pullbacks to increase their position, targeting 4,070 USD – where significant liquidity converges above.
“Break the line, respect the retest — that’s where smart money joins the move.” ⚜️
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Updated: 07/11/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
Trade ideas
Gold – Technical Outlook🔴 Bearish Scenario (Downtrend)
Pivot Level: 4000
If price trades below 4000, continuation to the downside is expected.
🎯 First target: 3930 (support zone)
If 3930 breaks → full bearish extension towards:
🎯 Next targets: 3895 – 3865
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Uptrend)
If price breaks and holds above 4000, upside momentum will strengthen.
🎯 First target: 4030 (resistance zone)
If 4030 breaks and holds on the 1H or 4H timeframe → strong bullish continuation towards:
🎯 Next targets: 4081 – 4133
GOLD at the Brink Breakdown or Breakout?GOLD at the BrinkBreakdown or Breakout? —if the triangle breaks downward, it could fall toward the bearish PRZ zone. But if new positive news or rising Middle East tensions emerge, there's hope for a bullish move. For now, the news remains neutral.
What do you think—will GOLD fall or rise?
GOLD | Gains Capped by Trade Uncertainty and Fed ExpectationsGOLD – MARKET OUTLOOK | Gains Capped by Trade Uncertainty and Fed Expectations
Gold futures rose slightly but gains remain limited as investors assess the U.S.–China trade deal and potential Fed rate cuts.
Market sentiment stays cautious, with traders awaiting key U.S. data for direction.
Below 4,025: Bearish bias toward 3,982 → 3,960 → 3,921.
Above 4,025: Bullish recovery toward 4,053 → 4,104.
Pivot: 4,025
Support: 3,982 · 3,960 · 3,921
Resistance: 4,053 · 4,080 · 4,104
Gold remains bearish below 4,025, but a confirmed break above 4,053 could shift sentiment to bullish in the near term.
PREVIOUS IDEA:
Gold (XAUUSD) – 6 Nov | Watching Supply 4030, Demand 3990 Zone🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 6 November
Hello Disciplined Traders,
Welcome to the Chart Is Mirror Community 👋
Market Context
• Gold continues to show bullish momentum after retesting the 3935–3915.6 demand zone .
• As per our yesterday’s analysis , we expected a retest of the 3942.5–3936.4 POI zone for a long setup, but the market did not retrace that deep.
• Instead, it formed a new support around 3956 and broke structure ( BoS ), confirming the M15 uptrend aligned with the H4 pullback phase .
• During the morning session, the market respected structure and resumed its bullish momentum from the 3967–3963 demand zone .
Key Observations
• There is a supply zone around 4022.5–4030.9 , aligned with the M15 major LH level , where potential rejection can occur.
• If the market respects this zone, we can plan a short setup with LTF confirmation targeting the 3990–3982.5 POI buy zone .
• For bullish continuation, our buying POI zone 3990–3982.5 remains valid — if respected with LTF bullish confirmation , we’ll plan our next long setup accordingly.
• If the market fails to hold this buy zone, it could retrace deeper to 3942.5–3936.4 , which will act as our next buy zone of interest .
Execution Plan
• Observe market reaction around 4022.5–4030.9 supply zone for short opportunities.
• Watch 3990–3982.5 for potential long setups with confirmation.
• If broken, the next key buy zone is 3942.5–3936.4 .
• No confirmation, no entry — let structure lead your participation.
Stillness between impulses defines precision.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (Gold) | November 7, 2025
🔹 Momentum
D1 timeframe:
Daily momentum is turning upward, but just one more bullish candle will push it into the overbought zone. This suggests that the current upward move may not be sustainable, and a short-term correction could occur soon.
H4 timeframe:
H4 momentum is about to turn bullish from the oversold area. If this signal is confirmed, we can expect a short-term upward move. However, as the market is currently in a balanced state, even a small push from either buyers or sellers could shift momentum direction. Therefore, it’s better to observe carefully rather than act too early.
90M timeframe:
Momentum on the 90-minute chart is turning downward, indicating a possible short-term pullback before any further advance.
________________________________________
🔹 Wave Structure
D1 timeframe:
The ongoing rise in momentum indicates that wave X is still unfolding, meaning the corrective phase is not yet complete.
H4 timeframe:
Wave X is currently forming. The liquidity zone at 4028 remains a key level to watch.
If the price breaks above this zone, the next target will likely be the upper liquidity zone at 4070.
On the H4 chart, the green level around 4007 represents the highest-volume area, currently acting as a strong resistance.
Combined with the H4 bullish momentum reversal, it shows buying pressure exists, but the resistance remains heavy, making the 4007–4028 region a key battleground.
We should wait for a clear breakout before confirming the next direction.
90M timeframe:
• A triangle-like structure seems to be forming, but it’s not yet complete, so confirmation is needed.
