Quiet Storm:Bulls vs Bears in Waiting!Under the influence of CPI and initial jobless claims data, gold rose directly to the area around 3644. The short-term rise seems exaggerated, but it did not stand firmly above 3650, and even failed to reach the intraday high of 3649. The release of bullish momentum was relatively convergent; it can be clearly seen from the short-term candlestick chart that gold showed long upper shadows many times in the short term, and the trajectory and structure began to shift downward, and tested support downward many times, which also proved that the short-selling force was gradually recovering after being suppressed.
However, gold rebounded after touching the 3620-3610 support area several times during the retracement. Although the bullish momentum has declined in the short term, the bullish structure has not been completely destroyed, so the overall structure is still controlled by the bulls, and the bullish force still has enough strength to support gold.
Overall, as the bulls become more cautious and the bears gradually recover, gold is expected to maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term, and the fluctuation range is likely to remain in the 3655-3615 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, we can strictly stick to the trading points and execute high-selling and low-buying transactions within the area.
GOLD trade ideas
Wait for new highs and go long on pullbacksA good day starts with profits, now let's analyze the trend of gold today.📊
Gold is currently consolidating around 3650, with 3655-3665 forming short-term resistance above. The 4H MACD indicator is correcting a top divergence. Having first touched this resistance level in the European session, gold may experience a pullback. 📉As the price of gold continues to rise, the short-term support also moves up. Pay attention to the short-term support area formed by 3640-3630. 🌈If gold retraces support and then rebounds above this resistance level, it could first reach 3675, or even reach a new high of 3690-3700, as we anticipated yesterday.🚀
Intraday operations are mainly long at low levels, supplemented by short at high levels, and participate in trading in key ranges.
#3,700.80 mark aheadQuick update: My practical suggestion to keep Buying every dip has proven to be excellent recently as wherever you Buy this market, you won't regret the decision. I repeat once again, do not Sell Gold on this market at all costs. I spotted decent opportunity as before to position myself on Long-term towards #3,700.80 as I Bought #3,618.80, #3,625.80 and #3,630.80 towards #3,700.80 benchmark / all orders running with Stop's on breakeven as I maintain my #3,700.80 benchmark Target. This will be excellent addition to my already made Profits from Buying Gold on the Short-term. Well done if you followed.
GOLD: Short Trading Opportunity
GOLD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry Level - 3651.1
Sl - 3657.8
Tp - 3637.2
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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DeGRAM | GOLD will retest the support📊 Technical Analysis
● XAU/USD is consolidating within a descending channel, repeatedly rejecting the resistance line while defending support near 3,621.
● The structure suggests a short-term rebound attempt, with targets at 3,628 and 3,636 if buyers hold above the support line.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Gold is finding buyers as traders position cautiously ahead of the US CPI release, while subdued dollar strength and geopolitical risks maintain safe-haven interest.
✨ Summary
Bullish above 3,621; targets 3,628 → 3,636. Invalidation on a close below 3,621.
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GOLD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 3,651.90.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 3,609.43 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GOLD POWERS HIGHERThe U.S. dollar has been absorbing heavy flows for weeks, yet gold keeps ripping higher for the fourth straight week—a rare split that tells its own story.
Softening U.S. Data – CPI and retail sales came in lighter, pushing Fed cut expectations higher and weighing on real yields.
Central-Bank Buying – Emerging-market reserve managers continue record gold purchases for diversification.
Safe-Haven Demand – Energy market jitters and ongoing geopolitical tension keep institutional bids under the metal.
Dollar Liquidity Games – Despite dollar absorption, funding markets remain loose enough to support alternative stores of value.
Gold shows no sign of daily-chart weakness. It’s a “buy mode”
Market makers continue to press higher; every small-timeframe dip finds buyers.
My approach: trail stops behind each daily low.
XAUUSD: Buy to Win?Hello everyone, what’s your view on OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Looking at the H1 chart, the price action continues to tell a compelling bullish story. Each interaction with key levels has sparked notable moves in line with the trend.
Most recently, the reaction at a strong support zone showed a clear rejection. This could be an important clue, suggesting that buyers are still present and defending the uptrend.
