BULLISH OUTLOOK FOR GOLD. DAILY OUTLOOK Price has successful exhausted a wave3 momentum. We want to see a correction to give a three wave count to signal a buy continuation.
GOLD trade ideas
Gold Focuses on Target $3,650
Gold Weekly Review: Non-farm Payrolls Boost Gold Prices, Focusing on Target $3,650
The gold market continued its bullish momentum this past week. A brief negative correction on Thursday did not alter the market's tone. Driven by weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, gold prices surged to $3,600 in the evening, continuing its recent strong upward trend.
Technically, gold prices have maintained a similar trend this week: rising in the morning, correcting or consolidating in the European session, and then rising again in the evening. Friday's market performance perfectly replicated this pattern. Although the market attempted short positions above $3,550 before the non-farm payrolls release, anticipating a correction in the European session, the pullback in the European session was limited, demonstrating a clear resistance to the downside, which set the stage for a rally in the evening.
Fundamentals and Data Resonate
Friday's US non-farm payroll data, which fell short of market expectations, provided fresh impetus for gold bulls. The data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its accommodative policy, and the pressure on the US dollar created a favorable environment for dollar-denominated gold. The synergistic effect of data and technical analysis ultimately drove gold prices to break through key resistance levels.
Technical Structure Remains Intact
From a technical perspective, gold prices rose $267 this week from $3311 to $3578. The subsequent $67 pullback represented only 25% of this gain. After finding support at the 0.618 golden ratio level near 3511, the price quickly rebounded. This pullback is normal in a strong bull market and further demonstrates the integrity of the trend.
Market Outlook and Trading Strategies
Looking ahead to next week, the market will focus on Thursday's US CPI data, which will be a key factor influencing gold prices. Against a backdrop of relatively calm data, technical analysis will dominate market trends.
The current trend is clear and the structure is stable. Next, focus will be on the pace and position. Technically, after a bullish correction, there is typically two to three trading days of upside potential. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect continued bullish momentum towards the 3650-3700 area next week.
For Monday's trading, focus on the 3574-3575 support level. Once this level stabilizes, continue to position long. Even if negative non-farm payroll data leads to a deep correction, downward movement will be limited. The trend won't be altered by a single piece of data; a decline will actually provide a better entry opportunity.
The market always moves forward amidst fluctuations, and clear thinking, comprehensive planning, and strict risk control are the keys to stable profits in the gold market. In the current clear bullish trend, following the trend is the best option.
XAUUSD POSSIBLE OUTCOMES As we head into the second half of the month, gold is at a make-or-break point.
Key zone to watch: 3653 – 3658
If price breaks above this zone, we could see a push toward 3700.
If price fails to break through, be ready for a drop toward 3600 and possibly 3585 support levels.
Stay alert, follow what the price action is telling us, and remember — #MindfulPips is the way to go!
Gold Bullish trend My week's outlook on the smaller time frames, is price to retrace back to levels of resistance and move on to make higher highs and higher low
s to continue the bullish move
GOLD 5-Minute Smart Money Analysis (Bearish Setup)🔸 OB M5 (Order Block) – A supply zone around 3,652–3,654. This is where institutional sellers may re-enter. Price is expected to retrace here before dropping again.
💧 Liquidity Level marked at 3,638.253 – below recent lows. This is where many stop-loss orders are likely placed. Smart money often targets these zones to fuel bigger moves.
⚙️ Trade Setup Idea
🔄 Wait for price to retrace into OB M5 (yellow zone)
🔻 Look for bearish confirmation (e.g., bearish engulfing or market structure shift)
🎯 Target: Liquidity level at 3,638.253
🛑 Stop Loss: Just above the OB (low-risk entry)
✅ Current Bias: Bearish
As long as price stays below the OB zone, we favor shorts. Break above OB invalidates this setup
Gold Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Ahead of Potential TrendGold is currently trading around the 3641 level, and the near-term price action suggests a mild bullish momentum may persist toward the 3660–3664 resistance zone. This area represents a potential supply zone, where sellers may re-enter the market, leading to a reversal.
Should price action show signs of exhaustion or bearish confirmation in this zone, we anticipate a downward move targeting the 3612 support level — a key structural level on the intraday chart. A decisive break below 3612 would likely trigger further downside pressure, exposing the next support at 3590.
