XAUUSD possible movementsGold has already broken its previous high and is aiming to reach 3,600. For this to happen, it must remain above 3.525. If so, we would see a small fall as part of a pullback to collect liquidity and then continue its course towards a new, more solid high. Let's remember that every time Gold breaks its high it gives us a new one by a lot of difference. After its last high at 3,550 it fell back to 3.125 and from that price zone it has not stopped rising. Let's see if it now rises above 3,600 to comply with this regulation and repeat history.
GOLD trade ideas
GOLD: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,554.68 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,569.31.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
XAUUSD FOLLOW THROUGHXAUUSD has been experiencing an uptrend surge for the past 3 days, this has caused the market price to break through our previous daily high as well as get out of our accumulation zone.
This large momentum move has been met with little retracement as it surges up whilst giving us good POIs.
The Fib levels around 50 and 60 has a good POI which the market may retrace into before continuing bullish if this is a valid breakthrough. The issue remains, when is gold going to give us a significant retracement to this level ??
The Question remains, what do you think Gold is going to do ???
⛔️ Content Disclaimer: The information provided in this video is for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this video constitutes professional advice, including but not limited to financial, investment, legal, or career advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and all opinions expressed are based on personal experience and research. You are solely responsible for your own financial decisions. Please do your own research and consult a qualified professional before making any financial or business decisions.
XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy September 3, 2025XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy September 3, 2025: Gold prices are stable, heading towards the $3,550 mark with ETF capital flows boosting and the market is also waiting for employment data and developments from the FED.
Basic news: Spot gold prices remained stable in today's Asian trading session, after rising sharply in the previous session. The current international gold price is around $3,531/ounce, according to CMC Group's FedWatch Tool, the market is pricing in nearly 92% of the possibility that the Fed will cut 25 basis points at the meeting on September 17.
Technical analysis: Spot gold prices continue to increase strongly. The rising price channel remains. Currently, the MA lines and the Fib frame are still very good support areas for prices, however, the RSI is in the overbought area; we should be careful that prices will have a correction first and then increase again. We limit FOMO, continue to wait at support zones combined between MA, Fib and FVG zone.
Important price zones today: 3500 - 3505 and 3475 - 3480.
Today's trading trend: BUY.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3500 - 3502
SL 3497
TP 3505 - 3515 - 3530 - 3550.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 3475 - 3477
SL 3472
TP 3480 - 3490 - 3500 - 3530.
Wish you a safe, effective and profitable trading day.💯💯💯💯💯
GOLD Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear friends,
GOLD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 3546.4 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 3538.4
Recommended Stop Loss - 3550.2
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XAU/USD 22.08.25Gold Bounces from Support: Path Toward 3,375–3,380
Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) tested a strong support zone near 3,316 – 3,320 and showed signs of reversal. This level has once again confirmed its importance, acting as the foundation for potential growth. The market is now shaping a bullish scenario within the short-term structure.
Key Levels
Support zone: 3,316 – 3,320
Entry area: current range 3,325 – 3,330
Upside targets:
3,355 – 3,360 (intermediate resistance)
3,375 – 3,380 (main target zone)
Extended target: 3,400+ if bullish momentum continues
Scenario
Main Scenario (Bullish):
As long as gold holds above 3,316, the short-term outlook remains positive. Buyers may push the price towards 3,375 – 3,380, with potential to extend beyond 3,400.
Alternative Scenario (Bearish):
A breakdown below 3,316 would cancel the bullish setup and open the path toward 3,300 – 3,280.
Gold Approaches All-Time High with Strong Bullish MomentumAnalysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) has successfully broken above the identified buy zone around $3,440 – $3,460, confirming strong bullish momentum. The recent price action shows a clear breakout supported by an upward channel formation, pushing prices toward higher resistance levels.
The breakout above the consolidation zone signals strong buyer interest.
Immediate upside target is placed at $3,550, as indicated by the projection.
The 9-period SMA ($3,467) is currently acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish setup.
If the price retraces, the buy zone ($3,440 – $3,460) will serve as a strong support area for potential re-entries.