This is just my personal observation, not financial advice. Always double-check your setups and manage risk responsibly.
Gold : Neutral Between 3,640–3,657, Breakout to DecideGold – Overview
Gold hit a fresh record high at $3,659 on Tuesday, supported by weak U.S. jobs data and growing bets on Fed rate cuts. Traders now await key U.S. inflation releases – PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday – which could drive the next major move.
📊 If inflation comes in hotter than expected, gold risks a sharp correction.
📊 If inflation is weaker, expectations for a 50 bps Fed rate cut could lift gold further.
Technical Outlook:
🔻 While below 3,657, price may correct toward 3,640. A 15M close below 3,640 would extend the decline to 3,629.
🔺 Stability above 3,657 on a 15M close would support further upside toward 3,665 → 3,683.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 3,657
Support: 3,640 – 3,629 – 3,612
Resistance: 3,665 – 3,683
previous idea:
If gold stays above 3,585 and breaks 3,680, it could target 3,70 External News Factors
Gold is supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, which continues to drive safe-haven inflows.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions (Russia–Ukraine, Middle East) and concerns over the U.S. debt crisis (interest payments surpassing $1.1 trillion, fiscal deficit nearing $2 trillion) further strengthen gold’s bullish momentum.
The U.S. dollar is showing slight weakness, adding more fuel to gold’s upside.
Overall Trend
Gold (XAU/USD) is in a strong uptrend, clearly shown by the steep rally from the support area around ~3,420 USD.
Price has already broken through several key Fibonacci retracement levels and is now testing the upper resistance zone (~3,650 – 3,680 USD).
Key Support and Resistance
Main Resistance: 3,650 – 3,681 USD (red zone on the chart). This is a strong supply zone where price is consolidating.
Nearest Support: Around 3,585 – 3,517 USD (Fibo 0.786 and 0.618 levels).
Major Support: 3,420 USD (aligned with Fibo 0.382 and the previous consolidation area marked “SUPPORT”).
Price Pattern
Within the resistance zone, price is showing signs of forming a triangle/sideways accumulation pattern.
A breakout to the upside could confirm a continuation pattern (trend continuation).
Trade Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (preferred): If gold holds above 3,585 and breaks through 3,680, the next target would be the psychological level of 3,700 – 3,720 USD.
Bearish/Correction Scenario: If price fails to hold 3,585, it could retrace deeper to 3,517 or even 3,420 before buyers step in again.
👉 In summary: The main trend remains bullish. Gold needs to consolidate and decisively break above 3,680 to aim for 3,700+. If it fails, a pullback towards 3,585 – 3,517 is likely before another buying opportunity.
Gold 3,600 – New Peak or a Reversal?Hello everyone, after a strong rally, Gold has now approached the solid resistance zone at 3,600. Price action shows signs of weakening buying momentum: each push is getting shorter, upper wicks are longer, and price has been repeatedly rejected around the 3,600 mark. This indicates that buyers are gradually losing strength, opening up the possibility of forming a Lower High and making way for a short-term technical correction.
On the short-term structure, the ascending trendline has been slightly broken, while price is “hanging” just below resistance without a clear breakout. If the market fails to hold above 3,600, the probability of a corrective decline will increase.
Key levels to watch: the first support lies at 3,546 (TP1). If this level breaks, gold may continue down to 3,528 (TP2), where liquidity is concentrated.
👉 What do you think? Will gold continue to rise, or is a reversal coming?
Gold: Cooling inflation, eyeing the 3.70x waveHello everyone,
The macro backdrop is currently favourable for gold, with both China and the US reporting weaker-than-expected inflation data: China’s CPI came in at 0% m/m and -0.4% y/y, with PPI at -2.9% y/y; meanwhile, the US posted PPI at -0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y, and core PPI at 2.8% y/y. These softer figures have pushed yields and the USD lower, while strengthening expectations that the Fed may cut rates at its next meeting. Adding to this, the PBoC continued to purchase gold in August, reinforcing confidence in long-term reserve demand.