If bearish momentum sustains and price breaches 3590, the 3540 level emerges as the next significant support, where buyers may look to defend the medium-term trend.
⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch:
US Dollar Index (DXY) – Strength could cap gold upside.
US CPI / Fed Announcements – Any hawkish surprise may invalidate bullish setups.
Geopolitical News – Gold tends to react sharply to risk-off sentime
Gold Price Analysis September 12Gold continues to maintain a strong upward momentum in recent sessions and has not yet shown clear signs of a significant correction. Today's strategy still prioritizes looking for buying opportunities, especially in breakout areas - where buyers' money is waiting to push prices to the historical peak (ATH).
In the Tokyo session, the price broke the downtrend line on the H1 frame and completed the DOW pattern, opening up new upward momentum with a target of 3690.
📌 Important observation area:
Key Level 3340: If the price closes below this area, selling pressure will return and the market may enter short-term corrections.
📈 Trading strategy:
BUY at the newly formed DOW area
BUY when the price rejects support at 3640
BUY DCA when breaking resistance at 3660
🎯 Target: 3690
xauusdPYTH:XAUUSD the chart is on a short-term timeframe (probably 15m or 1h).
A Rising Wedge pattern is drawn, which usually signals a bearish reversal.
After breaking below the wedge, price dropped sharply.
Now, the market has pulled back and is consolidating around 3645–3650.
Three levels are marked on the chart:
Risk free (~3630) → meaning if someone entered a short trade, once price reaches this level, they can move the trade to break-even.
TP1 (~3580) → the first bearish target.
TP2 (~3520–3530) → the second bearish target.
Overall takeaway:
The structure suggests that the bearish scenario is more likely (because of the wedge breakdown).
Right now, price is consolidating near a local resistance area.
If sellers step in again, hitting TP1 and possibly TP2 is on the table.
But if price breaks and holds above 3660–3670, that would invalidate the bearish setup.
September 11th Gold AnalysisSeptember 11th Gold Analysis
Waiting for CPI Data to Break the Deadlock
Market Dynamics
Yesterday's gold market exhibited typical pre-data volatility. Following a series of emotional speculation, bulls and bears reached a stalemate, with gold prices fluctuating between $3,618 and $3,657 throughout the day, ultimately closing slightly higher.
This narrow consolidation pattern reflects the market's conflicting sentiment: on the one hand, expectations of a Fed rate cut and geopolitical risks are supporting gold prices; on the other hand, gold prices are already at historical highs, and further upward momentum requires new catalysts.
Gold has risen over 39% so far this year, an astonishing performance that makes it one of the best-performing asset classes in 2025.
Focus Event: US CPI Data
Today's US August CPI data will serve as a bellwether for the market. Market expectations are for the unadjusted CPI to be 2.9% annualized (previous reading: 2.7%) and 0.3% monthly; the core CPI is expected to be 3.1% annualized and 0.3% monthly.
This data will directly influence the Federal Reserve's decision at its September 17-18 meeting. The market currently places a 100% probability on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed, but the strength of the CPI data will influence the subsequent policy path.
A strong reading could push gold below the $3,600 support level; conversely, a weak reading could see gold prices test or even break through all-time highs.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, gold is currently oscillating at a high level, with a tendency toward sideways trading. On the upside, watch for short-term resistance around 3,655-60, while on the downside, focus on support around 3,625-20.
The performance of the previous two trading days suggests that gold bullish sentiment is waning. A break below the 3,620-25 support level could trigger a short-term counterattack by bears, potentially testing support around 3,605-00, and even a pullback to 3,570.
However, such a deep correction would require support from negative fundamental factors. Tonight's US CPI data and the ECB's interest rate decision could contribute to this situation, but the market's current dominant sentiment remains focused on expectations of a Fed rate cut next week.
Trading Strategies and Risk Management
Prior to the data release, gold prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels. Consider adopting a light-weight strategy of buying low and selling high, and then following the market trend after the data is released.
Long: We recommend a light-weight long position in the 3620-3628 area, with a stop-loss below 3615 and a target of 3650-3660.
Short: We recommend a light-weight short position in the 3630-3640 area, with a stop-loss below 3655 and a target of 3620. If the price falls below the 3620 support level, you can increase your short position and target lower support levels.
