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Will Black Friday return?
I. Current Market Overview
Gold showed a oscillatory rebound pattern intraday, but the overall amplitude narrowed, indicating increased market caution following previous sharp fluctuations. The price remains within the core consolidation range of 4180 - 4010, suggesting a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces. The evening session saw another upward move, continuing the recent pattern of wide swings, although the short-term corrective trend is not yet complete.
II. Key Technical Levels
Core Consolidation Range: 4180 - 4010
Key Resistance Above: 4160-4185 area (Focus on the 5-day, 10-day Moving Averages, and the 4-hour Middle Bollinger Band pressure)
Key Support Below: 4010-4005 area (Focus on the psychological 4000 integer level)
III. Trend and Structure Analysis
Bullish Scenario: If the gold price can hold firmly above the 4000 level, it has the potential to initiate a new strong rally later, possibly driven by fundamental factors.
Bearish Scenario: If the 4000 level is decisively broken, it could trigger a medium-term correction on both daily and weekly charts, increasing the risk of panic selling and a sharp short-term decline.
Current Bias: The short-term structure shows a risk of the center of gravity shifting lower. Until a clear break above 4180 or below 4000 occurs, the market is expected to maintain a wide-range oscillation pattern.
IV. Specific Trading Strategy
1. Short Strategy (Primary: Sell on Rallies)
Entry Zone: Near 4155 - 4160 (enter in batches)
Stop Loss: Above 4170
Targets:
First Target: Near 4100 (reduce position and set breakeven stop)
Second Target: 4070 - 4050
Ultimate Target: 4020 - 4000
2. Long Strategy (Secondary: Buy on Dips)
Entry Zone: Near 4005 - 4010 (enter in batches)
Stop Loss: Below 4000
Targets:
First Target: 4050 - 4100
Second Target: 4150
(Note: Long entries should ideally be combined with real-time price action, waiting for clear confirmation of a reversal signal before entering for greater safety.)
V. Risk Management and Execution Points
Strict Risk Control: Every trade must have a fixed stop loss of 8-10 USD. Never move or cancel stops based on intuition.
Position Management: Use a batch entry strategy to ensure the risk exposure per trade is controlled within a reasonable percentage of total capital (e.g., 1-2%).
Disciplined Execution:
Wait for signals near key resistance/support levels; avoid impulsive trading in the middle of the range.
Once a trade is entered with stop loss and take profit set, trust the system and avoid excessive screen watching leading to emotional decisions.
Key Breakouts: Closely monitor breaks of the two critical levels: 4000 and 4180. These will determine the primary direction for the next phase.
Summary: Today's main strategy is to sell during rallies towards the resistance zone, while preparing to capture potential rebound long opportunities near the key support area. Within the range, trade by selling high and buying low. If the range breaks, follow the breakout direction. Maintain patience and strictly adhere to the trading plan.

TP1: 4000
TP2: 3900 liquidity zone + Wave C target)
SL:4148
OB and liquidity sweep zone
OBS market in pump snd dump similarly crypto
✅ Actionable Insights & Confluence
SMC + Elliott Wave + Fibonacci: All point to a bearish continuation after retracement.
Dow Theory + Volume: Confirms trend but warns of short-term pullback.
Candlestick + RSI + MACD: Support retracement into premium zone before next leg down
Idea: Buy 1st Sell Second From 4317 …
Idea: Gold 3287.77-3292 level next t…
Marked on the chart minor resistance for gold in smaller time frame. don't be greedy stay with the setups close buying entries. open buy entries once it break the zone.

Idea: The market is bearish, but I a…
