CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ) forum

1. Market Snapshot: XAU/USD & Macro Overview
1. Gold Price & Trend Behavior
• Gold is approaching its best weekly performance in three months, up around 3.1%, driven by intensified Fed rate cut expectations and soft U.S. labor data.
• Spot gold is near its all-time high (~$3,578.50), with recent breakouts of a symmetrical triangle suggesting strong bullish continuation. Measured move target speaks to $3,930.
• Weekly technical structure hints at ongoing momentum, especially if gold holds above $3,430 — support territory.
2. VIX & Volatility Sentiment
• The CBOE VIX index (S&P 500 volatility) recently dropped from ~17 to ~16.4, signaling easing market fear.
• Gold typically rallies on elevated risk appetite tied to spikes in volatility, but recent flights to safety are driven more by macro-political and Fed concerns than equity fear swings.
3. Greed/Fear (Sentiment) Considerations
• Sentiment indices specific to gold such as the Gold Fear & Greed Index quantify market psychology: high fear often aligns with strong gold demand.
• Although we lack a current numeric reading, broad sentiment remains skewed toward “fear” given geopolitical instability and monetary policy uncertainty, supporting further upside.
2. Trade Setup Ideas: Naked Forex Style
1. “Big Shadow” Reversal/Breakout Entry
• Look for a strong breakout candle above the recent triangle resistance (~$3,578). A Big Shadow breakout suggests momentum continuation.
• Entry: On close above breakout level.
• Stop: Just below the breakout candle’s body.
• Target: Using measured move projection, aim for $3,930.
2. “Last Kiss” Pullback Entry
• Should gold retrace to $3,430 (recent breakout/work point), this can form a “Last Kiss” retest setup — a clean re-entry opportunity.
• Entry: Upon price ‘kissing’ $3,430 and bouncing.
• Stop: Below swing low (~$3,410).
• Target: First target back near recent highs; further extension to upper measured move levels if momentum persists.
3. “Wammie” (Fake-Out Trap) Opportunity
• If a breakout above $3,578 fails and quickly reverses, this can indicate a bull trap.
• Entry: Fade the breakout (sell short) once confirmed false break (e.g., close back below breakout level).
• Stop: Just above the false breakout wick.
• Target: Key supports at $3,430 and $3,350.
4. “Moolah” (Breakout Continuation Campaign)
• For momentum traders: enter punching long positions during the early hours of continuation after breakout, especially on global session overlaps.
• Entry: Aggressive long above breakout confirmed on high volume.
• Stop: Below breakout candle’s low.
• Target: Extends toward $3,700+.
3. Summary Table
Setup Entry Signal Stop Target
Big Shadow Close above $3,578 Below candle body $3,700 → $3,930 (measured move)
Last Kiss Pullback to $3,430 + bounce Below ~$3,410 $3,578 → $3,700+
Wammie False breakout reversal Above false high $3,430, then $3,350
Moolah Aggressive continuation on volume Below breakout $3,700+, beyond if trend strong
4. Additional Considerations
• Fed & Employment Data: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed commentary remain catalysts. Continued softness strengthens the case for rate cuts and gold upside.
• Geopolitics & Central Banks: Ongoing political instability and central bank accumulation support sustained demand.
• False Breakouts: With gold near record highs, monitor for bull traps — volatility remains elevated.
📌 GOLD PRICE ACTION – WEEKLY REVIEW
This week, Gold respected major support and broke through resistance near 3580.
The trend structure remains bullish with clean pullbacks giving opportunities.
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 3600 / 3640
• Support: 3550 / 3520
Educational Note:
Price often reacts strongly at well-defined zones — planning around them improves R:R.
As September began, markets suddenly acknowledged several factors previously overlooked, which continue to significantly impact gold. The Federal Reserve is a key player, with its narrative clearly shifting toward at least two rate cuts by the year’s end. This monetary easing exerts pressure on the US dollar’s valuation and bond yields, creating a favorable environment for gold buyers.
In the medium and long term, the US federal government’s growing deficit remains a supporting factor, especially following the recent credit rating downgrade and the potential for more downgrades ahead, which could further drive gold prices upward.
Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions add to gold’s appeal. The stalled peace negotiations regarding the Ukraine conflict and the US’s aggressive tariff policies, now targeting India, seem to lead to more conflict rather than resolution, reinforcing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.
He wants low interest rate.
fight with fed
there is deep ambiguity to understand.
putin also said to target foreign fighter in ukrain.
israel also take 40% control of gaza and try for complete control.
The market may go against your side any time.
in my personal thought.
this week is very important for gold will decide bull or bear.