The market is volatile, especially on trading days with major data releases, when volatility and uncertainty can increase significantly. Investors should respond flexibly based on real-time market conditions, ensure proper risk management, and make prudent decisions.
Thank you for your attention. I hope my analysis can be helpful to you.
Pullback Pull-back for short term, buy zone 3620 or 3602, if Gold sweep from 3657 we can see big selling first we have to see consolidation then big SELLING from 3657 for 2-3 week
XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs US Dollar) on the 1D timeframe.XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs US Dollar) on the 1D timeframe.
---
Gold has broken above a long-term descending trendline.
Volume profile shows strong accumulation on the right-hand side.
The arrow is pointing upwards, suggesting a bullish breakout target.
---
🎯 Target Point
The chart clearly marks the target zone around 3,580 – 3,600 USD.
That’s the next major resistance area after the breakout.
---
⚠ Stop-Loss Idea
Below the breakout zone (~3,420 – 3,450 USD) to protect against a false breakout.
---
✅ Summary
Bullish breakout of long-term downtrend.
Target: 3,580 – 3,600 USD
Stop-loss: ~3,420 – 3,450 USD
Temporary Trade Setup at the opening of Monday MarketTemporary Trade Setup for Monday Market
Short Selling
Entry - 3589.67
TP - 3566.7
SL - 3596.99
*** DON'T FOMO IN, Wait until bounce back to Entry Point
Swing TradeBased on 4H analysis
w e have Lower high/Previous high formation within the "Range 3670.9 - 3655.0". It is a sighn where Mkt can reach TP 1 Range 3624.1 - 3620.0 and only when Mkt breakes this range and close below it we can expect a movement which will be considered as retracement.
During the retracement period we can expect Mkt to reach TP 2 & TP 3 Targets. In this TP 2 is solid.
Please wait for Mkt to take a side and take any position accordingly. By today tomorrow we might get a clear idea on which side market has desided to continue.
Gold - Buy or Sell this week??? (08-12/09)With the sustained accumulation over the past five months, gold has experienced a strong breakout from the $3,300 sideways range and reached a new all-time high around $3,600. The upward trend is clearly established. Therefore, we can consider buying and selling at the following price levels:
>>> SELL ZONE: 3684 - 3679
SL: 3689
TP: 3618 - 3596 - 3578 - 3565 - 3515
>>> BUY ZONE: 3560 - 3570
SL: 3550
TP: 3618 - 3678
Have a good day. Good luck buddies! :)
GOLD analysis in time frame 4h
🔹 If price trades above 3595:
• The trend will likely continue upward toward the resistance level at 3630.
• A breakout above 3630 and holding above it (on the 4-hour or 1-hour candle) would confirm a continuation upward toward 3680.
⸻
🔹 If price fails and breaks below 3595:
• The trend will likely move downward toward the support level at 3560.
• This support is strong, but if it is broken, the trend may fully shift into a deeper decline.
⸻
📌 In short:
• Above 3595 → bullish trend (targets 3630 → 3680).
• Below 3595 → bearish trend (targets 3560 → further downside).
XAU/USD Market Outlook – Bullish Bias Amid Rate Cut ExpectationsI am currently analyzing the XAU/USD market, which is trading around the 3642 level. Price action in this region suggests strong bullish intent, with gold consolidating above prior resistance turned support zones. From a structural standpoint, the market is forming higher lows and compressing within a bullish continuation pattern, hinting at potential upward breakout momentum.
The broader macroeconomic environment continues to support a bullish outlook for gold. Growing expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve have reignited interest in non-yielding assets like gold. With inflation data showing signs of moderation and labor market figures softening slightly, the probability of a Fed rate cut in the upcoming months has increased. This dovish sentiment has contributed to a weaker U.S. dollar and lower real yields—both of which are historically supportive for XAU/USD.
Should the price hold above the 3600–3620 demand zone and decisively break through the next key resistance near 3660–3680, we could see strong bullish continuation. A clean breakout and daily close above these levels would likely confirm market intent to test, and potentially establish, a new all-time high beyond the previous peak.
Additionally, investor flows into gold ETFs and increasing central bank purchases further strengthen the bullish case, reflecting strong institutional confidence in gold as a hedge against monetary debasement and geopolitical risk.