On the H4 chart, the bullish structure remains intact: price is holding above the rising Ichimoku cloud, while FVG blocks below act as support. Gold is currently consolidating tightly in the 3.66–3.68 zone, with short-bodied candles suggesting sellers lack the momentum to break the trend. The nearest support levels to watch are 3.63–3.62, then 3.61–3.60, with deeper support at 3.585–3.575 along the cloud edge.
My view leans bullish: I’m looking for a shallow pullback and an H4 close above 3.66–3.68 to open the way towards 3.70–3.715, potentially extending to 3.72 if momentum holds. Only a close below 3.60 on H4 would make me consider a deeper retracement into the 3.585–3.575 cloud zone.
In short, softer inflation and consistent reserve buying are building a strong foundation for gold. What’s needed now is a firm close above 3.68 to confidently target the 3.70x region.
What do you think – will gold break through 3.70x in this move, or does it need another balance around 3.60 first? Share your thoughts!
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 9/12/2025Gold indeed dropped to 3620 yesterday and bounced from there. Interestingly, it has formed a triangle pattern. This is a bearish sign. Therefore, I would engage selling orders today at current market price. my 1st target is 3600. And if 3600 is broken, the next target will be 3550.
XAUUSD Stable uptrend eyes quick rise to $3695Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a short-term Channel Up on the 1H time-frame lately, fueled mainly by its 1H MA20 (red trend-line), with the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) acting as the last Support.
Right now it is holding the 1H MA20 and as long as it does, we expect it to repeat at least a +1.87% Bullish Leg, similar to the last two. Our immediate Target is $3695.
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CPI data is confusing,gold is fluctuating in a bearish directionGold Technical Analysis: Looking back at the recent trend, gold surged and then retreated on Tuesday, forming a shooting star pattern. However, the decline did not continue on Wednesday, indicating that the pullback was merely a one-off adjustment and lacks sustainability. It is a normal correction after a significant rally. Even if the market peaks, it will not be so simple. It will at least undergo a process of "high-level fluctuations turning bearish" or "second upward attack to lure more investors and then decline." In the short term, the rebound will continue to fluctuate, and it is unlikely to see significant rises or falls in a short period of time. Looking at the daily gold chart, the daily gold line has slowed down slightly. After continuous large volume, the daily line has turned into a small Yinxing candlestick pattern for consolidation. There is a need for a short-term pullback. Considering the short-term chart, the second high-point test failed to break through the previous high, the previous continuous large volume without a pullback, and the pressure from the second upward test. If there is no new high in the short term, there will be a partial correction around 3675-3657. The pattern will determine whether it is a deep pullback or a sideways consolidation.
Judging from the 4-hour gold chart, yesterday's gold price failed to achieve results in its attempt to rise again. There are signs of a downward correction. The 4-hour chart lost the middle track, breaking the unilateral upward momentum. At the same time, there is a need to further retrace to the lower track. Combined with the second high in the hourly chart near 3657, the second pressure turned into a decline. The strong market is to retrace and then break the high. Once the breaking power is stopped, it will go into a shock correction. Overall, today's short-term gold operation strategy recommends shorting on rebounds as the main strategy, and buying on pullbacks as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3640-3650 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3610-3600 support line.
Will gold fall below 3,600 this week?
I. Core Viewpoint
The current overall assessment of gold is: a short-term technical correction, entering a period of consolidation after a sharp rise. We recommend prioritizing shorting on rallies, with a light position at key support levels to try to capitalize on a rebound.
II. Multi-Dimensional In-Depth Analysis
1. News Analysis (Fundamentals)
Current Situation: The text indicates that gold prices are experiencing a "mild decline" and are in a "consolidation" phase.
Underlying Implications: "Consolidation" means that in the absence of new major news (such as unexpectedly strong US economic data, clear Federal Reserve policy signals, or major geopolitical conflicts), the market is digesting previous gains, and bullish and bearish forces are temporarily balanced. The current market is primarily driven by technical factors.
2. Technical Analysis (Core)
a) Trend Positioning:
The analysis clearly indicates that the previous rally, which saw "continuously high volume," has now entered a "normal correction" phase. This positioning forms the basis for all subsequent judgments—that the current situation is a pullback within an upward trend, not a complete reversal.
b) Key Technical Signals:
"Second High Test Failed" (Double Top Formation): This is the most core bearish technical signal. The price failed to break through the previous highs in two attempts (once to 3674 and once to 3657), forming a partial double top structure, indicating that bullish momentum is fading and bears are beginning to apply pressure.
