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Gold & Silver Outlook | Central Bank Buying & Correction (5 Nov)🟡 GOLD & SILVER MARKET ANALYSIS - November 05, 2025 Central Bank Buying:
Global central banks remain in accumulation mode after adding 1,000+ tonnes in 2024. * China: 2,298t | India: 879t | Russia: 2,335t * Emerging markets’ gold purchases +30% YoY, driven by de-dollarization and inflation hedging as USD reserves fall below 58%. Silver Demand & Deficit: * Industrial use hits 680M oz (+11% YoY) — a record. * Solar PV: 232M oz | EVs: 90M oz * Deficit: 215M oz — extending into 2025 as mine output stays flat.
📈 Outlook: Range $47–$55/oz, with potential breakout as green tech ramps. ETF & Market Sentiment : * Gold ETFs (GLD): +$3.6B inflows in Oct, but -$2.1B outflows in Nov on profit-taking. * Silver ETFs: Mixed flows, cautious sentiment. * Gold RSI: ~68 → short-term pullback risk. * Forecast: Inflows could rebound in Q1 if Fed resumes easing. Futures & Positioning : * CME Gold OI: 528,789 contracts (+WoW) * Implied Vol (Dec): 21.1% | Call/Put Bias: 60/40 (bullish skew) * Silver Vol: ~25% — traders shifting to policy-driven long bets. Macro Drivers : * Fed: 25bps cut + hawkish tone (CPI 2.6%) * U.S.–China Truce: Reduces tariffs, softens safe-haven demand. * BRICS: Advancing gold-backed settlement systems. * Dollar Share: Falls to 58% of global reserves. Performance & Forecast : * Gold: $3,941/oz | -1.5% today | +50% YTD * Silver: $48/oz | -1.0% today | +66% YTD
📊 Projection: Gold eyes $4,400 | Silver targets $57 by mid-2026.
🕐 Astro Window (UK Time): 1:00 PM–4:30 PM bullish spike expected. Bias : Short-term correction likely → overall bearish bias until supports retest.
Check chart for buying/selling levels.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by DECRYPTERS
Do Not think GOLD for few monthsWhen speculation hits high, there are some clear tell tale signs. Mums calling asking to buy the asset, retail public queuing on streets to buy the asset, media reporting every single percentage move of that asset. Gold fits the definition of that asset currently. Tecninally, monthly RSI is above 90 ! Last it was so high on charts was in 1974. From Elliot wave structure, we completed wave 3 grand cycle at 4100ish USD levels. On a cycle level, it is a clear 5th wave hyperextension - what that means ? A 5th wave hypertextension almost always bring the prices down to the level where it all started, which is at 2000 USD. Also a 90+ RSI on monthly takes a minimum of 4-5 months to come back to range levels. In a nutshell, now is not the time to buy gold. There will be many minor jumps on its way down but it is an asset to be avoided until Q1 end.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ChipsnCheese
XAU/USD – Gold Accumulates Before Breakout, Target 4,096 USD🔍 Market Context Gold is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern , reflecting short-term accumulation before forming a new breakout wave. After a sharp decline from the peak of 4,096 USD, the market has shown two instances of Change of Character (ChoCH) – an early sign indicating the return of buying pressure. As long as the price holds above the 3,959 – 3,917 USD range, the short-term bullish structure remains intact. This support zone serves as a crucial “discount zone” in the current accumulation cycle. 💎 Key Technical Zones • Support Zone 1: 3,959 USD → main structure holding area, coinciding with the lower trendline. • Support Zone 2: 3,917 USD → final liquidity reaction zone. • Resistance Zone: 4,040 USD → potential break & retest area. • Liquidity Zone: 4,096 USD → expansion target if the peak is broken. 🎯 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ BUY Setup – Favoring the bullish structure • Entry: 3,959 – 3,917 USD • Stop Loss: 3,905 USD • Take Profit:  – TP1: 3,985  – TP2: 4,040  – TP3: 4,072  – TP4: 4,096 ✳️ “Buy the discount” – prioritize buying orders at the confluence support zone of trendline + FVG to follow the SMC flow. 2️⃣ SELL Scalp – Secondary strategy when price reacts at the peak • Entry: 4,096 USD • Stop Loss: 4,108 USD • Take Profit:  – TP1: 4,072  – TP2: 4,040  – TP3: 3,985 ✳️ “Sell the premium” – only activate if there is a strong price rejection signal at the liquidity peak. 💬 Conclusion The short-term trend of gold remains bullish as the price stays above the trendline and continuously forms higher lows. The main strategy is buy the dip – sell reaction around the 3,959 → 4,096 USD range. The confirmation point for a strong bullish trend will be when the price closes steadily above 4,040 USD . “Smart money accumulates in silence before the market makes noise.” ⏰ Timeframe: 1H 📅 Update: 03/11/2025 ✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