Gold continues to exhibit strong bullish characteristics.Gold continues to exhibit strong bullish characteristics.
News Summary:
The market awaits the revised annual non-farm payroll data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, to be released on September 9th.
Several institutions predict that this revision will significantly reduce employment growth.
A significant downward revision to employment growth will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy.
Summary: This revised data may further reinforce market expectations of rate cuts, providing additional support for gold prices.
Technical Analysis:
Gold prices are currently forming an ascending triangle pattern that is converging and accelerating upward.
Currently, key trend support levels are: 3580-3600.
Gold prices have risen for three consecutive weeks and are expected to continue their upward trend this week, with a high probability of breaking through the 3700 mark.
Buying at low prices remains the most stable way to profit in day trading.
Next, we will review several key points to note.
1: As long as the gold price is above $3600, it should be considered a strong bullish trend.
2: As long as the gold price is above $3,500, the trend will not reverse to a bearish one and can only be considered bullish within a wide range.
3: The current intraday trading strategy is to buy on dips.
4: Current resistance levels: 3,660-3,680, breakout target: 3,700+.
5: Current support levels: 3,640, 3,620, 3,615, 3,600, 3,580 (use these support levels to enter long positions and set stop-loss orders).
6: As gold prices accelerate, vigilance is crucial. The risk of a potential waterfall-like market correction is increasing.
The possibility of a significant range-bound correction is inevitable, so risk management must be carefully considered when trading intraday.
Summary: The gold market has shown strong bullish characteristics during this period, with both technical and news factors supporting further price increases.
Short-term traders: We recommend a buy-on-retracement strategy, focusing on the $3,625-3,600 support area. As long as gold prices retreat to support levels of 3600 or 3585 and stabilize, it's time to follow the upward trend.
On the upside, focus on the resistance levels of 3650-3660 in the short term.
Medium-term investors can build positions in batches, gradually increasing their positions as gold prices retreat to key support levels.
Looking ahead, we expect gold prices to rise towards $3700/oz, $3750/oz, and even $3800/oz.
Medium-term investors can keep an eye on these target levels.
GOLD TRADE SETUP CHECK NOW📉 GOLD TRADE IDEA (XAUUSD)
🔎 Based on technical analysis, I’m watching this buy zone:
Potential Entry Zone: 3,634 – 3,628
Invalidation Level (Stop Loss): 3,627
Target Zones (TPs):
✔️ TP1 – 3,643
✔️ TP2 – 3,654
✔️ TP3 – 3,667
💡 This is just my personal view based on chart structure & price action. Always manage risk properly.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational and informational purposes only.
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #PriceAction #TradeIdea
Gold Daily Chart Analysis –> Triangle BreakoutHello guys!
Gold has finally broken out of a large triangle consolidation pattern that has been building for weeks. The price action respected both the top resistance line and the bottom support line multiple times, showing clear compression before the breakout.
🚀 Recently, the price broke above the top line of the triangle, confirming a bullish breakout. This kind of move usually signals the start of a continuation phase with momentum in the direction of the breakout.
Based on the measured move from the triangle formation, the projected target sits around 3,591.60 USD. Price is currently trading near 3,476 USD, which still leaves room for further upside.
💡 Typically, after such a breakout, the market may retest the broken resistance line (now turned support) before resuming its move higher. (but the pullback is not certain now)
Summary:
Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle
Breakout Direction: Bullish
Current Price: 3,476 USD
Target: 3,591.60 USD
As long as Gold holds above the broken triangle resistance, the bias remains bullish toward the projected target.
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Emoji Trade If you look closely the bell emoji is directly on Sunday 6Pm Est NYC time
On the coming candles it will basically stay the same price or go directly up
Tell me I'm wrong or why you think I'm right
Thanks to my friend who made a joke "the emoji strategy😂"
Well I'm making it a thing
🛎️ = open
📊= basically same then up
XAUUSD BREAKDOWN.The price broke our 1h timeframe bullish Channel showing bearish signs.
A break below Support and retest might push the price to 3600 level but A break above the resistance and retest might push the price to 3700 level since we have a bullish pattern inside our channel.
The market might push the price upwards and break above the resistance since the market is expecting Fed rate cuts on 17th September. ( Wait and see approach )