📌 Conclusion: Gold is showing a bullish continuation pattern, with momentum favoring an upside move toward $3,550. Holding above the buy zone keeps the outlook positive.
XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs USD) 4H chart.XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs USD) 4H chart. Let’s analyze:
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Current Market Context
Pair: Gold Spot / USD
Current Price: ~3,478.8
Trend: Strong bullish breakout above resistance zone (~3,425).
Indicators: Price above Ichimoku cloud = bullish momentum confirmed.
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Targets Marked on Chart
1. First Target Point (Immediate): Around 3,525 – 3,530
This is the nearest resistance after the breakout.
A likely short-term profit booking level.
2. Extended Target (Major): Around 3,560 – 3,565
This is the higher target i marked on the chart.
Strong resistance and potential reversal zone.
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Trade Plan (Based on Chart Setup)
Entry Zone: Already active around 3,475 – 3,480.
Take Profit 1: ~3,525.
Take Profit 2: ~3,565.
Stop Loss (Protective): Below breakout zone (~3,425).
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⚠ Note: Gold tends to move sharply during US sessions (especially with economic news like NFP, CPI, Fed updates). Trail your stop once TP1 is reached to lock in profits.
XAUUSD (GOLD) BREAKDOWN OR BOUNCE FROM 3469Hi trader's
Gold has recently broken above its resistance and is now retesting the same levels from below. At the same time, the market structure is hinting at the formation of a possible Head & Shoulders pattern – a well-known reversal setup.
Currently, Gold is holding near important levels:
Support 1: 3469 – This is the immediate level to watch.
Support 2: 3452 – 3448 zone, a deeper demand area where buyers may step in.
Supply Zone: 3510 – The next upside level if bullish momentum returns.
⚠️ If Gold breaks below 3469, it could confirm weakness and extend the move toward the second support area (3452–3448).
✅ On the other hand, if 3469 holds as support, the market may reject lower prices and continue bullish momentum toward the supply zone at 3510.
This setup highlights the importance of the 3469 level — it is acting as a decisive point between bearish continuation and bullish retracement
👉 Follow for more safe updates 🔔
❓ What’s your view on Gold at these levels?
Impact of War & Conflicts on Global TradeIntroduction
War and conflict have been recurring themes throughout human history, shaping civilizations, redrawing borders, and influencing the world economy. Among the many areas affected, global trade stands out as one of the most directly influenced domains. Trade thrives on stability, predictability, and cooperation across nations. When war or conflict disrupts these conditions, the impact ripples across supply chains, financial markets, production centers, and consumer behavior.
Global trade today is deeply interconnected, with goods, services, technology, and capital flowing across borders in complex networks. A regional war in one part of the world can disrupt global supply chains thousands of kilometers away. For instance, a conflict in the Middle East may lead to oil price spikes that affect manufacturing costs in Asia, transportation in Europe, and consumer prices in the Americas. Similarly, wars between major trading partners can lead to sanctions, trade restrictions, or complete breakdowns of commerce.
This essay explores the impact of wars and conflicts on global trade, examining historical and modern examples, economic consequences, sectoral disruptions, policy responses, and potential pathways to mitigate such risks.
1. Historical Context: Wars and Trade Disruptions
To understand the current dynamics, it is essential to look back at history. Wars have often determined trade patterns, both by destroying existing networks and by creating new ones.
1.1. Ancient Conflicts
In the Roman Empire, wars of expansion disrupted local economies but also opened up vast trade routes across Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.
The Silk Road faced repeated interruptions during wars between empires, leading merchants to seek alternative maritime routes.
1.2. Colonial Wars
European colonial expansion was largely driven by trade interests in spices, gold, silver, and textiles. Wars between colonial powers (e.g., Britain and France) frequently disrupted global trade routes in the 17th and 18th centuries.
The Seven Years’ War (1756–1763) reshaped global trade by handing Britain dominance over colonies in North America and India, boosting its economic clout.
1.3. World Wars
World War I severely disrupted trade as maritime routes were blocked, naval blockades imposed, and global shipping shrank drastically.