DeGRAM | GOLD is testing a resistance level📊 Technical Analysis ● XAU/USD has confirmed a breakout from the descending resistance line and continues to form higher lows along the rising support line, indicating growing bullish momentum. ● The pair targets the next resistance at 4,094–4,138, with immediate support seen at 3,973, maintaining a short-term upward structure inside a rising channel. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Gold gains traction as investors price in a pause in Fed tightening and geopolitical risk supports safe-haven demand. ✨ Summary ● Long bias above 3,973; targets 4,094–4,138. Breakout structure and macro sentiment favor bullish continuation. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
2
Neutral Market Analysis — Key Zones in FocusPrice is currently consolidating within a key range, showing indecision between buyers and sellers. The lower imbalance zone around 3960–3980 is acting as a strong support area, while the upper FVG near 4000 is serving as a short-term resistance. If price manages to break and sustain above the FVG at 4000, it could open the path toward the Key Buy (KB) zone at 4016, signaling potential bullish continuation. However, if the market faces rejection near 4000, price may retrace back toward the support zone at 3960, where previous demand remains active. Key Levels: FVG Resistance: 4000 KB Zone: 4016 Support: 3960 The market remains in a neutral phase; wait for a confirmed breakout or rejection before considering any position.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by VaultX_Trader
Gold Market Analysis and Trading Strategy:Gold Market Analysis and Trading Strategy: Technical Analysis: Gold is currently facing short-term pressure, and key price levels need to be monitored. Gold prices are currently in a consolidation phase. Resistance Levels: $4030-$4050 and $4088 are key short-term resistance levels. If gold prices fail to break through these resistance levels, the downside risk is significant. Support Levels: Initial support is around $3960, with a more significant support zone in the $3800-$3700 area. A break below these key support levels could trigger a deeper trend correction. Trading Strategy: In the current volatile market, patience is advised. Avoid blindly chasing highs and lows. Day Traders: Consider establishing a small short position near the $4030-$4050 resistance zone, with a stop-loss above $4070 and a target price of $3980-$3960. Conversely, if gold prices fall back and stabilize around $3960-$3970, a small position can be established to profit from the rebound, but a strict stop-loss order must be set. Current Trading Strategy: Buy Price: $3970-$3980 Stop-Loss Price: $3950 Take-Profit Price: $4030-$4050-$4075
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Freja00_Golden
Gold on Intra-day Selling pressureTechnical analysis: Sellers still haven’t missed their estimate as Gold aggressively invalidated #4,000.80 benchmark on multiple occasions (posing as an hard Support zone), due geo-political tensions as a strong catalyst which is putting DX in High demand on Weekly interval. Environment and general market sentiment remains however Gold friendly (about to engage relief rally) due to the Supply-Demand mechanism. DX and Gold are still diagonally correlated, their charts are again on Positive-Negative match which is elemental sign of correlation. This suggests that DX tested its multi-Month Resistance zone, and Gold is under mild Selling pressure. This doesn't affect my local Low’s Buying strategy even though Gold is isolated within Hourly 4 chart healthy Descending Channel that by my estimations will sustain according to all accounts and there are no signs of a rebound yet (it is a reversal pattern most of the times). Weekly chart was Trading near strong Support belt which was aggressively corrected Intra-day so I will not make a strategy shift and will trust my Medium to Long-term Bull model as long as Buying spree on Gold lasts. I have to be excessively careful with today's session as it represents crossroads for the Short-term. My position: I have Sold Bought Gold throughout yesterday's session from #3,998.80 especially towards #4,008.80 (aggressive Scalps) and called it for the session. Gold delivered significant Intra-day losses on Asian session and turned timefrimes to Bearish territory. Today is Intra-day Sell session and will continue Selling Gold from my key entry points.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by goldenBear88