• Waves a and b appear finished; the market may now be forming wave c (black) or wave d (black).
• Since H4 momentum is turning bullish, if the price breaks above 4012, it will likely confirm wave c continuation.
• Conversely, if the price drops toward 3950, completing a three-wave WXY (blue) structure, we can consider it wave d instead.
Currently, wave c (black) is temporarily labeled since the structure already shows three subwaves completed.
Therefore, I expect a decline toward 3950, where we can look for a short-term buy setup.
________________________________________
🎯 Trade Plan
• Buy Zone: 3952 – 3950
• Stoploss: 3935
• TP1: 3980
• TP2: 4000
XAUUSD Long: Demand Line Supporting Move Toward $4,080 TargetHello traders! Gold (XAUUSD) continues to show resilience as price action holds above the key $3,950 Demand Zone, signaling that buyers are still defending this area effectively. After forming a Double Top pattern near the $4,150 Resistance, the market entered a correction phase, which was guided by a clean break below the neckline, followed by a retracement defined by the Fibonacci Arc. This retracement created a series of Pivot Points that now serve as short-term references for buyers and sellers. The price has since found solid support along the Demand Line, aligning with the overall ascending Trend Line that has held firm since early October. Each rejection from this zone has been met with renewed buying pressure, suggesting that the current move could represent a continuation phase within the larger bullish structure.
Currently, gold is trading around the $4,000 level, consolidating just above its Demand Line. If bullish momentum accelerates from this area, we could see a push toward the $4,080 short-term target, followed by a possible test of the $4,150 major resistance — a critical level for confirming a broader breakout.
My base scenario anticipates a gradual upward move toward $4,080, which aligns with both the trend and key resistance confluence. A clean breakout above $4,150 would open the path for a stronger bullish continuation, potentially toward $4,200+. However, a confirmed breakdown below $3,950 could shift short-term sentiment to bearish, exposing the next support area near $3,900. For now, I maintain a bullish bias, expecting further upside momentum as long as the demand structure holds firm. Manage your risk.
Gold Rejection at Resistance – Bearish Channel Targeting 3930📉 Analysis:
The chart shows a clear shift from an uptrend into a bearish correctional channel:
1. Uptrend Broken
Price previously followed a clean uptrend channel, making BOS (Break of Structure) swings upward.
A ChoCH (Change of Character) occurred, confirming momentum weakening.
2. Strong Resistance Zone
Price entered the 4018–4030 resistance level, marked as a weak high.
This zone acted as a reaction area, causing multiple rejections.
3. Bearish Channel Formation
After hitting resistance, price began forming lower highs and lower lows inside a falling channel.
The rejection line confirms sellers defending the zone.
4. Expected Bearish Leg
The projected path shows consolidation inside the channel followed by a sharp downward impulsive move.
Clean liquidity below supports the bearish scenario.
5. Targets
Major target: 3930
(Highlighted as the trader's target and matches channel support + demand zone.)
📌 Summary
Gold is rejecting the 4020–4030 resistance and forming a bearish channel. A continuation downward toward 3930 remains likely unless price breaks above the resistance with strong momentum.
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Watching 3957–3918 for Buyer ReactionGold remains in consolidation after failing to break above the 4042 resistance yesterday. The rejection from the MA200, followed by a break below the 3989 support level.
Price is now trading around 3982, approaching the First Reaction Zone (3957–3918). If this zone fails to hold, further weakness could expose the Support Zone (3884–3851), followed by the HTF Support Zone (3820–3781) as deeper reaction levels.
To shift momentum back to the upside, buyers need to reclaim 3989 and 4042, with the MA200 continuing to act as a major dynamic resistance.
📌 Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
3989
4042
4090
4142
Support:
3957
3918
3884
3851
🔎 Fundamental Focus:
There are no major economic releases on the calendar today, but traders should remain cautious as political headlines and broader fundamental developments can still drive sharp moves in gold.
GOLD LONDON OPEN GOLD MARKET ON LONDON OPEN ADOPTED THE CURRENT BUY SENTIMENT FROM 3930-3928 DEMAND FLOOR DURING ASIAN SESSION .
THE TECHNICAL DIRECTION WILL BE HINGING ON THE PRICEACTION ON 3986.43 SUPPLY ROOF AS ILLUSTRATED ON THE CHART FOR REFERENCE ,BREAK AND CLOSE WILL PUSH PRICE INTO 4000-4010 ZONE OF THE DESCENDING TRENDLINE LINE WHERE WE HAVE ADDITIONAL 4HR SMA 50 GUIDING A SELL BIAS .
SO TECHNICALLY, BREAK AND CLOSE OF THE DESCENDING TRENDLINE AND SMA 50 ON 4HR TIME FRAME WILL BE ANOTHE BUY CONFIRMATION INTO 4043-4100 RESPECTIVELY .
FUNDAMENTALS OF GOLD.