World War II further devastated global commerce. Countries diverted industrial production to war efforts, international shipping was attacked, and colonies were cut off from their European rulers.
After WWII, however, new institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and GATT (later WTO) were established to stabilize trade and prevent such widespread disruption again.
2. Mechanisms of Disruption
War and conflict affect global trade through multiple direct and indirect mechanisms.
2.1. Physical Disruption of Supply Chains
Destruction of infrastructure such as ports, railways, highways, and airports halts the movement of goods.
Example: In the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war, destruction of Black Sea ports disrupted global grain exports.
2.2. Trade Barriers and Sanctions
Economic sanctions are a common tool of warfare today. They restrict trade flows and isolate nations.
Example: Western sanctions on Russia in 2022 led to bans on oil, gas, banking, and technology trade.
2.3. Energy Price Volatility
Wars in energy-rich regions trigger oil and gas supply shocks.
Example: The 1973 Arab–Israeli War caused the OPEC oil embargo, quadrupling global oil prices.
2.4. Currency Instability
War often leads to currency depreciation, inflation, and volatility in exchange rates. This discourages trade contracts and foreign investment.
2.5. Loss of Human Capital and Production
Conflict zones face reduced productivity as workers flee, factories shut down, and agricultural land is destroyed.
3. Case Studies of Modern Conflicts
3.1. Russia–Ukraine War (2022–Present)
Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil. The war disrupted food exports, leading to shortages in Africa and Asia.
Russia, a key oil and gas supplier, faced sanctions, leading Europe to diversify energy imports toward the Middle East, Africa, and the US.
Shipping in the Black Sea became riskier, raising insurance and freight costs.
3.2. Middle East Conflicts
Persistent wars in the Middle East affect global oil supply. Even small disruptions raise oil prices due to the region’s strategic importance.
The Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988) disrupted Persian Gulf oil exports, pushing up global prices.
Recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have disrupted shipping routes through the Suez Canal, forcing rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope.
3.3. US–China Trade Tensions
Although not a conventional war, the US–China trade war (2018–2020) disrupted global trade by imposing tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of goods.
Supply chains in electronics, textiles, and machinery were forced to relocate partially to countries like Vietnam, India, and Mexico.
3.4. African Conflicts
Civil wars in nations like the Democratic Republic of Congo have disrupted the supply of critical minerals such as cobalt, essential for batteries and electronics.
Piracy off the coast of Somalia (linked to instability) once threatened global maritime trade routes in the Indian Ocean.
4. Economic Consequences
4.1. Global Supply Chain Disruptions
Modern trade relies on just-in-time supply chains. Conflicts disrupt these, leading to shortages of semiconductors, food grains, or energy.
4.2. Inflation and Price Instability
War-related shortages push up commodity prices globally. For example, food inflation surged worldwide in 2022 due to the Ukraine war.
4.3. Decline in Global Trade Volume
According to the WTO, global merchandise trade tends to shrink during major wars and conflicts.
4.4. Trade Diversification
Nations often diversify away from conflict-affected suppliers. For example, Europe reduced dependence on Russian gas by importing LNG from the US and Qatar.
4.5. Unequal Impact on Nations
Developed countries often absorb shocks better through reserves and alternative sources. Developing nations, especially import-dependent ones, suffer disproportionately.
5. Sectoral Impact
5.1. Energy Sector
Oil and gas markets are the most sensitive to conflict. Wars in the Middle East, sanctions on Russia, and disputes in the South China Sea all affect energy flows.
5.2. Agriculture
Conflicts destroy farmlands and block exports. The Ukraine war showed how global food security is tied to regional stability.
5.3. Technology and Electronics
Semiconductor supply chains (Taiwan, South Korea) are highly vulnerable to potential conflicts. A war over Taiwan could cripple global electronics production.
5.4. Shipping and Logistics
Wars increase freight rates due to higher insurance premiums and rerouting costs.
Example: Ships avoiding the Suez Canal during Red Sea conflicts pay more in time and fuel.