Gold Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutHello friends, further sideways movement continues as anticipated. However, we might see a bullish weekly candle in the coming week(s) as price intends to push higher but most likely not before clearing the liquidities it has recently left behind to the Demand level, which is the extreme low of this whole move, annotated in the chart. Then, we can anticipate a bullish spool to take the Buy-side liquidities at this week's candle's high. Furthermore, possibilities of spiralling up to the Daily bearish OB is also very open for price to mitigate. Overall, it is important to take note of the direction price breaks out and trade accordingly. Have a profitable week!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by oyemyk
Gold – Dancing Around $4000, Where Next?Gold prices may have stabilised after their sharp correction from an all-time high at 4381 on October 20th to a low of 3887 on October 28th, however traders still bear the scars from that excessive and volatile move which has left the popular metal dancing in a 3% range either side of 4000. Judging where Gold prices may move next has become more challenging with Federal Reserve policymakers trying to cool market expectations of a further interest rate cut at their next meeting in December. As a general rule, lower interest rates can help support Gold prices as it is a non-yielding asset. Not only that, but this changing outlook from the Fed has also seen the US dollar move up to its highest level for 3 months, which has further weighed on Gold prices, as it makes the safe haven asset, which is priced in dollars, more expensive to global investors. However, many of the drivers that attracted traders to add Gold to their portfolios remain, such as geo-political risks in Ukraine, credit risk and uncertainty regarding the direction of global economic growth. In this type of environment paying attention to the technical outlook can be just as important as staying appraised of macro headline risk. Technical Update: Does 3915 Mark the Extent of Corrective Moves? Gold has corrected over 11.25% from its October 20th all-time high into last Tuesday’s October 28th session low, unwinding the possible over-extended upside conditions that built during the sharp August 20th to October 20th price advance. The key dilemma for traders now is whether the recent weakness marks a healthy market correction or suggests a deeper shift in sentiment. If it’s the former, we could see renewed buying interest and a resumption of the broader uptrend. However, if it’s the latter, risks may lead to a further phase of price weakness. While the next directional theme for Gold remains uncertain, technical analysis can offer potential clues. By identifying key support and resistance levels, traders can anticipate where directional risks may emerge, especially if those levels break on a closing basis. A breach of support may signal deeper corrective risk, while a close above resistance could resume positive momentum. Potential Resistance Levels: Gold’s 11.25% decline from the October 20th high appears to have found support at 3,915, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September 18th to October 20th advance. Price action has since stabilised around this level, suggesting potential for attempts to renew upside. Traders may now shift focus to key resistance levels, with closing breaks above those levels needed to indicate further price strength. With upside developing following tests of the 3915-retracement support, traders could now be monitoring the 4076 level, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October price weakness. Successful closing breaks above 4076 could result in tests of 4134, the 50% level, even 4192, the higher 61.8% retracement. Potential Support Levels: As suggested above, with the latest phase of price weakness being held by the 3915 retracement levels, traders will likely be monitoring this as the first possible support. Closing breaks under this level could be a catalyst for continued price declines. Such moves while not a guarantee of a phase of further price weakness, could open tests of 3819, the October 2nd session low, even 3717, which is the September 24th downside extreme. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)Bullish Analysis Breakdown – XAU/USD (15M) 🧠 Market Structure The market shows a clear shift in structure: after a long bearish move, we see a Break of Structure (BOS) followed by a Change of Character (CHOCH) — signaling the potential start of a bullish phase. The fake-out under the support zone confirms the presence of Sell-Side Liquidity, which was later absorbed before price began its bullish reversal. 🧩 Confluences • FVG 1H: Excellent multi-timeframe confluence — the fake-out happens exactly inside a 1-hour Fair Value Gap, showing institutional mitigation. • OB 5M + Support Zone: Your entry (Buy 3,970) is positioned right inside the 5M Order Block and support zone — ideal area for bullish rejection. • BOS + Fake Out + Rejection: The three elements align perfectly, creating a Smart Money-style setup. 🎯 Trade Plan • Buy: 3,970 • Stop Loss: 3,959 • Take Profit 1: 4,000 • Take Profit 2: 4,015 • Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.88 The stop loss is safely below liquidity, while TP1 and TP2 are placed near psychological and liquidity targets — clean and strategic. 💬 Conclusion This is a well-structured institutional setup with clear logic, discipline, and professional presentation. GOOD LUCK TRADERS 🦾😎☝🏻 “Patience and structure build consistency.”
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
There’s a desynchronization between timeframes. 11:52 / UTC+2 Bias D1 – Short h4 / h1 – Long There’s a desynchronization between timeframes. A safe long will be confirmed once the price consolidates above 4030 as the first sign of long validation, with the main confirmation being a close above Fractal D1 4046. Until these confirmations appear, I’ll be waiting for short confirmations on h1. The current price range is 1.33% (as of 11:48 UTC+2), so I expect increased activity closer to the NY session. Below, internal swings remain a magnet, with the main target at PWL. On h1, the growth is quite solid, so the long may continue, with the primary target at Fractal D1 4046.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DK2_fx
GOLD Is Very Bullish! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 3,965.68. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 3,993.60 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by SignalProvider
1
Gold (XAUUSD) – Technical Outlook The gold price is currently trading around the key pivot level of 4000. We highlight the following scenarios: If the price stabilizes above 4000, the bullish scenario is expected to continue toward the resistance levels of 4030 and 4081, with the potential to extend further to 4133. However, if the price breaks below the pivot level of 4000, a corrective move may occur toward the strong support zone at 3930. This level is considered a major support area — a confirmed break and stabilization below 3930 on the 1-hour or 4-hour timeframe would signal a deeper decline toward 3865. Key Levels: Pivot Zone: 4000 Resistance Levels: 4030, 4081 Support Levels: 3930, 3895
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EvarMayi
Gold Montly Overview and PlansGold closed October with a bullish hammer and notable volume, signaling a potential reversal and clear rejection above the 4500 level Could Gold be looking to build value within the 3500–4000 zone? Very possible; which would be both healthy and expected in a macro uptrend. I’m looking for a swing long upon a sweep of the quarterly open combined with the daily 50 EMA. Invalidation sits at the low of the daily bullish order block and target would be the daily Bear FVG. As of now, 4H structure remains bearish while price continues to respect the 4H bearish order block and we are compressing within the EMAs. Price has been around the 4H MSB but still has not printed a strong Break of Structure Candle to confirm a shift. This swing long thesis fails if price takes liquidity to the upside first. Even though I'm bullish on gold overall, I’m leaning toward a bearish close for November given that October's close is a key reversal signal in my system. Still, I expect at least the daily Bear FVG to be filled, as wicks tend to get filled toward the 50% region, especially when considering the monthly wick. Historically, November tends to favor bullishness, but here I'm speaking strictly from a structure and price-action perspective.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by sabinaGM