"Losing the 4-Hour Middle Band": In swing trading, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart, or the MA20 moving average, is a key dividing line between bulls and bears. A break below this level signals the end of a short-term unilateral uptrend and a shift to market volatility or a correction.
K-line pattern: "Shooting Star" + "Small Yin Star": The daily chart shows a series of "Shooting Stars" (rising and then falling, indicating a peak) and "Falling Small Doji" (the market is hesitant), which together reinforce the expectation that the upward momentum is slowing down and a correction is needed.
c) Market Path Forecast:
The analysis suggests two possible peaking scenarios, indicating a very low probability of a direct "crash" at this point:
High-Level Oscillation Turns to Bearish: The price fluctuates repeatedly at the current level, forming a top platform before breaking down.
Second Upward Rally to Lure Buyers, Then Fall: The price rises again to create a false high (to lure in retail investors), attracting buying, before quickly reversing and falling.
This suggests that traders should not blindly chase short positions, but should wait for a rebound before intervening.
3. Trading Strategy and Key Points
Main Strategy: Sell at the rebound high and go short
Logic: Following the main direction of the "correction" trend, enter the market when the price rebounds to the resistance area, which offers a better profit-loss ratio.
Ideal Entry Area: 3643-3653, especially near the previous high of 3657.
Stop-Loss: It should be set above key resistance levels (such as 3660 or 3670) to prevent false breakouts.
Secondary Strategy: Buy on Pullbacks
Logic: Given that the overall trend remains a correction within an uptrend, prices may find buying support at strong support levels.
Ideal Entry Area: 3610-3600.
Stop-Loss: Must be set below the support level (e.g., below 3590). Once a break below this level is established, a stop-loss must be decisively implemented, as this indicates potential downside potential.
III. Comprehensive Recommendations and Risk Warnings
Trend Following: Current analysis clearly favors a short-term pullback, so a "short on rebound" trading strategy should be prioritized.
Risk Control is Paramount:
Must Set a Stop-Loss: Whether long or short, a stop-loss must be planned in advance; it is the lifeblood of trading.
Maintain a Light Position: During a volatile pullback, prices fluctuate frequently. Light positions allow you to maintain a better mindset for holding positions.
Focus on breakthroughs: Pay close attention to the breakthrough of the 3610-3600 support band and the 3643-3653 resistance band. A valid breakthrough of either side (especially a closing price breakthrough) will guide the next short-term direction of gold.
Gold in Focus: Pullback Sets Stage for Next MoveGOLD has been moving within a rising parallel channel. And recently price just pulled back sharply from the channel’s top and touched the lower boundary, where it was strongly rejected. That rejection wick indicates that buyers stepped in already.
If momentum picks up again, the channel top could even break and extend the rally further. I would target the top of the channel, taking into account the market context, it's achievable.
The risk, however, comes if price closes strongly below the channel’s lower boundary. In that case, the bullish structure breaks and the move could start downwards short term.
Gold - Buy or Sell this week??? (08-12/09)With the sustained accumulation over the past five months, gold has experienced a strong breakout from the $3,300 sideways range and reached a new all-time high around $3,600. The upward trend is clearly established. Therefore, we can consider buying and selling at the following price levels:
>>> SELL ZONE: 3684 - 3679
SL: 3689
TP: 3618 - 3596 - 3578 - 3565 - 3515
>>> BUY ZONE: 3560 - 3570
SL: 3550
TP: 3618 - 3678
Have a good day. Good luck buddies! :)
XAUUSD Long: Upward Rully Will ContinueHello, traders! The price auction for XAUUSD has been in a clear bullish phase, with the market structure defined by a well-established ascending channel. This pattern originated from a pivot point low near the DEMAND ZONE 2 and has since guided the price higher through a series of impulsive and corrective waves, confirming that buyers have maintained the initiative.