5.5. Financial Services
Sanctions often target banks, cutting them off from systems like SWIFT. This hampers global transactions.
6. Policy Responses
6.1. Diversification of Supply Chains
Countries are increasingly moving toward “China+1” strategies to reduce dependency on one region.
6.2. Strategic Reserves
Nations maintain oil, gas, and food reserves to buffer against disruptions.
6.3. Trade Agreements and Alliances
Regional trade blocs (EU, ASEAN, CPTPP) help member countries secure trade during conflicts.
6.4. Investment in Domestic Production
Conflicts often push countries to revive domestic manufacturing for critical goods such as semiconductors and defense equipment.
6.5. Humanitarian Corridors
During conflicts, international organizations sometimes negotiate corridors for food and medicine trade to reduce civilian suffering.
7. Long-Term Effects
7.1. Redrawing Trade Routes
Wars can permanently shift trade patterns. Example: European reliance on Russian gas is unlikely to return to pre-2022 levels.
7.2. Rise of Protectionism
Conflicts push countries toward economic nationalism, prioritizing self-sufficiency over globalization.
7.3. Innovation in Trade Systems
Disruptions lead to innovations like alternative payment systems (e.g., Russia’s SPFS, China’s CIPS as alternatives to SWIFT).
7.4. Military-Industrial Boost
War economies often stimulate demand for weapons and defense technology, which becomes an export sector in itself.
8. Opportunities Emerging from Conflict
While the overall effect of war on trade is negative, certain industries or countries sometimes benefit:
Arms manufacturers experience a surge in exports.
Neutral nations can emerge as key alternative suppliers or trade hubs.
Countries like India and Vietnam gained manufacturing opportunities from US–China trade tensions.
9. Future Outlook: Trade in an Era of Geopolitical Uncertainty
As the world moves further into the 21st century, trade will remain deeply vulnerable to wars and conflicts. However, nations and corporations are learning to adapt through diversification, digitalization, and regional integration.
Key trends likely to shape the future include:
Regionalization of Trade – More trade within blocs (EU, ASEAN, BRICS) to reduce vulnerability.
Digital Trade – Growth of services, e-commerce, and remote business that are less affected by physical conflict.
Geoeconomic Competition – Nations will increasingly use trade as a tool of geopolitical rivalry, blending economics with national security.
Sustainability and Resilience – Greater emphasis on secure, sustainable supply chains over efficiency alone.
Conclusion
War and conflicts have always been among the most powerful disruptors of global trade. From the ancient Silk Road to modern semiconductor supply chains, conflicts reshape how nations exchange goods, services, and capital. While globalization has created unprecedented interdependence, it has also heightened vulnerability to disruptions.
The impact of wars on trade manifests in multiple ways: supply chain breakdowns, sanctions, energy crises, food insecurity, financial instability, and long-term shifts in trade patterns. The Russia–Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts, and US–China tensions are clear reminders that political instability in one region can send economic shockwaves worldwide.
However, trade is also resilient. Nations adapt by diversifying partners, building reserves, and investing in domestic capacity. The challenge for policymakers and businesses is to strike a balance between efficiency and resilience, ensuring that global trade continues even in times of uncertainty.
Ultimately, peace remains the greatest enabler of global commerce. As history shows, stable political relations foster economic prosperity, while wars not only destroy lives but also weaken the very foundation of global trade that supports human development.
XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis 3rd Sept 2025Asset Class: XAUUSD (Gold)
Opening Price: 3,530 (as of September 3, 2025, 2:00 AM UTC+4)
Market Context Analysis
Gold has recently reached fresh all-time highs, driven by a combination of factors. The primary catalyst appears to be expectations of an impending Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with the market pricing in a high probability (nearly 90%) of a 25 basis point reduction in September. Historically, Gold tends to perform well during periods of decreasing interest rates.