GOLD Smart Money Might Be Preparing for Bullish Structure ShiftGold (XAU/USD) is showing early signs that Smart Money may be shifting from a distribution phase into a short-term accumulation phase. After a strong bearish leg marked by multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS), recent price behavior now suggests the potential formation of a Market Structure Shift (MSS) — an early indication that institutional flow could be changing direction. 💭 1️⃣ Market Structure – When the Market “Whispers” About Reversal On the H1 timeframe, we can clearly observe a chain of consecutive BOSs since the 4,150 zone, but what’s intriguing is the reaction around 3,925 – 3,940. Here, price failed to make new lower lows and began rejecting strongly — leaving several rejection wicks that reveal smart money absorption at discounted prices. This area represents the discount zone of the current range — where institutions often collect liquidity from trapped sellers before pushing price toward premium levels for redistribution. The latest Break of Market Structure (BMS) around 3,987 confirms that bearish momentum is weakening, and buyers may be starting to reclaim control in the short term. 🩶 2️⃣ Supply & Demand Zones – Footprints of Smart Money Karina is currently watching three key zones shaping this market phase: Demand Zones: 3,938 – 3,925: A strong demand base formed after the initial push upward — acting as a key support if price retraces. 3,986 – 3,988: A minor demand zone formed post-BMS, serving as a potential “reaccumulation point” for the next bullish leg. Supply Zones: 4,111 – 4,149: Unmitigated Bearish Order Block from the previous decline — the most probable upside target for Smart Money in the current swing. The projected SMC scenario: Smart Money accumulates at demand → builds liquidity → drives price into the upper supply zones. 🧭 3️⃣ Liquidity Context – Quiet but Purposeful Movement Gold currently sits within a liquidity equilibrium — a transitional area where both buy- and sell-side liquidity coexist. Below, 3,886 remains a pocket of sell-side liquidity, while above, large buy-side liquidity pools rest around 4,110 – 4,150. Smart Money may first collect the remaining sell-side liquidity before triggering a strong upward displacement toward the upper supply zones — following the familiar pattern: liquidity sweep → displacement → continuation. 🌙 4️⃣ Trade Scenario – Flow With Smart Money, Not Against It As long as price holds above 3,938 – 3,987, the short-term bias for Karina is bullish. If price retests these demand zones and forms bullish confirmations (e.g., bullish engulfing or clear order flow shift), it may set the stage for a push toward the 4,111 – 4,148 region. Entry: 3,938 – 3,987 Stop Loss: 3,925 Take Profit: 4,111 – 4,148 This setup presents roughly a 1:4 R:R, consistent with a buy-side liquidity grab strategy under SMC principles. 🌷 5️⃣ Reflection – When the Market Moves in Silence After an extended bearish phase, Gold now seems to be accumulating strength in quiet preparation. This is not a loud reversal — it’s a subtle rebalancing of institutional flow. To Karina, the market right now feels like a slow, gentle rhythm — calm, deliberate, and full of hidden intent. Sometimes, the key isn’t chasing volatility, but listening to the whispers of Smart Money in the silence of price action. 🌸 This analysis reflects Karina’s personal perspective and is not financial advice. Do you see the same structure forming? Could this be the early stage of a bullish cycle, or just another liquidity grab? Let’s discuss below 💬
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Karina_ilina
The correction is over; buy gold on pullbacks.#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD With the White House website indicating the ongoing US government shutdown, the normal release of key data such as ADP and NFP may be affected. The news briefly boosted gold prices, leading to a technical rebound in Asian trading. From the daily chart, the short-term resistance is still around 3980-4000, which is also where the 4H middle line is located. For the bulls to make a full comeback, they need to break through this resistance range and hold above 4000. The current slow and volatile upward trend in gold prices indicates that the bulls still have room to maneuver. In the short term, one can try to continue to be bullish on gold by using the middle line of the hourly chart as a defense. Conservative traders can wait for a pullback to 3970-3955 to try to go long on gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Miracle-Walker_GC