Currently, following a test of the channel's upper boundary, the price has entered a corrective phase. This pullback is guiding the auction towards a significant confluence of support located around the 3620 DEMAND level. This DEMAND ZONE is critical as it represents the intersection of a horizontal support area and the dynamic support line of the ascending channel.
The primary scenario anticipates a successful defense of this support confluence. A confirmed bounce from the channel's demand line would validate the integrity of the uptrend and signal that the corrective phase is over. This is expected to trigger the next impulsive wave higher within the channel's structure. The take-profit is therefore set at 3705 points, targeting a new structural high just below the channel's upper resistance line. Manage your risk!
What you do before a trade mattersTo succeed in trading, you need to place yourself in an optimal state as often as possible. It’s not just about the trade itself – it’s about what you do before. Your preparation is what determines how stable and effective you’ll be when it truly counts.
Of course, we can make profits even when we’re not at our best. But the risk is that we start acting in ways that don’t align with our strategy, our process, or our optimal performance. And that builds shaky foundations. For long-term success, you need something stronger.
Here are a few key things to focus on before you enter a trade:
🔋 Recharge your batteries
Trading demands energy and presence. Make sure you’ve filled up your resources before the market opens. Did you get enough sleep? Have you moved your body, worked out, or gotten fresh air? Are you taking breaks to let your brain recover? The more rested and energized you are, the sharper your decisions will be.
⏰ Decide WHEN to trade
Be honest with yourself – when do you perform at your best? Are you sharpest in the morning, or do you focus better later in the day? Do you notice yourself taking risky trades in the evening? Observe your own patterns and schedule your trading during the hours when you’re at your peak.
🚪 Shut out the noise
When you’re in a trade, your full attention needs to be there. Look at what’s stealing your focus. Maybe you should avoid reading chats or forums right before taking action. Do you have an environment where you can sit undisturbed and fully focused? Create the conditions for presence.
🧠 Got other things on your mind? Skip trading
Life always seeps into trading. If something has happened – maybe worry, conflict, or emotional turbulence – it will follow you to the screen. In those moments, it’s often wiser to pause, take care of what’s going on, and return to trading when you feel stable and clear.
Creating an optimal state means viewing trading as a whole – something that spans the entire day, not just the moments you click buy or sell. How you take care of yourself beforehand directly impacts your endurance, focus, and emotional balance.
💡 Pro Tip:
Start observing when you perform at your best. Is it morning or afternoon? Certain days of the week? Collect data on what truly makes a difference – then try to prioritize trading during those times.
Happy compassionate trading! 💙
/ Tina the Trading Psychologist
Focus on CPI, 3640, 3620 long and short key pointsThe market focuses on CPI data, and in the short term 3640-3660 becomes the dividing line between bulls and bears for gold.
From the news perspective, due to the sharp decline in employment rate, the employment and economic environment in the United States have been affected, and a September interest rate cut is almost a foregone conclusion, which has prompted the recent continuous rise in gold prices. Whether the interim high of 3675 means that gold has peaked remains to be seen.
From a technical perspective, gold rebounded yesterday to correct Tuesday's decline, reaching a high of around 3657 before continuing its technically bearish downward trend and retreating to around 3640. Today, gold's overall volatility in the Asian and European sessions was limited, with 3640-3660 forming a short-term upper pressure, also becoming the dividing line between bulls and bears.
If the CPI data is bullish for gold, the first thing gold needs to do is to break through the short-term pressure of 3640-3660. Once it breaks through strongly and stabilizes above 3660, gold will continue to rise and is expected to set a new high of 690-3700.
On the contrary, if the CPI unexpectedly falls short, gold will only rebound tentatively but will be unable to break through the short-term suppression of 3640-3660, then the bears will officially counterattack and the market will briefly bid farewell to the bulls. A break below 3600 would target the key support level of 3580.
In summary, focus on the 3640-3660 resistance level and the 3620-3610 support level. If the European session sees a pullback to support without a break, a small, light position can be considered, For cautious traders, it's advisable to set the stop-loss order with a buffer of $3-5, depending on their account size.with a potential profit target of $10-$30. More conservative traders can wait for the CPI data before entering a trade.