Adding to the bullish momentum is the role of Gold as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty. Discussions surrounding the Fed's independence, fueled by statements from Donald Trump, along with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, are increasing demand for Gold. The weakening US Dollar also contributes to Gold's strength, as it makes the metal more attractive to international buyers and reduces the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
Central banks, particularly those in emerging markets, are also actively accumulating Gold reserves to diversify away from the US Dollar and mitigate potential risks. This institutional demand provides further underlying support for the Gold price. However, some analysts note that the rally has been significant, and a short-term correction remains a possibility due to overbought conditions and potential profit-taking.
Technical Analysis
Based on the provided information and market observations:
Trend: The overall trend for XAUUSD is strongly bullish across multiple timeframes. Gold has experienced significant upward momentum, breaking above major resistance levels.
Key Resistance: The major psychological level of $3,500 has been a significant point of interest, according to multiple TradingView analyses. While price has briefly surpassed this level, sustained bullish momentum will require a confirmed breakout above this zone.
Key Support: Several TradingView analyses suggest key support levels around $3,410 - $3,430 (which was previously resistance), along with lower support zones at $3,370 - $3,360 and $3,314 - $3,320. A potential pullback to these levels could present buying opportunities.
Indicators:
Moving Averages: The configuration of moving averages indicates a bullish trend, with shorter-term averages above longer-term ones.
RSI: The Relative Strength Index is showing overbought conditions on the 4-hour chart, suggesting potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation. However, in a strong bullish trend, overbought conditions can persist.
Chart Patterns: An ascending triangle pattern has been observed on Gold charts, which, if broken decisively to the upside, could signal further bullish continuation. A symmetrical triangle breakout has also been noted, suggesting a new bullish wave.
Trading Strategy & Levels for September 3, 2025
Trading Timeframes: Intraday (5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 4h) and Swing (4h, Daily, Weekly, Monthly)
Strategy Bias: Primarily bullish on pullbacks to support levels.
Intraday Trading Strategy (5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 4h):
Bullish Scenario:
Entry: Look for buying opportunities if Gold pulls back to the $3,490 - $3,480 support zone and shows signs of stabilization. A further dip towards $3,470 - $3,460 could also be considered a buying zone.
Target: Initial upside targets would be $3,530 - $3,540, with potential to reach $3,570 or even higher if momentum continues after a breakout.
Risk: Set a stop-loss below the relevant support level to manage risk effectively. For instance, if entering at $3,490, a stop-loss below $3,475 might be appropriate.
Bearish Scenario (Counter-trend/Short-term pullback):
Entry: Consider short positions only as short-term counter-trend trades. If the price reaches $3,530 - $3,540 or $3,570 resistance and shows signs of weakness (e.g., long upper shadows on candlesticks, bearish reversal patterns).
Target: Aim for targets around $3,500 - $3,510.
Risk: Place a tight stop-loss above the resistance level, for instance, above $3,560.
Swing Trading Strategy (4h, Daily, Weekly, Monthly):
Overall Outlook: The medium-to-long-term trend remains bullish, supported by strong fundamentals.
Entry: Focus on buying opportunities during deeper pullbacks to stronger support zones, potentially utilizing the 4-hour, daily, or weekly charts for confirmation.
Target: Look for potential targets towards the $3,600 and possibly $3,700 - $3,900 range in the medium term, especially if the $3,500 level is decisively breached and sustained.
Risk Management: Prioritize risk management with proper position sizing (e.g., risking no more than 1-2% of the account per trade) and set appropriate stop-loss levels based on key technical levels or ATR multiples.
Risks and Considerations
Market Volatility: Increased volatility around key economic data releases and geopolitical events is expected.
Overbought Conditions: The current overbought condition on indicators like the RSI suggests a possible near-term pullback or consolidation.
Fed Policy Shift: Any unexpected shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance could significantly impact Gold prices.
Geopolitical Developments: Changes in geopolitical tensions (de-escalation or further escalation) will influence Gold's safe-haven appeal.
Risk Management: Strict adherence to a well-defined risk management plan is crucial given the current market dynamics. Avoid chasing the market, especially when prices are at or near record highs.
Disclaimer: This technical analysis and trading strategy forecast for XAUUSD (Gold) is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It is essential to conduct your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.