Gold's reclassification as a Basel III Tier 1 asset marks a significant upgrade in how regulators and banks view gold within global financial systems.
Why Gold is Reclassified as Basel III Tier 1
Tier 1 Status Definition: Under Basel III, Tier 1 assets are the highest quality capital assets that banks can use to meet their core capital requirements. These assets carry a 0% risk weight, reflecting their safety, liquidity, and reliability as capital.
Gold’s Historical Status: Gold has already been recognized as a Tier 1 asset for capital adequacy since the Basel I Accords in 1988, due to its status as a safe store of value with very low default risk.
New Recognition (2025): Starting July 1, 2025, physical gold held by banks can be counted at 100% of its market value in regulatory capital calculations, instead of being subject to significant haircuts or lower classifications (e.g., previously it was treated as a Tier 3 asset with a 50% deduction).
High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) Label: This reclassification means gold is now officially recognized as a High-Quality Liquid Asset under Basel III, allowing it to qualify as part of banks’ liquidity coverage ratios (LCR), an important step for liquidity and capital management.
Regulatory Shift: This reflects changing perceptions that gold is not just a commodity but a true monetary asset. It is increasingly accepted as a reliable reserve asset by central banks and financial institutions worldwide.
Central Bank Adoption: This move aligns with continued aggressive gold buying by central banks, recognizing gold’s importance for capital reserves, systemic stability, and as an inflation hedge.
Significance
Banks can fully count gold toward core capital reserves.
Reduces capital burden, improving bank balance sheets and financial resilience.
Endorses gold as a strategic, monetary asset, not just a commodity investment.
Encourages institutional demand for physical gold and gold-related financial products.
Summary
Gold was reclassified as a Basel III Tier 1 asset starting July 1, 2025, reflecting its highest quality capital standing with 0% risk weighting and full market value recognition. This elevates gold’s status to a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) for regulatory purposes, facilitating banks’ liquidity coverage and capital adequacy. The change signals a major regulatory and market shift, acknowledging gold as a core reserve and strategic financial asset in modern banking systems.
#GOLD #XAUUSD
GOLD BIG FALLPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
GOLD Is Going Up! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for GOLD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 4,007.16.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 4,053.41.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
GOLD Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear friends,
GOLD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 3999.2 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 3985.2
Recommended Stop Loss - 4007.7
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold sideway around $4000 — waiting for a decisive breakout1️⃣ Market Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently fluctuating between $3994–$3998, maintaining a narrow range of $3990–$4000 for several hours.
The market is lacking fresh momentum as investors await upcoming U.S. economic data.
Both the USD and Treasury yields are moving sideways, keeping gold in consolidation mode without a clear breakout.
2️⃣ Technical Analysis:
• Resistance: $4005 – $4012
• Support: $3985 – $3975
• EMA50 (H1): holding near $3989 → short-term dynamic support.
• Consecutive small-bodied H1 candles with balanced wicks indicate a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
• RSI (H1) remains neutral around 50 → market is waiting for a breakout signal.
3️⃣ Market Outlook:
• This is a consolidation phase before a potential breakout, likely to occur within the next few hours.
• If H1 closes above $4005, gold could extend its rally toward $4025–$4040.
• Conversely, if price breaks below $3985, a short-term correction could be triggered toward $3970–$3955.
4️⃣ Trading Strategy:
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
Entry: $3985 – $3982
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $3979
🔻 SELL XAU/USD
Entry: $4012 – $4015
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $4019
Technical analysis for Gold (XAU/USD, 30-minute chart) 🔹 Chart Structure Overview
The chart shows a Bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern formation.
• The pattern is complete near the 0.786 retracement level (~$4040–$4055 zone).
• The final leg (D) has just completed, and price has reached the potential reversal zone (PRZ), confirming bearish reversal probability.
Target Level
Fibonacci Level Approx. Price Commentary
T1 - 0.618 retracement 3920–3940
Minor support; short-term profit-booking likely.
T2 1.0 projection 3820–3840
Key swing target; aligns with mid-March support.
T3 (Final) 1.618 extension ~3900
🔹 Summary
• Pattern: Bearish Gartley
• Current Zone: PRZ completed, reversal probable
• Confirmation: Await break below 3980
• Bias: Bearish
• Target: 3900
• Probability: High (pattern + divergence + volume confluence)
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always verify with your own strategy and risk parameters before taking any position.
XAUUSD-Setup Currently holding short-term buy positions as price continues to respect the ascending structure and maintain support above the recent consolidation zone. My plan is to scale in with additional buy positions upon a clean break and retest of the most recent resistance level, confirming bullish continuation.
If bullish momentum sustains, I’m targeting the 4500 region as the next major upside objective, followed by a potential extension toward 5000.
I will continue to monitor structural changes and adjust positions accordingly.






















